The Rundown – Supreme Court Blocks Trump's Tariffs, Nvidia Scraps $100B OpenAI Investment
Podcast: The Rundown
Host: Zaid Admani
Date: February 20, 2026
Episode Focus: Market impacts from Supreme Court ruling on Trump-era tariffs, major changes in Nvidia-OpenAI partnership, headlines on earnings and private credit, plus a look at hedge fund manager pay.
Episode Overview
This episode delivers a rapid-fire update on big moves in the markets and key economic news, focusing on:
- The Supreme Court’s decision against Trump’s tariffs
- Changes to Nvidia’s planned investment in OpenAI
- Private credit jitters led by Blue Owl Capital
- Standout earnings from Opendoor and Newmont
- How much hedge fund managers made in 2025
Key Themes & Discussion Points
1. Market Sell-Off & Geopolitics (00:28)
- Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped around 0.3% on rising geopolitical tensions.
- Investors are watching closely as the US increases its military presence in the Middle East, with rumors of a potential strike on Iran.
- Host’s Reflection: “We've seen this before. Remember last summer there was a similar headline...the markets freaked out for a couple of days, but then things cooled off.” (00:51)
- Tensions threaten the Strait of Hormuz—20 million barrels of oil flow daily; any disruptions could rattle the global economy.
- Oil prices have risen 10% in the past month alone.
2. Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump Tariffs (02:08)
- Major breaking news: The Supreme Court ruled President Trump exceeded his authority by using the Economic Emergency Powers Law to levy reciprocal tariffs.
- “Those tariffs are illegal… we were waiting for this decision for weeks now and we finally got it.” (02:21)
- About 70% of the tariffs affected were tied to the law now invalidated.
- Question lingers on how markets and Trump will respond, given tariffs were a core part of his economic policy.
3. Earnings Season Preview – Focus on Nvidia & Salesforce (03:15)
- Next week is important: Nvidia reports Wednesday after the close, amid shifting sentiment around AI spending.
- Salesforce also reports; it's been hard hit during the software stock sell-off this year.
4. Nvidia–OpenAI Deal Restructured (04:10)
- The much-hyped $100B Nvidia-OpenAI partnership announced last September is off.
- Instead, Nvidia will invest $30B in OpenAI for straight equity—no multi-year or chip purchase commitments.
- OpenAI’s new funding round targets over $100B, with a $730B valuation.
- “OpenAI seems to have no problems raising money right now… Likely means they're gonna be buying more Nvidia chips.” (05:00)
5. Private Credit Worries – Blue Owl Capital (06:00)
- Blue Owl Capital, a major private credit player, froze withdrawals from one retail-focused fund amid high redemption demands.
- Crash course on private credit: Non-bank firms lend directly to companies (e.g., Blue Owl, Apollo, KKR).
- Industry is now $3T in size—popular for AI infrastructure funding.
- Risks Highlighted: “These private credit loans…can be hard to sell quickly. So when a ton of investors try to cash out… it can be a problem.” (06:40)
- Blue Owl’s stock dropped 6%; competitors fell around 5%. Some fear this is a “canary in the coal mine” for a potential private credit bubble.
- Host’s take: “Who knows, maybe there’ll be a movie about it someday with Margot Robbie explaining what private credit actually is.” (07:10)
6. Stocks On The Move (07:18)
Opendoor
- Surged 15% after strong Q4: $736M revenue (+46% home purchases QoQ, +23% faster home sales).
- Still unprofitable, but management expects profitability by year’s end.
Newmont
- Despite doubling profits and exceeding Q4 expectations, shares dropped 3% on weak 2026 gold production guidance.
- “You think with gold sitting at above $5,000 an ounce… they’d be printing money. And to be fair, they are.” (08:25)
- CEO insists focus is on margins over chasing volume.
7. Hedge Fund Managers' 2025 Pay (09:00)
- 2025: best hedge fund year since 2009; 12.6% average gain (but still behind S&P’s 18%).
- Steve Cohen (0.72) topped the pay list: $3.4B personally; David Tepper (3.2B) second.
- Amusing aside: “My biggest takeaway is…hedge fund managers make for pretty bad sports team owners.” (09:18)
- Remark: Wild to make billions “while still underperforming the S&P pretty much every year.” (09:25)
Notable Quotes
- “This news just broke like three minutes ago and we'll see how the markets end up reacting to it.” – Zaid Admani (02:33)
- “OpenAI plans to use the money to build out its computing capacity, which likely means they're going to be buying more Nvidia chips. So I'm sure Nvidia will see that money come back to them pretty soon.” – Zaid (05:10)
- “These private credit loans inside these funds are long term loans… when a ton of investors try to cash out at the same time, it can be a problem.” – Zaid (06:40)
- “They want to focus more on margins over volume. Seems like a smart business decision, but that was disappointing for investors.” – Zaid (08:45)
- “It's also pretty wild that you can make all that money while still underperforming the S&P pretty much every year.” – Zaid (09:25)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Market Geopolitics & Oil: 00:28 – 02:03
- Supreme Court Blocks Tariffs: 02:08 – 03:15
- Earnings Season Lookahead: 03:15 – 04:03
- Nvidia-OpenAI Deal Update: 04:10 – 06:00
- Blue Owl / Private Credit Worries: 06:00 – 07:18
- Opendoor & Newmont Results: 07:18 – 09:00
- Hedge Fund Manager Earnings (Fun Fact): 09:00 – 09:25
Tone and Style
The host balances a brisk, informative pace with conversational humor and a tendency to demystify complex market updates for everyday investors (“Who knows, maybe there’ll be a movie…with Margot Robbie explaining private credit”). The show is rich in concise analysis, timely news, and pop culture references.
For Listeners Who Missed It
This episode covers real-time market drivers (geopolitics, high court rulings, major corporate deals), contextualizes the shockwaves in private credit, gives sharp summaries of headline earnings movers, and ends with an entertaining fact about hedge fund riches—making it an efficient, news-packed listen for any investor.