These Are Our Community's Biggest Money Monsters (SB1635)

Summary

The Stacking Benjamins Show: "These Are Our Community's Biggest Money Monsters (SB1635)"

Release Date: January 24, 2025

Hosts: Joe Saul-Sehy and OG
Guests:

• Paula Pant – Host of the Afford Anything podcast
• Jesse Kramer – Host of the Best Interest podcast
• Dr. Jordan Grummet (Doc G) – Host of the Earn and Invest podcast

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Introduction

In this episode titled "These Are Our Community's Biggest Money Monsters," hosts Joe Saul-Sehy and OG delve into the prevalent fears and concerns within the personal finance community. Joined by esteemed guests Paula Pant, Jesse Kramer, and Dr. Jordan Grummet, the discussion aims to demystify common financial anxieties and provide actionable insights to help listeners navigate their financial journeys confidently.

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The Boogeyman of Index Fund Concentration

Understanding the Concern

The conversation initiates with a discussion on a thought-provoking piece by Jim Wang of Apex Money, highlighting the increasing concentration of top holdings within index funds. Specifically, the concern centers around the top ten holdings, often dominated by large technology companies, comprising approximately 40% of the index. This concentration raises questions about diversification and the true safety of index fund investments.

Historical Context and Reassurance

• Paula Pant: [12:39] Emphasizes that market concentration isn't a new phenomenon. Historically, sectors like railroads and oil once held dominant positions within the market. The essence of investing in index funds is to maintain broad exposure without the need to pick individual winners.

  "Throughout history, a handful of companies have dominated the overall market. Back in the day, it was railroad stocks, oil and gas stocks... the entire idea behind buying a major index fund is to ensure exposure to these companies before they become too big." – Paula Pant [12:39]

• Dr. Jordan Grummet: [12:41] Discusses the metaphor of index funds relative to actively managed funds, highlighting that index funds are not as insignificant as once thought. He touches upon concerns like the potential for an "index fund bubble" but remains relatively unconcerned due to market efficiency.

  "Prices are determined by trading volume, not necessarily by whether they are held passively or actively. The index dinghy is considerably bigger than the cruise liner." – Dr. Jordan Grummet [12:41]

Strategies to Mitigate Concentration Risks

• Jesse Kramer: [15:40] Suggests accepting a bit of concentration while diversifying across different asset classes such as bonds, cash, real estate, and even considering smaller market indices to balance the portfolio.

  "You can accept a little over concentration and diversify into other asset classes like bonds, cash, real estate, or even add small-cap allocations to offset some risk." – Jesse Kramer [15:40]

• Paula Pant: [16:14] Reinforces the importance of diversification and suggests integrating small-cap allocations to address concerns about market concentration.

  "Having some kind of small-cap allocation can solve a lot of concerns if you’re worried about index concentration." – Paula Pant [16:14]

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Timing the Market: Fear of Missing the Perfect Moment

The Fear

A significant worry among investors is the fear of investing at an inopportune time, leading to potential market downturns immediately after investment. This fear often causes hesitation, causing individuals to delay investing and miss out on long-term growth.

Expert Insights and Solutions

• Dr. Jordan Grummet: [22:42] Advocates for immediate investment but acknowledges the anxiety by recommending a strategy that combines lump-sum investing with dollar-cost averaging over 12 months.

  "Put a large chunk in today, a third, half today, and the remainder spread out evenly over the next 12 months. This way, you're getting your money into the market while mitigating some risk." – Dr. Jordan Grummet [22:42]

• Paula Pant: [23:37] Emphasizes that "time in the market" outweighs "timing the market," encouraging consistent investing regardless of market conditions.

  "Time in the market is more important than timing the market. Just keep shoveling money in consistently over time." – Paula Pant [23:37]

• Jesse Kramer: [25:23] Supports the idea that as long as money is invested, whether immediately or through a phased approach, the long-term benefits outweigh the short-term uncertainties.

  "As long as you're getting your money in the market, you're winning. It's those who wait forever who end up missing out." – Jesse Kramer [25:23]

Notable Quote:

"Time in the market is more important than timing the market." – Paula Pant [23:37]

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Navigating Black Swan Events

Defining Black Swan Events

Black Swan events are low-probability, high-impact events that can drastically affect financial markets and personal finances. The hosts explore how these unpredictable events contribute to financial anxiety.

Managing the Fear

• Paula Pant: [26:45] Discusses the balance between preparing for Black Swan events and not over-focusing on them to the detriment of overall financial planning.

  "People rightly protect against the risk of ruin from Black Swan events, but sometimes they overestimate the probability and focus too much on the threat." – Paula Pant [26:45]

• Jesse Kramer: [28:06] Introduces the concept of White Swan events—probable and often occurring events like divorce or health crises—that are less dramatic but more predictable and frequent.

  "We worry about Black Swan events, but don't pay enough attention to White Swan events, which are devastating yet highly probable." – Jesse Kramer [28:06]

• Dr. Jordan Grummet: [29:10] Shares an anecdote about an unexpected Black Swan event, illustrating how even with planning, some surprises are inevitable.

  "I never could have guessed I would drop my phone into the bathtub—total Black Swan." – Dr. Jordan Grummet [29:10]

Notable Quote:

"Black Swan events and cat's butts are similar in three ways: both are hard to control, totally unpredictable, and incredibly disruptive surprises." – Paula Pant [68:27]

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Addressing Scams and Market Rigging Concerns

The Fear

There exists a skepticism among investors regarding the integrity of the stock market, with fears that it might be rigged or manipulated by insiders, leading to unfair advantages for certain players.

Clarifying Market Efficiency

• Jesse Kramer: [47:15] Argues that large, well-regulated markets tend to be efficient, meaning that prices reflect all available information, making systemic rigging unlikely. He emphasizes that inefficiencies are more prevalent in smaller, less-regulated markets.

  "The larger the market, the more efficient it is. These big markets tend to move in the direction they should, reflective of the companies' values." – Jesse Kramer [47:15]

• Paula Pant: [49:00] References the Gamestop controversy, acknowledging the height of public scrutiny but maintaining that such events are exceptions rather than the rule in well-regulated markets.

  "During the Gamestop event, there was a lot of monitoring by elected leaders and regulators, providing layers of protection that mitigated deeper concerns." – Paula Pant [49:00]

• Dr. Jordan Grummet: [51:40] Explores the concept of insider trading among lawmakers and its ethical implications, highlighting that while it's illegal to trade on non-public information, occasional abuses can erode trust in the system.

  "If someone in Congress trades on privileged information, it undermines the fairness of the market, even if it doesn't directly prevent individual participation." – Dr. Jordan Grummet [51:40]

Strategic Response to Market Skepticism

• Jesse Kramer: [54:15] Reinforces that while beta (market returns) is accessible to all, seeking alpha (above-market returns) often involves taking on additional risks or falling prey to potential scams, suggesting that most investors are better served by focusing on market efficiency.

  "Beta is free. You get the S&P 500 index or a total market index without attempting to beat the market, which often leads to chasing alpha and getting involved in risky or fraudulent schemes." – Jesse Kramer [54:15]

Notable Quote:

"The market is efficient in large markets, reflecting all publicly available information. Rigging is more likely in smaller, less-regulated markets." – Jesse Kramer [47:15]

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The Importance of Asset Allocation

Balancing Granularity and Simplicity

Asset allocation remains a cornerstone of effective investment strategy, but overemphasizing it can lead to unnecessary complexity and missed opportunities.

Expert Opinions

• Paula Pant: [57:58] Warns against becoming overly obsessed with asset allocation to the point where it detracts from the broader investment strategy.

  "Over-obsessing about asset allocation can cause investors to miss the forest for the trees, worrying about the wrong things." – Paula Pant [57:58]

• Jesse Kramer: [61:10] Highlights that asset allocation should become more nuanced as individuals accumulate significant savings or approach retirement, promoting simplicity during the wealth accumulation phase.

  "For young people just starting out, a simple approach like VTSAX makes sense. Asset allocation becomes more critical as you accumulate wealth and approach decumulation." – Jesse Kramer [61:10]

• Dr. Jordan Grummet: [62:25] Agrees that while asset allocation is fundamental, the degree of attention should correlate with one’s financial maturity and goals.

  "Once you have a substantial amount saved, it’s time to get more granular with your asset allocation to optimize your portfolio." – Dr. Jordan Grummet [62:25]

Notable Quote:

"The key is not to be overly granular early on but to adjust asset allocation as your financial situation evolves." – Jesse Kramer [61:10]

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Trivia Competition Kick-Off

Engaging the Community

To foster engagement, the hosts inaugurate a year-long trivia competition with participants from their community. The first question posed was:

"After we plus one this invite to the billionaire club, how many billionaires will there be in the world?"

