The SpaceX IPO is Coming. Here's Why Elon Musk Can No Longer Resist (ft. Eric Berger)

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Rundown

Episode Title: The SpaceX IPO is Coming. Here's Why Elon Musk Can No Longer Resist
Date: December 14, 2025
Host: Zaid Admani
Guest: Eric Berger (Space Journalist and Author)

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Main Theme

This episode explores the likelihood and underlying reasons for a much-anticipated SpaceX IPO, delving into why Elon Musk appears ready to take SpaceX public after years of reluctance. Joined by renowned space journalist and author Eric Berger, the conversation highlights SpaceX’s changing business landscape, the rise of data centers in space, competitive dynamics, and how these elements converge with the accelerating AI arms race.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Elon Musk’s Opinion and Berger’s Article ([00:09]–[01:11])

• Berger wrote a widely-referenced piece on why SpaceX may IPO soon, which Elon Musk personally affirmed as “accurate” on X.
  • “He [Elon] prizes accuracy above all else. So when he said that, I thought, well, the article must hit pretty close to the mark.” — Eric Berger [00:57]

Why SpaceX Has Stayed Private for So Long ([01:11]–[03:42])

• Historically, SpaceX has not been notably profitable; most income has been reinvested toward Musk’s long-term vision—namely, Mars colonization.
  • “The ultimate goal of the company is to settle Mars. That is what he’s pushing toward.” — Eric Berger [02:16]
• Musk prefers running companies with less public scrutiny and regulatory headache, as seen in his efforts to take Tesla private and keep X private.
• Public market expectations about profits conflict with Musk’s focus on visionary, long-term goals.

What’s Changed: Why an IPO Now? ([03:42]–[05:21])

• AI Acceleration:
  • Musk sees winning in AI as existential for his businesses (and “perhaps humanity”). This convergence—AI, robotics, satellites, and data centers—puts SpaceX in a unique position, especially versus rivals like Sam Altman and Jeff Bezos.
    • “He views AI as super important… now, data centers in space… SpaceX could not be more poised to be successful in that industry.” — Eric Berger [04:38]
• Starlink Success:
  • With thousands of working satellites, SpaceX has operational scale and technology that no other private space company can match.
• Timing & Funding:
  • SpaceX could leverage an IPO to raise enormous capital (potentially a $1.5 trillion valuation) to fuel its next phase: building data centers in space and extending its lead in AI infrastructure.

Data Centers in Space—What Does That Mean? ([05:53]–[08:39])

• Rather than constructing traditional data centers on Earth (which face environmental, regulatory, and scaling issues), companies are investing in off-planet (satellite-based) data storage and processing.
• Why Space?
  • Six times more solar energy is available above Earth’s atmosphere; continuous, cloudless sunlight for powering data operations.
  • Satellite technology enables high-speed laser links for inter-satellite communication—already a specialty of Starlink.
    • “You get about six times the amount of solar energy in space than you do on earth… it’s basically 24 hours continuous power.” — Eric Berger [06:34]
  • Cooling remains a challenge in vacuum, but SpaceX’s experience positions them to address it.
• Environmental/Regulatory Angle:
  • Building new terrestrial data centers is becoming politically fraught; “A permit for 30,000 satellites is easier than three data centers across the country.” — Eric Berger [08:01]

Timelines and Hype ([08:39]–[10:04])

• SpaceX could begin deploying prototype data center satellites within 12–24 months, moving aggressively toward scalable infrastructure in orbit.
  • “I would not be surprised to see some test satellites launch within the next 12 to 24 months.” — Eric Berger [09:25]
• Berger notes the narrative/hype also plays a role: “Space is cool. Data centers is cool. Data centers in space. Boom. Let’s make it happen.” — Zaid Admani [10:04]

The Scale of Opportunity ([11:32]–[13:00])

• Data centers in space could become a $100+ billion/year business, massively expanding the practical and financial use cases for new launch vehicles like Starship and Blue Origin’s New Glenn.
• Rocket launches may increase tenfold if these plans succeed.

