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Public.com presents the rundown, your daily market update in under 10 minutes. My name is Zadod Mani and Today is Monday, April 6th. In today's episode, we'll tell you about the latest economic warnings from Jamie Dimon. We'll also tell you about an internal disagreement at OpenAI regarding their IPO. Then stick around to the end of the show to find out how much money the new Mario movie made. We got a great show for you today. Let's go. Stocks finally snapped a five week losing streak last week with the S&P 500 jumping more than 3% while the Nasdaq was up more than 4%. Stocks have been sliding since the war with Iran started back on February 28. But early last week there were finally signs of a de escalation, but which resulted in a relief rally. Now, some of that optimism did fade near the end of the week after President Trump signaled more attacks on Iran. And then over the weekend, Trump doubled down, threatening strikes on Iran's infrastructure if they didn't open up the Strait of Hormuz. So yeah, we're now headed into the sixth week of the war with markets still on edge on what might happen. Now there are rumors that the Pakistanis are brokering a ceasefire that would put an end to the war and reopen Hormuz. So we'll see if that ends up happening. There's still a lot of uncertainty right now. Oil prices are still pretty elevated, trading at around around $110 a barrel as of this morning. But if a ceasefire is confirmed, we could be in for an epic relief rally for the stock market and oil prices could fall. Now zooming out, we did get some good macroeconomic data last week. On Friday, the March jobs report showed the US economy added 178, 000 jobs. That was way ahead of the 59, 000 that was expected and a big rebound from February's decline of 133,000 jobs. So it looks like the labor market is bouncing back and doing okay. Now the unemployment rate did tick up to 4.3% because of fewer people participating in the labor force. So it wasn't a perfect report. Big picture though, I say the US Economy is holding up despite everything going on right now. Retail sales were up 0.5% in February, consumer spending seems to be strong, and manufacturing also had its third straight month of expansion. Now we are about to head into earnings season which kicks off next week, and analysts are expecting the S&P 500 to grow earnings by Fed 13% in Q1 that would make it the sixth straight quarter of double digigit earnings growth. So the next two to three weeks could be very important. So if you're new here, it's a great time to get subscribed to the podcast and tune in every day to stay in the loop. Let's run through some headlines, starting with warnings from Jamie Dimon. You know how I just talked about how the US Economy is holding up just fine despite everything going on? Well, in his annual letter to shareholders, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, reiterated that, but he also said there are some risks bubbling under the surface. His biggest concern seems to be rising inflation. Jamie Dimon warned that the war with Iran could cause more oil and commodity price shocks, which would push inflation higher and potentially force interest rates higher as well. And interest rates going up would be bad news for pretty much every asset class, including stocks, bonds, private market, real estate, you name it. But also keep in mind, as the head of the largest bank in the world, Jamie Dimon's job is to focus on the risks. He tends to be pretty negative most of the time. Now, in the letter, Jamie Dimon also went after the private credit space. You know, private credit is technically a competitor to the lending of these big banks do. So I can see why he wouldn't be a big fan of the private credit space. But he says that the lending standards and private credit have quietly weakened across the board. Now, he doesn't seem to think that the private credit meltdown is a systemic risk, so it shouldn't bring down the whole financial system like 2008 did, but it's definitely worth monitoring. We've been highlighting some of the private credit concerns on the show over the last few weeks, and I think we might finally have to do a deep dive on it pretty soon. Now, the other part of the letter that's getting a lot of attention is Jamie Dimon's comments on politics. He was very patriotic in the letter. It sort of sounded like a State of the Union address. He talked about the US Military, trade policy, education system, even city governance. And there are rumors that Jamie Dimon might run for president in 2028. So I guess we'll see. I mean, he's been the CEO of JP Morgan for over 20 years now. Let's shift gears and talk about OpenAI, because there always seems to be some drama happening over there. Now, we all know about the rumors that OpenAI could IPO as soon as this year, but according to a report from the information, there seems to be internal disagreement on the timing of the ipo. The CEO, Sam Altman wants to IPO this year, but the cfo, Sarah Fryer, has told colleagues she doesn't think the company is ready. So the thing is, since OpenAI is a private company right now, we we don't have a full picture of their financial situation. There are many reports about the company's revenues and compute costs and users. But if OpenAI was to