Participants' Guesses vs. Reality

• Jesse Kramer: Guessed 3,542 [35:58]
• Dr. Jordan Grummet: Guessed 1,071 [37:15]
• Paula Pant: Guessed 1,070 [37:46]

Correct Answer:
As revealed by Doug, the actual number of billionaires post-invitation was 2,781.

"The correct answer is 2,781 plus one." – Doug [44:22]

Outcome:

• Doug wins the first round despite his humorous and over-the-top guessing.

  "The correct answer is 2,781 plus one." – Doug [44:22]

Prize:
A dollar store trophy with an erasable front.

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Community and Ongoing Projects

Afford Anything Podcast:

• Paula Pant discussed ongoing series on asset allocation and navigating beyond basic index funds. Collaborative episodes with Joe cover step-by-step guides to constructing diversified portfolios.

  "Join me on the Afford Anything podcast for discussions on asset allocation and efficient frontiers, complete with charts and graphs to guide your investment strategies." – Paula Pant [62:55]

Best Interest Podcast:

• Jesse Kramer celebrated reaching 100 episodes, highlighting a journey from basement recordings to a seasoned podcast authority. Upcoming episodes include community-centric discussions and continued financial insights.

  "We've reached 100 episodes, exploring everything from savings satisfaction to community member experiences. Excited for what's next!" – Jesse Kramer [64:15]

Earn and Invest Podcast:

• Dr. Jordan Grummet spoke about recent episodes focusing on savings satisfaction and optimistic financial planning, emphasizing the importance of community engagement.

  "We've been discussing savings satisfaction and providing optimistic spins on financial planning. Excited to continue these conversations." – Dr. Jordan Grummet [66:40]

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Closing Remarks

The hosts conclude by thanking their guests and encouraging listeners to engage with their respective podcasts. They emphasize the importance of community and continuous learning in personal finance.

Final Takeaways:

1. Investing Strategies: Embrace "time in the market" over "timing the market" to maximize long-term growth.
2. Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate concentration risks inherent in large index funds.
3. Preparedness: Balance planning for unpredictable Black Swan events with preparation for more probable White Swan events.
4. Asset Allocation: Adjust asset allocation strategies as financial circumstances evolve, avoiding overcomplication early on.
5. Community Engagement: Participate in community activities like trivia competitions to enhance financial literacy and camaraderie.

Notable Closing Quote:

"The market is not efficient, but for 99.9% of us, pretending it is allows us to focus our energy elsewhere." – Joe Saul-Sehy [56:24]

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For more insights and detailed discussions, visit StackingBenjamins.com.

Transcript

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

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[Doug]

Live from the basement of the YouTube headquarters, it's the Stacking Benjamin Show. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug. And finally, it's a normal, straightforward, everyday, regular Friday episode of the Stacking Benjamin Show. What does that mean? Well look, here's our recipe for some good old home cooked finance chat. We start with a compelling topic like the one we've got today, things we worry about as finance nerds and how to combat those fears. Cool topic, right? Then we add in some great contributors, like the woman behind the Afford Anything podcast and YouTube page, Paula Pant. And also like this guy from the Best Interest podcast, Jesse Kramer. And how about our partner from over at earn and invest, Dr. Jordan Grummet, aka Doc G. Then I throw all that into A Ziploc bag and I shake it up real good. And what happens then? Shake it bake, baby. Shake it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Bake.

[Doug]

Well, you know, I mean that that means they're going to share some wisdom and insights and stuff, but it sounds way cooler when you say shake and bake. But that's not all. On today's episode, they'll also kick off our year long stacking Benjamin's trivia challenge. And now a guy who I think of first when I think of challenged. It's Joe Saul Sehi.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Wow. Starting off the year right, Doug? Doug.

[Doug]

We're firing on all cylinders today, baby.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Shake and bake and challenge the same intro. Welcome back to, well, to another normal episode of the Stacky Benjamin show. First one of 2025. We've had so many special episodes in a row. Let's say hello to the team that joins us today. Let's start off with the woman from the Afford Anything podcast. Paula Pant is here in a nice, bright green, like, happy sweater.

[Paula Pant]

Yes. Yeah. I love bringing bright, cheerful kind of springtime colors to the gloom of winter. I never understood, you know, why is it that when the trees are bare and the skies are dark, when it's gloomy outside and it gets dark at 4pm why does everybody wear dark colors? Why not snazz it up with some brightness?

[Doug]

Well, you see, Paula, for the answer to that, we're gonna have to go all the way back to the Victorian times to discuss is this a cleanliness and their inability to clean up horse poop.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I was going to say, though, Paula, especially New Yorkers. I noticed I had a raincoat because it rained like hell when I was there in December with you and Jordan and Og and so I had done this red raincoat I felt way out of. I felt like I was way too colorful.

[Paula Pant]

Right, exactly. And, well, I mean, but to Doug's point, New Yorkers also kind of have a problem with cleaning up horse poop.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

So maybe, yes. Is that what the mayor's worried about these days?

[Doug]

Maybe they like it.

[Paula Pant]

Rats. Rats is the bigger problem here. We have a rat czar. We have an official, official rat czar.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It's amazing. And the guy who's the rat czar of this podcast, I got no idea where that's headed. Doc G. Jordan Grubbit's here. How are you?

[Jordan Grummet]

It's gonna be me.

[Jesse Kramer]

I was about to say, I didn't know if you were gonna zig or zag there. Yeah. Were you going to Jesse, who gets.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

To be the rat czar?

[Jesse Kramer]

You keep on talking about this is our normal Friday episode. And I was like, there's nothing normal here. Nothing normal here at all.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

There might not be. Well, how's the book tour going, my friend?

[Jesse Kramer]

It is busy. If you've been seeing a lot of me lately, it's because, guess what, I had a book come out. I've been trying to get out there and get the messages of the book across and just trying to celebrate, you know, it's a big thing when you have a book drop.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And I love, by the way, all the positive reviews I'm seeing. Like not even positive, glowing reviews I'm seeing of it. Of course, well deserved. I was meeting one on one with a stacker named Hannah today. Hey, Hannah. And I told Hannah, I go, you know, I got this book I think you'd really like. She goes, doc, cheese books, purpose, code. I'm like, yes, exactly. She goes, I'm reading it right now. It's so good. So, so, so good.

[Jesse Kramer]

One of the funny things is when people are talking to you about the book and they start using your terminology. So it's pretty cool.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That is good. Like little P. Yep, exactly. Yes, yes. Speaking of little P. I knew that was coming.

[Jordan Grummet]

Thanks, doc. You set me up.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I had a positive one all set up.

[Jesse Kramer]

Jesse.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And then he reloaded. Jesse Kramer. How are you, man?

[Jordan Grummet]

Doing well, doing well. All this snow talk. I mean, at this point, my life is in grayscale here in Rochester. I mean, haven't seen the blue sky for weeks. You know, you can see behind me. Look at that. Do you see any color back there?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

No, nothing. No, but it is this nice winter landscape, this winter wonderland, which I think ends in June in Rochester, New York. Isn't that about right?

[Jordan Grummet]

It'll smelt by June. Yeah, that's what they say. That's a. It's an old Rochester adverb proverb, one of those metaphor aphorism.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

All the above. Jesse, you, you would agree with me on this one because I totally agree with what Paula said about the bright colors. But I also, man, after the holiday season, I'm okay with taking down the Christmas trees. You know, that represents a specific day. But why don't we take down all those pretty lights like that? That's the one that gets me. We should leave the lights up and just call them winter lights.

[Jordan Grummet]

Joe, you should meet the guy in my neighborhood who by far, he had the most lights. I don't want to criticize him here on such a popular show because he's probably tuning in. But he could be A little more selective in what he chooses to put up in his yard. Last year, it took him till after Easter to bring them all down. It was St. Patrick's Day and there was still a nativity scene out there.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You live next to Clark Griswold, you.

