← The Ryen Russillo Podcast
The Ryen Russillo Podcast
MLB Is Back! (Kind Of?) With Jeff Passan. Plus, How Much to Believe in the Cavs, Clippers, and Zion.
01:54:24
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- [00:00]
Ryan Rosillo
Foreign on today's episode, we've got a full MLB preview with Jeff Passon why the Dodgers are Good for Baseball Whoa, what a tease. I'm gonna do some NBA stuff. I want to get in front of this Clippers thing because they look good. I know you don't want to hear it, I know you don't want to believe it, but a larger conversation about being tricked by things in the NBA and life advice. This message is a paid partnership with Apple Card. One thing I always like to have on hand lately is my Apple card. It's easy to use with up to 3% daily cash back on every purchase, and getting the card was pretty fast and easy too. You can apply, check your credit limit offer and begin using it in minutes. Do it while watching a football game and you could use it before the end of the first quarter. It's that fast. Apply in the wallet app on your iPhone and start using it right away with Apple Pay Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch terms and more at applecard.com let's start with a little NBA today Before we get to a big hour long preview with Jeff Passon and life advice. I want to talk about the last couple nights in the league. The Clippers two nights ago beat the Cavs at home 132119 and why am I bringing up a game from two days ago? Because I thought it was that important. Not so much on the Cavs side. I'm not that worried about it. I think going into this west coast swing they're 18 and three against the West. I know they dropped the back to back against Sacramento. I'll probably touch on that a little. I love the Cavs. I'm not going to worry about it. Maybe one little small worry that I'll get to here in a few minutes. But this is really at the beginning about the Clippers. Like are you seriously going to talk Clippers? Yeah, I think we need to talk a little Clippers. And I know what you're going to say like are you actually going to fall for this? Priscilla, it's a fair question and maybe it's the right way to ask me that. But let's just break this down a little bit. So remember last year when the Clippers beat Boston and Boston? I thought that was the single most impressive win by any team in any game in the entire 2324 season. It was incredible. Clippers last year started the season three and seven. The Harden reentry was not great. Looked Pretty bad. Then they went 31 and 8 and they were rolling. We even did a breakout video. I was like, this looks like the best team in the NBA. They finished 17 and 16. And then injury struck again. Playoffs, Dallas doesn't even matter. Kawhi had 33 against the Cavs two nights ago. His March numbers, 36 minutes a game, 25, six and a half boards, three assists. He's 51, 40% from the floor. He's now taking almost 20 shots a game, which is up from 16 in February. A lot of this has minutes even going back to January as well. But look, he's right back to his career shooting numbers. You could look at the free throw attempts and the rebounding decline there, especially in the free throw side of it, and see those, those are kind of the signs of age for a perimeter score. You start getting a little bit worried when you see the free throw attempts go down. But of all the things you could look at numbers wise for him, you know, that's the only one that really jumps out. But I thought the thing that I really loved from him is there was a couple times Mitchell's trying to bring the ball up late. Fourth quarter possessions. I do think the Cavs, I was tracking good misses and some coaches kind of drive me crazy, you know, to get your ass kicked. And it's like, you know, we had a lot of good looks the entire night. It's like, are you just saying. Does everybody just say that all the time or is that a weird kind of, hey, we run good stuff. Those guys miss shots. I think it's probably all of those things. But even though I like some of the Cavs misses during that fourth quarter stretch where I was looking at it, Mitchell, like, Kawhi wanted to pick him up at half court. Like he got into him a couple possessions, like just on him here. Like he's the effort level and his movement again, you're like, this is kind of what it's supposed to look like with Kawhi. And then of course, you've got Zubox, who goes off. Norm has barely been back. He's been back three games, but it's really only been two. If you look at the season numbers for this group, offensively they've been 18th. Defensively, they've been third. There was definitely a priority and kind of switchable wings and different perimeter options for this team. Defensively, last 15th, it's been a bit. The last 15 games, I should say it's been a bit of a. A pivot from where they were. They're better offensively at 11th. Defensively, they've fallen off to kind of middle of the pack the last month. I don't know if this is a priority change or if it's just that Kawhi's coming back. So let me dig into that a little bit deeper if you want to go last eight again, winning seven of eight, the offense is second in the league. That sampling feels just like, do we, do we mislead ourselves with some of that stuff? You know who the number one offense in the last eight games. Just to emphasize the, the, the thing I'm doing here, San Antonio is number one in offense. Right. So does that actually mean, hey, that's the best offense in basketball? Well, yeah, for eight games. So defensively they've been sixth. They shoot it really well. So the point that I'm kind of making here is that have they, have they philosophically pivoted from, let's just be really good defensively and we're not going to be so good on offense. Or is it that Kawhi is back to like a fully formed offensive version of Kawhi? So the offense is just going to be better and they're going to play some of the defensive minute players. Less minutes here. The Ben Simmons thing kind of feels done a little bit. Chris Dunn does play. There's also some shooting stuff here where if you really dig into it in March, you've got Daniel Jones, Bogdanovich coffee. And by the way, I can never quite figure out Bogdanovich. I've always liked him, but then I'm like, do I like him too much? Is he actually not that good? He's always been able to shoot it, but I always thought like there were moments of Sacramento and early Atlanta with Buck Donovich where it was like, you know, he's not just some guy that spaces the, the floor. He actually is pretty athletic and he gets into his stuff. If he's shut off, he can find a way with his dribble to find himself room to get off a better shot. As opposed to some of these catch and shoot guys, as soon as you move them off the spot, they have no chance of ever resetting and then shooting again. It's another why reason why whenever I argue about shooters, I'm like, I don't want to just look at 3 point percentage and say, this guy's a better shooter than this one because the three point percentage is better. We should be able to look at the players and be like, okay, but is that guy only good at shooting from this Spot and and only good in this scenario. Or can he do it off the catch? Can he do it off the dribble? You know, again, it's why step is always going to be the standard. So if you look at the dispersal of three point shots in March, you have 14 shots from four players, Bogdanovich, Coffey, Batum and Derrick Jones Jr. Where their percentages are 52, 44, 53 and 41% from those four players individually again on 14 shots. So are those shots know could be the shooting variants part of it, but are those shots just better shots now because you have two on ball creators where Harden's going to get you the numbers, he's going to put you in some good possessions. I think sometimes he passes up on shots that surprises me and then takes other ones that I don't know why he took them. Sure he's going to slow you down. I don't need to do another hardened rant with this. But for what they needed from him, especially in the non Kawhi stretches of the season, he was a huge win for them. And again, really, I should say three on ball guys because once Norm is back to full Norm Powell, that's three on ball guys that they're all really going to like. So maybe the offense is just going to be better because of everything that we're talking about here. Zubots love them. You can get into some of the rim protection filters and not love all of the stuff, but at the same time, if you look at the six foot in sorting stuff, there's some really good numbers based on expected field goal percentage. I think there's probably always a bit of a concern depending on a playoff matchup. If Zhou, does he get in the way on some of the matchups without him out there, do they have a five out option? You know, him being this traditional center, you know, does that work against some teams, not work against other teams? Is he a guy that's like, man, he's so underrated to hey, they need to take him out for these eight minutes because this isn't going to work. Maybe all those things are on the table. I guess I just really like him. I love his effort, I love how hard he's played and the player that he's turned himself into and that he's just going to make rebounding an absolute bitch for you. And the fact that, you know, he had some plays where he was just sealing the big guys for Cleveland and physically like they weren't really going to mess him up all that much. So there's just a lot of stuff here I like about the Kawhi version of the Clippers, but enough to trick me. That's kind of really what we're asking ourselves here. Like, are you going to fall for this? Are you going to allow the Clippers to trick you into this? Because they're the seventh seed today. You know, they're a game out behind Golden State in the sixth spot. They're tied with Minnesota, who's dropped a couple. And I want to get to a thought on them really quickly. This, this whole two through eight. I mean, look, Minnesota's not catching. Houston is their five and a half back. Houston's a two seed today. But what if it were the Clippers? Houston, this version of the Clippers 72 against Houston. That's not a walkover, man. It's not. And if you're just going to hit me back with somebody's going to get hurt from that team because they always get hurt. Yeah, it's fine. The history would tell you that. You're right. But that's not really analysis. I'm just saying be prepared. If this continues through the rest of the regular season, be prepared for people picking the Clippers in the first round and then getting real wild with the thoughts. But again, it gets back to, am I going to let the Clippers trick me again here? Because it's just a lot cooler to just be dismissive and say n. That's fine. Right? I think. No, look, I actually don't think that's cooler. I just think it's the preferred way of talking about this team. But that game two nights ago was special. All right, that was special effort. Cleveland was geared up for it. Cleveland's lost last night. They didn't have Garland. You could go to the back to back. But look, you want to talk about teams not having dudes. No Levine, no Sabonis. Obviously for Sacramento, they played their asses off. DeRozan was incredible again in the fourth quarter. And there's even a little Cleveland thing there where I've talked about where I didn't care if they had swept Boston the regular season, there was no way I was going to pick them against the Celtics in the playoffs. That's how I felt. Trade deadline, they bring in Hunter. At least they have some kind of body to be able to come up against the wings because there were just too many times with the Celtics where it felt like between White, even Jrue Holiday, but then more importantly Brown and Tatum. It's like these perimeter guys are going to get stuck in Constant bad matchups, and I don't know how I could pick against Boston knowing that that's going to happen. So have I overrated the Hunter acquisition by just at least. At least having that option? There's an argument to be made that I have overrated it, but again, I just like the pickup for them. And then I was watching it specifically last night with the DeRozan matchup, because then at one point I'm like, why isn't Hunter on DeRozan? Well, that didn't last very long. And then I'm watching Hunter, I'm like, is he a little too upright? You know, is there something about him defensively, even with the length and athleticism, that there's not? Like, I'm giving him too much credit as this defensive option against the Celtics in the East. And then they were actually switching into Mobley, where he got Mobley on a layup, and then he hit Mobley for a step back jumper where Mobley played it perfectly on the step back, but DeRozan got him up on the first one. And it's like, well, are they switching off a Hunter for a reason, or is it because they just want Mobley away from the hoop? And sometimes you just want the center in the action or the power forward, you know, depending on what you want to do with Mobley, because Alan was out there with him. So look, wild night at the Resillo household last night with all these thoughts running around in my head. But, you know, you watch this many games, you're like, what would I allow myself to be tricked into? Am I tricking myself into Hunter? Am I tricking myself into the Clippers? Am I tricking myself into Zion? Did you guys see Zion last night? I mean, they beat Minnesota and Minnesota, just a brutal stretch for them the last two games. You're coming home, you take out the magic. Everybody's taking out the Jazz. How about them and the Wizards last night battling it out. They lose to the Pacers, who are missing their top guys for the most part. Obi Toppin turns into Steph Curry in that game, and then you lose to the Pelicans, if you're Minnesota. Because Zion, I don't know who he is right now, but he is so pissed off at everybody. He is playing the game angry. He had. It wasn't the steal. It was a. It was basically a turnover on a fumble pass. He picked it up, loose ball beats everybody down the court. It's one of the rare times where Julius Randle just like, I don't care. I'm not getting back for this because he wasn't going to catch him. He had a coast to coast. That was nuts. His passing where he knows if he's getting into trouble where he's going to go with it. He had a pass from the right side which was like way beyond the three point line to the left corner, like the past. I was like, how did he. Like, I didn't. I was not familiar. Look, I should say I'm familiar with his game, but yeah, I'm getting tricked into Zion again here a little bit. Or are the Pelicans getting tricked into it or is there another market that's getting tricked into it because he has been on fire? You know, look, nobody wants to get tricked. Am I DMing a redhead or is this AI again? You know, is it worse to DM AI or get a response from the DM on AI? So, yeah, just some thoughts here. And then of course, we have to close it out with the San Antonio Spurs. Yeah, there's just some teams hitting some lot like these losses for Minnesota based on the seating stuff and home court, like, they're super frustrating. But Zion just loves playing the Timberwolves. And again, you'd have to watch that Pacers game to see what Obi Toppin did to understand, like, how did they lose that one? And then we get the Knicks going out to San Antonio last night where San Antonio just was putting it on him the whole time. I expected the Knicks come back and win this game. It's starting to feel like maybe the Jalen Brunson minutes are missed here a bit. And then, of course, speaking of minutes, Sandro Memo Kelishville, 19 minutes, 34 points, 13 of 14 from the floor, 7 of 7 from 3. You want to talk about being in the zone? This dude was firing up three threes where they knew he. He knew it was good while it was still in his hands. Not out of the hands, still in his hands. You can just tell when somebody knows they're feeling it, when they start backpedaling. Not in the dismissive, arrogant way that we can see some of our favorite players do it. But Memo was just like, yep, that's in too. And I mean, Cat was getting frustrated. Like, this is the time where Cat's not closing out, where I'm like, I don't even know you can get mad at Cat on any of this stuff. So if you had never watched an NBA game and saw Mamu doing what he was doing last night, I think there was a number. He had 20 points in nine minutes. Or something. If you had never watched an NBA game, you'd be like, oh, so that guy's like, is anybody better at the game of basketball in the world than Sandro? Yes. Technically he's not. Right. I mean, I'm not going to put him in my top 100 for the Ringer, probably. And he was just happy, you know, shout out to the Seton hall guys out there. But after the game, I don't watch every Chris Paul press conference live, obviously. But I caught his answer and, you know, look, Chris Paul, elder statesman, 40 in June, I believe. So just put that in your calendar if you want to send him, you know, a nice note. I, I thought, Chris, I talk about, you know, this game a lot and let me pick that up. Is there any way I can just pick up the Chris Paul transition? Right, right. I have one final thought on all of this, and it is spurs related. It's about Chris Paul, the elder statesman of this group, turns 40, I believe, in June. So if you want to put that one in your. Wait a minute, let me start this over again because I actually think I'm wrong there. Yeah, it's maybe. How about is that embarrassing that I knew the birthday was wrong? Is it embarrassing I got it wrong or knew that it was wrong as I was doing it? All right, three, two and one. A final thought on the spurs, because I was watching the press conference with Chris Paul. I don't watch all of them live. The elder statesman of the spurs team, 39 now, he's going to be 40 May 6th. So if you could put that in your calendar, maybe send him a nice note, I'm sure he'd appreciate that. But I talk about the closing moments of this game constantly. Who are you in the last few minutes? Who are you as a player in those playoff moments where nothing is working and can you solve the problem? Right. The same way I talk about quarterbacks. It's really about problem solving. And every sport has their version of this. But I thought, I want to end this with just some wisdom of Chris Paul, because if you're not going to listen to me, listen to him talk about the levels of this game of basketball.
