The Rundown — October 7, 2025

Episode Theme:
Daily market update with a focus on why the ongoing government shutdown may be fueling a market rally, the NYSE’s $2B bet on Polymarket, OpenAI’s developer announcements, and how AI-driven energy demand is pushing up electricity prices.

Host: Zaid Admani

Main Market Update

• Record Closes Despite Government Shutdown
  • S&P 500: Up 0.4%
  • Nasdaq: Up 0.7%
  • “The vibes across Wall street seem to be pretty good right now, despite the ongoing government shutdown.” (00:47)
• Notable Movers:
  • AMD: +20% following a massive chip deal with OpenAI
  • Crypto:
    • Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,000
    • Ether climbed above $4,700, near its highs
  • Commodities:
    • Gold and silver also reached record highs
  • “Pretty much everything is ripping right now.” (01:55)
• Theory on Shutdown Boosting Markets
  • With the government closed, there’s no new economic data coming out: “No unemployment numbers, no jobs data, nothing for investors to stress over.” (02:10)
  • Investors are worry-free and “just buying everything.”
  • Caution: Earnings season starts next week and could change the mood.

NYSE Owner’s $2B Bet on Polymarket

• Headline: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), NYSE’s parent company, to invest $2B in Polymarket, valuing it at $8B.
• What is Polymarket?
  • “The crypto based prediction market platform that lets users bet on real world events like elections, sport, or even when the government shutdown will end.” (03:14)
• ICE’s Strategy:
  • Plans to become “a global distributor of Polymarket’s event driven data.”
  • Prediction market data could become valuable for Wall Street traders.
• Legitimacy and Growth:
  • This is a huge turnaround for Polymarket — banned in the US in 2022, launching for US traders later this year as regulations ease.
  • “This investment by ICE legitimizes them in the financial world.” (03:38)
• Market Trends:
  • Prediction markets are booming, e.g., Kalshi valued at $2B after record NFL betting volumes.
  • “People love betting on stuff, whether it’s sports, politics, how many days the government will be shut down.”
  • “You can literally bet on how many times Elon will tweet in a week... and people clearly are.” (04:30)
• Takeaway: ICE is positioning itself for the predicted shift in investor behavior toward prediction markets.

OpenAI’s Developer Day & ChatGPT Apps

• Major Announcements:
  • Apps SDK lets developers build real, interactive apps inside ChatGPT.
  • Demo examples:
    • Create a poster in Canva
    • Pull listings from Zillow
    • Queue up playlists in Spotify
    • All without leaving the chat window
  • “OpenAI is now evolving from answering questions and rewriting emails to becoming the interface of the Internet.” (05:04)
• OpenAI’s Vision:
  • CEO Sam Altman: “The goal is to create a new generation of adaptive personalized apps that you can chat with.” (05:19)
  • Developers will soon be able to sell their apps/products with instant checkout inside ChatGPT.
  • Introduction of “agentic commerce” — AI agents that perform tasks automatically: “I don’t know if I want an AI booking my trips or buying groceries for me.” (06:01)
  • Host’s Perspective: Sees OpenAI pushing to make ChatGPT the primary way people interact with the internet, but is skeptical about user experience for certain apps.
• Stock Market Impact:
  • OpenAI’s partnerships have driven surges in partner company stocks:
    • Shopify, Etsy, AMD, Booking.com: “Anytime they announce a partnership, the stock price for that company goes up.” (06:22)
  • With OpenAI private, investors are seeking any exposure they can get. “Maybe that $500 billion valuation ... is justified.” (06:57)

Stocks Making Moves

• Trilogy Metals (+200%):
  • US government takes a 10% stake ($35.6M) as part of efforts to secure domestic supply of critical minerals (copper, zinc, cobalt, lead).
  • Trump administration reverses previous block of Ambler Road mining project in Alaska, labeling it “critical infrastructure.”
  • “I don’t think this is the last one.” (07:36)
• Applovin (Down):
  • SEC investigation over alleged data collection violations, specifically using “fingerprinting” to track users.
  • Applovin denies the accusations, but multiple complaints and short-seller reports persist.
  • The host notes Applovin’s volatility: +300% in 2024, +70% YTD, recently added to the S&P 500.
  • “I wonder if the S&P 500 selection committee is regretting that decision.” (08:47)

AI Data Centers and Rising Electricity Prices

• Electricity Costs Climbing:
  • Prices rising at twice the rate of inflation; worst in areas near big AI data centers.
  • “Wholesale electricity prices have jumped as much as 267% in the last five years in parts of the US close to data center hubs like Northern Virginia and parts of Maryland.” (09:10)
• AI’s Role:
  • “These AI data centers are giant warehouses full of GPUs sucking up power 24/7 to run everyone’s chat, GPT queries and Sora AI slop.” (09:31)
  • Projections: Data centers to use 9% of all US power by 2035 — almost double current usage.
• Potential Backlash and Opportunity:
  • Likely public backlash over higher consumer energy bills.
  • Optimistic take: Could spur a US “energy boom” — more nuclear, grid upgrades, cleaner innovation.
  • Host’s anecdote: “Personally speaking, I did notice that my power bill was up like 10% this summer compared to last year.” (09:57)

Notable Quotes

• “The vibes across Wall street seem to be pretty good right now, despite the ongoing government shutdown.” (00:47)
• “This investment by ICE legitimizes them in the financial world. I think more people are going to be willing to try Polymarket knowing that they're backed by the New York Stock Exchange.” (03:38)
• “OpenAI is now evolving from answering questions and rewriting emails to becoming the interface of the Internet.” (05:04)
• “Anytime they announce a partnership, the stock price for that company goes up.” (06:22)
• “I wonder if the S&P 500 selection committee is regretting that decision.” (08:47)
• “These AI data centers are giant warehouses full of GPUs sucking up power 24/7 to run everyone’s ChatGPT queries.” (09:31)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Rally & Shutdown Discussion: 00:00 – 02:50
• NYSE / ICE & Polymarket Investment: 02:51 – 04:54
• OpenAI Developer Day & ChatGPT Apps: 04:55 – 07:14
• Stock Movers (Trilogy Metals, Applovin): 07:15 – 08:56
• Electricity Prices and AI Data Centers: 08:57 – 10:10

Summary

This episode delivers a crisp market update, explores ICE’s game-changing investment in Polymarket, digs into OpenAI’s vision for ChatGPT as the new Internet interface, and ends with a sharp look at how AI infrastructure is quietly inflating America’s electricity bills. The tone is fast-paced, candid, and insightful – perfect for busy investors wanting not just headlines but the context that moves markets.