
Ed Niedermeyer is a journalist and author most known for his 2019 book "Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors". When it comes to the business of Tesla, he is one of the most well-respected and trusted voices. https://benbellabooks.com/shop/ludicrous/ https://www.autonocast.com/ Recorded April 1, 2025 Get TWENTY PERCENT off your DeleteMe plan when you go to https://www.joindeleteme.com/TIRE and use promo code TIRE at checkout. To listen to DRIVE with Jim Farley, just search for “DRIVE with Jim Farley” in your podcast app. https://www.youtube.com/@Jim.Farley New merch! Grab a shirt or hoodie and support us! https://thesmokingtireshop.com/ Want your question answered? To listen to the episode the day it's recorded? Want to watch the live stream, get ad-free podcasts, or exclusive podcasts? Join our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thesmokingtirepodcast Use Off The Record! and ALWAYS fight your tickets! Enter code TST25 for a 10% discount on your first case on th...
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Matt Farah
What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Smoking Tire Podcast. It's a big week here on the podcast, and off the Record is still with us. Of course, if you want to use off the Record, we have a new code for this year, TST 25 on the off the Record app. Throw away your old codes or go to offtherecord.com TST. Why should you do such things? Well, let's say you get a ticket.
Zach Clapman
You.
Matt Farah
You've been pulled over for something and are ticketed. Don't argue with that police officer on the side of the road. Instead, take that ticket and call or go on the app to off the Record and then they help fight that ticket. And most of the time, in most of the cases, make it either go away or drastically reduce it. It is the best. And if you use our code with the off the Record app, again, that's code TST25, you'll save an additional 10% list. Off the Record does not cost a lot of money compared to even just paying the fine and the ticket, let alone the other things about that moving violation that could cause problems with your insurance, your potential employment, et cetera. Don't plead guilty. Get off the record, go to offtherecord.com TST or use code TST25 on the off the Record Apple. All right. On this episode of the podcast, Ed Niedermeyer is in studio. He is an author. His book Ludacris is a must read on the Smoking Tire reading list. He is a podcaster, co host of the Autonicast, which is about AV development with our good friend Alex Roy. He is a writer for Automotive News and a freelancer for a whole bunch of other things. And he is probably the most poignant Elon Musk critic since before it was cool. Love talking to him. And, man, there's never been a better time to talk crap about Elon Musk. So it's 90 minutes of that with Ed Niedermeyer on the Smoking Tire.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's so hard to know what the right thing to do in this situation is. I actually chose not to delete my tweets because I want him to train AI on it, because I didn't think of that stuff that calls him out.
Matt Farah
That is funny.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's a niche thing for me. For most people, the calculus is gonna be a little different.
Matt Farah
But the AI that says he's like the Misinformation King is fabulous.
Ed Niedermeyer
I feel like when I see shit like that, I'm like, so that was why. That was what I was Going for you're.
Matt Farah
As usual, Ed Niedermeyer is one step beyond us mere mortals.
Ed Niedermeyer
I'm also really lazy is the other thing. And good at coming up with excuses for my laziness.
Matt Farah
Zach and I got booked on a very premium gig that was canceled at the last minute because of something I tweeted in three years ago.
Ed Niedermeyer
No shit.
Matt Farah
And if you read the tweet, you'd go, this is incredibly benign. Yeah, it was. In which I referred to someone as an Elon Musk bootlicker.
Ed Niedermeyer
You got dropped from a program for that?
Matt Farah
I got dropped from, like, a commercial gig. Nobody was like, you can't come drive the new GT3 because of this. No, no, no, no, no, no.
Ed Niedermeyer
Who cares that much?
Matt Farah
No, it was a very. It was not related to reviewing a high paid appearance. Commercial gig. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But like, after that, I was like, well, my old tweets cannot help me in any way. Get the fuck out of here.
Ed Niedermeyer
So you're just done with that now?
Matt Farah
I kept. I own the handle. Cause I don't want anybody else to use it, certainly. But every tweet I've ever tweeted is gone.
Ed Niedermeyer
Okay. And you're not.
Zach Clapman
Ed, will you move the mic a little closer? Yeah, sure. You can raise it too. I know it's low.
Matt Farah
There you go. Yeah. Cool.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, so. Because. Do you have a blue. You have a blue sky handle, don't you?
Matt Farah
I have a blue sky handle. I think I made a mastodon handle. I have. Whatever. The fucking other one. Truth Social threads.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Yeah.
Matt Farah
You know, I made them just so that no one else could make them.
Ed Niedermeyer
But that part of your life is over now.
Matt Farah
No, I just, like. Too much Internet's bad for you, man. It's. I don't know. I don't want to say you. That's irresponsible. Too much Internet is bad for me. It's really bad for me. And so obviously, I have to have a minimum amount of Internet. There's no fucking way not to. Right? So I've chosen Instagram. I think it's probably one of the less evil ones. I mean, considering Zuckerberg still one of the less, you know, whatever. It's not like it's not evil on the surface. It's not like, hey, guys, this is evil.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's a more nuanced kind of evil.
Matt Farah
And I did. I did dip my toe in blue sky. I dipped my toe in threads. And both of them, it was like, look, these are Twitter without Elon. Which is better. But it didn't make me feel any really much different. So I said, okay, let's not. But it's okay. But you, as someone who speaks truth to power to their faces. I do it from this chair. You do it to their faces a lot. It's important for you to be on those things.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, I mean, it is. Also, I think the short form, microblogging is just has its hooks in me. Like, there's something about that format that I really like.
Matt Farah
I mean, it's worked well for you in the past and it's.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's better now.
Matt Farah
I mean, that's probably how I found out about you. No, I found out about you from Truth About Cars.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
I've read you as far back as Truth About.
Ed Niedermeyer
Maybe even Alex Maybe.
Matt Farah
Yeah, maybe.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
But you're good at the Twitter format.
Ed Niedermeyer
I enjoy it.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
There's something about being for. Because, like, I'm like, naturally long winded, which is why I'm good at. I like, I enjoy podcasts, but then it's good to be forced to like. Right. And people on podcasts can't keep me concise.
Matt Farah
I can't hold you down. Well, it's weird, right? What works in 2025 is either incredibly short or incredibly long. That's absolutely nothing in between.
Ed Niedermeyer
Right, Right. That's so. So my most natural format for expression, weirdly, in writing, is like a thousand word. So I was at Bloomberg View for a number of years and like, the thousand word is. But I, like, I did it so much. I got really, really. But there's just no market. No one reads that shit. Yeah, it is. It's either the little quip. Yeah, right. Or it's the, like, seven hour. Like, I've just.
Matt Farah
I mean, dude, you know, I fuck with behind the Bastards. And they're doing four or five hours on a person.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep.
Matt Farah
And that person's always horrible. And so it's just. I think. I think that. I think there's. Among other things, we have no attention span, obviously. Right. No one has an attention span, but we also have longer commutes than ever.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
And so we just have so much time to fill in the car.
Ed Niedermeyer
This is the thing that I forget about living in Portland because, like, I literally don't get in a car Monday through Friday.
Matt Farah
That's nice.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's so nice.
Matt Farah
Nice.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's so nice. I mean, literally, maybe like once a week or twice a week.
Matt Farah
But you work from home.
Ed Niedermeyer
I work from home.
Matt Farah
Yeah. Okay.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, I work from home. Grocery store is two blocks away. Bars, restaurants, whatever. It's all, you know, 5, 10, 15 minute walk, jump on the bike if I want to go a little further. Honestly, like it's, it's. I forget how spoiled I am all the time.
Matt Farah
That is a nice thing.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
We used to have that when we lived in Venice and we don't have that at our new place and we didn't. We love our new house and we like our new neighbors, but we did not realize that what we were missing by not having that.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep.
Matt Farah
And it was like, ooh, short sighted on that one a little bit.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's crazy when you're, when your situation changes, your physical environment changes like that. Like it really is. It's like the fish in the water. Like you just don't. You take it for granted, whatever it is. Right. And then it's only when it changes that you realize like for me it's, it's coming to California. You know, I go to the Bay Area a lot for work and stuff and I just remember like, holy shit, people spent. This is why people like cannot wait for self driving cars to be here. This is why people consume four hour podcasts. Like, these are all things that like, I have a hard time understanding until I go and like I'm in a physical space that, that most other people live in, which is really different.
Matt Farah
I consume an enormous volume of podcasts because my transit time is insane.
Ed Niedermeyer
I bet.
Matt Farah
Just always. And I'm at the high. I mean, but my general manager here, dude, I think every single one of my employees here commutes like an hour each way or more. And the fires have made it way worse. PCH being closed from the fire is fucking shit up. If you live in the Valley right now, north of la, and you quote over the hill right now is hell because everyone west of the Palisades has to lap around. It is fucked up, you know?
Ed Niedermeyer
You know when people went LA people and Angelinos are like, the traffic's bad, you know, bro.
Matt Farah
Let me ask the question, Zach Clapman and why aren't they running a fucking ferry? Why isn't there a ferry going from somewhere in western Malibu to the Santa Monica Pier?
Zach Clapman
I think, I mean western Malibu is. Oh, because they have to go all the way around. That's a good question. That'd be a pretty good idea.
Matt Farah
I bet you a ferry is shorter than driving all the way around in more traffic. Not necessarily a car ferry a person.
Zach Clapman
But you have to do that plus Uber, because so many people in la, I think live like, do they work in Santa Monica? Do they work in Beverly Hills.
Ed Niedermeyer
But there's like. It's the rail at Santa Monica.
Matt Farah
I'm just saying you could.
Ed Niedermeyer
If you. If it came into Santa Monica, you could.
Matt Farah
You get on the train is right there.
Zach Clapman
Way quicker than driving.
Matt Farah
It would be an alternative for people who wanted an alternative.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
I'm sure there's 10 good reasons why no one's done this, but like it's.
Zach Clapman
Only like a 4 miles is still there.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Not to swim in. You can't swim in it.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah.
Matt Farah
The surfers have to go to Orange County.
Ed Niedermeyer
Okay.
Matt Farah
Because the toxic from the fire.
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh, I haven't heard about this.
Matt Farah
Oh, no. It's gonna be like years before you can go in the water. Yeah. It's like up.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's so sad.
Matt Farah
Yeah, it's all. It's all bad.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Nothing good.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Nothing good.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Anyway, yeah, let's start on a real downer. Ed, what's going on with you?
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh, you know, just normal chill stuff.
Zach Clapman
Yeah. To go to an uplifting place. What have you been covering lately?
Matt Farah
How does it feel to be writing a book about a person who then ends up taking over the entire government before you finish the book? That's question number three.
Ed Niedermeyer
I have written down here. I feel like I've been.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
People are like, you know, did you see this coming? And it's like, it's really weird to have been one of the biggest Elon Musk haters and like not at all have predicted that it could have gotten this bad.
Matt Farah
You don't have that Sarah Kendzior weight of being right.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
You know, like.
Ed Niedermeyer
No, I mean, I've been, I've been. I've been right about some things.
Matt Farah
About a lot.
Ed Niedermeyer
I just had no idea that it could possibly get.
Zach Clapman
Do you think you bullied him into this behavior with your fact based book?
Ed Niedermeyer
My conscience is clean on that one. Yeah, yeah.
Matt Farah
No, you're to musk what Obama was.
Zach Clapman
You heard him so deviously.