[Jordan Grummet]

Know, hey, different, different strokes for different folks, you know. It's fine, it's fine.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, I'm super excited that all three of you are here today to kick off a, quote, normal episode of the Stacky Benjamin Show. You know what? Today I got inspired when I was reading our friend Jim Wang's piece on index fund concentration. Jim writes at Apex Money. Go to ApexMoney.com he also curates a lot of good stuff there, but he shares his fantastic thinking there as well. And Jim wrote this hero. I love investing with index funds. Low cost, low thinking, diversified, safe. What scares me a little is that the top 10 holdings account for like 40% of the index. And it's mostly technology. I still invest in index funds, but it's not all sunshine and rainbows. The challenge with this realization is that there's no alternative. Many actively managed funds hold exactly the same assets. Pot, kettle, black active funds in the index concentration argument from Morningstar. This is a quote. Indexing critics claim, among other things, the index funds, the tail wagging the dog. The way they tell it, investors pour money into index funds, the funds shovel those dollars into their top holdings and the portfolio gets ever more concentrated. This, they say, makes index funds a kind of perpetual motion machine, distorting the value of its stock holdings. Of course, then active funds doing exactly the same thing. I know this is not something that the average person worries about, but this is something the average stacker worries about, the average afforder, the average best interester, the average earning investor worries about. Like this is stuff our audience worries about, which got me thinking. This is kind of like the boogeyman, isn't it? We'll talk about why I think that this isn't the huge deal a lot of people think that it is. But what are some of these other deals? These things that we over worry about, these things hiding, going, maybe bump in the night. We're going to go into all those in just a moment. But first we have some sponsors that make sure this show's free so that you don't have to pay for it. All this goodness that's about to come with Paula, Jesse and Jordan. But before that, let's hear from them. And then we're going to talk about what fears do our money nerd friends Have. And how do we fight those? Well, debt can really take a toll on you. Between minimum payments and interest rates, it's really stressful and I've been there stackers. And at times it feels like you just can't get ahead. Well, Navy Federal Credit Union understands that's a huge stressor and they're here to help. Navy Federal Credit Union has all the financial tools and resources you need to dominate debt. Here's what you do. Put together your strategy. One piece of a strategy might be to lower those interest rates as much as possible so you can sock even more toward those principal payments. Right? And right now Navy Federal Credit Union is offering a 0% intro APR on credit card balance transfers for up to 12 months. Plus you can get 250 when you spend 2500 dollars in your first 90 days on a cash rewards or cash rewards plus credit card. Don't let that drag you down. Visit Navy federal.org to start dominating debt today. Navy Federal Credit Union. Our members are the mission. Navy Federal is insured by NCUA. After the intro rate expires, variable APRs are 15.15% to 18% based on creditworthiness. Rates are subject to change. ATM fees for cash advances are up to $1 at non Navy Federal ATMs.

[Doug]

How high is the interest rate for the new Laurel Road High Yield Savings Account?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

This high.

[Doug]

The air is really, really thin up here. The Laurel Road Very High Yield Savings.

[Jordan Grummet]

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[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Laurelroad is a brand of KeyBank member FDIC. All right, let's start this off with the actual topic here of index fund concentration. Paula, does this idea that, you know these top ten holdings of the Magnificent Seven, as we call them now that these dominate the index fund and we're kind of going to go the way seven companies go.

[Paula Pant]

It is true. I mean, the premise of the question is definitely true. The Magnificent Seven represent a major portion of a total stock market index or an S&P 500 index. But what people often miss is that throughout history a handful of companies have dominated the overall market. So back in the day it was railroad stocks, right? It was oil and gas stocks in the days of Standard Oil and John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie. Like this was an issue then too. And so the entire idea behind buying a major index fund is to make sure that by virtue of not picking and choosing, you do have exposure to Those seven prior to when they become so big so that you can be part of that growth.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Jesse, same question. Do you worry about this?

[Jordan Grummet]

I've written about it before and certainly like thought about it a lot. And there's that whole idea, right of the tail wagging the dog. I mean, something that maybe Stackers are aware of is back when index funds were initially thought of, at that time, any sort of mutual fund out there was actively managed. And you can so because it was just everything out there was, was this way. You could think of it as this giant ocean liner of actively managed funds kind of cruising through the ocean determining the prices of stocks. Everybody out there through their trading activity was determining the prices of stocks. And then you have this little index fund, this little thingy that all it's doing is kind of tying a rope behind the ocean liner and saying, whatever you say, the prices are fine. Those are the prices. We're just going to follow your lead and buy in at those prices. And so if that's the metaphor you choose to think about it as well, it's not a giant active cruise liner and a really small index dinghy. Now actually the index dinghy is considerably bigger than the cruise liner. And so does the metaphor kind of break apart? It's interesting if you think about it through that lens. There are some concerns. I saw Nick Magi just wrote this week about the index fund bubble. A lot of ink has been spilled on the topic. I think it's a really cool topic. I'm not personally too concerned simply because prices are determined by trading volume, not necessarily by is it held passively or held actively. But we'll see what the future holds. I mean, what if the whole stock market ends up being indexed? How, how will that work?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, I mean, Jordan, what ends up happening then is we're all buying these same. Let's say it's 97. Let's say it's these 500 companies. What happens to a company when they drop out of the s and P500? I mean, holy cow. The amount your stock will drop just because of the indexification of the world could be gloom and doom for companies that are right on the fringe. How do you fight this concentration? I mean, if you know it's happening and you know that my index might be almost half 7, 8, 10 companies, how do you fight it?

[Jesse Kramer]

I mean, there are a few ways to do it. One is you can accept that there is a little over concentration. And if you look at the s and P500 over right. Decades and decades and Decades. It's always been somewhat over concentrated, yet the returns have continuously been good. So you can accept the fact that it is self cleansing, that it will change based on what's happening and that you'll never go down to zero. So one is acceptance. The other thing is to realize that even equities are just one of many asset allocations. Right. So you can have equities, you can have your bond allocation, you can have your cash allocation. Some people really like to do real estate, whether that's REITs or whether they own real estate. Some people are into things like crypto and gold. I personally am not. But it's another way also to diversify. So I think there's some other things you can do. There is obviously a group of people who believe in adding some of the things that are missing from the S&P 500. Right. So can we add some small cap value? So that's a way in which you can add some other index ins. Could you add basically a variety of different indexes to cover what the S and P does? And that certainly is a way you could go if you're interested.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, that was my first thought, Paul, was why would we just have one index? You know, I mean, you don't even have to get fancy with bitcoin and real estate. You could just have three or four indexes.

[Paula Pant]

Yeah, I mean a, a small cap allocation is a great way to kind of offset a little bit of the risk. The, the key is, you know, and you could spend eternity debating this question is what percentage of your portfolio should you put in a total market index and what percentage should you put in a small cap allocation? But having some kind of a small cap allocation in there, that can solve a lot of this concern, if you do have this concern.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

There's something else that Doc G said, Jesse, that I think a lot of people don't know about or don't think enough about. And he called it self cleansing. Right. That the index is self cleansing. And I think this is a big thing. Do you mind explaining how the index is self cleansing to our stackers out there? Because for me, this gives me a lot of comfort that I don't have to pay attention to the fact that this is only seven stocks.

[Jordan Grummet]

Well, yeah, I think what Doc Chi is referring to there, and maybe as an example, we can use an S&P 500 index fund, which is to say that when you have an underperforming company inside the S&P 500, and maybe as an S&P 500 index fund, owner, maybe it doesn't appeal to you that you own this underperforming company inside of the index. Well, eventually, if the company continues to underperform, that company is going to drop out of the s and P500, drop out of the index, and, and it will be replaced by another company that ostensibly is doing much better. And so that over time, you know, all you have to do is look at the constituent companies of the s and P500 over the last 50 years, and what you'll realize is that the companies that haven't performed well have eventually dropped out of the index. And the companies that started small and are doing really, really well eventually join the index. And as the owner of the index, you own all the right companies, maybe not all the time, but enough of the time so that your returns have ended up in pretty, pretty good.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And I think, Paula, this was even part of your original point that people that are new to this might not realize that if it during, you know, he went back to John D. Rockefeller, for goodness sakes. But if it was Standard Oil back in the day, then it was General Electric and AT&T and, you know, you didn't have to trade anything. The index just kept up.