SpaceX as Musk’s Favorite Company and Personal Motivation ([12:41]–[14:31])

• Berger argues SpaceX most closely aligns with Musk’s ambitions for human space settlement:
  • “He’s been most passionate about… human settlement beyond planet Earth.” — Eric Berger [12:56]
• IPO timing is also influenced by Musk’s age and desire to achieve Mars-related goals within his lifetime:
  • “He realizes he’s 54… if we’re really going to get a human settlement on Mars in my lifetime, we need to get even bigger.” — Eric Berger [14:07]

Is SpaceX a Monopoly? ([14:33]–[17:18])

• SpaceX controls nearly all commercial launches, satellite networks, and western human space launch capabilities—but Berger predicts this dominance won’t last indefinitely.
  • “They launch 90% of the mass to low Earth orbit this year. The next closest US competitor is like six rockets… functional monopoly.” — Eric Berger [15:51]
• Other companies (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Stokespace) are gaining, in part as telecoms and governments seek alternatives to SpaceX’s dominance.

The Role of Starlink ([17:48]–[19:58])

• Starlink transformed SpaceX from a pure launch company (with modest revenues) to a major communications provider, expected to generate $22–24 billion next year—matching NASA’s budget.
  • “SpaceX now has an annual budget on par with NASA… not relying on NASA anymore.” — Eric Berger [19:04]

Market Dynamics and IPO Volatility ([19:58]–[21:39])

• SpaceX has been less volatile than Tesla, but public company status may introduce new market swings, especially with ambitious projects like Starship and Starlink expansion.
• Data centers in space (combined with Starlink) could create a hundredfold leap in business scale and long-term company value.

AI Bubble Vulnerability and Vertical Integration ([21:39]–[23:29])

• SpaceX isn’t currently exposed to an AI bubble, but massive investment in space-based data centers introduces future risk if AI investment falters.
• Musk’s vertical integration (AI, rockets, satellites, launching capability) would allow SpaceX/X.AI to out-compete any hypothetical rival on both cost and performance.
  • “That vertical integration is a killer. If I were another AI company, I’d be very concerned about that.” — Eric Berger [22:49]

Competitive Landscape and SpaceX’s Lead ([23:29]–[24:16])

• Even the best new launch startups are at least a decade behind SpaceX in hardware and manufacturing capability.
  • “Any other company is at least a decade behind SpaceX’s ability to build stuff and get it into space.” — Eric Berger [24:09]

Trends for 2026 and Beyond ([24:16]–[25:44])

• Berger doesn’t offer stock tips but says to watch for companies tackling:

  • Data centers in space
  • Orbital refueling
  • Lunar landings/support infrastructure
  • US government defense/space initiatives

• “The key is companies that actually have real hardware and not just PowerPoints. There’s lots of PowerPoints out there.” — Eric Berger [25:33]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Musk’s Motivation:
  “For 30, for three decades is like human settlement beyond planet Earth… he’s trying to do what he can to push us out there.” — Eric Berger [12:56]
• On Market Shift:
  “If you can build [data centers] for that amount or less in space at scale, then you’ve got a huge product… What we need all these rockets for — data centers would almost be a factor of 10 on top of that.” — Eric Berger [11:44, 12:18]
• On Tech/Industry Hype:
  “There’s also a cool element to it… you can sell it to investors: ‘We’re doing this cool thing. Data centers in space.’” — Zaid Admani [10:04]
• On Competition:
  “If he can [operate data centers] for half or a quarter of what you’re doing… he’ll kill the competitors.” — Eric Berger [23:11]

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Quick Takes: Space Milestones ([25:44]–[27:08])

• Berger is confident the US will return to the moon by 2030, “within five years for sure.” [26:19]
• Mars landing? Berger pegs it for around 2045—no longer merely a pipe dream. [26:29]

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Timestamps for Noteworthy Sections

