The Rundown – Walmart Issues Soft Guidance, Figma Sees AI Surge

Host: Zaid Admani
Date: February 19, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a fast-paced summary of major stock market moves and company news. Zaid dives into the market’s reaction to new Federal Reserve minutes, reviews quarterly earnings from Walmart, Figma, and Carvana, and highlights strategic plays from Etsy, eBay, and Amazon. The focus is on the interplay between economic signals, company performance, and evolving competition in retail and tech.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stock Market Rally Despite Fed Hawkishness (00:20 – 02:10)

• Market Performance:

  • S&P 500 up 0.6%, Nasdaq up 0.8%.
  • Broad-based gains: Over 315 stocks in the S&P closed higher.
  • Energy and tech sectors led the rally; software stocks caught a rare uptick.

• Federal Reserve Minutes:

  • "What caught my attention about these minutes was the hawkish tone." (01:11 – Zaid)
  • Several officials floated the idea of a potential rate hike if inflation stays above target (currently above 2%).
  • Market shrugged off the Fed’s cautious stance and pushed higher anyway.

• Crypto Malaise:

  • Bitcoin continues to slide, now below $66,000 and near 2026 lows.
  • "There just seems to be no enthusiasm right now. Michael Saylor though, he keeps buying millions of dollars of bitcoin every week... it’s not helping the price though." (02:20 – Zaid)

2. Walmart Earnings: Strong Quarter But Cautious Outlook (03:00 – 06:40)

• Q4 Highlights:

  • Revenue up 5.6% to nearly $191B (beat estimates).
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.74, also above expectations.
  • US comparable sales up 4.6%; US online sales soaring 27%.
  • "Their e-commerce business continues to put up strong growth." (04:05 – Zaid)

• Guidance:

  • Soft forecast for 2026: projecting just 3.5–4.5% sales growth (analysts expected 5%).

• Leadership Transition:

  • First quarter under new CEO John Furner, replacing long-time leader Doug McMillon.
  • "He has big shoes to fill, especially right now." (05:15 – Zaid)

• Valuation & Market Implications:

  • Walmart stock up over 20% year-over-year; forward PE ratio of 45—higher than tech giants Nvidia and Google.
  • "It’s just kind of funny how... Walmart has become the hottest stock in the market right now." (06:35 – Zaid)

3. Figma Earnings: AI Partnership Powers Growth, Stock Still Stumbles (06:50 – 08:30)

• Financials:

  • Revenue up 40% year-over-year to $304M (beat).
  • Adjusted EPS of $0.08 (beat by $0.01).

• AI Integration:

  • Partnership with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google for Figma Make tool.
  • "Weekly users of the tool grew 70% in Q4." (07:30 – Zaid)
  • AI usage to become a paid feature—potential future revenue stream.

• Customer Trends:

  • Biggest clients are spending more, indicating resilience/not threatened by AI yet.

• Stock Reaction:

  • Initially jumped 15% post-earnings; turned negative by recording time.
  • "It’s never good when a company beats on earnings across the board and stock still drops... just a brutal time for software companies right now." (08:20 – Zaid)

4. Etsy Sells Depop; eBay Expands Youthful Reach (08:35 – 09:45)

• Deal Details:

  • Etsy selling Depop (secondhand clothing app) to eBay for $1.2B (originally bought for $1.6B in 2021).

• Rationale:

  • Etsy focusing on fixing its core marketplace.
  • "Investors seem to be happy... Etsy stock is up more than 15% this morning." (09:10 – Zaid)

• Strategic Fit for eBay:

  • Young userbase (90% are under 34); fits eBay’s push into collectibles and luxury goods.
  • eBay stock up around 6%.

5. Carvana: Growth Overshadowed by Profit Worries (09:47 – 10:30)

• Results:

  • Revenue beat: $5.6B, up 58% YoY; retail units sold up 43%.

• Problem:

  • Profitability pressures—rising costs to recondition used cars.
  • Management warns these costs will affect Q1 as well.
  • Stock down 7%.

6. Amazon Overtakes Walmart in Annual Revenue; Plans Superstore Expansion (10:32 – End)

• The Numbers:

  • Amazon $717B vs. Walmart $713B in revenue last year.
  • Huge chunk of Amazon’s revenue ($128B) comes from AWS (cloud), skewing the retail comparison.
  • "Amazon’s cloud business is way more profitable than selling paper towels and groceries..." (11:18 – Zaid)

• Retail Landscape:

  • Walmart: 10,000+ physical stores; 90% of US lives within 10 miles of a Walmart.
  • Amazon: Struggles with physical locations, but plans a 233,000 sq ft superstore near Chicago.
  • "Half the store will be groceries and general merchandise, while the other half will handle fulfillment... basically, it’s a superstore in a warehouse under one roof." (12:00 – Zaid)

• Speculative Note:

  • "Maybe in a few years we’re going to be going to Amazon Superstores to buy groceries and pick up our Amazon packages." (12:28 – Zaid)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

"What caught my attention about these minutes was the hawkish tone. These minutes showed that several Fed officials floated the idea of a potential rate hike... but the market shrugged off that news and rallied."
— Zaid Admani, (01:11)

"Walmart is forecasting net sales growth of just three and a half to four and a half percent this year, which is below the 5% that analysts were expecting."
— Zaid Admani, (04:44)

"It’s just kind of funny how we’re in the middle of a huge technological boom with AI and Walmart has become the hottest stock in the market right now."
— Zaid Admani, (06:35)

"Weekly users of the [Figma Make] tool grew 70% in the fourth quarter... AI hasn’t impacted their business in a negative way just yet. In fact, AI is probably going to help their business because they plan to start charging for AI usage."
— Zaid Admani, (07:30–07:50)

"Amazon’s cloud business is way more profitable than selling paper towels and groceries, which is why Amazon’s market cap is over $2 trillion, while Walmart is right at 1 trillion."
— Zaid Admani, (11:18)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:20 – Market rally recap & Federal Reserve meeting minutes
• 01:40 – Bitcoin’s ongoing slide & lack of enthusiasm
• 03:00 – Walmart Q4 results, outlook, and management transition
• 06:50 – Figma earnings, AI growth, and market reaction
• 08:35 – Etsy sells Depop to eBay; eBay’s youth-focused strategy
• 09:47 – Carvana growth offset by cost pressures
• 10:32 – Amazon overtakes Walmart in revenue & superstore plans

Episode Tone & Style

The tone is upbeat, conversational, and occasionally wry—Zaid brings clarity and some humor (“posting AI generated images of him wearing like a bitcoin chain or something”) while summarizing complex financial events in an accessible way. The show is designed for investors looking for quick, actionable insights into daily market moves and corporate strategies.