
Shooting The Shit
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Carly Waters
Welcome to another episode of Shooting the Shit with Literary Agents Carly Waters and Cece Lira where we dissect publishing gossip, discuss book industry trends, and the overall state of the book business. If you've ever wanted to grab a coffee with two literary agents, grab your mug and pull up a chair.
Hi everybody. It is December. I don't know how this year has flown by. We've done half a year of these shooting the episodes. We kind of sprung it on you guys as like a fun thing CC and I were gonna do. I've really looked forward to our weekly chats, especially since we're not at the same agency anymore. So it's been really nice for us to keep this going and literally just shooting the shit about publishing. I sometimes thought in the middle kind of of the year, I was like, are we gonna run out of things to say or talk about? But there's always publishing news. We have lots of juicy things to talk about today. We're going to talk about something that Cece brought up to me today as we're nearing the end of the year, which is like the best of your lists. Who makes them, who doesn't? How authors feel about that. Such a great topic. We're going to talk about mid list life stuff. You know, what does it mean to be a mid list bestseller? Is there. Is that an oxymoron? Mid list bestseller. And we have some great stats about book sales. We have some great stats about AI concerns by authors. So I think we have a juicy episode today.
Cece Lira
Yeah, I think that you and I will never run out of things to say to each other. We are both overthinkers in very different ways and so we'll always have thoughts. Plus this industry. Like, do you remember, okay, I had just started at my former agency and you were on. So I remember starting like in December, which Is not a smart month to start. And you were taking your two week break. Everyone was right. But I had just started, so I was like, still on. And I remember you posting on Slack. All of us posting on Slack. About a gossip. I won't share what the gossip was, but I remember what the gossip was. I can tell you later. Gossip that was on Twitter, by the way. Okay. Like we were talking about a Twitter. A Twitter discussion.
Carly Waters
Okay.
Cece Lira
And it had to do with an editor who was complaining about an agent who submitted right before the holidays and how the agent.
Carly Waters
Oh, I know, exactly.
Cece Lira
Do you remember?
Carly Waters
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Cece Lira
So then, so then you, you posted the funniest thing on Slack. You were like, I am on a vacation. I need a break from the gossip. You were like publishing, just wait one week. Give me one week. But this, this industry does not care about breaks or vacations. There's always gossip, which is why we'll always have shooting the shit. And speaking of vacation, before we jump in, I want to know about your vacation. You took a week off last week. Tell us, tell us how was was great.
Carly Waters
So I am based in Canada. I kind of explain it as my body is in Canada, but like my brain is in the US Because I Americans all day long. I have mostly American clients. My business sense over the years is just like plopped into that kind of New York publishing atmosphere. Anyway, so because I mostly work with Americans, it was American Thanksgiving. So in previous years, it's obviously been great to have a super quiet week when I'm like, I can clean out the inbox. I don't need to send anybody emails. Nobody's expecting things from me. I can do client reading. I often go in Ottawa. There's a spa called Nordic Spa, which is like a Scandinavian spa concept. So I usually go on American Thanksgiving to the Scandinavian spa. So this year I'm like, I think I'm just gonna actually take the week off. So my husband and I went to Dominican just for five days over the American holiday. Yeah, it was great. And he golfed and I rode horses and kayaked and sat by the pool and, you know, drank my fair share of spritzes and yeah, just had a nice little, nice little vacation. And I wore so much sunscreen. I wore my hat. I sent you that picture of me in my hat. So. So you don't even know I was on vacation. I'm like, covered from the sun and.
Cece Lira
Therefore protected from evil wrinkles and sunspots. Good job. I am proud. Good, good job.
Carly Waters
Okay, we can't prevent Them. At some point. We're gonna launch a beauty episode here of like how we're.
Cece Lira
Oh my God, we're keeping young. I will.
Carly Waters
But our books are keeping us young.
Cece Lira
You don't understand. If we ever do a beauty episode, I don't think people want us to do one. I don't think our listeners are at all interested, but if they were, you guys, it would be the longest episode ever. Just self care. Not even beauty, right? I'm going to reframe this as self care. Like I, I am such a big self care person. I have a very long list of things I love to do and things I've tried and I don't love. So.
Carly Waters
Yeah, yeah. And cece is also very generous. One time I was at your house and you were like, oh, I don't like this. And you were just like, here's this giant perfume sample. And you're also very generous with your, with your beauty as well.
Cece Lira
Oh, well, you are generous too. And I remember that it was a Jo Malone sample. I don't wear perfume. I don't at all. Like, I don't like perfume. And so I hope that doesn't make my, my gesture sound less generous.
Carly Waters
No, no, you tell me every time you're like, I don't use this. This is for you.
Cece Lira
Yeah, I don't wear any.
