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Public.com presents the rundown, your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zaidad Mani and Today is Wednesday, March 18th. In today's episode, we'll preview today's Fed meeting and why oil prices could impact their decision on interest rates. We'll also tell you the latest on Nvidia's attempt to restart sales in China. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out why you might be getting your Amazon packages in under an hour. We got a great show for you today. Day. Let's go. Well, stocks just had their first back to back day of gains since the start of the war with Iran on February 28th. Yesterday, the S&P 500 was up a quarter percent while the Nasdaq was up nearly half a percent. You know, the fact that it took almost three weeks to string together two positive days in a row tells you how shaky the market has been lately. I guess investors are now a little bit less concerned about the situation in the Middle East. Now look, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. There are barely any ships passing through there. And Iran is ramping up attacks on oil infrastructure of other Gulf countries. So things are still escalating, but the market doesn't seem to be panicked about it anymore. What's crazy is I've actually seen some projections that oil could hit $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for an extended period of time. So I don't think we're out of the woods just yet. And that brings us to the big event today, which is the Fed meeting. The market is pricing at a 99% chance. The Fed holds interest rates still steady at 3.5 to 3.75%. But the real focus from today's Fed meeting will be the dot plot. The Fed releases a dot plot once a quarter and it shows where each member of the Fed projects interest rates to be for the next few years. And the economic picture has kind of changed over the last three weeks because of the war with Iran and rising oil prices. Remember, the Fed's job is to keep inflation low and employment high. And right now, inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target and could start going back up again. But because of rising oil prices, and while all that is happening, the labor market seems to be slowing down. The latest jobs report showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in the US economy for the month of February. So all of that is changing the picture of when the Fed could cut interest rates. You know, about a month ago the market was expecting a rate cut as early as June, but now the market thinks we might not get a rate cut at all this year, or even a potential rate hike if inflation heats back up. So this is going to be a pretty interesting Fed meeting. Now, typically the Fed treats oil shocks as temporary, so it might not impact the Fed's decision. That's why I'm really interested to see what the dot plot says. And I'm sure Jerome Powell will get asked a ton of questions about oil and inflation in his press conference today, which starts at 2:30pm Eastern time, so I'll definitely be tuning into that. Also, it's Jerome Powell's second to last meeting as Fed Chair. His term expires in May, so we got to soak this in while we can. I'll recap the Fed meeting in Jerome Powell's comments in tomorrow's episode, so make sure you guys are subscribed to the podcast and tuning in every day. To stay in the loop, let's run through some headlines, starting with Nvidia and China Nvidia has restarted the production of its H200AI chips for the Chinese market after finally getting approval from both the US And Chinese governments. See, Nvidia has basically been locked out of the Chinese market for the past year due to U S export restrictions and also restrictions from the Chinese government. You know, this was kind of a big deal because at one point China made up about 13 of Nvidia's total revenue, and that number had essentially gone to zero over the last year. But then Nvidia got approval from the Trump administration in December of last year to resume sales in China, with the US government getting a 25% cut of the revenue from the H200 chips sold in China. But then the Chinese government blocked the imports. So Nvidia had to pause manufacturing of its H200 chips earlier this year because they were stuck in regulatory limbo. But now it looks like all that's been resolved. They've gotten the green light from both the US And Chinese government, so to resume sales. At a press conference during Nvidia's GTC conference on Tuesday, CEO Jensen Huang said that Nvidia has now been licensed for many customers in China, and they've received purchase orders and restarted production. His exact words in that press conference was, the situation is different than it was two weeks ago. I don't know what changed, but Nvidia getting back into the Chinese market is a major win for the company, and they won't just be selling the H200 chips. According to Reuters, the company is also planning a version of its new Groq AI chip for the Chinese market. This is the inference chip that Nvidia showed off at GTC DC on Monday. We actually talked more about this chip on yesterday's episode. So go check that out if you missed it. Let's shift gears and talk about Disney. They are about to enter a new