The Rundown: Oracle Shares Nosedive on Sales Miss, OpenAI Makes $1B Deal For Disney Character Rights

Date: December 11, 2025
Host: Zaid Admani

Episode Overview

This episode offers a rapid-fire update on the latest stock market movements with a special focus on Oracle's significant post-earnings share drop, the new $1 billion deal between Disney and OpenAI, and highlights from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. Host Zaid Admani also discusses notable developments with Eli Lilly, Oxford Industries, and SpaceX—with speculation on Elon Musk’s near-trillionaire status.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Market Reaction to the Fed Meeting

[00:35 - 02:56]

• Market Performance After Fed Decision

  • Nasdaq increased by 0.3%, S&P 500 up 0.7%, nearing record highs, and Russell 2000 surged 1.3% to an all-time high.
  • Despite a 25 basis point interest rate cut (widely expected), there was notable disagreement within the Fed: two officials voted against the cut, one for a larger (50 bp) cut.
  • Jerome Powell, in his press conference, left the door open for additional cuts in 2026, emphasizing concerns about the weakening labor market.

  "There is growing disagreement within the Fed on what to do with the economy and interest rates moving forward. ... Right now, the priority seems to be the labor market." (Zaid, 01:23)

• Powell’s Tenure and Possible Successor

  • Powell’s term ends in May; Trump hints at Kevin Hassett as successor, who’s considered dovish on future rate cuts.

• Tough Choices for the Fed

  • Balancing rising, “sticky” inflation and a weakening job market puts the Fed in a difficult position.

• Caution on Short-Term Gains

  • Current market bump may not last—previous Fed meetings have seen post-announcement rallies followed by prolonged declines.

2. Oracle Earnings: Shares Plummet on Missed Revenue & Rising Costs

[02:57 - 04:47]

• Earnings Miss and Fallout

  • Oracle’s cloud revenues rose 34% to $8B, and its AI-focused cloud infrastructure segment soared 68% to $4.1B—both below analyst expectations.
  • Stock dropped 15% in the morning and is down over 40% from September highs.

• Concerns Over AI Investment Payoff

  • Investors uneasy about massive capital expenditures: $50B now projected for this fiscal year (up $15B since September), mainly for AI infrastructure.
  • Free cash flow was negative $10B last quarter; debt has ballooned past $106B.

• Reliance on Major Customers

  • RPO (remaining performance obligation) rose to $523B, 5x year-over-year, driven by deals with Meta, Nvidia, and especially OpenAI.
  • OpenAI’s commitment is enormous—up to $300B over five years—but heavy dependency on one partner is risky.

  "Oracle was really the first big tech company to take on a ton for their AI investments. ... The vibe has definitely shifted." (Zaid, 04:34)

• Upcoming Deep Dive

  • Promise to examine Oracle’s business in greater depth on the weekend episode.

3. Disney and OpenAI: A $1 Billion Content & Licensing Deal

[04:47 - 06:02]

• Deal Details

  • Disney invests $1B in OpenAI and licenses character rights for AI-generated videos on the OpenAI Sora app.
  • Users can soon create AI videos with Disney properties: Mickey Mouse, Marvel, Pixar, Star Wars, and more.

• Mixed Feelings About Brand Impact

  • Zaid expresses both personal enthusiasm and surprise at Disney’s willingness to allow mass AI generation of its IP, raising concerns about brand dilution.
  • Wonders if Disney will monetize these creations or if the move is about maintaining control as AI use becomes inevitable.

  "Maybe Disney's going to start charging people money to make AI videos of their IP, but I don't think the trade off would be worth it." (Zaid, 05:26)

• Awaiting Official Word

  • Host notes that details on Disney’s rationale are emerging and encourages listener feedback.

4. Noteworthy Stock Movers:

[06:03 - 07:41]

• Eli Lilly: Surge on New Weight-Loss Drug

  • Shares up over 2% after retetatride trials show patients lost an average of 23.7% body weight in 68 weeks, plus major arthritis pain reduction (63%).
  • Eli Lilly’s pipeline success cements its $1T+ valuation.

  "The success of those drugs have pushed Eli Lilly's market cap to over $1 trillion. And now they're already cooking up something better." (Zaid, 07:01)

• Oxford Industries: Major Drop

  • Stock crashed over 20% after another guidance cut, with management blaming tariffs.
  • The company (owns Tommy Bahama, Southern Tide, etc.) has cut guidance by more than 50% this year.

5. SpaceX: World’s Most Valuable Private Company & Elon’s Trillionaire Trajectory

[07:41 - 09:44]

• SpaceX’s New Valuation & Upcoming IPO

  • Raised private capital at an $800B valuation—now the world’s highest-valued private firm.
  • Elon Musk confirmed on X that SpaceX aims to IPO in the second half of 2026.

• Market Speculation

  • Projected IPO valuation: $1.5T, largely thanks to Starlink’s satellite internet business.
  • If realized, Musk (who holds 42% of SpaceX) would see his net worth approach $950B, potentially making him the world’s first trillionaire.

  "SpaceX gets to the $1.5 trillion dollar valuation after its IPO. That would make Elon's stake worth nearly $625 billion. ... So he'd be like one good week away from hitting the trillionaire status." (Zaid, 09:22)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the Fed’s predicament:

  "The Fed is in a tough spot right now. ... Right now we're kind of in that weird situation where inflation keeps creeping back up ... while the labor market continues to weaken." (Zaid, 01:42)

• On Oracle’s change in investor sentiment:

  "At first, investors were okay with it, but the vibe has definitely shifted now." (Zaid, 04:34)

• On Disney’s AI collaboration:

  "I think as a consumer and a dad, I'm excited about this ... but I'm kind of surprised that Disney is doing this in the first place." (Zaid, 05:10)

• On SpaceX’s IPO hype:

  "Not only is there the Elon factor, but space is a sexy industry in general and SpaceX is the leading company in that space, no pun intended." (Zaid, 08:37)

Important Timestamps

• 00:35: Fed meeting update and market reaction
• 02:57: Oracle’s earnings miss and stock plunge
• 04:47: Disney and OpenAI’s $1B partnership
• 06:03: Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drug breakthrough
• 07:20: Oxford Industries’ dismal outlook
• 07:41: SpaceX’s new valuation and potential IPO
• 09:22: Elon Musk’s path to trillionaire status

Summary prepared for listeners who want market insight, the latest tech/finance news, and a pinch of speculation—with the witty, accessible style of Zaid Admani.