Carly Waters
Well, anyway, if anybody ever wants beauty advice from non beauty influencers, let me tell you, we got thoughts. But one thing we do know a lot about is the book business. So we will stay in our lane over here. We're shooting the shit. So I pulled some stats for you guys. Just about, you know, book sales. I try to keep you guys abreast of what's going on here. There was an update in publishers lunch this week about sales have gone trade book sales super strong in September with the association of American publishers called the AAP just recording some, some growth. A 10 increase, guys, which is fantastic. We'd love to see it. Adult books were up 11.3%. Print books led the growth hardcovers up 18%, which is great. Digital audio fell a little bit, which is interesting. But I guess, you know, with print books up, that kind of balances out ebooks too.
Cece Lira
Yeah, 8% fell. Yeah. Weird, right?
Carly Waters
Oh, interesting. Yeah. Well, this also. So every year I do like publishing predictions. I've kind of explained this. I'm working on my predictions list. I'm not going to spoil my predictions, but some predictions about that. Have we ever talked about how returns work on the podcast before?
Cece Lira
I don't think So I feel like that's actually something that's super interesting because among these stats, right, like we're seeing all these great stats, there's a stat that reads that for the month, the return rate for the month was 9.5%, down from 10% last year. So, like, I think if someone were to read this, it'd be like, what is a return rate? It's something that's very unique to how books are sold. Carly, do you want to tell us what it is?
Carly Waters
Yeah. Which I think is an interesting stat. So basically, and it depends on the relationship between the publisher and the bookstore, and the chains and indies all have their own relationships, but essentially the bookstores order the copies and they only have to keep the copies of the books in the store for a certain amount of time. And if they don't sell, they're allowed to return them, ship them back to the publisher. So all of the published authors know what I'm talking about because on your royalty statements you will see the returns. And so there's a percentage allocated for the books that they ship that might not sell. So the fact that the return rate is down is a good thing because that means stores shipped back less copies. Just a point.
Cece Lira
Correct.
Carly Waters
Five of a percent, but we'll obviously take that as a huge win. So clearly they were selling those copies, are not returning them.
Cece Lira
Yeah. And like, I don't think that the general public realizes that books are sold on consignment. It is not a situation where the bookstore buys the inventory and then takes the risk of whether that inventory will sell or not. Are there exceptions? Absolutely. For example, certain special editions. Right. For specific bookstores, there are exceptions. Yeah, exactly. But in general, in general, books are returnable by the stores. I don't mean by the consumer who can then return it to the store. And that makes for a very unique business model. And it explains in part, I'm not saying it justifies, just that it explains why publishers are, you know, a little bit risk averse, one might say. And it's a really, really unique thing, I think, to the book industry and not something that the usual person knows. And it also makes royalty statements sometimes confusing for authors because I've seen, like, I remember one time one author got their royalty statement and they saw. I'm just gonna see a random number here. Okay. They saw 8,000 copies sold and they were like, so happy. And then in their next royalty statement, they saw that they had actually had not sold 8,000 copies because the returns. So actually they had sold 6,000 copies. And. And the author was, like, freaking out, being like, oh, my gosh, there was something wrong with my books. My books were returned. And I remember her DMing me. This is not a client of mine, but her DMing me on Instagram. And I'm like, no, no, no. Talk to your agent. Like, there's nothing wrong with your book. Like, most likely it is the difference between sell in and sell through. It's why bookscan is so valuable. Bookscan does show sell through, meaning what the. But the bookstore is actually sold to humans. Doesn't capture all sales, but it does capture most of them.
Carly Waters
Yeah, yeah. And I was going to say, it also speaks to the kind of. The close relationship between publishers and booksellers. Right. Because publishers don't sell direct to consumer. They sell to the bookseller, and they want the bookseller to stock the copies. And so often the publishers will show cover images to the bookstore to be like, hey, especially if it's a huge retailer where they want to, you know, they do extra business with or they want to do a special edition or something. And lots of reasons, just regular covers. They'll show the large chains to be like, do you like this? And if they don't like it, like, let's say if they're like, this is orange and I want blue, they'll change it to blue. If that means that the store will take 10,000 more copies, the COVID is going to be blue, not orange. You know, so, yeah, there's just so many complicating things.
Cece Lira
Gossip. Okay, I have gossip. I once grabbed a drink, it was more than one drink, with an editor who told me that she. She at one point had a very, very, very difficult author on her list. And there was a little fib that was told inside their house. This author was being very difficult with the COVID And they said, you know what? Major bookstore.
Major bookstore really likes this cover. And that was not true. I mean, the bookstore did like the COVID but they liked others, too. And I'm like, you guys do that? I'm shocked. And this editor had the best response. You know what she said to me? She said, cece, aren't you the one who's always talking about how people, like, everyone lies, everyone withholds, everyone pretends. And I'm like, I didn't think this happened in this instance, though. Like, I. I am naive after all. Like, and I remember being like, that.
Carly Waters
Happens to everybody else. It doesn't happen to me.
Cece Lira
And also, like, not in the lovely book world, right? Like, in stories. Let's do that. In stories, people. So. So yeah, gossip. I will tell you who it was after we. We started.