• Elon Musk Reaction to Berger’s Article: [00:51–01:11]
• Why SpaceX Stayed Private: [01:40–03:42]
• AI and IPO Rationale: [04:04–05:21]
• Data Centers in Space Explained: [05:53–08:39]
• Technology Timelines: [09:00–10:04]
• Is SpaceX a Monopoly? [14:33–17:18]
• Starlink’s Role: [17:48–19:58]
• AI Bubble and Vertical Integration: [21:39–23:29]
• Industry Tips and Trends: [24:16–25:44]
• Moon and Mars Forecasts: [25:44–27:08]

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Tone & Style

The discussion mixes journalistic precision with industry insider knowledge, leavened by Berger’s modesty and occasional humor, and balanced by Admani’s direct, investor-focused questions. Both engage in clear, digestible explanations suitable for investors and space enthusiasts alike.

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For a deeper dive, read Eric Berger’s full Ars Technica piece and keep an eye on the next leaps from SpaceX as the world heads rapidly toward an off-Earth computing future.

Transcript

[A]

All right, Eric Berger, welcome to the rundown.

[B]

Hey, it's my pleasure.

[C]

Glad to be here.

[A]

I'm super excited for today's conversation. You know, we both have some stuff in common. Like I was saying before the show started, Eric is a fellow Houstonian, also a UT Austin alum. If you, if you're watching the video version, that's what we both have in common. But Eric, what we don't have in common is your expertise of SpaceX. You've written a book on them. You've also written a fantastic piece this week about why SpaceX is looking to IPO soon or why they'd want to IPO soon. Before we really dig into the piece that you wrote, Elon Musk replied to that article on X saying that, as usual, Eric is accurate. When you got that notification on X, what was going through your mind when you saw that?

[B]

I mean, you know, Elon Musk talks.

[C]

To me on X every now and then, so I wasn't super surprised. But I will say that, you know.

[B]

Coming from him, that's pretty high praise. He, he has a difficult relationship with journalists, I would say. But, but he, he prizes accuracy above, above all else.

[C]

So when he said that, I thought.

[B]

Well, the article must hit pretty close to the mark.

[A]

Yeah, that's what I think. That's what everyone's takeaway was like. If Elon is saying good stuff here, this must have really been accurate. So let's talk about the piece that you wrote on Ars Technica. Fantastic piece. I highly recommend everyone read the whole thing. One of the things that you talked about is why Elon Musk has resisted going public with SpaceX for so long. Can you first talk about why the company is, what, 20 plus years old? Why has he waited so long to go public?

[B]

Yes, I think one of the main.

[C]

Reasons is SpaceX has never really been profitable. The company's existed since 2002 and for the first 10 years they lost money. Then second 10 years, I think they broke even, some years lost money.

[B]

But basically all the money that they've.

[C]

Raised, from government contracts to launch satellites, to Dragon spacecraft contracts, to commercial launch contracts, was reinvested into the company. There was no profit taking.

[B]

The decisions he was making were not.

[C]

Intended for short term gain. These were long term visions. The ultimate goal of the company is to settle Mars. That is what he's pushing toward. And that is not a winning formula, I think for investors who are looking to put some money into SpaceX stock and get money back.

[B]

I think he was always really concerned that the vision for SpaceX was not.

[C]

Consistent with what shareholders would want out of a company.

[A]

But I mean, there still seems to be demand even in the private markets for SpaceX. There was reporting that SpaceX is now valued at $800 billion based on some secondary sales that they've done for their stock.

[B]

I think the other thing, and I take your point, there's been a huge.

[C]

Market for private investment in SpaceX and there's been a clamor from public investors.

[B]

But the other thing too, that he's.

[C]

Taken away from his experience at Tesla now for more than a decade of being a public company, is that there's a lot of scrutin of what the company does. And I think a lot of that rankles him, having to open his books that much to the public. I think there's also been sort of that he just doesn't want that extra headache of being a public company and all of the regulatory oversight that comes with that, but also the public scrutiny. I think he likes to sort of.

[B]

He likes to make decisions without having.

[C]

To consult other people. And that's more difficult with a, with a public company.

