Is the 4% Rule In Play? (SB1702)

Summary

The Stacking Benjamins Show: Is the 4% Rule In Play? (SB1702) – Detailed Summary

Release Date: June 30, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Stacking Benjamins Show, hosts Joe Saul-Sehy and OG delve into the evolving landscape of retirement planning, specifically examining the famed 4% rule. Amidst their characteristic humor and friendly banter, they unpack recent developments that challenge long-standing financial guidelines, offering listeners both insights and practical advice.

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Revisiting the 4% Rule

Background of the 4% Rule

The 4% rule, introduced by Bill Bangin in 1994, has been a cornerstone in retirement planning. It suggests that retirees can withdraw 4% of their retirement portfolio annually, adjusted for inflation, with a reasonable expectation that their funds will last for 30 years.

Bangin’s Revision to 4.7%

Recent insights from Bangin have prompted a re-evaluation of this rule. As noted by Joe Saul-Sehy at [09:11], referencing Market Watch, Bangin realized, “he had no idea it would take on a life of its own in scholarly debates, the media and public discourse.” This led to his introduction of a more generous withdrawal rate.

Key Insights from the Hosts

• OG’s Perspective ([09:59]): OG emphasizes the importance of the margin of safety, explaining, “if you're, if you've got a million bucks and 40,000 is your number and if you spend 38 5, you're living destitute...if you have $4 million...you have a lot more margin of safety to play with.”

• Clarifying the 4% Rule ([10:39] Joe): Joe breaks down the rule for listeners, stating, “if you had a million dollars in year one, you took 40,000 in year two, you took 40,000 plus inflation in year three...should be fine.”

• Shift to a 4.7% Rule ([13:44] Joe & [14:01] OG): The hosts discuss Bangin’s "aha moment," leading to a revised rule of 4.7%, which OG humorously notes as “much easier” than complex calculations.

Evolution of Investment Assumptions ([12:08] OG): OG highlights that Bangin’s original assumptions—primarily a stock-bond mix with specific return rates—have been updated to include a broader array of asset classes. This diversification has enabled a higher, more sustainable withdrawal rate.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Saul-Sehy: “It's not even frankly a rule as much as just starting post.”
• OG: “It's almost 20% more from a cash flow standpoint.”

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Understanding Sequence of Returns Risk

Definition and Importance ([33:18] Joe & [34:20] OG):

Sequence of returns risk refers to the danger that the order of your investment returns—especially early in retirement—can negatively impact the longevity of your portfolio. The hosts explain that poor returns in the initial years of retirement can significantly deplete assets, making it harder for the portfolio to recover.

Listener Question: Tony’s Inquiry ([31:18] Joe & [32:26] Doug):

A listener named Tony poses a humorous yet insightful question linking workout routines to retirement planning, highlighting the confusion around financial terminology.

Hosts’ Explanation ([35:43] Doug & [36:45] Joe):

• OG’s Breakdown ([37:00] OG): OG illustrates the concept with relatable examples, emphasizing the importance of having a cash reserve to mitigate the impact of market downturns. “You have to put some parameters around this because you have to know what kind of average market ups and downs are going to look like.”

• Practical Strategies ([38:21] Joe): Joe suggests maintaining a separate cash account to avoid selling investments at depressed prices during market lows.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Saul-Sehy: “Sequence of returns risk has to do with the ratio of your distribution, your portfolio value when you start.”
• OG: “So you’re not forced to sell those securities at a lower price. You just wait it out.”

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Listener Interaction: "Good Call Saul"

Caller Tony’s Question ([31:17] Doug & [32:31] Doug):

Tony humorously intertwines fitness jargon with financial terminology, asking why sequence of returns risk is a concern early in retirement but not later. The hosts adeptly navigate his metaphor, transforming his workout routine confusion into a meaningful financial discussion.

Hosts’ Response ([33:18] OG & [34:20] Joe):

They clarify that sequence of returns risk primarily affects the early stages of retirement because the same percentage downturn has a more substantial impact when the portfolio is just beginning to be drawn down.

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Second Half Segments

Trivia: Mike Tyson’s Bite ([27:31] OG & [29:02] Doug):

Doug shares a trivia segment about Mike Tyson famously biting off an opponent’s ear in 1997, humorously linking it to financial lessons about not overextending withdrawals.

TikTok Minute: Coffee vs. Green Tea ([30:07] Joe & [30:37] Doug):

The hosts critique a TikTok hack suggesting replacing morning coffee with green tea to lose up to “87% of the joint,” leading to a playful debate on the authenticity and practicality of the advice.

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Discussion on Previous Episodes: Food Waste

Recalling the Brian Sutt Episode ([42:05] Doug & [43:16] Joe):

They recap a previous episode featuring Brian Sutt and Len Penzo, focusing on strategies to reduce food waste. The hosts mention practical tips like labeling leftovers with masking tape to track freshness, which can save listeners significant amounts annually.

Listener Feedback ([43:37] OG & [44:15] Joe):

Listeners like James and Lynn share their experiences implementing these strategies, highlighting community engagement and the practical benefits of reducing food waste.

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Key Takeaways

1. Reevaluation of the 4% Rule:

   • Bill Bangin has revised his original 4% rule to a more generous 4.7%, considering extended retirement periods and diversified asset classes.
   • This adjustment allows retirees to withdraw more annually while maintaining portfolio longevity.

2. Managing Sequence of Returns Risk:

   • Early retirement years are critical; poor market performance can drastically affect long-term finances.
   • Maintaining a cash reserve and having predefined guardrails can mitigate these risks.

3. Personalized Financial Planning:

   • Rules of thumb should serve as starting points, not rigid guidelines.
   • Retirees should tailor their withdrawal strategies based on individual circumstances, market conditions, and lifespan expectations.

4. Community and Practical Advice:

   • Engaging with the community through listener questions and feedback enriches the financial planning experience.
   • Practical tips, like reducing food waste, can lead to substantial financial savings.

Notable Final Quotes:

• Doug: “If you throw away 30% of your food, you have other priorities and haven't made this a priority.”
• Joe Saul-Sehy: “If you start off with your own financial plan... use the 5 1/2% rule for you now.”

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Conclusion

In this insightful episode, The Stacking Benjamins Show challenges conventional wisdom surrounding the 4% rule, presenting a nuanced perspective that accommodates today's economic realities. Through engaging discussions, listener interactions, and practical advice, Joe and OG empower their audience to make informed and personalized retirement planning decisions.

