What Are YOU Worried About Financially? (LIVE From FinCon 2025) SB1737

Summary

The Stacking Benjamins Show

Episode: What Are YOU Worried About Financially? (LIVE From FinCon 2025) SB1737
Date: September 19, 2025
Hosts: Joe Saul-Sehy (A), Paula Pant (D, "Afford Anything"), Jesse Kramer (B, "Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors"), Matthew Tarr (E, "CoastFI Couple")
Location: Live from FinCon, Portland, Oregon

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Overview

In this lively, laugh-filled episode recorded live on the floor at FinCon 2025, Joe Saul-Sehy assembles an all-star panel of financial content creators—Paula Pant, Jesse Kramer, and Matthew Tarr—to talk about what’s keeping real people and financial communities up at night. They cover the hot-button financial worries of 2025: high housing prices, interest rates, the threat of recession, and the complexities of renting vs. owning. The panel delivers their nuanced, sometimes humorous, and always approachable takes on how to grapple with uncertainty, invest for the long haul, and find balance between frugality and enjoying life.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The FinCon Experience and Financial Content Creation

[02:36–11:00]

• The hosts share what makes FinCon special—a collaborative space where money nerds, podcasters, and creators mingle, share ideas, and riff on money in fun, organic ways.
• Paula Pant: Notes the diversity of content mediums this year: newsletters, video, and the resurgence of written financial advice.
  • “There’s been a really, really good mix of people here.” [06:47]
• Jesse Kramer: Describes FinCon as a “rising tide that lifts all ships,” benefiting both creators and their audiences.
• Big takeaway: Whether a creator or not, everyone should invest in honing their skills and seek out industry learning opportunities.

**2. Housing Market Anxiety: Priced Out, Renting vs. Owning, and "ZIRP"

[14:20–26:18]

• Paula Pant reports intense worry among her audience about being “priced out” of the housing market due to soaring prices and high interest rates.
  • “People who don't yet own a home... feel like they've been priced out of the market. Home prices overall are up about 50% higher than they were... relative to 2019 levels.” [14:20]
  • She defines ZIRP: "zero interest rate policy," and notes rates are unlikely to return there soon.
• Matthew Tarr (CoastFI Couple) advises flexibility: "I think renting right now is probably the preferred option for me personally, when I talk to people." [15:33]
  • He cautions against becoming “house poor” and urges listeners to make the math work before buying.
• Jesse Kramer explains the supply crunch post-2008 and the huge leap in required down payments as prices rise.
  • "Understanding your math on owning is unbelievably hard because there are so many variables that you don't think of." [22:21]
• Decision Factors: Flexibility, true costs of ownership (maintenance, taxes, insurance), how long you’ll live somewhere, and local price-to-rent ratios are essential.
• Notable Moment: The panel jokes about Jeff Bezos renting in Manhattan for financial efficiency—even billionaires should sometimes rent!
• Consensus: There’s no one-size-fits-all answer—think deeply about your plans, time horizon, and all costs.

**3. Balancing Frugality vs. Enjoyment

[26:07–26:56]

• Matthew on overcoming extreme frugality:
  • “I'm totally guilty of being as frugal as possible... It was made dating really hard. Right. Nobody wants to really be with that guy. Luckily my wife... made me stop and smell the roses a little bit.” [26:18]
  • He now prioritizes spending on what truly brings him and his family joy (e.g., date nights, lawn care).
• Hosts agree: Sometimes spending money for time or happiness is well worth it.

4. Interest Rates: Are They Really High? Mortgage Realities and Emotional Backlash

[27:06–29:30]

• Paula Pant:
  • “Historically speaking, no [these are not high rates]. But... that doesn't affect how you emotionally feel.”
  • She empathizes with listeners who missed the “music” of sub-3% mortgages while their peers locked them in.
• Jesse Kramer:
  • Vividly contrasts his mortgage at 6.5% with a peer’s 2.75%—the payment difference is huge and stings emotionally.
  • “I don't care that people paid 14% in 1982. Why should I care about that?” [28:18]
• Joe: Highlights the “generational misunderstanding” when older folks compare past struggles to today’s realities.

5. Buy Now or Wait?—Refinance Perspective

[29:30–31:07]

• Jesse: Encourages locking in a home purchase if it works for your life, rather than attempting to time interest rates. You can refinance if rates drop.
  • “At the end of the day, I still don't view a personal home as an investment. I view it as a place to provide shelter for your family.” [30:20]
• Matthew: Wants flexibility, not being house poor, and is open to geo-arbitrage (considering moving abroad).

6. Market Uncertainty & Recession Fears: CoastFI, Asset Allocation, and Emotional Survival

[32:45–54:47]

• Matthew Tarr:
  • Listeners are worried about both AI job loss and an overdue recession.
  • "We have no idea, can't predict the future, but there is this feeling of uncertainty. ...for new listeners that are roughly my age, I'm 39... we've had a little sense of recency bias. I'm expecting a 10%+ growth."
  • Wonders if 10% expected returns and CoastFI assumptions are safe.
• Jesse Kramer:
  • Calls out historically high S&P500 P/E ratios indicating overvaluation.
  • Educates on the 4% rule, PE ratios, importance of maintaining a conservative bond/cash allocation close to retirement.
    • “The market has crashed before, we've had recessions before. The problem... is that idea of reminding people of history might not make me feel better today.” [36:34]
  • Suggests a 33–40% bond allocation for new retirees, provoking friendly debate.
• Paula Pant:
  • “I will actually speak up in defense of Jesse’s position.” [40:45]
  • Adds, even financially literate people underestimate the complexity of drawdown and sequence-of-returns risks.
• Notable Moment:
  • Joe’s “standard deviation” explanation for understanding portfolio ups/downs.
    • “You might not know what standard deviation is, but this... means minus 15 is going to be what this will do and it's going to be normal... Let's say this. You have a million dollars and you just lost $150,000. And that same person goes, oh, that's not fine. That is not fine at all.” [44:08]
• Emotional Survival & Not Selling at Lows:
  • “Selling to survive”: how panic-selling feels like a survival response.

Memorable Quote:

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched.” — Jesse Kramer quoting Mike Tyson [45:28]

7. Practical Responses During a Downturn

[51:06–54:50]

• Matthew (CoastFI): Advocates holding through downturns, maintaining 2 years’ cash as buffer; still in growth mode with no bonds.
• Jesse: Would focus on keeping income and buying low, not selling.
• Paula: Would “free up as much cash as possible to buy the dip,” including curtailing nonessentials if needed. The more severe the downturn, the more excited she is to invest for the future.
• All agree: Don’t sell into fear. Stick to a well-formed investment policy.
  • “The thing I hate hearing online is when people go, the market just went down. How do we react to this?” — Joe Saul-Sehy [54:46]
• Fire Drill Analogy:
  • Jesse: “You practice when times are calm so that you know what to do when times actually get bad.” [54:48]

8. Healthcare as a Retirement Worry: ACA, BaristaFI & Long-Term Care

[55:50–62:47]

• Jesse:
  • Increasing questions from would-be retirees (especially early retirees) about navigating healthcare: ACA, Medicare, IRMAA, private plans.
• Paula:
  • Is going down the Medicare rabbit hole for the first time—points out how even financial experts routinely underestimate healthcare complexity and misinformation.
  • “There are such misaligned incentives when it comes to Medicare information.” [57:47]
• Matthew:
  • His wife just left her job, and they navigated the ACA marketplace for insurance—expensive, and the main risk in retiring early.
  • BaristaFI (“bus driver FI”) is becoming more attractive because even part-time, benefits jobs like Starbucks or school bus driving solve the healthcare gap.
  • “My wife left her job. We’re driving past [the bus driver job] banner every day going, ooh, that’s looking awfully tempting.” [60:07]
• Jesse:
  • Discusses the difficulty and potential costs of long-term care insurance, and the self-insure vs. buy-insurance debate.
    • “Do you self-insure and build it into your retirement plan?” [61:40]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the true cost of homeownership:
  “Understanding your math on owning is unbelievably hard because there are so many variables you don't think of.” — Jesse Kramer [22:21]
• On emotional whiplash when missing out on low mortgages:
  “All your friends locked in mortgages at [2.5%] back when homes were cheaper... you feel like the music stopped and you're the one left standing.” — Paula Pant [27:32]
• On the importance of not over-fixating on saving:
  “What is it that makes my life enjoyable? Well, I'm gonna pay for those things. I'm gonna put more effort into those things.” — Matthew Tarr [26:18]
• On avoiding rash decisions in downturns:
  “Everyone has a plan until they get punched.” — Jesse Kramer, quoting Mike Tyson [45:28]
• On healthcare confusion:
  “There are such misaligned incentives when it comes to Medicare information.” — Paula Pant [57:47]
• On creating content about unsexy topics:
  “Even if you believe yourself to be financially literate, you might have a kind of a big oversight—in the world of healthcare... these arenas are not clickbait headlines.” — Paula Pant [62:47]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:36 | Show opens live at FinCon, crew introductions | | 06:10 | What is FinCon? Reaching audiences and the content creator experience | | 14:20 | Listener anxieties: high housing prices, interest rates, “priced out” | | 17:40 | Down payment hurdles and housing affordability explained | | 22:21 | The (true) cost of homeownership vs. renting discussion | | 26:18 | Balancing frugality with spending on happiness | | 27:06 | Are interest rates really high? Emotional impact of missing low rates | | 32:45 | Worry about AI, recession, & market downturn among CoastFI audience | | 34:47 | Overvalued stock market and the risk of recession | | 40:45 | Defending the case for conservative asset allocation at retirement | | 44:08 | Standard deviation & understanding ups/downs in real portfolios | | 45:28 | “Everyone has a plan until they get punched.” (Tyson quote) | | 51:06 | Personal strategies for the next downturn (hold, don't sell, buy the dip)| | 54:46 | The importance of investment policy statements and not reacting impulsively| | 54:48 | Fire drill analogy for investing and risk management | | 55:50 | Healthcare as a major early-retirement worry; ACA, BaristaFI explained | | 61:25 | Long-term care insurance: to self-insure or not? |

