The Rundown – November 10, 2025

Host: Zaid Admani
Episode Theme:
A fast-paced update covering recent stock market turbulence, TSMC's sales slowdown and what it signals for the AI boom, OpenAI’s push for CHIPS Act tax credits, major M&A moves in tech and pharma, and a credit card rewards shake-up.
Tone: Engaging, informative, conversational

Episode Overview

This episode dives into recent tech stock declines and the AI investment environment, spotlighting TSMC's October sales and investor reactions. Zaid unpacks OpenAI's latest appeal to Washington for expanded CHIPS Act tax credits and walks through notable deals in both AI infrastructure and pharma. The episode wraps with an alert about a development that could signal the end of the booming era of credit card rewards.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Recap: Tech Tumbles, Investors Nervous

(00:17 – 01:10)

• Last week saw a rough patch for stocks: S&P 500 down 1.6%, Nasdaq down over 3%.
• "It was the worst week for the Nasdaq since April, when the markets were dealing with the chaos from the Liberation Day tariffs." (Zaid, 00:31)
• Main reasons: Investor anxiety over excessive AI spending with minimal returns, and signs of a softening labor market (with only private data available due to the government shutdown).

2. Government Shutdown Developments

(01:10 – 02:09)

• The shutdown hits its 40th day, impacting the economy (notably airports: reduced FAA flights, more delays, cancellations).
• Good news: Congress seems close to a temporary fix, with a Senate vote expected today to reopen the government until January.
• "We might be doing this whole government shutdown dance again in a couple of months." (Zaid, 02:03)

3. TSMC Sales Report: AI Boom Cooling?

(02:30 – 04:08)

• TSMC reports October revenues up 17% YoY—the slowest growth since Feb 2024. By contrast, August and September had >30% growth.
• This slowdown raises "concerns around the AI trade." (Zaid, 02:39)
• TSMC is the main manufacturer for AI chips, supplying Nvidia, AMD, and Apple.
• Investors wonder if this is the start of AI spending cooling. Zaid emphasizes:
  • "[One] month of slowing growth isn’t enough to make any conclusions about the AI demand." (03:18)
  • TSMC's CEO says company "is stretched thin and they’re not able to meet all the demand right now." (03:28)
• Big Tech is increasing AI spend: Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft projecting $400B in infrastructure in 2026—a 21% jump from 2025.
• "We have nine days to prepare for what is probably the most important earnings report of the year, maybe of all time. I feel like we say that about every Nvidia earnings report at this point." (Zaid, 04:02)

4. OpenAI’s Ask: CHIPS Act Tax Credits Expansion

(04:09 – 05:22)

• OpenAI’s CFO recently floated federal support for new AI data centers—after controversy, OpenAI clarified they’re seeking tax credits, not direct bailouts.
• OpenAI wants the Trump Administration to expand CHIPS Act tax credits (currently for chip manufacturing) to include AI data centers, servers, and grid infrastructure.
• The CHIPS Act currently gives a 25–35% tax break for semiconductor investments.
• Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO) says: "OpenAI isn’t looking for government loan guarantees or handouts. They just want a fairer tax credit structure that puts AI on the same footing as chips." (Zaid paraphrasing, 05:05)
• Zaid's take: "I don’t think many people or politicians are going to sign up for giving subsidies and tax breaks to AI companies that are working on a technology that could one day replace human jobs." (05:16)
• He sees national security sense for chip subsidies but "giving it to AI companies kind of feels wrong."
• Invites listener opinions: "Let me know in the comments if you guys think that AI companies should be given tax credits just like semiconductor companies." (05:36)

5. M&A Headlines: Rumble and Metcera Moves

(05:37 – 07:08)

• Rumble: Shares rally >10% after plans to acquire Northern Data (German AI infrastructure company) for $767M in stock—gains access to >40,000 Nvidia GPUs, a move into AI infrastructure.
  • Crypto firm Tether is a major investor in both companies and will be a major cloud customer of the merged group.
• Metcera & Pfizer: Metcera stock falls nearly 15% as Pfizer wins acquisition at $86.25/share, in a deal up to $10B (dependent on milestones).
  • Metcera’s promising weight loss drug pipeline was the prize.
  • Novo Nordisk dropped out (antitrust worries). Some analysts think "the real winner here might be Novo Nordisk, because Pfizer likely overpaid for an unproven weight loss pipeline." (Zaid, 07:01)
  • Possibility Novo "was playing 4D chess...driving up the price, hoping Pfizer would overpay in desperation." (Zaid, 07:04)

6. Credit Card Rewards Shake-Up: Settlement May Change Everything

(07:09 – 08:20)

• Visa & MasterCard agree to a landmark settlement reducing interchange fees (the ~2–2.5% fee funding card rewards programs).
• Key change: Merchants can now selectively accept certain card products—may reject high-reward (and high-fee) cards.
• "It seems like a small change on paper, but it could seriously reshape the entire rewards ecosystem." (Zaid, 08:02)
• Hypothetical: If big retailers (Walmart, Costco, Target) stop taking, for example, Chase Sapphire Reserve, those premium cards lose value for consumers.
• "Enjoy those 5x points on dining while you can, because it seems like the golden age of credit card rewards might be coming to an end." (Zaid, 08:15)

Notable Quotes

• “Investors are getting nervous about the AI trade. Big tech companies continue to spend hundreds of billions of dollars building out AI infrastructure without seeing a meaningful return…” — Zaid (00:23)
• “TSMC’s CEO says the company is stretched thin and they’re not able to meet all the demand right now.” — Zaid (03:28)
• “We have nine days to prepare for what is probably the most important earnings report of the year—maybe of all time...I feel like we say that about every Nvidia earnings report at this point.” — Zaid (04:02)
• “OpenAI isn’t looking for government loan guarantees or handouts. They just want a fairer tax credit structure…” — Zaid paraphrasing Sam Altman (05:05)
• “I don’t think many people or politicians are going to sign up for giving subsidies and tax breaks to AI companies that are working on a technology that could one day replace human jobs.” — Zaid (05:16)
• “It could seriously reshape the entire rewards ecosystem, especially if more stores decide to stop accepting these higher fee cards.” — Zaid (08:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:17 – Market recap: S&P and Nasdaq drops, tech stock underperformance
• 01:10 – Government shutdown update, travel disruptions, potential Congressional fix
• 02:30 – TSMC sales, AI chip demand questions
• 04:09 – OpenAI’s CHIPS Act tax credits pitch to the Trump administration
• 05:37 – Rumble/Northern Data and Metcera/Pfizer deal reactions
• 07:09 – Credit card rewards settlement news and its implications

Conclusion

Zaid delivers a punchy roundup of tech market jitters, the realities of AI infrastructure demand, government policy maneuvers, and headline-grabbing deals. Listeners walk away with a big-picture view: despite nervousness around AI hype and stock volatility, big tech spending marches on; meanwhile, policy changes and industry consolidation are reshaping familiar landscapes from pharma to credit cards.

For those who follow markets, tech, or simply want to track seismic shifts in how we pay or invest, this episode serves as an essential snapshot of a week full of tipping points.