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For more financial insights and to join the conversation, visit StackingBenjamins.com and subscribe to their newsletter at StackingBenjamins.com201.

Transcript

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[OG]

I think you're on mute.

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[OG]

I think you're on mute.

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[Joe Saul-Sehy]

LinkedIn knows how it's Monday and you know what that means. Happy non specific time of day to everyone. Glad you're here. We had a conversation about robust Awkward.

[OG]

Nope, nope.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Probably not going to talk about it. No, we didn't have a conversation about anything else. Yeah, we didn't do anything. You know we did have a conversation about though was how much our troops mean to us and how they kept us safe all weekend while we were doing the non specific thing that we are probably not going to talk about. So on behalf everybody raise your mugs no matter where you're at. Come on. Unless you're driving your car, they're both hands on the wheel. On behalf of the men and women make a podcast in Mom's basement. And the men and women at Navy Federal Credit Union who serve our troops and our veterans. Here's to those people who kept us safe and will continue to do so. Thank you so much. Let's go stack some Benjamins now this week, shall we?

[Doug]

Thanks everybody.

[OG]

Let's get it. The English contribution to world cuisine, the chip. What do the English usually eat with chips to make them more interesting?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Wait a moment.

[OG]

It's fish, isn't it?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Here boy.

[OG]

Down the hatch. Ew. Avoid the green ones.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

They're not ripe yet.

[Doug]

Live from Joe's mom's basement, it's the Stacking Benjamin Show. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug, and have you been using rules of thumb for your budget and long range planning? Well, bad news stackers. The creator of one of those rules says it's outdated and often used incorrectly. Which rule of thumb we'll share today. And also Help you replace it with a better strategy. Plus, we'll answer a question from one stacker who thought, you know, I'd better call Saul.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

See? Hi.

[Doug]

And OG Tony wonders about sequence of returns, risk and his workout routine. You've called the right guys, Tony. You gotta hear the question to understand it's a doozy. And we'll also jab and uppercut with a TikTok minute and a round of my trivia so good it'll make your head spin. And now two guys who know that market volatility is just a Wall street nerd's version of a roller coaster. It's Joe and. Oh, Jaja.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Jaja G. It's summer time for theme parks, but not with your money. Welcome to the Stacky Benjamin show. Super happy you're here. I am Joe, Saul Sehi. We are locked and ready to go for another fun week of podcasting. Even though it's summer hours in the basement. I mean, we are. Everybody's juggling.

[Doug]

None of us are actually here.

[OG]

Amazing what AI can do these days.

[Doug]

This is all a figment of our imagination.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Every summer it's like, can you record today? No, I can't record. Can you record it? No, I can't record. No, I can't record. So we are doing this at some undisclosed time in the. In the past. So if something big happened in the world markets today. I don't think so.

[OG]

In the last month?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

No, I don't think. No.

[Doug]

No, probably.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

No, no big deal.

[Doug]

Everybody takes the summer off.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

These other voices you heard, you heard the voice of Doug earlier. How are you, man?

[Doug]

Fantabulous, Joe.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Fantastic. And Mr. OG is here. How are you, buddy?

[OG]

I have nowhere near that level of energy, but I'm also present.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, guess what? You are going to have energy because I know how much you like me, despise just using rando rules of thumb for your financial plan.

[OG]

I think I know what this is about. Actually, I kind of like this one.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Those rules that don't fit anybody. Yeah, you. You're the one that sent this to me and I thought, yes, that works.

[Doug]

Imagine there's a good chance you might know what we're going to talk about.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, different than the other 50 that I reject from OG this one actually made me.

[Doug]

I've been on a roll lately. I've been feeding the machine for the last few months. I've been displaced, usurped by OG I.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Don'T know how you got so many in a row.

[OG]

I only usually send stuff about bonobo monkeys. They always get Turned down.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That's the important. Really the important stuff. You know what else is important is that we keep this free for all of you stackers. So sit back for a couple minutes because we're going to hear from a couple of those brands that make sure we can keep on keeping on. You don't pay a penny for any of this. And after them, we are diving into rules of thumb. And one that the creator goes, my bad. He doesn't really say my bad. He's like, might be a little different than we thought.

[Doug]

You know, Joe, since it is summertime and everybody travels a lot in the summertime, would it be okay if we sent our listeners on a guilt trip?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

On a guilt trip? Why?

[Doug]

Because I know some of them are skipping past the ads.

[OG]

Oh.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh.

[Doug]

I mean, come on, people. We do this three times a week. We're putting entertainment in your ear holes. You can't listen to, like, 90 seconds worth of ads just to help keep that coming.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

These brands that support us. So you don't have to pay anything.

[Doug]

Yes, yes.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And they're good brands. They are.

[Doug]

We have to prove we're not charging you baggage fees.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, yeah. There is, as an aside, somebody said that they heard, like, some holiday stuff in the middle of summer. There is a second level of advertisements that we don't have as much. We have some, but not as much control over. And that must have been what happened, because I don't know what was going on with them playing Silent Night or whatever in the middle of June.

[Doug]

I think they thought that one of the. It was during our international episode, and they thought that one of the international songs was to the tune of a Christmas song. That's what I presumed they meant.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Man, it was great getting all that. Steve getting his groove on over there during international week. All right, let's hear from these guys. And then we are talking rules of thumb. I know personally that debt isn't just about money. It's about stress and sleepless nights and that constant weight on your shoulders. It can affect your relationships. It can shred your confidence. Truly. It can overshadow your whole life. So know that if you've ever felt any of that, you're not alone. There are millions of Americans struggling with debt. But there's a solution that can help. Beyond Finance was founded with a simple mission. To help those struggling with overwhelming debt find a pathway to financial freedom. They can help you escape that endless cycle of making just minimum payments. Typical Beyond Finance clients see their payments on enrolled debt lowered by 40% or more. So you can expect immediate relief and the chance to start saving. The team prioritizes a hands on compassionate approach coupled with a focus on helping you get out of debt as soon as possible, save money and establish long term financial well being. They offer personalized 24. 7 support and financial wellness sessions with accredited financial therapist and you know you're in good hands with a trust pilot rating of 4.6 out of 5 stars. So if you're ready to take that first step or learn more about achieving financial wellness, visit Beyond Finance Visit. Not available in all states. Fees vary by state. Results may vary.