[Paula Pant]

Exactly. So naturally, that's sort of the point of the index is naturally, over time, as the winners start to, to weaken in their position. I mean, General Electric is a great example. It's, it still exists. It's still a, it's not the Dutch East India company like it, it still is in business, but it just occupies a smaller position of the overall index. And so naturally, over time, as these things happen, the index automatically adjusts.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

There's a fear that a lot of our money nerd fans have that I've seen on the Internet that I'd like to also address. And that's the fear that if I buy an index fund, that these people managing the index fund on Wall street are idiots and we can beat the idiots. That's not the reason why. And this is, I don't want to spend a lot of time on this, but this is not the reason why these people lose. If you've ever met people on Wall street, they don't get Wall street jobs because they're morons. The way they're paid, though, has a lot to do with why they lose and the amount of money they're managing, millions and sometimes billions of dollars. And their ability to get in and out of a position quickly is 0 second because of this thing called a prospectus, which is meant to protect you if Paula runs a fun company. As an example, she is told that she has to buy this one asset class and that's it. And then her performance is based on how she does relative to the S&P 500. So through defensive mechanisms, aka I want to keep my job, they try to stay as close as they can to the S and P, making very few bets. So I hear often this fear that, that, oh, anybody can beat the idiots and it's been proven. Well, it's not because they're morons. It's because of how they're paid. Paula, what's your cat doing back there?

[Paula Pant]

My cat is about to attack my turtle. So that's my turtle tank. That's the cat sniffing the turtle tank.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Every money nerd watching this video on YouTube with us is worried about that.

[Paula Pant]

Now the cat has lost interest in the turtle and is simply, oh, and now she's showing us her butt.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

There it is.

[Jesse Kramer]

That's about right.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, better the Kat than Doug. So we're good to go there. Doc, what's another thing you find people in your earn invest community really worry about that the average person doesn't worry about.

[Jesse Kramer]

So what I hear, and I'm not sure this is something that the average person doesn't worry about, but what I hear over and over again is they come into money somehow, right? They get a bonus, maybe they get an inheritance. Something good happens and they have a bunch of money and it's the fear that they're going to put the money in the market and the market's going to drop the next day. So they might buy into indexes. They might be like, okay, I'm ready. I like this idea of having money in equities, but I'm still going to kind of wait because things are running a little rich, right? That's what they say. It's running a little rich. Let's wait till the prices go down a little so that I could put my money in. And as we all know, no one can predict what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day. And therefore, you're just basically keeping your money out of the market. And the longer you keep your money out of the market, the more likely in the long term you're going to lose. So I see that one quite a bit as I'm just. I agree with this idea. I even know that I want to put my money in S&P 500 index, but things are running so high today. I better hold off.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

We even see it, Jesse, with like 401k rollovers right. Well, I don't know if this is a good time to roll over my 401k to an IRA, because the market's high right now. And who knows, are the market's sinking or the market's going up or the market, you know, all these.

[Jordan Grummet]

All these reasons, 100% to back up what both you guys just said. A very. I think it was episode, a recent episode. I won't plug myself, but I had an entire episode of my podcast inspired by a woman, a listener, who reached out in August saying, hey, this is August of 2024. Hey, is now the right time to invest? And I listed out all the things that Doc G just said about, like, hey, we can't be sure if now's the right time to invest or not. She didn't heed the advice. And then in December, she reached back out and said, oh, I guess you were right. Well, on that front, I'll say to listeners, there's a great quote to keep in mind, which is that market returns are written in pencil, not pen. So my advice to her is right so far, for all we know, the market might drop 20% in a month, and then she can invest. And it would have been the smart thing to do. But to go back to what Jordan said, all else being equal, the odds are she should have invested as soon as possible. History bears that out over and over again. We can look at little things like the PE ratio, the CAPE ratio, the cyclically adjusted penalty, and maybe we can try to make some arguments that when the CAPE ratio is high, when prices of stocks are high relative their earnings, future returns tend to be a little bit lower. There's some truth there, but it still doesn't mean that just because you have a high PE ratio that you should avoid investing. Today is definitely a common thread that I think we all see in a lot of the DIY investor community.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

What's your best strategy then? It sounds like it's just invest it, invest it now, get in.

[Jordan Grummet]

Well, it is, or at the very least, something that I think is a really good middle ground, is to say, okay, let's put together a plan that over the next 12 months, you're going to get this money in the market. My vote, Mr. Person I'm talking to, would be to put it all in today. And I think because of that, why don't you put a large chunk of it, put a third of it in today, put half of it in today, and then the remainder, let's put in an equal amount every month over the next 12 months, something like that. You know, it's not going to be ideal, right? You know, in retrospect, you're going to look backward and the ideal scenario will have revealed itself. You don't know when the ideal time to commit is. And so if you want to hedge your bets, fine, put it in a little bit now, spread the rest over the remaining 12 months. But either way, you can dollar cost average that way and at least your money will get in the market eventually.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Paul, anything you'd add to that or say differently to somebody who has that fear?

[Paula Pant]

I would say time in the market just to kind of piggyback off of it, but say it in a different way. Time in the market is more important than timing the market. And as you know, Jesse mentioned Nick Magiulli earlier. His book is titled Just Keep Buying. And so I think if you kind of hold both of those ideas in your head, time in the market is more important than timing. And your job is to just keep buying. Like that's all you do, just shovel money in and don't even pay attention to any of the. The rest of it. If you do that consistently over time, you'll be good with, with a good asset allocation, you'll be good.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I would add a Mayan too, if it's a. Because, Doc, you gave us the example of somebody that has inheritance, right? So this is new money to you. If it's new money to you, I like Jesse, I like your idea of the dollar cost averaging in. Because we don't know. And even though the market goes up roughly 70% of the time over long periods of time, we don't know that that's going to be tomorrow. So if you're worried about it, then let's go ahead and go a little slower. The one that frustrates me is when somebody's doing the 401k rollover thing because that money was already invested. So when they're like, okay, if I move it out, do I move it all back in right away? Well, yes, it was already invested. It was just invested worse than the way you're going to invest. So you're really on the same swing. You know, when you were a kid and you were on the swings, I don't know about you, but when I was on the swings, I always tried to swing higher than everybody else. Right. See if you could go all the way around. So if we got one swing that's going to go higher, why wouldn't I do that now? Like move to the better swing. If I think the IRA is a better swing than the swing that's not as good in my 401k. I need to just stay on the swing. I don't know if that analogy even makes sense. Should I talk more about swinging?

[Jesse Kramer]

Just, just keep swinging, Joe. Just keep swinging. Yeah.

[Jordan Grummet]

When I was me, another engineering joke.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

When I was a kid, people thought I was such a swinger. It was so incredible. Doc, how do you answer this? You brought up the question.

[Jesse Kramer]

So I'm a big fan of investing right away. I mean dollar cost averaging is fun, but you might end up dollar cost averaging and then the market might drop 50% the next day on the last day of your dollar cost averaging. So I think you could slice it anyway. I do love Jesse's idea. If you're anxious, dollar cost average. If you want somewhere in between, put 50% in and dollar cost average the rest. But as long as you're getting it in the market, you're winning. It's the people who keep holding and waiting and then never put it in that are the ones who end up losing long term.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, because you're betting against the market. And this is where just showing somebody that Ibbotson chart. Right, the chart of the market over long periods of time. If you don't know what an Ibbotson chart is, we'll have one in our show notes page at Stacking Benjamins. But regardless of the cape ratio or whatever, you know Jesse, when you're talking about it's now the time and timing the market, all you gotta do is take a look at a Ibison chart and go, would I rather play that game or rather know that 30 years from now when I want this money, it's going to be a lot higher because that's what Ibbotson chart shows you immediately, historically, through, you know, through all long periods of time. Paula, give us one more before we break for our amazing trivia competition kickoff.

[Paula Pant]

One, one more fear. Like one more worry.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

What's a fear that our communities have?

[Paula Pant]

I think a lot of people worry about Black Swan events. You know those low probability high magnitude events and rightfully so because they are very high magnitude if they were to come to fruition. There can be sometimes people who over worry about Black Swan events, meaning they overestimate the probability of those.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Ah, so is that how you mitigate that is by telling the audience that the probability is not high. But we do know it is going to happen again. It will happen at some point.

[Paula Pant]

Well, yeah, so. And I'm not just talking about market based Black Swan events. I'M talking about any type of life Black Swan event. Right. Like, I think a, like fire's where I live. Exactly. Which unfortunately many, many people are dealing with right now. Natural disasters. It could be getting run over by a truck. You know, it could be, oh, Doc has something to say about that.

[Jesse Kramer]

Not running over a truck. But go ahead and finish your thought and I'll jump in.

[Paula Pant]

I was like, he's got a story there. But, you know, any type of Black Swan event like that, whether it's something in your health or something in your community or something in the markets, I think people rightfully should protect themselves from the risk of ruin, but sometimes can be so worried about these that they over focus on the threat.