Matt Farah
Didn't make fun of him. He never would have done this. You made him do it.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, I would love to take credit. Well, actually, no, but that's the fucking bully.
Matt Farah
That's the bully argument. Right. If you fucking shut up and left me alone, I wouldn't have to do this.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah, exactly. Look what you made me do.
Matt Farah
Straight abuser mentality.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Matt Farah
Well, Ed's first book, Ludacris, is a must read, TST reading list. Absolute must read. In fact, I would like go so far as to call it like a starting point because me and Ed have Been calling this guy a piece of shit for a really long time. And now everybody else gets to learn. If they didn't at Twitter.
Ed Niedermeyer
Right.
Matt Farah
If they didn't hit Twitter, now they're gonna learn.
Ed Niedermeyer
Well, I think it's good. And, you know, this be my big sales pitch here, but, like, it's, you know, I'm all for hating on people, but, like, the best thing about being a hater is that you. Is you actually learn things. Like, actually, that's the really interesting thing about the Tesla thing. For years, I remember realizing a really long time ago that the fans understood less than the haters because, like, for them, it was all about, like, lore, essentially. They were like. They were like Tolkien fans or like Star wars fans or something, where it's like, all about reciting and. And. And sort of building this sort of, like, largely imaginary world of. Of, like, lore. Whereas the haters.
Matt Farah
Culty.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Zach Clapman
Fan group. Right. The fan groups aren't going to look into the truth of something. Yeah. They're going to look at what they like and silo themselves or, you know, that's why. What about isms are so popular because someone goes, you shit on my floor. And like, well, what about the time your dog pooped on my floor? Or whatever? And you don't want to look at the actual truth.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. And so you're exactly right. They won't engage with the criticism because they can't. There's just no. They know there's nowhere to go with it, and so they just sort of ignore it. And as a result, they end up preventing themselves from learning about the thing that they're supposedly a fan of. There's a real deep irony to it. And yeah, it's been really kind of.
Zach Clapman
If you learn too much about it, it might make you question your view of that thing.
Ed Niedermeyer
Exactly.
Zach Clapman
And therefore the one thing, it threatens your allegiance to the tribe.
Ed Niedermeyer
Because learning. Right. Is about thinking critically about stuff. It's about questioning things and trying to figure out, like, what is the actual answer here. And the whole dynamic is him spoon feeding you some slop that you just num, num, num, num.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
You know, and. And don't. And don't question it. And as soon as you start thinking for yourself, it becomes very difficult. And this was. Even in the early days, it was sort of easier. And it just got harder and harder and harder to think for yourself and continue to just be a fan. And so you saw, like, smart people there used. There used to be smart Elon fans. Once upon a time, I Remember there being smart Elon fans and like there just aren't anymore.
Matt Farah
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Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, I mean I think there's like, there are definitely religions that you know, have sort of economic mutual development as part of it and you know, beneficial.
Zach Clapman
Pyramid schemes, society, the, that Kundalini yoga. I watched that documentary about that little cult thing and the Financial incentive was you're in the community and where they live at this property, like, you have everything provided for you. And so if you go against it and get ostracized, and you. Especially if. The longer you've lived in the cult, the less you know how to operate in the normal world.
Matt Farah
40 years asking permission to piss.
Ed Niedermeyer
But, Matt, you're right, though, that, like, it is pretty unique to have this. This kind of cult or religion where it's like the. If you tell this story, if you evangelize this story, this narrative, and more people accept it as true, you will, as a stockholder, become more wealthy. And that's one piece that's super unique. The other piece is the tools with which to do that, which is the Internet.
Matt Farah
Right.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's the other piece that's really unique. And I think that you take those two pieces and you put almost any. In a way, we're lucky that it wasn't some weirder religion that sort of grabbed those two pieces first. In a way, the fact that it was an electric car. It's just an electric car company.
Matt Farah
Yeah. Like, what if Elrond was fucking doing it? Right?
Ed Niedermeyer
There's a lot of personalities that you can imagine with those two pieces, if they'd figured it out.
Zach Clapman
Yeah, I mean, that's definitely happening now.
Ed Niedermeyer
Also, the preview of coming attractions, unfortunately. Yeah.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Zach Clapman
This trailer sucks.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. I mean, I've been saying for a while for all the bad, and I was saying this more before, you know, Elon really, you know, hit his top gear or whatever. But, you know, in a lot of ways, you know, the danger of Elon is not just what he does, but it's the example he sets. Of course, you know, and all of the copycats are gonna come.
Matt Farah
It's that, like, stochastic kind of terror vibe where you just. You just sort of got pushed shit in a way where someone is gonna do some fucking crazy thing, and then you can be like, oh, all I said was. And then that sounds an awful lot like January 6th. I don't know, but maybe it does. That just sounds a little bit kind of the same.
Ed Niedermeyer
Well, and in the whole, like, every. Was. Every accusation is a confession. That's, of course, now what they're accusing those of us who are involved in the protest movement.
Matt Farah
Oh, the one from today. I did the thing I shouldn't have done. Woke up this morning, looked at some news, like, ruined your day before you.
Ed Niedermeyer
Got out of be.
Matt Farah
Yeah, you must. You get musk watch.
Ed Niedermeyer
You must.
Matt Farah
Right. From popular information. Yeah, you fucking popular Popular information is awesome. Judd Legum, very data driven. Calling out of spin bullshit. They have like, Elon Musk was so much news, they spun off an entire newsletter that's just. And it's like 2,000 words twice a week.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's crazy. I know. I see this stuff and I'm like, why did I. Why am I working on a book right now that won't be doing a.
Matt Farah
For fucking all these. But just like from this morning, it was like Elon is up on stage handing out million dollar checks to quote, voters in Wisconsin. And on stage yelling about George Soros like, you're doing the thing that's.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, my head is going to explode. Yeah. No, and saying that the, the people who are pushing the quote unquote lies and propaganda are the ones that are like responsible for the violence and the vandalism. Like, that's, that's really exciting too. And like an FBI task force, right, and all that. Yeah, yeah. Chill times.
Matt Farah
Cool.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. It's a good time to be a car fan.
Matt Farah
Yeah. So make sure if you want to say something secretly, you know, without them finding out, you signal.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah, right. That's always. Just make sure you got a journalist on the chat.
Matt Farah
Oh, it's great.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, it's just.
Matt Farah
Thank God they're so stupid, right? We can always fall when, you know, when the government is falling apart. You can always count on stupidity to be the last backstop. Maybe.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
I don't know.
Zach Clapman
Yeah, I don't think it matters. They just deny it and they roll past it.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, that's a problem. A strength at a certain point. So shit anyway.
Matt Farah
Yeah, but okay, so your ludicrous ends. Like the problem with this fucking guy is where do you end a book? There's 4,000 words a week of news about this dude. So how do you pick where to stop? I mean, even the last book, I think FSD was like right on the thing and you had to stop, right?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah. No, like writing a book about Elon Musk and his companies is the worst thing. There's a reason not very many people have done it. And it's because everything is moving. Right. If you assume it's a year long process, take any year from the last decade and look at what was happening with Tesla and Elon at the beginning of that year and at the end. And like it's just crazy. And you think about. Yeah, trying to write a book over that kind of period or really longer for ludicrous. And it's bonkers. Like so. So by the time you get close to ending. Things are changing a lot with Ludicrous. I just dealt with that by really trying knowing upfront that I wasn't gonna tell the whole story. There was gonna be more story at the end. And I didn't know how it was going to end. And so I really tried to identify what are the dynamics from like the beginning of the company that have sort of fueled it. You know, every story has its sort of like dynamics that sort of drive it forward. And for Tesla it was, you know, this whole thing of like not understanding the car business but being really good at the Silicon Valley fundraising game and sort of that sort of slowly overcoming the problems of so making up for the problems you have on the car business side. Right. Because you're, you don't know what you're doing and you're one mistake after the other. But then you're like, okay, we'll plug the gap. With all of this capital coming in, way more money.
Matt Farah
Money will. Yeah, that's a great lesson to learn for life, guys.
Ed Niedermeyer
Well, and then, and then essentially it became this self driving fraud that is now, you know, eclipsed the car company part of it, basically. So that's what the second book now is about. It's about the, about autopilot and full self driving, the FSD scam. So it's not like a what if.
Matt Farah
It works before you finish the book.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, that's one risk I'm willing to run. Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty and when you're dealing with much uncertainty, as I have to deal with you, you, you know, focus on what's really uncertain and what isn't and. Yeah, he's not going to deliver. Yeah, that's not pretty.
Matt Farah
It's not happening.
Ed Niedermeyer
Although, although the way it is timing it is hard because the deployment is supposed to happen in June in Austin and I have to absolutely have a draft in by then. Like there's no way I can push it out that long. So there will be a little bit of a cliffhanger at the end. Maybe what I did with Ludacris, which is add one chapter after a year. Like a year after it comes out.
Matt Farah
Yeah, I forgot you did that.
Ed Niedermeyer
When the soft back comes out, add another chapter, kind of catch you up a little bit. Probably will go down to Austin just to check it out. But at the end of the day, when a guy's like, I'm gonna do this by the end of the year for eight years, I can't put a damn draft on him. Like, as a critic, it Makes no sense for me to, like, put anything on hold thinking, maybe he'll deliver on this thing.
Matt Farah
And that's his game. Right? I mean, his whole thing is he.
Ed Niedermeyer
He.
Matt Farah
Apparently everyone said he couldn't do any of the things that he's done. I'm not sure where all these people are that are like, you can't do this. I don't know where those people are. Yeah, maybe they exist.
Ed Niedermeyer
I've never. Like, the SpaceX one is the one like, oh, everyone said he couldn't land rockets. I've never found a single. Like, I looked. I've looked too. I looked. I was like, who was the person writing op ed saying, this guy can't land rockets? I've never found one.
Matt Farah
If anybody out there listens to this show and was in the room.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
When people were like, listen, dude, you cannot land a rocket. I've never heard that. I've never heard any of the shit he did being fought against by some major organization or even a small one or any.
Zach Clapman
But this is a psychology. Yeah. You create an enemy whether they exist or they don't exist, and that you.
Matt Farah
Apply that to everything else. Like, even if people said you can't land a rocket and you could land at a rocket, what the fuck does that have to do with a car?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, Nothing. Nothing. I mean, it doesn't even have anything to do with, like, why is SpaceX never turned a profit? I mean, like, I thought.
Matt Farah
I thought governments should run, like, businesses. Damn it.
Ed Niedermeyer
Like, it is cool to watch the rockets land. It is something that people can mentally process as, like, oh, yeah, if you reuse it, it saves money. People don't know about the rocket business. You know what I mean? People don't understand it.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Why has it never turned a profit?
Matt Farah
Well, that's like that. You know that the greatest tweet of all time, which was like, you know, when. When Elon was building electric cars and everyone said he was a genius, I didn't know anything about electric cars, so I just, like, listened. And when everyone said he was a genius with the rockets, I just listened. But, like, I'm a software engineer and I've never seen dumber shit than this Twitter thing.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's called the Realization. You're like, yeah, yeah, no. And literally, for me, it was just. I just happened to. To be into battery swap.
Matt Farah
The battery swap, you know, someone's a thing. Someone who actually has delivered on battery swap.
Ed Niedermeyer
Byd neo.
