The Rundown – March 18, 2026: Nvidia Is Back in China, This Drone Stock Just Exploded 700%

Episode Overview

Host Zaid Admani delivers a tight, under-10-minute market update covering the day’s biggest stories: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting and how Middle Eastern turmoil is affecting oil and inflation; Nvidia’s long-awaited return to the Chinese market; dramatic moves in drone and retail stocks; and news that Amazon is rolling out lightning-fast delivery for Americans.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Overview & Fed Meeting Preview

• Market Sentiment & Context:
  • "Stocks just had their first back to back day of gains since the start of the war with Iran on February 28th." (00:30)
  • S&P 500 up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%—reflecting reduced investor anxiety about Middle East tensions.
• Ongoing Risks:
  • Strait of Hormuz still closed; Iran escalating attacks on Gulf oil infrastructure.
  • Some projections say oil could hit $200 a barrel if blockade continues.
• Fed Meeting Focus:
  • 99% market expectation that rates hold steady at 3.5–3.75%.
  • “The real focus from today’s Fed meeting will be the dot plot. The Fed releases a dot plot once a quarter and it shows where each member of the Fed projects interest rates to be for the next few years.” (01:31)
• Key Economic Data:
  • US lost 92,000 jobs in February—pointing to a slowing labor market.
  • Inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target and could worsen with higher oil, complicating rate-cut expectations.
  • “About a month ago the market was expecting a rate cut as early as June, but now ... we might not get a rate cut at all this year, or even a potential rate hike if inflation heats back up.” (02:31)
• Why It Matters:
  • Fed usually sees oil shocks as temporary, but this could be different due to concurrent labor and inflation pressures.
• Leadership Note:
  • Jerome Powell’s second-to-last meeting as Chair; his term expires in May.

2. Nvidia Back in China (04:20)

• Story Recap:
  • Nvidia resumes H200 AI chip production for China—first time after a year of regulatory blockades from both US and Chinese governments.
• Why It Happened:
  • US export restrictions had cut China, formerly 13% of Nvidia’s revenue, down to zero.
  • “Nvidia got approval from the Trump administration in December … with the US government getting a 25% cut of the revenue… But then the Chinese government blocked the imports.” (04:52)
• Resolution:
  • Regulatory standoff resolved; both US and China gave the green light.
  • At GTC conference, CEO Jensen Huang: “The situation is different than it was two weeks ago. I don’t know what changed, but Nvidia getting back into the Chinese market is a major win for the company.” (05:35)
• Expansion:
  • Nvidia not only back with H200, but also planning to introduce a version of the Groq AI inference chip for China.

3. Disney's New Era (06:20)

• Leadership Change:
  • Josh D’Amaro takes over as CEO from Bob Iger (who stays on as advisor/board member).
  • D’Amaro has been with Disney 28 years; most recently ran Parks and Experience division, currently Disney’s main profit engine.
  • “He’s inheriting a pretty messy situation at Disney.” (06:52)
• Challenges:
  • Cord cutting hit traditional TV business.
  • Fewer people go to theaters, hurting movie side.
  • Disney shares down 50% from 2021 highs; only up 9% since Iger’s return in 2022 (vs S&P 500 up 70%, Netflix +200%).
• Shareholder Meeting:
  • Official handover happening at today’s meeting; D’Amaro to make first public remarks.

4. Stocks Making Big Moves (07:40)

• Swarmer (Drone Software):

  • IPO’d at $5, closed first day at $31—a 500%+ jump; up another 20% at time of recording.
    • "It's a drone software company … lets operators control entire swarms of drones at once and then use them in military operations."
  • Used in Ukraine’s war with Russia since 2023.
  • Revenue still very small: $310,000 in 2025. Last year, company lost $8.5M.
    • "I know some nail salons in my area that do more revenue than that." (08:21)
  • Large $16M backlog—drone warfare demand is fueling investor optimism.

• Macy’s:

  • Rose after beating Q4 Wall Street estimates.
  • Comparable sales +1.5% in 2025 (first gain in 3 years).
  • The turnaround plan: shutting 150 underperforming stores, investing in those that remain.
    • “Looks like that turnaround strategy seems to be working.” (09:00)
  • Gave cautious outlook for uncertainty in 2026 (tariffs, gas prices, Mideast war).

• Lululemon:

  • Shares dropped after weak 2026 outlook: just 1% revenue growth last quarter, profits -20%.
  • "Guidance coming in below expectations. So yeah, Lulu is in a tough spot here." (09:30)
  • Quick correction: shares had bounced 2% by time of recording (market volatility).

5. Amazon's Ultra-Fast Delivery Announcement (10:10)

• New Offering:
  • One-hour and three-hour delivery rolling out, available in ~2,000 US cities/towns.
  • Over 90,000 products eligible (everything from cleaning supplies to OTC meds).
• Pricing:
  • Prime members: $10 for 1hr, $5 for 3hr delivery.
  • Non-Prime: $20 for 1hr, $15 for 3hr.
  • “Amazon has done such an incredible job building out their logistics … they’ve really spoiled us with this fast shipping stuff.” (10:54)
  • Host jokes about household use: “I got a feeling my wife is gonna take full advantage of this.” (11:05)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Shakiness:
  • "You know, the fact that it took almost three weeks to string together two positive days in a row tells you how shaky the market has been lately." (00:49)
• On Fed Policy Shifts:
  • "The latest jobs report showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in the US economy for the month of February. So all of that is changing the picture of when the Fed could cut interest rates." (02:15)
• On Nvidia’s Approved Return:
  • CEO Jensen Huang: “The situation is different than it was two weeks ago. I don’t know what changed, but Nvidia getting back into the Chinese market is a major win for the company.” (05:35)
• On Startup Hype:
  • "I mean, I know some nail salons in my area that do more revenue than that." (about Swarmer’s $310,000 revenue) (08:21)
• On Amazon’s Expansion:
  • "Amazon has done such an incredible job building out their logistics and delivery capabilities over the last couple of years. You know, they've really spoiled us with this fast shipping stuff." (10:54)

Timestamps of Major Segments

• 00:30 – Market snapshot and Middle East outlook
• 01:31 – Fed meeting preview; dot plot explained
• 02:31 – Shifting expectations for Fed rate cuts/hikes
• 04:20 – Nvidia re-enters China chip market
• 05:35 – Jensen Huang’s quote; Groq chip for China
• 06:20 – Disney: CEO transition to Josh D’Amaro
• 07:40 – Drone stock (Swarmer) IPO explodes
• 08:56 – Macy’s turnaround & earnings reaction
• 09:30 – Lululemon stock whiplash on weak outlook
• 10:10 – Amazon's launch of 1hr/3hr delivery

Summary Takeaways

• Fed meeting is pivotal as inflation and labor market data are complicated by the Middle East conflict and oil prices.
• Nvidia’s breakthrough in China unlocks a major market, with positive signals for both the company and broader US-China tech trade.
• Disney faces a leadership and business crossroads as Josh D’Amaro steps into a tough media environment.
• Stock action driven by new tech and retail turnarounds (Swarmer, Macy’s) show the market’s appetite for innovation—and risk.
• Amazon continues to raise the bar for logistics, with even faster delivery options for US consumers.

End of summary.