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[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Today's headline comes to us from Market Watch. This is written by the Jessica Hull, the as if I know Jessica hall, but we've, we've used Jessica's stuff before and she writes great stuff, including this. She says when Bill Bangin introduced the 4% rule way back in 1994, he had no idea it would take on a life of its own in scholarly debates, the media and public discourse. Now, after having what he calls an aha moment about three years ago, he's revised his trademark rule to be more generous. In fact, even before we get into that og, you know, he has said, I've heard him in other interviews saying the 4% rule has been used way more widely than he thought that it would. As an example, not anywhere near appropriate for people doing the fire movement stuff if you're going to retire for a very long period of time, you know, 4% is not your number.

[OG]

Well, it's all about margin of safety and it really just depends on how close you are to being able to to pull that off. I mean, if you're, if you've got a million bucks and 40,000 is your number and if you spend 38 5, you're living destitute. And if you know and, but you only have a million, like you're gonna have to manage that a lot closer to what's really happening in the markets versus if you have $4 million and your spend is 80,000. If it's 80 if it's 90, if it's 125, if one year it's 200, you have a lot more margin of safety to play with than if your lips are just above water when you get to retirement.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, and let's. I just realized too, og, we should define exactly what we're talking about. You alluded to most of it, but let's just be right down Main street clear. What the hell does a 4% rule mean anyway? Like, 4% of what? Doing what? Huh?

[OG]

Well, what he said in his article in the early 90s in the Journal of Financial Planning was if you retired and you withdrew 4% of the balance every year plus inflation. So if you had a million dollars in year one, you took 40,000 in year two, you took 40,000 plus inflation in year three, you took that number plus inflation that you have a reasonable expectation that your money will last 30 years. And he looked over, this was written in the 1990s. So the history of the investing world ended in 1994 when he wrote it. Now since then there's been another 31 years of investing history, which has helped. But his whole thesis was the average retirement for a two person retirement is 25 years at the time. If you retire when you're 65, one of those people live to be 90 generally, what's the likelihood of you not outliving your money? And if you kept it at 4% plus inflation, you should be fine. Of course, what he's finding, what he talks about here is it might be a little too conservative, actually.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah. Which is going to be great news for everybody. But before we get there, what's his assumption on the 4% rule that your portfolio is going to be. Is it like 60% stocks, 40% bonds? I remember it was fairly conservative.

[OG]

Yeah, that's a good question. It's basically assuming somewhere between 50, 50 and 75, 25, if you're thinking about stock bond allocation and really kind of assuming from an investment return perspective, about 7% for stocks after inflation, 2 to 3% of fixed income returns after inflation, and then like I said, adding inflation for those distributions, and that number that they used was 3%. So assuming a 3% inflation rate over time. So anytime that you end up with more or less of those things. Right. If you have higher inflation, then you're going to have some issues. Or if you have higher or lower investment returns over long periods of time, you're going to have some issues.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah. And the reason why for me, the 4% rule is not so much a Rule as kind of a starting guideline is because some people are going to need higher returns in their portfolio, some people can afford to be more conservative. Some people are looking at retiring for a longer period of time. Some people are working or have other avenues of income, so they don't need to tap it as much. So 4% is not even frankly a rule as much as just starting post. I think for, for a lot of people. Here's how it's changed. Bangin says, I remember it so clearly. I was sitting at this very desk I'm at now. I said to myself, wait a minute, I've been putting stock returns first. What if I put inflation as the most important thing? Well, the minute I did that, it fell together. Years of failure just evaporated in just a few minutes. It was one of the most remarkable moments of my life. Bengan said that moment was the birth of a new, more generous 4.7% rule. So now he's looking, oh, gee, rolls.

[OG]

Right off the tongue, doesn't it?

[Doug]

That's not going to sell a lot of books.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

The old four points.

[OG]

The math is so easy. Who wants to be able to just take your portfolio and multiply by 25 or your income, multiply by 25 or your portfolio and divide by 25 or multiply by 4%? No, no, no, no, no. This is much easier.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And now Doug's learning while the average person has four and a half kids. And mom calls Doug the old half.

[Doug]

Yeah, exactly. I'm 0.7 on a good day.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, the good news is, though, if you've got a million dollars saved, right, you've done a decent job of saving for retirement, OG or better than a lot of people. And you used to think you could withdraw $40,000 a year. I mean, that's that that 7,47,000 is materially different than 40,000. That's a big difference.

[OG]

It really is. It's almost 20% more from a cash flow standpoint. And the real answer is, obviously it's going to be dependent on what's really going on in the markets and with your portfolio. I think the other thing that that helped with this was, like I said before, first all the other data was ending in the 1990s. And now we have another 30 years worth of market data, another 30 years of international investing data, another 30 years of inflationary data. You know, it's just helping to build the model. Now we have 100 years of reliable market data. And then I think one of the other points was he started adding different asset Classes before.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I want to jump into that next. You're going right where I'm headed.

[OG]

Yeah, it was just a generic stock bond mix. And now he's saying, well, wait a second, we know that different asset classes perform differently and if we add that layer of diversification, does that help?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, this is wild. He jumped into not just large company stocks, but mid caps, small caps, micro caps, international stocks, intermediate term US government bonds and treasury bills. And that's what lifted a 4.7. So then he kept fiddling, it said, and he found he added even more asset classes. Gold, commodities, real estate, emerging markets. Guess what happened then? It didn't matter. It did. It didn't make much of a difference. Which is why it's funny. OG like people think, you know, we've had this question before, right? I got to get more esoteric, I got to get more funky. I gotta, there's something in here that I gotta do. When he went from the straightforward classic all time asset classes to funkier, weirder stuff that's on the edge, didn't change the outcome much.

[OG]

Yeah, I mean there's a diminishing return, Right. You have to assume that there's some benefit to diversification. This is the Paul Merriman thing. And I think layering these two things together make a lot of sense. If you say, well, I'm only going to invest in the S and P, like you're going to do great, that's fantastic. But if you add a little bit of value to your portfolio, you do a little bit better. But if you add a little bit of small companies to it, you do a little bit better. But if you add a little bit of small company value, you do a little bit better. But if you add a little international, you do a little bit better. When you look at those things individually, you say, la di da. What's. We're joking. We say, well, what's the difference between 4% and 4.7 in the grand scheme of things?

[Doug]

A lot.

