Podcast Summary: The Rundown – "Why the AI Software Selloff May Be Overblown"

Featuring Jason Ware, CIO at Albion Financial
Host: Zaid Admani
April 12, 2026 | Public.com | Running Time: ~32 min

Episode Overview

In this concise but jam-packed interview edition of The Rundown, host Zaid Admani welcomes back Jason Ware—Chief Investment Officer of Albion Financial—to break down key market movements from Q1 2026 and examine what might lie ahead in Q2. The conversation covers a big-picture look at market dynamics affected by war in Iran, spiking oil prices, the turbulent state of tech/software stocks, and why Jason remains bullish on Big Tech (“the Mag 7”). The pair also drill into topics like tariffs, the evolving Fed outlook under incoming Chair Kevin Warsh, and dispel the most popular bear cases on enterprise software and AI.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Q1 Market Volatility & the Iran War ([00:35]–[03:31])

• Market Sentiment Shift:

  • The vibes at year-end 2025 were high: strong economy, supportive Fed, expectations of easy monetary policy.
  • War in Iran and related geopolitical escalations upended this optimism, bringing energy/commodity price shocks and fresh volatility.

• Stock Resilience:

  • Despite sharp sector declines—especially in tech/software—the S&P 500 is still within 3% of its all-time highs.
  • Jason underscores volatility as an inevitable “toll” of stock investing:

    "Volatility is ... the price investors have to pay to get premium returns over bonds and cash." – Jason Ware [01:41]

2. Rotation from Tech to 'Hard Assets'/Energy ([03:31]–[05:07])

• Before the war, market leadership was already rotating out of the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) tech names and software, and into energy/materials.
• This time, Jason believes the rotation "has more legs," but sees opportunity in battered tech valuations:

  "I'm more bullish on Tech and Mag 7 than I was at the end of December simply for the reason of valuation." – Jason Ware [04:09]

3. The AI Software Selloff: Overblown Fears?

Microsoft & Software Malaise ([05:07]–[07:38])

• Microsoft singled out for weakness despite strong Azure growth; causes cited:

  • Caught up unfairly in the broader negative software trade.

  • Partnership with OpenAI shifting from asset to liability in the market's view.

  • Stock's valuation (PE 32-33) was stretched, but is now more compelling.

    "I think that is over-extrapolating, throwing the baby out with the bathwater." – Jason Ware [05:37]

• General Selloff Psychology:

  • Investors "shooting first and asking questions later" over fears that AI will cannibalize software/enterprise seats.
  • Jason calls much of it "nonsense," arguing that the dominant players will adapt, and value is emerging.

Enterprise AI vs. Software – False Narrative ([07:38]–[09:59])

• Anecdotes about the unlikelihood of companies "vibe-coding" their own CRM or replacing Office 365 with in-house LLMs.

• Even cutting-edge firms like Anthropic still rely on established software solutions (e.g., Salesforce, Slack).

  "Nobody’s going to suddenly say, 'I’m going to vibe code my way to a new Office 365.' That’s never going to happen."
  – Jason Ware [08:36]

Valuations & Reality Check ([11:08]–[12:53])

• Popular SaaS names (e.g., Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe) now at multi-year low valuations.

• Market possibly over-discounting the risk that AI will compress seat-based software economics.

  "Salesforce trading at 14 times earnings. This thing has never traded at a PE below 30..."
  – Jason Ware [11:27]

4. AI/Big Tech: Meta, Amazon & 'Mag 7' ([12:53]–[17:45])

Meta’s AI Ambiguity ([13:21]–[15:58])

• Meta’s splashy LLM launch (“Muse Spark”) may not move the needle—Wall Street remains skeptical.

• Jason: Meta is “not a classic hyperscaler” and ROI from massive AI capex investments remains murky.

• Core ad business is accelerating, which supports owning the stock, but Meta is underweight in Albion’s portfolio due to AI strategic uncertainty.

  "It’s unclear why they’re willing to spend hundreds of billions ... to be a 'me too' in the LLM space."
  – Jason Ware [13:46]

Amazon & “The Jassy Effect” ([16:14]–[17:45])

• Despite strong ROI on AI capex (per Andy Jassy), Amazon doesn’t get the Street’s full trust—somewhat akin to Tim Cook post-Jobs.
• Jason: Amazon remains overweight in their portfolio, bullish long-term.
• Comparison to Michael Jordan/Jalen Rose reflects difficult succession for Jassy.

5. Tariffs & Geopolitics: Impact on Markets ([17:45]–[21:09])

• The Supreme Court ruling on the IPA tariffs, once considered a key Q1 2026 risk, faded into the background post-war.

• Jason now sees tariffs as a much lesser threat:

  "The market is pretty comfortable with the idea that Trump has moved on from the worst ... intuitions around tariffs." – Jason Ware [18:36]

• While some tariff drag is likely to persist, it won’t meaningfully dent economic or corporate earnings growth unless extreme escalation occurs.