era. Josh D' Amaro is taken over as CEO today from Bob Iger. Josh D' Amaro has been with Disney for 28 years. He most recently ran the Parks and Experience division, which is now Disney's main profit engine. After seeing how much it costs to go to Disney World, that kind of checks out. The official handoff of power is happening at Disney's shareholder meeting this afternoon with tomorrow will make his first public remarks as CEO. And I gotta say, he's inheriting a pretty messy situation at Disney. I mean, sure, the Parks and Experience division is crushing it. Disney also has some momentum in streaming, but the overall media landscape is not great. People continue to cut the cord, which is leading to a decline in Disney's traditional TV business. Also, people are going to movie theaters less, so that's hurting their movie business. That's why Disney stock is down 50% from its 2021 highs and only up 9% since Bob Iger came back as CEO in late 20. Compare that to the S&P 500, which is up roughly 70% over that same stretch. And then if you look at Netflix, it more than tripled in that same time period. So yeah, I think Disney investors are hoping that a fresh face can come in and re accelerate growth. Bob Iger will stay on as a senior advisor and board member. Let's just hope he doesn't have to come back as CEO like he did back in 2022. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. We gotta start with a company called Swarmer. It's a drone software company that IP yesterday at $5 and closed the day at $31, which is like a 500% pop. And the stock continues to rally this morning. It's up more than 20% at the time of this recording. Now a quick background on the company. They don't actually make the drones. They just make the software that lets operators control entire swarms of drones at once and then use them in military operations. This technology was deployed in Ukraine in their war against Russia to since 2023. Now, stepping back a bit, this is still a tiny company. Total revenues in 2025 was about $310,000. I mean, I know some nail salons in my area that do more revenue than that. On top of that, the company lost $8.5 million last year. But investors are betting big on the upside of the company because of the role that drones could play in warfare. This war with Iran and Ukraine's war with Russia has shown how important drones have become in modern warfare. In fact, Swarmer now has about $16 million in backlog. So it's definitely a company to keep an eye on. Sticking with the winners here. Let's talk about Macy's Shares are popping after the department store beat Wall street expectations on both earnings and revenue in Q4. What stood out to me was that comparable sales grew 1.5% in 2025, snapping a three year streak of declines. Now Macy's is now two years into their three year turnaround strategy, which includes closing 150 underperforming stores and reinvesting in the ones that stay open. It looks like that turnaround strategy seems to be working. Now Macy's did give a cautious outlook for 20. The CEO basically says there are too many unknowns right now between tariffs, gas prices and the war in the Middle east to project a great year. But investors are focused on the turnaround progress and Macy's stock is up around 5% this morning at the time of this recording. Now on the flip side, Lululemon is getting hit this morning after giving a weak outlook for 2026. Revenue growth of the company has basically stalled. It grew just 1% last quarter and profits fell about 20%. And the company doesn't expect things to improve much this year. They're forecasting another year of slowing growth and declining profitability with guidance coming in below expectations. So yeah, Lulu is in a tough spot here. Shares are down around 2% this morning in pre market trading. Quick update on the Lulu situation. I just checked their stock again and it's up 2% now. So shout out to whoever bought the dip in the pre market. Let's wrap the show with the fun fact. Amazon just announced they're rolling out one hour and three hour delivery across the US. Three hour delivery is now available in about 2,000 cities and towns and in some of those areas Amazon will even do one hour delivery. Amazon says more than 90,000 products are eligible for this. Everything from cleaning supplies to clothes to over the counter medication. Now it's not going to be free. If you're a prime member. One hour delivery will cost you ten bucks and three hour delivery will be an extra five dollars if you're not a prime member. One hour delivery is twenty bucks and three hour will be fifty. Fifteen dollars. I gotta say, Amazon has done such an incredible job building out their logistics and delivery capabilities over the last couple of years. You know, they've really spoiled us with this fast shipping stuff. Let me know what you guys think. Would you pay Amazon an extra five bucks to get something delivered in three hours? I hate to say it, but I got a feeling my wife is gonna take full advantage of this. Well, all right, guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. If you did and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. If you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching, and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.