- [16:34]
Jeff Passan
The NBA is about margins, right?
- [16:36]
Ryan Rosillo
Just like with anything is the details. You know, everything is when you watch games night in and night out, the elite teams in this league, the last.
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Jeff Passan
Five minutes of the game is a different game.
- [16:50]
Ryan Rosillo
You know, the shots that you take.
- [16:52]
Jeff Passan
The defense that you play, everything is, is different.
- [16:55]
Ryan Rosillo
And when you learn that, you start to understand that it makes you a better team. This tournament season, FanDuel is giving you the power to take control of your bets, including the bet back token, the ultimate game changer that lets you bail on any bet that's not going your way by turning it into bonus bets. It's simple. If one of your bets is not heading in the right direction during the game, go to your my bet section, tap the token and get your stake back immediately in bonus bets. Just like that. And right now for the tourney, FanDuel is giving all customers a bet back token. Just head over to FanDuel.com Ryan R Y E N to grab your bet back token. Today only on America's number one sportsbook must be 21 and older. President select states or 18 plus in present in D.C. opt in required refund issued as non withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified. Restrictions apply including token expiration. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com excited to do this with opening day just around the corner. Jeff Passon, ESPN the Titleist Jeff Passon joins us. So look, if we start with the opening day, you know, just kind of a tradition now, like, oh, it's opening day, like, yeah, it's in Japan. You know, I could see the arguments why it still should be this day where everybody's kind of on the same page. And I think almost it's not even a baseball thing. So much stuff just gets lost in the movement of the day to day, the speed at which things move and you know, whatever, we'll figure it out when all the stadiums here are open. So, you know, is it, is it something that no one should really be that upset about anymore, or do you look at it as something where, you know, people shouldn't forget that MLB opening day has already happened?
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Jeff Passan
I understand why people would rather have it domestically, but if I'm Major League Baseball, I want to go where people want to see me play in Japan. That first game, they had 25 million people domestically in Japan watching the game. The atmosphere at Tokyo Dome was unlike anything you will see in a Major league baseball stadium in the United States. It was, it was a closer facsimile to winter ball down in the Dominican Republic where baseball is life. And you know, when we look at where baseball is in the landscape of American sports right now, at best. Third I mean, the NFL, the NFL is like one through five, but NFL, college football, NBA, then maybe baseball, you can make an argument for college basketball, even though it's mostly a one to two month sport. But baseball just doesn't resonate here like it used to. And then you go to Japan, it is clearly the number one sport. The best player in the world and the best player maybe we've ever seen is from there and is ubiquitous. I mean, Shohei Ohtani, if you go read Tim Kewan's story on ESPN.com, shohei Ohtani is the biggest celebrity in the entire country. And you have Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting against Shoda Imonaga in game one. And you have Roki Sasaki pitching for the Dodgers in game two. And I guess I would counter the people who say why would you start there with why wouldn't you start there? Why wouldn't you capitalize on this idea that we want to be where people want to see us play and we want that atmosphere that we simply don't get in the United States. So maybe that behavior can be modeled and replicated here. And I would love a world, Ryan, in which Major League Baseball domestically here in the United States has the passion that they do in Japan and in Latin America and in other places around the world where it does remain the number one sport.
- [21:02]
Ryan Rosillo
When it first happened, I did not like it. I didn't just like the idea. Even thinking of like how you would do a show and be like, it's bad if we're going into work. Not thinking about opening day as a topic today. But I think bigger picture, I can understand it. Even though I think some of the baseball decisions going back to Sea League were always kind of quick fixes, not having the eye on the long term part of this. But if you look at attendance increase back to back years for the first time in over a decade, if you look at some of the local television deals that you've seen, you know, it's. It might not. You know, I always joked about this, but if you worked for baseball, if you worked on the business side of things and said in the room like maybe it's not a bad thing if we own this one or two month part nationally because I still think the baseball playoffs product itself is up there with, with, I think anything, you know, it's tough to argue with, with playoff hockey, but the, the drama around that, the fact that it's been expanded, which I don't necessarily love because I think it makes the six months kind of irrelevant and just the model of like who you have to be for six months as a team ve who you need to be for a few weeks as a team. It's like, well, what was the point? It's like, well, the point was we get to sell all of that local television revenue. So, you know, like, cool theory. But you know, when I look at college basketball, it is not even close to being the same. I used to watch it more than the NBA. I used to look forward to Big Monday, the Pack 12 games late at night. I loved all of that stuff and now it just doesn't even register for me. But I know with the tournament starting today, like, I can't wait. I can't wait to just dig into this thing. And that maybe just having yourself positioned for a moment is the most important thing because I just don't think that daily consciousness nationally, a baseball's coming all the way back. Anyway, look, I don't want to turn that into a conversation that we've already had a bunch of different times. So let's just pivot it to the Dodgers then. Because the headlines, whether it was last off season, this off season, the billion dollars in deferrals, them taking the mantle, I think at least conversationally from the Yankees, where you just looked at the Yankees and of course back in the day when I was super into it, used to drive me crazy. I'm like, they win because they just get to pay for the best player every single time. And now the Dodgers are doing it in a way where it's not just getting the best players available, it's deferring the money, which appears to like is a new tier of pissed offness from other fan bases.
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Jeff Passan
It is, and I'll be honest, like I don't think it's earned. And I'm going to explain why. Now, understandably, fans are angry that the Dodgers are spending as much as they are compared to everyone else. Because if we look at their payroll this year. Let's just toss out the deferrals for a second. If we look at their payroll, what they are paying players, what they're paying in luxury tax, they are going to be over a half billion dollars. And there are some teams in Major League Baseball that aren't even spending $100 million. And so the disparity between the Dodgers and not just those low level teams, but if you look at the Phillies and the Yankees and the Mets and other teams that are sort of in that $300 million range, like it's a big gap there as well. But I think the Dodgers, they understand that Shohei Ohtani is not going to be in his prime forever. And Mookie Betts is going toward the end of his prime, and Freddie Freeman is going toward the end of his. And I had this conversation with someone yesterday. If you're the Pittsburgh Pirates and you have Paul Skeens and Jarrod Jones and Mitch Keller and you have Bubba Chandler coming, you have all these pitchers who you either know you're going to trade a couple years down the road or maybe they're going to blow up, why don't you go for it right now? Why don't you not just use that window, but open it yourself? I think the Dodgers see that there's a window here for their stars, and they're trying to capitalize on and maximize it as much as they possibly can. And they have used the tool of deferrals to do so. Now, I'm not going to say deferrals get a bad name, but I think they're misunderstood.
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Ryan Rosillo
I love that phrase. Yeah, go ahead.
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Jeff Passan
Shohei Ohtani is having 680 million of the $700 million he's guaranteed. Ryan deferred for 10 years. He is making $2 million a year. That doesn't mean, though, that the Dodgers are paying only $2 million. What they have to do because of the collective bargaining agreement and rules in place, and the Arizona Diamondbacks almost ending up in bankruptcy because they deferred too much money and couldn't pay it. They put guardrails in there. And so the Dodgers have to take about $46 million in cash every year and just sock it away into an account that is going to grow to $70 million a decade down the road. Also, let's acknowledge deferrals are actually good for players. If this was not benefiting players, they would not be saying, oh, you know what? Go ahead, corporation, keep my money for the next decade out of the goodness of my heart and because I'm a kind person? No, they're doing this because what you can do with deferred money, with signing bonus money, especially if you're a team in California, is that you can get tax free. This is just a tax play by players and the Dodgers are taking advantage of it, whereas other teams in California have not done so. So, yeah, is it shitty to look at it and say, oh, they're just putting this off for years to come and that's how they're winning? Yeah. I mean, it's not ideal and it just feeds the fire of the Los Angeles Dodgers being the new evil empire. But the notion that deferrals are why the Dodgers are in the position that they're in or that they're really all that big of a deal. I don't buy that. I think it's just a tool that they're using better than others, and it happens to align with how the Dodgers operate. They do most things better than others. They draft better than others, they develop players better than others. They scout in Latin America better than others. They convince players that you want to be on this team better than others. And that's how you get this juggernaut built. It's not one thing. It's a confluence of all of these little areas in which they excel.
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Ryan Rosillo
What's new about Ohtani?