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Panelist Show Plugs & Wrap-Up

• Jesse Kramer: “Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors” expands to three episodes per month, including AMAs (64:34).
• Paula Pant: “Afford Anything” features timely interviews with Rob Berger and Big Ern on YouTube and the podcast (65:21).
• Matthew Tarr: “CoastFI Couple”—YouTube/interviews with other CoastFI couples, focus on talking about money as a partnership (66:18).

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Key Takeaways

• Recession probably coming, but don’t react rashly: Know your plan, have an investing fire drill, and stick to it.
• Renting vs. Buying is exceptionally personal: If you’re not set for long-term location or the math doesn’t work, renting makes sense.
• Frugality isn't everything: Allocating money to time-saving or joy-bringing expenses is wise.
• Don’t underestimate healthcare planning: ACA confusion and long-term care costs can trip up even the financially literate.
• Emotions matter: The right allocation is the one you’ll stick with, not the theoretical max return.
• Community & collaboration are undervalued: Whether at FinCon or in your own life, seek the rising tide, not just more information.

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For deep dives or bonus insights, visit each panelist’s show and follow their work online. Show notes and links are available at StackingBenjamins.com.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

My God.

[A]

Dukes are going to corner the entire frozen orange juice market.

[C]

Live from Portland, Oregon, it's the Stacking Benjamin Joe. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug, and it's that magical time when money nerds from around the country crawl out of their spreadsheets to gather at fincon. That's right, an entire convention of people who think compound interest is cocktail party small talk. It's the kind of gathering that that makes an actuarial convention look like a warehouse rave. At 3am today, we're taking you straight to the floor of the biggest money creator conference in the land. What's keeping your favorite money experts audiences up at night? Housing, Interest rates. The R word. Yeah. Recession. And a few more curveballs you'll want to hear. More importantly, we'll share what real people like you, Stacker, can actually do about it. So as mom upstairs always says, quit staring at the hot water heater and hit the button. Let's take you now to Portland and Joe Sal Sehi.

[A]

Hey there, stackers. I am Joe Sal Sehei. And welcome back to a very special episode of the Stacky Benjamin Show. We're so happy that you're here, and I'm super happy these people are here. Let's meet the crew. The woman who normally is way over Manhattan is now sitting on my right. Paula Pants here.

[D]

I am so excited to be here in person. Things are always so much more fun face to face in the flesh.

[A]

It 100% is like. That's what I love about conferences. And it's also Jesse Kramer, who's also here normally in Rochester, New York, where I think the snowmelt is finally gone. That it's September starting to get into fall now that second winter has finished.

[B]

That's right. We can now see last year's dead leaves on the ground because the snow is melted. Just in time for this year's leaves to fall and add to the ever growing pile. I. I don't know if people know that upstate New York is under 14ft of dead leaves right now.

[A]

It's the real calamity in America.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Yes. Nobody's talking about it.

[B]

Nobody.

[A]

I think it's a conspiracy, Jesse.

[B]

Some say. Some say. I almost called you Doug.

[A]

Oh, what are you doing? We left him at home for a reason, dude. What are you doing?

[B]

He's in Portland, Maine right now by himself. Can you picture Doug by himself right now? Like Shel a crab. She's got this big fat lower lip eating crab meat.

[A]

Doug with crabs. I can imagine. Too many jokes, too little time. Anyway, where are we going with that? Jesse, how are you, man?

[B]

Doing great. I've loved this fincon connected with so many people. My first time in Oregon. Portland's a really cool city and it's been wonderful. I mean, a lot of really new people. Have you met any new people by chance? Joe?

[A]

You know what, there is one guy who I've been following for a long time. I think his show's been around for a couple years. And we finally have him on a hot mic, part of the coast by Couples here. Matthew Tarr joins us. How are you, brother?

[E]

I'm doing good, I'm doing good. Thanks for. Thanks for having me, guys. This is kind of like a bucket list item for me, I have to admit. Well, heart's a little powdering a little bit.

[A]

Mine too.

[B]

Okay, good.

[A]

I'm on with Matthew and it's awesome. But you and your amazing spouse do this kick ass podcast. Tell us what coast Fly Couple is all about.

[E]

Yeah, so coastfly Couple is kind of a dream that my wife and I had about sharing our five journey and we talk all about our relationship through that stage and how we are trying to teach our kids to be a little bit money savvy. And so it's been about a year and a half now that we've had the show going and it's honestly, it's been a dream because I've been able to rub shoulders with some of my favorite people on earth. So yeah, that's all it's all about.

[A]

Well, and the cool person you get to rub shoulders with, I mean, you guys already rub shoulders before, is your spouse, who by the way is way better on your show than you are. I just, I hate work.

[E]

I'm glad you mentioned it because I'm not the star of the show. She definitely is.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. But you guys together, I mean, obviously you've got chemistry. You've been. How long have you been married?

[E]

Over 10 years now.

[A]

Yeah. That's amazing. Yeah, I've had to work with Doug for longer than that and I'm ready for the divorce. Paula, let's just, let's just get that thing done. So let's talk fincon for just a second. Paula. So far this fincon versus other ones. By the way, fincon, let me define it for our stackers that have no idea what the heck this is. This is not a financial conference, like economy or like a campfire, which are great places for all of our stackers to go meet other like minded people. This is really helping creators of personal finance content do a better job and reach more people. Because frankly, Paula, you can put our shows all together. Dave Ramsey, Susie Orman, you can put everybody in a stack and still nobody in America is listening to personal finance content.

[D]

Right, right, Exactly. You've got 330 million people and we've, you know, Dave Ramsey's reach is what, 3 million or so?

[A]

Maybe.

[D]

Yeah, you know, and he's, he's the biggest. And so.

[A]

No, ours is five. Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't mean five million. I'm at five.

[D]

Oh, five people. If you think about as a proportion of the US population, even as a proportion of the adult population, it's a drop in the bucket. There are so many more people that we can reach.

[A]

So to make things entertaining, to make people realize that this is not brain surgery, to make it as usable as possible as quickly as possible, like it's great. But this one versus other ones, Paula.

[D]

I've really liked this one. It's been a perfect blend of meeting with other creators, meeting with like video creators, long form video, short form video, people who are writing newsletters again, you know, newsletters, they kind of had a dip and they seem to have come back into the zeitgeist. So in terms of the mediums through which people create content, whether that's in the written format or the video format, I feel like there's been a really, really good mix of people here.

[A]

Matthew, how many fincons have you been to?

[E]

This is on my second fincon.

[A]

Yeah, what do you Think this one versus last year.

[E]

Yeah, I mean, I was really excited about last year because I kind of, you know, had a chance to meet everybody that I've been listening to in person for, you know, 10 years. Yeah, right. So that was super exciting. This actually has been really great too because now I know a lot of people personally and I get to connect with them again. And so there's friendships that are built. And, you know, I'm a relatively newer podcast scene and so I'm learning a lot from pros. I've been doing this for over a decade and it's really is a dream to be able to, you know, learn from the best, let's put it that way.

[B]

Jesse, I would love. This is my third fincon every other year. So I was. Austin, New Orleans, and now here for the listeners out there, the same way that say, okay, afford anything. Stacking Benjamins is this collaborative project to bring you really helpful information. Fincon is that version for us on the nerdy side of creating content where it's a super collaborative and meet people who are doing really interesting things, learning interesting things that we can then bring in into our own podcasts, our own newsletters, our own or even venture into new, new formats altogether. And that collaboration, really, it's a rising tide that lifts all ships. I mean, that is one of the best ways to describe fincon.