Matt Farah
Neo.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Yeah.
Matt Farah
Have you seen it?
Ed Niedermeyer
No. You know, it's funny, I was supposed to go to China and then Neo ran into some kind of financial. I had like the lives like getting my visa and then they ran into some like financial trouble and, and they got bailed out. Obviously they're still around but, but the trip got canceled so I would like to see it someday. I still, you know, I think like a lot of things in China, it's, it's really exciting and really like they're pushing the envelope in so many different ways. That's where all the action is in the car business. I don't know how really sustainable as a business all of that really is. I still don't fully understand how the privately owned car model works with battery swap.
Matt Farah
I don't either.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, but look, when I'm done with this book, I'd love to go to China and learn more.
Matt Farah
I just read a story about a new breakthrough in battery recycling as well. Something that is able to break the battery into quite small pieces that become usable essentially. I mean it was a. I don't want to say the wrong thing, so I don't want to try to guess exactly what it said, but it was a pretty interesting breakthrough in battery recycling which is something that a lot of anti EV people and even a lot of good faith EV people like myself are like, well, what happens end of life. So I'm interested in that as a topic.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, especially with the big battery model that we're sort of pursuing. I mean we'll see if. I mean it seems like the market has sort of tapped out here with that approach, like. Yeah, but you know, if we're going to move to a world where we just replace all the cars with you know, 300 mile EVs, if we don't have what they call circular supply chain, it just isn't going to happen.
Matt Farah
It's going to be really problematic and.
Zach Clapman
We, and we don't want to be like the you know, plastic thing where it's like recycling is a bit of a lie.
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh my God.
Zach Clapman
And I mean it causes all kinds of problems. But like if they said that they could recycle the batteries but they're just dumping it somewhere, it seems like an even bigger problem.
Ed Niedermeyer
Absolutely.
Zach Clapman
So yeah, people, I mean what's cool is like the market does usually respond to things so someone, if they can figure it out, there's a business for it. Right.
Matt Farah
I mean recycle stripped down its batteries. The technology is there. It's just like, is it, can you scale it?
Zach Clapman
Is it financially?
Ed Niedermeyer
Like a lot of things, a lot of it is just sort of setting up supply chains. Like how do you get everyone's used phones and used devices and funnel them, the batteries from them and those materials all to, you know, like setting. It's a different kind of supply chain. I think that, that people, again, people fixate on the technology. And a lot of times, you know, like in the car business, you know, there's not a lot of cutting edge technology necessarily in car factories. People assume that's where these advantages come from. A lot of times it's just, you know, organizing stuff and having a supply chain built up and operating at, you know, kind of mundane stuff that people just sort of take for granted because.
Matt Farah
It'S not shaving half a second here in a. In process.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep. Yeah, same part. Yeah.
Matt Farah
Oh, dude. There's just like there's so many things going on right now. So I just. We just were talking two episodes ago about this dude's video where he showed a lidar car versus the camera based system.
Ed Niedermeyer
Mark Roberts.
Matt Farah
Mark Roberts, thank you. And so you've now spent how much time studying FSD and I mean, is there anything drastically new to learn? Guys, support for the smoking tire comes from the podcast Drive with Jim Farley. You know Jim Farley, he's the CEO of Ford. Not only that, this guy has a GT40 and a Cobra and all kinds of amazing vintage American metal that he races wheel to wheel at places like Goodwood. He's a boss. And you gotta check out this show. It's where Jim talks to some of his favorite people about what they drive and what drives them to succeed. We just started season three with some sick new guests, including Vicki Butler Henderson, the British racing driver and fifth gear personality Randy Nonenberg from Bring a Trailer and T Pain, the musician turned drifter. Guy's got skills. Actually, I listened to it the other day. It is great. Jim is a great interviewer. He's insightful and it's interesting hearing these folks open up to him. I really am about it. I support Jim's venture here to listen to Drive with Jim Farley. Just search Drive with Jim Farley in any podcast app. That's Drive with Jim Farley. And thank you for supporting this episode. Is there anything drastically new to learn about the HW4 versus HW3? I mean, is any of this shit meaningfully getting closer to what the thousand waymos a day I see running around my city without people dropping driving them are doing?
Ed Niedermeyer
No, no. I mean, I. Well, it's just a matter of, you know, automation as a technology works a certain way and you Know, so, so it's funny, when I, when Ludacris came out, I needed to get away from the journalism thing and I went to Partners for Automated Vehicle Education, which is like this public education thing. And I spent, you know, almost two years there. I spent a lot of time thinking about not trying to come up with new information about these technologies, but thinking about how to explain them in a really digestible way. Because that was really what the issue was. The issue has never been that there's secrets to this technology that are totally beyond like comprehension to mere mortals. It's that you have to kind of break it down into the. Into what? Essentially a mental model. Like I, for myself, like, I don't even have a bachelor's degree, right. How is it that I've been able to talk to a lot of people like I could not engineer an autonomous vehicle, right. But I have a good mental model. That was like the big breakthrough for me was like, understand the mental model. And so what I've. One of the things I've tried to do with this book is, or that I'm working on right now with this book is to just explain this technology in a really simple way. And I think the big breakthrough for me was understanding that the way people misunderstand it the most, and the reason people believe in Tesla and what they're doing is because when you say autonomous vehicle, people build a mental model for the technology that's based on what they know. And what they know is cars and vehicles. So I think it's a car that drives itself okay and. Right. Makes sense. But the problem is that car has these two features. One is that it's affordable enough for you to own, and the other is that it goes everywhere. Sure, right. Like whether you're driving a mile or a thousand miles, mountains, desert, wherever, it has to work everywhere, same car. So it's essentially level five, what we call in the automation. And affordable enough for you to own. Well, those are the two hardest things for this technology to do. So if you build your mental model around a car, you're going to have a very skewed. That mental model is based on the attributes of not just a car, but a gas car really. And that's going to confuse you about the technology. Instead, what you want to do is think of it as a robot, because that's really what it is, it's automation. So in automation you have. It's a spectrum of automation, right? So on one end of that spectrum you have something like a self driving car, which is also What Elon is selling, which is a humanoid general purpose robot, right? That's the self driving car of robots. Because it does everything. It's one device that does it all. And that is the hardest thing to automate. There is no general purpose automation. The other end of that spectrum is like an arm with a tool inside of a cage.
Matt Farah
Yeah, yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
You know, and so you have this spectrum of robots. The humanoid general purpose robot is science fiction. It's C3PO. It doesn't exist. It's not real. But that doesn't mean robots aren't real. Robots are very real. The arm in the tool in the cage makes millions of dollars every second around the world, you know, and so there's this. So you have to like ground people in understanding of what the technology is. The reason that Tesla will never be able to deliver is the same reason that people want to believe in it. Right. It's not technologically plausible, but it's how they've presented it is what people want. They just want their car that they own. Right.
Matt Farah
People are immersed in car culture. They want everything about a car that also can drive itself anywhere at any time.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's right.
Matt Farah
Which is fucking not happening anytime soon.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's a fantasy. And if you understand that fundamentally what you're doing, again, it's just on a mental model level. There's a lot of intricacies to the technologies and they're evolving with time. But fundamentally, you're building a model of the world, right. And a model that helps you make decisions about how you navigate in the world. And if you think about, you know, like a goldfish bowl, you can make a data model, right. You scan everything in that all of the different things are in it. It's constrained, it's finite. And so. And it's like a game of chess, right. Where you know or go where it's very complex, but it's constrained complexity. And so you can build models that are really, really better than humans at these kinds of constrained things. The other thing that you have to do is you have to give the agent like basically perfect information in a game. Like you play chess or go. There's no confusion about where the pieces are.
Matt Farah
Right.
Ed Niedermeyer
Everyone knows. Right. That's hard to do in driving.
Matt Farah
Sure.
Ed Niedermeyer
And this is why you need the robust sensor suites. Right. So you need LIDAR and radar and really cutting edge expenses.
Matt Farah
Acoustic and whatever.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Ultrasonic. Yeah. So that's why Waymo is working and Tesla isn't, is that Waymo is treating this like a robot. They're saying A taxi never leaves a city. So you have constrained domain and they're doing a job. It's a revenue stream, it's a commercial air problem. So it pays off the cost of the sensors and everything. This is a robot doing a job. That's not what a car is. So that's why that works and that's why Tesla isn't working, is because what Tesla's trying to do is just fundamentally so different.
Matt Farah
Yeah. I'll tell you what it does do, is it fucking derails public transit really nicely and it basically allows you to just continue selling a fantasy, mostly indefinitely.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. So this is the thing and like, I feel like you're one of the only people I can kind of talk to about this because we were talking about this before we started recording. But the Venn diagram, right, of like people who understand and are into cars, but also see that there are other better ways of doing things.
Matt Farah
Right.
Ed Niedermeyer
There's not a lot of folks that fall in that, in that divide.
Matt Farah
Well, yeah, because it's car dependents and car enthusiasts and they're the same thing. The most car enthusiastic people I know also fucking hate traffic and congestion and things like that. In a pretty equal measure.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. What's fascinating is that there's this real divide in driving, automation, tech between people who get that this is something different than cars, that this technology fundamentally wants to be different than cars. It's not a natural fit for cars. Cars versus the people who see that cars are this incredible. Like cars have all this scale, right. Like a car company builds 10 million cars a year. If that can be your platform that you can write, then that it's like the commercial appeal of that plus the sort of, you don't have to change the market. You're meeting people where they are. There's all these things that make some people just say that, and Elon is one of them. Elon is the leading figure in this. Of like, nothing is going to change about how we get around. It's just that the car is going to drive for you versus And I think one of the really interesting challenges is that, is that it's hard for folks in the tech sector and you know, who believe in this technology in a real way, the real version of it. It's almost overwhelming for them to argue like, hey, like this is different than cars. This is. But people appeal. Like technology appeals to people in a way that just saying, like, hey, if we design cities in a different way, it would be better for like, that's too abstract for people. I Hope hopefully this cutting edge technology that has this like whiz bang thing, I think hopefully it will get people to start to understand mobility in a way that gets them, this starts to pull them out of this car. Blindered view of cars are the only way.
Matt Farah
Once they realize that personally owned self driving cars are not a likely thing in their lifetime. Maybe. But like man, people want to live in the actual future so bad. Like the future that was like sold to us in like the 80s and 90s, like people will. And that the Silicon Valley sort of hockey stick valuation mindset is pretty much that if you will the fucking future here, it'll just be, it'll come to you, it'll just be here and it just, it doesn't fucking work like that.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, no. And it's funny. And again I think car enthusiasts have the like can see this more clearly because if you, if you enjoy driving, right, you don't enjoy driving in the city. We've talked about this before. Like it's not just a matter of like it's better for everyone to automate inside the city where you're just stuck in traffic anyway. And then you go outside the city. It's also. That's how the technology works best.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Is if you constrain it. Right. And so it's like if you're going, if you live on the edge of town, if you're going into the city, you take a Robotaxi or a shuttle or something like that because whatever, you know, you're not having fun driving anyway. And if you're going out of the city, that's where the automation is going to struggle with, you know, weather and dirt roads and poor signage and like weird animals and other kinds of like randomness is, you know, and so, and so that. But that's where you want to drive anyway. So there's actually this real alignment between how the technology works and this like coexistence of auto enthusiasm and like mobility as a commodity sort of.