[Jesse Kramer]

Yeah. I just wanted to add in, it's, you know, it's interesting because we worry so much about the Black Swan events and then we don't pay attention to what I call White Swan events, which are devastating but highly often probable and likely events. So, like, getting a divorce is a white swan event that people don't want to do the prenup, they don't want to do the postnup. And yet, unlike a Black Swan event, lots and lots of people get divorced. So I love talking about the Black Swan events because I think it also shows how we actually don't mitigate against the obvious stuff. Good disability insurance, a really strong emergency fund. Thinking about divorce, I mean, all the things, thinking about, you know, a health crisis, like all these things that most likely will happen to either us or a loved one, we tend to be horrible planning for those.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, which is interesting, Jesse, because you work in a financial planning office. I mean, one of my favorite things to do when I was a financial planner, these what if scenarios. Right. Because I just love. To doc's point, I love this idea of what if something bad happens? We just start listing all these things and come up with these strategies. It's so it's actually in a little bit morbid way, kind of fun to do.

[Jordan Grummet]

I never could have guessed that I would drop my phone into the bathtub last night. Never saw it coming. Never in a million years. Total black swan out of nowhere. At first I thought a meteor might have come down into the tub that I could plan for. But the fact that it was my phone falling out of my sweatpants pocket. Never saw it coming. No, both. Both really good points. And yeah, to your question, Joe, it is. It's really fun. Sometimes I worry that people view it as, like, they'll view you as a pessimist. Like you're just be. You're a Debbie Downer. You're a gray sky Rochester non color.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Wearing, pessimist, non lime green wearing.

[Jordan Grummet]

Right.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah.

[Jordan Grummet]

It's a true funny story. One of my older brothers was doing. I forget exactly what he's doing. And my dad was kind of going through the whole, like, have you thought about this? Have you thought about that? Have you thought about this? And my brother called him out on it and was like, dad, all you ever do is think about the worst cases. So my dad paused and kind of tilted his hand and looked at him and just goes, okay, how about this for a productive question? What if everything works out and it's just the best thing possible? Almost like, like, of course. Well, we don't need to apply any critical thought to that answer. What a wonderful world. The critical thought has to be applied to these negative what if questions. And yeah, going back to your question, Joe, I usually try to couch it in, like, hey, this is a hard part of the job. It's not always easy conversations. But have you thought about estate planning? What if, you know, have you thought about your parents dying? What's going to happen in that situation? Have you thought about. And I try to empathize with people, but it's certainly important, isn't it?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It is so important. And we have one of our favorite episodes, most watched episodes, and listen to episodes every year is when we talk about fire safety, which Doug is so. It's so wild to me that a fire safety episode where we do the fire drill. And I've had so many, so many parents reach out to me going, we did that with our family afterwards. People aren't even parents going, I love the idea because I remember doing that when I was in school. Why don't do a fire drill now? And OG calls that in his financial planning practice. He calls it a fire drill. Paula.

[Paula Pant]

Oh, I was going to say I had a. I have a couple of friends who are firefighters for the Austin Fire Department. They came to visit and one of my friends was like, just casually, he was like, all right, where's your nearest emergency exit? And I'm like, I don't know. And. And he was like, wrong answer. Yeah. And he was, he was like, you don't know, shocked. He was like, well, because I live on the 20th floor of my apartment building.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah.

[Paula Pant]

He was like, well, if something happens, how do you. What's the nearest stairwell? And I'm like, I don't know. Never thought about it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Wow.

[Doug]

Paula, one question.

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah.

[Doug]

Did you become friends with this firefighter before or after you bought the calendar?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Inquiring minds want to know.

[Doug]

No comment.

[Paula Pant]

Came with the calendar.

[Doug]

Oh, nice. Bought the deluxe package.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

But immediately. Paul, I'm sure you went and found out where that stairwell was.

[Paula Pant]

I did, yeah.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah.

[Paula Pant]

Now I know.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah. I absolutely love that. This idea of what if it happens. Because, Jesse, to your dad's point, it is so much better. I love planning for the worst and then every time the best happens, I'm grateful. It's a super place to be. We're going to hear Jesse's amazing addition to this conversation and another fear that people have after our break. If you're brand new to the stacking Benjamin's community on these, quote, normal episodes, we have a year long trivia competition which we are starting today. And I wanted to start it today because our returning champion isn't here and we, we might be able to get off with somebody else leading the way. But I don't know because defending his honor today, Doc G from our brother podcast, Earn and Invest is playing for OG he's no longer playing for Mom. We're gonna just make it official, Jesse, no matter what you say. Frequent contributor Jesse Kramer's playing no longer for Mom. She's got no interest in this. He's playing on Team Jesse now. So we'll call Jesse and friends.

[Jordan Grummet]

Time to start trying Paula Pant in.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

The afford anything community. Who I know through the emails a lot of the afford anything community behind Paula Pant and hoping. Well, just, you know, hoping. Not sure what they're hoping for, Paula.

[Paula Pant]

But they're just 2025 could be the year it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It very well might be. So we run this all year long and the winner gets a dollar store trophy with an erasable front, which OG Just popped up behind him on a recent episode.

[Doug]

He used permanent sharpie marker on the erasable.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Maybe an embossing tool that, that beautiful dollar store trophy. But for every answer, we have to have a question, and Doug furnishes those each week. So, Doug, what's on tap to kick off the 2025 season?

[Doug]

Well, buckle up, stackers. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug. And welcome to the first actual roundtable trivia question of 2025. Do you smell that? You smell.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yes.

[Doug]

The air is filled with possibility and optimism and frankly, some unresolved questions. Like can Paula Pant finally capture at least second place in this competition? Or can Doc G miss our trivia answer by maybe less than a million? And of course, we're all wondering when Jesse Kramer will update his tech skills so he can low key cheat again and nail two questions in a row on the dot like he may or may not have done back in 2024. Look, I'm not. I'm not accusing you, Jesse. I'm just wondering out loud in a disapproving tone of voice if it could happen. Jesse Gates, a real thing in stacking Benjamin's country. So let's begin these games by talking about a big, audacious 2025 goal we have here on the show. We're gonna help some stacker out there become the next billionaire. That's a worthy goal, right? So here's today's question. After we plus one this invite to the billionaire club, how many billionaires will there be in the world? I'll be back with the answer right after I find out if a really successful lingerie store owner would be called a Brazilianaire. There's a term I probably just coined and should patent TM on that. Everybody tm.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, Doug, either that or somebody from Brazil maybe. Could be that, too.

[Doug]

Either way. But which one would you rather think about?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Could be either somebody from Brazil I would rather talk about. So let's kick this off. We go in reverse order of last year's standings, which means that Doc G is going to go first, Jesse will go second. Paula gets to go third. Number of billionaires plus our new billionaire. So number of billionaires right now plus one more equals what number is that?

[Jesse Kramer]

Me. Am I up?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You are up.

[Jesse Kramer]

Put me in, coach. All right, so I think in the US we're in the hundreds, right? Four or five hundred. I thought something like that. And so now you're asking the world. I'm going to say 3542.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

3542. Very specific. To kick off the year.

[Jesse Kramer]

I wanted something specific. No reason.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yes, Jesse. I love Jesse Gate, by the way. Very, very big. Like people in New England and. What was that called? Football Gator. Yes. As part of Bill's nation. Jesse, I'm sure you know inflate gate.

[Jordan Grummet]

Oh, yeah. Huge Tom Brady fans here. Well, actually, there's an episode last year where I believe I quoted the number of US Billionaires. And Doc G. I think you were pretty dar close to on the money. If I expand it out to the globe, though, I'm going to go a little lower than the dock and I'm going to say 1 71. 1071 is my guess, neighbor. Doug, book it.

[Jesse Kramer]

Look at Dano.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

That's what it says right here On Google is 1071. All right, Paula, you got Paula, you've got 1071. Jordan has 3542.

[Paula Pant]

Well, when I heard the question, my first thought was a thousand billionaires. Only because I kind of like the contrasting orders of magnitude. And so for the case of capturing the under, I will go 1070.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

What could go wrong?

[Paula Pant]

1070.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

All right, we've got 3542 from Jordan. Jesse next up with 1071. Paula takes him out at the knees with 1070. Is it Paula pants year? Is Jesse on the nose? Is Doc G within a million? We're gonna find out in just a second.

[Jesse Kramer]

I am.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

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[Jordan Grummet]

Hey, I'm Ryan Reynolds. Recently I asked Mint Mobile's legal team if big wireless companies are allowed to raise prices due to inflation. They said yes. And then when I asked if raising prices technically violates those onerous two year contracts, they said, what the are you talking about, you insane Hollywood. So to recap, we're cutting the price of mint unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month. Give it a [e-mail] switch.

