The Rundown – September 26, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani | Produced by: Public.com
Episode Theme:
A fast-paced market update focused on the latest inflation data, an unexpected new round of Trump tariffs, a $2.5B Amazon FTC settlement, Meta-Google AI collaboration rumors, and the implications for major industries and investors.

Main Highlights & Episode Structure

1. Market Recap & Tariff Surprise

• [00:00-02:20]
  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ fell 0.5% for the third consecutive down day.
  • Zaid jokes that he "jinxed" the market by commenting on its earlier resilience:

    "Earlier this week, I was bragging about how stocks have had a surprisingly strong September ... and since I made those comments, the markets have dropped every single day. So my bad, guys." (01:08)

  • Breaking News: President Trump announced new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks.
  • These measures surprised many, as Trump hadn't focused on tariffs in recent weeks; there's underlying uncertainty as the Supreme Court is set to review the President’s authority for such tariffs in coming weeks.

2. Inflation Data and Rate Cut Outlook

• [02:21-03:40]
  • The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) for August:
    • Overall prices up 0.3% MoM; 2.7% YoY.
    • Core PCE up 2.9%.
    • "Inflation is still kind of stuck around the 3% range. But all those numbers were right in line with expectations, which means the Fed is likely to keep cutting interest rates." (03:09)
  • Fed’s current focus is the labor market; rate cuts likely as long as inflation remains stable.
  • Markets are betting on an 88% chance of a rate cut at the Oct 29th Fed meeting.

3. Meta & Google: Potential AI Partnership

• [03:41-05:02]
  • Meta reported in talks to use Google’s Gemini AI models to enhance its ad targeting.
  • Zaid notes the irony given Meta’s massive in-house AI investments:

    "Meta, the company that spent the summer handing out NBA sized contracts to AI talent, is now turning to Google for their AI tech." (03:46)

  • Suggests this move admits Meta's own Llama models are lagging; signals Google’s emergence as a true AI leader, with Gemini overtaking OpenAI’s ChatGPT in App Store rankings.
  • Zaid’s personal take:

    "I'll be honest, I'm finding myself using Gemini a lot more these days" (04:33)

4. Amazon Settles $2.5B FTC Lawsuit

• [05:03-06:31]
  • $2.5 billion settlement over allegations Amazon "tricked millions of customers into signing up for Amazon Prime and they made it hard to cancel on purpose."
  • $1.5B goes to 35 million affected customers (~$51 each), remaining $1B to the FTC.
  • Significance: Second-largest FTC penalty ever (after Meta’s $5B in 2019); settlement avoided potential for harsher penalties and personal liability for Amazon executives.
  • New rules: Amazon barred from tricking users into Prime or making cancellations difficult.
  • This FTC case began in 2023 under Biden, closes under Trump.
  • Antitrust case against Amazon ongoing, headed to trial in 2027.

5. TikTok US Sale Finalized (Pending China)

• [06:32-07:41]
  • President Trump signed an executive order approving a $14B sale of TikTok’s US operations.
    • Ownership split: Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX get 45%; ByteDance retains 20%; remaining 35% to other ByteDance investors.
    • Oracle to manage security and cloud services.
  • Note: ByteDance hasn’t acknowledged the deal, and China’s approval is still pending.
  • Zaid expresses skepticism at the low price:

    “I legitimately thought it'd be more than 30 to 40 billion dollars.” (07:37)

6. Market Movers – Impact from Trump Tariffs

• [07:42-09:05]
  • Pharma:
    • Eli Lilly up 2% due to being shielded from tariffs by investing in US manufacturing.
    • Novo Nordisk down 1%, likely exposed to new tariffs.
    • "Kind of surprised these stocks didn't move more after the tariff announcement." (08:30)
  • Furniture Retailers:
    • Trump proposes up to 50% tariff on imported kitchen and bathroom furniture.
    • Wayfair, Williams Sonoma, and RH all down 3-4%.
    • Zaid quips: "I guess I could use these tariffs as an excuse to put off remodeling the kitchen. Sorry, honey, it's not my fault." (08:55)

7. Fun Fact: NFL Team Private Equity Buy-in

• [09:06-10:00]
  • Private equity allowed to buy into NFL teams; deal just struck for the New England Patriots (8% stake sold at $9B valuation).
  • Part purchased by 6th Street Partners and billionaire Dean Metropoulos ("the guy who invented the Twinkie").
  • NFL franchise values continue to rise; several recent minority stake sales at $8–10B valuations.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Tariff Whiplash:

  "I think everyone kind of let their guard down regarding tariffs since Trump has been quite quiet about it for a few weeks. So these new tariffs were kind of a surprise." (01:41)

• On Meta’s AI Struggles:

  "The bigger picture here though, is that it's another indication that Meta is not making any significant progress when it comes to their own AI efforts. Their homegrown Llama models haven't gotten great reviews." (04:11)

• On FTC-Amazon Settlement:

  "This is one of the biggest penalties the FTC has ever handed out, second only to Meta's $5 billion fine back in 2019." (05:29)

• Regarding TikTok:

  "What I'm still shocked about is the $14 billion price tag. Like I legitimately thought it'd be more than 30 to 40 billion dollars." (07:37)

• On Market Volatility and Personal Life:

  "I guess I could use these tariffs as an excuse to put off remodeling the kitchen. Sorry, honey, it's not my fault." (08:55)

• On NFL Team Investment Returns:

  "Robert K. Bought the New England Patriots in 1994 for $172 million. That investment has more than 50x in the past 30 years." (09:50)

Key Takeaways for Listeners & Investors

• Uncertainty with Trump Tariffs: Sudden moves on trade policy keep investors on edge, particularly as legal tests to presidential tariff authority loom.
• Inflation & Interest Rates: Inflation steady at ~3% keeps rate cuts on the table, with next key Fed meeting set for October 29.
• Big Tech in Flux: Meta’s pivot to Google Gemini highlights shifting AI leadership, while Amazon’s Prime practices provoke record-setting regulatory action.
• Actionable Insights:
  • US-based pharmaceutical companies could outperform peers exposed to tariffs.
  • Furniture and imported goods companies face new headwinds.
  • AI sector leadership and tech partnerships may reshape competitive dynamics.

Summary prepared for investors and market watchers who want fast, informed overviews on headline economic and stock market events.