Podcast Summary: The Rundown – "The Biggest Questions Facing Markets in 2026"
Date: December 28, 2025
Host: Zaid Admani
Guest: Jason Ware, Chief Investment Officer, Albion Financial
Episode Overview
In this concise, high-impact daily market update, Zaid Admani and Jason Ware dive into the remarkable resilience of the 2025 stock market, dominated by AI, geopolitics, and tariffs. The conversation centers on what will drive markets in 2026—from AI’s staying power and the fate of mega-cap tech to the evolving political and economic landscape, including tariffs, the Fed, IPO optimism, and surprising asset class performances.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. 2025 Market Resilience and Performance
[00:11 – 01:34]
- Despite headline risks, volatility, tariffs, and geopolitical turmoil, the market hit all-time highs and is set for a third consecutive year of double-digit gains.
- Core Drivers:
- Strong economy; notable Q3 GDP at 4.3% and robust earnings growth (~13%).
- Inflation remained tame, despite initial tariff concerns.
- The Federal Reserve is back in easing mode, setting a positive backdrop for equities.
Notable Quote:
“At the end of the day, it’s just that simple. We’ve had an economy that’s been resilient... earnings have been good... and we have inflation that’s behaving.” — Jason Ware [00:36]
2. The AI Trade: Bubble or Early Innings?
[01:34 – 05:12]
- The AI theme overpowered other narratives mid-year, with huge investor focus and capital expenditures.
- Ware dismisses concerns about a fading “AI trade,” citing continued demand for compute, ongoing infrastructure build-out, and long runway ahead.
- He describes periodic skepticism (“Deep Seek Monday,” a major correction on Jan 27, 2025) as part of the cycle, not a sign of AI’s demise.
- Big tech’s approach: oversized CapEx as a strategic necessity—better to overspend than risk missing the next tech shift.
Notable Quotes:
“We’re still early innings... There is just such a lack of compute out there relative to demand... there’s some legs here.” — Jason Ware [02:35]
“Mark Zuckerberg answered that question last quarter, right. They’re doing more CapEx and sure, it hurt the stock for a time... but they'd rather keep spending and make sure they’re positioned.” — Jason Ware [03:54]
3. Debt, AI Build-Out, & Investor Jitters
[05:12 – 07:35]
- Recent sell-offs in Oracle and CoreWeave raised concerns about debt-fueled AI expansion.
- Most mega-cap techs still finance AI growth via operating cash flow—debt buildup is only significant for certain players.
- The market is likely overreacting to these debt fears; AI remains a secular growth story.
Notable Quote:
“There are the Oracles and the CoreWeaves... that are doing it in a way that’s perhaps a little bit more risky. But... this too shall pass.” — Jason Ware [06:53]
4. Politics & the “AI Threat”
[07:35 – 09:17]
- Bipartisan political pressure is growing regarding AI's societal effects (e.g., job displacement).
- Historical perspective: each tech innovation sparked labor fears, but the economy adjusts via “creative destruction.”
- No expectation that political pushback will derails AI’s advance or hurt markets in 2026.
Notable Quote:
“Progress is essentially unstoppable regardless of the narrative of the moment... It’s the whole idea of creative destruction.” — Jason Ware [08:05]
5. Mega Cap Tech (“Mag 7”) vs. Broader Market: What Wins in 2026?
[09:17 – 11:02]
- Admani queries whether the “Mag 7” (mega-cap tech stocks) will continue to outperform the S&P 493.
- Ware expects another strong year for mega-cap tech, despite some “dispersion” within the group and ongoing broadening attempts in the market.
- Albion’s approach: diversified exposure, but “Splendid 6” focus (ex-Tesla) among big tech.
Notable Quote:
“...my guess is that 12 months from now... we’re going to see that tech once again led the way in '26.” — Jason Ware [10:13]
6. Tariffs: From Front-Page Fears to Non-Story
[11:11 – 13:36]
- Tariff headlines have faded, though rates are meaningfully higher than pre-2025.
- Ware credits policy moderation for preventing deeper economic harm.
- AI and the strong consumer have offset marginal tariff impacts, preventing a recession.