[Paula Pant]

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month.

[Jordan Grummet]

New customers on first three month plan only.

[Paula Pant]

Taxes and fees, extra speed slower above 40 gigabytes, et cetera.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Jordan, you opened this up with a guess of 3542. Both Jesse and Paula said nay, nay. They think it's fewer. What do you say?

[Jesse Kramer]

I say that I'm going to be closer than usual. So I call that a win no matter what.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Do you want to do the speech right now? Just get it out of the way?

[Jesse Kramer]

Pretty much. I've won already, regardless of who really wins. So we're good here.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It's impossible. You'd be off by a million. It would be fun though if it was 1 million 300. 3,000.

[Jesse Kramer]

3,540. Yes. Three. That would be really ironic.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yes. And then Jesse 1071 sounded like a nice guess until Paula got there.

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah, that's okay. That's okay. I didn't want to divulge too much of my clandestine information before. For some reason, the number of like 460 is sticking out to me. For US based billionaires and I gotta think there's more US based billionaires than other countries. But like all other countries combined. No, probably not. So I don't know, just thousand, you know, 1071. I don't know, hoping it's a little bit higher than that.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Just the voice in your head, Jesse, I love this self talk, like back and forth. It is an amazing thing to watch, Paula. 1070.

[Paula Pant]

You know, if it's true that there's maybe somewhere around 400, 500 US based billionaires, I would have to believe that the US would have approximately half of the world's billionaires. So yeah, I'm feeling good about being close to the 1000 mark.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, you know, who knows? I can't believe I'm saying this out loud. Doug knows. Of course Doug knows Doug, who's taken home the first win of 2025.

[Doug]

Hey there stackers. I'm billionaire maker and Brazilian air believer Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug. You know, Jesse Kramer politely cautioned me during the break not to talk too much about Jesse Gate 24. He said if I didn't shut up about it, he'd tell everyone that I was the guy behind the Doug coin debacle. I tried to tell him it had nothing to do with that except lending my perfectly proportioned face to the coin. He seemed to understand, but then again he never really put the baseball bat down. So tensions are still a bit escalated here in the basement. Well, Jesse, surprised you didn't totally nail today's trivia question, which was how many billionaires are in the world after we plus one? That number. Well tell you this. The number is 1,712 more than Paula Guest. 1,711 more than you guessed and just 760 less than Doc.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh my God. Oh my God.

[Doug]

The correct answer is 2,781 plus one.

[Jesse Kramer]

Yeah, baby.

[Doug]

Stacker. And this absolutely sucks because it's horrible.

[Jesse Kramer]

OG Ends up ahead anyway by one.

[Doug]

It is a total catastrophe.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

We tried to plan this out to have Doc G play for OG so it wouldn't happen.

[Doug]

What a nightmare.

[Jesse Kramer]

This is my year, baby.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

This is my year and it bites us in the ass. The guy goes to the Caymans and we can't. We still can't. Oh man.

[Doug]

So 2,781 billionaires in the world. And by the end of 25 we'll have one more more because we're going to get a stacker there. But that's your answer.

[Jesse Kramer]

I, I volunteer to be the one you get there.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It probably will Be you. I mean, all those book sales.

[Doug]

New book.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

All those.

[Jesse Kramer]

All those book sales.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It's definitely.

[Jesse Kramer]

It's going to make it at least a million.

[Doug]

Yeah.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Do you know.

[Jesse Kramer]

I'm sorry, a billion.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You know how many billionaires there are out there writing books? Yes.

[Jesse Kramer]

So many. So many.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

A couple more than there are podcasters. All right, let's dive into the second half of this shindig. As mom says, Jesse, what's another thing that we worry about is uber nerds that maybe we can help people. People calm down about a little bit.

[Jordan Grummet]

Question for you. Does it have to be an uber nerd concern, or can it just be a concern that I see out? Okay, okay.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, I like the one that Doc said. Yeah, the one that Doc said is uber nerd. Share that. But, you know, my mom recently asked that. She's like, what if I take this money and put it in the market? It goes down right away.

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah. I think another one that might carve out some new territory here for us today is just the fear of scams and frauds in general, or just this idea. I hear this a lot where it's like, you know what? The stock market is rigged. The stock market's a scam. Other people are pulling the strings. They're just, you know, they're waiting for a whole bunch of suckers like me to put my money in, and then they're going to pull the rug out from under me and take everything away. Granted, there are obviously are. There have been investments in the past, unregulated investments, Ponzi schemes, things like that, truly fraudulent schemes that people have heard about or are aware of. Bernie Madoff certainly did no favors for us, did he? But I think many people out there, they confuse the volatile nature of the stock market or just the volatile nature of investments in general, which is a feature, not a bug. And instead they come to the conclusion that the market itself must be a rigged game.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, let's dive into that. I mean, Jordan, two points. Movies like the Wolf of Wall street don't. Don't calm anybody's fears, right? The whole Jordan Belfort thing. And then, you know, when you look at the whole Reddit thing around Gamestop, right? And all of the people going, look at what they did. There's more shares that are being like, how. How are they engineering this so the big guys still win while the rest of us lose? Like, there's a lot of people thinking exactly what Jesse's talking about.

[Jesse Kramer]

So my take on this, and this is a big reason why I think People also like index funds. Is what we're really talking about here, I think, is efficiency. Right. So the idea of efficiency is. Is what's happening in the market. Are the changes we're seeing accurate of what's really happening, or are they a momentary glitch? Are we seeing low prices because, for instance, the stocks are valued low? Are we seeing low prices because it's a glitch, it's inefficient, and there's knowledge out there that we don't have. And eventually we could get that knowledge and realize that that's a low price and we should get in or get out, depending on that issue. The bigger the market, the more efficient it is, the more likely that the general knowledge out there is the correct knowledge. So it is true when you're talking about investing in something which very few people invest in, there's a lot more room for inefficiency. Maybe you just don't have all the knowledge. Maybe you don't know what's going on. But when we're talking about these bigger markets like index funds and even equities in general, it's such a big market, it tends to be efficient. In other words, the market tends to, long term, move in the direction that it should. That's reflective of the values of the companies that are being represented. And so I guess I would tell someone who's worried that there's a hoax going on is the less investors you have in something, the more likelihood there could be a hoax going on. Whereas these really big markets tend to be really efficient, meaning that the price long term actually matches the value. Does that make sense?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It does. It does make sense. Paula, did you worry about the Gamestop thing and all the Reddit talk that there was something nefarious going on under the hood there involving Robinhood and some of these big hedge funds?

[Paula Pant]

Well, there was that controversy, and I'm forgetting the details right now, but there was some controversy around Robinhood would allow you to buy, but it wouldn't allow you to sell sell or something to that effect. So I remember also the short float.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Being bigger than it should be.

[Paula Pant]

Right, right. But that was so. I mean, that particular event was so in the headlines and so closely monitored. I remember it was the one time that the AOC and Ted Cruz actually agreed on something which was both were like, hey, we need to look into Robin Hood. That particular event was so closely monitored by not just the general public, but by elected leaders and by regulators. And there were so many layers of protection there that I wasn't you know, was a little fired up on social media about it, but I wasn't actually like worried in any deep way. I think where we have greater risk is in markets that have less regulation, such as cryptocurrency.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Jesse, do you worry about something systemic, that there's a bigger risk than just this maybe one time thing or just Robinhood, that there's, you know, the people on Wall street playing by different rules than you and I? Well, let's, let's go to the next level. How about this? How about the people in Congress who have these phenomenal returns in their portfolios?

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah. So that goes back and Doc G used the word efficiency. And my personal definition or understanding might just be this might just be a semantic difference from what Doc G was saying. But is the market's price reflective of all publicly available information or is there some sort of hidden information reflected in the price? Because, and what that really means is do some investors know more than me? Do they know secrets about a company that the company hasn't published yet? Does that mean that I'm just, I'm not playing with a full deck and of course I'm not going to buy the stock at the correct price or at the, at the truly reflective price. That's how I think of efficiency. It's a function of the information that's out there and whether it's publicly or privately available. And what you're referring to there, Joe, is if I'm in Congress or if I'm a senator and I just sat through a top secret meeting that I have security clearance for or just a meeting that I'm privileged to and other people aren't, and I know that some contract is going to company XYZ or I know that some tax law is going to start affecting company abc. Well, if I go out and I trade on that information, that sure seems like, you know, if that person was working, if that senator was working inside the corporation, that would be called insider trading and that is a felony. We have laws against that. But if they're not working for the corporation, but they happen to be sitting in the right meeting on Capitol Hill and they trade on that information, it doesn't seem fair, but yeah, it certainly riles me up if you can't tell.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, and I think the big question here is that, you know, a lot of people say that, yeah, okay, that part of the system's rig truly doesn't affect you. I mean, truly doesn't affect, it does affect my ability to keep up with them, but it doesn't affect my ability to participate in the market.

