The Rundown - December 8, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani (Public.com)
Episode: Trump Targets Netflix Deal as Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for WBD

Episode Overview

This episode dives into a pivotal week for markets, spotlighting the Fed’s upcoming meeting, key tech earnings, and headline-making acquisition drama between streaming giants Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and a surprise hostile takeover bid from Paramount. Host Zaid Admani offers updates on IBM’s acquisition of Confluent, major stock movers (Carvana, Marvell), and ends with a fascinating stat about boomer wealth.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Recap & Fed Anticipation

• Stocks Rally:
  • Both S&P (+0.3%) and Nasdaq (+0.9%) rallied near record highs despite light trading ([00:39]).
  • Main catalyst: optimism around a likely Fed rate cut—now “priced at a 90% chance” for December 10.
• Powell’s Waning Influence?
  • “Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair is set to expire in May of 2026, so his commentary might not be as influential as investors prepare for the next Fed chair” ([01:50]).
• Upcoming Earnings:
  • “Oracle reports earnings Wednesday after market close and then Broadcom reports on Thursday. Both of these companies have been big winners of the AI boom” ([02:36]).

2. Streaming Shake-up: Netflix, Trump, Paramount & WBD

Netflix’s Mega Offer for Warner Bros. Discovery

• Deal Details:

  • Netflix offered $72B to buy WBD; would control “more than 30% of the US streaming market and roughly 450 million global subscribers” ([03:19]).

• Presidential Pushback:

  • “President Trump said over the weekend that this deal could be a problem and that the combined companies would have a very big market share. He even went as far to say that he would personally be involved when it comes to reviewing this deal on antitrust grounds” ([03:33]).

• Netflix’s Defense:

  • Co-CEO Ted Sarandos met with Trump, arguing Netflix isn’t a monopoly as it lacks “cable or broadcast networks” ([03:56]).
  • Netflix to contend its competition includes “YouTube, TikTok, Twitch, pretty much every social platform that’s fighting for people’s attention...their market share looks much smaller when you count all of digital entertainment” ([04:37]).
  • “Acquiring Warner Brothers would simply make Netflix about the size of YouTube in the US market” ([05:01]).
  • “75% of HBO Max subscribers already subscribed to Netflix, which makes Netflix a complimentary service rather than a direct competitor” ([05:12]).

• Host’s Take:

  • “I think those are all fair arguments by Netflix, but I think they’re still going to have an uphill battle getting this approved. Either way, this is going to get really messy over the next few months” ([05:22]).

Paramount’s Hostile Bid

• New Twist:
  • “Paramount plans to one-up Netflix’s deal by moving forward with a hostile bid for WBD, offering $30 per share...an all-cash offer at $108 billion...shareholders $18 billion more in cash than the Netflix offer” ([05:46]).
  • Paramount is going directly to WBD shareholders, escalating the showdown.

3. IBM’s Acquisition Blitz: Confluent

• Deal Breakdown:
  • IBM buys Confluent (data infrastructure company) for $11B in all cash, $31/share ([06:36]).
  • “Confluent’s tech powers a huge chunk of the modern internet...customers include Amazon’s AWS, Google Cloud, Anthropic, and OpenAI” ([06:46]).
• Why Confluent Struggled:
  • “Confluent struggled with slowing cloud growth, stiff competition and more conservative enterprise spending...the stock lost a third of its value after reporting weaker cloud sales” ([07:09]).
• IBM’s Strategy:
  • “IBM says this deal will strengthen their artificial intelligence offering and expects cloud data growth to double over the next three years. These days, IBM is all about buying companies...M&A [is] at the center of their strategy” ([07:39]).
  • Stock up 40% this year; Confluent shares jump nearly 30% on deal news.

4. Big Stock Movers & Market Stories

Carvana’s Comeback

• S&P 500 Inclusion:
  • Carvana surges as it will join the S&P 500 on Dec 22. “Their stock was trading at record lows in 2022...surged more than 8,000% from its 2022 lows and it’s up nearly 100% just this year” ([08:27]).
• Host’s Take:
  • “This Carvana story has to be one of the biggest market comeback stories ever” ([08:23]).

Marvell Down on Microsoft Chatter

• Potential Loss of Microsoft Contract:
  • Marvell may lose out to Broadcom for Microsoft’s custom chip work.
  • “Marvell currently helps Microsoft co-develop their Maya AI chips. But it looks like Microsoft might prefer to go with Broadcom instead” ([08:46]).
• Investor Worries:
  • Marvell stock “is down around 6% this morning” amid concerns, despite its own $3.25B acquisition of Celestial AI ([09:18]).
• Broadcom’s Earnings Watch:
  • Broadcom reports Thursday; news may clarify the Microsoft contract.

5. Fun Stat: Boomer Wealth Hits New Record

• Key Takeaway:
  • “Americans over the age of 70 now control 31% of all the wealth in this country. That’s the highest share ever recorded” ([09:37]).
  • “Just looking at the data, there is a noticeable jump...after 2020—that’s because both housing prices and stock market have gone up huge in value” ([09:48]).
  • Host’s tongue-in-cheek summation: “The boomers...they just timed life perfectly, I guess” ([09:53]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Netflix/Trump meeting:
  • “Sarandez must have felt pretty good about this deal going through after that meeting with Trump, which is why Netflix probably offered a massive $5.8 billion breakup fee” ([04:13]).
• On changing market definitions:
  • “Netflix will argue that their competition is YouTube, TikTok, Twitch, pretty much every social platform that’s fighting for people’s attention” ([04:37]).
• On Carvana:
  • “Their stock was trading at record lows in 2022...But today the stock has surged more than 8000% from its 2022 lows” ([08:27]).
• On boomer wealth:
  • “These days people are living longer because of modern medicine and older Americans tend to own assets like homes and stocks which have absolutely exploded in value over the past few years” ([09:43]).

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:39 | Market recap; S&P/Nasdaq hit near-record highs | | 01:50 | Jerome Powell’s term, Fed meeting preview | | 02:36 | Earnings preview: Oracle, Broadcom, impact of AI trade | | 03:19 | Netflix’s $72B bid for Warner Bros Discovery | | 03:33 | Trump’s critical comments and antitrust scrutiny | | 03:56 | Ted Sarandos’ argument to Trump, Netflix’s competitive position | | 04:37 | Netflix’s strategy to broaden definition of competition | | 05:46 | Paramount’s hostile $108B bid for WBD | | 06:36 | IBM’s $11B acquisition of Confluent | | 07:39 | IBM’s M&A growth strategy | | 08:23 | Carvana’s S&P 500 comeback story | | 08:46 | Marvell’s Microsoft chip contract concerns, Broadcom’s involvement | | 09:37 | Fun Stat: Boomers now control 31% of US wealth | | 09:53 | Host’s summary: “Boomers...timed life perfectly” |

Tone & Style

As always, Zaid Admani delivers the update with clear, energetic, investor-focused commentary—balancing straightforward news with pointed analyses and the occasional quip to keep listeners engaged.

Summary prepared for investors and business news followers who need a concise yet thorough rundown of the latest market-moving headlines, company deals, and economic shifts.