Podcast Summary: The STIMPACK Podcast – S3.E7 "Considering Haiti as a Crime State" with Dr. Vonda Felbab-Brown

Release Date: March 28, 2025

In Season 3, Episode 7 of The STIMPACK Podcast, host Jeff Frazier engages in a profound dialogue with Dr. Vonda Felbab-Brown, a distinguished expert from the Brookings Institution. The episode delves into the escalating crisis in Haiti, exploring the intricate dynamics of crime, governance, and international intervention. Dr. Felbab-Brown provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of Haiti, drawing from her extensive fieldwork and expertise in conflict zones.

1. Introduction and Guest Background

Jeff Frazier opens the episode by introducing Dr. Vonda Felbab-Brown, highlighting her impressive academic credentials and extensive field experience in conflict zones such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Mexico, and Haiti. He recounts their personal connection, noting how Vonda debriefed him following his release from captivity, showcasing her role in understanding complex conflict scenarios.

Jeff Frazier [00:00]: "She's this strange combination of intense scholar and adrenaline junkie... She's gone behind enemy lines to get the most minute detail."

Dr. Felbab-Brown shares her journey, emphasizing her motivation rooted in fighting for marginalized communities and valuing freedoms influenced by her upbringing in Communist Czechoslovakia. Her commitment to telling the stories of those suffering under violent regimes and criminal organizations underscores her dedication to impactful research.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [05:35]: "I feel a commitment... to at least indirectly tell their story."

2. Methodology and Data Collection

Dr. Felbab-Brown outlines her comprehensive approach to researching Haiti, having conducted over 200 interviews with a diverse array of stakeholders, including political analysts, private security personnel, journalists, and members of international NGOs. Her method involves ground-level insights to provide a nuanced understanding of Haiti's volatile environment.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [08:38]: "...have been interviewing as many people who work in Haiti, live in Haiti, or who work on Haiti as possible."

3. Current Security Landscape in Haiti

Delving into her recent report for the US Institute for Peace, Dr. Felbab-Brown discusses the multifaceted nature of armed actors in Haiti. She critically assesses the Haitian National Police, various criminal gangs, militia groups, and the US-funded Multinational Security Support Mission (MSSM). Her analysis reveals that the MSSM's capacity is significantly undermatched against the burgeoning power of criminal gangs.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [11:34]: "The capacities of the multinational support mission were vastly inadequate for the violent situation and the power of the gangs."

4. Gang Dynamics and the Failure of Decapitation Strategies

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the effectiveness of high-value targeting, commonly known as "decapitation" strategies. Dr. Felbab-Brown argues that eliminating key gang leaders often fails to destabilize these groups, citing instances where gangs swiftly replace lost leadership or become even more entrenched following such actions.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [16:29]: "I do not subscribe to the quite commonly shared belief that high value targeting will be very effective."

She references the case of Iskar, a key leader of the Genine Alliance, whose assassination led to temporary internal strife but ultimately resulted in stronger consolidation of power by other leaders like Jimmy Charissier.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [17:42]: "...Jimmy Charissie was able to consolidate his power and arguably emerge even more powerful out of the shifting and out of the decapitation."

5. Rise of the Viva Ensam Alliance

The conversation highlights the formation and resilience of the Viva Ensam alliance, a coalition of gangs that has significantly influenced Haiti's political landscape. Despite internal challenges, the alliance has maintained its cohesion and posed a formidable threat to the Haitian government.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [21:15]: "Viva Ensam... being able to get rid of the Prime Minister Ariel Henry... they are saying that the price that used to be, the arrangements that used to be are now being profoundly renegotiated."

6. Technological Threats: The Role of Drones

Dr. Felbab-Brown addresses the emerging threat of drone technology in escalating violence. While currently, only the MSSM employs weaponized drones, the potential for gangs to adopt similar technologies poses a significant future risk.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [23:29]: "The Haitian gangs have only been using them for intel... but it's not very easy, not very difficult to weaponize it."

7. Aggression in Port-au-Prince and Societal Impact

Focusing on Port-au-Prince, particularly the upscale Kens Cough area, the discussion elaborates on the unprecedented aggression by gangs infiltrating previously secure neighborhoods. This move not only challenges the political and business elite but also exacerbates the city's siege-like conditions, leading to widespread displacement and humanitarian crises.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [26:05]: "...the gangs are coming closer to the political class and to the business class overall."

She paints a dire picture of daily life in Haiti, citing mass displacements, severe food insecurity, non-functional schools, and crippled healthcare systems, all compounded by the withdrawal of international humanitarian aid.

8. Potential Solutions and International Intervention

When discussing solutions, Dr. Felbab-Brown emphasizes the necessity for a significantly larger and more robust international force than the current MSSM. She critiques the historical inefficacy of UN-led missions like MINUSMA in Mali and underscores the operational challenges of expanding such missions in Haiti.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [34:24]: "The reality is that a small limited force... is just not going to cut it."

She also explores the controversial idea of deploying private Western security companies as a feasible alternative, cautioning against involving entities like Russia's Wagner Group due to geopolitical repercussions.

9. Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook

The discussion touches upon the potential geopolitical shifts should external forces become involved, highlighting concerns over US interests and the risk of Haiti aligning more closely with adversarial nations like Russia and China. Dr. Felbab-Brown warns of the destabilizing effects of such alliances, likening the possible outcomes to Somalia's collapse.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [38:01]: "It's both, you know, lack of justice, but it's also just repeating the same pattern that keeps bringing us to these moments..."

10. Conclusion and Call for Empathy

In her concluding remarks, Dr. Felbab-Brown advocates for empathy towards the Haitian populace, urging international support to prevent Haiti from descending into an outright crime state. She underscores the broader implications for global security and the rule of law, emphasizing that neglecting Haiti's plight could have detrimental effects beyond its borders.

Vonda Felbab-Brown [42:30]: "We need great empathy with the people in Haiti... anytime we allow as a country to treat people brutally because they don't have US Citizenship... we are just teaching US Law enforcement forces to one day start treating in the same way."

Jeff Frazier thanks Dr. Felbab-Brown for her invaluable insights, recognizing the critical nature of her work in shaping understanding and policy regarding Haiti's crisis.

Key Takeaways:

• Inadequate International Response: The current MSSM is insufficient to counter the growing power and political ambition of Haitian criminal gangs.

• Failure of Decapitation Strategies: Targeting high-value gang leaders does not effectively dismantle gangs and may lead to increased violence during leadership transitions.

• Rise of Powerful Alliances: Coalitions like Viva Ensam present significant challenges to the Haitian government, maintaining cohesion despite internal and external pressures.

• Technological Escalation: The potential weaponization of drones by gangs could further destabilize Haiti's security landscape.

• Humanitarian Crisis: Severe food insecurity, mass displacement, and crippled infrastructure highlight the urgent need for comprehensive humanitarian interventions.

• Geopolitical Risks: Without responsible international involvement, Haiti risks deeper alignment with adversarial nations, undermining regional stability.

• Empathy and Support: A compassionate and strategic approach is essential to prevent Haiti from becoming a haven for criminal activities, ensuring both humanitarian and global security interests are safeguarded.

This episode serves as a critical examination of Haiti's descent into a crime-ridden state, offering expert analysis and potential pathways to mitigate the crisis. Dr. Vonda Felbab-Brown’s insights are pivotal for policymakers, stakeholders, and anyone invested in the future of Haiti.