The Rundown: Will Amazon, Google, & Uber Withstand the AI Market Backlash?

Podcast: The Rundown
Host: Zaid Admani
Guest: Jason Helfstein, Head of Internet Research at Oppenheimer
Date: February 8, 2026
Episode Focus: Analysis of recent earnings for Amazon and Google, investor concerns over rising AI-related capex, and the future of Uber in a world moving toward robotaxis.

Overview

In this episode, Zaid Admani interviews Jason Helfstein to unpack why tech giants like Amazon and Google saw stock sell-offs despite strong earnings. They dissect the “AI market backlash” linked to unprecedented capital expenditures (capex) and question whether the companies will dial back spending or stay the course. The conversation also covers leadership, ROI expectations, the nuances of each company’s AI strategy, and Uber’s longer-term prospects given the impending rise of robotaxis.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Reaction to Big Tech Earnings and Rising Capex

[00:00 – 03:12]

• Context: Amazon and Google posted solid earnings but both sold off sharply in the market.
• Main concern: Investors are spooked by massive, rising AI-driven capex—payoffs are 2-3 years out, raising duration risk as future demand remains uncertain.

“The absolute numbers are just so much higher than what people expected… the payoff is two, maybe three years down the road and that's what investors are struggling with.” – Jason Helfstein [00:59]

• Difference from previous cycles: Just months ago, markets cheered higher capex. Now, the size and time-to-ROI is giving “sticker shock.”
• Amazon’s case: May need to borrow to cover ~$200B in planned capex, far outpacing its 2025 generated cash.

2. Amazon in the Crosshairs: Capex, Leadership, and AI

[03:12 – 10:35]

• Capex Impact: Heavy cloud investments (AWS) drag on margins for years, requiring investors to model the value based on 2027–2028 and later.
• Market Skepticism: Street estimates predict 20% AWS growth—the Oppenheimer team is at 30% based on data center expansion.

“You go, this is how much you're spending, this is how many gigawatts you get. This is the revenue per gigawatt... the analysts are just struggling to… let their numbers go up.” – Jason Helfstein [04:40]

• Leadership Discussion: Zaid wonders if Wall Street’s relatively tepid confidence in CEO Andy Jassy is a factor.

“He’s like an unproven leader in this situation and they just, the street might not trust him.” – Zaid Admani [06:21]

• Jason’s Reply: Disagrees, noting Jassy founded AWS—the core driver. The problem wasn’t leadership but Amazon’s slowness in recognizing AI's impending scale up.

“Jassy is the person who created AWS… I think you can't take that away from him.” – Jason Helfstein [07:05]

• Amazon’s Missed AI Window: Google and Microsoft moved faster, Amazon spent a year catching up but is now accelerating.

3. Google’s AI Play: Integrated Compute and Early ROI

[10:35 – 18:47]

• Multiple Engines for ROI: Google’s capex is justified faster, as money spent on compute powers search, cloud (GCP), and now Gemini AI (enterprise/consumer).

“Google Alphabet is in the best position to ultimately provide that [AI assistant] to the consumer in kind of an easy and safe way.” – Jason Helfstein [11:53]

• Diversified Compute Usage: Google’s investments are fungible across businesses, from YouTube to Search to Cloud. Amazon relies mainly on AWS.

• Google Cloud Gaining Share: GCP’s dollar growth now matches or beats AWS and outpaces Azure.

• Search Is Not Dead: Despite “doomsday” concerns post-ChatGPT, Google Search grew 17% y/y. The shift to AI-powered search is a managed transition.

“They said on the earnings call that everything around AI is driving more search engagement. And that's a positive.” – Jason Helfstein [16:22]

• Ad Model Strength: Google can slow-roll Gemini monetization, cross-subsidized by its ad cash cow.

4. The Capex Question: Will the Spending Stop?

[18:47 – 21:09]

• Will hyperscalers pull back? Not likely, says Jason—except maybe Meta if their AI models flop.

“The only company who could maybe do an about face would be Meta… The rest of the companies… are not going to pull back in the next 12 months.” – Jason Helfstein [19:40]

• Confidence in ROI: Internal models for Amazon, Google, Microsoft are precise—future AI demand would have to miss forecasts dramatically for plans to change.

“For every dollar we put in Capex, this is what the profit is in two to three years, like within a very high degree of certainty.” – Jason Helfstein [20:42]

5. Uber: Robotaxis, Memberships, and Competitive Moats

[21:09 – 25:36]

• Earnings Take: Oppenheimer cut Uber’s price target due to declining profitability as Uber leans hard into its “Uber One” subscription for long-term loyalty.

• On Robotaxis:

  • Robotaxis are a terminal risk, but their disruption is far off.
  • Critical question: Does the technology become dominated by 1–2 firms or commoditized and widespread?
  • Uber’s demand aggregation is the likely moat—consumers prefer a single, trusted platform.

“If all the technologies in one place does Uber ultimately pull that off seamlessly better than anybody else? That's kind of the debate…” – Jason Helfstein [23:30]

• Waymo Partnership: Where Waymo cars run on Uber, per-car profitability is higher than via Waymo’s own standalone efforts.

“In markets where Waymo is on Uber it's way more profitable… because it can't kind of fill all the capacity.” – Jason Helfstein [22:53]

• **Patient investors may be rewarded as Uber’s cashflows grow and partnerships expand.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Amazon’s Capex:

  “The problem is that the payoff is two, maybe three years down the road and that's what investors are struggling with.” – Jason Helfstein [00:59]

• On Google’s Competitive Position:

  “Google Alphabet is in the best position to ultimately provide that [AI assistant] to the consumer in kind of an easy and safe way.” – Jason Helfstein [11:53]

• On the Capex Debate:

  “For every dollar we put in Capex, this is what the profit is in two to three years, like within a very high degree of certainty.” – Jason Helfstein [20:42]

• On Uber’s Moat in the Robo-taxi Revolution:

  “You're not going to go check four apps… you're not going to do that. You're going to ultimately go to whatever app that you trust is giving you the fastest, cheapest ride.” – Jason Helfstein [25:41]

Key Timestamps

• 00:00 – 03:12: Tech earnings and investor capex concerns
• 03:12 – 10:35: Amazon’s spending, AWS outlook, leadership, and the AI arms race
• 10:35 – 18:47: Google’s multi-pronged AI strategy, Cloud surge, Search resilience
• 18:47 – 21:09: Can capex be cut? Duration risk for AI ROI
• 21:09 – 25:36: Uber’s profitability, Uber One, robotaxis, industry commoditization
• 25:59 – 26:47: Uber’s market aggregation advantage and surge management

Overall Tone

• Analytical, forward-looking, and candid, with a focus on investor realities, the tangible (and sometimes fuzzy) returns on heavy spending, and the competitive jousting between tech giants for AI supremacy.

Takeaways

• Amazon’s capex story is about long-term bets that the street finds hard to model, but operationally the business remains strong—even if leadership style or timing sometimes prompts doubt.
• Google’s diversified compute usage allows for a faster and more measurable ROI in its AI investments, plus greater near-term financial stability.
• None of the major hyperscalers seem likely to pull back on AI/data center spending soon—unless a major shift in AI demand fails to materialize.
• Uber’s challenge is to tighten profitability while positioning itself as the default aggregator in a commoditized robotaxi future; so far, its membership strategy is working.

Useful For:
Investors, technology sector analysts, and anyone curious about the financial realities powering the AI infrastructure boom, as well as the longer-term implications for industry disruptors like Uber.