[A]

And I know what some of our stackers are thinking. Maybe as you're walking the dog, that, you know what, that doesn't apply to me. I don't know my own little business. I don't have a podcast. I think the bigger lesson is that it's brand you. And whether you work for somebody else or you work for yourself, it doesn't matter to hone your skills. Don't wait for somebody else to manage you. Don't wait for somebody else to make you better at it. Go to industry conferences. It's so important.

[E]

A lot of us are doing this completely by ourselves, just out of passion projects and they just happen to take off with audiences that are interested or maybe experiencing something similar. And so why not talk and share and mingle and collaborate with everybody else?

[A]

Yeah. And I think about the fact that people, Paula, take for granted. You know, I'm going to pay a couple hundred thousand dollars to a college that has a good roi, maybe, but maybe not, I don't know. But we won't pay $5,000 to get coaching from the person that does the exact thing that I need to be better at in my life.

[D]

Right. What many people may not realize, if you haven't experienced it, is how much value comes from sometimes offhand remarks that people say when you're just having a casual conversation that never would have come up in a pre recorded video, scripted, prerecorded video or even because I know some people have asked me, like people from my audience have asked me, hey, why do you, why do you board a flight and stay in a hotel? Like, why take all of that expense when you can just have zoom meetings with people? And it's because those levels of casual conversation that doesn't really happen over remotely.

[A]

It's almost like musicians riffing. You know, I say something and Matthew says something and Jesse says something and Paula says something and all of a sudden I got this brand new idea. I get this idea from a guy I haven't seen in several years, an old friend, Matt Giovanisi. Some of our stackers might remember, Listen, money matters. Matt's back. This year I got like the best tip from this guy about our guides, which I already love and how to make them even better. Like it was incredible. It was so cool. Just this chance meeting. Paul, like you said in the hall, we are not here to talk about fincon. We're here to talk about your audiences. You guys are obviously influencing a lot of people. You're talking to a lot of different people. I would love to hear from all of you what your communities are worried about and we'll talk about those fears and the different things going on, maybe in the economy, maybe with the markets, maybe with just life in general or trying to get where they want to go. So that's our theme today. I'll give you guys a second to get ready for that mission. We've got a couple sponsor stackers that make sure that we can keep on keeping on. And you don't pay anything for this. So we're going to hear from them and then Paula, Matthew, Jesse and I, we're going to talk about what's going on in the zeitgeist. Live from the floor at fincon.

[F]

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[A]

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[B]

No, I haven't, but I used this joke last night. You know if it walks like a duck? We're in Oregon. We're in the home of the duck. Using a lot of duck jokes. We're also Oregon State is here. I've been using fewer beaver jokes.

[A]

And Jesse's canceled. You know what's the one from the Naked Gun? Nice beaver. Thanks, I just had it stuffed. It's so bad. Have any of you seen the new Naked Gun not yet, no. Oh, my God. It's the same stuff. It's exactly the same. What's his name? Liam Neeson. Tells. Tells. Pamela Anderson. Take a seat. I already have plenty of chairs. Thank you. Anyway, Paul doesn't get it.

[D]

I've never seen the original Naked Gun.

[A]

They're all dumb dad jokes like that. Okay, why don't you take a seat? And she's like, literally going to take the chair home with her. Yes. So funny, isn't it? Yeah.

[D]

Amelia Bedelia.

[A]

Okay, yeah. We're going to move on. Paul Pan. Let's stick with you. Let's not ask you for humor. Let's ask you for what are people worried about?

[D]

What's one thing that people are worried about? Well, one thing I hear often from my audience is from people who don't yet own a home, they feel like they've been priced out of the market. And home prices from 2020 to 2021 nationwide rose 17%. And that was just in one year. And in aggregate, home prices overall are up about 50% higher than they were as of, I think, relative to 2019 levels. So you have this huge run up in home prices. And then at least at the moment, you also have high interest rates, compounding that. Now, that's not going to last forever. Eventually those are going to go down. But sure, the Fed's going to have a series of rate cuts, and those are going to have a little bit of an effect, but it feels like a very long, slow process. And, you know, rates will probably not realistically get back to the ZIRP era like we used to see, you know, back in 2017. So between those two factors, people really feel priced out okay.

[A]

For people who don't know what ZIRP means. What the hell are you talking about?

[B]

First Zeitgeist, now zirp.

[A]

I know.

[D]

I like Z words, I guess. Zirp. Zero interest rate policy. Policy.

[A]

I gotcha.

[D]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

Nice. Thank you for that. I appreciate that. Matthew, where are you based?

[E]

I live in Jacksonville, Florida.

[A]

Gotcha. Expensive housing there.

[E]

It's getting there. I mean, most people from the north and the west kind of came over during the pandemic and ever since, and so we've had a lot more real estate booms and price increases just in the past three or five years. I've definitely noticed that. You know, you mentioned about, can people get in now? I think it's. It's not the best time to buy a house. For me, if I were to start over again, you know, I personally would Wait. Because I want my house to be the place that I'm staying and not having to worry about moving, but I also want the flexibility of not being house poor. Right. Like, I really am concerned about that. And so when I talk to my audience about, hey, I really want to buy a house, because that's the American dream, I would almost ask, well, you know, does the math make sense? Would you really want to be tied down in such a high interest rate market? Maybe there's a different option. And I think renting right now is probably the preferred option for me personally, when I talk to people.

[A]

Dude, you brought up like three great topics. Let's start with down payment, though. Jesse? Yeah, if somebody's looking at this gigantic down payment I gotta do or some of these, you know, loans where I don't put a lot of money down, well, what do I do to start trying to get that down payment together?

[B]

I mean, the hard part about this conversation is I don't know if there's a magic bullet. Like, how do you put a down payment together? You really have to figure out a savings plan and figure out that number. Now, what Paula was saying is like, well, if someone started in 2021 and they're like, we want to buy, this is our home, and it's a $300,000 home, 20% of that is 60 grand. That's our number. And now that same home is selling for 450. 20% went from 60,000 to now 90,000. So it's not easy. One interesting stat I've heard a few times is that if you look at kind of like the new homes being built, and then you divide that by the total population. So like, new homes per capita, that since 2008, the great financial crisis, the housing crisis, that new homes per capita number is lower than basically any other time in American history. Coming out of 2008, the big kind of mega home builders that buy some tranche of land and build 200 homes on it, they didn't want to do that anymore, or maybe they couldn't afford to do that anymore. And so that lack of supply is part of the reason why we're where we're at. There's just too much demand and not enough supply. But it's just not an easy problem. Like, you can't snap your fingers and fix that overnight, can you?

[D]

Tron is a great word. That's a good one.

[B]

Thank you. Thank you. A little, I think. Is it French?

[A]

Tron? I think if you say it right.

[B]

If they're. I apologize to all the French listeners out there.

[A]

Yeah, that was spot on. Like, oh, he's local.

[B]

Stick with beaver, Jess.

[A]

I think he's local. Paula, if you know you're going to. Because I think Matthew raises a great point, which is, if you're not sure how long you're going to be somewhere, why buy a house?

[D]

Yeah, you know, renting provides a lot of flexibility. And the thought exercise that I often like to walk people through is imagine what this world would be like if there were no rentals. If that wasn't an option, we would have a society that would have no mobility. Obviously, if there's no mobility, there's no socioeconomic mobility. So rentals are a really important part of our society. They allow for people of all ages and all stages of life to have flexibility. I think it's a wonderful wonder. I'm a renter in my apartment in Manhattan. And that's actually for a different reason. It's not for flexibility. It's because Manhattan is a place where the price to rent ratio, which is the home price divided by the annual rental rate, the price to rent ratio points in a direction in which it makes financial sense to rent. And that's true regardless of how much or how little money you have. You could have Jeff Bezos money and it would still make more sense to rent in a place like Manhattan. So that's the other element of it is depending on what city you live in, there are certain areas, like Cleveland, where it makes a lot more sense to buy financially versus Manhattan. It makes a lot more sense to rent financially regardless of how much money you have.

[A]

I could just see Jeff Bezos with his new spouse going, you know what, I did the math on Monaco and I decided we're just going to rent. Like, he's not making the financial decision.

[D]

I think, well, he himself may not be, but as a thought exercise, imagine that money was no object. Yeah, but imagine if money was no object, but you still wanted to make the financially sensible decision, the sound decision. It would still make more sense to rent in Manhattan and to buy in a place like Cleveland or Indianapolis.

[A]

But Matthew, it used to, I think, make all of us frickin eye roll was when you'd hear people go, well, renting is throwing money away. And I go, come on, no. Now what kind of gives me eye roll is renting is better for everybody. Like I'm going to rent for life because of the fact that if you're renting five, six, seven, eight, nine years from now, that rental price is always going to go up and you're not in control of it. Now, I know your property taxes are still going to go up, your insurance costs are going to go up. So those are still going to go. But where do you make that transition from renting is the right move over to buying is the right move?

