The Rundown – Nvidia Shares Drop Despite Blowout Earnings, Salesforce Sends Mixed Signals

Podcast: The Rundown
Host: Zaid Admani
Date: February 27, 2026
Duration: ~10 minutes

Episode Overview

In this fast-paced market update, Zaid Admani breaks down the latest stock market moves, with a deep dive into Nvidia’s stellar earnings and surprising share drop, Salesforce’s mixed financial signals, and quick takes on Celsius and C3AI. The episode also covers a quirky case of insider trading linked to a Mr. Beast employee on a prediction market. Zaid maintains an upbeat, informative tone, offering personal anecdotes and market insights geared toward everyday investors.

Major Market Moves & Economic Sentiment

[00:25-01:50]

• Stocks Recovery:

  • “Stocks rallied for the second straight day on Wednesday with the S&P up 0.8% and the NASDAQ jumped 1.3%.”
  • Tech sector led the gains; Bitcoin surged 5%, crossing $68,000 after a sharp Monday sell-off.

• Monday’s Sell-off Context:

  • Caused by concerns over AI ‘doomerism’ after a Substack post.
  • Market losses from Monday have now been fully recouped.

• Personal Note:

  • Zaid shares: “I loaded up my IRA account on public.com, picked up some IGV, which is the software ETF, and it’s worked out so far.”

• Macro Environment:

  • Ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and tariff confusion following Supreme Court action on Trump-era tariffs.
  • “FedEx sued the government to collect their refunds… more than $175 billion in tariff revenue was collected last year illegally and now subject to the refunds.”
  • Tease for upcoming episode with a tariff expert.

Nvidia’s Monster Earnings—But Shares Fall

[01:50-05:35]

• Earnings Highlights:

  • Q4 revenues: $68B, up 73% year-over-year (beat $66B estimates).
  • Profits nearly doubled to $43B.
  • Full-year 2025 revenue topped $200B.
  • Data center division (AI chips): $62B, up 75% YoY, now 91% of company revenue.
  • “Data center revenue has gone up 13x since ChatGPT launched in November of 2022. I mean, that’s less than four years, which is just crazy.”

• Forward Guidance:

  • Nvidia projects $78B revenue for the current quarter, well above $73B estimated, excluding China data center revenue.

• Stock Reaction:

  • “Nvidia stock did pop around 3% after the earnings initially dropped, but now the stock is down more than 3% at the time of this recording.”

• Investor Concerns:

  • Heavy revenue concentration—“Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon… account for 50% of Nvidia’s data center revenue.”
  • Potential AI spending pullbacks could impact Nvidia’s outlook.

• CEO Jensen Huang’s Upbeat Tone:

  • “He thinks these hyperscalers are starting to be profitable with their AI products. And if that’s the case, these hyperscalers are… going to buy more Nvidia chips to meet the demand for AI.”

• Zaid’s Commentary:

  • “Even if Nvidia reports a blowout quarter, it might not be enough to change the narrative, and that seems to be the case so far.”

Salesforce: Good Numbers, Lukewarm Outlook

[05:35-07:15]

• Q4 Results:

  • Revenue: $11.2B, +12% YoY, beats estimates.
  • Earnings per share: $3.81, beats estimates.
  • AI product Agent Force: $800M in annualized recurring revenue (up from $500M last quarter).
  • “Agent Force is growing fast.”

• Forward Guidance Disappoints:

  • Forecasting $46B revenue for 2026, ~10% growth—no acceleration.
  • “Investors were hoping that AI would accelerate Salesforce growth, not just keep it steady.”

• Market Reaction:

  • Stock initially fell 5% after earnings due to slower-than-expected growth projections.
  • Jumped back up 3% on announcement of a $50B share buyback authorization.

• Zaid’s Take:

  • “I don’t think that AI is killing software companies… but it is a bit concerning to me that Salesforce’s growth rate for 2026 is expected to be the same as 2025.”

Stock Moves: Celsius & C3AI

[07:15-08:40]

• Celsius (Energy Drink Maker):

  • Revenue doubled to $722M, beating expectations.
  • “52% of its repeat customers make five or more purchases.”
  • Shift from coffee to energy drinks driving growth—Zaid notes his personal switch:
    • “I think I’m a perfect example of this because I swapped coffee for Celsius about a year ago and yeah, I’m pretty much hooked.”
  • Shares up ~15%.

• C3AI (Enterprise AI Software):

  • “Getting absolutely demolished”—Revenue at $53M, almost halved year-over-year.
  • New CEO aims to cut one quarter of staff, restructure for turnaround.
  • “Management still believes that C3AI has a place in the enterprise AI market… but investors are bailing.”
  • Stock down over 20%, now trading under $8 (from triple digits in 2020).

Insider Trading: Mr. Beast’s Editor on Prediction Markets

[08:40-09:30]

• Incident Overview:

  • “The prediction market platform Kalshi just busted an employee of Mr. Beast… betting on the outcome of what happened on the Beast game show.”
  • The editor made about $5,400 in profits from $4,000 in trades.

• Action Taken:

  • Account frozen; fined $20,000; suspended for two years; case reported to the CFTC.

• Zaid’s Take & Final Thoughts:

  • “Prediction markets have gotten a ton of flack for being riddled with insider trading… this bust here is pretty small stakes, but Kalshi is trying to clean things up and… send a message.”
  • “I do find it funny that the first time someone got busted for insider trading was betting on Mr. Beast games.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Nvidia’s Data Center Growth:

  • “Data center revenue has gone up 13x since ChatGPT launched in November of 2022… just crazy.” (03:00)

• On AI Hype vs. Reality:

  • “Even if Nvidia reports a blowout quarter, it might not be enough to change the narrative.” (05:30)

• On the Energy Drink Shift:

  • “I swapped coffee for Celsius about a year ago and yeah, I’m pretty much hooked.” (08:00)

• On C3AI’s Plunge:

  • “Just because you have the word AI in your name or you were early in the space, it doesn’t guarantee success.” (08:30)

• On Insider Trading in Prediction Markets:

  • “I do find it funny that the first time someone got busted for insider trading was betting on Mr. Beast games.” (09:20)

Key Timestamps

• 00:25 – Market rally, Bitcoin surges, context for dip-and-recovery
• 01:30 – Tariff confusion and Supreme Court update
• 01:50 – Nvidia earnings breakdown
• 03:00 – Data center revenue growth since ChatGPT
• 04:30 – Investor concerns on AI spending concentration
• 05:35 – Salesforce earnings and share buyback news
• 07:15 – Celsius earnings and energy drink trends
• 08:00 – C3AI’s disappointing report and stock plunge
• 08:40 – Prediction market insider trading: Mr. Beast editor
• 09:20 – Takeaways on insider trading busts in new platforms

Summary

This episode offers a rapid-fire pulse check on US tech and software stocks, focusing on the “Nvidia paradox” (record earnings but a falling share price) and examining AI’s influence on incumbent giants and upstarts alike. Listeners also get actionable context on broader market risks, plus a lighthearted look at prediction markets and insider trading. Zaid Admani weaves in his own investing experiences and skepticism—making the show relatable, energetic, and timely for anyone following markets or tech trends.