[A]

Well, he famously tried to take Tesla private all those years ago, and then obviously X is now private. So that makes sense, which is why the news of a potential IPO is so surprising. So what do you think change? Why do you think right now is a good time for the IPO jump? Is it the success of Starlink that it's going so fast? Is the company on the track to be profitable soon? What do you think changed?

[C]

So there's multiple reasons and I'm happy to talk about them, but I think the primary change is really the acceleration of artificial intelligence over the last few years. Musk has decided that it's existential for him and his businesses and perhaps humanity, that sort of his vision of AI wins the future. Some of it also is probably personal animus with Sam Altman. He wants to kick Sam's butt. I wouldn't actually discount that as being.

[B]

A reason, but it's. He views AI as super important. And there's this convergence of robotics at.

[C]

Tesla xai, his AI company, and like now, data centers in space, which is like, absolutely right.

[B]

SpaceX could not be more poised to.

[C]

Be successful in that industry because it.

[B]

Has the only reusable, rapidly reusable launch.

[C]

Vehicle in the world. It's building a much bigger one and has lots of experience building capable satellites. With Starlink, it's put almost 8,000 of them into space. So they are perfectly poised to capitalize on data centers.

[B]

And so I think he saw that if he was going to win that battle, that now was the time to.

[C]

Raise a bunch of capital and just go for it.

[A]

So going public, even in your article, you talked about how this might be the biggest IPO of all time. There's speculation that it might be valued at $1.5 trillion, the biggest IPO ever. He's going to raise a bunch of money. So I want to talk about this whole Data centers in space, right? There's a lot of hype around it. Sam Altman invested in some company to try to bring data centers into space. Jeff Bezos, Blue Origins is doing that. What does that mean, data centers in space? Like, I feel like we're having a hard enough time building data centers on Earth. It's super expensive to do that here. What does data centers in space even mean?

[C]

Right. It's really interesting when you look at it.

[B]

And Sam Altman did look at Stokespace.

[C]

I don't think they actually ended up making an investment. But you know, Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, bought Relativity Space almost a year ago. And the intent there was to basically use their medium heavy lift rocket that they're developing to do data centers in space. So it's like there's this huge amount of interest.

[B]

And so the idea is basically that you would take sort of the storage.

[C]

Processing and transfer of data and move it from data centers off Earth and put them in space and well, why would you do that? Space is difficult. It's a difficult environment. It's hard to get to.

[B]

And the answer is that, you know, if you're going to use solar energy.

[C]

You get about six times the amount of solar energy in space than you do on earth. Because it's 24 hours on, there's no clouds, you know, you're not losing any light coming through the atmosphere.

[B]

So it's basically 24 hours continuous power.

[C]

Now.

[B]

It is difficult to dissipate heat in space.

[C]

Believe it or not.

[B]

Yes, space is cold, but it's a vacuum.

[C]

So it's actually difficult to dissipate heat from your satellites. But that can be manage. The problem is about the same as is on Earth. I mean, cooling in data centers is obviously a huge issue here on Earth.

[B]

There's a lot of technical challenges in.

[C]

Terms of getting the data to space, communicating between satellites and getting the Data back.

[B]

But SpaceX has already solved some of.

[C]

These issues with its massive Starlink constellation, which has these laser data links that.

[B]

Really, like I said, they sort of.

[C]

Have the core technologies for this already ready to go and, and a mass manufacturing line built in.

[B]

So the idea is basically like you get free energy in space and you don't have to deal with all of the terrestrial hangups.

[C]

I think we're going to see a growing backlash to data centers here on Earth. People aren't going to want them in their backyard. They're driving up energy prices, they're environmentally not good for water and other things like that.

[B]

I think there will be an environmental.

[C]

Backlash at data centers in space.

[B]

And it's a lot easier to get.

[C]

A permit for 30,000 satellites than it is to get a permit for three data centers across the country.

[A]

Okay, so it's not, when people say data centers in space, it's not necessarily like you're building them on the moon. It's like kind of like a floating satellite that then you're using the solar energy.

[B]

It would be, you know, probably something between 600 and 1,000 kilometers above Earth.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

So it's presumably it's in low Earth.