Matt Farah
Same thing for the ev, daily driver and sports car for the weekend. Assuming you don't live in a walkable place. You know, I don't covet a super fast EV to blast up a mountain on a weekend, but this fucking traffic jam right here. It is pretty nice.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep, absolutely.
Matt Farah
But we. I've seen so much problems in cars solved with better training and better like not even road design, like better like paint, like better road fucking painting. Like better markers of what to do and sort of how to do it and avoiding of ambiguity kind of thing. I just feel like, we've not. We're so ready to give up control of our vehicles to computers, and we're nowhere near what an optimized human driver looks like. Like, not even close.
Ed Niedermeyer
The crazy. The really. The thing that I really didn't expect was, you know, after almost 10 years of, like, riding in AVs and autonomous vehicles and. And trying to understand and learn that technology, it's given me such an appreciation for driving.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's like I. I've learned to see driving through new eyes when you start to understand what is hard for them. So, like, one of the classic examples, one of the hardest things for an AV is, like, someone on a corner. Like. Like. And, like, people don't think about this as a pedestrian. Right. But, like. Like, if you are walking up to a corner, but then you sort of stop and you look around or you pull out your phone or whatever, like, there's this ambiguity in your movements that are. It's literally from a statistical. Like, if you're using statistics, essentially, and. And data about the world around you to understand what is this person gonna do? You become unpredictable at a certain point. Whereas straight and with, like, purpose.
Matt Farah
Yeah. All the demonstration is people walking across a road. It's not someone, like, hovering about going, oh, where am I gonna go?
Zach Clapman
That's body language that we've learned to identify as people. And you can go look at that person. Like, if you're driving and approaching the corner and you're like, oh, they're slowing, phones coming out. They're looking both directions. Oh, okay. They're probably not sure which crosswalk to use. And we can kind of assess. But, like, the Waymo car might not be able to do that yet.
Ed Niedermeyer
And we have. We have the ability to put ourselves in that person's shoes without even thinking about it consciously. Like, it really. It not only makes you understand, like, how complex driving is, but it also makes you realize how much your subconscious brain is doing. You know, one of the things with Tesla that hit me really hard early on was, like, I realized people think the car is driving itself because the wheel is automated and the pedals are automated. What's driving? It's moving the wheel and operating the pedals. Except that. No, those are the very last parts of the driving task. See, and this is, again, you study this technology, and they're like, there's this thing called the driving task. And what is that? Well, it starts with situational awareness.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
What's going on around you? What are the static parts of your street scene? What are the dynamic Parts of those dynamic parts, which ones are moving, what speed. And once you start to understand that, a computer has to basically brute force all this stuff to understand what's going around it. And the process is.
Matt Farah
And they're doing it bottom up. They're doing it just based on, like, what are these pictures? And, like, humans go the other way.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
We're doing the inverted.
Ed Niedermeyer
A burger in our hand and, like, you know, a phone call going, like. And we're still able to, like, have these incredibly, like, nuanced perceptions of what people are doing right now and what they're about to do. It's incredible. And. Yeah. What's. I think the tragic part of it is, is that we don't appreciate. Right. Like, if you really understand the technology and you get into it, it makes you appreciate driving more. And it. I don't know. Like, it's kind of frustrating that people are so anxious to just get rid of that responsibility. For me, I see a parallel also with, like, political stuff. People just sort of like to abdicate responsibility. Generally. People feel like, I want to wield ultimate power. I want to have 500 horsepower or whatever. But, like, I don't want to have to try too hard. I kind of want to just be, like, lazy about. And it's like, this is kind of how we live our lives in, like, so many ways.
Matt Farah
Yeah. I want all the power. I want none of the responsibility.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
And. Yeah, that sounds right.
Ed Niedermeyer
But the problem is that when you literally.
Matt Farah
It sounds so much like America, but.
Ed Niedermeyer
When you look at the solutions that we're holding out hope for, not only are they far off from delivering everything we want them to.
Matt Farah
Yeah, we'd rather have sci fi wait. We'd rather wait for the possibility of sci fi, then do the hard work, then move a sidewalk or something like that. We already know how to do.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's right.
Matt Farah
Yeah. And works in other places.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's very frustrating.
Matt Farah
Yeah, it's insanity.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, it's. It's a little bit like religion in its own way, you know, like something. Something will just descend and just sort of take care. Right. It's like the. Yeah, yeah.
Matt Farah
Life's shitty, but, like, don't worry. Yeah, we got you in here.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. There's a. There's a joke at the fall of the Soviet Union that there's two ways that Russia was going to sort of turn it around. There's the unlikely way and the impossible way. Like, the unlikely way was that the clouds would part and Archangel Michael would come down and magically fix everything. And the Impossible way was that the Russian people would roll up their sleeves and just fix it themselves.
Matt Farah
Oh, God. This doesn't sound familiar at all, does it? Shit. God. It's all good. Everything's good. Everything's good.
Ed Niedermeyer
I'm having a great time.
Matt Farah
Yeah. What makes you happy these days?
Ed Niedermeyer
Going to Tesla protests.
Matt Farah
Have you been going to Tesla protests?
Ed Niedermeyer
This last week was the seventh week in a row that I basically organized the Portland one.
Matt Farah
Really?
Ed Niedermeyer
By organized. I post about it on Blue sky and people show up.
Matt Farah
How many people showed up?
Ed Niedermeyer
550, I think was the town last week.
Matt Farah
That's pretty cool. And what are they doing when they're there?
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh, it's so. It gets. That's the best part. It gets more and more fun every week. So we get. We got bubbles. We have like three different DJs. Like, it's a party, people. So I've been. For the second week in a row, I realized I had this. This. It's a. The costume that I had for. It's Katy Perry left shark, you know, from the shark. And I just realized, like, I've been trying to make fun like many years ago for reasons that we don't need to get into. I happened to have it lying around and I realized, like. Cause I've never done this before. I'm an Internet guy or whatever. And like, you realize you're on the side of the road, you're really protesting for the cars driving past.
Matt Farah
Yes, definitely.
Ed Niedermeyer
You gotta be visible. You gotta catch their eyes. So I started thinking about the signs. How do we make signs that are like as visible as possible with messages that really hit people. And I realized, like, wait, if I put on this shark costume like that and oh boy, does it get too much. The shark works. So we get like in the median on this, like quite busy road, we have like a dance party essentially with like bubbles. I'm in my shark costume with a sign that's like, sell today. And like, we're just having fun.
Zach Clapman
You're like a sandwich card spinner, but with like a message.
Ed Niedermeyer
I have huge respect for the people who do that job. I. It's a lot of work.
Zach Clapman
Can I ask what, like, what is the agenda or objective of the protest?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, so the goal is to. It's funny because I think when it first started, the goal was just sort of like, hey, this Elon's doing bad things. Elon owns this company. We're just going to go to the stores as a way to.
Zach Clapman
Just to express your.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, it's just where we should protest. Right. It's like protest has this reflex, and that's great. And I think for a lot of people, that is. That's what it's about. The cool thing about. About the Tesla protest is that it's diverse. People are coming there, all ages, all backgrounds. Like, you read the signs and they all have different. You'll have sort of. I think the people at. I consider my people who are like, sell the stock, sell the car. But you see people with the Ukraine flag, you see people talking about constitution, about usaid. There's Elon pissing off all these people for all these reasons. A lot of people who are coming in are brand new to protesting. Some of them are old folks who've been protesting forever. Some of them are brand new. For me, what I'm trying to bring to the movement is this idea that this guy's vulnerable. And the thing is that people don't realize. People look at the wealth on paper that he has and it's like, compared to. It's like the Death Star, right? It's just like this overwhelming thing. And it's just like, oh, we can never. Billionaires in America, we can never do anything about this. Right. The thing is, is that Tesla is the only company that has ever turned a profit, ever. None of his companies have ever.
Matt Farah
At least maybe not even then. It's like, not actually that much. Right.
Ed Niedermeyer
It has never. And again, I don't have like the exact number, but no, it's not like, again, it's not like saying we need to Boycot, Facebook and Amazon, which are hard products to pull people away from and very profitable companies. No, no. This is $50,000 vehicles or more that have really adequate competition and are frankly kind of getting outdated a little bit.
Matt Farah
They're old cars.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. So they're expensive.
Matt Farah
The only car they have that isn't old sucks.
Ed Niedermeyer
So that's kind of, you know, we have the momentum on our sides. Like, most of the time when you're boycotting, it's because you're up against, against like this unstoppable force. We have it the opposite. We. There are. The business is already crashing. Like, it's really at an inflection point. The US Market is the. Is the inflection point of the inflection point. And so the goal is to stigmatize the brand, to let people know, like, you know, hey, like, you want to go buy a Tesla, you're going to see your neighbors out there saying, fuck that. Right? You want to service a Tesla, you're going to see your neighbors out there saying, fuck that. You want to supercharge, same deal. Like, don't. Because. Because the thing is, is that this is the only way to support Elon.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's his only source of cash.
Matt Farah
He doesn't have one company yet. He will.
Ed Niedermeyer
It is his meme coin. It's been.
Matt Farah
That's actually. God damn it. That's true.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's been his meme coin since 2013.
Matt Farah
Meme.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's like before that term existed.
Matt Farah
Damn it. Damn it. Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
This is why I think he's having problems with Xai and this other stuff is because those are also basically meme coins. They're all meme coins, essentially. And people are like, it was sort of easier when it was like, well, Tesla's the. You know, when like, like Space X would do a launch and all of a sudden Tesla stock would go up because it was. It was the meme coin. Now it's like a little more confusing about, like, which is the. You know, how does that all work?
Matt Farah
Which stock should be affected by the Sig Heil?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Right.
Matt Farah
And then which stock should be affected by the second Sig Heil?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Just to confirm the Sig Heil.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Yeah.
Matt Farah
It's important to do two.
Zach Clapman
They cosigned it.
Matt Farah
Cosign the second. And yeah, it's okay.
Ed Niedermeyer
Importing white South Africans. Like, I just. It's so mind boggling. But. But yeah, that's what makes me honestly. And what I tell people. A, it's like he's vulnerable. We can bring him down if this stock keeps crashing. Like, if their Q3 numbers are, where.
Matt Farah
Does it have to get to for it to become like, I don't know if it's not like Margin Call, but, like, we got a ways to that level.
Ed Niedermeyer
So for the margin call, we have a ways to go. But the reality is, is that if a stock is not built on fundamentals, it's built on value and the momentum. He's always had the momentum. Like, for a decade, like, I've been reporting stuff that would be a big problem for any other company. And like, maybe the stock myself and others. By the way, lots of other people have been reporting really, like, horrible, horrible stuff about this company. The stock would maybe go down a little bit and then go right back up. Now they're the ones fighting momentum. They're the ones where the stock went down for like two weeks and they had to get the president up there. Like, you know, selling cars in front of the White House was sad. And that got them like three days of like, Half hearted bump and then, you know, heading right back down again. And so we have all the momentum on our side. Plus, plus it gets us out from the doom scrolling. Gets us out from behind the computer.
Zach Clapman
You connect with exercise.
Ed Niedermeyer
Seriously. Go, go.
Matt Farah
What's your favorite nickname for a cyber truck? Oh, man, I'm really kind of vibing with Wank Panzer.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, I think right now is kind.
Matt Farah
Of the Von Vonza is quite good. Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
The swastika thing.
