The Rundown: Palantir Raises Outlook but Stock Tanks, Starbucks Sells 60% of China Business in Joint Venture Deal

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: November 4, 2025
Podcast: Public.com

Overview

In this fast-paced daily update, host Zaid Admani breaks down the latest developments shaping the stock market. The key focus is on Palantir’s strong earnings and curious stock market reaction, Starbucks’ major joint venture in China, as well as concise recaps of Spotify and Uber earnings. The episode closes on a lighter note with Nintendo’s Switch 2 success.

Key Discussion Points

1. Market Overview

• Stock Market Recap:
  • S&P 500 up 0.2%, NASDAQ up more than 0.5% despite many S&P stocks finishing in the red due to big tech strength.
    • “[...] More than 300 stocks in the S&P were actually in the red, but the overall index still finished in the green thanks to big tech stocks.” (01:02)
  • Amazon: +4% due to a cloud deal with OpenAI.
  • Nvidia: +3%.
  • Crypto Market: Recent significant declines—Bitcoin down 15% since early October ("the price is now under $105,000 for the first time since June"), Ethereum down over 20%.
    • “It seems like the crypto market is still a bit hungover from the early October crash.” (01:49)
• Seasonality Note:
  • November is historically the best month for S&P 500 performance (+1% average), NASDAQ (+2% average).
    • “Over the past 30 years, November has been the best performing month for the S&P [...]” (02:08)
  • Personal touch: Zaid notes his birthday falls in November and shares enthusiasm for Thanksgiving.

2. Palantir Earnings—Strong Results, Odd Stock Reaction

[Segment begins: 03:15]

• Performance Highlights:
  • Q3 revenues up 63% YoY to $1.2B; net profits at $475M—both above Wall Street expectations.
    • “The company continues to put up impressive numbers. Q3 revenues were up 63% year over year to $1.2 billion and net profits topped $475 million.” (03:27)
  • Raised FY revenue forecast to $4.4B.
  • US commercial revenue: more than doubled to $397M as more companies utilize Palantir’s AI.
  • US government contracts up 52% to $486M—including sizable Army, IRS, and State Department deals.
• Government Shutdown Impact:
  • Despite the shutdown (now in its 35th day), Palantir not negatively affected.
• Market Reaction:
  • Stock spiked +4% after earnings, but then tanked -7%.
    • “Palantir stock initially jumped more than 4% right after the earnings came out last night, but now it's down more than 7%.” (04:18)
  • Possible investor expectation of an “even bigger beat” considering the rapid share price climb this year (+170%).

3. Starbucks’ 60% Sale of China Business: Joint Venture with Boyu Capital

[Segment begins: 05:07]

• Deal Structure:
  • Starbucks forms JV with Boyu Capital, which now holds 60% of Starbucks China; Starbucks retains 40%.
  • Starbucks receives $4B in cash for brand/IP rights.
  • Boyu assumes operations for 8,000 Chinese stores, aiming to expand to 20,000.
    • “Essentially, Starbucks is handing over the operations of their 8,000 locations in China over to Boyu, and the plan is that Boyu will take over and use their expertise of the Chinese market to improve operations and expand locations to over 20,000 over time.” (05:57)
  • Deal could ultimately be worth $13B with investments, licensing, and equity factored in.
• Business Context and Rationale:
  • China makes up nearly 20% of Starbucks’ global stores, but growth has been flat; same-store sales in China dropped 1% last year.
  • Luckin Coffee, with 26,000+ stores, represents strong local competition due to its scale and cheaper pricing.
• Host’s View:
  • “Personally, I'm a bit skeptical. I mean, Luckin Coffee's essentially taken over China [...] So we'll have to see.” (06:55)
  • Market is also unenthused—Starbucks shares “barely moved.”

4. Earnings Movers: Spotify and Uber

[Spotify: Segment begins 07:32]

• Spotify:

  • Stock up briefly (+3%), turned negative (-1%).
  • Q3: 17M new monthly active users (total 713M), 281M paid subscribers (+12% YoY).
    • “Spotify said they added 17 million new monthly active users [...] Premium subscribers at 281 million, which is up 12% from a year ago.” (07:49)
  • Forecasts 8M new paid, 32M new total users in Q4.
  • Price hikes across 150 markets earlier in 2025 did not drive subscribers away.
    • “The key takeaway for me in this earnings report was that the price hikes that Spotify did earlier this year didn't scare off users.” (08:17)
  • Host suspects something said in earnings call may have spooked investors as stock fell post-earnings.

• Uber:

  • Revenues up 20% YoY to $13.5B, 3.5B total trips (+22% YoY), monthly active users up 17% to 189M.
  • Mobility bookings up 20%, delivery (UberEats): +25%.
    • “By all accounts, Uber's business is doing great. But investors tend to focus more on company guidance, which in this case came in below expectations.” (09:12)
  • Negative: Guidance below estimates led to -5% stock drop.

5. Nintendo Switch 2 Sets Sales Records

[Fun Fact Segment begins 10:00]

• Already sold 10M units since June launch; forecast raised to 19M for the fiscal year (from 15M).
• Despite mediocre reviews and high game prices, sales “haven't hurt” and Nintendo stock is up 40% in 2025.
  • “I'm kind of surprised the Switch 2 has been such a huge hit because the initial reviews were somewhat mediocre. On top of that, the games were super expensive. But I guess that hasn't hurt sales at all.” (10:31)
• Personal anecdote: Host debating buying Switch 2 to play Mario Kart with his daughter.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Palantir’s Surging Stock and High Expectations:
  • “Palantir's valuation is nearly half a trillion dollars, which is pretty wild. And the stock has been on an absolute tear this year. It's up more than 170%. So, so despite the company beating earnings, I think investors were expecting an even bigger beat to, you know, justify that valuation.” (04:32)
• On Starbucks' Strategic Shift in China:
  • “Starbucks is handing over the operations of their 8,000 locations in China over to Boyu [...] and the plan is that Boyu will take over and use their expertise of the Chinese market to improve operations and expand locations to over 20,000 over time.” (05:57)
• Spotify: Consumer Resilience to Price Hikes:
  • “The key takeaway for me in this earnings report was that the price hikes that Spotify did earlier this year didn't scare off users.” (08:17)
• Nintendo Switch 2 Surprise Hit:
  • “I'm kind of surprised the Switch 2 has been such a huge hit [...] But I guess that hasn't hurt sales at all.” (10:31)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Recap & Crypto Commentary: 00:45 – 02:43
• Palantir Earnings Breakdown: 03:15 – 05:05
• Starbucks China Joint Venture: 05:07 – 07:10
• Spotify & Uber Earnings Movers: 07:32 – 09:45
• Nintendo Switch 2 Sales & Personal Reflection: 10:00 – 11:05

Summary Tone and Language

Zaid blends concise, data-heavy financial reporting with a personal, conversational tone—mixing sharp observation ("I kind of want to get one just to play Mario Kart again...") with skepticism and data-driven analysis. The fast-paced style keeps listeners engaged and informed without jargon.

This episode is an efficient yet engaging primer on the day’s pivotal market news—ideal for investors tracking major tech stocks, evolving international strategies, and the surprising resilience of consumer brands.