Transcript
Ryan Rosillo (0:00)
Hey Rossilla listeners. You can find every episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Prime. Members can listen ad free on Amazon Music.
Kyle Cerutti (0:08)
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Ryan Rosillo (0:09)
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Jeff Passon (1:50)
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Ryan Rosillo (2:15)
was watching hoops last night and you know the BAM 83 point game still gets referenced and without fail. Somebody brings up Jordan every single time it's talked about and I get it. Like and I'm about to do it right now because I've been thinking about this. There's a premise because bam, of all people scores 83. But really we should be focusing on like that stretch where Luca went for 70, Embiid went for 70 and it was like, hey, what the hell's going on right now? It's always the, the what would Jordan do? I thought it was what would Jesus do? I thought there was like a ton of. I was like, maybe. It's just there's way more hoops fans out there than people want to give him credit for. So would Jordan score 50 a game? No, he wouldn't. I'm going to run through why Now. The good things about the pro Jordan arguments, right, are that there's way more space now, without question, because of the shooting, and ignore his three point shooting numbers because he would have prioritized it. He would have been good at it. I'm not saying he'd be, Steph, but, you know, here's a guy that came out of the draft and Rod Thorne, I was reading his scouting report on him when he drafted him this morning, and even Rod Thorne was sort of paraphrasing his mindset on the whole thing. He's like, we knew he was going to be a good player. We never thought he was going to be this. And we knew we were a little worried about like, could he develop a shot? He actually said too, he's like, he had a good handle. Not a great handle. But I think there's some real math that we have to. So there's going to be a little math here, but I think there's some numbers that can kind of put this whole thing to bed. As great as Jordan is. Right? So in MJ's third year, he scored 37 a game on 28 shot attempts and 12 free throw attempts per game. That's 86, 87. That's the 13th most shot attempts by player per game in NBA history. Wilt has six of the top nine. Do you want to know the all time record? I'll give you a second to think about it. Okay. 39.49 shot attempts per game in 61, 62 when he scored 50 a game. So only Iverson and MJ crack the top 15 that are considered, I would say, modern players. Although going back 49 seasons doesn't feel all that modern. I don't feel modern some moments, you know, in the morning sometimes, like I don't feel super modern right now. But you know, we've got a bunch of Wilts. We've got a little Pistol Pete in there, there's a Rick Barry's, a couple other guys. And then you have Iverson the year after he won MVP and then you have Jordan that 86, 87. So it's just not a normal thing to be shooting 28 a game. Just doesn't happen very often. Iverson in 0102 again the season after his MVP scores 31 a game. Philly actually went 43 and 39. You want to knock me for Iverson. He missed 20 games that season. They'd have a better regular season. Well, they lost in the first round and I just think like when you start getting a little north of 24 shot attempts per game in today's game, I think it starts to become like diminishing returns on that again. That's my opinion on the Haley centric thing. We've talked about it in the past. Kobe in his 0506 campaign scored 35 a game on 27 shot attempts. Harden 18, 19, 36 a game, 25 attempts. Westbrook 16 and 17 when he won the MVP because Durant left for Golden State. 32 a game on 24 shot attempts. Then you had beads MVP season. 33 a game, 20 shot attempts per game, less shot attempts for him. Juicy is going to play less minutes than some of these other perimeter guys. Let's just spend a couple minutes on Wilt 19, 61, 62 and try to figure out what the hell is going on. So again he averages 50.4. His stat line for the season is 50, 26 and 2. Second in the MVP that year obviously to Bill Russell. But this is where the eras and understanding these errors and going and looking this stuff up matters because in 61, 62 the NBA had this outlier three year stretch where the shot attempts and this is the number I'm going to focus on. This is the one you want to pay attention to. Shot attempts per team per game. Over NBA history, during Wilt's 50 point season, teams averaged over 107 shot attempts per game. The three year numbers that jump out at you are from 59 to 62, it's 109, it's 108 and 107.7. Just to add further context to this, back then teams averaged 73 rebounds per game. Today they average 44 rebounds per game. Dudes got the ball up and they got it up quick. And Will Will had the greenest of light. There's not even, I don't even know if you can call it green, how light his or how green his light was. So now let's go back to MJ's 37 points per game season. That year, the NBA averaged 88.8 shot attempts per team per game. It's like 20 less. All right, because the Wilt thing's just over there. Doesn't matter. It's always absurd. But if you look at Jordan's run and where the shot attempts were at least that season, let's compare that 88.8 number to these other numbers of more modern output scoring. Kobe league average for shot attempts again per team per game. 89. Harden 89. Westbrook's year 85. Embiid's MVP season. 