[C]

Orbit, you could put them elsewhere and eventually you could do data centers on the moon.

[B]

Actually, you know, if you wanted to solve the heat dissipation problem, you could.

[C]

Put them in permanently shattered regions on the moon which are extremely cold. But initially, yeah, we're talking about satellites in low Earth orbit.

[A]

Gotcha. So, you know, Elon, obviously, you know, he makes a lot of promises. He likes, he likes to talk a big game. I feel like the timelines don't always match up though, when it comes to like delivering on stuff. He eventually gets to it. But what does it look like when you, when you're saying data centers in space? Is that like a this decade kind of thing or is that like 10, 20 years down the line?

[B]

That's like this, you know, 24 to.

[C]

36 months thing for SpaceX, I think.

[A]

Really? Okay, very interesting.

[C]

They're going to move pretty aggressively into this and like I said, they're kind of set up to do it. They already have a Starlink version 3 satellite and I think they're going to modify that. And I don't know this for a fact, but I suspect they've already done a lot of that engineering work and.

[B]

So they can move into production pretty quickly.

[C]

And I would not be surprised to see some test satellites launch within the next 12 to 24 months. And how quickly you scale up to actually full scale data centers in space, we'll have to see. But.

[B]

I am not an engineer and I talk to smart people who think.

[C]

That data centers in space aren't practical.

[B]

Why wouldn't you just build them in.

[C]

The desert or somewhere here on Earth where there's lots of solar energy?

[B]

But when Elon, Jeff Bezos, Eric Schmidt, and a whole host of other people.

[C]

Are really going for this idea, you think, well, there might. There might well be something to it, to me.

[A]

So I always think that it's like, just sounds cool. It's like, oh, space is cool. Data centers is cool. Data centers in space. Boom. Let's make it happen. So I think that there's also a cool element to it, and then it's also like a narrative element to it, too. You can sell it to investors. We're like, hey, you want to invest in our company? Because we're doing this cool thing. We got prototypes, we're 36 months away. And then you build the narrative to, you know, kind of feed into, like.

[D]

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[E]

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[B]

I mean, if you look at where.

[C]

All the investment is going, I mean, hundreds of billions of dollars are being spent on data centers at this point around the world.

[B]

And if you can build them for.

[C]

That amount or less in space at scale, then you've got a huge product.

[B]

Where even five years ago didn't exist in space. I mean, what you what. It's interesting, you know, We've had about 20 years where you've had SpaceX, but.

[C]

Other companies starting to build a really great launch capability. But it hasn't been entirely clear what we need all these rockets for.

[B]

But if you take like, you know.

[C]

So we have Starlink, we have Amazon's Constellation, Amazon, Leo, we have OneWeb and some of the constellations.

[B]

But like data centers would be like.

[C]

Almost a factor of 10 on top.

[B]

Of that in terms of needed for launch capacity. And so what I'm saying is we.

[C]

Have the tools to like do this in space.

[B]

It's not something we had five years or 10 years ago, but we have.

[C]

Them now and even more so in the near future with Starship and Blue Origin's new Glenn rocket.

[B]

So it's not crazy to think that.

[C]

This is going to happen.

[A]

Do you think that kind of zooming out a little bit talking about SpaceX as a whole, do you think that SpaceX is Elon's favorite company?

[B]

Yeah, I do, because I think the thing that he's been most passionate about.

[C]

For 30, for three decades is like human settlement beyond planet Earth. Like he talks about making humans multi planetary. He worries a lot about like the long term viability of the human species. He thinks a lot about like what future evolution would look like, convergence with AI. And so he's convinced that for humanity to survive long term, it needs to spread to other planets and eventually other stars. And so he's trying to do what he can to push us out there. This comes back to another reason why I think that they're doing the IPO now is.

[B]

He'S been really, really active.

[C]

As an entrepreneur for the last three decades. So he started in his 20s, he's now 54 and he doesn't have the healthiest lifestyle.

[B]

I mean, you look at Jeff Bezos.