[OG]

Well, hey, it's 20. It's almost 20% more a year multiplied by 30 years of distribution. Like it's a big number. That 1% is a huge, A lot more living. It's a big difference, especially for people that are on the fringe. And I think, and by fringe I mean like you, you've saved just enough to make it work. Like the math just works for you. And I think really what this goes to prove, I think more than anything is that it's not going to be a set it and forget it thing. You can't you can do this, right? Like, you could say, I'm going to retire. I have a million dollars. I'm going to take $40,000 a year, every year. I'm going to check what the CPI says is inflation. I'm going to add my distribution, plus a little inflation. That's going to be what I live on. I'm going to budget my life to that. I'm going to get a little Social Security, maybe a little pension. That's my life. But the risk that you run, and this is what he kind of alludes to, is that you die with 3 million bucks. You live. You have some life unlived that you could have done, Given away, donated the enjoyed, done whatever, blown on Ferraris, who cares? Like, you could have done something with that money. Instead, you know, now you've got this extra that you don't necessarily need to have extra for.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah. You saved it for a rainy day that was never going to happen.

[OG]

Yeah. And once you get past that and the example that I think about here, and especially as we're in the summertime is, you know, people go to the beach. You guys have been to the beach. You know, I'm thinking about, like the ocean beach, not, you know, Doug's little lake beach thing that he calls a beach.

[Doug]

Lake Michigan.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Is that a lake or a large pond?

[OG]

I'm talking about the one in your backyard, the one that you fill with water every so often. You're like, look, guys, I've got a lake. We're like, it's just a puddle, but okay.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Right? He's got the rubber duckies in there with him.

[OG]

He's got a little boat. He floats his little boat in there. He's like, it's got boating on it.

[Doug]

You guys having fun? Is this good for you? Enjoying this?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It's very good.

[Doug]

Okay.

[OG]

Actually, I could go on for a little bit on this. I feel. I feel like there's a little bit more to unpack. There's some mommy issues in there somewhere. But anyways, it always circles back to Doug's mom somehow. But anyway, so you think about being at the beach and you're standing there and you guys have all done this. We've all done it. Where you get in the water. You're in the water up to your waist and douche. You get hit by a wave, right? And it's kind of fun because your back's to it, or maybe you don't know it's coming and boosh, you get knocked over. And that's a. Whatever. Two Foot wave or something, right? You just get your ass kicked. You're just standing there. But if you go out, you swim out a little bit further, just a little bit maybe to where the ropes are, it's a little deeper, so you got to tread some water or you on those little floaty things, those are the same waves. It's the same waves, just. But since you're out a little bit further, it's a little bit smoother of an experience. The same thing is true with your money. If you're just right at the buzzer with money like, I got a million bucks and I can spend 40,000, every time a wave hits you, it's going to, you know. But if all of a sudden that million through maybe luck, if you invest it correctly or good timing, just sheer fortune now, that million is now a million five, and you're still living on 40, 45. You're out past the surf zone. You're not getting your face kicked in anymore. That's the difference, I think, between that 4 and 4.7. You have the ability to adjust your cash flow to what's going on in real life, and you can adjust it upward. I think is the moral of this story, is that people are probably a little more conservative than they need to be, but you have to be okay with adjusting it. You can't pin it at five and go, well, Will, he says, I can do four and a half, so I'm going to do five.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

My buddy Will yolo.

[OG]

You could start with five. I think that'd be fine. But you have to be okay with dropping it down to four if there's circumstances that affect it. Right? There's high inflation or low investment returns for a period of time. You have to be able to float between those. And that kind of gets into that guardrail type thing that we see more and more of now, as opposed to just a straight line of.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

What do you mean, guardrails? You got these limits on either side and you're just going to.

[OG]

If you hit the portfolio does this, then I have a little bit more flexibility on this side. If, if the market portfolio does this, then I got to tighten a little bit. Kind of like what you talked about with Paul Merriman's example of we either go to Europe for a vacation or we go to Seattle for a vacation.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Stay in the Pacific Northwest where he.

[OG]

Lives, it's still vacation. But sometimes I'm. You can cross all, sometimes I'm not.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That's also ogy. I just don't like starting here at all like, people like, okay, what's my safest withdrawal rate? Well, to your point, if we swim all the way to the edge and we're gonna, we're gonna get knocked around, we're gonna worry all the time. So if I'm ringing every dollar out of my retirement, that's bad. Don't get me wrong. I like this as a mental exercise. I like doing the math and going, am I gonna be okay? Is that fine?

[OG]

So figuring out what's your starting point?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, figuring out what that number could be. Well, I actually think it's number two. Yeah. If you're just, you know, you got 20 minutes to kill. You want to do some back of the envelope stuff. But truly for me, the place to start is what brings me joy. What are the things I want to do in addition to my base living expenses and can I make that work? Is that below 4.7? If it's below 4.7, then great. If it's right at 4.7. I actually do OG have more good news from banging because he says, although you can call it a 4% rule, it's for ultra conservative people. If they wanted it to be at the safest it's ever been in history. He said for most people, they'll end up with a lot of money and probably a lot of regrets if you stop at 4.7. He's actually even saying, oh, gee, that you can go even higher than that. So he looked at if you stopped working in October 1968, which during the modern era has been the worst period of the stock market. In fact, we. We did a whole long great look at the history of the stock market on a roundtable recently. I'll link to that in the show notes because what a fun episode if you missed it just going back through all of these different spots. So if somebody stopped working at one of these absolutely horrible spots, then you faced a bear market and high inflation and you wanted to not outlive your money for 30 years. 4.7 was your lowest safety, or excuse me, was. Yeah, the lowest amount. Somebody took out and barely made it. Meaning 4.7%. Is his ultra conservative safe withdrawal still conservative.

[Doug]

Even that's conservative. You could go higher. Most people could go higher.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

He says given today's financial environment, he sees inflation is fairly reasonable, but stock market valuations is very high. He advises in this economy, a retiree stopping work today. In this economy, anybody who stops working today withdraw between five and a quarter percent to 5.5. Which means, guys, that if you save that same million dollars, guys we've been talking about. He's now taken 40,000 to 47,000 if you want to be ultra, ultra, ultra, ultra conservative. But his real numbers are 52,500 or 55,000. Oh, gee. He's looking at somebody starting today taking out $15,000 more than he was saying just a few years ago. Yeah, this is phenomenal news for a lot of people. And by the way, that's 30 years if you're looking longer than that. He still cautions people, you're playing a different game if you're trying to make your money last 40, 50 years.