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Jeff Passan
He's pitching again. Like, we're going to get that version, you know, last year's version of Shohei Ohtani. I don't know if it was my favorite, but it was the most surprising and all this guy has done his entire career. Because I'm a rube who doesn't believe that outliers, like, I can't predict outliers. I couldn't have ever fathomed what Ohtani's career would look like at the beginning. Didn't think he could go both ways. Wrote a story his first spring training saying he couldn't hit, felt like an asshole pretty quick and eventually got back to the point where it's like, okay, yeah, he can do this. Then it was, there's no way he can sustain this. His body can't hold up. Mentally, he can't hold up. Guess what? He can. Then he blows out for a second time, has Tommy John surgery. And as he's coming back, it's like, okay, we're going to get to see him like as a full, full time hitter now. I wasn't thinking about stolen bases, though. And he goes and rips 59 bags the next year and becomes the first 5050 player. What Shohei Ohtani does, I think better than anything is he, he, he fits himself into where his skills are at that point. He has all of the tools in the world, right? He can do anything on a baseball field. But last year he couldn't pitch, so he needed to become a different player. And he is the ultimate chameleon this year. He's coming back. He's going to be on the mound, looks like in May or so. And we're going to get to see that Apex version of himself, hopefully where he is still an elite starting pitcher and remains one of the best bats in the big leagues. And the fact, Ryan, that he got through last season, remember the beginning of last Season when we were talking, it was like, is he going to get, you know, caught up in this disaster of a gambling scandal that is reaching, like, the highest levels of Las Vegas and has had a federal investigation into it for two years? And then we hear his translator on tape calling up a bank and taking out money in his name. And it turns out, you know, Occam's Razor said, well, if this guy is connected to Ohtani, he's probably. No, actually, it looks like everything was above board and he was just stupidly innocent and didn't keep his eye on his money. I don't know what it's like to have hundreds of millions of dollars, but I don't know that I would be going and checking my bank account all the time if I was so rich I didn't have to worry about anything. I'm not going to give him a pass. Like, we're adults, we should know where our funds are. But at the same time, being able to get through that, all the noise and then turn in the season he did. As exceptional as Shohei Ohtani is at all the physical elements of baseball, Ryan, the mental capacity and the fortitude that guy has to go out and do what he does on a daily basis is, to me, every bit as impressive.
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Ryan Rosillo
I want to get to some of the challengers in the National League, to the Dodgers, because on paper, it's just hard to say, hey, this team matches up with them well. But look, on paper, last year you wouldn't expect the Mets to make it to the NLCS. They won 89 games in the regular season. They get to six games with the Dodgers, and they add Soto. So sometimes you look at it going like, well, they were just mad and didn't want them to go to the Yankees. And, and their owner is looking at the Dodgers being like, well, then I'm just going to do something like this. And, and, and gives. Look, if you're going to invest in a position guy for that long, it feels like Soto is the best bet of anyone you can, you know, of any available option. Then he becomes the option. So I guess any of the angst towards it, like, I don't know the dollar amount, like, I. How much do we really care here? But what does he mean for the Mets? Like, what have you learned in having kind of access to this build up to 25 and a surprising 24 that you think makes sense.
- [31:48]
Jeff Passan
I'm in Port St. Lucie now, so I'm actually at Mets camp yesterday in the next couple of days. And the vibes are good. I think the Mets understand they're in something of a transitional phase right now. The first couple of years of Steve Cohen's ownership, it was like, okay, let's use the checkbook and bully the shit out of everyone and win that way. But it's not that easy. Like, the best team that they had was the one that had the fewest expectations on it. And so in order to match up with a team that has all of the things cranking like the Dodgers do, it takes time and it takes the right people in place. And I think David Stearns is the right person. But it's really interesting to me, you go back and look at David Stearns, who's president of baseball operations there now, when he was with the Milwaukee brewers and building that team into the consistent contender that it is now, it was always with the idea that, hey, we're going to create pitching, we're not going to go out and sign it. But I think when you look at the Dodgers, the thing that turned them into this machine was the recognition by Andrew Friedman, their president of baseball operations, that even though I was raised in the Tampa Bay Rays culture, even though efficiency and marginal value was the ethos by which we won there, I'm rich, bitch. I'm going to go out and I'm going to go and get the best players that I can. And look, Corbin Burns was out there this winter. Max Free was out there this winter. There were good starting pitchers, and the largest deal that the Mets gave out to a starting pitcher was three years, and they gave it to Shamaniah. He's hurt right now. They gave Frankie Montas two years. He's hurt right now. They gave Clay Holmes three years, turn him into a starter, and we have no idea, you know, what Clay Holmes is going to be. The stuff looks great, but I'm curious what he looks like in September and October when he's got 150plus innings on his arm, when he hasn't thrown more than, you know, 70 over the last five years as he's been a reliever. So I worry about the Mets pitching depth, especially. Edwin Diaz's velocity is down pretty demonstrably at this point, and he's never been a guy whose command has been his calling card. He's always been able to almost overpower his lack of strike throwing. So unless he's evolving into a different pitcher, there could be some concerns there at the back end of the bullpen. And frankly, they don't have a whole lot of bullpen depth to begin with. So when I look at the National League East, Ryan. To me, it starts with the Braves. The Phillies are right there. And I think there's a little gap there before you get to the Mets, even though their lineup is really, really good. When you start with Lindor Soto, Alonzo Vientos, Nimmo, like, I mean, that plays. And they're going to score a lot of runs this year, enough probably to win games that because of their pitching staff, they may not necessarily have otherwise.
- [35:06]
Ryan Rosillo
Okay, so let's stay in the analyst because I'm totally with you. I mean, when you look at Atlanta, it could not have gone worse last year between Strider out, then you got four other studs that at different times, you know, the Chris Sale part of it's an incredible turnaround considering you're looking at somebody, you're just like, could you even get a hundred innings out of this guy anymore? And then he goes down there, deals, but then isn't available for the playoffs. So if you're just going injury, correction, Atlanta's completely in play just based on talent alone. Maybe I just ask it in comparison with Philly, because, you know, Philly Short series, you think of their 1, 2, 3. Maybe there's some assumptions there with the lineup. I probably like Atlanta's talent better than, than Philadelphia. But the Phillies here, I mean, they last three years, they played more playoff games than anybody else in baseball, and they feel like a complete afterthought because they'd never played the Dodgers.
- [35:58]
Jeff Passan
That's exactly right. And I just love the NLE so much because the Braves, Spencer Schreider looked really good in his first start back. Feeling good coming off Tommy John surgery. He was slated to be the best pitcher in baseball before he blew out like that. That was in his cards. You know, a guy who led the league in strikeouts a couple years in a row, like, has been incredible since he debuted. And when you pair him with Chris Sale and if people haven't seen Spencer Schwellenbach pitch, he debuted last year, he's like frontline, frontline guy. The Braves do such an incredible job. Ryan of Schwalinbach was a shortstop and he threw a little bit in college. And the Braves ability to look at athletes and say, we can make you into a pitcher is unparalleled in baseball. And Schwellenbach's best example of that. So the notion that you can have Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach against Zach Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola in the postseason, and that's not even including Ranger Suarez and Jesus Lizardo, who are in the Phillies rotation, I mean, that would be a whale of a playoff series. And I love both of these teams. I think they're in different places though. The Braves core is still pretty young. You know, Acuna, coming off of his second torn ACL, he's not going to be the guy who hits 40 home runs and steals 70 bases. Like we're just not going to see that version of him anymore. And that's okay. He's still a phenomenal player. But beyond that, you know, Austin Riley, still a young guy. Ozzy Albies, still a young guy. Michael Harris, I think he has a real chance this year to have like that breakout season that we've been waiting for. And even somebody like Drake Baldwin, you know, this winter the, the Braves had the opportunity to go out and trade for Garrett Crochet. Like there was, there was discussion, it didn't, didn't ever really get very far, but there was discussion on a three way trade that would have landed Garrett Crochet in Atlanta and it didn't happen. But Drake Baldwin would have been in that trade. And the Braves see him not just as their catcher of the future, but a guy who's going to hit in the middle of that lineup and be every bit as good as those all Stars that I mentioned before. The Phillies, on the other hand, you know, Bryce Harper in his 30s, Trey Turner in his 30s, Kyle Schwaber in his 30s and going to be a free agent after this season. Alec Bowman, Bryson Stott, they haven't really taken that step forward. I think that, that the Phillies have been hoping for. J.T. realmuto, another guy who's in his 30s. Their windows close to closing at this point and I understand they have a good farm system. Like there are going to be some guys who are coming up. Andrew Painter might be the best pitching prospect in baseball right now, coming off of almost two lost years because of Tommy John surgery. But the stuff looks awesome. And they've got some younger guys as well, position players and pitchers where I don't worry that the Phillies are going to have that same sort of post 2008 dip where they had a few really, really bad years. I think they're going to be able to sustain it. But man, when you have position players getting into their 30s, you just can't expect a whole lot from them on the tail end of those contracts and those contracts. Ryan, you know, Trey Turner 11 years, Bryce Harper 13 years, they're long deals. They're going to take them pretty late into their careers. So I think the Phillies really Feel like this is the year that they have to do something because all they've done is go backwards since reaching the World Series a couple of years ago. They just. They. They have not improved. And getting knocked out by the Mets last year was pretty embarrassing.
- [40:12]
Ryan Rosillo
Is Arizona in play here? Because if you look at the rotation at least matching up, I mean, again, not on paper with the Dodgers, the fact that Carol doesn't hit for months, and then once they finally kind of turn it on, like this ended up being the best offense, at least we're on the score of the National League. So I guess all of us are so focused on the NLE and this. This carousel of what could happen here that it feels like Arizona. I mean, again, we haven't even mentioned the Padres here yet because. Because I think there's a lot of Padres assumptions because that series was so great. They've got the studs in the lineup. They've got the top of the rotation. Michael King's probably one of my favorite pitchers in the bullpen. Depth. There's still, like, four guys that are missing that were major contributors. You know, all of my profile stock finally cashed in, even though he's gone now. Speaking of Atlanta. But I guess I'm just looking at. At the NL west part of this, and I'm just going to apologize to both Central fan bases here in both leagues, because you're not going to get a lot of depth in this. This interview with passing. But Arizona.
- [41:14]
Jeff Passan
Here we go. Can we do. Can we do the Central right now?
- [41:17]
Ryan Rosillo
Sure.
- [41:18]
Jeff Passan
Okay. Not very good. That's about it. I mean, it's. It's going to be a race to 88 wins in both division. Now on to the Diamondbacks.
- [41:30]
Ryan Rosillo
Good. I have some AL Central thoughts, too, but we'll. We'll figure it out. All right, so go ahead.
- [41:35]
Jeff Passan
I appreciate you bringing them up, because the Dodgers are. The Dodgers are just consumers of all of our energy and all of our attention. And the Diamondbacks kind of fly under the radar. They went out and signed Corbin Burns this winter and added him to a rotation that includes Zach Allen, who's been a frontline starter for years now, and Merrill Kelly, who's consistently good. Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon fought, you know, Jordan Montgomery still there.
- [42:07]
Ryan Rosillo
Like, there's like, seven guys, you know, it feels like they're breaking camp with at least. You know, hey, the reality is two of these guys are going to be disappointing. And then there's teams that I'll look at and go, if this doesn't work, like, I don't Even like your four, your number four guy now. And it's, it's March, so go ahead back to the Arizona point. At least you can look at it and go, all right, well if two don't work out, there's just different options here for the rotation. But go ahead.