[C]

And that guy works out and is clearly really taking care of his body.

[B]

And Elon, he spends a lot of.

[C]

Time working and is less focused on, I think, his health.

[B]

And I just saw an interview yesterday.

[C]

Where he said his favorite food was cheeseburgers, which I can't disagree with him, but I mean, that's not the healthiest thing in the world.

[B]

So I think he realizes that he's 54, he's been talking about Mars for.

[C]

25 years and.

[B]

This is the time to go for it. SpaceX has grown to this huge company, right?

[C]

It's valued hundreds of billions of dollars, got like 14,000 employees.

[B]

But like he's thinking if we're really going to do get a human settlement.

[C]

On Mars in my lifetime, we need to get even bigger.

[B]

And so I think he's rolling the.

[C]

Dice and going for it.

[A]

Do you think that SpaceX is a monopoly? Because I feel like, you know, they own what, 90, 90% of the market when it comes to commercialized launches? There's a lot of people trying to Compete with them. Obviously they have Jeff Bezos with deep pockets. There's all these space companies that have IPO'd recently. There's new ones popping up all the time. Feel like no one's really close to getting to the level that SpaceX is at. And the fact that they have such scale already makes it even more attractive when it comes to, as a, as a potential investment, when you see it as a potential investor.

[B]

So they are a monopoly in some.

[C]

Senses, and I'll explain what I mean by that. But I think that also, that will not last. Right now, Russia's human launch site is offline. So there's only two ways in the world to get people into space. It's China and it's SpaceX Dragon. They have a monopoly on western human launch. They will launch 90% of the mass to low Earth orbit this year. They're gonna launch 160, 170 rockets this year. The next closest US competitor is like six rockets. Crazy. They operate almost 90% of the satellites in orbit, the Starlink Constellation.

[B]

And so yeah, they have like a functional monopoly. But, but I mean, it's interesting if you look at what the telecoms are.

[C]

Doing, because Starlink is by far the best technology for Internet broadband and for connectivity and increasingly for direct to device.

[B]

But some of These companies like AT&T.

[C]

Are investing in a company called AST Space, which is way behind SpaceX and the technology. But.

[B]

They don't want Elon to have.

[C]

A total monopoly on this. They want to have competition, otherwise they'll become beholden to SpaceX. And in launch, the government is trying to get other competitors to step forward. You mentioned Blue Origin, but there's other launch companies such as Rocket Lab and Stokespace as well, that are really kind of on the rise.

[B]

And it's so interesting for me to watch because if you go back 15.

[C]

Years or 10 years even SpaceX was trying to break the monopoly United Launch alliance had on launch contracts in the United States. And they've completely turned the tables.

[B]

But it's not really because it's government favoritism. It's just because they've out executed all of their competitors.

[C]

It's not like the government's really handing out favors. They're just doing stuff better and faster and cheaper than everyone else.

[A]

I think that's the key point right there. They literally, they went step by step, figured out how to reuse stuff. They totally changed the game. And you wrote again a great book about it too, kind of breaking that down.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

And you know There it goes back to, you know, we talked about, well.

[C]

Why wouldn't they have been a good public company?

[B]

Because like they were just taking all.

[C]

Of their funding and pouring it into develop, research and development on their next line of products. Like they would get one launch vehicle completed and then they'd immediately start working on the next one, rather than sort of trying to take profits out of that vehicle.

[A]

Do you think the success of Starling? I think Starlink is just, I mean, incredible.

[C]

Right.

[A]

I'm thinking about getting it as a backup for my Internet service whenever the power goes down in Houston, because that happens all the time, surprisingly. And then it's coming to airlines and stuff. United Airlines is gonna, it's gonna roll it out. Do you think the, the commercial success of Starlink is playing a huge role here? Because I mean that's, that's, that's growing revenue, they're growing like crazy and it's a big brand. I mean, I think there was talks even potentially spinning it out into a separate company. Now I think that's not, that's not the case anymore. Can you talk more about the Starlink kind of being really the main kind of piece of the pie here?