[OG]

Yeah, I mean, ultimately this is where you have to build your own retirement plan about what's going on in your own world. Because at the end of the day, those are wildly different numbers, right? 40,000, 55,000 and everywhere in between. That's a material difference in experience, in, in life, whatever that looks like.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

The next line here, guys, just cracks me up. He says we're nowhere near the dire economic straits we saw in 1970s which caused that 4.7% rule. I hope I never see it again. Those were awful times. But he's saying if you want to be ultra, ultra conservative. 7. Begin says he knows people will pick apart the new rule of thumb. His original 4% rule prompted a death threat. He said, who threatens to kill somebody who's doing math? I hate math.

[Doug]

Here's here. I'm going to be contrarian here, or at least the, the voice of reason. I think we all need to be really suspicious of old Bill Bangin because I mean, you didn't hear from him for so long. I think he needed to make himself relevant again. I think he just needed to sell some more books, get on a few more interviews, MSNBC or something like, how can I, what can I do to really spice things up?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I'm feeling a little lonely. He said, this is back pocket. The whole time he's like, oh, wait.

[Doug]

For the next wait, I got a long term plan. You think Salman Rushdie is under death threats? I'm going to light it up with this 4.7 thing.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I'm finally going to get Good Morning America with this one. It's about time. I can't wait. I want to be in the grocery store and people go, wait, are you Bill banging? Yeah. He says he followed his own advice, by the way, when you retired in 2013, his research called for four and a half as a worst case scenario. And he says, turns out it could have taken out more. So good stuff. We will link to this. Again, not the place to start, but certainly I think whenever you use a rule of thumb, you're asking for it. Start off with your own financial plan. We're going to dive more into good financial planning basics like we do every week on the 201. That's our newsletter that also comes free to you. Kevin Bailey curates the Best of the Best. It's generally around the same topics that we're exploring that week on the podcast. Always free once a week. Stacking Benjamins.com201 gets you subscribe. Of course, that also is the way that we keep in touch whenever we go around the country and we've got special stuff going on or YouTube event, whatever it might be. So stacking Benjamins.com201 coming up in the second half of this, we've got the tick tock minute. We gotta we got a great, great call from a stacker. But before that, bada boom, bada bing. Doug's got today's trivia.

[Doug]

It's the reason everybody's here. Joe hey stackers. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug. And just imagine you retire using the 4% rule, only to find out too late that you could have sprung for that second round of drinks at that really expensive place you splurged on. Luckily, you were listening to today's show, huh? Crisis averted. Feel free to walk into a bar here in Texarkana and scream, next round's on me. Just give us some heads up before you do that. Seriously, I'm not sure which would be more painful, not enjoying the money I'd saved up my whole life or having my ear bitten off. That's what happened to one victim of today's birthday boy, Mike Tyson. Tyson made tons of Benjamins over his career, but apparently couldn't afford dinner because in the boxing ring back in 1997, Mike Mighty Mike bit the ear off of what boxer. I'll be back right after I try to figure out whether Jumbo shrimp start off big and then shrink or is it the other way around?

[OG]

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[Doug]

You know that feeling when someone shows.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

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[Doug]

Hey there, Stackers. I'm Jumbo shrimp lover and the guy who's always wondering if it's Istanbul or Constantinople. Joe's mom's favorite duck. Mike Tyson apparently showed up hungry to the boxing ring in 1997 when he bit off the ear of another famous fighter. While Iron Mike's payday was huge, given that it was the first pay per view fight to gross over $100 million, apparently one of the greatest boxers of all time still thought that wasn't enough to buy dinner. What fighter was Tyson's appetizer?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, my God.

[Doug]

That's just funny.

[OG]

Yum.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You know what I need?

[Doug]

Like, I'd, I'd like to be walking to the fridge right now, but I got this guy standing in front of me. Oh, look.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Goodbye, two birds.

[Doug]

Who needs to wait for the end of the round in that bell to ring? If you said Evander Holyfield, you'd be correct. And now two guys who've taken off the gloves and they're ready for your question. It's back to Joe and OG.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

All right, time for our second half segments. Would like to lead off today with our Tik Tok minute. This is the part of the show we would shine a light on. A Tik Tok creator who's either making some brilliance or making something that may be air quotes. Brilliant. Which one, Doug, you think we got today?

[Doug]

I think this one's a scientific breakthrough. I mean, this one will change the world. I'm fairly certain.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Very well could be. We've got quite a hack here. This hack was sent to us from Rachel.

[Doug]

Here's a fun fact, and I just.

[OG]

Learned this, but if you replace your morning coffee with green tea, you can lose.

[Doug]

And I think it's up to 87%.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Of what little joy you had left. Told you there's a rule of thumb. If you replace your coffee with tea, you get rid of 87% of the joint.

[Doug]

Green tea. Green tea just sucks.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You don't like it?

[Doug]

Oh, it's so bad.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I like it maybe twice a year. And then I'm like, why am I drinking this when I could have just had.

[Doug]

Yeah, I'm drinking a geranium or something. It's just not. No.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Thanks to Rachel. Talking about, you know what? Maybe that coffee addiction that you pay for is very well worth it so you don't have to do the tea.

[OG]

Sanity.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yes, that's right. Time to move on to our real second half segment, which is somebody said a better call Saul. See, I n o G, this is where we help a stacker in need. And if you have a question for us, you just head to stacking benjamins.com voicemail and you can be as cool as Tony is. Tony has this question for us, guys.

[F]

Hey, Joe. OG and Doug. Longtime listener, first time caller. Now, I heard Doug talking about sequence of return risk. So I started doing all my workouts backward, cool down first, then cardio, then weights. Figured I'd ease into it. I won't blow out my retirement muscles too soon. Then I heard OG say I need to keep some dry powder. So I panicked. Bought a 50 pound tub of whey protein and stuffed it in the pantry next to my emergency pop tarts. Just waiting for the crash. Don't know which one, Market or Spinal. Then Joe said, I only have to worry about this early in retirement. That's where I'm stuck. Why don't I have to worry about throwing my back out later? Like, if I deadlift wrong at 75, I'm still down for the count, right? All right, thanks, guys. Now I'll hang up and listen.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Tony, that is the question of 2025, my friend.

[Doug]

Yeah.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Right.

[Doug]

Now, everybody, Tony's winning. If you think you can top that, good luck, bring it. But Tony is on top of the heap right now.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That was good. And way to frame a popular question, which I know a lot of people have, OG which is, you know, sequence of returns, right? So sequence of returns risk is this risk that you retire on the unluckiest day ever. And this is what Bill Bangin talking about earlier with this 1968. And then we go through the 60s and 70s. Why does sequence of return risk in the CFP world matter at the beginning of retirement? And yet they say that later in retirement, you know, you can notch your Your numbers back up, your withdrawal rate back up because it's less of a risk if you blow your, blow your back out, AKA blow your savings later. Isn't it the same as blowing your savings sooner?