Carly Waters
Yeah, yeah. But yeah, that speaks to the nature of how all of this kind of works. All right, I'm going to stop you from getting in trouble and we're going to pivot to our next topic which is there's a really interesting study out of the UK about how authors feel about AI. And obviously there's lots of articles about this. There's no shortage of articles about this. But I wanted to bring this to your guys attention just because it had some stats in it that I think were really interesting. So this is from the Bookseller. The article came out on November 20th by Eloise Wood who wrote it. It said authors believe that AI will entirely replace their work according to a University of Cambridge research. So you can check out that article in the Bookseller. Some things are behind a paywall because I have a subscription. I don't know if this is behind a paywall, but the article or the. Sorry, the study, if you want to find it, is for the Minderoo center technology and democracy website and the report is called the Impact of Generative AI on the Novel. So if anybody wants to track that down, that's where you're going. Okay, so some stats that I found were interesting. The entire article is basically stats. So you know, we can kind of parse through this how we, how we want to. But some of the things that jumped out at me. Additionally, almost 60%, 60 60% of authors said that their work had been used to train AI large language models LLMs without permission or payment. And more than a third, 39% believe that their incomes had already taken a hit from gen generative AI. While 85% of the novelists said that they expected their future income to be driven down by the technology. So I need to like maybe do a bit deeper dive into this study as well because it seems like a lot. I don't want to say that maybe it's inflammatory or dramatic or like I think this is a very qualitative study, maybe not quantitative study because we can't assign financials to this. We don't know what the lost revenue actually looks like. This is a lot of feelings about potential lost revenue. So I want to go read this study in depth. But the bookseller article highlighted these stats. But cece, what did you think about these? Did you think it was like, I don't know, a lot of feelings or vibes based.
Cece Lira
So this is what stood out to me in terms of this article. There's a quote that reads, some respondents predicted a dystopic two tier market in which the human written novel becomes a quote, luxury item, unquote. While mass produced AI generated fiction is cheap for free. I want to go on the record and say something when I. Universe, if you're listening, when I say I want dystopian stories, I mean in fiction. In my inbox, please. I do not mean in happening in the world. I do not want this dystopic reality. I am deeply freaked out about it. I read like this. This whole article had me thinking and feeling all sorts of things. But when I got to that part, I'm like, no, no, no. We must not go to this dystopic reality where there's like the AI stuff and then the like luxury item, human stuff. No, please, no, I don't want that. I. I'm saying no to that. Can we opt out?
Carly Waters
Yeah. There's just a lot of layers to this, right? Like, I'm gonna go on the record also saying that this reality exists because there's AI we talked about AI Slop. AI slop exists on the Internet. People can buy AI slop whenever they.
Cece Lira
Want, but human, but this dystopic reality saying that it's like few luxury item humans and then most of it AI, like, do you know what I'm saying? Can you imagine, like, no, that does not exist. That exists. I could not break my heart like the editor.
Carly Waters
I just think a version of this exists, like, and we could call books luxury. Not everybody could afford them. You know, some of them, again, are some of these price points. $40 are outside of people's day to day spending. So I don't want to say there's more AI slop out there than there is quality books because that's not fair and that's untrue. But there is a version of this that already exists. And so I understand there's a fear of this exacerbating, right? And this like stratification continuing to emerge. But to me, this was a very like, fear based article.
Cece Lira
No, thank you. I'm going to live in denial. I will live in denial. I take your point. Very smart. You're right. But no, I will not be living in this reality. I am opting out. I don't want to live in a two tiered dystopic reality where there are very few books written by humans.
Carly Waters
But like, I think we also have to go back to the whole, like publishing exists with under capitalism. We live with under capitalism. And so like this article goes into depth about the concept of what is the way that publishers will make the most amount of money. And like, again, most publishers are going to follow the money. I don't think the money is in the AI slop. I think the money is how it's been and how this industry has existed for hundreds of years, which is like, humans have to create the thing. And we've always been supplemented by technology because at one point people were writing books by hand and now they write by computers. And so anyway, lots we. There's a million different tangents we can go on. Another.
Cece Lira
I don't think books are luxury items, though. Like, and I want to know if people think they are. No, I don't, because I know a book is expensive. It's like $30 to buy like a book. I mean, it could be less, obviously, but I don't think of them as luxury items. Maybe because I'm weird. I want to know. I want to know comments. Where are the comments right now?
Carly Waters
Comment on YouTube, guys. Comment on YouTube.
Cece Lira
We're checking the YouTube comments. I want to know. And there's no right or wrong answer. Like, I'm genuinely curious. I want to know if you guys think of books as luxury items. I mean, I think of luxury items as just like, anyway, I'm not going.
Carly Waters
To get stuff as luxury items. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Cece Lira
We're not doing the self care episode today.