[B]

It is because if you look at.

[C]

Like, so SpaceX for the first 15 years of its existence was really a transportation company. It was launched in a lesser extent, spacecraft, cargo spacecraft and then crew launch.

[B]

If you look at sort of the spectrum of the space industry is really.

[C]

A tiny piece of like revenue. So expanding to Starlink to do communications opened up a much bigger slice of revenue. So we've seen SpaceX's revenue each year grow, grow, grow, grow, grow because of Starlink. And this year, excuse me, next year it's estimated to be 22 to 24 billion dollars, which is a lot of revenue, especially for a space company because NASA's annual budget is about $25 billion. So SpaceX now has an annual budget on par with NASA. So when Elon says that we're not relying on NASA anymore and haven't been for quite a while, he's exactly right. They're providing services to NASA. But it's not like SpaceX's existence does not owe its existence to NASA anymore.

[A]

Yeah, that's true. And I think that's going to be important to watch, to see the growth of that business and, and just it's going to be interesting to see how SpaceX is as a public company, how the market reacts to it. Is it going to have the up and down nature of the test as a Tesla, what what is, what role does like the Elon, you know, factor play? Because like, you know, that that plays a factor when it comes to the valuation of his companies.

[B]

Yeah, and I mean, you know, SpaceX.

[C]

Historically, and I haven't covered Tesla much, it's focused entirely on space almost, but has been far less volatile.

[B]

And SpaceX had a rough year in.

[C]

2015, they had a rough year in 2016. Then from 2016 to this year they had this phenomenal rise. They just had success after success after success and just really grew phenomenally in launch, in crew transportation and in Starlink. The Starlink system this past year has.

[B]

Been a little difficult because they've had three Starship failures.

[C]

And so there's questions about the long term viability of that program. And Starship is important because to get the really big starLink satellites that SpaceX wants to have up there, they've got to get Starship working.

[B]

So this year might have been interesting.

[C]

If it were a public company because it would have been skyrocketing, I think for a decade and then maybe leveled off a little bit this year. But you're absolutely right. The long term value of SpaceX is not the launch business. It is what it's doing in. And that's why I think data centers are such an interesting element, because even like a year or two ago, that whole piece of revenue didn't exist.

[B]

But if you figure launch potential revenues.

[C]

One Starlink is a factor of 10 over that, and then data centers are potentially a factor of 10 over that. So it's like 100 to 1 over what the launch business was.

[B]

That's why I think they could have.

[C]

A chance to get that much in.

[B]

Ipo just because there is this huge potential for business. If AI is not a bubble and.

[C]

If they can get data centers to work, then there's zero question in my mind that SpaceX will be the leading data center company in the world.

[A]

How vulnerable do you think that SpaceX is to a potential AI bubble? If there is a significant reduction in CAPEX by these hyperscalers, do you think that impacts SpaceX dramatically or do you think that their other business kind of buffers that from happening?

[B]

Well, right now they have zero vulnerability. But if they go public with data.

[C]

Centers as a major core of their business and they invest tens of billions of dollars in putting these things in space and then they're not being used, then yeah, that's a huge problem.

[B]

I will say Elon loves to vertically.

[C]

Integrate his companies and it's been really the key to success at SpaceX, he's.

[B]

Going to be vertically integrating the hell.

[C]

Out of his businesses because he's got an AI company. Xai. And imagine the synergy of. Because no other AI company can do this. No other AI company has a rocket, let alone the best rocket in the world. No other a company can build satellites, let alone the best satellites in the world and most efficient at manufacturing.

[B]

And so he has the potential to build the data centers and get them into space and then provide them at.

[C]

Like a tenth of the cost of what he might sell that to other competitors.

[B]

I mean, it's just that vertical integration is a killer. And if I were another AI company.

[C]

I'd be very concerned about that. Because if data centers are like, I don't know how, what percentage of costs of an AI company with data centers are probably a lot. Like if it's at least 50% of.

[B]

Your costs, if he can do that.

[C]

For half or a quarter of what.

