The Rundown – December 9, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani
Theme: Daily Stock Market Top Stories — Nvidia’s China Deal, Google’s Smart Glasses, and Market Movers

Episode Overview

In today’s tight, sub-10-minute episode, Zaid Admani covers key movements in the US stock market with a focus on tech and policy, then dives deep into landmark updates from Nvidia and Google, before closing with stock-specific analysis and a novel Netflix announcement. The podcast’s tone is crisp, candid, and geared toward actionable investor insights.

Market Recap & Macro Themes

[00:34–02:15]

• Stocks:

  • S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
  • Nasdaq dropped only 0.1%.
  • Tech sector and small caps (Russell 2000) were exceptions, eking out gains.
  • “Small caps have been cooking lately because investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates at the Fed meeting tomorrow. And when borrowing costs [are] cheaper, smaller companies tend to benefit the most.”

• Rates & Uncertainty:

  • Even with a 90% market expectation of a Fed rate cut, the 10-year Treasury yield continues to climb (sitting at 4.17%, highest since September).
  • Zaid explains: rates on things like mortgages track the 10-year yield — not the Fed rate. "So even if the Fed keeps cutting interest rates but the 10 year yield rises, we’re not going to get cheaper mortgage rates, which I think a lot of people were hoping for.” [01:20]
  • The decoupling is “a sign that markets are concerned that the Fed won’t cut rates in 2026 because of inflation. Or ... other long term uncertainties like geopolitical risk or the US national debt.” [01:38]

• Upcoming Catalyst:

  • “We are going to get the famous Fed dot plot at the Fed meeting tomorrow which shows where each Fed official expects interest rates to be over the next three years. Now markets love to overreact to this chart, so buckle up.” [01:55]

Big Story: Nvidia’s H200 Chips Allowed Back into China

[02:16–05:22]

• US Policy Shift

  • President Trump approves Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to selected Chinese buyers.
  • In exchange, the US government gets a 25% cut of all those sales.
  • “It’s like you have to pay a fee to the US Government to do business in China.” [04:58]

• Chip Details & Impact

  • The H200 is less advanced than Nvidia’s latest Blackwell and Rubin chips, but still “roughly a full generation ahead of anything that China can make domestically right now.” [02:55]
  • China previously banned Nvidia’s watered-down H20 chips on security and self-sufficiency grounds, pushing domestic innovation.
  • The reopened deal: Chinese importers now need approval, and Chinese government will “limit access to these chips to further push their domestic chip makers.” [03:35]
  • Potential windfall: “Back in 2024, China accounted for 14% of Nvidia’s revenue, and now it’s basically zero. So this new development could mean billions of dollars in additional revenue for Nvidia.” [03:48]

• Debate Over Risks

  • Critics warn it boosts China's AI capabilities.
  • Nvidia argues otherwise: "If we don’t sell chips to China, then Chinese tech companies will just buy them from Huawei, which could result in Huawei catching up to Nvidia one day.” [04:28]
  • Zaid’s take: “I see both sides of this argument. I think I’m leaning towards allowing the export of these chips to China. But then again, I might be biased because I do own some Nvidia stock.” [04:44]

Google’s New Smart Glasses Plans

[05:23–06:28]

• The Leak

  • Bloomberg reports Google will launch smart glasses in 2026. Two versions: AR display and audio-only.
  • Hardware partners include Samsung, Warby Parker, Gentle Monster.
  • Internal codename: Project Aura.
  • To run on Android XR (same as Samsung smart glasses); deeply integrated with Gemini AI.

• Market Context & Potential

  • Zaid references Meta’s successful Ray Ban smart glasses and Apple’s rumored entry.
  • “Smart glasses are expected to be a growing category. I think they have a much higher upside than the VR headsets because again, nobody wants to put a thing on their face.” [06:05]
  • “Let’s just hope that Google has learned their lesson from the Google glasses flop they had over a decade ago because those glasses were terrible and, and absolutely hideous.” [06:14]
  • Investors responded positively; Warby Parker stock up over 5% that morning.

Stock Movers: Aries Management & Toll Brothers

[06:29–07:31]

• Aries Management

  • Shares rising as they’ll be added to S&P 500 (replacing Kellanova, which Mars is acquiring).
  • “The private credit space has exploded over the last few years … Aries has really capitalized on this. Their stock has jumped nearly 200% over the last five years and [is] up another 8% this morning as S&P 500 index funds will now have to buy their stock.” [06:55]

• Toll Brothers

  • Shares down nearly 5% after mixed earnings and soft demand due to high housing costs.
  • “Builders have been cutting prices and offering incentives to move inventory, but that’s put a squeeze on their margins industry wide.”
  • “Toll Brothers, whose average home price is around a million dollars, reported that their gross margins fell by 1% this year to 25.6%.” [07:17]

Notable Quote Section

• On the US taking a 25% cut:
  “It’s like you have to pay a fee to the US Government to do business in China.”
  — Zaid Admani [04:58]

• On Google and the new glasses market:
  “Let’s just hope that Google has learned their lesson from the Google glasses flop they had over a decade ago because those glasses were terrible and, and absolutely hideous.”
  — Zaid Admani [06:14]

Quick Hit: Netflix Launches Live Mobile Game Show

[07:32–08:54]

• Netflix launching “Best Guest Live,” a live, interactive mobile game show reminiscent of HQ Trivia.
• Streams Mon-Fri at 8pm ET, prizes: $15,000 per episode.
• “Netflix is probably going to use this game show to cross promote all of their upcoming shows and movies as well. So yeah, really smart move by Netflix.” [08:32]
• “My only crit is that the prize money is only $15,000. Like they just dropped 80 plus billion dollars to buy Warner’s. At least make the prize money like a hundred thousand dollars a night or something.” [08:45]

Summary Table of Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:34 | Market recap: index moves, rates, Fed speculation | | 02:16 | Nvidia allowed H200 China sales, US gov’t demands 25% cut | | 05:23 | Google’s 2026 smart glasses teased, Warby Parker pops | | 06:29 | Aries Management up on S&P 500 inclusion | | 07:13 | Toll Brothers down on weak housing margins | | 07:32 | Netflix interactive game show announcement |

Takeaways

• Nvidia’s sales to China could signal revenue upside—but policy risks and tech transfer debates continue.
• Google is wagering that this generation wants smarter, less obtrusive eyewear, with a deep reliance on AI—and investors are buying in via partners.
• Stock-specific action and market trends hinge on both macro policy (Fed/treasuries) and M&A (Aries, Kellanova) playbook shifts.
• Netflix is pushing into interactive experiences, echoing successful gaming formulas to drive engagement.