Carly Waters
We're not doing the Follow Carly Around Paris shopping episode. Okay. No, but we work in this business, right? So to me, it's like books are living and breathing, right? If that's my luxury, you know, that's my luxury. But I think in the grand scheme of things, they could be. Anyway, so let us know. You know, it's not a, like, choose a side thing. It's more like, let us know what you think maybe the definition of luxury item is and whether books could potentially fall into that. I'm curious. The last stat that I pulled from this article was almost all 97% of authors were, quote, extremely negative, end quote, about AI writing whole novels or even short sections. 87% extremely negative. The aspects novelists felt least negative about using AI for were sourcing general facts or information. Only 30% were extremely negative about that, with 20% of novelists saying they use AI for this purpose. So I think that's the, like, current reality, the current temperature of the room. So I just wanted everybody to kind of settle in there. Most of, I think most authors that we speak with fall within these parameters, right? People generally do not want fully AI written novels or even short sections. Most people are okay with some research done by AI, but you need to talk to your agent about this. You need to talk to your publishers about this because again, we need to be really careful about copyright. And you know who this was actually written by at the end of the day. So lots of layers to that one, but that's kind of the temperature of the room.
Cece Lira
Lots of layers.
Carly Waters
All right, well that is all we have for AI today. We are going to move on to substacks and Instagrams. But before we do that we are going to have a message from our sponsors. Here is the thing about wearing quints because I adore my Mongolian cashmere tees. I told my mother in law and her sister and now everybody is buying them for themselves and for gifts this holiday season. I don't just love them as a sponsor, I love them as a gift that I know is going to hit the right note. Quint pretty much has your whole list covered. The Mongolian cashmere sweater tees for $50 when you would normally pay 200 or more, the kind you'll wear on repeat. Then there's denim that goes with everything. Tops and skirts for when you need to look put together cashmere hats and scarves and down jackets that will actually keep you warm. By working directly with trusted factories that maintain high standards for both craftsmanship and ethical practices, and by cutting out the middlemen and markups, Quince is able to pass those savings straight to you. I have the sleeveless cashmere tea and oatmeal true to size and the T shirt cashmere sweaters in gray and oatmeal. I could wear them every day. I rotated them through my meetings when I was in LA and then back to my work from home setup. They're so versatile, classy and I don't have to think twice about whether it is the right moment. They are always right for the moment. Quint also has home bath and kids products. I adore the shark print swim trunks for my sons. Find gifts so good you will want to keep them with quint. Go to quint.com T S N O T Y A W for free shipping on Your order and 365 day returns now available in Canada too. That's Q U I n c e.comtsn or o t Y a W to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.comtsnatyah the holidays are almost here and if you still have names on your list, don't panic. Uncommon Goods Makes holiday shopping stress free and joyful. With thousands of one of a kind gifts you can't find anywhere else. You'll discover presents that feel meaningful and personal. Never rushed or last minute. Uncommon Goods looks for products that are high quality, unique and often handmade or made in the U.S. many are crafted by independent artists and small businesses, so every gift feels special and thoughtfully chosen. I know our crowd would love the Book Nook Reading Valet. It's a wood holder for your book, your mug, your reading glasses, e reader and or a phone so you can carry it from your room to your bedside to the bathtub. It has a 4.9 out of 5 rating on over 178 reviews. I also thought you guys would like all of you pet lovers out there would like the custom pet embroidered sweatshirt so you can have a custom portrait of your animal on your sweater and have them with you all day. Uncommon Goods has something for everybody. From moms, dads, kids and teens, book lovers, sports fans and foodies, gardeners, crafters, readers and writers, you will find unforgettable gifts that are anything but ordinary. When you shop at Uncommon Goods, you're supporting artists and small independent businesses. Every purchase is a chance to choose something remarkable and feel good about where your money goes. Because you can make your money go farther this holiday season. Because with every purchase you make at Uncommon Goods, they give back $1 to a non profit partner of your choice. They've donated more than $3.1 million to date. That is incredible stuffs. Don't wait. Make this holiday the year you give something truly unforgettable. To get 15% off your next gift, go to uncommongoods.com t snottyaw. That's uncommongoods.com t S N O-T Y A W for 15 off. Don't miss out on this limited time offer. Uncommon Goods. We're all out of the ordinary.
All right everybody, we are back. Should we start with substacks or Instagrams today? Cece, what do you feel like starting with?
Cece Lira
Oh, I think we should talk about best of year lists. Okay, let's just talk about that. So, okay, so it's, it's that time of the year again. The most wonderful time of the year. The time when people do roundup lists. And if you're a reader, one of the things you might do is check out best of year lists. Meaning, I don't know, it could be like a magazine. It could be your favorite influencer online. Like so many people are doing it and I love that they are but they're essentially saying, these are the best books I read this year. And I actually find it really interesting to know what the criteria is. Like, is it books that they read in 2025, is it books that necessarily had to come out in 2025, et cetera, et cetera. But I do them. I always post on Instagram, like my favorite non client books. Obviously I had clients. Clients did not make the list because that would just be super unfair because they would be the favorites all the time. Winners, they wear the crown and nobody else wins. But then there's another side to this. So many things that the consumer sees and has warm and fuzzy opinions about. After you peek behind the curtain, you might see a different side of these super fun lists. And that other side includes authors who often get sad because their books didn't make the best of your list. And increasingly common, the anxiety of I may make it, I may not. I don't know. It's that time of year. So I'm already anxious. It hasn't even begun. And I'm super anxious.
Carly Waters
Yeah.