Matt Farah
Swastikar. Yeah, yeah, I'm down with that.
Zach Clapman
One of the signs, Incel Camino is still my favorite. A couple weeks ago I didn't come up with genius.
Matt Farah
Yeah, yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
One of the signs I made for the protest is, is it says all. All Teslas look like cybertrucks to me. And then it's the, it's the. It's the metal urinal that looks like a cybertruck, you know, the triangular metal urinal. And I kind of want to do it because I do feel like the people Model threes, the Model Ys feel a little like safe and anonymous because it's like, oh, no, everyone's like focused on the cybertrucks and I kind of want to be like, no, no, we see you too.
Zach Clapman
What if. So what if, like, if Elon left the company and not Shadow CEO, like quote left, but really was doing all the things. But if, you know, if the board, which, if they grew a spine first and then formally kicked him out. And I say that because they reward him, this giant compensation package, et cetera, et cetera. But like, what if he was removed from it? Would then you have this. And you and other people have this, like, antagonism towards the brand or is it more about him?
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean, so that's. It's a good question. I just don't think it's possible or anything's possible. I think it's vanishing unlikely. And I think, I think you're.
Zach Clapman
Saint Michael will come down before that.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah, exactly. And it's the compensation package, like you mentioned, that was the litmus test. Right. Like, if you're going to go up against the Delaware Chancery Court, right, And say that like Delaware corporate law is what's the problem? Like, that's. You're never, you're never, as a, as a corporate board, you know, of a company that's worth the rest of the year, you're never going to step back from that. So as far as I'm concerned, like, that was the. I wondered about this a lot until about a year ago. And when that came out. I was like, that's it. Like, there's no AEB here. Like, Elon's going to drive this into the wall.
Matt Farah
And, like, if we're lucky, you know, it'll be like. Before he wrecks the entire country. If we're lucky.
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean, Tesla is getting wrecked faster than the country. It's close.
Matt Farah
Yeah, it's close.
Ed Niedermeyer
He's working hard on both. But Tesla's in tug of war between.
Matt Farah
Tesla and the rest of the country or collision course.
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean, Tesla's basically been in sort of holding off, like, pretty significant decline for like, two years now. They've just been lowering the price and lowering the margins and, like, they can't do that forever.
Matt Farah
There are no other new models?
Ed Niedermeyer
No.
Matt Farah
Like, facelifted Model Y.
Ed Niedermeyer
Like, okay, the Model 3 staved off decline for what, like six months?
Matt Farah
Two maybe.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. I mean, Model Y will do the same.
Matt Farah
And to be fair, like, in a vacuum, like, the. The Model 3 and Model Y are like, they're okay cars. There's nothing. I don't have anything. Like, they're like medium shitty, but they're not like that. They're not the only cars that are medium shitty, but they're old.
Ed Niedermeyer
They're old and the people who made those cars are gone. Doug Feel.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Who is essentially like the guy, Right. He's a Ford now. Like, the talent again. We were talking about the fans.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
The talent leaves for the exact same reasons that the smart fans do.
Matt Farah
Yeah, well, you want to fucking defend your boss's Sig Heil?
Ed Niedermeyer
Do you want to. Do you want to. Do you want to have the Cyber truck on your resume as an automotive engineer?
Matt Farah
Yikes.
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean, it was professional and personal reasons.
Matt Farah
No, we thought it looked bad. And then we drove one and it was like, holy shit. I thought it just looked bad. But like, this is terrible.
Zach Clapman
It's funny. Remember that electric scooter showed up for like two days, and the guy that designed. That had also worked on cybertruck, and that scooter fell apart in the first 12 hours and they took it back.
Matt Farah
Did you see that thing? The scooter? It's like. It's a scooter that looks like it matches with a cybertruck design language.
Ed Niedermeyer
Exactly.
Zach Clapman
It's overpriced and it.
Matt Farah
I don't understand. I mean, look, I do, like, little. I don't want to call it micro mobility, but I love scooters and I little like electric scooters and shit like that, but the $10,000 luxury moped that.
Ed Niedermeyer
Was not what was missing from the market.
Matt Farah
I just. There's so many of these things now, and some of them are beautifully made, admittedly, but I rode one that looked like a fucking Norton Commando, but was slower than my Vespa 300 and it cost $10,000. And I was like, who the fuck is this for? That's crazy.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. No, and I mean the Cybertruck. I mean, 2% of their reservations were converted to sales, something like that. 2%, 8 recalls in the first year. And this is the thing that people have to look at.
Matt Farah
Right. 2% is important because we said, people like you and people like me said the lower number on the reservation was a fucking scam to get people to go, oh, fuck it, I'll throw a hundred bucks with that and see if it sticks. And then they could go get a loan and say, we have 2 million reservations for this fucking thing. Knowing full well they'd never convert that many sales. How big was the loan they got from that? Huge. Right?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. I don't know if they were even raising capital at that point, but yeah, I mean, I mean, it certainly pumped the stock. I mean, they were, they. They claimed over a million of them and, you know, they ran out of reservations right when they supposedly hit gross margins. Which means basically, this vehicle has been a money loser. Continues to be. There's no way they're making actual profits on it. I think it's going to be like the Model X. I don't think the Model X has ever made a profit as a program. I don't think the cybertruck ever will unless they, I don't know, get the government to just a couple years worth of production or something.
Matt Farah
Did that pan out? That story of the 400 million-supposed purchase.
Ed Niedermeyer
Of the deal is not done. It would be 400,000 over, like five years.
Matt Farah
400 million, I'm sure.
Ed Niedermeyer
400 million? Yeah. $400 million worth of them over five years, which I don't remember what the unit, like how many units that comes out to it would. It would be helpful to them, but I don't think that alone will fix that.
Matt Farah
It won't. But if they did a little bit here, a little bit here, some maybe.
Ed Niedermeyer
Get the Russians to buy some, maybe.
Matt Farah
You got to buy some. Yeah, you gotta buy some. I saw another story today that was like the. That there was some sort of government employee sort of savings account that they had to buy Tesla stock.
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh, really? Yeah. Well, so the thing with the cybertruck too, it's not just. I mean, it's the biggest flop in the car business that I can remember in my lifetime. I think. I don't know that there's been in terms of having a million pre orders.
Matt Farah
Oh, hype versus. Yeah, well, because who takes pre. No one takes pre orders. Yeah, people, they don't. They just, when they're available to sell, you can order one. Yeah, I don't. This pre order thing started with Tesla.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, well, exactly. And it's because. Right, so with Tesla.
Matt Farah
Am I making that up?
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean functionally. Yeah, like I think other than, I don't know, maybe like, you know, limited edition Ferraris or something like that.
Matt Farah
Maybe a limited edition Ferrari. Yeah, maybe. But, but, but for cars, for regular people, that's not, not a thing.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Well it's because Tesla's always, they've always had the Tesla that's right now which is sometimes matters in terms of the stock price or whatever. But it's always, there's always what's next. Yeah, always. As long as this company's been around, it's always what really matters is what's next. And the problem that they have now, I mean among others, one of the biggest ones, I think people are still just starting to like shoe on a little bit and start to understand is that what the Cybertruck says about their ability to have anything next?
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Because right now we're like the fans and the bulls waiting for them to show some new products, something to like get shit back on track. Right. Get that, those old feelings back.
Matt Farah
Well, if the Cybertruck Optima Optimus robot.
Ed Niedermeyer
Ain'T doing it, there's no, I mean I think even a lot of the fans understand that like that is way, way, way off.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
And it's not going to, they're not going to have that out two people at a time. That's going to make a material difference in what's going on with the stock. So what are they going to do? Right, so they've done the facelifting, but the Cybertruck is their only new product since the model 3Y which, which are essentially the same thing basically. Right. So it's their first all new product in a decade and it's garbage. Like it's just bad. It's poorly conceived. Like the batteries don't make sense. There's all kinds of just really bad things about it. How you look at that and say oh no, no, but like they're gonna come up with something else and like it's gonna be great. Yeah, well what makes you think it's not gonna Be just another cybertruck.
Matt Farah
They need a new, an all new like regular car which is really hard Y. Really hard.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Like a midsize crossover.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Where's their midsize cross?
Matt Farah
Like Jesus. All essentially an all new model Y. Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Or even like a bigger, slightly bigger maybe. Yeah.
Zach Clapman
Like a better Model X.
Ed Niedermeyer
Like a big. Like something with a proper third row.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
That. I mean right. Look at, look, that's what all the. Right. The EV9 and, and everyone's coming out with.
Matt Farah
They essentially made a model of LX that didn't have the Gull winged. It had regular model Y doors and it was essentially a three row model Y. Yep. Maybe they call it the XXY Freak.
Ed Niedermeyer
You know the xxl.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh, that was.
Matt Farah
That's better.
Ed Niedermeyer
Call me Tesla Consulting Services.
Matt Farah
I like that. I think we have a few on the Patreon and we should get to those. Patreon.com the Smoking Tire podcast. You want to ask our guests questions, you want to watch the live stream, you want to get the show before everybody else, you want to get an ad free listing experience and more. Patreon.com the Smoking Tire podcast. Ted Striker says is it. Oh, I think this is maybe sort of. No, not. Ted Striker says is it possible for Tesla to right the ship if they decided to or is it too late?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, I mean, I think it's too late.
Matt Farah
Late.
Ed Niedermeyer
I think it's too late. I think, you know, getting new product to market is. Is going to be hard. They're the idea that when they get new product to market, it's going to be something compelling that's going to get the sort of sense of progress is sort of the iPhone problem. Right. Where it's like you got the iPhone, you can sort of update it. But like what is the new thing that like really brings the energy and.
Matt Farah
Yeah, Apple hasn't sold me a new thing in a very long time that I'm interested in.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep. And the fundamental, the fundamental problem really with Tesla is that it's the strength and the weakness is it's a cult. Right. And we were just talking about, you know, cult in the modern era with the financial incentives in the Internet. We've seen what is possible with that, but we also have seen right. What, what the downside is, which is that the talent leaves, the smart fans leave, the energy just sort of goes because it just becomes all about. About this guy and then the board literally can't stop him from doing the dumbest shit possible all the time.
Matt Farah
Replacement theory.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. So honestly, I'm shocked that the stock is not falling faster just because if you really game out, what could turn this all around? It's really just a binary bet on fsd. So I guess by the end of this year we'll. Well, no next year by the Internet.
Matt Farah
Limited slip when wet says a Model X is one of the few used evs that fits my family. How would you de Musk one? How is that true? How is that true?
Ed Niedermeyer
I don't. I don't know.
Matt Farah
There's other three row EVS.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, there sure are. Like, well, R1S is a three row.
Matt Farah
SUV and that's a fabulous vehicle.
Ed Niedermeyer
Nine.
Matt Farah
EV9.
Ed Niedermeyer
I haven't driven it, but it looks.
Matt Farah
I've been in EV9. It's nice.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Yeah. I would, I would say, yeah, the Model X is like one of the muskiest Tesla can get. So.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
And buying one used. Oh my God, the reliability on the doors and everything. And especially if you don't like Musk, this is the thing that people really need to understand. You can't get a Tesla service anywhere else. You cannot service your Tesla with that. So like people who are like, oh, but mine's old and I bought it before Elon was crazy. And I've got the bumper sticker and all that great, like, I don't want to be an asshole about this, but like, you cannot get your car serviced without putting a dollar in Elon's pocket.