- [42:31]
Jeff Passan
Yeah, and Katel Marte finished third in MVP voting last year and at a second base position that is so weak throughout baseball, he is the gold standard right now. And Corbin Carroll, I think is still going to be the superstar that we saw on his first season when he won Rookie of the Year and when he was in the midst of MVP voting. And he's on a very team friendly contract. They signed Geraldo Perdomo, their shortstop, who's I think 25 to a long term deal. They traded for Josh Naylor. They're outfield, they just have a lot of depth there. Jake McCarthy, Alec Thomas, Randall Gritchick, Lourdes Guerriel, Paven Smith. I don't think people know this. The Diamondbacks had the best offense in baseball last year. They outscored everyone. And yeah, they lost Jock Peterson this winter and they lost Christian Walker. But this is just a team that puts together good at bats and they have matched that with pitching now and in the field, you know, especially up the middle, they're exceptional. Like it's a, it's a fun baseball team to watch. Like if there's an MLB TV team at the, at the top of the list, you can make an argument that the Diamondbacks are there.
- [43:49]
Ryan Rosillo
I love it. San Diego, step back or fine.
- [43:54]
Jeff Passan
I worry about them. I always worry about their depth. But what we need to understand is that they have the largest gap between floor and ceiling, I think in the sport. Like things can go sideways for the Padres in a gnarly way where if they don't get off to a good start, they are going to trade Dylan Cease, they are going to trade Michael King, they are going to try to trade Jake Cronenworth. You know, they're, they're almost at the point of a reset right now, but at the same time they're good enough where we could see them being the team that threatens the Dodgers. And I think bringing in Nick Pavetta, smart deal, not a lot of money in the first couple of years of the contract. So you add him to a rotation with Season King and you Darvish, who's banged up right now, the starting pitching depth is going to define this team. Because you mentioned earlier, like their bullpen is nasty. So you get to the six, seventh inning and you feel pretty confident about how the rest of the game is going to go. I will say this. Jackson Merrill is going to take the leap to superstardom this year. Like he is just a dude. He. I look at him and the swing and the ability to go to the opposite field with power and the fact that he plays center like he reminds me of a young Freddie Freeman, you know, doesn't have quite the plate discipline. But I think that's going to come over time. I think teams are going to pitch around him a little and for him to be doing what he did last year at 20, 21 years old and to have that ceiling right now, you know, Jackson Merrill and Jackson Cheerio with the Brewers. We're going to look back on that rookie class last year, I think, and it's going to be an all timer.
- [45:46]
Ryan Rosillo
Okay. We spent so much time in the National League because as you had pointed out, we were texting last night about it, the AL East. Look, go wherever you want. Go. On fan graphs, you can find the projections. The Yankees are generally the only team projected at north of 90 wins. So you brought up the NSF.
- [46:02]
Jeff Passan
And at this point, can you, can you really say that the Yankees are separated that much Ryan from any other teams? Those projections were out before Garrett Cole blew his elbow out, before Giancarlo Stanton, both of his elbows stopped working, before DJ lemayhue got hurt, before Luis Heel was out for two months. For the LAT strain like the Yankees are banged up right now. And for a team that already is skewing old, they are like one Aaron Judge injury away from being a below.500 team.
- [46:38]
Ryan Rosillo
So how many teams can win the American League?
- [46:41]
Jeff Passan
Okay, let's go division by division. Yankees, yes. Red Sox, yes. Rays, yes. Orioles, yes. Blue Jays. I mean, it's the al, so I guess Kansas City. Yes. Detroit. Yes. Minnesota and Cleveland sort of there. Like Cleveland. Cleveland's just so disappointing. I wish.
- [47:08]
Ryan Rosillo
That's amazing. That's amazing. Like faith that I mean, you would still include Cleveland after their off season.
- [47:17]
Jeff Passan
I know it's bad, dude. I'm from Cleveland. I like, I always can hope, you know, I just, I just like I just had my fantasy draft with all my friends, most of whom still live in Cleveland, and I just want happiness for them. Like they have to root for the Browns, bro. Do you know what that's like? I don't know that you don't. And I'm glad you don't. The torture, the mental anguish, the specter of Deshaun Watson just hanging over the Franchise like Deshaun Watson being called in for meetings with respective quarterbacks just exemplified who the Browns are. But I'm sorry, I don't want to get on my Cleveland rant. The White Sox is not going to win the division or the league or, or 50 games. Seattle, definitely. Texas, yes. Houston, yeah. Oakland, probably not. But they're going to be better. And the Angels know. So I think that was like 11 or 12 teams, which, it depends on your perspective. Either you can look at it like the American League is a haven of mediocrity, or the American League is really wide open and we're going to see some compelling things happen and we're going to be surprised by someone. And look, the projection systems, Ryan, they tend to undersell what the highest achieving teams are going to be.
- [48:46]
Ryan Rosillo
It gets averaged out a little bit too much for me where you just go 92 is not going to end up being the best. I mean, look, even the people doing the projection understand that. But I've said this about some baseball stats where I feel like at times the math is too big. Like it's so big that then you plug it all in. It's kind of like the win probability stuff where it's like, yeah, if you run a thousand simulations, like I expect that this team that's up 10 points.
- [49:09]
Jeff Passan
In a football game, I hate when probability.
- [49:12]
Ryan Rosillo
Have you seen. Speaking of Cleveland, have you seen a Cavs game recently where they actually post. So if a team is up 90 to 86, they post the CAS differential as plus 4 or minus 4 if they're down. So they post it on the score bug during the Cavs games.
- [49:28]
Jeff Passan
Why?
- [49:30]
Ryan Rosillo
Just in case you're terrible at math.
- [49:33]
Jeff Passan
I mean, that is.
- [49:34]
Ryan Rosillo
Obviously it has to do with the live betting, but I mean, most people can usually figure out if you're. If you have access to betting, you should hopefully be able to know the difference between some of these numbers. You haven't seen this yet. Well, you've been locked in spring training.
- [49:47]
Jeff Passan
Yeah, I. I'll be honest. I have. I have not. I have not been watching.
- [49:51]
Ryan Rosillo
Ask your Cleveland buddies.
- [49:53]
Jeff Passan
I. I will do that. What? Math isn't hard like that.
- [49:58]
Ryan Rosillo
Well, some is.
- [50:00]
Jeff Passan
I don't get. Calculus is hard subtraction style.
- [50:06]
Ryan Rosillo
All right, so let's, let's. Because I think we agree here on, on what kind of. Some of the projection stuff. And look, clearly the Yankees healthy. They're the class. That's a huge if. And the. The coal news is. Is devastating. You know, and I understand that, you know, they spent A ton of money on Max Freed. Sometimes I look at that as like, is that Atlanta just trusting themselves? Is that Atlanta? Like, sometimes with pitchers, I get worried. It's like, so we gave the guy eight years, so why didn't they want to do that now? Sometimes it's just the contract, and a lot of times it, too, can just be the franchise. And Atlanta's probably a little more in front of things than maybe some other franchises. Just the trust that you would have in them operationally. Let me ask you this one, because you touch on it a little bit there. You said something about Mookie regressing Mookie bets, right? And I don't think this Red Sox own ownership group could ever possibly understand the. The public equity loss of losing Mookie, like, even those guys. So.
- [51:05]
Jeff Passan
Well, that is so well said, man. It really is.
- [51:08]
Ryan Rosillo
But I could always understand their part of it. It's like, hey, you losers. Until we showed up for eight decades, okay? Eight decades, and then we show up and we win four World Series, and you don't want to give us the benefit of the doubt at all. But that's just not the way that city works. It's not the way that state works. It's just not the way people from New England work. And to feel like you're the team that can't afford. And we've covered all this Mookie stuff over and over and over again. I think there were some disingenuous arguments about what the tax stuff would be versus what it wouldn't be because, you know, again, but with the way the Red Sox geared up this off season, the anticipation of this. This minor league three, I don't know if you call it the big three of. Of these studs that are going to be coming up, and I don't know if they come up this year because Chorus, I think been pretty transparent about, like, I want them to be where they can play, you know, Campbell, Campbell's.
- [52:02]
Jeff Passan
Campbell is going to start at second, I think, right? It's. It's trending that way. And Christian. Christian Campbell I wrote about. I did call them the big three. So did you?
- [52:12]
Ryan Rosillo
Okay, I did.
- [52:13]
Jeff Passan
I did. The Minor League 3 is like, it's a little bit of a backhanded compliment.
- [52:19]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah. It doesn't sound great. And look, Campbell's. It's second, then, fine. But then it doesn't even work anymore. But I think that the greater question is this. Do you think there'll be a. Are we a couple years away from a. A movement? I don't know if it be a movement, because that's the other thing guys from New England are never going to want to do is give somebody credit that deserves it. But where the leadership, this group, even though some of the pieces aren't going to be there anymore, are, are not there currently where they could say, you know what? They were right. They were right about how they handled this. If you look at buying out Mookie for his 30s.
- [52:55]
Jeff Passan
No. And here's why. The two aren't mutually exclusive. You could have kept Mookie bets. If you look at the payrolls from the Red Sox over the last five or so years, in the time since that trade happened, and if you compare them historically to where they rank in baseball, the Red Sox were always, and I mean always, like top seven, top eight, usually top five, occasionally top three a couple of times. I think second. So they were always there going into this season, you know, certainly before they went out and signed Alex Bregman. But, you know, throughout the, the majority of the winter they were like 14th and even, even now I think they have like a sub $200 million payroll. When you look at it, it's like they're not pushing themselves anywhere close to where teams of their ilk are. And so I get why fans have been bothered, because the Red Sox haven't been acting like the Red Sox. They've been acting like the Paw Sox. Like, they've been acting like a minor league version of what they can be. And look, if, you know, if Connor Wong was more, and if Jeter Downs was more and more, if Alex Verdugo had been something then, then may, maybe, maybe you can make the argument that this was okay, but I think in baseball, like Juan Soto is a perfect embodiment of this. Star level players are exponentially more important than everyone else. It's why they get paid, you know, at the level that they do. And it's, it's when you look like, let's say there's a good player who's worth three wins above replacement and you have a Mookie who's six or seven more, you say that, okay, that's only four wins above replacement. But when you look at the win curve, those four wins are quite often the difference between a first round bye and a wild card series where you're going to be in for three games and you might get knocked out if you just run into two good pitchers on an inferior team. Those four wins are the difference between a playoff spot and no playoff spot. You do this for a Ticket to the dance. If you don't get it because you're not willing to go out and spend on a homegrown superstar, then, you know, what are you. What are you doing here? So they. The way that the Red Sox have developed hitters, especially now in their system, like, they have it cracked. They're ahead of a lot of teams, maybe all teams in baseball right now and hitting development. And I think they're going to be spitting out hitting prospects beyond Christian Campbell and Roman Anthony and Marcelo Meyer, guys who, because of those big three, don't get quite the shine on them, who come up to the big leagues and we're like, damn. It's almost like, remember when the Mets were bringing up Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard and Zach Wheeler and Steven Matzo, and who's the best one out of them? Jacob deGrom. You know, like, he kind of flew under the radar. And I'm not suggesting that, you know, just Nixon. Garcia is going to be that guy or Cesspedis or any of the other bats that they have there, but they're going to be good for a long time. They just could have been good with Mookie, too.
- [56:36]
Ryan Rosillo
That's the right answer. I just know if they get off to a really good start and if they were to do something this year, there will be a correction on. And I don't word narrative. I hate it, but sometimes.
- [56:50]
Jeff Passan
You know what? When did narrative grab hold so strongly? I fucking hate that word, man.
- [56:58]
Ryan Rosillo
Well, what I hate about it is we should have just updated the definition, because what it really is is national guy says something about my team that I don't like, that's probably accurate, right? Like, oh, God, I'm not even gonna laugh.
- [57:18]
Jeff Passan
I laugh because I live it, right?