Cece Lira
And you know this. I wanted to talk about this. And I was partly inspired because Kirthana Ramasetti, author of several books, including most recently the Other Lata. I hope it's Lata. I don't know if that's actually the pronunciation of the character. It was a novel that she wrote and she. She posted on Instagram. I encourage everyone to follow Kirthana. So her handle is.
K I R T H A N A R A M I S E T T I. So she posted big news. The Other Lata is the best book of 2025. Like celebratory emojis. And then more information because I said, so what do I mean? And then she talks about in this post again. The post is so great, so funny, so like just so humorous and so clever. She talks about how she's not a New York Times bestselling author and she's not like a major book club or like celebrity pick. This book was not that. Right. And yet she seeks, because she is human, because she's an author, validation from best of year lists. And a lot of people do seek that validation, whether they're aware of it or not. And I so admire people who don't seek the validation. But I'm not talking about you guys. And she's like, so grateful when they make the list. Right? But oftentimes she becomes, I don't know, a little, a little anxious and a little almost addicted to like, checking lists. So she found this what, in my opinion is a genius way of tackling that, which is she nominated herself, created her own list and celebrated the fact that it made her best of year list. Best as in it was the most fun writing experience for her. Best as in she had amazing life changing experiences when promoting it. Best as in, when readers reach out to her, she feels amazing. And isn't that cool? I love that energy and I want everyone to like feel inspired by that energy because I was inspired and I hope my clients were too. I, I think that, you know, part of living in this industry that's super competitive and ruthless is like embracing that, embracing its capitalism. It's competitive. It is what it is. It doesn't mean that you can't find ways of playing with it like Kirthana did, which was so, so genius and I loved it so much. So all the applause for Kirtna. Go out, support her, buy her books. They make for great Christmas presents and. Yeah, and I just think it's fun. I just think it's fun to do that. And it reminds me of an actor who nominated herself for an Emmy. It was a Game of Thrones actor, I believe. I believe her name is Gwendoline Christie. She didn't get nominated by the studio, so she nominated herself. And this was many years ago. And I remember thinking, yes, please, yes, please do this amazing energy. So anyway, Carly, do your clients talk to you about best of your lists?
Carly Waters
Yeah. Also this also reminds me of the award conversation, right? When it's like, you know, the award nominations are going to come this day or the long lists is this day, the short list is this day. Which friends are on the list, who is, who isn't. So I've been through this with the award stuff and if your lists are kind of one of those things where it's like, it's nice to be on one, but people don't always expect to be on it. And there's also so many lists. It's like this roundup that themed roundups, non themed roundups. And then obviously the bookstores do their best of the year list. And it is great to be on a list because from, especially from a bookstore, because that means, you know, for example, in Canada, like Indigo's Best Books of the Year, they're stocking so many of those. And those are the ones they're pushing on consumers. The people that only come into the store in December, you know, they, that that's what they're going to buy. And I'm guilty of it, you know, for shopping for My kids, I'm like, okay, well, this is the book of the year. This is the one I'm going to grab. I'm really guilty that for my kids. Yeah. So anyway, there's the awards stuff, there's the end of the year stuff. And authors do. Yeah, some will admit more than others when they are feeling slighted or snubbed by these things. But I find it's more with awards and less with the end of the year list. But everybody, you know, looks for their name here and there. And again, there's so many online outlets for these and so many journalists pitch stitching different angles. So, yeah, I don't know for myself, I don't know if you do this, Cece, but I have Google alerts for all my clients names as well as all of their book titles. So then I'm always like half.
Cece Lira
Because you taught me. Yeah, you taught me to do that.
Carly Waters
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I do that. So I'm like, oh, I just saw so and so was on this list. So and so is on this list. And yeah, so it's nice to kind of round those up. But there's going to be clients that aren't, you know, going to be nominated for awards even though they deserve it or not on the best of lists. But the best of list is in our hearts, guys. The best of. Listen, you know, the best of the year books are the ones that are in our hearts and the ones that we support. So we see all of you guys out there, all of you who have won awards or been on list and not been on list. We know you guys are. Are working so hard.
Cece Lira
I'm sorry, I'm laughing because I'm picturing.
Carly Waters
I'm picturing Bianca, okay?
Cece Lira
So I'm picturing Bianca in one of the very first episodes of Books With Hooks. Guys, you guys gonna have to go all the way to the archives. This is like, I don't know, first. First 10 episodes we've ever recorded. Bianca was talking about how Roxane Gay has a nemesis and like bring that nemesis energy. And you said something like. No, you know, like, like you said. Just said something very lovely. Kind of like we said right now, like, oh, well, there's no competition. Every person stays in their lane. You're competing against yourself. And Bianca was like, cut. Cut the Kumbaya shit.
As you were talking right now. I'm like, yeah, Carly, cut the Kumbaya shit. Like, everyone wants to make the list, but also lovely. I think that's great. But it was really my. In my Head. It was really funny.
Carly Waters
Listen, let's just say we can be both, okay? We can have our nemesis. Somebody else got on the list.