Matt Farah
This is a very important question to ask you. What year Tesla is it? Okay, according.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's a great question.
Matt Farah
At what year does this. Does the bumper sticker no longer become even plausibly true?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
So I mean, 2020 is it?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. I say if you're like, if you want to consider yourself a hater. I feel like 2018. Is that right? That was the pedo guy. That was for me, the thing where it was like, I was like kind of willing to go, you know. But there were people who were like fans who all of a sudden were like defending him, calling the guy a pedophile. And I was like, wait a second, you don't need to be doing this.
Matt Farah
Another guy, someone brought up pedo guy the other day at a press launch I was at and somebody was like, well, you know, it could have meant and actually gamed out the other things. It could have meant just like the people who game out the other things. A sieg heil could mean. It's like at a political rally fucking twice and this guy's supposed to run shit and he's not dumb enough to not Sig Heil twice at a fascist rally.
Zach Clapman
Bannon was like, this is like, a good idea.
Ed Niedermeyer
People just don't need to do this stuff.
Matt Farah
Yeah. It's crazy.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. So 2018, I would say. I would say, you know, if you bought one during the pandemic, you've lost so much money on it that, like, you paid your. What's it, your indulgence.
Matt Farah
So I couldn't even remember the guy's name. And we didn't stop and look at it downstairs. But the car that has been here the longest because we opened in the middle of the pandemic is a Model X. It is a 2020, I guess. Yeah. It came in here with 1700 miles on it in September of 2020. And the guy had fucked off to his other house in Europe.
Ed Niedermeyer
Okay.
Matt Farah
And he's never come back, and the car's never left, and it has just. It was $175,000. And he pays every month his credit card goes through and I don't know, whatever. But, like, this thing has fucking probably burned $1,500 a month in depreciation just sitting there.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. In the least appreciating circumstances. Right. And temperature controlled exactly where you want it. Yeah. This is why. This is why, like, you know, everyone for years has been like, oh, you know, Tesla's, you know, they're just gonna. This is the cutting edge of the future that we're all gonna just live in. And when you. When you dig into the stories of individual tests, I make fun of Alex Roy, my co host on the Atonic cast, all the time about this stuff, because he's like, my Model 3 is the greatest car I've ever owned. I'm like, bro, you own a Citron SM and a Morgan 3 Wheeler. Like, people need to understand this context when you say stuff like that.
Matt Farah
You have the two worst cars ever made.
Ed Niedermeyer
Like, great, amazing cars in their way, but terrible in their own way. So, like, I get it when you say the Model 3 is great, like, now I know what you mean, and I can agree with you. But, like, without that context, people will get the wrong idea.
Matt Farah
Yeah, yeah, he's. I love him, but, like, yeah, he. He buys pun. He buys like. Like sadistic. Yeah, yeah. He buys cars where, like, if he were to call me one day and be like, my car turned into three cars after hitting a pothole, I'd be like, yeah, that sounds right. Yeah. Koji. Koji says ed still got the Z3M coupe.
Ed Niedermeyer
I do. I do.
Matt Farah
Is that the car you drive?
Ed Niedermeyer
Is that your car? Yeah. So I have that and I have a Tacoma.
Matt Farah
Okay. Of course. Portland.
Ed Niedermeyer
Well, and really the vast majority of my driving is to the mountain or to, you know, the desert or somewhere.
Matt Farah
What are we doing on the mountain?
Ed Niedermeyer
I ski. My partner snowboards.
Matt Farah
Oh, Stolberg. Shout out to Stolberg, who has a question. But that reminds me, Stolberg sent us the Taconic distillery sampler section. One of my favorite whiskeys from New York. We got the bourbon, we've got the rye and we've got the maple bourbon. Dessert one. In celebration of the 1000. Shout out to Stolberg, who says, oh yeah, any insight about the story about four Tesla dealers which we need to probably review what that word means, but who said they sold 8,653 cars in three days in Canada?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, so I saw the reporting around that. I'm working on this book on the self driving stuff and organizing protests unfortunately and also putting on a AV event here which I'm here in L. A so I've got a lot of my plate. I'm not really doing day to day reporting on stuff like this right now. So unfortunately I don't have. Thanks for the whiskey. I don't have great insight for you on that. What I will say though is that one of the things that has changed fundamentally is that for the first time we have regulators who don't see their job as sort of going easy on. On Tesla, I think in Canada in particular.
Matt Farah
I think in other countries.
Ed Niedermeyer
In other countries, yeah, yeah, yeah. Critical. So I'm very much looking forward to Canada bringing the smackdown on this stuff and not giving them an inch.
Matt Farah
Europe too maybe.
Ed Niedermeyer
I sure hope so. And boy, do they. Europe probably has a lot of rope to play with there because I do not think Tesla's been really in compliance with the whole type of thing.
Matt Farah
I thought I saw there was a big drop in Norway, but then it kind of came back.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, Europe can be a little spiky because of how they do deliveries, especially because most of them are coming out of China now. And so. But. But no, I mean, I think across the board, I think 30, 40, 56. I think Germany was down like 70%.
Zach Clapman
Germany was done 49% in the first two months of the year. So it's year over year.
Ed Niedermeyer
Okay.
Zach Clapman
Norway down 44% year over year.
Ed Niedermeyer
France was the one that was down like 60% and like was that in January or February?
Zach Clapman
Let me see.
Matt Farah
Okay. I have some of. These are. These are kind of interesting. Okay. I think this one is intended to somehow challenge you. I don't really agree, but Nicecam says. Ed, do you agree with the sentiment that Tesla is no longer simply a car company? I feel Matt and Zach don't understand that much of the stock price upside is heavily weighted on software service Doge and their potential in the humanoid industry. Would you not agree?
Ed Niedermeyer
It says Dojo, not Dogeco.
Matt Farah
Is Dojo different? That was a typo.
Ed Niedermeyer
No, Dojo is their AI training or it's for the self driving training.
Matt Farah
I'm sorry, I thought it was a typo and it was Doge. Okay. Dojo.
Ed Niedermeyer
Dojo. Yeah. No, believe me, it's hard to keep a ruler straight. Look. So yet I agree that as a stock. So Tesla is no longer simply a car company in the sense that it's a stock pump. Right. Like in a lot of ways what Ludacris is about.
Matt Farah
Not in the way that you think.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah. So the stock pump has, has overtaken the company. Right. Obviously there's no, there's no way for the, as a car company to justify the valuation, so. Of course. But, but is any of the stuff that they're doing real? I would say no. Right. It's been eight years since full self driving has been out. It's been padding their, their margins and everything. But they, they aren't delivering on it. It's not. And the thing that I would really urge people to, to understand about the self driving thing too is that like Elon's not even talking about the only thing that matters, which is we take legal liability at a certain point.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's when something becomes self driving. He's not even say, he's not even.
Matt Farah
Like, he's not even implying. Right.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Zach Clapman
And Mercedes did that, didn't they?
Ed Niedermeyer
They did with their L3 system.
Matt Farah
Sort of a couple of asterisks on it too is it's not a full 100%.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's legal responsibility, not necessarily full legal liability. Yeah, there are some lawyerly nuances to that.
Zach Clapman
Sure.
Matt Farah
There is difference.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
But, but on a fundamental level you're sort of broadly saying when this system is active, you know, all things being equal.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
And of course, yeah, it's, it's, we have the responsibility for it. So, so Tesla's not even talking about doing that. So like the idea that it's ever going to be anything more than what it is today is just, there's just no reason to believe that the humanoid stuff is, is frankly absurd. Again, it's, it's, it's the idea that a level 5 autonomous vehicle, like fully self driving, no human input in an unbounded operating domain is like the most ambitious form of that technology. And a humanoid is like one of the few forms of automation, a general purpose humanoid robot.
Matt Farah
It's like beyond that, that's even more ambitious.
Ed Niedermeyer
And it's like. And again, this is really, in a.
Matt Farah
Lot of ways it's so funny to distract you from the failure of the automated car. Yeah, he's, he's fucking waving his other hand over here at the automated robot, which if you think about it for two seconds is so much harder to make than the automated car that they're not even close to.
Ed Niedermeyer
And this is the real again, we're talking about, you know, always having to have something around the corner to aspire to. This is Elon's biggest problem right now. It's not just that the company's failing and you know, they have nothing really to turn it around. It's that there is nowhere else to go. There's no, he's literally, he's in the White House, he's the shadow president. He's promising a race of like mechanical, mechanical slaves that will usher us into a post scarcity like, you know, environment where, you know, like everything is abundant and like, and all that's left is.
Matt Farah
The laws of economics.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's apocalyptic.
Matt Farah
There's nothing left past that.
Zach Clapman
Literally run out of promises because the technology, you know, a lot, a lot of Silicon Valley is built on like we are going to have this tech give us the money and then they get the money and then they make the tech. But the tech is a little more grounded or realistic, possible. There's obviously cases like what's your name? That you know, went sideways? Or this. But with him, he's like, he's promised all this stuff. It's been so long tech hasn't caught up and he's running out of things to say. He's running out of magic tricks and promises. You know, like your kid is going to be disappointed you didn't show up for the baseball game. At a certain point you can't say you're going to and never show up.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, and exactly. It's not promising something and then delivering it eventually or late or whatever. It's promising something and then replacing that with distracting people with another promise and another promise. And each of those promises has been bigger and bigger and bigger. And this is how confidence games work, right? You can't say, forget about that thing that I promised you. Here's a worse promise that doesn't work. It has to always be escalated.
Matt Farah
It's always escalating.
Ed Niedermeyer
And this is the problem is what is he gonna do? It's gotta be like a Gundam suit or something, like an orbital space space station, or maybe it's the golden dome or something. You know what I mean?
Matt Farah
I mean, now he's got the fucking keys to the government, so now he's maybe could, I mean, at least try and promise something on that scale.
Ed Niedermeyer
In theory. But the problem is that where does that leave stockholders in Tesla, then? That's just another distraction.
Zach Clapman
Yeah, because Starlink operates well, but it's a separate thing. SpaceX does a separate thing, but Tesla stockholders, specifically, who are invested in a stock that trades at 12 times the PE ratio of Ford and has no forward promise of revenue. Right now that exists. So unless every car starts driving itself, making the owner's money, and then making Tesla huge amounts of money, they don't have a product that they go, this is going to justify 12 times the ratio that Ford has.
Ed Niedermeyer
And this is the thing about the haters knowing more than the fans is that the haters remember stuff. That's the other thing. The fans can't let themselves remember anything because if they do, it makes it look really bad. Because this is exactly what's happened. People don't remember that, for example, 2012 was the supercharger launch and they said every supercharger will be 100% solar powered and will and will create more power than the cars actually use. Yeah, 2012, yeah. Like this is more than a decade ago.
Matt Farah
It's not. I mean, it's not even anywhere close.
Ed Niedermeyer
I don't think there's one supercharger that does that. And again, people just forget it. People just let this. And again, I think this is also something. In the Internet era, there's something new every day to get excited about. And so you just forget. We're kind of living in this constant eternal now where it's like, dude, I try to.