- [57:20]
Ryan Rosillo
Like, I. It's like, oh, what did this. It's like this dismissive term that it usually means. Yeah, it's probably kind of true, though, and that's why you're pissed. And then you heard somebody else say it, right? It was almost like small samples. Like, once people started learning small sample, it just then became applied to everything. And it's like, how about, like, it may actually mean something, though? Is that okay? And it's like, nah, small sample, small sample.
- [57:44]
Jeff Passan
I will.
- [57:44]
Ryan Rosillo
And then just everybody repeated it, and it's this dismissive thing. Whereas if any observation of a player or team can just be completely diminished by saying, wow, it's just the narrative, you're like, well, well, how did it get. How did that happen, though? How did we get to this? Version of storytelling.
- [58:01]
Jeff Passan
I will say this. I do appreciate the passion and knowledge of local fandom because it keeps me honest. In order to do my job, I need to be able to not just go over the large scale details of a team. I need to be able to get down in the weeds there because fans will sniff out fraudulence in a second. Like they are very, very good at that. And you know, if I get narrative screamed at me, I, I immediately go and like crack my computer and start studying more because clearly didn't do good enough.
- [58:48]
Ryan Rosillo
Hey man, I get it. Because I, coming from a local market, I always knew. But I always try to remind people from this position, if you're really on it, you know, if you're really on it and you're not emotional about it and you're watching every single inning, I'm just not going to know it the way you know it. But I also don't have to watch Dame Lillard play defense for 82 games to know that when I see him fucking up on defense like Golden State the other night, that it's not just a small sample. Okay, let's not be frauds. Give me your AL west pick here then. Because I feel like we've, we did so much National League that I'm not doing enough service to the junior circuit.
- [59:28]
Jeff Passan
I, I like the Rangers. I don't feel good about it because there's, there, they're the high variance team in the American League. You know, I'm banking on Jacob deGrom staying healthy and I'm banking on a middle infield with Corey Seeger and Marcus Simeon, guys who were, you know, into their 30s at this point. And I'm banking on Wyatt Langford taking the step forward in his second season and Josh Young being able to stay healthy and Jake Berger and Jock Peterson being big impact bats there that they didn't have. And Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, you know, young arms taking a step forward. But I think the Rangers, I'm actually picking the Rangers to win the American League. If I don't feel good about them, if I don't feel good about them winning their division, maybe I shouldn't pick them to go to the World Series. But that's kind of the state of the American League right now. I could see the Rangers missing the playoffs and I am picking them to go to the World Series. So part of me wants to say Seattle is going to be that team because I just adore their pitching staff. They are, they are so good and so thoughtful in the way that they develop pitchers and deploy pitchers then. And Logan Gilbert is so much fun to watch. He's like a guy who's eternally curious, adding pitches all the time and making himself better. But the Mariners like as much as there are other teams around mlb, like Cleveland, like Pittsburgh, that didn't go out and spend Seattle has absolutely no excuse for not bringing in at least one high dollar free agent bat, for not at least making a call on Juan Soto. He's not going to go there, but at least inquire about the possibility. At least try to make this offense that kept you from a playoff spot last year a little bit better. And don't bank on the return of, you know, elite Julio Rodriguez or the, the evolution of other guys in that lineup to be the thing that carries you into the playoffs. Because what they have, can it be enough? Sure. This is, this should be a. It will be enough. Because when you have a pitching staff like this, Ryan, it's not going to last forever. We already see George Kirby starting the year on the injured list and to have the talent that they do in their rotation and they have some pretty good arms in their bullpen too, and not complement that with more offensively is an ownership dereliction of duty. And fans have every right to be pissed off that the Mariners are operating like they are, even though they have a farm system with a bunch of really good bats. And, and the winning, I think is going to be sustainable.
- [62:36]
Ryan Rosillo
That's a good transition. Because the final thought on salaries, and I want to ask you one question here on something else. So if you're looking at the total payroll stuff for the Dodgers this year, it can put them third on total payroll. Right? The total payroll number for this year. But if you're looking at cash out or cash set and side for what you were talking about earlier, like you actually still have to be liquid to defer this kind of stuff. I think it's 370 million. Is it within that range for 25?
- [63:08]
Jeff Passan
Somewhere along those lines.
- [63:09]
Ryan Rosillo
Okay, so the AL Central total team payroll is $544 million. Okay. So that was the first one. Steph Curry this year makes $55.7 million. That's the most in the NBA, right? Highest average salary for a player in the league. And some guys are going to be going north of 60, 70 million in a couple years. Right. The A's total payroll for this year, I was surprised it was this high, is 58 million. So Steph is just about 2 something million off of where the A's are at he has the same salary as the entire White White Sox payroll and he makes 8 million more than the Marlins entire payroll. The Marlins payroll, which is last in MLB this year, and I love doing this, is 47 million that would have been 19th in MLB payroll in 2000. It's unbelievable. We can have this and you know, look it, if you, if you want the floor, you need the cap. We've been over this a million different times. But I mean, do the Marlins, are they just in business for revenue sharing?
- [64:17]
Jeff Passan
It looks that way, doesn't it?
- [64:19]
Ryan Rosillo
And, and you can what a great deal, right? I get to buy a baseball team, I own it.
- [64:23]
Jeff Passan
I get to, I don't have to.
- [64:24]
Ryan Rosillo
Pay for any players and then everybody else has to write me a check. It's awesome.
- [64:28]
Jeff Passan
Now I, this is not to stick up for what they're doing by any means, but one thing that the Marlins are spending their money on is internal stuff. Like they had to go and essentially modernized the organization. They had been an anti diluvian baseball franchise for like the entirety of their existence. They, they operated like a 1990s or early 2000s baseball team. The analytics department was practically non existent and you know, the work that they had done on the minor league side and with technology where, you know, all these other organizations are using it to make their players better, there was none of that with the Marlins. That being said, it's just going to get really ugly there and tanking isn't quite like it used to be in Major League Baseball. I think the draft pick penalties and the lottery that they instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement have done a pretty good job. But you're going to see like two, three teams every year that are just bottoming out. The White Sox are in that right now and the Marlins are in it right now. The Rockies, they're just terrible and just poorly, poorly run. So there's no excuse there. But yeah, it's ugly. Like it's ugly having 110 plus lost team, it's ugly. Seeing what the White Sox did last year, you know, losing 121 and I wish everyone could be competitive. But the fact, Ryan, that we talked about as many teams as there are in the American League that can win the league and as many teams that are competitive in the National League beyond those top teams in the east, in the west, you can make an argument that just about all five of the central teams could win that division too. I feel like for the narrative that exists about the Dodgers being this unbeatable super team, we know that at the end of the day, the best, like the best, best, best teams have about a 25% chance of winning the World Series because the playoffs are just the great equalizer. And that's why teams want to be competitive enough to get in, but don't necessarily want to spend to the level that puts them at the top of the division. Because, you know, two years ago we saw the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks, two wildcard teams in the World Series. It doesn't take the best team to win in baseball. And if you are not going to have at least a hope of the playoffs, then. Then bottoming out is. Is what a lot of shameless franchises are going to do. It's why I. Honestly, it's why I appreciate the teams that even when they don't have a ton of hope, they don't just go and tear everything down to the studs. The A's for a long time were like that. Like that was Billy Beane's ethos. You know, I do not want to have a terrible team. Now, John Fisher made that happen eventually when. When he turned him into the major league Cleveland Indians. But most teams, I think, would go that route if that is the best option that they see for getting back on top. And the fact that that's still a path, it's kind of gross.
- [68:06]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah. Look, people should be far more outraged about these teams. I'm glad you added that extra context on the Marlins of kind of at least trying to just turn this steamer around. Right. Of like, let's at least lay. Lay a foundation for having a group that's up to date. So I'm glad you added that. So maybe, you know, it's not entirely fair to just look at the payroll number that. That way. But overall, people should be far more upset about these teams in particular. You know, we don't even have to attach a city to it. The cycle of teams where ownership is like, we don't even. Like, we're not even pretending. You should be far more upset about that than you should be the Dodgers. But these teams are so irrelevant, they're just not going to get the same amount of print space. All right, can I say one more.
- [68:44]
Jeff Passan
Thing before you jump in here?
- [68:45]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah.
- [68:47]
Jeff Passan
Your face when I said anti duvian was my favorite thing I'm going to see all day. It was beautiful. That was. That was the moment where my, My son, he calls him asshole words. He's like, don't use an asshole word, dad. Like, that was an asshole word and I apologize for using it.
- [69:12]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, we Were we have a big thing coming out on floods on tomorrow's YouTube page. So I've also, I also feel, I.
- [69:23]
Jeff Passan
Also feel bad for cursing a lot after hearing the, you know, like, is, is life advice really going to be a curse free zone?
- [69:33]
Ryan Rosillo
No, we, I mean, I don't even.
- [69:34]
Jeff Passan
Know for one second. I'm sorry.
- [69:38]
Ryan Rosillo
We did kind of a mailbag YouTube thing that's coming out tomorrow and we, I think we were seeing sort of how long we could go or I thought I did. And then I guess I didn't even realize that I swore because then Kyle was like, no, you already did it. And I went, oh, I didn't even. I didn't realize. So I don't think you have to worry about that. What we do want to do, though, is I think this summer when you come back and visit us, maybe a little trade deadline hot zone. You want to do life advice with us, right?
- [70:06]
Jeff Passan
Desperately. Yes. I like, I talk along to it and as, like, as the answers are coming out, I'm like, okay, here's what I would say. And here, you know, like, there's a point, I feel like it started when I was 40, where suddenly I thought that dispensing advice is like the most noble thing that you can do. And I feel like I'm a generally stable and decent person, which is the place from which you have to do that. Like, those are the two tenets that you need. You need decency.
- [70:41]
Ryan Rosillo
Incredible, right?
- [70:43]
Jeff Passan
Yes. Yeah. I'm a high. I'm a high floor guy. Low ceiling guy. High floor guy, though.
- [70:48]
Ryan Rosillo
All right. Before the last thing that I. We've kept you here a while, just give us your World Series pick.
- [70:55]
Jeff Passan
Dodgers over Rangers. I feel good about the Dodgers part. I don't feel good about the Rangers part. I, I would love to be the guy that picks someone that isn't. That isn't the Dodgers. But I'm sorry, I feel like that would just be disingenuous. They're the best team in baseball. I'm going to pick the best team in baseball. I'm going to pick Ohtani to win National League mvp. Even though, like, they're going to be plenty of other guys thrown out. No, he's the best player. It's. It's really that simple. And again, the chances that the Dodgers win, not as great as people think. But hey, I'll, I'll stick with them.
- [71:34]
Ryan Rosillo
Take us through Jeff Pass and making national headlines this week on the Jackie Robinson story. So just set it up and give us the timeline and what ultimately was the right conclusion?