6. “Liberation Day,” Macro Psychology & The ‘Trump Put’ ([21:09]–[23:58])

• Sharp market snapbacks in 2025/2026 (post-tariffs, post-war) have taught investors to avoid excessive pessimism—no one wants to get caught short and miss a surprise rally sparked by political developments.

• The so-called “Trump Put” (akin to a Bernanke or Fed Put) helps keep a floor under markets during political/macro storms.

  "You can't short this market and wake up the next day to a truther that has the market up 1,300 Dow points like it was yesterday."
  – Jason Ware [22:09]

  "We put a little cash to work [at the] bottom ... Turns out that was a great day to put capital to work. But yeah, the 'Trump put' is a real thing."
  – Jason Ware [22:41]

7. Interest Rates, Inflation, and the New Fed Chair ([23:58]–[27:35])

• CPI/inflation fears are resurfacing as oil prices stay elevated; likelihood of 2026 rate cuts is fading.

• Jason reiterates his prior (December 2025) prediction: Fed will be much more hawkish than the market expects.

• Kevin Warsh, incoming Fed chair, is “a hawk at heart” and unlikely to cut rates in the near term, especially given the inflation risk from higher energy. Markets now pricing in 0–1 cuts (down from 2–3).

• Crucially, Fed decisions require committee consensus, not just the chair’s wishes.

  "I still think we're looking at zero to maybe one cut at the end of the year."
  – Jason Ware [26:41]

  "Everyone just thinks, like, oh, it’s Warsh’s decision to make. It’s not. He has to come in and convince 11 other people..."
  – Jason Ware [26:58]

8. Mag 7 vs. S&P 493: Still Bullish? ([27:35]–[30:15])

• Jason doubles down: Mag 7 (“Splendid 6” as he calls them when excluding Tesla) will outperform the broader S&P 493 over the remainder of 2026, due to superior earnings growth and now-favorable valuations post-selloff.

  "I think we've seen the correction in the Mag 7 that we're going to get ... especially from the starting point today, these stocks are much cheaper and they have better earnings than the 493. So why not?"
  – Jason Ware [29:00]

• NVidia: Not likely to 5x again, but likely to deliver compelling 3–5 year returns from here due to solid earnings and affordable multiple.

• Advice: Active rebalancing after large rallies is sensible, but don't turn bearish overall.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On software panic:

  "Right now, investors are shooting first and asking questions later, and that probably continues for the short term..." – Jason Ware [09:24]

• On market psychology post-Liberation Day:

  "No one wants to get 100%. 100%. You can't short this market and wake up ... to a truther that has the market up 1,300 Dow points like it was yesterday." – Jason Ware [22:09]

• On the 'Trump Put':

  "The Trump put's a real thing. And so whether it's on tariffs or whether it's on war in the Middle East ... that's still very much alive and well." – Jason Ware [23:45]

• On AI in software:

  "The reality is all of the things that come with software when you buy a software seat can't be replaced just because you can code faster." – Jason Ware [09:15]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:35] – Comparing late 2025 euphoria to Q2 2026 volatility
• [03:31] – Tech-to-energy sector rotation: Is it here to stay?
• [05:07] – Why is Microsoft struggling? Is it fair?
• [07:27] – The AI “software seat” freak-out: is it justified?
• [09:59] – Press releases & AI tool launches now induce panic, not euphoria
• [11:27] – Have software valuations over-corrected?
• [13:21] – Meta’s AI spending and unclear strategy
• [16:14] – Why Amazon’s “operator” CEO still lacks full investor trust
• [17:45] – Impact (or not) of IPA tariff court ruling
• [21:09] – How “Liberation Day” snapbacks changed investor risk-tolerances
• [23:58] – Inflation, Fed outlook, the Warsh era, and expected pause on cuts
• [27:35] – Mag 7 vs. S&P 493: Jason doubles down for 2026

Tone and Takeaways

• Jason’s demeanor is calm, analytical, and pragmatic, with an emphasis on filtering signal from noise and not getting spooked by the latest negative narrative.
• The episode offers both big-picture insights (geopolitics, Fed) and nitty-gritty stock market guidance (evaluating valuations, why software/tech fears may be exaggerated).
• Investors would do well to resist herd panic, focus on fundamentals, and take advantage of short-term market overreactions in both software and big tech.

Where to Find Jason Ware’s Work

• No public research, but frequent media appearances, LinkedIn updates, and commentary at AlbionFinancialGroup.com.
• Writes the economic/market section of Albion’s quarterly letter.

For listeners/investors:
Current software/tech selloff likely overdone; Mag 7 may present strong risk/reward opportunities in 2026. Expect a hawkish Fed and muted market response to tariffs, with a special watch on how upcoming earnings and macro data shift the narrative.