[OG]

Well, I think it has to do with a number of things. Firstly, the sequence of returns risk I think is largely overblown in terms of the likelihood of it happening. If you just look at market declines throughout history, yeah, it happens and it happens every five years pretty reliably on average. But that means that four years it doesn't happen. You know, 80% of the time you're probably okay. But we want to protect against the unlikely, you know, one off event. And what we're talking about here is the person who retired on January 1st of 2008, let's say, and they have a million bucks and they're like, cool, I'm going to spend $40,000. I read I can do 4%. That's what some smart guy said. My planner signed off on that. I'm going to spend my 40 grand. I'll call you in a year. And so on January 2nd they take out their 40,000. Now they have 960 and they go live their life and they don't pay attention to anything that's going on. And they wake up on January 2nd of the next year and call their investment firm and say, I need my 40,000. How much is left? It's back to a million, right? Because I got my market returns like well actually this year kind of sucked. Like, oh, okay, it sucks, so be it. What am I at? And they go, oh, you're at like 6:10. Oh, and do you want your 40,000? No problem. Here's your 40. Now you're down to 570. And in two years your retirement portfolio got cut in half almost because of just being unlucky. And the guy that retired on January 1st of 2008. Now if you're the person who retires January 1st of, let's say 2013 instead, and you have your million dollars, you take out your 40, your 960 turns into 1.1, and then you take out your 41 and your 1,050,000 turns into 1.3. And so you get so far out of the realm of that market volatility impacting you, assuming that your cash flow remains constant, right, just the normal increase with inflation, then the market declines don't affect you anymore. It's no different than somebody who retires with $2 million and spends 40k versus somebody who retires with a million and spends 40k. If you have 2 million and you're spending 40, you have no sequence of returns risk because the market could get cut in half and you'd still be fine. And it's not going to get cut in half all at one time. And even if it does, it's going to recover and you're still going to be okay. You know what I mean? So it's a combination of taking the portfolio distributions and also relative to how much money you have overall compared to that portfolio distribution.

[Doug]

Right.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I mean, this gets a little morbid. OG But I think to your point, it is partly the fact that we need this money to last for 30 years. And if this, if the bad sequence happens and you're 20 years in, we only need it to last for 10, your chance of running out is much, much less versus lopping off this in. You know, this portfolio built for 30 all of a sudden is going to last for 15 or for 20. If you do the same, the same number, you get to 10 years out. The, the effects are much more muted.

[Doug]

If it happens at 25 years out. I mean, so you play shuffleboard less. You're just sitting on the couch watching the HGTV anyways.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Is shuffleboard the expensive sport these days, though?

[OG]

P P. I was gonna say paddle ball, pickleball.

[Doug]

You're not playing paddle ball when you're 90 years old, you're not playing pickleball.

[OG]

Playing pickleball, paddle ball. The. Yeah, I think, I mean, you're right. But then also your million has turned into 3 million. So as long as your spending has remained commensurate with your lifestyle, starting 30 years ago, you have so much extra money.

[Doug]

That's what I hear is no slowdown in my QVC purchases when I'm 90 sitting in front of the television.

[OG]

Your pocket knives that you like to buy for $400.

[Doug]

Oh yeah, I just got a new one.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yet another one.

[OG]

They do look pretty.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Is this different than the old new one?

[Doug]

Yes. Yeah, I just got it like two days ago.

[OG]

Yeah, you have to show it off later.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I would say that you have a problem if. But I don't want to. But I don't want to. Because you'll turn it on board games then.

[Doug]

Yes, that's right, I will.

[OG]

We all have our own little idiosyncrasies. So yeah, sequence returns risk has to do with the ratio of your distribution, your portfolio value when you start. And also it becomes less impactful the later you go because that percentage gets smaller and smaller. So in theory, Anyway, it should. And so the way that we prevent against that or the way that we kind of mitigate that is through taking a look at what's really happened. So peak to trough market returns. How long does it take? What's that cycle look like? If you are that unfortunate person that retires January 1st of 2008 and your portfolio goes down by 38% in the year and you have to take money out, what can you do to offset those issues? And the way that you offset it is you have two years worth of cash, two years worth of those distributions that you're going to need anyway in a separate cash account and something, you know, it doesn't have to be cash, but something, you know, risk free, treasuries, whatever. So if you do retire in 2008, January and you get to the beginning of 2009, you're like, oh crap, I'm down 40%, what do I do? You just take it out of cash for two years. Because the person who did that and left their portfolio alone watched their portfolio rebound back to the million over the next 30 months.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Just imagine if this spring you had no money in cash, all your money was invested in the market. Even during that short period that down and right back up as we record this. Who knows, like we said earlier in the show, where it's at today as you're listening to this, but even during that og, I mean if you're taking money out and it goes down month one down, month two down month three and then back up month four, back up month five, back up month six, you're still taking the portfolio out and making it heal much slower.

[OG]

Yeah, I mean you have to put some parameters around this because you have to know what kind of average market ups and downs are going to look like. And you know, you can't make radical decision changes just because you know there's seven crappy trading days. So you have to have some rules around this. But that's really why you have the cash or something like cash is so that you have a place to draw money from when the market does go down. So you're not forced to sell those securities at a lower price. You just wait it out. Because the person, you're right, the person who looked at their statement, we joked about this with clients. If you looked at your statement on March 31, April 30 and May 31, you went, huh, okay, whatever. If you looked at it on March 31, April 7, you were like, oh my God, what is going on? Like you just had to wait till April 30th and you didn't even register. Just, you know, whatever it was a minus one or something over that period.

[Doug]

Of time when I used to help companies build KPIs and some metrics to help them understand is my business okay or not. One of the things we used to set up were kind of like the guardrails you talked about, but upper and lower parameters on key metrics because you didn't want to react too quickly. And you could set up whatever criteria or conditions you needed to, but it could be, it's this metric. In this case, the market has moved X percent and it sustained that for X amount of time so that you don't make a decision too harshly. And if it's sustained that for 30 days, okay, maybe now we sell that one position or that one sector or something like that, or maybe it's 120 days. But setting a plan up in advance and having both guardrails, if the market goes crazy or it goes crazy in the negative way, setting up some parameter for yourself so that you, when you're of sane mind and you're not freaking out because of some red line you see either on your browser tab or on tv, do it when you're nice and calm and you've had a couple of scotches that could save you from a lot of pain.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, I was about to talk about building your investment policy statement. Should incorporate all that. But yeah, your investment policy statement could be very interesting. After a couple scotches, you're like, I can't even read my own writing. Like, apparently we do nothing. Because I can't read what this is, but it sounds like. And why is this line called I love you Mid Cap? Like, what's that all about? No idea.