Cece Lira
We can contain multitudes.
Carly Waters
We can contain multitudes. But also the podcast. You know, we love you all from the podcast. We think you guys are all. All the best in our hearts. I also love seeing everybody's like, Spotify wrapped lists. Where the podcast is on your wrapped list. Wrapped list. So if you guys tag me.
Cece Lira
Yeah, I love that.
Carly Waters
In that on Instagram, I will repost you because I love seeing everything.
Cece Lira
Yeah, we also do that. We also have best of your lists. I want to go on the record and say that I do do love everyone, but I do not love everyone equally.
I don't. I don't believe in that. I believe. I believe that if you have a ranking, you have a ranking. It is what it is. Okay? I stand by it. Sorry. It's true. It's who I am. I am hopped up on cold meds. Guys.
Carly Waters
I can tell.
Bruno, don't give CeCe any more acetaminophen, please.
Cece Lira
I know, I know. Or give cece more so she can be more honest and make more people.
Carly Waters
We still haven't had our like After Dark with the wine episode yet. We'll have to figure out when we could do that episode.
Cece Lira
We have to do that. But not while I have a cold. Because then cold meds and the wine, then it'll just be a disaster.
Carly Waters
Yeah, of course not. There's another Instagram post that really stood out to me, so it was posted on November 19th. We are currently recording on December 3rd. You know, we guys record a little bit ahead of time. This post currently has over 11,000 likes. Like, writers love this post, so this one a little bit viral. You might have already seen it, but. So the Author is Gillian McAllister. Her Instagram is. I don't know if it's Jillian or Gillian. I'm not sure, but I'm going to say Jillian. Jillian M. Author on Instagram. She's verified, so you can probably find her. But she did a kind of a similar, like, carousel style post that I thought was just so good and I saved it. And as I said, I'm sure a lot of you guys found it as well. But so the carousel kind of runs through a few things. So it starts off with the COVID image that says, I did not have five literary agents interested, or even two. There wasn't a flurry of authors nor an auction. I just had one. And then it scrolls to like, she printed out the email with her agent, I love that. And then the next slide. I did not have a nine way bidding war for my debut novel. I just had one offer that I gladly and kind of without fanfare accepted. So she did a two book deal with Michael Joseph. This is all in the uk so if you don't recognize the publisher, that's why Michael Joseph.
Cece Lira
But they're a very, very well known publisher in the uk. I just want to add that it's.
Carly Waters
A PR age in print in the uk. For those of you that don't know. Next slide says I was not sold into 40 languages overnight at Frankfurt Book Fair. In fact, it took me nine Frankfurt Book fairs, so nine years to get these copies. And it kind of shows all of her foreign copies on her shelf. It took me seven books to have a hardback. Until then I had paperback originals. My debut did not get a US deal, nor did my second novel. It took three books before she sold them to the US and then took seven novels to hit the New York Times. And then she was on a number two on the fiction list in 2022. Fantastic. Then book eight missed and only the ninth book hit the list again. Right. So that's hard for authors too. You hit the list, then you don't hit the list, then you're back on the list. And she says, I know these things are often unattainable. I still have my own failings. For example, I flew to Germany to accept this award, but I don't have and can't seem to get a German publisher. Like publishing is full of these ironies. Right. It was probably an award at Frankfurt Book Fair, but still doesn't have a German publisher. And she says it occurs to me that I am kind of glad I do things slowly. And she has a picture of herself. Here I am pregnant with my first child at almost 38, engaged at 37. And so she just talks about like how long things take to happen. And just because things don't happen quickly doesn't mean they're not going to happen at all. Sometimes you have these highs and then you hit a low and then you go hit a high again. Like there is no just because you hit a list that you're always going to be on a list. Anyway, this post really resonated with a lot of you. Tons of you, tons of you shared it and liked it and it really hit some, hit some heartstrings and I really loved that.
Cece Lira
Yeah. And I loved, thank you so much for sharing that one with me. Like I always love Everything you share for us to discuss here. But I have to say, I went through that carousel this morning and I was like, oh, gosh, I hope every author finds this post because it just, it gives you so much perspective and inspiration and it makes you feel both grateful and. But not in a complacent way, in an ambitious way. And, you know, it's, it's, it really is a fantastic post. And if I had to describe publishing in two words, and I've said this before, like, if I only got two words right, I would call it institutionalized gambling. Like, finish the sentence. Publishing is institutionalized gambling. And the thing about gambling is that it can be maddening and frustrating and like, you might want to rip your hair out because of all the gambling and all the uncertainties of gambling and variables and lack of control. Right. Like no control. But the magical thing about gambling is that at any moment you could have a winning hand. Yes, it's rare, but if it weren't rare, then it also wouldn't be a winning hand. Right. Like, that's just not how it works. We're not all celebrating the fact that we have oxygen. Most of us have oxygen. I think that the fact that you could be an author with seven books and then, bam, your eighth could become the biggest thing ever. Like, I always think of Liane Moriarty. I always think of the fact that she had like a solid mid list career until she wrote the Husband's Secret. She had written multiple novels before that. All great novels, by the way, because I read, I've read all her books. And it wasn't until the Husband's Secret that she made the New York Times bestseller list that she broke out. And it was Big Little Lies, the one she wrote after that, that got her even more attention. So it's one of those things where if you choose this industry at any point, you could break out. Conversely, to your point, Carly, at any point, there's no guarantee that once you do break out, it's going to happen again. It's always a gamble. So are you feeling lucky? I guess that's, that's the publishing question. Yeah.