[Jordan Grummet]

That's true, but I mean, it doesn't make it right.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Not at all.

[Jordan Grummet]

The same. Right at the same time. Like, it is not justified. And you're right. Like, does it prevent me from investing or do I let that information affect the way I invest? No, I don't. No, I don't. But it's certainly a problem.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Jesse, you were talking about insider trading as somebody worked at the company. Insider trading is a real thing, and it isn't always illegal. Like, insiders are allowed to trade and they have to publish their trades. Have you ever, Paula, made a trade because you saw some insiders making that trade?

[Paula Pant]

No, in fact, I've. I've never looked at information that insiders have published. Where do you get that? Do you just Google, like, what you can.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

You can go to cnbc.com Yahoo Finance, wherever, look at the board of directors, and they are required to publish whether they've been buying or whether they've been selling. And by the way, what's interesting to look at with that is if they're. If they're buying or selling. My goodness, you have a whiner in the background there, Paula. We've got, if they're doing it the same number of shares, the same amount of money, maybe once a quarter. I know that's a financial plan in action, right? Yeah. But if they're doing it irregularly, it becomes much more interesting because then I believe there might be something that they know that was actually the entire reason people have been fans of the show for a while. The only reason I bought Lumen stock was because the new CEO that came in bought a crapload of Lumen stock, and then it turned into the worst company ever. Then it turned out I was brilliant, and now it turns out I'm somewhere in the middle. And if I don't sell soon, I will be dumb again because it just has continued to go down. But as I've also said, I didn't put much money. I think I put, you know, 500 bucks in it. So it wasn't going to be the end of the world for Joe if Lumen goes under.

[Jesse Kramer]

Doc, doesn't some of this argument fail to recognize the fact that market beta is kind of free? Right. Average market returns are free to anyone who wants them. It's true. If you want Alpha, right? If you want above market returns, A, you could rig the system, right, with things like insider trading, or B, you could be incredibly lucky. Or I guess C, we could say maybe there are a small number of people with a huge amount of skill that will get them alpha. But regardless of all that, to say the whole system is rigged ignores the fact that beta is free. Right. You get the s and P500 index or you get a total market index and that's it. It's free.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

And I do, I do. Jesse, I like that position of, you know what? Some. I feel like a lot of us ask our portfolio to add alpha to our life and we don't ask that of our career, of our life, of our. Of other areas.

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah. I think your energy is better spent seeking out. If we're using the alpha and beta terms, it's your energy is better spent seeking out alpha in other arenas. 100% agree. Going back to what you were saying there, Doc G. The whole idea of beta is free. It is. I do have this question or like thinking back to whether we're talking about market efficiency or the index fund bubble or anything like that, or black swan events, I mean, there are these ideas of just because we have an efficient market and just because beta is free, that isn't the same thing as saying that the price is correct. It just means that the price is reflective of available information and. Right. I mean, and that's kind of getting back to Robert Shiller, irrational exuberance, or even Warren Buffett who does say, no, of course the market's not efficient. Look at what I've done and look at what a lot of other people have done. It's just that for you and I to try to think that we have more information to be right more often than the market in general, that I agree with you 100% and say, yeah, just take the market performance, take the beta and move on to other aspects of your life.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

But I even think traders, Jesse, who do this all day long because they know how dangerous it is when you think you have all the information are experts. The good ones that I've talked to are experts at going, you know what, what's the chance that I don't have all the information where the average person who's a, a stacker, a best interest or an investor afforder, like all of our communities I think are from the people that I've talked to, less likely. When you feel this good feeling about something to go, there's got to be information. I don't have. Like the best traders do that. We talked to a guy named Jack Schwager who profiles these amazing investors who beat the market over and over and over and over. And I love Jack's quote, which was the market is not efficient. To your point, Jesse, he goes, but for 99.9 of us, we should pretend it is.

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah. Yes, that's great.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

We, we should think like it is because it's a hell of a lot of work to go the other way and you don't want to, you know, the juice isn't going to be worth the squeeze when there's so many other things that we, we might be able to do. Paula, bring this home. Give us one more. How about that?

[Paula Pant]

One more fear worry, actually.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, one more fear.

[Paula Pant]

Can I, can I also just share my thought as you guys have been talking about the, the market is that quote, about how in the short term the market is a voting machine and in the long term it's a weighing machine.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, that's great.

[Paula Pant]

Yeah. I forget who it might have been. Charlie Munger or somebody, but that was what was going through my mind as I was listening to it.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Sounds like Charlie Munger because it goes right along with that Warren Buffett quote about Mr. Market.

[Paula Pant]

Right.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Mr. Market from day to day doesn't know what he thinks. One day he thinks it's overvalued, next day he thinks it's undervalued. But over the long term, Mr. Market's. Yeah, right on.

[Paula Pant]

Right.

[Jordan Grummet]

I think it's Ben Graham, the intelligent investor. It's from that book. Both Mr. Market and that quote are Gramisms.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Well, there you go, Paul and I got the leaves. Jesse goes to the root.

[Paula Pant]

Nice.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Right on the same family tree. Yeah. Paula, what's one more fear?

[Paula Pant]

I think overly obsessing about asset allocation. And actually to go back to the beginning of this conversation, particularly in the spirit of people now kind of distrusting AN S&P 500 or a total stock market index, one of the outcomes that can come from that is just getting so granular and so obsessive about asset allocation that it starts missing the forest for the trees. And, you know, and then, and basically at that point, you're worrying about the wrong things.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Paula, we can't bring that up right now because I'm trying to get people to worry about asset allocation a little bit. We can worry about it just a little bit. Like I'm speaking to that part of the audience that doesn't think about it at all and thinks it's baloney and you shouldn't do anything about it.

[Paula Pant]

Like, come on, maybe we come to the Goldilocks scenario, right? Like, this porridge is too hot. The porridge is too cold. Oh, this porridge is Just Right.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

But to your point, I mean, between the fire community who says, don't think about it at all, which drives me crazy, and then the people who, like, I, I was, I was helping someone look at their portfolio today and they had like part of their money in a Japan fund. And I was like, why do you have a Japan fund? Because they're, they got this granular asset allocation, you know, that was way too granular. Like, why, why are we not at least opening that up and just being Asia?

[Paula Pant]

Right?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Just, you know, why are we making the bet on. Bet on one country, Jesse? Do you guys see that in the practice that you work in, people over obsessing with asset allocation?

[Jordan Grummet]

Occasionally. One thing I will say is generally the people who were working with us, they don't. This is probably true of a lot of financial planners where it's like, the reason why you're seeking out professional help is because you might not want to really care about your asset allocation all that much. You want to focus on other areas of your life. But when it comes to my podcast audience or my blog readers and who are largely DIYers, that's where I'll get comments in saying, hey, Jesse, you know, I started this portfolio out thinking I'd be 70% stocks, 30% bonds, and you know, what happened last year. And I'm, I'm, I just, I see it drifting. It's closer to 7,129 right now. And I'm just, I'm growing a little concerned. Right, or just questions like that. I think we're all probably familiar with questions here similar to that. And that's where as Paula set the stage in my head, I was just thinking, they're missing the forest for the trees. And as soon as she said that, I was like, yes, that is the perfect thing to say. It truly is missing the bigger picture for the trees. But a lot of people also just say, what is wrong with 100% VTSAX, VTI, 100% stocks? For every single part of my life, no matter how old I am or what my goals are. What is wrong with that? And that's also the wrong approach. It, it just simply is.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Paul, I'm going to meet you halfway on two areas. Number one is somebody just starting out who's worried about asset allocation. That drives me crazy, like, just starting out. Those are the people, Jesse, that need to be doing the VTS X.

[Paula Pant]

They're like, oh, I've got $1,000 to invest. How do I allocate it?

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Right? I want to Buy five stocks or whatever. And then the second thing is though, and I'll meet you part way here. I don't think asset allocation, I like that first word, asset picking the actual thing inside of the asset class, which Markowitz.