[Doug]

Have I told you you're my best friend?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Mid Cap an ode to emerging markets. What's that? There's an audio file attached to this. That's great. But Tony, thanks for the call of the year, my friend. What great framing of the call.

[Doug]

Everybody else do it Like Tony, it's.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

So wild that we knew exactly what he was talking about. Unless he was talking about throwing out his back. Maybe he was. He's got the wrong podcast, if you've got a question. And don't worry, you don't have to be as theatrical as Tony Stacky benjamin.com voicemail gets you here. And for helping us make the show, we even send you some swag, which I know is awesome. You want to brag to all your friends that you were on the Stacking Benjamin show. All right, let's wander out on the back porch because, Doug, you've got a little something something, I think, waiting for us there.

[Doug]

Yeah, Joe, man, we have been getting a ton of love for the episode we had featuring Brian Sutt. And that was an episode where Len Penzo sat in on that.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That was the week before Memorial Day. And. And I will get the number.

[Doug]

Get the number. That was the episode where Brian came on to talk about ways to save food, safe food, to not save food. Ways to save money by making sure you're really efficient with your food, because people can. If I remember right, did he say people are wasting up to a $3,000 a year?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, actually 3,530. If you cut your food waste from 3,500, which is the average in America, to only 500, which is Brian talked about and Len talked about. With just a few simple gamifying things, there's an easy three grand a year.

[Doug]

Yeah. Len brought up the Blue Apple trying to make a plug. I think he gets a commission on selling. That's funny.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I bought one right after the episode, too.

[OG]

Yeah, still sitting in a bag. We have.

[Doug]

You guys both fell for it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, I totally did.

[OG]

Anything yet?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yes.

[OG]

Does it work?

[Doug]

But anyways, we had some great activity in the basement. Our Facebook group, private, exclusive Facebook group called the Basement. And James really enjoyed it. He said a cool use of AI is to tell it what you have in your refrigerator that is going to go bad and have it give you meal recommendations.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, that's cool.

[Doug]

Yeah, it is pretty cool. As a bonus, as it learns about you, it can tailor the recommendations to you, how many people in your family, what spice level, likes, dislikes, and give it a try. It's fun.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That's cool.

[Doug]

I wonder how long it would take AI to realize that I hate cauliflower. Oh, hate it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

No. Well, you can just tell it up front. Don't include cauliflower.

[OG]

It's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, we know, Doug. Tostitos pepperoni rolls. We got it. That's where this is landing. Just put those in the oven.

[Doug]

Hot pocket, right?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Okay. Take that half a burrito that you brought home from the Mexican restaurant. Just combine it with Tostitos pizza rolls. I love you. I.

[Doug]

How did AI know that I brought that home?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

AI knows me.

[Doug]

It's always watching. Lynn also wrote an email to us saying, I loved the chat with Brian about food waste. Thanks for shining a light on this important topic. On top of the great tips from Brian and Len, we also keep masking tape nearby and label our plastic leftover containers so we have a better idea how long we have before food goes bad.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You know what's funny, Doug, is that.

[Doug]

That'S a little anal.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, Frankie Chalenza said the same thing when he was on talking food waste a few years ago. We haven't talked about this in a few years, so I'm glad that people liked us bringing this topic back. But Frankie said just with a little masking tape, you know, oh, this thing that's in back of my fridge. You know, you always put the new stuff in front of the old stuff, and next thing you know, you're keep pushing it back. Yeah, just rotate that lasagna. Yeah, exactly. Oh, look, did we have fuzzy lasagna?

[Doug]

Fuzzy lasagna. That was from that gourmet restaurant. You guys know how I eat. So this is. I thought this episode when I found out Brian Sleddups was coming on, I'm like, what the hell do we need to talk about this for? Because there is no food wasted at my house.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Doug is the Hoover.

[Doug]

We've got Rubbermaid containers. The little, you know, Tupperware. They just collect dust. We don't even need to use them.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

We've had so much fun. Just before we were headed to. On our recent vacation, we, like, the last three days, we had the weirdest ass meals. Like, it's a stir fry of rando vegetables.

[Doug]

Oh, also, hey, over on Spotify, mjv, Underscore, do create Underscore. B was a little shy.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Whose mom names him that?

[Doug]

That is a. Yeah. Wow.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I mean, sure.

[Doug]

Names are getting creative these days. They wrote if you throw away 30% of your food, you have other priorities and haven't made this a priority. And then finally, Claudia bought the blue apple and recommended. As did Roth. Roth. Roth. That's Ross and Heather together. I just made them like a celebrity.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Roth, Froth and Heather, they're like, what.

[Doug]

Was Ben Affleck and JLo? What were they?

[OG]

Benifer.

[Doug]

You don't know their celebrity name?

[OG]

Bennifer.

[Doug]

Bennifer.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Thank you.

[Doug]

Who would have thought OG would come up with.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I know, right?

[Doug]

Joe Bennifer. So now Ross and Heather are revenue.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I want to go back to MJV. And if you throw away 30 of a food, you made other priorities. And I'm glad they said that because it truly is an easy three grand. It's an easy three grand. And I gotta tell you, when you actually clean out the fridge and you make it a game. Ever since I heard Brian talk about this at Economy. Which is why I wanted to have him on. Cheryl and I have had just a lot of fun with going, okay, how little ways could we. I'm not gonna do the $3 and 50 cents thing that Brian does. Like, that's insanity. And he even admitted on the show that it's insanity. But still good. And I. And I do think it's funny. So it was OG Me, Claudia Ross and Heather all bought the Blue Apple and rather. Yeah, great stuff. Well, thank you for all the discussion around that episode. I'm glad that we got a lot of stackers saving some. Saving some food waste. If you know somebody that needs help with the 4% rule, they're. They're diving into it. You could share this episode with them and tell them, guess what? I got good news. Because it might be the 5 1/2% rule for you now.

[OG]

Give or take.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, ish. I know. That's what people like in their rules is the word ish.

[Doug]

Yeah.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Like when a building engineer goes, it's 3, 3 and 3/4 ish. To make sure this is stable, that.

