The Rundown – July 30, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani
Main Theme:
A brisk overview of key market events: the Federal Reserve’s anticipated decision on interest rates, Starbucks’ faltering turnaround, a huge cybersecurity acquisition, and stock moves in Harley Davidson and Mondelez. The episode wraps with a quirky Boring Company update.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fed Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations

• Market Pause: After six consecutive up days, the S&P and Nasdaq dipped 0.3% yesterday.

• Fed Outlook: The Federal Reserve finishes its meeting today. No rate cut is expected despite pressure from President Trump.

  • “No rate cuts are expected. Despite the constant pressures from President Trump, investors will still be paying attention to Jerome Powell's press conference for any hints, winks, or clues of a rate cut at the next meeting.” (01:02)

• Odds & Timing: Markets see a 60% chance of a rate cut at the September meeting; this could shift after Jerome Powell’s 2:30pm EST press conference.

• Tariffs & Inflation: The Fed is cautious, worried tariffs could spark inflation, though recent data shows minimal impact so far.

• Trade Uncertainty: New trade deals and clarity could open the door for a September rate cut.

  Notable Quote:

  • “We'll see what Jerome Powell says and what his tone is this afternoon in this press conference. That'll tell us a lot.” (02:11)

2. Starbucks’ Earnings Disappoint, But Investors Are Hopeful

• Weak Q2 Results:

  • Sales and profits both missed expectations; comparable sales fell 2%.
  • EPS was $0.50, falling short of the $0.65 Wall Street wanted.
  • Same-store sales have now dropped for six quarters in a row.

  “The company's sales and profits both came in below expectations in Q2 with comparable sales dropping 2% and profits coming in at 50 cents a share, which was much worse than the 65 cents a share that Wall Street was expecting.” (03:07)

• CEO Brian Niccol’s Turnaround Plan:

  • Former Chipotle CEO brought in to reset Starbucks.
  • Focus: Cut wait times, bring back the “warmth and human connection” that originally defined Starbucks.
  • Reversing course: Shutting mobile-only stores, making stores social hubs again.
  • Major investment: $500M to boost US store staffing.

  “Brian Niccol is closing down those mobile only stores and said the new Starbucks stores will be an actual place to sit and drink your overpriced milkshake, I mean latte.” (04:13)

• Innovation Promise:

  • Niccol teases a “wave of innovation in 2026.”
  • Despite numbers, shares up over 5% at recording, partly thanks to:
    • China sales +2% (first positive since Q1 2024), driven by lower prices and more sugar-free options.

  “Starbucks' turnaround plan is still brewing. The numbers haven't fully bounced back yet, but investors are giving Brian Niccol time to cook.” (05:23)

3. Palo Alto Networks Drops $25B on CyberArk

• Deal Details:

  • Palo Alto Networks acquires CyberArk, a leader in privileged access management, for $25B.
  • CyberArk shareholders receive $45/share (26% premium).

• Industry Trend:

  • Second massive cybersecurity acquisition this year (after Google’s $32B Wiz purchase).
  • CEO Nikesh Arora calls it “a strategic play to solve the upcoming problem with agentic AI.”
  • Wall Street is mixed: Palo Alto shares down 8%, but some analysts (Dan Ives) are bullish and predict more mergers (Zscaler, Crowdstrike, Check Point could be next).

  “CyberArk is one of the leading companies in what's called privileged access management... They're basically like a digital bouncer for the enterprise.” (06:01) “Some analysts on Wall Street, like Dan Ives, are calling this a home run deal. He says that this could spark a fresh wave of consolidation across the cybersecurity space.” (07:15)

  Memorable moment:

  • “It also probably means we're going to have to do like six factor authentication just to access our work emails at some point.” (07:53)

4. Stocks on the Move

• Harley Davidson:

  • Shares jump 20% amid reports it seeks to sell its financing business for $5B to KKR and PIMCO.
  • Financing arm is 20% of revenue; helps dealers and buyers secure bikes.
  • Core business remains weak: Q2 earnings miss, revenues down 19%, no annual guidance.

  “Harley is struggling to sell motorcycles, but they're still able to make a solid exit on their financing side, which is investors excited and shares are up more than 20% this morning.” (08:47)

• Mondelez:

  • Shares down 5% after 3% drop in North American sales.
  • Company blames consumer anxiety and higher prices (cocoa at all-time highs).
  • Expects 10% earnings drop for the year due to cocoa issues.
  • New product: Reese’s Oreos and Oreo-flavored Reese’s Cups coming soon.

  “Mondelez had to hike prices earlier this year in response to cocoa hitting all time highs… The company reiterated that it expects a 10% drop in earnings this year because of cocoa supply disruption.” (09:40)

  “Before you start blaming GLP1 drugs like ozempic for the drop in sales, Mondelez actually made this clear on their earnings call that that's not the issue here.” (10:09)

5. Fun Fact: Elon Musk’s Boring Company Heads to Nashville

• Project News:

  • Boring Company plans a 10-mile tunnel from downtown Nashville to the airport (pending approval).
  • Could open as soon as Fall 2026.

  “Elon Musk is Boring company is set to build tunnels under Nashville... the tunnel could be ready as soon as fall of 2026, which is a pretty quick turnaround.” (11:15)

  • Little success so far (only Las Vegas tunnel operational, which just uses human-driven Teslas).

  Host’s dry humor:

  • “They're not even self driving yet. So I don't know why they couldn't have just gone with a conventional metro system or monorail.” (12:11)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On the Starbucks turnaround:

  • “I know it might be hard to believe for some of the younger people out there, but Starbucks used to be a spot that I used to go hang out with my friends after school. That's definitely not the case anymore and Brian Niccol is trying to bring that back.” (03:55)

• On the state of cybersecurity:

  • “I think these companies are betting that cybersecurity is going to become even more crucial as cyber attacks increase in the age of AI.” (06:38)

• On Mondelez’s struggles:

  • “It just seems like people are cutting back on buying Oreos because of the economy, but they are hoping that a new collab with Hershey's can sweeten things up this fall.” (10:18)

• On the Boring Company’s record:

  • “The Boring Company is probably the least talked about of Elon's companies. And it's probably because the company hasn't had much success since they launched back in 2017.” (11:37)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed outlook/previews: 00:30–02:30
• Starbucks earnings/deep dive: 03:00–05:30
• Palo Alto Networks acquisition: 06:00–08:00
• Stocks moving (Harley Davidson & Mondelez): 08:30–10:45
• Boring Company and fun fact close: 11:10–12:30

Summary in a Nutshell

This episode captures an inflection point: The Fed could soon blink on rates if the inflation/trade picture continues to clear up. Starbucks is revamping, banking on nostalgia and human touch, though evidence of real turnaround is elusive. Palo Alto splurges to defend against AI-driven threats, but not all investors are convinced. Classic brands like Harley Davidson and Mondelez face shifting consumer habits, rising costs, and try bold pivots or sweet collaborations to stem the tide. And in Elon’s underworld, a literal tunnel to the future may soon run under Nashville.

Tone: Wry, breezy, informed—Zaid Admani peppers the headlines with humor and skepticism, always keeping the focus firmly on what matters for investors.