- [71:49]
Jeff Passan
It was 11 o'clock. I was sitting on my bed in my hotel room, and I think somebody had tagged me on Twitter, saying, like, did you see this? And it was a webpage on the Department of Defense's website that was under Sports Heroes who Served. They have a whole, like, array of stories about athletes who had been in the military. And it was a page dedicated to Jackie Robinson's military history, and it was dead. And I had read stories the previous couple of days at Axios and the Washington Post about the Navajo Code talkers, about a soldier who planted the flag at Iwo Jima, all of whom, their pages got erased, too. And my instinct in situations like that is I almost have to get acknowledgement from the people who were involved that, yes, this is really true, because I'm so scared that I'm. That the Internet's a place that can trick you. Like, it can trick you so many different ways. And I don't want to be the guy who gets sent held. You know, Like, I just. I. I don't want to be that guy because, you know, in my job, what's the most important thing getting things right? Like, my entire reputation, whatever it may be, has been built on the foundation that I get things right. And I, you know, I care about that, and it's the most important thing. So I don't want to go out accusing the government of doing something. But then I tried to type in the URL of where that was, and when it redirected to a new URL that had DEI in front of sports heroes, I was like, well, this is very interesting. So the first thing I do is I emailed the Department of Defense asking a few questions and seeking comment on it. And then I tweeted about it. And I think it was like 11:30 at night. And, you know, when a story is going to get traction, I don't care about social engagement. I'm way, way past that. I have a lot of followers. It's going to happen to me, though. This is a story that is about principle. And I thought we all agreed that Jackie Robinson's an American hero. I thought that was a settled point. And not somebody who needs to be used for political reasons, not somebody whose legacy needs to be diminished in any way because our current president has a particular perspective on diversity, equity, and inclusion. Like, I understand, like, the both sides of the DEI argument have gotten so nasty and so unfortunate. And to see it used as a cudgel the way it is, and to see Jackie Robinson be brought into it. Jackie Robinson is like the foremost example of why inclusion is a good thing. Like, if we go and look at what Bob Kendrick, who runs the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, who's a brilliant human being and just a wonderful contributing member to a better society, Bob, said yesterday, the civil rights movement started with Jackie Robinson. Baseball integrating was, to me, if not the most seminal moment in American sports history, certainly among them. And to see it's not just like that. The DEI label was a fix there, but to see it affixed in such a negative connotation to somebody in Jackie Robinson who did so many great things for our country and for our world. It doesn't matter how I felt about it. This is a story. And so I was. We did not@espn.com print anything initially. A couple other sites ran with it. But our processes. We want to hear from the officials who are involved in this. And so we're waiting for comment from the DoD, and I'm in the Mets clubhouse and I go out to my car and I brought my computer along and I open it and the emails there and open up the email, and I see the. I see this statement from the press secretary at the Pentagon, and it's like, wow. Like, I, you know, I was. I don't know what to think about politicians now. Like, politics is so broken in every way imaginable. But when you see statements from press secretaries in Washington, historically, they tend to be measured. They tend to have a little gravitas to it. This was just like bomb throwing. And so I, you know, I presented it very simply. There was no opinion involved in this. Like, I'm not here to be an advocate journalist. That was not the point of this. There's something that's going on in the world right now, and when it intersects with sports, I need to be the person who uses the credibility that, thank God, I've been able to build up over time to tell the truth. And so I'm not seeking any sort of, you know, justice here. I'm not seeking any sort of remuneration. Like, it's not that. It's that Jackie Robinson is such an important part of telling the American story. And it felt like this was being whitewashed. And, you know, regardless of what the excuse is that they had, it's back up right now. But sometimes people tell on themselves, and it felt like they told on themselves here.
- [78:19]
Ryan Rosillo
The fact that it's back up with this administration tells you that even someone on their side was like, what the fuck did we do? And I just, look, I'M not super political, but I just think, like, if you're. I just don't understand the argument. Like, I cannot understand in today's climate, spending all day arguing about politics. It's like two teams, two fan bases rooting for NFL teams that both are terrible on offense. And then one fan base makes fun of the other fan base because they didn't convert third and long. And then it's like, all right, well, now you guys have the ball. So, like, that's how it feels. And some people could be offended even by that. But I would say just reading through the timeline of this story and then your explanation of, again, I would hope most reasonable people be like, why would you spend any time on removing something like this? Like, what are you accomplishing of all of the things that you should be worrying about to go out of your way to do something like this for a story that, again, I would imagine most reasonable people be like, that's a great story to be celebrated and to take the time to take it down. So, look, man, credit to you for being on it. And then, you know, ending up with a story here, as minor as it is, as forgotten as it'll be in months, just for that moment, for a couple of days. And a lot of people looked at you and said, hey, you know, this guy's got his head on straight, and they put it back up, which tells you, again, everything.
- [79:51]
Jeff Passan
You know what, dude? I like the. If. If there's any moment that I have the opportunity to help make the world just a little bit better through this very stupid thing that I do. Like, I write about grown men throwing and hitting balls, and I know that's a very simple explanation of it, but, like, we also need to understand this. This very simple thing that is the sports that we love. It ties in to the rest of the world. And yesterday was. Was that moment with baseball. And I just. I appreciated how much people care. Like, that's, you know, the passion of the sports fan sort of spilled over into the political world yesterday. And these are two things that people have tried so hard to separate, but I'm sorry, they are always and will always be inextricably tied. Sports are life. Politics is life. The two are bound to intersect.
- [80:58]
Ryan Rosillo
I can't wait for next week, man. And credit to you again on that story from this week. And thanks so much for the time talk this season.
- [81:05]
Jeff Passan
I'm looking so forward to life advice. Dude, let's get it on the schedule now. Save some good ones for me. It's gonna happen all Right.
- [81:16]
Ryan Rosillo
Thanks, man.
- [81:17]
Jeff Passan
Thanks, Ryan.
- [81:21]
Ryan Rosillo
You want details?
- [81:22]
Jeff Passan
Fine. I drive a Ferrari 355 Cabriolet.
- [81:26]
Ryan Rosillo
What's up?
- [81:28]
Jeff Passan
I have a ridiculous house in the south fork. I have every toy you can possibly imagine, and best of all, kids, I am liquid. So now you know what's possible.
- [81:39]
Ryan Rosillo
Let me tell you what's required. Just a heads up. LifeAdvice email address lifeadvicermail.com we are wearing the same clothes from our Friday feedback YouTube page show. So this is taped prior to Thursday show. So now that I will be wearing.
- [81:55]
Ceruti
This on Thursday though, just so you know.
- [81:58]
Ryan Rosillo
Well, I'll be around one baby something. Oh, don't worry. I've been saving my St. John's care for. For Thursday. I'm very excited. Very excited. All right, let's get to it. Life advice. All right, this one is timely, it's topical, it's really good. It worries need a bit that it might be fake, but we'll just go with it. All right? All right. All right. So we have the sign off from the tribunal on this one. Okay. 27 years old. 5, 9, 2. 25. I've got the height of J.J. berea in the low post game of Duan Blair when he was on pit. I love getting down low and bullying people. That is a low center of gravity, man. Yeah, I'm in a bad spot. Gentlemen. I've been married for three years to my high school sweetheart. It's been mostly great. We're from the Midwest, so we get a. We got married young, you know, it's great you married somebody from the Midwest. That is. Things were mostly great until very recently. Anyway, a few months ago, my wife and I were at a dinner party. There were three other couples there. After dinner and a few bottles of Charles Shaw, the hostess decides we're going to play a game. Somehow she.
- [83:04]
Ceruti
Two buck Chuck. Dude.
- [83:07]
Ryan Rosillo
She decides on truth or dare. Is it $2 a bottle?
- [83:14]
Ceruti
Yeah, there's. There's definitely certain ones that are two dollars a bottle. I knew it as two buck. Two buck Chuck.
- [83:18]
Kyle
Inflation didn't get that.
- [83:19]
Ryan Rosillo
All right, look up price that out for us if you could.
- [83:23]
Kyle
Arizona iced tea is still 99 cents.
- [83:25]
Ryan Rosillo
So just a great reference by Kyle. Just a great old school. Like when you could hear him laughing, I was like, there's a follow up there. All right. Anyway, she decides on truth or dare. Now, boys, let me remind you again.
- [83:35]
Ceruti
297 a total one.
- [83:37]
Ryan Rosillo
All right, great. Call Kyle once he was on top of it. We're all in our mid to late 20s, not middle school. After a couple softball truths and elementary dares, my wife and I were called upon. True. Seemed like the obvious choice. The question we were asked, who are your guys? Hall passes. Now, this wasn't something my wife and I had ever discussed, so I had to know. By the way, nobody. I don't know that anybody, really. I mean, sure. Is there someone? Yes. But the hall pass thing is a lie. Like, no dude can be like, guess what happened in Toledo?
- [84:12]
Kyle
Yeah. Gyllenhaal came strutting through. You said.
- [84:22]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, you know, I'd love.
- [84:24]
Ceruti
I.
- [84:24]
Ryan Rosillo
That would actually be a funny story. I mean, it's. I always believe, like, there's whatever could happen. Like, yeah, somebody probably did that. There's some guy in Vegas at some convention. You know, he still has enough. I don't know. I mean, most normal of people can. Can't pull off any of this stuff, but, like, the one guy that did and then came home and told his wife, I don't know, like, yeah, let us know how that goes. All right, so. So I had no idea what's about to happen. I started thinking, oh, wait, wait, wait. Something my wife and I had never discussed. No idea what was going to happen next. I started thinking about my choice. My wife blurted out, Rupert Grint. She was met with Grinch.
- [85:03]
Jeff Passan
Yeah.
- [85:03]
Ceruti
Get out of here.
- [85:04]
Ryan Rosillo
She was met with a chorus of laughter. By the way, that's an amazing pick, because you can't even get mad at her. Although you might start thinking about yourself and be like, am I not as attractive as I thought I was? All right, so. She was met with a chorus of laughter and flabbergasted visages. I immediately quipped that she had my full blessing to hook up with Ron Weasley whenever she wanted to. My wife's crazy response bought me more time to think of my answer. I ran my tongue over the teeth fuzz caused by the chintzy cabernet sauvignon I consumed all night as I pondered the question. Maybe it was the buzz I was feeling, but I shrugged and nonchalantly said, my hall pass was Bonnie Blue.
- [85:50]
Kyle
Oh, boy.
- [85:51]
Ceruti
Dude, that's like, that could actually happen. That sucks.
- [85:54]
Kyle
Yeah, dude.
- [85:57]
Ryan Rosillo
Who's that? All the women asked in unison. This guy's very, you know, eloquent. As the men's faces all switched to sly smiles. A blonde adult film actress, my buddy, answered matter of factly. The women's inquisitive looks turned to looks of disgust. My wife even called me a pervert. Loudly and moved her chair two Inches further away from me. I shrugged. And that was pretty much the end of it. Fast forward to a week ago. See, I don't know. Maybe it's real.
- [86:26]
Ceruti
We'll keep this could be fake though. If it goes the way I think you're gonna say.
- [86:30]
Ryan Rosillo
Well, his writing break. Yeah, like he's. He's such a good writer that I would wonder if he just was like, I'm gonna screw with these guys and do a short story. So let's just keep rolling here. One of my buddies is getting married in May and his bachelor party is in Cabo.
- [86:42]
Kyle
There we go.
- [86:44]
Ryan Rosillo
Some of us married guys were dreading going as it was a notorious spring break destination. Do we really want to be surrounded by 18 to 20 year old D bags for a few days? Ultimately, 12 of us decided to go and pretend we were in college again. 12, good number. The first night we all arrived and kept it relatively low key and just hung out at the main bar at the resort. The next day we obviously had to hit up the beach early and live it up. We got to the beach early and started drinking and doing some normal beach activities. After a few hours, we noticed a big commotion on the beach a little ways from where we were set up. Me and two other guys went in to investigate, thinking maybe a celebrity was there. Me and my boys were in for a shock. Right hand to God, Bonnie Blue was there. Now I believe this guy. Midwest. Right hand of God. I don't think he would lie to God. Nope, Bonnie Blue was there. She had two big hulking security guards on her side and a sea of ravenous college bros encircling her. One of my buddies lit up like a Christmas tree and elbowed me in the ribs. Dude, your hall pass. Go for it, dude. My cheeks turned as red as Rupert Grint's pubes. No, dude. She slept with a thousand dudes in a day. I don't want any part of that again. This can be the ego of man. Here. Be like, oh, so that's why you didn't have sex with her.