Matt Farah
I do my best to keep up with things and I'm so overwhelmed with it that I can't possibly. And if you're that kind of like debate bro type of guy that can dance around and take advantage of the fact that the flood of information is so great I can't possibly fucking hit every ball thrown at me. It's important.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's literally why I had to write a book. I mean, it's not fun. I don't enjoy it. It's like the worst thing a person can do to themselves is write A book. But you have to do it because you're absolutely right. Otherwise people don't build up this sense of perspective over time that allows them to see things for what they are. You have to put it all.
Zach Clapman
One advantage of the book focuses on one subject. But we, Matt or myself, for you, anyone who's paying attention to the news, it's every subject. You have to be an expert in all these things and you can't be. And then you can't keep up and you just move on to the next day.
Matt Farah
One more quick one. Let's add actually two more. But Goodwood revives me. I think we addressed it. How did Tesla drop the innovation ball so hard? I think you said the fan. The exodus of talent and support. That's where the innovation actually came from. It wasn't elon and then go up. I think the. Oh, were there a lot more.
Zach Clapman
There's one more.
Matt Farah
Okay, then we'll finish them. Okay, then let's go down because I like Chunehounds as the last one there. Mr. Go for it. If there is a push for U.S. sales of U.S. built automobiles, who will benefit? Will Tesla be one of those that benefit? If foreign built car prices increase due to tariff tariffs, will Tesla be isolated from the price increases?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yes and no. I mean so absolutely I think that, that, you know, it was interesting that Trump sort of, sort of said something about how like, oh, this applies to Tesla too or whatever. But the reality is is that I think what the tariffs are doing is trying to get Tesla back to the one time where its core business actually looked really good, which was during the pandemic when there was a structural undersupply for the first time in auto industry history since World War II. Yeah, essentially. Right. And so, you know, this is the best way they have of sort of recreating. Right. And at least they're not creating another pandemic.
Matt Farah
Yeah, yeah, right. It may, it may negatively affect Tesla. But if it, let's say it negatively affects Tesla 5% and it negatively affects Ford and GM 25%, that's basically a 20% gift to Tesla.
Ed Niedermeyer
It is. The problem is, is that Tesla is tanking anyway.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
You know what I mean? Like people just don't want, want the cars the way that they used to.
Matt Farah
Alex Roy is calling your phone right now. You can put them on speaker next to the mic if you want. Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
Alex Roy, closer. You'll never guess where I am at this moment with Matt Farah at a protest right now. At a protest right now.
Matt Farah
I can't Go to protest. Alex, I have to be objective about the cars. I can't. I can't proactively say that the guy's a fascist. Less on my own podcast where I can. Wait, you.
Ed Niedermeyer
We are literally live right now.
Matt Farah
Alex, you're.
Ed Niedermeyer
You're on the air. You're.
Matt Farah
I just guessed it.
Ed Niedermeyer
You're on the air right now.
Matt Farah
No. Yeah. All right, well, Ed will call you back. All right, bye.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, two more.
Matt Farah
He'll call you in. Two questions. Okay. Was there one.
Ed Niedermeyer
Was there one?
Matt Farah
Down. Out. Zach. Oh, we did the tariff thing.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. Yeah. So look, I just think Tesla. And we'll see, like, Q1 numbers are really critical here, right? Like, we'll see what the Q1 numbers are doing. I think that they're. I think that the brand is toxic. I think, you know, the tariffs can only help so much. That's. That's the funny thing about. About the whole. Him being in the White House. The president can only do so much to help Tesla as a company. It can help Elon. They can create all kinds of other things.
Matt Farah
Ultimately, they can't force people to buy the cars.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, exactly.
Matt Farah
And we're going to end on Choonhound's question, Ed. What is the responsible way of disposing with one's Tesla? Dumping it at a huge loss. And buying a different EV seems exceedingly irresponsible and further pushes the notion that consumer choices can change the world. Spoilers. It can't. Bringing a canvas bag to Whole Foods or getting a different EV won't solve climate change.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's an interesting topic.
Matt Farah
I mean, there's a lot in there.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Both can be true. They're not mutually exclusive. I mean.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. So I think the unique situation here is that, I mean, look, the lesson that consumer. You can't consume your way to a better world like Tesla is the object lesson in that. Right. I mean, a lot of people thought that, and I have a. It's funny, one of my Blue sky posts that I apparently gets passed around on, like, Instagram and stuff is basically like, you know, there's a good chance that driving a gas car for the last five years or whatever would have been less harmful to the planet than supporting Elon Musk. I can't remember how I phrased it, but it was something like that. And I think it's worth thinking about. Like, I don't think people should be, you know, obviously, like, if you want to buy an ev, and if you think that you feel a sense of environmental responsibility, you know, do that don't do. But I think, look, an EV is not going to change the world, but nothing. I think people get hung up on the idea of transformative change. The reality is, is that things change little bits at a time. All any of us can do, like, we're all, you know, constantly bombarded. We've just been talking about this a lot, about all of the shit right in the news and things that are happening and all feel so overwhelming. And like, this is what feels good about going to a protest is like, it's not changing the way. That's not going to fix everything, but it does drive some awareness. It is a little bit. A little thing that I can do to not only feel better for myself, but to help sort of other people understand where I'm coming from and the perspective. I also think the unique thing here, here is. And again, this is what I've been trying to say about this, this whole boycott is that if he weren't as vulnerable as he is, I think the situation looks really different. I think the reason that boycott and divestment is such a cool, like, amazing opportunity right now is because, you know, again, his wealth looks like the Death Star. Tesla is the thermal port. Like it is. The flaw is because it's the only business that actually is a business and it's. And it's failing.
Matt Farah
I think. I think. I think Choonhound's sentiment. Buying an EV doesn't change the world. Using a canvas bag doesn't change the world. I hear you. I hear you. There's systematic problems that go beyond consumer choice. However, your point that at this very specific time in history, dumping one of those specific cars at a financial loss will have an outsized impact compared to any other point with any other consumer product potentially in your lifetime.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's exactly right. Thank you for putting it so, so concisely and clearly.
Matt Farah
I don't know if that was concise.
Ed Niedermeyer
No, no, no, no.
Matt Farah
That was what I get from it. Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
That was a hundred percent.
Matt Farah
You actually can make much more of a difference than you would normally make.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yes.
Matt Farah
By dumping that car at a loss. And publicly.
Ed Niedermeyer
Especially in the United States.
Matt Farah
Yeah. Again, because in China, on cars and bids, no reserve. Let it go.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep.
Matt Farah
Because not only dirty.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. And. And people ask. Right. So one of the things is, is to get like, lease financing. Right. The resale value plays a factor in that. And so if you sell at a loss. Yes. You are taking a loss. You are also that loss is making it harder for Tesla to use lease, to get new lease financing. Which is one of the ways that they're keeping their sales from falling faster.
Matt Farah
And you can mitigate your environmental negligence there by dumping a, quote, perfectly good car by moving it laterally into a used and not buying a brand new one from somewhere else.
Zach Clapman
That's a good idea because asking someone to sell it at a big loss, below market value or whatever, and then spend more money ultimately won't have a huge effect overall. But I think a lateral move is great. But also, you could turn driving into a protest like you every day. Because right now the Tesla cybertruck. Cybertruck and other cars are starting to be seen, I think the same way you see, like a truck with American flag on it. Right, right. I've talked to a lot of friends about this in a lot of different states, and it used to just be a thing. You also. You didn't see it very often.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yep.
Zach Clapman
But now it's like a statement. You probably know where they align politically. And it's not as general as it used to be. It's very specific.
Matt Farah
Yeah. The American flag is, like, used as, like a threatening thing now. Pretty much.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Zach Clapman
It's. I mean, I don't know what the.
Matt Farah
You know, a lot of socialists fall flying the fucking Stars and Stripes right now. Like, I don't.
Zach Clapman
Tesla cars might be seen the same way. And if people are worried about either being seen as supporting him or the agenda, a bumper sticker of some kind is probably more valuable than it's ever been. Because you're. You're saying two people, like, I aligned with the people protesting.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, so. So that's what I say is, at a minimum, like, the more you do to turn your Tesla into a symbol because. Yeah, because that's exactly the point of it is to stigmatize the brain. And so you can drive a Tesla around and have it be an advertisement for stigmatizing the brand. It can be a rolling protest, I would say if you really can't get rid of your car, do that.
Matt Farah
Yeah. You could wrap it or, like, you could fucking change it aesthetically and make it be a protest if you really want to.
Ed Niedermeyer
You could do all kinds of things. Yeah. Make it an art car. You know, you mentioned the dealership thing I've been seeing since there's been so much coverage of these protests that all of the mainstream media call it dealerships. Dealerships, Dealerships. I do worry a little bit that people think that these are like, dealerships and don't understand that. Like. No, like, every time you get your Tesla serviced, that that's Right. And by the way, in Q4, and we'll see, the Q1 numbers are going to be huge. We got like three weeks still to wait for them and they're going to be really important. But in Q4, the only two parts, the auto sales revenue and profit margins were down. The only two parts of the business that were growing were energy generation, which is. And storage and generation. So it's the roofs and the power walls and the power walls and superchargers.
Matt Farah
Oh, right, yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
And then the other one was service. So superchargers and service are two of the only parts of, of the business that are actually growing. From a stock psychology perspective in particular, it's almost more important that we cut service and supercharger revenue than it is, than we cut that we cut sales because that the sales are already taking care of themselves.
Matt Farah
Someone can buy one from their house, they got a show up to somewhere to get it serviced.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's right.
Matt Farah
So you could make that experience unpleasant and inconvenient.
Ed Niedermeyer
A lot of Tesla service centers are already closed on the weekends because of the protest. That's the biggest one of the, that and the White House sales thing. Those are the sorts of things that tell us that we're winning.
Matt Farah
What's more embarrassing, Trump hawking a fucking Model S or the Meme Coin? I guess the Meme Coin's probably more embarrassing because it's just like open ways to bribe the president by buying the Meme Coin.
Zach Clapman
But I think, I think this is worse because he mispronounced the brand name and he was surprised by screens and like he talked about it as if he hadn't seen a car for 30 years, 20 years.
Matt Farah
He probably fucking hasn't.
Zach Clapman
But I mean, he's got, he's been in, you know, Escalades or something. But he was like, wow, screen. Holy shit.
Ed Niedermeyer
Did you know that Trump actually owned a Tesla Roadster?
Zach Clapman
Does he know he owned one?
Ed Niedermeyer
Did he?
Matt Farah
Yeah. Really?
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. He may have forgotten by this point because it was quite a long time time ago, but yeah, he did own a Tesla Roadster at one point. And that's like, okay, I can see Trump owning a Tesla Roadster, but that's like the only Tesla I could see him sort of like opening Dupont, you know, whatever, and being like that one. That's the one. I want one of those. The rest of them again, like, I think, I think it's worth. I think the Meme point is fine because everyone in that, in that, it's not fine. It's not everyone in Everyone in that.
Zach Clapman
World, crypto world, was like, this is bad.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, yeah, no, it's horrible. But, like, it's just something, right? He's a grifter. It's a thing that grifters do. And, like, it fits his brand. The problem with Tesla is that crimes.
Matt Farah
Definitely fit the brand.
Ed Niedermeyer
It just doesn't. Yeah, bribery, corruption, it's all on brand for him. Tesla isn't, though. And he couldn't fake it, you know, and, and like, and like, if you're gonna be. If your thing is being a salesman. Yeah. Like, there are some things that certain salesmen can sell and certain things that you just can. You gotta. There's gotta be that alignment pitch.
