The Rundown (Public.com)

Episode: Trump Pushes Back Enforcement of TikTok Ban, StubHub to Make IPO Debut

Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Zaid Admani

Overview

This episode of The Rundown provides a fast-paced update on major market news, focusing on four hot stories:

• The latest developments in the US TikTok ban
• StubHub’s highly-anticipated IPO
• China’s ban on Nvidia’s AI chips
• Noteworthy individual stock moves (Alibaba, General Mills)
  It closes with an offbeat story about the Fyre Festival brand being bought by Limewire.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Anticipation for Fed Meeting

• Markets were "pretty quiet," with S&P and Nasdaq both down 0.1%.
• Investors are holding tight ahead of an expected rate cut following the Federal Reserve meeting.
• Zaid notes expectations range from a standard 25 basis points to a possible "surprise 50 basis point" cut (00:38).
• Quote:

  “I think Wall Street was just kind of chill in preparation for the post Fed meeting rally or sell off, depending on what happens at the Fed meeting today and what Jerome Powell says in his press conference this afternoon.” (00:17, Zaid)

2. TikTok Ban—US Takeover Advances

• Executive Order Update: President Trump pushes the TikTok ban deadline to December 16, 2025—the "fourth time now" (01:04).
• Deal in Progress:
  • Oracle, Silver Lake Capital, and Andreessen Horowitz are leading US investors finalizing a deal to buy TikTok’s US operations from ByteDance.
  • Planned structure: US investors get 80%, ByteDance retains 20%. The TikTok US board will be "mostly American, with even one seat designated by the US Government, which is kind of weird..." (01:53).
• Crucial Issue—The Algorithm:
  • ByteDance owns TikTok's core algorithm, and Chinese law requires government approval for its sale.
  • Solution: TikTok US will "license the recommendation algorithm from ByteDance," with US-only app development underway (02:31).
• Open Questions:
  • How much will the US investors pay for the 80% stake?
  • Will US TikTok be "good enough to keep users around," or will they drift to Instagram Reels or YouTube? (03:20)
• Notable Quote:

  "I wonder if that means that US users on TikTok will only get served US content, which would be kind of a bummer, you know?" (03:21, Zaid)

3. StubHub Readies for IPO

• IPO Pricing: $23.50 a share, valuing StubHub at $8.6 billion—about half the original target before IPO process (04:06).

• History: This is StubHub’s third public market attempt; the last was canceled after “Trump's Liberation day tariffs” spooked markets in April (04:27).

• Financials & Challenges:

  • 2024 gross ticket sales: $8.7 billion.
  • Revenue grew just 3% in H1 2025.
  • Company lost $35.9 million last year, versus $29.7 million in 2023.
  • Profitability is slipping: EBITDA margin fell from 26% in 2023 to 12% in H1 2025 (goal: 35–40%).
  • Marketing costs blamed due to focus on a new "direct to sales” initiative (05:08).
  • Direct sales represent $100 million out of $8.7B total sales; mostly driven by Yankees tickets (only 1% of volume).

• Strategic Direction:

  • StubHub sees direct sales as a "$153 billion opportunity"—much larger than their current resale business (05:55).

• Quote:

  “Today’s IPO will tell us if investors are buying the StubHub growth story or if they see this as another ticketing resale platform.” (06:24, Zaid)

4. Market Movers: Alibaba, Nvidia, and General Mills

Alibaba

• Shares up 3% after securing China Unicom as a major AI chip client (06:33).
• Notable Quote:

  “They’re going to use Alibaba’s AI chips to power a massive new data center project.” (06:36, Zaid)

Nvidia / China Ban

• Breaking news: China bans Alibaba, ByteDance, and other giants from buying new Nvidia AI chips.
• Chinese regulators say domestic firms like Huawei have closed the performance gap.
• Firms ordered to "stop testing Nvidia chips immediately"; great for Chinese chipmakers, tough for Nvidia (07:09).
• Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is "disappointed."
• Nvidia stocks only down about 1% on the news.

General Mills

• Shares down >3%, despite beating earnings and keeping 2026 outlook.
• Main issue: growth. Net sales down 7% last quarter; multi-year stagnation.
• Company is pivoting: selling off yogurt brands (including Gogurt and Yoplait) and refocusing on pet food with Blue Buffalo (08:38).
• Quote:

  “Kids these days aren’t eating as much cereal as we did back in the day. So General Mills is trying a bunch of stuff.” (08:21, Zaid)

5. Quirky Closer—Limewire Buys the Fyre Festival Brand (09:12)

• Details:
  • Limewire acquired Fyre Festival rights on eBay for $245,000.
  • Limewire, relaunched as an NFT platform in 2022, plans to use Fyre Festival branding for "real world experiences," but not an actual festival revival.
• Fyre Festival Backstory:
  • “Supposed to be this ultra luxury music festival in the Bahamas and it turned out to be an absolute disaster.”
  • Founder Billy McFarlane served four years in prison for fraud, released in 2022.
• Memorable Quote:

  “I think we need to bring it back and do the Fyre Festival right this time.” (09:58, Zaid)

Notable Quotes

• “At this point, everyone is expecting a 25 basis point cut. Some even think we might be getting a surprise 50 basis point.” (00:34, Zaid)
• “The TikTok ban deadline was today, but President Trump signed an executive order pushing the TikTok ban for the fourth time now to December 16th.” (01:04, Zaid)
• “Now, the biggest sticking point around a TikTok sale has always been TikTok's algorithm. … the workaround here is that the US TikTok company would license the recommendation algorithm from ByteDance.” (02:03, Zaid)
• “StubHub's revenues grew just 3% in the first half of 2025, and the company is losing money. They lost $35.9 million last year…” (04:51, Zaid)
• “The company is blaming this on heavy marketing costs tied to building up their new direct to sales business.” (05:17, Zaid)
• “As for the Fyre Festival, it’s become an iconic meme at this point.” (09:22, Zaid)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fed Meeting & Market Outlook: 00:00–01:03
• TikTok Ban Latest & US Deal: 01:04–03:20
• StubHub IPO Preview: 03:21–06:25
• Stock Movers & China’s Nvidia Ban: 06:26–08:38
• General Mills’ Strategy Shift: 08:39–09:12
• Limewire Buys Fyre Festival Brand: 09:13–09:58

Takeaways

• TikTok: Ban delayed, major US-led buyout afoot, but questions remain about the algorithm and user experience.
• StubHub: IPO finally launches with modest valuation and tepid revenue growth—investors must decide if direct sales will pay off.
• China/Nvidia: China bans US chips, bolstering domestic tech; Nvidia weathers storm, for now.
• General Mills: Ongoing struggle to find new growth as legacy products lose market share.
• Limewire/Fyre Festival: Vintage tech brand buys infamous festival rights—meme potential and head-scratching business plans.