[E]

Yeah, it's a tough question because you don't really know when you set out to look at the housing market or the rent market, what the next 10 years is going to hold. You know, I think if for me personally, I knew that I was going to be in Florida for at least 10 years because I had a kid there and I had family there. So, like, it made sense for me at the time to look and buy because I wanted to be able to ride that up and build equity. But right now, I mean, my house is expensive. Everyone's houses are expensive in my area because you've got increased expenses on, you know, mowing the lawn. Everyone's trying to drive their business. And so, you know, it cost me almost $150 a month to like mow my lawn if I wanted to pay a service for it. So that's just one example of all the extra fees associated to having a home that you don't necessarily tie into directly when you're doing cost analysis. And so, you know, I try to really think about what my, my plan is and if I feel like I'm going to be like planted, then, then, yeah, maybe buying is the best option. But can I afford it? And then can I house hack potentially? You know, like, what, what kind of house am I going to buy is a starter home? Am I going to be, you know, doing like a, a three, two or am I going to have a roommate? So I have to get creative in that, you know, option. But for me personally right now, in my stage, my kids are getting older, I want the flexibility. I'm looking abroad. Can I take advantage of geo arbitrage? You know, I've got friends that have moved to Bali now and there's no reason not to explore internationally if you are looking for a place to live. Me personally, I just, I want to keep my options open. Sure.

[A]

Did you find living in Florida? A lot of people that we talked to in Florida have watched their homeowners insurance prices go up. Have your skyrocketed?

[E]

Yes, yes, they have. There's actually a piece of legislation that's going by in Florida, particularly where we're trying to fight hoas right now because they're kind of unregulated. And if some HOA says Hey, you now need to pay X. We all have no recourse. We have to pay X and we can't do anything about it. So that pushes people out and creates a lot of angry consumers, let's put it that way.

[A]

Wow. Well, in HOA too, you always have that neighbor who's the president of the hoa.

[E]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

Who like thinks they lord over the neighborhood. That drives me crazy.

[B]

We know a few people with that kind of personality.

[A]

Do you really?

[B]

Yeah, we do know. We here on this panel. We know a few people. Yeah. Not to be named something both you guys just hit on. And for anyone listening who is thinking like, I've done the math on renting versus owning. Doing the math on renting is super duper easy. Like Your rent is $3,000 a month and maybe you are in charge of utilities or something like that. Understanding your math on owning is unbelievably hard because there are so many variables that. Exactly. Like Matt, you don't think of. I, I wasn't thinking, but when I bought my house five years ago, that I don't know that the cost of replacing a gutter would be X. Or that technically speaking, the cost of a new mower, which I wouldn't have to mow my own lawn if I was renting. And so my point is it's really hard to do. And one thing I do like that I think all of the good rent versus buy calculators or spreadsheets have as a really important variable is that how long do you think you'll live here? Because like, no matter the math, if you're a younger adult, say, and you're living in a new city because that's where your job is. Like if you don't know, you don't know you're going to live there for whatever it is, five, seven, ten plus years, that might automatically preclude you from buying a house because so many of the costs are front loaded when it comes to like a mortgage or something like that. So my point is the buying, owning math on a home has a lot more variables to it than I think the average consumer might be aware of.

[A]

That's funny because we think of it as this layup. It's all the same number because I know my mortgage number. But it's not just the two things I brought up. Dishwasher breaking.

[B]

Yeah.

[E]

Back unit breaking.

[B]

Yeah.

[E]

House, new roof needing. Yeah. Right.

[A]

So let's go back to Matthew's lawn service. Are you then, Matthew tar lawn service. You're your own lawn service.

[E]

No. So I live on a slope, and I tried to do that myself because I wanted to save money. Like, yeah, I'm pretty frugal guy. So the idea of me pushing this lawnmower up and down a slope, I did it for a couple months, and I hated it. I hated it so much. As soon as I was able to, you know, sit down with my wife and justify how much time I'd get back on my Saturdays by not having to mow. Like, that was the one thing that I put in my budget that I felt was justifiable in me being a little selfish.

[A]

I love that.

[E]

Yeah. But I have to account for it. Like, my lawn care expenses have gone up every other year for, you know, the entire time I've been my house over 10 years now. So I have to justify that. And, you know, in addition, I got. I had a new H VAC unit, and I know the new roof is going to come. So there's things out there that I have to plan for.

[A]

Paula, look at how happy he looks. Looks that he doesn't have to mow his lawn.

[D]

Yeah, yeah, I'm thrilled.

[E]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. Like, spending money on the thing that gives you joy, right? That clearly gives Mr. Tar a little joy.

[D]

Yeah, yeah. You can see the joy in his face. Eyes light up.

[E]

This is exactly the same argument I have with my wife when she says, you know, that's looking pretty expensive. I'm like, but look at all the time I get back. So, yeah, we have a woman who.

[A]

Comes every other Friday to our house and cleans. We're pretty clean people. But that every other Friday when she comes and it's the beginning of the weekend and I don't have to do it. It's so awesome. And it's the thing, when I was younger, I would have never done. Once I started doing that, I'm like, why didn't I spend that money sooner? You have any of those, Paula?

[D]

I used to. I used to have a cleaning person. Not anymore, but I agree, that's to walk into your home and to have it just be spotless and know that you didn't have to deal with any of it. And the other thing that I noticed is that oftentimes, if I had piles of stuff, they would organize it in ways that I hadn't thought of, and they would organize it in ways that were so much more clever and more efficient than anything that I had come up with. So they're just innovations, essentially. I mean, it's a small innovation, but it is a new idea, is an Innovation and their ability to see, like, hey, you know what? If we stacked this stuff in this way, it actually would make a lot more sense and it would take up less space and it would look neater. Yeah, that's like something that you get from having more brains in the room.

[A]

I just invested in some new shelves that was just lit up my life. And my board game collection looks badass.

[D]

Now, by the way.

[A]

Looks fantastic. I want to go down that rabbit hole because I know that sometimes, you know, we talk about being frugal, but sometimes I think, Matthew, we're overly frugal and we don't remember. It's about having more joy in our life, not just a bigger bank account.

[E]

Yeah, I'm totally guilty of being as frugal as possible. I was that guy who would say, stop and pick up every penny on the road. Like, that was me for years. And it was made dating really hard. Right. Nobody wants to really be with that guy. But. But luckily my wife, over the past 15 years we've been together now, she's kind of made me stop and smell the roses a little bit. So, you know, we talk about this on our show. Like, what is it that makes my life enjoyable? Well, I'm gonna pay for those things. I'm gonna put more effort into those things. I contribute now to, like, a date night fund, because before I would just ignore it. I wouldn't really think about it. But now if I want to maintain a healthy relationship, I got to prioritize taking my wife out. So those are the things that we're putting money to that I normally wouldn't do naturally by myself.

[A]

That's fabulous. Let's talk about. Matthew mentioned interest rates, higher interest rate environment. We hear that a lot, Paula. But is this really a high interest rate environment?

[D]

Historically speaking, no. But, you know, there's that disconnect between, I can tell you, historic data, but that doesn't affect how you emotionally feel. And so, sure, if we zoom out and we look at the last 50 years of interest rate history, historically speaking, this is a fairly normal interest rate environment. But if your lived experience is that you came of age in the 2010s and you saw all of your friends get these mortgages.

[A]

Three, two and a half percent.

[D]

Two and a half percent. Yeah, exactly. All your friends locked in mortgages at that rate back when homes were cheaper and you didn't. And then of your group of friends, you feel like the music stopped and you're the one. What's the musical chairs? The music stopped and you're the one left standing.

[A]

Yeah, right.

[D]

That's a really difficult emotional experience and nothing that I can say about historic norms, you know, but look at what it was in the 1970s.

[A]

Right.

[D]

That's not gonna Great. Yeah, exactly.

[A]

Fantastic.

[D]

That's not gonna heal that wound, really.

[B]

Paula, I was talking to someone here at fincon who. Our mortgage size, the amount we borrowed is within like $5,000 of each other. So when you're talking like a six figure mortgage, we essentially have the same borrowing amount. You and your friend, me and another fin Conner.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

And his interest rate from like 2021 or 2020, something like that is 2.75%. Mine is 6.5%. His mortgage payment is something like half of mine. And like I'm just sitting there like I'm happy for him obviously, but in the back of my head I'm like, oh, like our mortgage could be half of what we're currently paying and it's crazy. So you're right. Like even though 6.5% in the historical scheme of things isn't that bad. Yeah, there's, there's some bad feels when I know that anybody who got a mortgage in whatever it was from like 2017 to 2022 who's got that 2 or 3 or 4%, like they're in a much better spot than we are. Whatever, count my blessings, it's fine. But yeah, I don't care that people paid 14% in 1982. Why should I care about that? Right? Yeah.

[E]

But houses back in 1982 at 14% were way less expensive in relation to.

[B]

Good point.

[A]

Salaries, total cost compared to salary. Yeah.

[B]

It's a very interesting housing time that we're living through right now.

