The Ryen Russillo Show

Episode: NFL Franchise QB Value Rankings w/ Mike Sando, Plus CFB Playoff Quarterfinal Confidence Rankings w/ Danny Kanell

Date: December 29, 2025

Overview

This episode is a packed double feature:

1. NFL Franchise QB Trade Value Rankings – Ryen Russillo hosts Mike Sando, respected QB analyst from The Athletic, for a detailed, tiered breakdown of which NFL quarterbacks hold the highest perceived trade value if everyone was theoretically on the market right now.
2. College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Confidence Rankings – Danny Kanell joins to preview each CFB playoff quarterfinal, ranking matchups by confidence level and breaking down key teams, players, and storylines.

The tone is classic Russillo: analytical, conversational, and occasionally irreverent, with some strong opinions, deep dives, and a few laughs. The “Life Advice” segment with Ceruti and Kyle follows, focusing on holiday stories and relationship/life quandaries.

Key Segments & Insights

NFL Franchise QB Trade Value Rankings

with Mike Sando, The Athletic
[Starting at ~20:40]

Trade Value Exercise:

• Premise: If all current NFL QBs were available, who commands the greatest value in a trade? Factors: ability, age, (minimal) contract impact, health, and trajectory.

Sando’s Methodology

• Used precedents like the Russell Wilson trade for historical context.
• Contract is considered but less important unless the QB is mediocre and highly paid (e.g., Kyler Murray, Tua).
• "True value" is more about years of productivity and less about fleeting hype or contract quirks.

Russillo:
"I just don't think quarterback contracts are all that big of a deal. One, because the cap goes up almost 10% every single year... The cap can be manipulated. If you have cash, the cap matters way less." [24:27]

Top Tier (4 “Kitchen Sink” QBs)

[25:24–29:46]

1. Josh Allen
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Justin Herbert
4. Joe Burrow (with some concern about injuries)

“I’ve got four guys in that bucket… Bills aren’t taking four ones and an elite starter for Josh Allen, correct?”
— Mike Sando [25:39]

• These are the only QBs you’d get “four 1st-rounders and an elite starter” offers for.

• Debate: Would you really take Allen over Mahomes?
  Sando leans Allen ("such a physical beast… hasn’t had a significant injury"), Russillo stresses historically it’s never been a debate but admits this year the gap closed due to KC’s struggles. [29:07–31:29]

• Burrow is included due to talent but docked slightly for injuries and age (late college entry).

Second Tier (“Major haul, but not quite all-in”)

[33:17–35:19]

• Drake Maye
• Lamar Jackson

Drake Maye’s rookie contract makes him unusually valuable—“if you think he’ll keep this up.”
Lamar: Talent undeniable, but issues flagged: - Longevity concerns (athleticism will fade) - No agent, communication headaches - Weird production swings: “His two great seasons... the others are about 17th out of 40 QBs.” – Sando [34:43]

Young Star Tier

[35:30–40:54]

• Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, Jaden Daniels, Jordan Love

These are the guys that would fetch two firsts and more. High upside, ascending, still on team-friendly deals (except Love, whose status is still polarizing).

Russillo: “Stroud seems just completely out of the day-to-day consciousness” [39:19]

“Franchise Maybe, But…” Tier

[41:34–46:18]

• Trevor Lawrence
• Brock Purdy
• Jared Goff
• Jalen Hurts

All have value, but each comes with a “yeah, but”:

• Lawrence: Inconsistency, needs longer run of strong play.
• Purdy: Shanahan’s magic, missed games, sample size.
• Goff: Dependent on protection, not a creator.
• Hurts: Needs elite supporting cast, “I’m just over the Hurts conversation.” – Russillo [43:40]

Veteran & “Bridge” Value Tier

[47:20–54:14]

• Dak Prescott
• Matthew Stafford
• Bo Nix
• Cam Ward

Two proven but older/pricey veterans, two intriguing young guys. Also in flux due to team context and contract status.

“I think you could win with Dak... just not as good as Stafford, but right group, right team, maybe.”
— Mike Sando [48:54]

Baker Mayfield, JJ McCarthy, and Michael Penix Jr. are placed just below here.

Wildcards / Internal Valuation Over Market Value

[54:57–56:46]

• Tyler Shough (Saints love him, league doesn’t care yet)
• “Internal value often trumps actual trade market—teams fall in love.”

Low/Negative Value & “Mystery Box”

[57:29–60:04]

• Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa: With their contracts, essentially negative assets.
• Bryce Young, Sam Darnold, and others: Little market value, would only fetch late-round picks.

“Who’s acquiring Kyler Murray?”
— Russillo [58:11]

General Observations/Notable Quotes

• “I think Jalen Hurts’ story is like—would you rather have two Pro Bowl receivers and a loaded line, or see what happens when you don’t?”
• “QB valuations are so dependent on context... the internal value vs market value is wild.”
  — Sando & Russillo [49:43]

CFB Playoff Quarterfinal Confidence Rankings

with Danny Kanell
[61:04 onward]

Format:

• Each picks the playoff team they’re most confident will win, ranks the rest, and debates why.