- [87:56]
Kyle
Not the Only Fans account.
- [87:58]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, but the email continues. My buddy combated my words and screamed, hey, Bonnie, you're his hall pass. You're his hall pass. He then pointed down at me. Wouldn't you know it in my. My bombastic buddy drew everyone's attention. Bonnie turned and looked at us with a smile and pointed at me. I'm shitting my bathing suit. As she beckons me over to her. Before I could protest more, I felt hundreds of hands pushing me towards her as if I'm Lisan Al Gaib. Next thing I know, I'm being eyed up and down by Rocksteady and Bebop, her security guards, and I'm standing in front of this blue eyed British beauty. So I'm your hall pass, am I? What would you do with me if we were alone? I'm dumbfounded that I'm actually in this situation. Hundreds of phones are being pointed at me. I'm frozen with fear. I'm. I'm married. I finally stammer. If I'm your hall pass, it doesn't matter now, does it? She countered. I'm still dumbfounded by the situation I somehow find myself in. I'm standing there for what felt like an eternity. I said that I was sorry and ran back towards my group.
- [88:57]
Ceruti
Nice.
- [88:58]
Ryan Rosillo
Breathless and still bright red, I made it back to where our group was headquartered. I didn't even notice that the two buddies with me chased after me and were smiling behind me. My two idiot friends immediately tell the group what just happened. One of them took a video of the interaction. Everyone gathered around and said around, said friend with a predatory smile, and watched me make a complete ass of myself. I found one of our coolers, slammed a cerveza to clear my head. People asked me why I froze, and I wanted to forget about the interaction entirely. Well, you froze because it was something that you never thought would happen. And then in the moment. And by the way, like I've seen, well, as I say, I've seen her videos. I've seen her interactions with like all these different guys, like these different podcast dudes were, you know, all the guys just freak. Most people would just, yeah, you think you're going to be smooth. You think you're going to be smooth in that, like, she's, she does this, man. This is her thing. She's, you know, there's no interaction with her where she's going to be the uncomfortable. But one. So I. Most mere mortals would have done exactly what you had done, especially with the backstory that you shared with us. So the bachelor party continued on for a couple more days. Nothing really noteworthy happened. I flew home and had survived. My wife picked me up from the airport. Everything seemed fine initially. Quote, so how was the bachelor party? I gave a pretty generic answer and she seemed unsatisfied. I saw the video of you and that whore. What the fuck were you thinking? A million thoughts flooded into me, into my head, and the first thing I said back was, who texted you the fucking video? I didn't do Anything. She proceeded to yell at me and tell me how embarrassed, how I embarrassed her, made her look bad. She wouldn't even let me explain myself. I was screwed. When we got home, it was late and she told me I had to stay in the guest bed. And that's where I currently am typing this email out to you boys. What the hell am I supposed to do? I don't feel like I did anything wrong, do I? Just let her sleep it off and hope tomorrow she's ready to let me explain myself. I'm going to order flowers. Does that make me look guilty? Help me. Don't order the flowers.
- [90:57]
Kyle
I wouldn't do that. Yeah, I wouldn't do that.
- [90:59]
Ceruti
I mean this is a great, great advertisement for not playing truth or dare when you're married. And if you are, I mean you should have just done Jim with that. Who would you do question? You just say Kevin. She said Ron Weasley. Come on, man.
- [91:10]
Kyle
Yeah man.
- [91:11]
Ceruti
But yeah, I guess this, this what sucks is this is such a great bachelor party story because honestly it wasn't sinister. You chickened out. Everyone loves when your buddy gets embarrassed. The bachelor party story is so good. This part sucks.
- [91:26]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah.
- [91:26]
Ceruti
I don't know but I don't think the flowers is the move. I think you just have to be non yell guy try to explain. Someone else in the group is going to take the brunt of this blame for calling out to Mrs. Blue. Ms. Blue. I hope Ms. Blue. That's that like you have to put that on someone else. She seems sorry that guy.
- [91:46]
Ryan Rosillo
I'll give her that.
- [91:47]
Ceruti
Yeah, you have to put that on someone else. This was not your fault. This was, this was dudes going crazy in Cabo and maybe just put it on the dude that she's going to have the least amount of interaction with. Yeah.
- [91:59]
Kyle
Wait, so what do we think happened though? Do we think she saw this? There's no way she saw this video just like innocently online. Did one of the dudes send it to his significant other who then sent it to her?
- [92:07]
Ryan Rosillo
Like absolutely 12 dudes. The worst part about this, there's room.
- [92:10]
Ceruti
For leaks with 12 guys.
- [92:11]
Ryan Rosillo
12 guys.
- [92:12]
Kyle
Yeah.
- [92:12]
Ryan Rosillo
There's one guy that sucks in that group.
- [92:15]
Kyle
It's tough. It's a tough scene. I, I, yeah, I think you, I, you got to dig your heels in on this one. I, I wouldn't buy any flowers.
- [92:22]
Ceruti
Reflect on something.
- [92:23]
Kyle
I think nothing that would, that would.
- [92:25]
Ryan Rosillo
Project I started looking at apartment leave the search tap over studio downtown. Yeah, I'd be pissed. I'd be Pissed. If my wife were actually this mad at me, I can understand. Like, you kind of screwed up when you got in the car and she's like, how was the bachelor party? Okay, so your buddy really screwed you on this. All right? It's really lame. And granted, you know, you're day drinking, festive, but there's one guy out of that group, probably two out of the group of 12 that's just. I just hate that guy. I hate that fucking guy that's like, oh, I'm going to send this to my wife because the wives don't care. Because now it's. It's public domain. It doesn't matter. Oh, yeah, this is a good week.
- [93:07]
Ceruti
Of conversation they just drummed up here.
- [93:08]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, that's right. They don't care about you. I don't care about your marriage. Marriage. Care about your feelings. It's content. All right, so you're. Whoever did this is the guy that you should be like, I would. I would never be friends with that guy again. I would never be friends with him again.
- [93:23]
Kyle
It sucks, too, because I don't know that I blame the white. Your wife, necessarily. I mean, who.
- [93:30]
Ryan Rosillo
Like, it's embarrassing in the car.
- [93:31]
Kyle
Yeah.
- [93:32]
Ryan Rosillo
She picked you up and said, how was the bachelor party? But again, you didn't know. You're in a funk, you know, 27 years old, when the pain starts to kick in. So you know, you're coming back from Cabo. Maybe a little sun poison. Like, who knows? Like, you're just not in the clearest state. You know, you don't be. You're going to be flying.
- [93:49]
Kyle
Yeah, but it's also. You're also not going to lead with like, hey, you'll never believe it.
- [93:53]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, but you had to. You had to tell her if you had to tell her. But he doesn't know, and he's in this, this gray area of humanity. So. Yeah, I don't know, but, like, for her to be this immature and get this mad at you about this, and I can understand, like, the friend group, the content thread. Oh, my God. But you were totally respectful. You, you were beyond respectful. You, you, you, you couldn't. It couldn't have been more obvious that that is actually something that you didn't want to be having happen based on what you told us about the video and the entire thing. So, yeah, I think it shows, like, a ton of immaturity on her end that she made you sleep in the guest room.
- [94:32]
Kyle
I. I think you just gotta wait it out and. But don't give an inch. And Just be like, if. When you want to have a respectable conversation about this, let me know. But like, I'm not apologizing. I didn't.
- [94:42]
Ryan Rosillo
I like that.
- [94:43]
Ceruti
I wouldn't wait too long, though. I wouldn't wait too long.
- [94:46]
Ryan Rosillo
Okay, so how would you.
- [94:47]
Ceruti
Is this like a. Is this like a four days thing? Like, that's.
- [94:50]
Ryan Rosillo
Kyle. You're this guy. You're this guy. Wife picks you up. How was the trip, honey? Vegas was fine. And then boom. I saw. How would you handle that going back to the casa?
- [95:02]
Ceruti
If we're fast forwarding to. I'm in the guest room and I know this is where we're at. Right there was. I think. I think I'm game planning all night. Game planning all night. I'm thinking like, I'm not doing the flowers. I'm thinking about. I'm really just coaching myself up to keep my tone at a level you know, to keep. To not yell, to not to not get too defensive. But I think, like, come up with the real story, be prepared for her overreactions and not overreact back to it. I think that's going to be. That's like, you know, that's my. That's my. Johnny's full court press right there. And then I think. I think it's really just. I need to have the line that draws this horrible thing to the guy who I'm putting this on. What's the guy? Who's the guy? I think maybe I'd spend all night trying to think who that guy is. He doesn't seem like he knows who the rat is, but there is a rat.
- [95:49]
Ryan Rosillo
So maybe I'm most important thing, though, you know what I mean? Like, but I need to reflect it.
- [95:53]
Ceruti
Why this whole situation happened.
- [95:55]
Ryan Rosillo
That's deflection. That would be your move.
- [95:57]
Ceruti
No reflection is why it wasn't so bad. And then also I didn't want to be there in the first place. Like, there's. There's a group of dudes that were. That the reason that I didn't pick Cabo. Okay. That happened also. I didn't pick. I didn't want to go up to that spot on the beach, but that's where everyone was. And I certainly didn't want to call out to this woman saying the, you know, the hall pass thing. And that was Darren and, you know, him and I. I don't know if we'll ever be the same. I don't know. I think I would just be finding a way to.
- [96:22]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, but then she explain what she's.
- [96:24]
Ceruti
Worried about say, I know that this sucks. I'm embarrassed too. And also, Darren sucks.
- [96:28]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah. My fear, though, if you're saying, like, hey, I don't know if I can ever be friends with that guy again, that her response is going to be, oh, you're more concerned with your, like, she's just going to outmaneuver you here. She's going to be just tacking on every turn here where you're like, okay, well, that's not what I meant. And she be like, oh, the priority is your friendship thing. Look, it's a bad answer, man. It's a really bad answer that you picked Bonnie Blue, okay? Because as soon as the women were gonna figure out what her deal is and what the headlines have been with her right now, that wasn't gonna be a win.
- [96:59]
Kyle
You're a scumbag.
- [97:00]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah. No one in. Not one woman in that. There's probably a dude at that dinner was like, you. But he's not the dumbest person ever. He's obviously. He's obviously very smart because of just the structure of that entire email. That's like, probably one of the best emails we've ever read. But yeah, I. I think the overriding thing here is both what Ceruti and Kyle said is that, you know, the. Not. You're so in the right here. You.
- [97:29]
Jeff Passan
The.
- [97:30]
Ryan Rosillo
The dumbest thing that you did was say her name at the dinner party. Okay. And the like, should have said Kevin, dude. Right? What does that mean, by the way? That was the.
- [97:38]
Ceruti
That was the who would you do? Remember that? Remember that who would you do game? When they're all in the office and they're all standing outside and Todd Packer's like, who's that girl with the tight ass? And people were like, are you talking about Angela? And it gets to Jim and he's like, Kevin. And everyone's like, ah. And he totally sidestepped the whole thing. And that's how you do that. If you're even gonna. If you even find yourself in the truth or dare situation, you lie. What are you thinking? Great married guy playing truth or Jer, Telling truths. What do you do? I don't know.
- [98:07]
Kyle
I don't know.
- [98:08]
Ryan Rosillo
Big one.
- [98:08]
Kyle
I feel like you're allowed to say a name. You just can't say that guy.