[A]

Which is why I get frustrated when I hear older people go off if they just buckle down, you know, and I'm like, it's not the same man. You cobble in together $8,000 for your down payment is not the same as somebody trying to get 90,000 because they live in the Bay Area.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. When you say older people, could you add some definition to that?

[A]

Way older than me. I'm saluting Jesse right now, everybody. Nice, nice. One finger salute. Thank you, man. Jesse, let's stick with you for a second because let's say that Paula's math works out right and the mortgage makes sense. Matthew talked about still might be with the interest rate time, he might wait. Do you agree with that? Or if the math makes sense and you think you're going to be, going to be around, you instead lock it in and then refinance.

[B]

I'm more of the mind of lock it in refinance for a couple reasons. A, I don't want to be in the game of predicting future interest rates. I mean, even though I agree with everything that you guys have said here, like most likely in the coming six months, interest rates will start to go back down. Like that's what the bond market is predicting right now.

[A]

The data we've seen just in the last few days have kind of shown that. Yeah.

[B]

And so that's the first reason why it's like, if I can help it, I don't want to be in the game of predicting future interest rates. And then the second reason why is that at the end of the day, I still don't view a personal home as an investment. I don't. I view it as a place to provide shelter for your family. And to that end, it's not that I want to be stupid with my money there or I'd want anyone to be stupid with their money, but it's if you find your dream home and you can pull the trigger today and you can win that bidding war because Lord knows that's probably going to happen in today's environment, I think you should do it. And sometime in the future, Whether it's in six months or 12 months or five years, maybe you'll get a chance to refinance and make it smarter financially. But at least you have provided that family home that you wanted. And I think that's the first priority for me or for people who I talk to.

[A]

Guys, we've covered one topic, we're going to cover three. Initially, when I plan this, I thought we were going to do six, but I'd rather cover less and dive deep. So we're going to get two more after the break. Stackers. We're going to be back from the floor of fincon in just a moment.

[D]

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[A]

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[A]

And did you miss us? I bet you did. Matthew Tarr, what are coastfi couple listeners worried about?

[E]

Yeah. So I did a little poll with my community and what I'm hearing a lot right now has to do with the maybe potential of AI taking jobs and the potential for a recession coming. We have no idea, can't predict the future, but there is this feeling of uncertainty. And for new listeners that are roughly, you know, my age, I'm 39 right now. We haven't gone through too many downturns in the past. My investments have been pretty consistent and, you know, that's been a blessing. But it also has given me a little sense of maybe recency bias. I'm expecting an average 10 plus percent growth. And so my community, we're, you know, coasters or we're trying to become coast by and there's this fear of like, well, can I be reliant upon this 10%? Am I ready to leave my job and start just covering my expenses? Because if I'm expecting a 10 year, you know, dip or a stagnant growth rate, that really impacts my plan. And so that's the fear right now. And I guess the question from that individual would be like, what do I do? Do I change my plan? Should I be more conservative? Should I change my asset allocation? Like, what would you all say, oh, that's fantastic, man.

[A]

Well, let's dive into those because you've got 15 things that you always bring up. Great. Like five different places for us to go.

[E]

Hey, I only get one shot at.

[A]

Being at this table, you guys.

[E]

I'm trying to be prepared.

[A]

If you keep doing that, my God, we'll get rid of Doug. Jesse, let's start on Matthew's list. I want to start with this idea of a possible downturn coming because I was watching CNBC on the plane ride on the way over here and Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan Chase was on and they have a new headquarters building. But they were talking to him about the same thing Matthew brings up about the potential for a downturn. Right. And Jamie Dimon said, and I not direct quote, but he said there's probably a downturn coming. And when Jamie Dimon says, and JPMorgan Chase has so much data, so so much data when he says it's probably coming, that Matthew's probably not wrong. So what's your first thought as a guy working in a financial planning firm about that possibility?

[B]

Yeah, I mean it's funny, one of the notes I took when I was thinking about what my one thing will be. So this won't be it, but. Right. An overvalued stock market. Now we're talking maybe the economy might go through a recession, but the stock market right now too, the average price to earnings ratio is 30. Historically it's usually between 12 and 20 and the S&P 500 at an all time high. So if you're about to start coastfi and that whole idea of a multi year downturn or a recession where I might lose my job before I want to lose my job because I don't want to retire, like I totally get the fear in that.

[A]

I want to talk about that for a second because some of our stackers might not know what PE ratio really even means.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

So it's the price of the stock. If you take all the shares of the stock and this is what the stock's priced at versus the earnings of the company, that number that it creates is the number of years it's going to take based on earnings for that price to be justified. So if you're saying 12 to 15 years normally it would take to justify that price.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Now it's going to take freaking 30 years.

[B]

Yep. Yep. And right. The simple analogy is, you know, if you're running a lemonade stand that made $100 last summer, how much as a company is your lemonade stand worth? And someone might come in and say I'll pay a $2,000 for it. Well, the price 2,000 divided by the earnings 100 P E ratio of 20 and just. Yeah, you're right. That person is assuming that either at a steady clip of not growing the company, they'll get their investment back in 20 years. Right. Yeah. Or what they're really saying and what's going on right now with this high PE ratio of 30 is there's a lot of optimism, maybe irrational exuberance in the market of investors saying I think earnings are going to continue increasing so that that earnings portion is going to go up, up, up, up, and will later in the, you know, five years from now. Today's price is totally going to be justified, because look at how the earnings have grown. Maybe that's true, maybe not. But either way, the idea of, yeah, I mean, a recession and. Or the market crashing in some way, bear, market, whatever you want to call it. It's this weird dichotomy in my head where on the one hand I say we have been here before. Like, you know, the market has crashed before, we've had recessions before. And again, this is where, Paula, it's going to echo exactly what you said. The problem with that logic is that idea of reminding people of history is like, that might not make me feel better today.

[D]

Right, Right.

[B]

And so for that reason, I mean, that is the reason why if someone's seriously considering pulling the trigger on fi on financial independence, retire early or just retirement in general tomorrow, they need to have some sort of a conservative asset in their portfolio, right? Maybe it's cash, maybe it's bonds. To each their own. A bigger question might be, well, how much? And that's where I was on a financial independence podcast a few months ago, and I brought up the idea of having eight to 10 years worth of bonds and. Or cash. And a lot of listeners were like, who the hell is this guy and why is he so conservative? And it's like, well, listen, if you look at the 4% rule, and depending on how much money you have, so I'll quiz you guys, we'll go live. So if you have the 4% rule, and that's your retirement guidepost, how many years worth of money do you have if you're following the 4% rule, does that make sense?

[D]

But if you have the 4% rule, you, according to Bill Bengen, you can draw down for actually 4.2% until infinity.

[B]

Totally agree, totally agree. But how many years of expenses do you have in your portfolio?

[D]

Well, how big is the portfolio? What's the value of the portfolio?

[B]

It's a million dollars.

[D]

Oh, then 40,000.

[B]

Right. And so 40,000 times what, how many years? I guess my point is 25 years, right? It's the 25x rate rule. 4% is the 25 actual same thing. So, yeah, I guess what I'm saying is that when I say you should have 10 years worth of bonds, really what that's saying is that 40% of your portfolio should be in bonds.

[D]

Right. But Bill Bengen's research is around, so his statement is not that you have 25 years worth of expenses, it's that if you draw down 40,000 a year on a 1 million portfolio, because that portfolio is going to Continue to grow.

[B]

I know, yeah, I understand that the portfolio is growing, but I'm saying day one of retirement you have 25x your expenses in your portfolio.

[D]

Right.

[B]

What I'm saying is that if someone were to say that they have 10 years worth of bonds because it's just a round number, they are going to back themselves into a 60, 40 portfolio. That's the only thing I'm trying to reach a conclusion here because they have. That's. Maybe I'm not explaining it clearly, but the point is that if you're entering retirement, I think you have to have a reasonably conservative nest egg. I mean, and the cool thing about what we're talking about is that Bill Bengan's research, at least initially, was based on a 5050 portfolio. 50% stocks, 50% bonds. At the end of the day, some sort of conservative ballast is needed. How much? To each their own. Talk to OG about it.

[A]

And that's where we need OG here because he would disagree with everything you just said, Jesse.

[B]

I know, I know, disagree.

[A]

It'd be a great fight. Yeah, Be fantastic. So Matthew, now you got to be OG and fight with him. Fight with him right now.

[E]

Yeah, well, I agree to an extent. You know, I think it'd be hard pressed for me because again, I'm living frugally. I'm trying to cover my annual expenses. My plan is to be retired hopefully by 55. That's my current trajectory. So if I were to sit here and say that I had eight to ten years of cash on hand to cover my expenses, oh man, that would change. That would make me feel comfortable for sure. But that I would also, that would. On the flip side, I could bring my 55 year retirement date much closer if I invested some of that. So it's, it's, that's the concern, that's the balance. Like how comfortable am I with the math and with the potential for, you know, this, this maybe 10 year plus stagnant market? I don't know, I think I would be uncomfortable with that much cash on hand given my experience in the market, which granted is only limited based off of the past, you know, two decades or so.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Because Jesse, it makes me feel horrible kind of saying what you're saying, Matthew, that I'm like, that's just too much.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That just to me is just crazy. Too much.

