The Rundown — Paramount Plans Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, Gemini IPO on Deck

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: September 12, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of The Rundown dives into the bullish run for small cap stocks on Wall Street, previews Gemini’s long-awaited IPO, and breaks down major Hollywood merger news as Paramount (Skydance) eyes a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Host Zaid Admani also highlights recent standout stock movers, discusses AI’s impact on Adobe, and wraps up with an awards-season fun fact about streaming services dominating the Emmys.

Key Discussion Points

1. Market Update & Small Cap Rally

• Markets Surge: S&P 500 and Nasdaq both climbed nearly 1%, marking a 24th record close for 2025.
• Russell 2000 Outperformance:
  • Up nearly 2% Thursday, and 10% since July end—double the S&P 500’s pace.
  • Anticipation for Fed rate cuts next week could further lower borrowing costs for small cap companies, potentially boosting their profit margins.
  • “So I’m starting to keep an eye on the Russell 2000.” (01:10)

2. IPO & Meme Stock Recap

• Opendoor’s Meme Surge:
  • New CEO announcement sends shares up nearly 80%, now at 52-week highs.
  • “So the meme stock rally is still alive for Opendoor.” (01:45)
• Figure Technology:
  • IPO closed 24% above offer price; weekend deep dive episode teased.
  • Focus: their business model, revenue sources, and the broader blockchain hype.

3. Headline: Paramount/Skydance Eyes Warner Bros. Discovery

• Major Merger on Deck:
  • Skydance (Paramount) reportedly preparing a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.
  • Would combine two of Hollywood’s biggest studios, uniting blockbuster IP and sports rights.
  • Recent Skydance-Paramount merger puts David Ellison (Oracle mogul Larry Ellison’s son) at the helm.
  • Larry Ellison’s recent $100B windfall from Oracle may bankroll this $40B+ deal (over double Paramount’s market cap).
• If Merger Goes Through:
  • Streaming: HBO Max and Paramount+ could merge, creating a rival to Disney+, Netflix, and big tech streamers.
  • Franchises: Star Trek, Transformers, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, DC superheroes under one roof.
  • Sports: Potentially rivals ESPN, combining rights to UFC (Paramount), NFL, MLB, NCAA, NHL, NASCAR, and French Open (Warner).
• Strategic Timing:
  • Warner’s splitting cable from studio/streaming soon—Skydance wants to get ahead of potential Apple/Amazon bids for the studio.
  • “I don’t see how Paramount or Warner’s can take on giants like Disney, Netflix and the big tech companies on their own. So yeah, Hollywood might be going through a big shake up soon. And it all might be because Oracle stock is surging right now.” (06:33)
• Antitrust Concerns: Deal likely to face regulatory hurdles, but could reshape the entertainment landscape.

4. Gemini IPO Preview

• Details:
  • Trading debuts on NASDAQ under ticker GEMI, IPO priced at $28/share (above the $24–$26 expected range), valuing Gemini at $3.3B.
  • Co-founded by Winklevoss twins (famous from “The Social Network”).
  • Offers crypto exchange services, $21B in assets, and Bitcoin/Ripple-rewarding credit cards.
• Financials:
  • Last year: $159M loss; $283M burned in past 6 months.
• Market Temperament:
  • 30% of shares earmarked for retail investors (potential sign of soft institutional demand).
  • Recent crypto IPOs like Circle, Bullish, Figure had strong debuts—uncorner if Gemini will follow suit.
  • “So I think this IPO will really test the market’s appetite for crypto-related companies.” (09:12)

5. Stock Movers: Adobe & RH

• Adobe:
  • Shares up >3% after strong revenue outlook, boosted by AI integration in creative apps (e.g., Photoshop).
  • AI-infused product recurring revenue jumped to $5B (up from $3.5B last year).
  • “That’s helping ease concerns from investors that these AI-native competitors … won’t just end up eating Adobe's lunch.” (10:02)
  • Despite gains, stock still down >20% YTD.
• RH (Restoration Hardware):
  • Shares down >7% after cutting growth outlook (now 9–11%, was 10–13%).
  • Blames high tariffs (up to 40% from China, 20% from Vietnam) and potential for even higher U.S. tariffs.
  • U.S. housing market cited as “worst in 50 years,” stifling furniture demand.
  • RH stock down over 40% for the year.
  • “A frozen housing market isn’t good for RH business.” (12:03)

6. Fun Fact: Streaming Services Rule the Emmys

• HBO Max leads with 142 Emmy nominations, followed by Netflix (107), Apple TV+ (79).
• Netflix was first streaming service to win an Emmy (House of Cards, 2013).
• Apple’s “Severance” is the most nominated show this year.
• “I feel like Apple’s entire marketing strategy for Apple TV+ is to win these kinds of awards, to be the prestige streaming service.” (13:10)
• Emmy viewership has plummeted (from 10M in 2018 to 4.3M in 2023).
• This year’s host: comedian Nate Bargatze.
• “If HBO has a big night, David Ellison might have to write a bigger check to take over Warner Brothers.” (14:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Small Caps: “The Russell has been on a heater recently. It’s up almost 10% since the end of July, doubling the S&P 500’s performance over that same stretch.” (00:34)
• On Paramount/Warner Potential:
  • “We’d see HBO Max and Paramount+ under one roof. I’m assuming these streaming services would end up merging.” (05:45)
  • “This would be a big shake up for sports as well … they could end up being a rival to ESPN.” (06:10)
  • “I like this move by David Ellison.” (06:30)
• On Gemini’s IPO: “I’m not sure if Gemini is going to have the same first day pop as the other crypto companies, but we’ll have to see.” (09:45)
• On the Emmys:
  • “I think the Emmys are losing cultural relevance. In fact, ratings for the Emmys fell to a record low, 4.3 million viewers in 2023.” (13:50)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:00 — Introduction, Market Recap, Russell 2000 Rally
• 01:45 — Opendoor & Figure Technology Follow-ups
• 03:37 — Paramount (Skydance) Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
• 08:30 — Gemini IPO Preview
• 10:02 — Adobe (AI Impact) & RH Stock Movers
• 12:40 — Fun Facts: Emmys & Streaming Service Dominance

Conclusion

This episode efficiently covers fast-moving market trends, the dramatic Hollywood media consolidation in the works, and the evolving landscape of IPOs—especially in the crypto sector. Zaid’s conversational tone keeps the pace lively, peppering in data-driven analysis and timely pop culture observations (“…Hollywood might be going through a big shake up soon. And it all might be because Oracle stock is surging right now.”). For investors and anyone keeping an eye on both Wall Street and Silicon Valley, this episode provides a whirlwind, insight-packed update on the news that matters most today.