Carly Waters
Do you care enough about the craft to, I don't know, just like continue to buckle down every time, you know, and do the thing and write the book? They don't get easier to write from my understanding. I've never written one, but nobody says they get easier to write over time. Different books are challenging in their own ways. Different publishing experiences are challenging at different times as we go through different economic cycles and life events. So, yeah, it's just, it's really, it's just. Yeah. Anyway, it's a really complicated business because it's all about humans and our creativity and makes it really beautiful. So I, I thought that one was really special.
Cece Lira
Yeah, I love that. Okay, so now let's do our other substack. What is the other substack?
Carly Waters
Yes. So the author of this one is Andromeda Romano Lacks, who is an author called Almost a bestseller. She published it on November 19, if you want to go check that one out. Has a good number of likes and shares and comments. So some of you guys might have already found this, but the, the kind of subhead for this one is mark your calendars, then sit back for a feisty ramble about how 44,000 copies shipped in two months. Made me very happy. That did not make my 2025 paperback a bestseller. And so it's a great, you know, long read. So totally, you know, everybody go check it out and dive in. But there's a few things that I wanted to highlight and she obviously in that subhead explains how many copies you shipped and you know, the crux of the argument here. But yeah, it's just really interesting to think about. You can sell a lot of copies, but it depends on when you sell those copies and what time frame and what week in any given week whether you actually hit a bestseller list. So one of the quotes that we pulled was because of my very good first week sales, The Deepest Lake did better than 4,900 copies. My final publisher email informed that by Sunday, six days after it published, The Deepest Lake had sold 6,939 copies, which was thrilling, a testament to my publisher, Barnes and Noble and an excellent book cover. And perhaps the fact that I managed to write a thriller that was different enough from the average thriller fare. Missing person story, mother, daughter, relationship set in Guatemala with a strong sense of place and some provocative themes. And still not enough a follow up. Sorry, but anyway, hooray. Publisher email said we didn't make the New York Times list because the threshold lifted to 9,700 this weekend. But glad everyone is out buying books as gifts. Silver linings. So on a slow sales week, one of those 6,000 or 7,000 weeks, my numbers would have sufficed. But then again, on a slow sales week, without a Mother's Day shopping holiday, my numbers might also have been lower. So I just love that real time analysis. So I really suggest everybody check it out.
Cece Lira
I loved the critical thinking in this piece. I mean, I know we're not going to go back to AI but this is why like I don't. I'm not super afraid of AI writing good content because the critical thinking, I just don't imagine it could ever replicate this, this article. The way she examined so many facets of, of the same event in a way that like felt incredibly self aware and she was able to process what happened to her almost like it wasn't happening to her, but at the same time like including her feelings and including her thoughts, it was just sobering and wise and incredibly well written too. So I had not heard of her as an author and now I'm going to be checking her out. So there you go, the power of substack.
Carly Waters
Yeah. So her and I followed each other because she does triathlon, she does Iron Man. She doesn't just do triathlon, she does Ironman. So she's like, she's cool like you. She's way cooler than me.
Cece Lira
Cool like you. Oh, that's cool.
Carly Waters
Way cooler than me. So I started following her for, you know, the writing and triathlon information that she would post. But yeah, no, she's, she's really cool. But yeah, anyway, that was a good analysis.
Cece Lira
I suggest everybody does one even follow one for triath. Like what is like what? Like, like what does that mean you're a triathlon person?
Carly Waters
Strategy. So there's sports strategy, there's like equipment. Right. Different sports have different equipment. So I posted, I think I started following her when she actually, I think I was posting about triathlons and somebody was like, oh, you should follow her because she does Ironmans. And so she was getting ready for an Ironman in Victoria B.C. where the ocean temperature was so low they had to wear not only wetsuits but like a wet cap, wet gloves and like wet.
Cece Lira
People do this by choice?
Podcast Host / Announcer
Yes.
Cece Lira
People are not being forced to do this. This is not some sort of like medieval torture.
Carly Waters
No.
Cece Lira
People are willingly going into the freezing ocean.
Carly Waters
Yes.
Cece Lira
Right.
Carly Waters
And so she was one of the ones that was like I ordered like it's a like the wetsuit to keep you warm. Right. Like the gloves, the hat and the.
Cece Lira
That sounds great. That sounds so amazing. I really want to. Want to watch. I was gonna say one do but I couldn't even say that with the straight nose. Like, yes, that, that sounds.
Carly Waters
It's also very boring to watch because I'm just out there in the water and then I'm doing.
Cece Lira
I would rather watch. I will take the boring.
