Podcast Summary: The Rundown

Episode: Palantir Earnings Breakdown with Leading Analyst at Citi
Host: Zaid Admani
Guest: Tyler Radke (Senior Equity Analyst, Citi)
Date: November 9, 2025

Overview

This episode dives into Palantir’s latest earnings report, hosted by Zaid Admani with guest analyst Tyler Radke from Citi. The discussion covers Palantir’s stellar quarterly performance, the reasons behind the stock’s post-earnings drop, the company’s growing traction with enterprises, competitive landscape, international growth challenges, and the impact of Palantir’s brand image and retail investor cult following.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Palantir’s Blowout Earnings and Market Response

(00:50 - 03:16)

• CEO Alex Karp declared the quarterly results "arguably the best results any software company has ever delivered."
• Tyler Radke concurs that the numbers were outstanding:
  • Accelerated growth rates, especially rare at Palantir’s scale.
  • Beat on revenue, profitability, future guidance, and commercial bookings.
  • Net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) and deal value grew by over 200%.
  • However, the post-earnings drop is attributed primarily to valuation concerns:
    • Palantir’s $450B market cap vs. projected $4.5B in revenue – “the bar is really high.”
    • Comparison drawn to Microsoft's valuation post-Satya Nadella.
  • Citi maintains a neutral rating with a $210 price target.
• Quote:

  “I think this was a grand slam, if you will, of a quarter. Really not a whole lot to pick at in the quarter.” — Tyler Radke (01:46)

2. Stock Behavior & Analyst Perspective

(03:16 - 04:34)

• Zaid jokes about Palantir trading "off vibes" rather than fundamentals or analyst metrics.
• Tyler notes:
  • This quarter had plenty of "good vibes" for the stock.
  • Citi’s neutral call still signals possible upside but is cautious given market valuation.
  • AI stocks as a group are under pressure from broader valuation concerns.
  • OpenAI’s and government commentary and even Michael Burry headlines add to the volatility.

3. Vulnerability to AI Market Shifts

(04:34 - 06:32)

• Palantir’s exposure to any negative AI sentiment is nuanced:
  • Not tied to infrastructure (CAPEX, GPUs), but instead software "on top."
  • Still lumped in with AI leaders and thus vulnerable to market sentiment swings.
  • Radke is bullish on AI’s long-term trajectory, expects overall AI CapEx and demand to keep rising.
• Quote:

  “I do think [Palantir] would be vulnerable... But I don’t necessarily think their numbers would necessarily fall apart in the same way that some of these other names would in a very downside scenario.” — Tyler Radke (05:41)

4. Palantir’s Commercial Business & AIP Explained

(06:32 - 09:18)

• Despite government contracts still dominating, commercial adoption is the real growth driver.
• AIP is less of a standalone product and more of a broad strategy or "data ontology layer":
  • Palantir connects messy, siloed enterprise data across huge organizations with their Foundry software.
  • Focus on data readiness for AI — a bottleneck for many corporations.
  • Hands-on model — “forward deployed engineers” work on-site with clients.
• Example:
  • Big banks can consolidate and make sense of scattered customer and trading data to drive upsell opportunities and efficiency.
  • Pricing is outcome-based: sharing in the value they generate for clients, not usage fees.
• Quote:

  “They have some very sophisticated ways of doing the data modeling. Some super talented engineers that they'll send to customers... Now, why does that matter for AI? Well... AI readiness, sort of getting your data ready for AI.” — Tyler Radke (07:41)

5. Competitive Landscape

(11:03 - 12:44)

• Currently, Palantir has little meaningful competition at scale.
• Databricks and Snowflake are the likeliest rivals.
• Databricks’ recent federal contract signals competitors are making inroads.
• Hybrid model (software plus services) gives Palantir a head start but others may follow.
• Quote:

  “The reality is they don’t have a lot of competition right now as evidenced by they're the only one accelerating growth.” — Tyler Radke (11:27)

6. International Expansion Challenges

(12:44 - 15:38)

• U.S. market remains Palantir’s growth engine; international commercial growth lags (up just 10%).
• Europe’s slower adoption rate is due to regulatory barriers, conservative attitudes, and perhaps skepticism over Palantir’s US government ties.
• Middle East (Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) showing more promise recently, especially government-driven projects.
• Quote:

  “Europe as a continent just tends to be a little bit more conservative, slower to adopt various technologies. There's more red tape, more regulation.” — Tyler Radke (13:50)

7. Palantir’s Brand, Mystique, and Retail Cult Status

(16:01 - 19:01)

• Palantir’s secretive image and controversial government work limit some international opportunities, but core software markets are mainly in “aligned” Western countries.
• About half the stock is retail-owned, making it more volatile and harder to value— especially during potential downcycles.
• The retail “cult” following adds “different trading dynamics to the stock.”
• Quote:

  “Still about half of it is retail owned... you have a very loyal audience that maybe doesn’t think about valuation or, you know, business trends in the same way as institutional investors.” — Tyler Radke (18:04)
  “When you do have these down cycles in retail owned stocks, you sometimes can get this compounding effect... But conversely... as long as the momentum’s there.” — Tyler Radke (19:14)

8. Conditions for a “Buy” Rating

(20:04 - 21:28)

• For a “Buy” from Citi, Palantir would need:
  • At least 25% upside from current price.
  • Lower valuation (e.g., shares down to $140-$150) plus reliable evidence of continued explosive growth.
  • Not purely a valuation call—needs confidence in sustainable high revisions and revenue acceleration.
• Interquarter checks, pipeline monitoring, and customer conversations guide their stance.
• Quote:

  “One of my ten rules of investing is never change a view just on valuation alone. And so again, if we had confidence that they were going to deliver the magnitude of revisions that they have this year... this would be a buy.” — Tyler Radke (20:46)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• “This really confounded the chattering class, which I thought that was a pretty epic line from the shareholder letter.”
  (Tyler Radke, citing Alex Karp, 01:18)
• “If there was a quarter for the stock just to trade off vibes, this would be the one. And I think those vibes were pretty good.”
  (Tyler Radke, 03:40)
• “Is this just US spyware, right?”
  (Tyler Radke, on foreign perception concerns, 17:02)
• “Clearly the retail investors have experienced, like Karp put it, VC backed returns on this. So it’s been great for them.”
  (Tyler Radke, 17:52)
• “If this gets down to say 140, $150, that would make the valuation side this more interesting.”
  (Tyler Radke, 20:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Palantir’s Earnings Performance: 00:50–03:16
• Stock Behavior & Analyst Perspective: 03:16–04:34
• AI Downturn Vulnerability: 04:34–06:32
• AIP and Enterprise Adoption Explained: 06:32–09:18
• Go-to-Market Model & Pricing: 09:18–11:03
• Competition Analysis: 11:03–12:44
• International vs. US Growth: 12:44–15:42
• Brand, Public Image, and Retail Following: 16:01–19:14
• Buy Rating—What Would It Take: 20:04–21:28

Conclusion

This episode offers a clear-eyed, data-driven look at why Palantir is both an investor favorite and a market enigma. Tyler Radke provides thoughtful nuance—praising Palantir’s growth while cautioning on valuation—while also unpacking why the company succeeds commercially, where it struggles to expand, and how its unique cult status affects the stock. The conversation is rich with insights for both Palantir watchers and investors trying to make sense of the broader AI/software sector.