[Doug]

Stop sign, you know, if you feel like it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Right. I recommend a slow roll.

[Doug]

I don't know if people know this, but the stop signs that have the white border around them, those are optional. I mean, just look around when you're driving next time, look around. There's more of them than you think.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, maybe not optional. Doug, by the way, is referring to the white borders optional, not whether you stop. All right, stackers. Thank you for a great day. We'll see you back here on Wednesday. Doug, what's on our takeaway list today?

[Doug]

Well, Joe, first, take some advice from our headline using the 4% rule. First, even the creator doesn't think that's a thing. But second, why not start with how much you need to withdraw each year to bring you joy and then work backwards from there. Okay, then $11 million ought to do it. Got it. Second sequence of return risk. It's greater at the beginning of your retirement than later because often there are more days at risk. Risk diminishes when either the magnitude or probability decrease. But the big lesson. Speaking of decrease, how come Joe's mom now only buys the frozen regular shrimp? Hey, Ma, check this out. I think this is a little shellfish. You get it? I think this is a little shellfish. So hold on. The whole time I'm talking about jumbo shrimp was all to set up this joke. Oh, my God. Like, what the hell am I talking about? Jumbo shrimp for this show is the property of SP Podcasts, LLC, Copyright 2025 and is created by Josal Sehive. Joe gets help from a few of our neighborhood friends. You'll find out about our awesome [e-mail] along with the show notes and how you can find us on YouTube and all the usual social media spots. Come say hello.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, yeah.

[Doug]

And before I go, not only should you not take advice from these nerds, don't take advice from people you don't know. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any financial decisions, speak with a real financial advisor. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug, and we'll see you next time back here at the Stacking Benjamin Show.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Sam Foreign. Welcome to the after show. If you're new to this podcast, this is part of the show that does not exist. You don't talk about it. You don't share it. I love it when people discover the after show later. They're like, I can't believe this happens. But it's never. Well, sometimes it is, but it's rarely about finance. There are times, though, when it is about finance, and that is today's after show topic. You know, we were talking, guys, about how the Brits are fantastic with drama and with music and with comedy, but I think the Aussies might have them beat when it comes to comedy.

[Doug]

Really?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I've seen so many hilarious Australian things. And this one, by the way, they're gonna say a word that might not be safe for children. They're not going to really swear, so.

[Doug]

Australians rarely swear.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, you. You might want to. You might want to wait till your kids are out of the room before. Out of the car before you listen to the next part. So just pause this and save it for later. This is what happens in Australia as you're checking out of the hotel. Checking out today. Yeah. Thank you. Room 207. How'd you enjoy your stay with us? Yeah, it was very nice.

[OG]

Thanks. Okay, there's.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

There's a room service minibar, three phone calls and two in room movies. Now. Is that on your Visa? Yeah, thank you.

[OG]

That'd be great.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

No, hang on. Two movies? We only watched one movie.

[OG]

It's okay, just put it on the card.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

We're not paying for a movie we didn't watch. I can assure you, madam, both movies were ordered by your room. Honey.

[OG]

No need to cause a scene. Yeah, what were the movies?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Harry Potter 5, the Order of the Phoenix and Sorority Sluts 4. I Got it when you were in your meeting. I don't believe this.

[OG]

It appears that my husband likes to.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Watch children's movies about wizards and magic owls.

[OG]

Whenever I turn my back.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Harry Potter. How old are you? You're sick. Harry Potter. That might be a little awkward watching some Harry Potter movies.

[Doug]

It was. It was awkward when I was of the age.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

What Stackers have no idea was going on during that entire episode was in a part that we cut or a discussion that didn't make the final. Which would be the same thing as cutting it. Just to define what cutting.

[OG]

What it means is. We said some stuff and took it out.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Mansplaining, Mansplaining, cutting to our audience. But Doug said the word. Say the word Doug often.

[Doug]

Yes, I say it often.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And OG was not having it.

[OG]

I mean, it's just incorrect at every level. And.

[Doug]

But it's not.

[OG]

Oh, you found one YouTube idiot to say that. You're right.

[Doug]

Effing English dictionary. The. The final say in definitions and pronunciations is the oed. And they say both are correct. In fact, auth den was the original pronunciation of it. And you go, what do you do? Because you're so freaking lazy. You go to chat GPT to see what's right.

[OG]

And going to a YouTube video is.

[Doug]

Somehow less than Oxford English Dictionary.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

So Doug first goes to a YouTube video and says, you can. So I look at my. My phone and there's this chat going on the whole time. We're talking about the 4% rule, aka maybe 5% ish rule.

[Doug]

I wonder if anybod noticed. Like, were we just so smooth that we were having two conversations at once?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Two of you were, but I wasn't. So Doug says, you can F right off. And then OG says, great ear. You're picking up the. On a classic. Oh, oh, you asked chat GPT.

[OG]

Yeah, yeah, I asked Chat GPT. Do you say often with the T sound? And it says it's a classic pronunciation quirk. Many people pronounce the t and it's becoming more common to Doug's perspective. And it's not considered incorrect anymore.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

People are often using the T. Yeah.

[OG]

Originally did have the T in pronunciation, just like Doug said, but it became silent over time. So it gave you this thing. And then I said, well, why do people think it's okay to sound the T when it's not correct? How is the world going so backward? And ChatGPT, I thought, made some very good points. And this just lines up perfectly with how Doug thinks. I think that it was just like. I agree, it does spot on. And it says, folks, try so hard to sound proper that they overcorrect and say, often thinking it sounds more formal or educated. Ironically, it's the opposite. The T was dropped centuries ago in educated British English.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Educated.

[OG]

Yeah. You know, Chatgpt, people hate feeling wrong. Correcting someone's pronunciation feels elitist to them, and I know that does.

[Doug]

I feel so good when I correct you on insurance.

[OG]

Yeah, okay. Okay.

[Doug]

I feel a lot better about myself.

[OG]

When you hear someone say off thin, they might double down on often out of stubbornness, insurance, or misplaced confidence, which is. I mean, that's the bumper sticker that's on Doug's big giant pickup truck. I mean, if there was three bumper stickers on the back of that oversized pickup truck of yours, it would say stubbornness, insecurity, and misplaced confidence. That would be. It's also on every golf club you own. I mean, it's like, literally.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I like where this ends.

[OG]

Yeah.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

So yes, often is technically a corruption, but like cargo shorts and TikTok dances, it's here to stay, whether we like it or not.