88. Now, I dug into it a little bit further and said, all right, well, didn't it slow down a little bit there in the 90s? Yeah, it did. There's a couple seasons there where it dipped below 80 shots per game per team. But over the course of like Jordan's prime years, and I left out the Wizards years, it averages out to about 85 shot attempts per game per team, which is really only like four off of where we're at right now. And you know, look, even though the game is visually different, and again, there's so much more space, you could say that Jordan would live at the free throw line in a way that we've never seen before with the way the game is called on the ball. But there were way more free throw attempts rewarded, or I should say awarded back then than there are now. The free throw numbers are way lower now league wide than they were during Jordan's years. So now let's just take that and say, okay, well, if, if we're talking about on average from Jordan's prime years to where we're at now, like only four or five extra shots in today's game, say you give him all five shots, which isn't likely, but give them all five, give him 60%, throw in a three there, and that's when he's scoring like between 30 and 32 a game. So even if you do the 37 game season, we're really only talking about at best, and I'm being really generous here, six to seven points a game, adding the free throws, that's off the 37 points per game season. So is it 45? And I'm being ridiculous. I'm giving him 60%. I'm giving him a three, I'm giving him some extra threes, and I'm giving him all of the extra shots. It's just not 50. 50 should be completely dismissed. Because I don't think that person's ever really done the math. I hadn't really done it until this morning. The other thing you have to ask yourself as a basketball player is what do you actually want to do? Because when Lucas scored 70, which I thought was the most ethical of this, this high scoring output stuff that we've seen in the last couple years, because they actually still had to win the game. And I was watching it, he was making passes, and I was like, oh, he's not actually just taking. I mean, he takes a lot of shots. But like, if Lucas showed up to the gym every single night going, I want to try to get 50, he would get it a lot. Not every fucking night. You don't think Steph. If Steph just decided like, hey, I want to see if I can get 50 tonight. And that was the way he treated an entire season. He could probably get 50. You know, I think we are dismissive of the Kobe season in 0506 and trying to figure out, like, is that what an MJ season would look like? Kobe's pissed. The team isn't very good. He's taken 27, 28 shots a game. He's hitting threes. He's taken six and a half threes a game. He's getting to the free throw line. And even in that season, he only averaged 35 a game. So you're going to take that Kobe that year that determined to only score because he's pissed off at the world, and you're going to give Jordan another 15 points. I don't. I don't see that at all. That's probably the best example that we have, and it's. It's likely ignored in the. If MJ could score 50 points a game today, and not to offer up basic math is profound, but it's worth reminding all of ourselves that means every time in this hypothetical that MJ scored 40, he would have to score 60 to balance it out. Jordan had 60 points four times ever in 70 plus years of NBA history. We're going back to 1949. A player has scored 60, 70 times ever again. This is the greatest guy ever to do it. And we're talking about Jordan. And it's like, I think that third season, he wanted 50 a night, but it's just not going to happen. Maybe the better question is, would Jordan score 70 in 1962? All right, before we dive into today's breakdown, a quick word on the tool that keeps people's workflow tighter than my takes. Microsoft 365 copilot the world moves faster your workday even faster. Pitching products, drafting reports, analyzing data Microsoft 365 Copilot is your AI assistant for work built into Word, Excel, PowerPoint and other Microsoft 365 apps you use, helping you quickly write, analyze, create and summarize so you can cut through clutter and clear a path to your best work. Learn more@Microsoft.com M365Copilot tastytrade has a suite of probability tools so you can make smarter picks for your portfolio. Though it can't help you fill out your NCAA bracket, you can trade stocks, options, futures and more all in one platform. Tastytrade offers low commissions, including zero commission on stock, so you can keep more of what you earn. The platform is packed with trading features like backtesting, which lets you simulate your trading strategies using 10 plus years of data so you can test your ideas about potential Cinderella stocks. Active traders can use features like Ladder Trading Mode, one click Trading and smart order Tracking to manage their positions during crunch time. If you want to learn to trade or discover new strategies, tastytrade has dozens of educational courses you can access for free with your account. Get live stellar support from tastytrade's deep bench of experienced trade desk reps during trading hours. Visit tastytrade.com barstool today. TastyTrade Inc. Is a registered broker, dealer and member of FINRA, NFA and SIPC. Opening day is just around the corner and we are thrilled. We just had him on. Let's have him on again. It's Jeff Passon, ESPN Senior writer for Baseball. He has a new podcast that he's launching too. I'm excited to talk to him about that if he's allowed to tell us about his his first episode. But it's good to see you man. I'm ready for some baseball I'm excited for.