go public, they would have to show all that information. And who knows how the market is going to react when they get some concrete numbers on how much money OpenAI is actually losing. The latest estimates in the Wall Street Journal said that OpenAI was on track to lose $85 billion in 2028, which would be some of the largest losses in corporate history. So how are public market investors going to react to that? A legitimate concern. And I can see why OpenAI CFO wants to hold back on the IPO. I think the bigger concern is that OpenAI doesn't seem to have any clear strategy moving forward. A couple weeks ago there was a report that the company was done with SideQuest to get costs under control. They even shut down their video app Sora. But then last week the company bought a popular tech podcast slash live Talk show called TVPN for over $100 million. Now, $100 million is nothing for OpenAI. They just raised 120 plus billion billion dollars a couple weeks ago, and I'm personally hyped to see podcasters and content creators get the bag. But this acquisition is another example of OpenAI doing side quest again and getting Shiny Object syndrome and not focusing on their core product to better compete with Anthropic and Google's Gemini. And I wonder if Sam Altman might be on the hot seat at the start of the year. Producer Mike's hot take was that Sam Altman might get fired as OpenAI CEO. And I'm starting to think that could legitimately happen now, selfishly, for content reasons, I do hope that OpenAI ends up going forward with their IPO this year because I can't wait to see what their actual numbers are like. Also, if someone from Anthropic is listening and wants to acquire their own podcast, DMS are open. Just saying. Let's talk about some stocks making moves today. Netflix is getting a boost this morning after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to a buy. Netflix shares have dropped more than 15% over the past six months, largely because the market didn't like Netflix's attempt to buy Warner Brothers Discovery. That's mostly behind them now. Netflix got outbid by Paramount. In fact, they walked away with a $2.8 billion breakup fee because of it. And while the stock has recovered from its lows from earlier this year, Goldman still sees Netflix as a buying opportunity, especially with the merger distraction behind them. Netflix continues to grow users despite raising prices, and they're scaling their ads business as well. On top of that, Goldman thinks that Netflix could start buying back their shares for which could also be a big boost for the stock price. As a result, Netflix stock is up around 2% this morning. On the flip side, Carvana is down after bank of America downgraded the stock to neutral and cut its price target to $360 a share. The big concern for Carvana is rising oil prices. Higher gas prices means less discretionary spending amongst consumers, and that's not great for a company that sells used cars online. On top of that, bank of America doesn't see interest rates coming down anytime soon, which makes car financing more expensive, which could also hurt demand. And then on top of all of that, Carvana was already showing signs of some cracks in their business before any of this. The company's retail gross profit per unit dropped more than 7% year over year last quarter, and the stock is down more than 16% over the past six months and shares are down another 2% this morning. Let's wrap the show with a fun fact. The Super Mario Galaxy movie had the biggest opening weekend of 2026, making $190 million at the North American box office and a total of $373 million worldwide. So that was a huge opening for the movie, despite critics absolutely hating it. The Rotten Tomatoes score was like 44%. This is playing out similar to the first Mario movie, which came out in 2023. Critics hated that movie too, yet the movie made $1.4 billion at the box office. I was actually watching the first Mario movie over the weekend with my kids and I thought it was pretty decent. I my kids though, thought it was the best thing they've ever seen. So yeah, kids don't care about Rotten Tomatoes scores and opinions of critics. And it does seem like kids movies based on video games have now become the Hollywood cash cow. Last year it was Minecraft, now it's Mario. Sonic keeps making sequels, and there's also a live action Legend of Zelda movie in the works as well. So yeah, it looks like Hollywood is now trying to squeeze the video game ip. If you saw the new Mario movie over the weekend, let me know what you thought. I'll probably still end up watching it with my daughter over the next week or so. Well, all right guys, that's the rundown for today. Hope you guys enjoyed today's episode. If you did and you have like five extra seconds, consider giving us a five star rating on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, wherever you listen to your podcast. And if you are listening on Spotify, don't forget to vote in today's Spotify poll. Leave us a comment on Spotify. All that engagement really does help us out and it helps other people find the show. Thank you guys so much for listening, watching and commenting. Shout out to Mike and Connor for all the work behind the scenes and we'll see you guys back here tomorrow.
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