- [98:11]
Jeff Passan
Yeah.
- [98:12]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, that's. But you have to. I mean, again, you know, this is. This is where everybody's like, oh, the non married guy is telling us how to do it. But I do think it would be, hey, I understand that it probably Wasn't a great text thread. But, like, how. How guilty do you want me to feel about this? Because I didn't do anything, right? Like, how guilty do you want me to feel about this deal? Tell me what you think I should do.
- [98:42]
Kyle
Do you think that was fun for me? Like, I was put in this incredibly awkward situation. My friends are pushing me to the circle. Like, you know, you can almost like, guilt trip her a little bit into, like, how you're not even thinking about how awkward this was on my end, trying to have to confront the situation, weasel my way out of it. Because, Kyle, you said like, oh, you chickened out. I don't think you check. You didn't chicken out at all.
- [98:59]
Ryan Rosillo
You.
- [98:59]
Kyle
You. You just got out of there, which is the right call, you know? Yeah, I. Yeah, I wouldn't give it.
- [99:07]
Ceruti
Inch, but I don't think you can wait too long. I think. I think, you know, if it's dues too long, you know, the wall. The wall might be a little too high for you to climb over, so I would maybe tomorrow.
- [99:20]
Kyle
Can you figure out what context, like, what contact, like, was this video just sent to her? And I was like, hey, look at, you know, what's. You know, whatever was. Was with Bonnie Blue and no other context. Like, what did the guy who sent the video. Did his. Did he give any context to his girl? Who then gave context to your girl? Like, is. Do you know what you think about that?
- [99:38]
Ryan Rosillo
Like, no one cares about anyone's feelings in this moment, and it's this texter. But I mean, ultimately, like, it's. It's coming back to you. It's.
- [99:46]
Kyle
You got a bunch of dudes that are gonna. That could vouch for you. Be like, dude, nothing happened. We're just messing around.
- [99:51]
Ceruti
Oh, the bachelor party group the two days after are like, we made fun of him. Providing the answers that help their buddy, though. I mean, I don't know, because he didn't do anything.
- [99:58]
Jeff Passan
Yeah, that's true.
- [99:59]
Ceruti
But I just think it from her perspective, it's like, oh, yeah, great. Consider the source.
- [100:05]
Ryan Rosillo
What if we're completely misunderstanding the closing of the email and that she's embarrassed that he looked like such a simple. Right. So. No, you guys read this wrong. She was like, how did you blow your opportunity?
- [100:21]
Jeff Passan
Yeah.
- [100:21]
Ryan Rosillo
All right. Quicker one here dominated by old lady in the customs line. 23-581-80. Player computer Xavier Simpson. If none of the hook shots fell. Apologies in advance for the long email. This one is not long, man. It's funny. The people that apologize for the long ones, they're usually never long, and the people that never apologize for how long they are are the longest emails Went on a trip with my family last summer. A week in Switzerland starting in Zurich and hitting Lucerne, Zermatt and Interlaken. Bonus Itinerary review By far the low point of the trip was the customs line. Upon landing in Zurich, got off a red eye from Boston to severely backed up customs situation. Took about 20 minutes to walk to the back of the five to six person wide gridlock line. All the way. All along the way basting in the condescending looks of the people. Taking solace in the fact that we had to. We had more time left in the airport than they did. We had made slow and steady progress or probably halfway back towards customs when a seemingly harmless woman ducked under the rope right next to me, cutting roughly 1,000 people in line behind her. I was put off slightly but didn't think much of it because I was right in front of some stairs and she looked around 70. So maybe it could have been a risk avoidance decision rather than convenience. Sure, I love that he was hoping that maybe it wasn't what it really was. She offered an innocent smile and I assumed she'd fallen behind us when the line shifted again. Little did I know she was very much on the offensive. She stuck on the inside of the rope and got right on the back of the person in front of her. By the time the person moved to turn around and look who was breathing down their neck, she was past them. Every time the line shifted she ate up as much space as available to her, waiting for this hole to open up and getting north south, very efficiently passing anybody who dared take their arm off the rope thinking Le'Veon Bell circa 2015. That's right. The hesitation and then find your hole.
- [102:16]
Ceruti
Hit that hole.
- [102:17]
Ryan Rosillo
Remember when he was like, I'm kind of like the Steph Curry running backs, except he wasn't. By the time we got to the front, there were probably close to 50 people between us and her with the worst reaction she got along the way being a couple dirty looks and loud size. Should I have said respect game?
- [102:32]
Ceruti
Dude, you got to respect that game.
- [102:35]
Kyle
No one said anything.
- [102:36]
Ryan Rosillo
Has she earned the right to do this? Is everybody in that airport that let her pass? Most of all myself A or the bigger? Are they the bigger person for not starting with a selfish old woman over a couple minutes in line? The thought of her thinking that she's winning in this scenario enrages me as it relates to the General trend of people thinking, sure, the agreed upon social rules don't apply to them. Please provide any thoughts, insight and help me sleep a little bit better. Hey, man, been there. I think any of us that are, you know, you travel enough, you're going to see this kind of stuff. And it's just, it just, it makes you so mad. I remember leaving a wedding. It was a wedding based on some relationship drama. For me, that wasn't going to be a great weekend going in. And I would say after two days of the wedding, I felt even worse and I wasn't in a great mood. I was by myself, which usually puts me in a good mood. But in this case, it wasn't like I was traveling with anybody. And so I remember I was already like a little tuned up. And there are these two dudes, a bit dramatic, saying, our gate is leaving, we have to cut, we have to cut. And there's a way you can be vocal enough where the line will kind of look around like a neighborhood, trying to figure out if that light is positioned perfectly at some sort of neighborhood meeting thing. And you're like, hey, for the greater good, should we move the light, the street lamp? And everybody kind of looks. And it's like, you know, these guys are just going to go for it, right? And, you know, enough of us have been there. Would be like, it'd be really nice of the 12 people going through the security and taking out the laptops, if they could just let everybody, you know, could you just let me go? Because there's a really good chance I'm gonna miss the flight. And it'd be nice if, like, in those moments, it all worked out, right? So these dudes are losing their. Everybody's kind of looking around, and we're like, all right, whatever, do your thing. So I make my way through security, whole deal, get to the gate. Guess which two dudes are sitting there with coffees, same gate, throwing the same flight. There was plenty of time. There was plenty of time. But they wanted to make sure because their thing is that they're more important. And, yeah, that should enrage all of us, unless you're one of those people. So. And some people just look at society as like, how can I continue to take advantage of all this stuff? Clearly, the age factor is going here as well. I also think there's kind of like a home game thing for when the person's returning to the country that they're from, that they think everybody else is just an and supposed to get out of the way. So maybe she was just.
- [105:07]
Kyle
I go here.
- [105:08]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah, yeah. So she just might have been a 70 year old miss Swiss. Swiss Miss, whatever. But you're, that was good. Look, your, your right to feel this way and I'm telling you it gets better, man. You're going to be able, like in a week you'll be able to sleep, you know? Do you really, you really want to start arm barring and boxing out Kevin Willis? But she's 70, you know, like there's a line that even I think I'd go, okay, well I'm, I'm not going this far. You're supposed to say something, you know, you know, it's always a good one. You just let it happen. Oh, but you're going to go. Oh, but you can go.
- [105:46]
Kyle
I love the out loud passive aggressive just.
- [105:49]
Ryan Rosillo
And out loud. Oh no, but you can cut everybody. You should do it. And then maybe it makes you feel better that you've acknowledged it. Even though she's going to get away with her little game and it might stick.
- [105:58]
Ceruti
It might rattle around the back there. If you don't stop her and get anyone else involved, she might be dart. Yeah, probably. I don't know. I don't want to make waves in another. I don't even want to make waves in Utah, dude. Like, so I can't imagine like being in, you know.
- [106:11]
Ryan Rosillo
What does that mean?
- [106:12]
Ceruti
I don't know exactly what it means, but I think you know what it means. I just don't just watch American Primeval recently. I just like, I don't, I don't want to do anything that could be considered, you know, ruffling feathers. So I can imagine in the customs line when you're almost through, you know, I've only really been to Jamaica and Ireland and Utah, but I don't really like, I've really like stepped outside of, you know, the country. I know Utah's in the country, but like, I don't really remember what that's like, but I imagine customs is the last point before you're like, all right, cool, you made it. Have fun, you know, leave when you say you're going to leave. So I don't know if I would want to like roll the dice at that point. The hard part's, you know, pretty much over. So. Yeah, I probably wouldn't have raised hell, so to speak.
- [106:58]
Kyle
I think you just gotta let 70 year old women, it's just. What's the end game?
- [107:03]
Ryan Rosillo
70?
- [107:05]
Kyle
Yeah.
- [107:05]
Jeff Passan
I don't know.
- [107:06]
Kyle
Is that how old people?
- [107:07]
Ceruti
Old people certain get points? You know, they certainly get points.
- [107:10]
Ryan Rosillo
70. She's doing 70 is not like there's plenty of normal stuff that you're doing at 70.
- [107:15]
Kyle
I agree.
- [107:16]
Ceruti
But I mean there's. There's an old 70 out there, you know, life alert everywhere, you know, I don't know.
- [107:23]
Ryan Rosillo
So you get to cut the line.
- [107:25]
Ceruti
No, I don't know. But I don't know how you handle in the morning.
- [107:28]
Kyle
I just don't know that that's the fight I'm fighting.
- [107:30]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah.
- [107:30]
Ceruti
I don't know how I would handle it as if it was, you know, those two dudes.
- [107:33]
Ryan Rosillo
Okay. By the way. No, that's a good point because this is also one of those like in the moment versus everybody with the chance of Monday morning quarterbacking.
- [107:41]
Ceruti
Yeah. Running it back in your head.
- [107:43]
Ryan Rosillo
Here's what I would say. I think we could close here. Prepare yourself for that moment. That's all. I don't think. Ready? Yeah. I don't think you need.
- [107:54]
Kyle
What do you like, practice in the shower?
- [107:56]
Ceruti
Know what you like?
- [107:56]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah. Yeah. Think. Think what's going to work in that moment. Think about what's going to make you feel better. It's not preventing her. I mean if person's just going to. Especially a 70 year old woman, she's cutting through everybody. Like you're not going to get to the point of like physically restraining her. Nobody's signing up for that. Right. But work out a little script. Even write it down. You know, download final draft. Interior day, busy customs. Runs away from a screaming parent says you're going to be left in Switzerland if you don't come here. Right. You know what I mean? Like just be ready. Have your line ready so that maybe next time because I know what you're going through right now. Like that person dominated you, but they dominated a lot of people. They didn't just dominate you. Right. That's.
- [108:52]
Kyle
Yeah.
- [108:53]
Ceruti
Keep that in mind.
- [108:54]
Ryan Rosillo
Yeah. You shared that loss that, you know, win share, lost share for 48.
- [109:00]
Jeff Passan
Right.
- [109:00]
Ryan Rosillo
It's not even that bad of a number for you.
- [109:02]
Kyle
Divided. Divided amongst hundreds of people. You're all right. Yeah.
- [109:06]
Ryan Rosillo
Barely registers. It's like Scoot Henderson rookie year. Don't even worry about it. All right. That'll do it for life advice. Jonathan Frius, Kyle, Steve and Wargon. Enjoy the tournament. We have our mail it in Friday coming up on YouTube so you can see the same outfits. Figure that one out. And please subscribe to the podcast. Ryan Rosilla Ringer spot foreign. Must be 21 and older. Present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + and present in D.C. gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.