Podcast Summary: "Shooting the Shit: About the hidden side of best-of-year lists, AI worries, and the 'midlist bestseller'"

Podcast: The Shit No One Tells You About Writing
Hosts: Carly Watters & CeCe Lyra
Date: December 8, 2025

Overview

This episode tackles the emotional, practical, and sometimes unseen aspects of the publishing world—from navigating the highs and lows of “best of year” lists, to anxieties surrounding AI in publishing, to the reality of being a "midlist bestseller." Carly and CeCe offer real data, industry insights, and plenty of candid, relatable reflections for authors navigating the often turbulent waters of the book business.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Book Business Updates & Behind-the-Scenes Realities

Timestamps: 04:55 – 10:53

• Overview of Recent Book Sales Trends

  • September showed strong trade book sales in North America: Adult books up 11.3%, hardcovers saw an 18% increase, while digital audio fell 8%. (05:21)
  • Return rates (books sent back unsold by bookstores): dropped to 9.5%—a positive trend for publishers and authors. (06:26)

  Quote:

  • "The fact that the return rate is down is a good thing because that means stores shipped back less copies. Just a point five of a percent, but we’ll obviously take that as a huge win." — Carly (07:26)
  • CeCe explains how the consignment model in publishing is unique and shapes publisher risk-aversion and author royalty confusion.

• How Book Cover Designs Can Be Influenced

  • Publishers sometimes alter cover design choices to meet bookstore preferences or sales potential. (09:08)
  • Editorial “white lies” can happen about what covers retailers “prefer” in order to keep authors happy or move plans along. (09:47)

  Memorable Moment:

  • Gossip about an editor making up a story to appease a difficult author on cover choices: “Aren’t you the one who’s always talking about how people...everyone lies, everyone withholds, everyone pretends. And I’m like, I didn’t think this happened in this instance, though.” — CeCe (10:13)

2. Author Worries and Realities About AI

Timestamps: 10:53 – 17:38

• New Study Out of the UK—Author Fears of AI

  • 60% of authors think their work was used to train LLMs without consent/payment.
  • 39% believe their incomes already affected by AI; 85% expect future negative impact.
  • A big fear: a “dystopic two tier market”—human-written novels as luxury items, AI slop as mass-market cheap fare. (12:50)

  Quote:

  • "I want to go on the record and say something. When I—universe, if you're listening—when I say I want dystopian stories, I mean in fiction...I do not want this dystopic reality. I am deeply freaked out about it." — CeCe (12:50)

  • Both hosts agree that most authors don’t want AI-written fiction and worry more about systemic inequality than about current AI fiction quality. Still, most are okay with using AI for fact research. (17:15)

  Quote:

  • “Almost all—97%—of authors were, quote, extremely negative, end quote, about AI writing whole novels or even short sections.” — Carly (16:14)

3. The Hidden Side of “Best of Year” Lists

Timestamps: 21:07 – 28:29

• How Lists Work, What They Mean for Authors

  • End-of-year lists (from media, influencers, bookstores) can be a source of joy—or anxiety—for authors, seeking validation. (21:07)
  • CeCe highlights author Kirthana Ramasetti, who humorously “crowned” her own book as her personal ‘Best Book of the Year’—turning an external validation game inward. (22:58)

  Quote:

  • “[Kirthana] found this...genius way of tackling that, which is she nominated herself, created her own list, and celebrated the fact that it made her best of year list...Isn't that cool? I love that energy and I want everyone to feel inspired by that energy." — CeCe (23:42)

  • While these lists can drive real bookstore sales (especially for kids’ books and big box stores), many deserving books (and authors) go unrecognized, leading to mixed emotions and the “nemesis energy” of the publishing world. (25:11-27:44)

  Memorable Moment:

  • Recalling Bianca’s early episode advice: “Cut the Kumbaya shit. Everyone wants to make the list.” — CeCe quoting Bianca (27:32)

4. The Myth (and Reality) of the “Midlist Bestseller”

Timestamps: 28:51 – 36:39

• Gillian (or Jillian) McAllister’s Viral Instagram on Success

  • Her honest post detailed her slow, “non-glamorous” rise: one agent, years between foreign deals, delayed US sales, missing and hitting bestseller lists at various points. (28:51)
  • Resonated for showing that debut “success” isn’t instant, and highs and lows hit unpredictably.

  Quote:

  • “Publishing is institutionalized gambling...It can be maddening and frustrating...but the magical thing about gambling is that at any moment you could have a winning hand.” — CeCe (31:32)

  • Hosts discuss how breakout often comes after years or multiple books, citing Liane Moriarty as a prime example.

• Substack Analysis: Andromeda Romano Lax on the Numbers Behind the Lists

  • The Substack post “Almost a Bestseller” details how 6,939 first week sales weren’t enough to make the NYT list because the threshold jumped to 9,700 books that week. (34:07)
  • Demonstrates that “midlist” bestsellers can still have impressive sales numbers, but timing, external competition and unpredictable thresholds matter.

  Quote:

  • “Just because things don’t happen quickly doesn’t mean they’re not going to happen at all...sometimes you have these highs and then you hit a low and then you go hit a high again.” — Carly (30:06)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Consignment and Returns:
  “I don’t think that the general public realizes that books are sold on consignment. It’s not a situation where the bookstore buys the inventory and then takes the risk...there are exceptions, but in general, books are returnable by the stores.” — CeCe (07:32)

• On AI Dystopia vs. Capitalist Reality:
  “I don’t think the money is in the AI slop. I think the money is...how this industry has existed for hundreds of years, which is like, humans have to create the thing.” — Carly (14:58)

• On Self-Awarding and Finding Joy:
  “The best of the year books are the ones that are in our hearts and the ones that we support.” — Carly (26:54)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Book Sales Trends & Returns Explained: 04:55 – 10:53
• AI Fears, Realities and Stats: 10:53 – 17:38
• Best-of-Year Lists: Author Emotions & Social Media: 21:07 – 28:29
• Midlist Bestsellers & Social/Industry Realities: 28:51 – 36:39
• Substack Discussion: The Numbers Behind Bestseller Status: 34:07 – 36:39

Closing Highlights

• Candid discussion and laughter about publishing’s cutthroat and sometimes arbitrary nature.
• Encouragement for authors to seek personal joy and validation, not just external accolades.
• Inviting listener feedback—especially on whether books feel like luxury items, and reactions to AI, best-of-year lists, and returns.

Tone & Final Thoughts

Consistently conversational, candid, and supportive—acknowledging real industry frustrations while also infusing humor and resilience.

For aspiring and working authors alike, this episode is a must-listen for its honest look at both the publishing machine’s mechanics and the emotional ride of bringing a book to market.