The STIMPACK Podcast — S3.E8: "Can AI bring peace to Haiti?"

Host: Jeff Frazier
Date: October 6, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Jeff Frazier, both an AI and Haiti expert, explores a provocative question: Can artificial intelligence ("AI") help deliver peace to Haiti—a country currently gripped by extreme violence, gang control, and political chaos? Jeff explains the recent development of "P Spot" (Haiti Peace Spot), an AI platform designed to generate actionable ideas and strategies for peacemaking in Haiti, and reflects on the broader implications of AI in governance and conflict resolution. The episode blends personal stories, practical analysis, and a candid look at forgiveness, justice, and negotiation in high-stakes contexts like Haiti.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Haiti’s Crisis and the Hope for AI

• [00:00] Jeff describes Haiti's current dire situation: gangs control 90% of the capital, and power struggles dominate among 23 political parties and international actors.
• The premise: Haiti's intractable issues might actually suit AI's capabilities—complexity and multi-variable dynamics.
• Jeff introduces "Haiti P Spot," an AI-driven platform designed to propose creative approaches for peace he hadn’t previously considered.

2. AI, Governance, and Kissinger’s Perspective

• Jeff discusses the book "Genesis" by Henry Kissinger and Eric Schmidt, emphasizing AI's potential not just for tech or healthcare but for government and lawmaking.
  • Quote [08:40]: “An AI governor might deliver truly unbeatable results.” — Henry Kissinger (as quoted by Jeff)
• AI’s adoption in government: As of 2025, a study found 44% of US state legislators already use generative AI for legislative work.
• The public’s growing trust and everyday use of AI in decision-making foreshadow wider societal integration, including potentially in conflict resolution.

3. What Is ‘Peace’—And What Stands in the Way?

• Everyone wants peace—on their own terms, which is why true peace is so elusive, both in everyday life and geopolitics.
  • [13:00] “We all want peace. But we're only interested if we get our stuff.” — Jeff
• In Haiti, elites demand peace by regaining control, while gangs want political legitimacy, economic power, and to keep their weapons—everyone wants peace as long as their terms are met.

4. The Forgiveness-Reconciliation-Judgment Spectrum

• Using personal anecdotes, Jeff explores what it means to forgive but not forget, and why full reconciliation isn’t always necessary or possible.
  • [17:00] Jeff’s story of being defrauded in business—he forgave but set healthy boundaries.
  • [20:00] Childhood tale of stealing coins and making restitution decades later: “He kind of let me fry in it...and then he replied and forgave me.” — Jeff
• More serious events: Jeff forgave the man who killed his mother, not forgetting or reconciling, but releasing bitterness through Christian faith.
  • [25:50] “I did the very difficult work of forgiving that man in my heart. … I luckily was able to let go of that bitterness, that three-headed monster of anger and grief and seeking justice.”
• Relates these struggles to Haitians: Is it reasonable to expect victims to reconcile with gang members still living among them? Can there be peace without justice?

5. Justice vs. Peace: What are Haitians Willing to Trade?

• [31:00] The imperfect trade-off: Immediate peace often means giving up justice. Elites may have to accept amnesty for gangs in exchange for security.
• Recent good news: UN Security Council has approved a "gang suppression force" (5,500 international troops), which may increase the prospects for both enforced justice and sustainable peace.
• Critical distinction: There are gradations in the peace process:
  • Ceasefire (short-term halt in violence)
  • Truce (longer-term but still limited agreement)
  • Full reconciliation (rare, requires rebuilding trust)
    A truce can stop killing even if parties still distrust each other.

6. Human Mediation vs. AI Mediation: Process and Limits

• Human negotiation is familiar: “A group of smart, talented, experienced people...who understand what it takes to bring people together to negotiate.”
  • Failures are common when interests are irreconcilable—Jeff notes recent negotiations where "everybody essentially walked away from the table."
• What can AI do better?
  • Massive data analysis: AI excels at finding needles in haystacks (vast datasets).
  • Ideation: Outputs exhaustive, often novel options (example: naming in ad agencies).
    • Quote [44:00]: “AI can come up with an exhaustive list of something—it’s really good at coming up with all of the ideas.”
  • Neutrality: Can be designed for unbiased, auditable decisions.
  • Multivariate analysis: Far surpasses human limits in handling many interlocking factors.
    • Jeff references the “multi-factor combination” scene from the movie Phenomenon.