[D]

Well, actually, you know, now that I've thought about it, I will actually speak up in defense of Jesse's position.

[A]

What?

[D]

Yeah, because.

[A]

Okay, we're trying to hang him out to dry Here.

[D]

Well, all right, so let's take the lower of the two numbers. Let's take eight.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

And let's say that because Jesse said a combination of cash and cash and bonds, let's assume that the majority of that was bonds. Maybe there's like six months of cash and the rest of it is bonds. If on day one of retirement you have 25 years worth of expenses in your portfolio, then eight years is one third, which is 33%.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

So that's a 33% bond allocation.

[E]

Yeah.

[D]

So that actually makes sense to me.

[B]

It might not be too unreasonable. And maybe if someone's coming from the FI community or, or just if someone. I. I do understand there's this Joe, you might have to remind me of his name. Nick Murray.

[A]

Oh, Nick Murray.

[B]

Nick Murray is this advisor. He's this financial adviser coach, wonderful. Writes some really nice books. He has, like, his advice to his own clients in his advisory practice is zero bonds, zero bonds, all stocks, all the time, forever, because of the long term track record.

[A]

And that's who og, by the way, is a disciple of, is Nick Murray. He loves Nick Murray. And he's like, nope, no bonds.

[B]

But the counter argument is what Matthew just brought up of, well, if you didn't own any bonds in 1999, those next 10 years were totally gut punching, gut wrenching if you were a retiree entering retirement in the late 90s. And so the question is, here we sit at a point where, okay, some people are worried about a recession, some people are worried about an overvalued stock market. What if the next five, seven, ten years resemble that time from our past? Do you want to be in that position again? And that's just a challenging question to wrestle with.

[A]

And, and you know what I like about that, though, Jesse, is that when you talk about the turbulence, and the true question is, is can you hang on or not? Because it only works if you stay in the plane to keep the analogy. Right?

[E]

Correct.

[A]

Because I think OG also says this. He's like 100% stocks. That is the right way to go according to markets. But if you blow up your plan because you couldn't take the volatility, then it was the worst thing you could have done.

[B]

I mean, when we were flying out here, we hit turbulence over Montana and I was in an exit row and I almost jumped out.

[A]

No, it's so true.

[B]

It's. It's okay. I'm not flying home. I call it. I wrote, okay, I wrote a blog post once called Selling to Survive. And the whole Point of the blog post is, is that people have this flight or fight response at times to the market that is just like a flight or fight response in some other part of life. And they feel this need to sell, even though we all know the rational thing is not to sell, but they feel this need to sell in order to dampen that fight or flight response. They are literally selling because some survival instinct in their brain is saying, you are in danger and you need to get out of this, this. So we want to avoid situations where people feel the need to sell to survive. And I'm of the opinion that if a substantial bond allocation helps you avoid that situation, then it's the right thing to do and it has to be the right thing to do. And maybe that means that you can't retire at 53 and instead you need to retire at 56 because you have this extra bond allocation, because your bonds aren't going to grow as much as your stocks. And that's what the math says. But at the end of the day, as you said, Joe, like the idea of someone blowing up their own plan or jumping out of the plane at the wrong time is infinitely more damaging than the idea of like, well, save a little more money and put it in something conservative.

[A]

You know, for me, a key metric back when I was a financial planner to have my clients understand was this thing called standard deviation, which shows you how much up and down it will have on a normal day. So if it's a standard deviation of 15 and uber nerds, this is not exactly how it works. So I get that. But that means it could be plus 15 or minus 15. I know that's not perfect, but that's a good place to start on any given day. So if Your portfolio does + 15 and you're high fiving yourself that you're a genius, that's a normal day in this portfolio. And also if it's minus 15 and Jesse's going to open up the door to the plane and jump out, it's a normal ride of that. So I would go over, listen, you might not know what standard deviation is, but this is, it means, it means minus 15 is going to be what this will do and it's going to be normal. And you know what people would say at first? They go, that sounds fine, that's fine, I'm good. I go, no, no, no, no. Let's say this. You have a million dollars and you just lost $150,000. And that same person goes, oh, that's not fine. That is not Fine at all. Like the plus 15, minus 15, not the thing. And then we would make the portfolio more, you know, have it. Have less bounce, predictably, so that they could sleep at night.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Was super important.

[B]

Is this where we talk about the Mike Tyson quote?

[A]

What's. It might bite your ear off.

[B]

Everyone has a plan until they get punched.

[A]

Until they get punched.

[B]

And it is a joke a little bit in these investing circles because it's like one of those quotes that people. It's like Warren Buffett. Everybody quotes Warren Buffett. And in these conversations, everyone brings up the Mike Tyson quote. And to some extent, for some people, there is no way of explaining it other than the fact of, like, you're going to have to get punched to understand what it feels like. Because some people are like, you know what, 15% wasn't that bad. I know enough about the market to feel, okay, it wasn't that bad. And other people, Joe, are like, I'm going to jump out of the plane.

[A]

It was horrible.

[B]

Open that emergency exit.

[A]

Paula, what was your first big downturn as an investor? Which downturn did you live through first?

[D]

The Great Recession. The 2008 Great Recession.

[A]

Tell me about your emotional experience during that time.

[D]

So I had not been investing for that long prior to the 2008 recession, so I didn't have a lot to lose. I was excited about the opportunity to buy low. That excitement lasted for a number of years afterwards, like 2009-2010-2011-2012. All of those years, I recognized, were fundamentally buying low years. And I mean that both in terms of stuff, stocks and in terms of the real estate market.

[A]

Sure. Not excited about people's pain, but excited about people would sell and not real estate. Some people are forced to sell, but in the stock market, stock market, some idiots are out there selling their stuff at the wrong time.

[D]

Yeah, yeah. So I was excited about the opportunity to buy low. What I was confused about. So this wasn't an emotional thing, but this was based on my lack of financial education at the time. I was hearing people say, oh, you should never hold in a down market. Yeah, I heard people say that and they had their arguments and it sounded very rational. And I was like, oh, there's a very rational case to be made for not holding in a down market. So that was actually the thing that threw me off course. It wasn't an emotional feeling of I'm scared by watching, you know, what little I have drop. It was, oh, I'm being swayed by these very logical sounding arguments that I'm hearing from People who say that they, they are experienced investors and they have made a very persuasive argument as to why holding in a down market is a bad idea.

[A]

Annuity sales always go through the roof during these down markets. I mean, it's the perfect time to go. Matthew, you don't want this to happen. I mean, look at, why don't we, why don't we guarantee you some upside and you will never lose any money? Doesn't sound great.

[E]

It sounds great.

[A]

Yeah. I wouldn't go near it.

[B]

Yeah, yeah.

[E]

It's not.

[A]

But, but 2008, your first down market to then.

[E]

I was thrilled in 2008 because that was my prime earning years and I knew that everything was on sale. So I went heavy in investing in 2008. I did, I got lucky. But this, this is if the future happens, we do have a recession. This will be my first time that the market is down and I am coast. I'm this close to barista. I would be pulling out my portfolio and so I have to have a plan. So I'd be nervous now, but I think it's dependent on my age, you know, in my, my plan.

[A]

And Coast 5 means again that you're going to keep working but you can stop investing.

[E]

Exactly. I no longer have to contribute to my retirement accounts to be able to be okay come 55.

[A]

How far can the market go down before you're no longer coasting and you got to redo it. Yeah.

[E]

I think it comes down to how long will the recession last? If it's a 10 year recession or a 10, 10 year no growth, that's too long for me. I want to be able to still achieve the amount that I need for my fine number at 55. And so every year I'll be evaluating that. And I'm still working, I'm still bringing in what I need to cover. But my hope is my wife just left her job two months ago and my plan was to move to Barista at some point and start tapping those accounts. And I'm not going to do that if I don't have a couple years of cash saved up or if I'm comfortable with the market being down. I'm not going to tap that account. So it's just a strategy and I think it's worth discussing.

[A]

Yeah. Paula, downturn coming. Jamie Dimon said it. What's your first thought?

[D]

Well, I think we should always be prepared for a downturn. I mean, I cannot predict whether or not one is coming imminently.

[A]

Well, you're off this panel.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

You know, that's, that's the whole reason you're here. If Paula can't predict it, he can.

[D]

I think even Jamie Dimon and I respect him greatly, but he can't prognosticate with any degree of certainty as to if and when the next downturn might be.

[A]

Well, to be clear, here's what he said. He said it looks very apparent that it's coming. He goes, I don't know when and I don't know how long and I don't know how deep. Which also means you could say that.

[B]

Jesse's like anyone could say that at any time.

[A]

And here's one I pretty much predicting that right now. Jamie Dimon and I both said at some point the market's going to go down.

