The Rundown: PayPal Draws Takeover Interest, Circle Surges on Earnings

Podcast: The Rundown
Host: Zaid Admani (Public.com)
Date: February 25, 2026
Episode Theme:
A fast-paced recap of major stock market moves and emerging economic trends, focusing on PayPal's takeover buzz, Circle's explosive earnings, and updates from Kava, Lucid, and Apple’s new Texas manufacturing plans.

Market Overview and Key Trends

• Bounce-Back Rally:

  • S&P 500: +0.8%
  • Nasdaq: +1%
  • Breadth: 350+ S&P stocks up, 9 of 11 sectors positive
  • “The vibes were good yesterday.” (Zaid, 01:00)

• Big Movers:

  • AMD: Jumped 9% on news of a $100 billion chip deal with Meta
  • Software Stocks: Boosted by Anthropic’s announcement of partnerships, indicating they won’t undercut existing players
  • “It was nice to see an Anthropic-related headline help the stock market and not cause a crash.” (Zaid, 01:40)

• What's Next:

  • Nvidia Earnings After the Bell:
    • Only up 7% in the last 6 months—investors eyeing “blowout earnings”
    • “I’m really curious to see what CEO Jensen Huang has to say.” (Zaid, 02:30)

PayPal: Takeover Rumors Heating Up

[03:00]

• Stock Tumble: Lost ~50% value over the past year
  • CEO fired after poor Q4 earnings
  • Facing fierce competition — Apple Pay, Google Pay, Shop Pay
• Takeover Talks:
  • PayPal meeting with banks after attracting multiple buyers
  • At least one suitor interested in the full company; others eyeing specific assets (Source: Bloomberg)
• Potential Buyers:
  • Stripe:
    • One of the most valuable private companies ($159B valuation)
    • “Stripe is essentially like a key financial infrastructure for the Internet.” (Zaid, 04:20)
    • Employee tender offer recently expanded financial flexibility
  • Stripe + PayPal: Could be a transformative combo:
    • PayPal still processes ~$2 trillion in annual volume
    • Owns Venmo, the US's #1 peer-to-peer app
    • “Despite all the issues, PayPal is still one of the most recognizable payment networks in the world.” (Zaid, 05:20)
  • Zaid’s Take: “Apple should consider making a move here too.” (05:40)

Circle: Earnings Blowout Amid Crypto Slump

[06:00]

• Core Business: Issues USDC, the second largest stablecoin globally
• Q4 Results:
  • Revenue: +77% YoY ($770M)
  • Earnings per share: $0.43 (vs. $0.16 estimate)
• Growth Drivers:
  • USDC in circulation surged +72% to $75.3B
  • Business model hinges on holding US Treasuries to back tokens; profits come from Treasury interest.
  • “The more USDC in circulation, the more Treasuries Circle buys and the more that they make.” (Zaid, 07:10)
• Resilience:
  • Bitcoin down 50% since October, but stablecoin adoption persists
  • “The beauty of Circle’s business model is that their business isn’t impacted on the price of crypto.” (Zaid, 08:00)
• Expansion:
  • Conditional approval to become a national trust bank
  • Building out networks with 55 financial institutions
  • Projecting $150-170M in non-interest revenue for 2026
• Market Reaction:
  • Stock up 20% at recording, recovering from a 75% drop from all-time highs

Other Movers: Kava & Lucid

[09:10]

Kava (Fast-Casual Restaurant Chain)

• Earnings Surprise:
  • Q4 same-store sales grew 0.5% (vs. expected -1%)
  • FY25 revenues topped $1B for the first time
• Caveats:
  • Most growth from raising menu prices (+1.7% in 2025);
  • Same-store traffic actually fell 1.4% in Q4
  • “Fewer customers coming in, but those customers are just paying more.” (Zaid, 10:10)
  • Zaid calls out potential long-term risk if affordability becomes an issue
  • Management remains bullish: projecting 3-5% growth and up to 76 new locations in 2026
• Market Reaction: Stock up 10% at recording

Lucid (EV Manufacturer)

• Mixed Q4:
  • Revenue beat ($523M, double YoY)
  • But: Burned $2.7B in 2025 and remains unprofitable
  • Recently laid off 12% of US salaried workforce
• Balance Sheet: $4.6B in liquidity—no bankruptcy imminent, but “clock is ticking”
• 2026 Guidance:
  • 25k-27k vehicles projected (40-50% jump YoY)
  • Gravity SUV is the primary growth driver
  • Zaid skeptical, noting investor pessimism
• Market Reaction: Stock down 4% at recording
  • “I actually saw a Lucid driving through my neighborhood the other day... man, it's a nice looking car.” (Zaid, 12:10)

Apple: Manufacturing Moves to Houston

[13:00]

• Headline:
  • Apple to build Mac Minis in North Houston, TX (Foxconn facility)
  • Repurposing a 220,000 sq. ft. warehouse; production starts later this year
• Big Picture:
  • Part of a $600B US investment pledge (in response to tariff relief negotiations)
  • Mac Mini—niche product: <5% Mac sales, <1% of total revenue
  • “Honestly, it’s one of my favorite Apple products. I own two of them.” (Zaid, 14:10)
• Broader Implications:
  • Unlikely Apple will move iPhone or major product lines to US manufacturing soon
  • New training center for advanced manufacturing in Houston—details TBD
  • “Maybe we should change Houston’s name from Space City to Chip City.” (Zaid, 15:00)

Memorable Quotes

• “The vibes were good yesterday.” — Zaid (01:00, on market rally)
• “Stripe is essentially like a key financial infrastructure for the Internet.” — Zaid (04:20)
• “Despite all the issues, PayPal is still one of the most recognizable payment networks in the world.” — Zaid (05:20)
• “The beauty of Circle’s business model is that their business isn’t impacted on the price of crypto.” — Zaid (08:00)
• “Fewer customers coming in, but those customers are just paying more.” — Zaid (10:10)
• “I actually saw a Lucid driving through my neighborhood the other day... man, it's a nice looking car.” — Zaid (12:10)
• “Honestly, it’s one of my favorite Apple products. I own two of them.” — Zaid (14:10)
• “Maybe we should change Houston’s name from Space City to Chip City.” — Zaid (15:00)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00 – Episode introduction & market rally overview
• 03:00 – PayPal takeover rumors & Stripe interest
• 06:00 – Circle earnings blowout and stablecoin insights
• 09:10 – Kava’s surprising earnings and strategy
• 11:40 – Lucid’s mixed quarter and outlook
• 13:00 – Apple’s Mac Mini factory in Houston
• 15:00 – Closing remarks and lighthearted thoughts

For listeners and investors, this episode delivers a brisk, insightful look at major market headlines with clear context and practical takeaways, all in Zaid’s engaging, approachable style.