7. The Haiti P Spot Platform: How AI Shapes Peace Proposals

• Actors & Power Topology:
  • Identified 42+ key stakeholders (gang leaders, CARICOM, World Bank, US State Dept, Haitian church, etc.).
  • Analyzed not just who they are but their power, coalitions, and what levers they control.
  • Used rubrics to assign quantitative values to qualitative power/influence.
• Instruments & Packages:
  • Cataloged ~180 “instruments” (incentives/interventions—many proven worldwide) and some creative AI-generated options.
  • Mapped which combinations would appeal to which actors/groups.
• Process:
  1. Map actors and their networks.
  2. Quantify power relationships.
  3. Cross-reference sets of peace instruments with each group’s demands and levers.
  4. Use AI to winnow down actionable, high-probability deals.
  5. Final output: A shortlist of truce items and packages most likely to be accepted—supported by "volumes of analysis."
  • [01:01:30] Jeff will share a site for others to explore the AI’s full work.

8. Strengths and Cautions: What AI Can and Can’t Do Yet

• AI is only as good as the intelligence fed into it: “It’s your classic garbage in, garbage out mechanism.”
• Real-world negotiations are still influenced by hidden motivations and confidential discussions not captured in news or open data.
• Despite limitations, Jeff—a seasoned expert—finds the outputs “fascinating and worthy of consideration.”

9. A Cautious Hope for Haiti

• Jeff is most excited that with a newly arriving gang suppression force, Haiti will soon have its "pieces in place" to operationalize a peace deal shaped by AI insights.
  • [01:06:00] “Once that gang suppression force hits the ground...we will have all the pieces in place to where we can get a deal done and get justice for these victims that have been enduring unspeakable atrocities for years now at the hands of these gang terrorists. And I'm deeply hopeful that finally we'll be able to celebrate a peace deal in Haiti. That's my prayer. I hope it's yours too.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Henry Kissinger on AI in governance:
  • "An AI governor might deliver truly unbeatable results." [08:40]
• On peace’s conditionality:
  • "We all want peace. But we're only interested if we get our stuff." [13:00]
• On the limits of reconciliation after trauma:
  • "Isn't it too much to ask them [Haitian victims] to reconcile with those captors...who have been raping and beating and torturing and kidnapping and burning their houses and their businesses, terrorizing these poor victims for years now?" [28:20]
• On AI’s brainstorming advantage:
  • "No man, no matter how intelligent...can ever come up with a list of things that would not occur to him. Of course that's true. But AI can." [44:00]
• A call for hope:
  • "I'm deeply hopeful that finally we'll be able to celebrate a peace deal in Haiti. That's my prayer. I hope it's yours too." [01:06:00]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 — Setting up Haiti’s crisis and the AI proposal (“P Spot”)
• 06:20 — “Genesis” book (Kissinger & Schmidt) and AI’s role in governance
• 13:00 — Universal desire for peace, but only on self-serving terms
• 17:00–28:00 — Forgiveness, forgetting, reconciliation, and justice (personal stories)
• 31:00 — The trade-off between justice and peace in Haiti; truce as a middle ground
• 36:00 — Announcement of the UN gang suppression force for Haiti
• 41:00 — Human vs. AI mediation: what AI does uniquely well
• 49:00–01:03:00 — In-depth explanation of the "Haiti P Spot" methodology and outputs
• 01:06:00 — Conclusion: Hope for an AI-facilitated peace deal

Conclusion

Jeff Frazier offers a compelling and candid look at Haiti’s problems, using both hard-won personal experience and technical expertise to argue that AI offers new, practical tools for peacebuilding. His AI-powered platform’s outputs, while imperfect, supply much-needed objectivity, creativity, and analytic rigor to a process long dominated by entrenched interests and short human memory. With renewed international support and AI-generated strategies, Haiti may be closer than ever to lasting peace.

[For further study, Jeff offers a link to a dedicated website where you can review the AI’s detailed analyses and proposals.]