[B]

Maybe I could Google it. I think it was, I'm going to estimate 18 months ago, maybe 24 months ago. Jamie Dimon, I remember this because of his specific noun that he used. A hurricane was coming. A hurricane hurricane. You kind of look at what the last 18, 24 months have been. I don't know. I don't see that hurricane per se. And so he might be right this time. But you're right. I mean anyone could say that at any time and within a few months, a few years, they're probably going to be somewhat right.

[E]

I live on the east coast, so maybe he was being literal.

[D]

We knew there was Hurricane Milton and there was hurricane.

[B]

I'm pretty sure this is hey, Jacksonville. A hurricane.

[A]

I was going to say, isn't it weird that Florida man points out that he's hurricane. He might have been literal.

[E]

Didn't mean I moved or left. I'm still there.

[D]

The guy in Helene, maybe he was referring to that. Maybe he's a weatherman.

[A]

Yeah. Matthew, you think strategically if there is a downturn, like what's on your mind? Strategic, what would you do and what would you not do?

[E]

Yeah, I've thought a lot about this. You know, I'm actually in the camp where I don't have any bond allocation. I am still in my growth phase and I do have a roughly call it two years of cash on hand and that's enough. I'm hoping to weather through a two to three year downturn and I don't have intention to stop working in the short term. But if I want to, I want the option. And so I'm trying to be as careful as I can with still high growth potential. I want to stay in the market ideally and I don't want to have to pull out.

[A]

But so that means hold, number one. You would hold in a down market.

[E]

Given my age, you know, 39, I've got enough time left in my clock to be able to weather a potential decade of no break, and that's unfortunate. I'd have to still work longer than I'd want to, but I still feel like I am more bullish in this than Bear.

[A]

Gotcha. Jesse. Thing you do and the thing you don't do in a down market, you're.

[B]

Saying for me, personally, yeah. A thing I don't do would be sell. I don't know when I'm going to retire. It's certainly not going to be in the next. Well, we have one one year old home and a second one on the way now. So I don't think I'm going to retire in the next 22 years. So my timeline's long enough to not sell. I mean, something I would do though, is maybe feel a commitment to double down into the way that I'm bringing in income. It's not that I want to sit here and hit the hammer and be like, you must work harder, but that combination of extra earnings, buying into a market while it's low. And in a recession, unfortunately, people do lose jobs and it's a scary idea. And so you just want to make sure that hopefully, ideally, you aren't one of those people and that your, your income is there to support your family even as maybe, you know, other families out there are struggling. Great point, Paula.

[D]

If there's a downturn, I agree. Don't sell, double down, buy low, buy the dip. So what I would not do is I wouldn't sell. What I would do is I would try to free up as much cash as possible to be able to buy the dip. But what does it mean to free up as much cash as possible? Does that mean downsize to a smaller apartment? Does that mean curtail, you know, restaurants and clothing and have some of that run around naked? Well, stick with the clothing that I.

[A]

Have, you know, thanks for inviting that.

[B]

Become a nudist. What would I do in a recession? Become a nudist.

[A]

We're like, Jesse, this is a family show.

[B]

What would I keep the same in a recession? I would still be a nudist. They didn't want me to come to fincon, but I'm here. They made me put on a speedo.

[D]

So I would have to give some thought as to what it would mean. What would be the sacrifices that I would be willing to make in order to free up that money to be able to buy the dip. But if it was a severe enough downturn, I mean, the more severe the downturn, the more excited I get. Given that I have decades ahead of me, the more excited I get about the opportunity to buy low.

[A]

I think for me, I would. And even knowing one's coming at some point, like we said, right?

[E]

Predictor hurricane's coming.

[A]

Yes, it is coming. Not sure when. It's like, winter is coming, right? Winter is coming. We know that.

[D]

So I think we do know when winter is coming.

[A]

We can't forget the just ended in Rochester. We knowing that. I think now is a great time to get what we call an investment policy statement. Because the one thing I don't want to do is react. I want to feel the emotions. That's okay. But if I'm ever in my damn schwab account at 2 in the morning after a couple glasses of wine during a market downturn, you know, that's bad. The thing I hate hearing online is when people go, the market just went down. How do we react to this?

[B]

Right?

[A]

How do we react?

[B]

Have I ever told about the fire drill analogy with you guys? Like, one of my favorite things in the world is like, okay, remember when you were six years old, you're in Mrs. Jones first grade class class, and the fire alarm goes off, and you stand up and you get in line, and you kind of parade out towards the playground, and all the other kids are out there, too. And you see your friends in the end their classes, and three minutes later, the bell rings again and everybody goes back inside. And you do that, like, four times a year, every year, throughout all of school. Why do you do that? It's because when there's an actual fire, the last thing you want are. And there's actually, like, some smoke in the hallways. And, like, Mrs. Wikowitz's class is not actually burning. The last thing you want are a bunch of children literally panicking. It's happened before, and it's really bad. And so you practice when times are calm so that you know what to do when times actually get bad. And it's the same thing here. You set something up when things are calm so that when things get bad, you go, I've put some thought into this. I've thought about this. I know what I'm supposed to do. I know how I'm supposed to react. I know how I'm not supposed to react. Let me now execute that plan. So anyway, that fire drill analogy is something I think.

[A]

Great analogy. Fantastic. Jess, you got the last one. I saved you three minutes for yours.

[B]

Well, hey, I mean, I'll bring it up and we can either dive into detail or maybe we can have Matt on another time. Because I wanted to pick Matt's brain about this specifically. I've gotten some really interesting questions from either early retirees and maybe like the really early sense, like people wanting to retire at 40 or just people who are like, I'm 57 and want to retire next year here. And that question is, you know, the aca, American Care act, you know, Obamacare, Medicare, irmaa, private health care. Like, how do I tackle these healthcare questions? And not that things are necessarily changing right now. It's not like, you know, the first two topics where we're like, oh, we're kind of in an interesting time. It's more of just the idea that, like, I feel like there's a decent amount of confusion out there about how people tackle healthcare in either urgent early retirement, just regular retirement. And so that's just been a fun, interesting topic that I've been digging into lately with some of my audience.

[A]

Paula?

[D]

Oh, I just want to jump in and say we're here at fincon in Portland right now and one of the things that I have learned, just started learning about in the last 24 hours. I went a little bit last night down the Medicare rabbit hole. Wow. Wow, what an interesting topic. So not to shell for my show, but like on afford anything but I will anyway. Right? Exactly. You know, you don't have to hear it from me. You can use Google and find somebody else. But one of the things that I will be starting to create some content on is Medicare because I didn't know anything about it and now I'm deep down the rabbit hole and it's actually fascinating. It is like, like mind blown fascinating. So anyway, that's my new obsession. I'm a Medicare girly, you know, like.

[B]

F double I fire M, maybe throw an an in there. You could be fireman.

[A]

Oh, quick, say tm tm, trademark that right now before somebody steals it.

[D]

No, there are a lot of scammers out there who are pushing Medicare Advantage plans and they're pushing plans that have an incredibly high commission payout to them, even though that's not necessarily the right plan for you. And so there's a huge financial incentive for people to be pushing the wrong information. That's why I said I hope they're good. It's not a passive aggressive whatever. I genuinely hope they're good because if you are getting information from a trusted source, then you are Getting information that is told in a neutral way in which the provider of that information has no vested interest in you making decision A versus decision B versus decision C. But if you are getting information from a biased source in which that source has a vested interest in you making decision C rather than A or B, then you are getting skewed information. And unfortunately, in the Medicare arena, there is so much bad information out there because the incentives are misaligned. It's. I think it was Charlie Munger who said, show me the incentives and I'll show you the outcome. And there are such misaligned incentives when it comes to Medicare information.

[A]

Matt, you said you're 39.

[E]

Yes.

[A]

How old is your spouse? Or is she older or younger?

[E]

38.

[A]

Okay, 38. And she's already stopped.

[E]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. So how did you two think through health care options as early retirees?

[E]

Yeah, I wish she was here because we went down the rabbit hole, but admittedly she was the one kind of leading the charge, trying to figure out if she could leave her job. Right. And so we looked very heavily at the ACA and the open Marketplace, and we did buy a plan just in the past couple weeks, actually. So we're now one of those plans. It is expensive. And we had to figure out, well, if we had to go back to work, if a recession does happen, we'd have to get a job that would essentially cover some health care. So that's why Barista Phi is what it's what's called, because usually when you're a Barista Phi stage, you're pulling from the market, but you're not pulling enough, and you still need to cover your health care. And so you go and work at Starbucks, who offers even part time employees healthcare. And so that is something that we're considering.

[A]

Our. Our local school system is always needed bus drivers. And out of my run the other day, going by the high school, they had this big banner, and the big thing they were emphasizing was you get health care if you drive the bus.

[E]

Yeah, it's.

[A]

It's like a huge selling point, apparently.