[B]

You'Re doing, I mean, that's like they'll kill him. So I mean, I mean he'll kill.

[C]

He'Ll kill the competitors.

[A]

I guess that might explain why Sam Altman was considering talking, you know, kind of exploring the same thing, investing in the space company.

[B]

But you know, it's just they're all super far behind.

[C]

Like he was talking to Stoke Space, which is a phenomenal company, it's based in Washington.

[B]

They are trying to build a fully.

[C]

Reusable rocket that has a lift capacity of about 4 tons to orbit.

[B]

Well, that's a nice rocket, but it's.

[C]

About 1/5 the payload capacity of a Falcon 9 and 1/50 the capacity of a starship. And it's probably not even going to launch for the first time until late next year, 2027. Then there'll be a period to scale it up.

[B]

So like any other company is at least a decade behind SpaceX's ability to.

[C]

Build stuff and get it into space.

[B]

I don't think it's unrealistic to say SpaceX has a decade lead in other.

[C]

Companies and trying to do data centers in space.

[A]

Yeah, that's what makes them different than others. I'll end with this. You cover the space industry closely. What are some other emerging companies or trends that investors or people in general should keep, keep, keep on their radar as we enter into 2026 and beyond?

[B]

Yeah, you know, I, I don't invest in the space industry.

[C]

I don't give financial advice because I cover it.

[B]

But you know, there's, there's lots of exciting space companies. It was Interesting. There was a period in 2020, 2021.

[C]

When companies were going SPAC and there were all these private companies doing that in space. And I was like, man, thinking to myself, I would never invest in that.

[B]

Company and who are these people that.

[C]

Are driving these crazy valuations?

[B]

But now with, I mean, I would be looking for the companies that can.

[C]

Serve data centers in space. I'd be looking for the companies that.

[B]

Can do orbital refueling, I would be looking at the companies that can land on the moon, and I would be looking at the companies that can help.

[C]

The government with Golden Dome because that's.

[B]

A huge project as well where there's.

[C]

Going to be lots of money on offer for companies that can execute.

[B]

But the key, the key man, is companies that actually have real hardware and.

[C]

Not just PowerPoints, because there's lots of PowerPoints out there.

[A]

Do you think we, so rapid fire. Do you think that we get to the moon before 2040? Back on the moon before 2040?

[B]

Before 2040?

[C]

Absolutely.

[B]

The question is whether we get there before 2030.

[A]

I feel like I've been hearing this my entire life. I remember as a kid, like under the Bush administration, oh, we're gonna get back to the moon. Get back to the moon. I'm 35.

[B]

We're gonna, we're gonna fly astronauts around.

[C]

The moon in three or four months. So like that's happening and then the.

[B]

Lunar landers are coming along and I.

[C]

Mean China's gonna land there within five years, so we'd better get off our butts as well.

[B]

But yeah, we're gonna be back on.

[C]

The moon within five years for sure.

[A]

Amazing. And then Mars, I mean, you know, end of the century. How about that? I'll give you that end of the century.

[B]

I mean, I would put that number at like 2045.

[C]

Really?

[A]

Wow. Wow. Okay. I just, that's amazing. I, I always think the Mars thing is like, is like a, is like the, the North Star that you never actually reach.

[B]

But it's like it always has been. It always has been. But like the cool thing about starship is that for the first time in.

[C]

Our lifetimes, for the first time ever, there's been a human built transportation system that could get people there.

[B]

So like it's coming. The National Academies of Science just put.

[C]

Out a report this week saying Mars is inevitable. Here's the science we ought to be doing with people on the red planet. So I think it's coming.

[B]

It's still going to be a while.

[C]

It's not going to be 10 years. It'll be a little bit longer.

[A]

Well, I. I'm looking forward to the moon landing because I mean, obviously that's just moon landing in 4K live on YouTube. I mean, that's going to be. That's going to be the biggest ever. I can't wait for that. Eric, you're amazing, you know. Love reading all your stuff, especially the Space City weather. Again, big fan. So thank you so much for, for your time today.

[C]

Thank you.

[E]

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