Notable Quote:
“The reason [tariffs] didn’t tank the economy is because the administration pulled back on their worst instincts... If [they’d] been implemented, we would be in recession right now...” — Jason Ware [11:32]
7. Supreme Court Ruling on IEBA and Market Uncertainty
[13:36 – 15:49]
- The upcoming Supreme Court decision on the International Economic and Business Act (IEBA) is flagged as a major 2026 market risk.
- Market could rally or sell off—uncertainty rules. Additional tariff-related revenue may have even helped stabilize bond markets.
- Base case: If existing tariffs are upheld, that’s probably the “path of least resistance” for stability.
Notable Quote:
“It feels like it introduces a new level of uncertainty that we just don’t need.” — Jason Ware [14:51]
8. The Federal Reserve & Potential Leadership Change
[15:49 – 20:49]
- Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and Trump will appoint the next Fed Chair.
- Ware is not worried about the Fed losing its independence, given checks and balances and the collective nature of the FOMC.
- Divided Fed likely to persist, with debates over balancing price stability and employment—reflecting current tensions: cooling labor market but still slightly above-target inflation.
Notable Quotes:
“I just don’t think [Fed politicization] is likely to happen. I think there’s a lot of natural limiters to that becoming a reality.” — Jason Ware [17:39]
“There are some on the committee that say, hey…we probably don’t need to cut further…others say we’re good enough, but the labor market has softened.” — Jason Ware [19:30]
9. Interest Rate Cuts, FOMC Projections into 2026
[20:49 – 23:44]
- Market expectations are for two rate cuts in 2026.
- Ware suggests the actual number could be less, barring a more dovish Fed chair. Economic data would justify fewer than two, but political dynamics might push it to two or three.
Memorable Moment:
“If I had to guess, I’d say… I’d take the under on two.” — Jason Ware [23:33]
10. IPO Market, M&A, and the Gold Rally in 2025
[23:44 – 26:54]
- 2025 saw disappointing returns for tech IPOs outside of core AI/cloud sectors. Uptick in IPOs and M&A expected in 2026, especially if companies fit AI or infrastructure themes.
- Contradictory signals: record-high gold prices (classic fear asset) alongside strong IPO and M&A activity (reflecting optimism).
Notable Quote:
“Gold is a classic doomsday asset, right...while M&A and IPOs tend to rise when executives and people feel good about the world. They shouldn't travel together...” — Jason Ware [25:27]
Noteworthy Quotes & Timestamps
- “At the end of the day, it’s just that simple. We’ve had an economy that’s been resilient...” — Jason Ware [00:36]
- “We’re still early innings... there is just such a lack of compute out there relative to demand...” — Jason Ware [02:35]
- “Mark Zuckerberg answered that... They’d rather keep spending and make sure they’re positioned.” — Jason Ware [03:54]
- “This too shall pass.” — Jason Ware, on AI debt concerns [06:53]
- “Progress is essentially unstoppable... creative destruction.” — Jason Ware [08:05]
- “If [full tariffs] would have been implemented, we would be in recession right now...” — Jason Ware [11:32]
- “It feels like it introduces a new level of uncertainty that we just don’t need.” — Jason Ware [14:51]
- “I just don’t think [Fed politicization] is likely to happen...” — Jason Ware [17:39]
- “If I had to guess, I’d say... I'd take the under on two.” — Jason Ware, on Fed rate cuts [23:33]
- “Gold is a classic doomsday asset, right... while M&A and IPOs tend to rise when executives and people feel good…” — Jason Ware [25:27]
Conclusion
This forward-focused episode underscores that, while 2025’s headlines (tariffs, AI mania, geopolitics, and the Fed) produced wild narratives and occasional investor anxiety, the fundamentals—robust earnings, sound economic growth, and AI-driven CapEx—continued to drive market strength. The coming year will hinge on similar forces, with added uncertainty from the Supreme Court, Federal Reserve leadership changes, tariff politics, and the IPO market’s recovery. Ware’s optimism remains intact, especially for mega-cap tech and ongoing AI expansion, with a measured eye on shifting political and economic crosscurrents.