[E]

It's funny, bring that up, because my school, like my son's school, also has that same banner. And there's a $5,000 signing bonus.

[A]

Wow.

[E]

So my wife left her job. We're driving past this banner every day going, ooh, that's looking awfully tempting. And so we might actually do that. And she's actually entertaining the idea. So my son might get real lucky on the bus someday.

[B]

So I was bus five. You heard it here first.

[E]

That's right.

[B]

I want to be bus by get on the bus. I hear it now. Get on the bus podcast.

[A]

Yes, yes. I just remember being in high school and getting lucky on the bus just had a whole different meaning.

[B]

I'm sorry, just you got healthcare on the bus.

[A]

J. I was like, where, where is this going, dude? So Jesse, I think not even just health care, but I think you even got to put the long term care issue in that as well, don't you?

[B]

Probably, yeah. I mean long term care is another one that I've taken some deep dives down. I still don't consider myself like a long term care expert. It's just really hard. So my understanding long term care insurance is a tough one because it's very expensive. Premiums can change over time. Like a of lot, lot of current people who maybe are in their late 70s, 80s who are starting to benefit from long term care insurance, they saw their premiums multiply by ridiculous amounts between times. They bought the insurance policy 25 years ago and today. And then for some people, you never need the long term care insurance. Like you never need it in your life to cover some sort of expense.

[A]

But that's what you're hoping for, correct? I mean, you don't have car insurance going, man, I hope I get an assault severe accident so this baby pays.

[B]

You're totally right. I mean, you are totally right. It's just that matter of do you self insure and build it into your retirement plan?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And say, listen, this $250,000 pot of my retirement dollars is going to be if I need this long term care coverage eventually. Or do you buy the insurance coverage when you're in your 50s or maybe early 60s or whatever it is, and then pay that premium for the next few decades, unsure of whether or not you'll use it? I'm not sure I have the right answer. Personally, I would lean towards self insuring in my own life, but who knows what the industry will look like in, you know, boy, by the time I'm in my 60s, that'll be 40 years from now. So a lot of change. I was like, wow, you look old for 25.

[E]

Jesse. I was going to say it, but.

[A]

He tried to slip that in. He does that every episode. He's going to just. I'm just going to say something, see what they do.

[B]

I didn't try to slip it in, Joe. That was, that was on the school bus.

[A]

No, no, no, no, no, no. All right, let's wrap this up. I think, Paula, that we're not going to solve Medicare today. I think what we're alluding to is this is probably something that may take more time exploring than you may think it is. So dedicate a bunch of time to this.

[D]

Yeah. You know, and I think one thing that kind of caught me off guard is I've been immersed in the personal finance space since 2011 and I'm just learning about this for the first time. What that tells me is that even people who have a very developed understanding of people who are highly financially literate and have a developed understanding of the world of personal finance still don't know what they don't know, particularly in the world of healthcare, you know, in the, in the world of insurance and government benefits and in these arenas that are not clickbait headlines, you know, so there are not a lot of people creating content about it because it's just, it's so not clickable. Right. It's not gonna ever go viral probably.

[A]

The truth about your Medicare Advantage.

[D]

The truth about Medicare Advantage versus Medigap.

[A]

I'm clicking on that right now.

[D]

Yeah, so you don't see content creators make content around it. You don't see best selling authors write books about it. And so even if you believe yourself to be financially literate, you might have a kind of a big oversight, like. Right, Joe's laughing at me right now.

[A]

No, I'm just thinking about that headline being clickbait difference number three will make you lol. You know, you'll be shocked.

[B]

Wait till you see number five.

[D]

Yeah, one weird trick.

[A]

Oh, so, so, so good guys, as always, thank you so much for hanging out. Let's find out what's going on where you live and work and the great stuff you guys are putting out into the universe for your communities. We'll have our guest of honor go last. So, Jesse Kramer, what's happening at Personal Finance for long term investors?

[B]

My friend, we are expanding to three episodes a month. I think that's the exciting news. We're going from every other week to three episodes a month. With that, we're going to start doing a monthly AMA episode because that seems to be what the people want. And I have a blast putting them together. So to be honest with you, I don't know my exact publishing schedule. Off the top of my head, I can't remember what episode is next. But starting in October, three episodes a month. So we're pretty excited about it.

[A]

More. Jesse, pinch me, please, God, pinch me. That's so good.

[B]

I do have long arms. Joe, don't.

[A]

Be careful what you Ask for. We heard it here first. And by the way, congratulations in order. I just found out a couple days ago and you mentioned it earlier in passing on the show. Baby number two on the way.

[B]

Baby number two is on the way.

[E]

Thank you.

[B]

Very exciting. A little nerve wracking, but mostly exciting.

[A]

Yeah, that is fan. That's fantastic.

[B]

Thank you.

[A]

Paula Pant. What's going on at the Afford Anything show?

[D]

So here at fincon, I've recorded a number of interviews. I spoke to Rob Berger. He has an eponymous YouTube channel, robberger.com so we've released that on the Afford Anything podcast as a bonus episode. I interviewed Carsten Jeska, better known as Big Earn. He is an economist, kind of well known in certain online circles for his Safe Withdrawal Rate series. He writes a lot about early retirement, but we spoke about current economic conditions, the Fed interest rates, inflation. So we had a pretty wonky conversation about that. A real deep dive.

[A]

Wait a minute, wait, did you say that you had a wonky conversation with Big Earn?

[D]

Exactly when does that happen?

[A]

Besides like every other minute with Big Earn?

[D]

So yeah, Rob Berger, Big Earn, and then we also spoke with Andy Hill, but that one is not out yet. Oh, but Rob Berger and Carsten, those episodes are already out.

[A]

Awesome. Three great people, three fantastic people. And you can hear that at the Afford Anything.

[D]

Yes, that's the Afford Anything podcast.

[A]

Matt. It's about damn time we got this done, my friend.

[E]

Yeah, yeah. Well, well, thanks again guys for having me. I've really enjoyed this. This has been again a bucket list list item for me. You can always find [e-mail] and we're a YouTube channel as well. So in the next couple weeks we've got a couple new interviews coming out. Justin Peters from the five Minded podcast.

[A]

Oh, nice guy. We just saw him walk by.

[E]

Yeah, yeah. Well, his girlfriend Gabby was with us and so we talk all about their journey on coast by and getting to that stage.

[A]

And did you girl her about what the hell she's doing with him?

[E]

I didn't.

[A]

I mean, because really we've known Justin for a long time and I'm like.

[E]

As a, as a host, I try not to get too particular on their relationships and I try to be respectful. Joe. So. But yeah, I mean it's been really good conversations and we're doing more of that. We're getting more guests on there with their spouses or their partners talking about how they come together as a couple. And I'm excited for the next couple weeks because we've got more on the list.

[A]

That's cool, because it's funny, they call communication a soft skill, but that's kind of often the hardest thing.

[E]

Yeah, you know, these are sometimes awkward topics and oftentimes I find when I'm interviewing people that maybe some of the questions I'm asking they haven't fully talked about themselves yet. And so I'm getting kind of raw input in real time and it leads to some really interesting discussions.

[A]

Stackers thanks so much for hanging out with us on today's episode. We'll see you again on Monday. We're going to send it back to Doug back in the basement. Doug, what are three takeaways from today's show?

[C]

So what's stacked up on our to do list for today? First, take some advice from our panel. Recession. Sure, one's coming, but that doesn't mean reacting is the answer. Instead, create an investment plan and stick to it. Second, renting versus buying. While buying can be a good answer and you should always make great financial decisions, you should never think of your primary home as an investment. But the big lesson Next time Joe tells you to meet him in Portland, be sure and ask which one, Joe, which one? I found out myself that Portland, Maine is beautiful this time of year. I mean, you know, the decor at Howie's Lounge or Bubba's sulky Room probably doesn't change much no matter what time of year you visit, you know, but still look pretty nice to me. Thanks to Matthew Tarr for joining us today. You'll find his Coastfi Couple podcast on YouTube and wherever you're listening to us now. We'll also include links in our show notes@stacking benjamins.com thanks to Paula Pant for hanging out with us today. You'll find her fabulous podcast Afford Anything wherever you listen to finer podcasts. And finally, thanks to the Jesse Kramer for pitching in. You'll find his charming Personal Finance for Long Term Investors podcast wherever you're listening to us right now as well.

[A]

You know what?

[B]

You know what?

[C]

I'mma do you solid and share links in our show notes [e-mail] this show is the property of SP Podcasts LLC, Copyright 2025 and is created by Joe Saul Sehi. Joe gets help from a few of our neighborhood friends. You'll find out about our awesome [e-mail] along with the show notes and how you can find us on YouTube and all the usual social media spots. Come say hello. Oh yeah. And before I go, not only should you not take advice from these nerds. Don't take advice from people you don't know. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any financial decisions, speak with a real financial advisor. I'm Joe's mom's neighbor, Doug, and we'll see you next time back here at the Stacking Benjamin Show.