Most Confident Picks

• Danny Kanell: Oregon over Texas Tech
  “I like Oregon a lot. They’re getting healthy at the right time… their schedule and some of their wins are tougher than people realize.” [62:22]

  ➔ Russillo: “That’s my least confident pick!” [63:38]

  • Concern: Texas Tech’s unknown ceiling, experience with Baron Morton, physical Big 12 defense, but Oregon’s adaptability and playoff readiness wins out.

• Both have Georgia over Ole Miss #2

  • Agreement: Georgia’s defense rounding into form late; no way Ole Miss repeats first meeting’s scoring binge.
  • “If Ole Miss beats Georgia, that would be the biggest surprise of the weekend.” – Kanell [81:48]
  • Gunner Stockton compared to Stetson Bennett as a 'gamer.'

• Ohio State vs Miami

  • Russillo: Most confident in Ohio State over Miami. Details OSU’s star talent, but notes O-line got exposed by Indiana.
  • Kanell: Picks upset, “Miami’s D-line is physical, talent at the skill positions, and Mark Fletcher makes them multi-dimensional.” [71:40]
  • Both: “Why couldn’t they beat Indiana then?” [74:54]
  • Russillo: Wonders if Miami actually matches up well.

• Indiana vs Alabama

  • Russillo: “Bama can’t run the football. Receivers are good enough, but it has to be a Simpson and receivers game to score enough.” [87:44]
  • Kanell: “Indiana is one of the most balanced teams – run/pass, and Mendoza (QB) is remarkably tough.” [90:47]
  • Both: Lean Indiana in a close one, stress their run game and Mendoza’s late-game poise.

Conference Commentary & Future

• Kanell explains how NIL (Name-Image-Likeness) changes SEC and Big Ten depth: “No more talent hoarding, depth trickling down… Big Ten needs time, but Indiana, Michigan State, Oregon are pushing the envelope.” [93:23 onward]
• Russillo: “This year, Big Ten clearly has more genuine title contenders. ‘Best conference’ is about top tier, not just depth.”

Notable CFB Quotes

• “I put it all up to the wind gusts… As long as he (Carson Beck) doesn’t turn the ball over, Miami has a real chance.” – Kanell [76:30]
• “I love the receivers… even without Williams, there’s enough in the passing game.” – Russillo on Bama [85:35]
• “Some weekends in Big Ten TV, the third-best game is Indiana-Purdue… SEC has five awesome games.” – Russillo [99:42]

Life Advice & Holiday Recap

[103:15 onward]

A fast-paced segment with Russillo, Ceruti, Kyle, and Tom swapping Christmas stories (one about going viral dunking on a kid), rapid-fire advice, and two listener emails:

• Changing Your “Type” in Dating:
  • Advice: Your “type” will shift as you mature; don’t conflate unlucky breakups with a need to change what attracts you.
  • Russillo: “You may just be looking for long-term maturity in a dating pool not ready for it… You can change your type, but usually it’s, ‘I like blondes, except for this brunette who’s a 9.’” [121:55]
• Dealing with a Drunk, Rude Relative at Christmas:
  • If a family member ruins holiday events repeatedly, it’s OK to set boundaries and say “I’m not attending if he’s invited.”
  • “Somebody eventually has to do something.” [129:51]

Notable/Memorable Moments

• Mike Sando on Lamar Jackson’s contract quirks and agentless status: “We can’t even talk to his agent. We gotta talk to him. That’s a big deal.” [34:43]
• Russillo on Jalen Hurts: “I feel like I hit a breaking point on the Hurts conversation…” [43:40]
• Ceruti (in Life Advice): “I mean, imagine showing up to your family’s deal and being like, f*** this.” [124:49]
• Russillo's assessment of the QB market: “Kyler and Tua at this point, are a negative asset. Right. So this is where the contract thing comes back in full circle…” [57:42]

Episode Timeline (Timestamps in MM:SS)

• 00:46 – Show open, week 17 NFL thoughts (Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia/defense, Jalen Hurts stat)
• 20:42 – QB Value Rankings intro, methodology (w/ Mike Sando)
• 25:24 – Top Tier (“Kitchen Sink” QBs: Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert)
• 33:17 – Second/Third Tier (Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, Stroud, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love)
• 41:34 – “Franchise But...” group: Hurts, Goff, Lawrence, Purdy
• 47:20 – Old guys, bridge types, wildcards: Dak, Stafford, Bo Nix, Cam Ward
• 54:12 – Wild Internal Value (Shough), value contradictions
• 57:42 – “Negative asset” group (Kyler, Tua, etc.)
• 61:04 – CFB Playoff Confidence Rankings (w/ Kanell)
• 92:00 – Re-ranking confidence picks, discussion on playoff spreads
• 93:16 – Conference depth/NIL commentary
• 103:15 – Life Advice/holiday recap/relationship & etiquette mailbag

Final Thoughts

This is a football nerd’s dream episode: a deep, honest evaluation of quarterback value from the front-office POV, a sharp dissection of top College Football Playoff games, and the usual Russillo crew banter to close out. The blend of hard analysis and locker-room personality makes for highly listenable, worthwhile sports radio.