Carly Waters
Well of course, yeah, you can hang at the finish line. Words.
Cece Lira
I Never thought I'd say I will take the boring. As I said, this sunlight just started like beaming on top of me like from my window. Like, like if the universe is listening, I like is this universe telling you.
Carly Waters
That you need to go outside and exercise?
Cece Lira
Okay, okay. That is fair.
Podcast Host / Announcer
Okay.
Cece Lira
If that's what you're telling me, universe, I. I can take it. Just please don't tell me to ever go do a triathlon because I will die. Unless you're telling me to die.
Carly Waters
Well, you will die because you haven't trained for it. And we don't want you to die. We want you to live.
Cece Lira
No, we need me alive. We need me alive so I can continue making my bad jokes.
Carly Waters
Oh man. Well, I think we covered some good ground today. We have lots, lots we want to hear from you guys from about the AI thoughts to if you guys finally understand what returns are to, you know, what you think of. Best of your list. If you think books are luxury goods, we want to hear all your comments. So that's what the Instagram reels are for to comment on and that is what the YouTube comment section is for. So thanks for hanging out with us for another week, guys. We're always glad to hang out.
Cece Lira
Thank you. Thank you. See you next week.
Podcast Host / Announcer
Cece Lira is a literary agent at Wendy Sherman Associates. If you'd like to query CC, please refer to the submission guidelines@www.wsherman.com. carly Waters is a literary agent at P.S. literary Agency, but her work on this podcast is not affiliated with the agency and the views expressed by Carly on this podcast are solely that of her as a podcast co host and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, policies, or position of PS Literary Agency. Hi there. We've got a lot we're really excited to tell you about, but I'm going to make this real quick so you can get to the episode. The Deep Dive is coming up at the end of January. The lineup of speakers is incredible and the range of topics is mind blowing. You do not want to miss out on the last Deep Dive ever. Then the Beta reader matchup is open once again, with the matchups going out early in February. Sign up to kick your creative year off with a bang. Lastly, there's an amazing writer's workbook available which will make the perfect gift for you or the writer in your life. Head to our website the Shit About Writing to find out more.
Podcast: The Shit No One Tells You About Writing
Hosts: Carly Watters & CeCe Lyra
Date: December 8, 2025
This episode tackles the emotional, practical, and sometimes unseen aspects of the publishing world—from navigating the highs and lows of “best of year” lists, to anxieties surrounding AI in publishing, to the reality of being a "midlist bestseller." Carly and CeCe offer real data, industry insights, and plenty of candid, relatable reflections for authors navigating the often turbulent waters of the book business.
Timestamps: 04:55 – 10:53
Overview of Recent Book Sales Trends
Quote:
How Book Cover Designs Can Be Influenced
Memorable Moment:
Timestamps: 10:53 – 17:38
New Study Out of the UK—Author Fears of AI
Quote:
"I want to go on the record and say something. When I—universe, if you're listening—when I say I want dystopian stories, I mean in fiction...I do not want this dystopic reality. I am deeply freaked out about it." — CeCe (12:50)
Both hosts agree that most authors don’t want AI-written fiction and worry more about systemic inequality than about current AI fiction quality. Still, most are okay with using AI for fact research. (17:15)
Quote:
Timestamps: 21:07 – 28:29
How Lists Work, What They Mean for Authors
Quote:
“[Kirthana] found this...genius way of tackling that, which is she nominated herself, created her own list, and celebrated the fact that it made her best of year list...Isn't that cool? I love that energy and I want everyone to feel inspired by that energy." — CeCe (23:42)
While these lists can drive real bookstore sales (especially for kids’ books and big box stores), many deserving books (and authors) go unrecognized, leading to mixed emotions and the “nemesis energy” of the publishing world. (25:11-27:44)
Memorable Moment:
Timestamps: 28:51 – 36:39
Gillian (or Jillian) McAllister’s Viral Instagram on Success
Quote:
“Publishing is institutionalized gambling...It can be maddening and frustrating...but the magical thing about gambling is that at any moment you could have a winning hand.” — CeCe (31:32)
Hosts discuss how breakout often comes after years or multiple books, citing Liane Moriarty as a prime example.
Substack Analysis: Andromeda Romano Lax on the Numbers Behind the Lists
Quote:
On Consignment and Returns:
“I don’t think that the general public realizes that books are sold on consignment. It’s not a situation where the bookstore buys the inventory and then takes the risk...there are exceptions, but in general, books are returnable by the stores.” — CeCe (07:32)
On AI Dystopia vs. Capitalist Reality:
“I don’t think the money is in the AI slop. I think the money is...how this industry has existed for hundreds of years, which is like, humans have to create the thing.” — Carly (14:58)
On Self-Awarding and Finding Joy:
“The best of the year books are the ones that are in our hearts and the ones that we support.” — Carly (26:54)
Consistently conversational, candid, and supportive—acknowledging real industry frustrations while also infusing humor and resilience.
For aspiring and working authors alike, this episode is a must-listen for its honest look at both the publishing machine’s mechanics and the emotional ride of bringing a book to market.