Matt Farah
Bad stakes, but not believable when it's bad.
Ed Niedermeyer
Universities, there's a lot of things that Trump can sell really well. Most of them are pretty, like, obviously grifty. But, like, the Tesla thing, he doesn't get the appeal, he doesn't get the.
Zach Clapman
But also, I don't think he benefits financially as much.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Zach Clapman
Like, he benefits from having Elon either be his patsy to cut power out of the, out of the government or whatever, but he's not. Like, there's no direct conduit of, like, if I pitch this Tesla, I get a check.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Zach Clapman
And I think that's why he's like, sure, I'll do. My kid wants me to help him sell candy boxes.
Matt Farah
Gave you $230 million. Now, please help save my sinking company.
Ed Niedermeyer
Well, the other part of this too is that if you know the history. Elon has parachuted into Tesla at the. The last two or three, four weeks at the end of the quarter, like, for years. This is what he does. He spends two months, two and a half months ignoring it. Then he gets his, like, sales report, realizes, oh, shit, like, things are not looking so good. And this is when, you know, the little shell game, the meme machine grinds into life and he makes the magic happen. Well now, right. His. His way of doing it is, is. Is have the president selling them and everything. That. What's important about this, I think, to understand is that, like, that doesn't work for what they're trying to do. Like, I think what they're trying to do of making, you know, Tesla is like the new MAGA thing. I think that they could get there, but it would take a long, sustained marketing, like, real big marketing. Brand shifts like this. It's not just one and done. You don't just jump in two weeks before the end of the quarter, have a press, you know, a Little show in front of the White House and then both of them are just like, boop, done.
Matt Farah
Mess making Republicans like electric cars. That's a fucking campaign, dude. That's not a. You don't do that on a weekend.
Ed Niedermeyer
Especially the sort of people who are like, you know, solid Republicans.
Matt Farah
You need like a Pat Buchanan and a fucking Glenn Beck for that kind of shit or Steve Bannon.
Ed Niedermeyer
You gotta have the codes, the referral codes out to all the right wing media. You gotta have months of that stuff. You know what they're trying to do could be done. The problem is that they're both like kind of ADHD cases I think a little bit. And they both have so many things going on that they're just sort of jumping in and they're so drunk on power too is the real thing is they think that one 20 minute whatever little show in front of the White House that this is like the ultimate power and that this is just gonna fix everything and they're gonna wait another quarter to realize. Oh wait, that's fucking.
Zach Clapman
I want to say very quickly, we should say that we support the nonviolent, non destructive protests at Tesla establishments. We're not. And you're not advocating for the other types.
Ed Niedermeyer
I definitely always take the opportunity to say there is also no relationship between the violence. The FBI said it themselves, it happened individuals randomly, middle of the night. No relationship to the peaceful protest. Like I said, come down even important. Portland, that supposedly was burnt down by Antifa in 2020. You know, most radical extremists. And we're out there dancing, you know, we're doing street theater, we're having. We got bubbles, we got music.
Matt Farah
It's very Portland.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's. There's and there's. And there's. Tesla's just sitting there. In fact, there's like this lot that's right by where we protest, where there's like this like dark corner where they just have like three Teslas kind of totally off from the rest of the dealership. I mean, I don't want to be conspiratorial, but like, like pretty clearly if there was any tendency towards violence among the protesters, like these vehicles seem like they're just sort of hidden away and it would be so easy to vandalize. No one's touched them. No one's touched them.
Zach Clapman
Just watch out for the agent provocateur situation.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah, small.
Matt Farah
A small number of incidents and a large number of protests that are massively covered on media.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. And again, again, there's no. It's not like the protests are turning violent. Yeah, except. Except for when guys try and drive their cars into them.
Zach Clapman
Right. That guy got arrested, Right?
Matt Farah
Thanks, Ed. Yeah, I look forward to coming by the AI conference.
Ed Niedermeyer
I wouldn't even talk about that.
Matt Farah
Well, this is gonna air after it anyway, so we can. I'll talk about it later, how it was. But I can't wait to read your next book. Ludacris is mandatory reading.
Ed Niedermeyer
I can't wait to be done writing it.
Matt Farah
Where? Yeah, right. Where is the best place for you for people to buy Ludicrous?
Ed Niedermeyer
Let's see. I guess Ben Bella. I don't buy it anywhere. Yeah, Ben Bella, Benbella books dot com.
Matt Farah
Ben Bella books dot com.
Ed Niedermeyer
Honestly, buy it anywhere, though.
Matt Farah
Not Amazon.
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean, ideally, not Amazon.
Matt Farah
Yeah, bookshop.org. i fuck with bookshop.org.
Ed Niedermeyer
Oh, Powell. Powell's Portland. Yeah, except that they never have it in stock.
Matt Farah
Find your local indie bookstore and have them order it for you, please. If there's a cat there, even better.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
Yes, our local bookstore has a cat. Its name is Paige.
Ed Niedermeyer
I also, I think I get paid a little bit more on the audiobook, so if you're into that.
Matt Farah
Oh, do you. Did you read it?
Ed Niedermeyer
No, I did not read it.
Matt Farah
Who read it?
Ed Niedermeyer
Someone asked me. I got the choice of three guys. It was like, not that guy. Oh, no, no, no. Not that guy. Oh, no, no. And I ended up going back with the first one. It was a weird. I mean, he's great.
Matt Farah
If I ever write a book, I'm really. I'm springing for, like, the full. More Morgan Freeman. I really. I want this book to sound like gospel.
Ed Niedermeyer
I mean, you have. Maybe you should read my book. I'll.
Matt Farah
I'll happily fucking do someone's audiobook.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah. I feel like you've got a good.
Matt Farah
I could do an audiobook and, like.
Ed Niedermeyer
Budget Seth Rogen, because I know I couldn't. It's okay. Yeah, I don't.
Matt Farah
I agree. I don't think you could either.
Ed Niedermeyer
Yeah.
Matt Farah
I like you on radio. I don't know if I need you to read your book.
Ed Niedermeyer
I can do a conversation, but no one.
Zach Clapman
I feel like if I listen to your audiobook by you, and no offense, like, I would go, did I turn this up to two speed? No, you're still at one. You're a fast talker.
Ed Niedermeyer
I am a fast talker.
Matt Farah
Yeah.
Ed Niedermeyer
That's true.
Matt Farah
Niedermeyer on Bluesky, Niedermeyer Online. Niedermeyer Online on Blue sky and the World Wide Web.
Ed Niedermeyer
It's also my blog.
Matt Farah
Und ze Verdweidweb. And yeah, dude. Thank you for coming by. We really appreciate it. And the podcast, of course, with Alex Roy. Autonocast with our good friend Alex Roy.
Ed Niedermeyer
And Kirsten Korsak.
Matt Farah
And Kirsten. Right. Sorry about that. Thanks, dude. We will see you very soon. Soon. This is a good time.
Ed Niedermeyer
Always so much fun.
Matt Farah
Bye, everybody. Thank you to our patrons asking such good questions today. And we will see you next week.
Summary of "The Smoking Tire" Podcast Episode Featuring Ed Niedermeyer
Podcast Information:
The episode kicks off with Matt Farah welcoming listeners and briefly mentioning promotional content about the "Off the Record" app, which helps contest traffic tickets. However, these sections are quickly bypassed as the focus shifts to introducing guest Ed Niedermeyer.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Ed Niedermeyer [02:09]: "It's so hard to know what the right thing to do in this situation is. I actually chose not to delete my tweets because I want him to train AI on it, because I didn't think of that stuff that calls him out."
The conversation delves into the repercussions of past social media activity, with Matt sharing his experience of losing a commercial gig due to a tweet criticizing Elon Musk. Ed discusses his strategy of maintaining his online presence to influence AI training and public perception.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Matt Farah [03:22]: "I kept the handle because I don't want anybody else to use it, certainly. But every tweet I've ever tweeted is gone."
Ed Niedermeyer [04:47]: "It's a more nuanced kind of evil."
Ed provides an in-depth analysis of the autonomous driving industry, critiquing Tesla's approach compared to competitors like Waymo. He emphasizes the complexity of achieving Level 5 autonomy and the unrealistic expectations set by Tesla's marketing.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Ed Niedermeyer [32:57]: "If you build your mental model around a car, you're going to have a very skewed understanding based on the attributes of not just a car, but a gas car really."
Ed Niedermeyer [34:34]: "The reason that Tesla will never be able to deliver is the same reason that people want to believe in it. Right. It's not technologically plausible, but it's how they've presented it is what people want."
The hosts and Ed critically examine Tesla's business model, highlighting issues like declining stock performance, over-reliance on future promises (e.g., Full Self-Driving), and the misalignment between Tesla's ambitions and actual deliverables.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Ed Niedermeyer [35:16]: "It's that, like, stochastic kind of terror vibe where you just... someone is gonna do some crazy thing, and then you can be like, oh, all I said was."
Ed Niedermeyer [53:23]: "The unique situation here is that... dumping one of those specific cars at a financial loss will have an outsized impact compared to any other point with any other consumer product potentially in your lifetime."
Ed discusses his active role in organizing non-violent, creative protests against Tesla dealerships, aiming to stigmatize the brand and reduce its market influence. The conversation explores effective protest strategies and the potential impact of collective consumer action.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Ed Niedermeyer [45:03]: "How do we make signs that are like as visible as possible with messages that really hit people."
Matt Farah [85:28]: "It's called the Realization. You're like, yeah, yeah, no. And literally, for me, it was just... it makes you realize how much your subconscious brain is doing."
The discussion shifts to environmental concerns, particularly the sustainability of electric vehicles (EVs) and advancements in battery recycling technologies. Ed highlights the necessity of a circular supply chain for EVs to be truly sustainable.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Ed Niedermeyer [27:10]: "We just have so much time to fill in the car."
Matt Farah [26:53]: "I'm interested in that as a topic."
Ed elaborates on why Tesla is unlikely to achieve fully autonomous driving and critiques the company's broader ambitions, such as humanoid robots. He emphasizes the misalignment between Tesla's promises and technological realities.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Ed Niedermeyer [70:29]: "The problem is that when you literally... you have nowhere else to go."
Ed Niedermeyer [73:51]: "It is his meme coin. It's been his meme coin since 2013."
The episode concludes with listener-submitted questions addressing Tesla's market positioning, the impact of tariffs on U.S.-built automobiles, and responsible consumer actions. Ed provides thoughtful responses, reinforcing the episode's themes of strategic boycotting and informed consumerism.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Ed Niedermeyer [82:16]: "By dumping that car at a loss. And publicly... you can make much more of a difference than you would normally make."
Matt Farah [83:55]: "You're saying two people, like, I aligned with the people protesting."
The episode offers a comprehensive critique of Tesla and Elon Musk, intertwining discussions on autonomous vehicle technology, corporate accountability, and the power of consumer activism. Ed Niedermeyer provides actionable insights for listeners to influence the automotive industry and highlights the importance of informed, strategic opposition to drive meaningful change.
Final Notable Quote:
Ed Niedermeyer [84:35]: "So that's what I say is, at a minimum, like, the more you do to turn your Tesla into a symbol because... it's to stigmatize the brand."
Additional Resources:
This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and critical perspectives shared during the episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't listened to it.