[Jordan Grummet]

Security selection.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Security selection, yes, security selection. Yeah. Like Markowitz proved, it's the asset class generally that matters far more than picking the specific stock inside of that asset class. So if you are going to worry about something, worrying about, and I find that newbies really worry about what stock to buy, then I think, Jesse, they graduate to where you are, which is. Or Paula, what you're talking about, which is then they graduate to worrying about am I 30% or 29% in this asset class, which is beautiful.

[Jesse Kramer]

I also think we kind of get it wrong based on our age too. So I think with young people the biggest return for them is going to be the money they put in through accumulating wealth through working or their businesses, et cetera. So for someone just beginning putting money in something like VTS X makes a lot of sense because honestly, where they're really going to build their wealth is how much money they put in. Now take someone who's in their 40s or 50s and they're starting to think about making less money and decumulating them. Decumulating. That's when asset allocation can actually really start changing things. And I think this is a lot of what you Joe talk about and Palm Meerman talks about long term, when you're talking about decumulation, having the right asset mix could possibly lead to much higher withdrawal rates. And so I think for young people it's like, dude, make lots of money and just make sure it's in the market, make sure it's in something decent. But as you get older, then it makes a lot more sense to start really paying attention to those asset allocations. If you choose to be someone who's really trying to improve things on the margin, like there are going to be some people who are lazy like me and they're going to say, well I get it, but I'm not interested in that extra, you know, half a percent or percent. I'm okay with doing less work. But for the people who really are interested and excited, that's really when you want to start looking at things.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I think scientifically you get above $100,000 saved, that's when you should get more, a little more granular. But we'll leave that for another day. That's another part of the battle that we'll do another day. Maybe on Afford Anything. Paula, where you and I think have that discussion coming up. We're going to get granular.

[Paula Pant]

We do, we do, yes.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Let's transition to that. Let's find out. That's a good place to leave this discussion. Let's talk about what's going on where you guys are. Paula, kick this off. What's going on on Afford Anything?

[Paula Pant]

On the Afford Anything podcast, you join me for a discussion. This is actually kind of a series of discussions that we've been having for a while about asset allocation, about the efficient frontier. If you want to get beyond simply VTS X and chill and you want to start asset allocating in something more than just that total stock market index fund or more than just the s and P500, what should you do? You know, should you construct a four fund portfolio, a ten fund portfolio? How much effort will it take? How do you determine which funds to buy? Joe, you walk us through all of that. So. And you do so sort of over a series of episodes and each one kind of keeps getting better and better. So those are all of our recent Q and A episodes.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I'm just trying to troll all those vts axers one at a time as much as I possibly can. And that's at the Afford Anything show.

[Paula Pant]

Yes, on the Afford Anything podcast.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Absolutely. And that episode, by the way, that you're talking about, specifically the one where we kind of walk through it. Step one, step two, step three. You really want to be in the afford anything YouTube channel?

[Paula Pant]

Yes, absolutely.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

For that one.

[Paula Pant]

YouTube.com afford anything. Because there's charts, there's graphs where we.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Go all out, a lot of graphics. We'll go to the best selling author last.

[Paula Pant]

Very graphic.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Jesse, what's going on at the Best Interest Podcast? Man, you've got a big. Can we talk about your milestone coming up first?

[Jordan Grummet]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, well, we've got a few interesting. Because Doc G's episode came out today. Awesome discussion. But in a couple episodes we've got episode 100, the Big Century.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

This is so great.

[Jordan Grummet]

A century of episodes for the Best Interest Podcast. You know, it started with. I mean, the funny thing is we joke about recording in the basement here. I think my early episodes, I was actually in the basement. Certainly sounded like I was in a basement. I also sounded like I didn't know how to speak the English language. And here we are 100 episodes later. So it's been a big journey, which.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Shows if Jesse can do it, anybody can do it. Actually, to be serious for a second, the average podcast Lasts seven episodes. And so to reach a big, big number, like 100 episodes. And by the way, to see the guest lineup you've had, those first hundred episodes has been. That's, It's. It's phenomenal. It's a.

[Jordan Grummet]

Thank you. Thank you, Joe.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

It is great, man.

[Jesse Kramer]

Especially the last one.

[Jordan Grummet]

That's true. That's true. My mom. My mom always said I was about 14 times better than average. And here we are today.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, the math humor runs in the family then, Jesse. Huh? Oh, yeah. Is it a family of engineers? Is that.

[Jordan Grummet]

It runs deep. My dad was a biology teacher. My mom was an English teacher.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, that's a wild wow, meeting of the minds.

[Jordan Grummet]

And I ended up like this.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Yeah, you ended up on the Stacking Benjamin Show. Your parents like, what happened, Doc G? What's going on besides, you know, being on the. The amazing book tour? What's going on at Earn and Invest?

[Jesse Kramer]

Well, you know, after winning the first trivia of the year on the Stacking Benjamin Show, I was thinking of packing it in and doing nothing for the rest of the year. Actually, that was. That was it. I'm done. But if I happen to go forward with the episodes, I have planned yesterday's episode, and I'm saying yesterday because we're. We're recording this, it's going to be in the future. But actually, today Joe and I did a community episode where we talked about a Yahoo Finance Marist poll that they did of 3,000 banked individuals and asked them how satisfied they were with their savings in 2024. You can hear us discuss the results with Community member Matt Sly, as well as Josal Sehaya and I. We tried to do a community episode once a month. This one is coming a little early, but I'm excited to have this conversation. That's on Earn and Invest.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Wait a minute. You still do Community episodes?

[Jesse Kramer]

I still do once a month, usually the last Thursday of the month. But since I have some rewind episodes coming up, this is the second to the last Thursday of the month.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

This. This month I was in a forum where I read somebody saying that, like, Doc G used to do those Community episodes. I'm like, when did he quit? He never stopped. There hasn't been one in a month. It's a good time. And to give people just a little preview of that doc, People generally not.

[Jesse Kramer]

Not, not feeling it, not so happy with their savings. Kind of pessimistic, but I think we gave it a, you know, optimistic spin towards the end.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

We did. And how can you not with Matt, who's a great community member of yours and such a, such a nice guy. And that's on Earth Invest. All right, that's going to do it for today. Thanks for hanging out with us, everybody on YouTube. Thank you also to our contributors. Doug is also going to thank our contributors in a moment and we'll see you guys back on Monday. Doug, what are our big three takeaways from today's show?

[Doug]

Well, Joe, first, take some advice from the single nicest and most passive, non violent contributor on the show, Jesse Kramer. He told us exactly the right time to invest. I was listening, Jesse, but I mean, I was a little distracted. Could you tell us again when the right time is to invest?

[Jordan Grummet]

Whether you're an alpha or a beta, it's okay to be a little dingy.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Might not have answered the question, but it sure was good.

[Doug]

We'll take it. Second, take this from our resident crazy cat lady, Paula Pant. She said people worry too much about Black Swan events. Paula, I think you're uniquely qualified to tell us how Black Swan events are exactly like a cat's butt. Can you walk us through that again?

[Paula Pant]

Absolutely. Actually, Black Swan events and cat's butts are similar in three ways. So both are hard to control, both are totally unpredictable, and both can be incredibly disruptive surprises.

[Jesse Kramer]

I think you have to end there, Doug. I don't think we can add any more to that.

[Doug]

But I do have a big lesson. What I learned was that if you want to become a Brazilianaire, don't try getting into ladies lingerie because there are no verified underwear billionaires. However, there are at least 33 billionaires in Brazil. Either way, my new term is a thing and I just trademarked it. Thanks to Dr. Jordan Grumman for joining us today. You'll find Doc G's earn and invest podcast wherever you're listening to us right now. You'll also find Jesse Kramer's Best Interest podcast on whatever platform. You're listening to us right now as well. And we're going to include links in our show notes for both shows@stacking benjamins.com and finally, let's thank Paula Pant from Afford Anything for joining us today. You'll find her fabulous podcast, Afford Anything.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

I think we ought to thank Paula's Pant. Paula's Pant, Paula's Cat. Paula's Cat pants.

[Doug]

Yeah. This show is the property of SB Podcasts, LLC, Copyright 2025 and is created by Joe Saul Sehive. Joe gets help from a few of our neighborhood friends. You'll find out about our awesome [e-mail] along with the show notes and how you can find us on YouTube and all the usual social media spots. Come say hello.

[Joe Saul-Sehy]

Oh, yeah.

[Doug]

And before I go, not only should you not take advice from these nerds, don't take advice from people you don't know. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any financial decisions, speak with a real financial advisor. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug, and we'll see you next time back here at the Stacking Benjamin show.