Carville: Democrats Finally Have Shutdown Upper Hand — If They Don’t Blow It

Summary

The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: Carville: Democrats Finally Have Shutdown Upper Hand — If They Don’t Blow It
Date: October 9, 2025
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: James Carville

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Overview:

In this episode, veteran political journalist Tara Palmeri interviews legendary Democratic strategist James Carville. The conversation centers on the current government shutdown, Democratic strategy and prospects, party leadership, internal divisions, and the shifting power dynamics in American politics. Carville, known for his sharp wit and tough analysis, is surprisingly optimistic about the Democrats’ position—arguing that they finally have the upper hand in the shutdown standoff, and bigger wins may be on the horizon if they avoid self-sabotage.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Democrats and the Shutdown: Why Carville is Suddenly Optimistic

• Shutdown Dynamics:

  • Carville believes Democrats are in their strongest position in years regarding the government shutdown, citing that the public mostly blames Republicans (46% to 30%).

    "I don't know how you can have a better hand than they have where 46 to 30 people blame the Republicans and 72% want the subsidies extended." (Carville, 03:27)

  • He credits the shift to Republican overreach, mishandling of crucial issues like healthcare subsidies and Trump’s ignorance of key policy details.
  • The Democrats have turned the shutdown into a referendum on healthcare, which Carville calls a savvy move.

• The “Hand” Metaphor:

  • Carville likens politics to having a good sports “hand,” warning that a strong position doesn’t guarantee victory if mishandled.

    "You can have a really good hand and screw it up. Just the fact that you have a hand and you, you should win, it doesn't mean that you do." (Carville, 05:57)

• Public Perception:

  • He thinks the GOP lost the messaging war, as the public doesn't see Democrats as powerful enough to cause a shutdown—contradicting GOP narratives.

    "If they can't do anything, how can they shut the government down?" (Carville, 06:25)

• Trump’s Role:

  • Trump underestimated the impact of lost healthcare subsidies. Carville sees this as a major vulnerability.

    "He had no idea what they'd done to Medicaid or Medicare ... when you, somebody was getting a subsidy one day and they don't get it, the next they're going to notice." (Carville, 04:00–04:33)

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2. Electoral Prospects: Virginia, the House, and Redistricting

• Virginia Special Elections:

  • Carville is bullish on Democrats' chances in Virginia, dismissing GOP hopes and scandal narratives as wishful thinking.

    "They're not going to win this and they're not going to come close...Please talk about how you have a chance and we'll see what happens election night." (10:18)

  • He sees the shutdown’s local impact as an electoral asset for Democrats.

• Midterms & House Control:

  • Carville insists the Democrats must win back the House in 2026 for party survival, citing significant outperformance since the 2024 “catastrophe.”

    "Historically, Poland [sic] wise, everything in the world tells you that we should win in 2026, maybe by a lot." (11:07)

  • He is less worried about Republican-initiated redistricting, predicting it might ultimately backfire, especially in Texas.

• Catastrophe and Party Morale:

  • Carville reflects on the Democrats' post-2024 trough, calling it an inflection point:

    "The reason that people don't like the Democratic Party is the reason I don't like it because it lost. People don't like it when their party loses." (14:55)

  • Winning in Virginia and other elections, he says, will be critical to boosting morale and reversing perceptions of dysfunction.

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3. Democratic Leadership, Messaging, and Future Stars

• Party Stars:

  • Carville is newly encouraged by emerging Democratic leaders, mentioning Josh Shapiro, Raphael Warnock, Ruben Gallego, and Kentucky’s Andy Beshear.

    "When people see oh my God, but there's a guy from Kentucky, I didn't know if anybody...was a Democrat that even lived in Kentucky, much less want to constrain this year." (18:12)

  • He argues low expectations are now an advantage as new talent emerges.

• 2028 and the Democratic Divide:

  • He expects 2028 to be a true test between progressives and centrists, but firmly predicts another center-left nominee:

    "The Democratic Party is not the rank and file of the Democratic Party does not align with cultural NPR progressivism. It just doesn't." (20:33)

  • As for the left's desire for a “true progressive” nominee, Carville is dismissive:

    "Which is of course the most cockamamy thing I’ve ever heard in my life." (19:12)

• Primary Calendar and Voter Blocs:

  • South Carolina and Southern Black voters, he insists, will continue to be the lynchpin of Democratic presidential nominations.

    "Nominating a Democratic presidential candidate was, is, and should forever shall be Southern blacks." (25:13)

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4. 2024 Backlash, Kamala Harris’s “Revenge Tour,” and Score Settling

• Kamala Harris’s Book:

  • Carville is unsympathetic to Harris’s complaints in her new book:

    "I don't feel sorry for you by any stretch of the imagination. You've had a pretty successful career in politics." (28:15)

  • He accuses the 2024 Democratic establishment of shutting down necessary debate and stifling competitive processes, costing them the election.

    "You also shut down winning the election right away, now, didn't you?" (27:32)

• Organization vs. Message:

  • Carville says none of Harris’s ground-game advantages could offset the lack of a compelling reason for voters:

    "Reasons win elections. And if you're not willing to have a reason or your reason is not good, you cannot overcome that with superior organization." (31:14)

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5. GOP Dynamics and Republican Youth

• Trump, JD Vance, and the 2026 Field:

  • Carville sees Trump as increasingly out of step and unpredictable; dismisses GOP polling of JD Vance vs. Gavin Newsom as “useless” at this stage.

    "Maybe they're telling the truth, but that would be one of the rare times they are." (24:14)

• Turning Point and the Kirks:

  • He acknowledges the organizational efficacy of Turning Point, credits the late Charlie Kirk as a serious organizer, and notes that Erica Kirk's emergence is worth watching.

    "Turning Point is going to get a lot of attention here going forward. That's what I think." (51:50)

  • Carville’s key advice: always “follow the money.”

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6. Progressive Movements, David Hogg, and Intraparty Tensions

• David Hogg and “Leaders We Deserve”:
  • Carville is scathing toward Hogg’s approach, criticizing his dual roles as DNC official and insurgent, and calling his anti-consultant crusade naive:

    "He’s not had a good 20, 25 to say the least." (49:05)

  • He sees Hogg’s Super PAC spending and primary challenges as misguided and ineffective, underscoring that the progressive activist worldview is not as popular within the party as some imagine.

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7. Power, Justice, and the Epstein Story

• Abuse of Power as a Political Theme:

  • On the renewed interest in the Epstein case, Carville argues the true narrative is about abuse of power and systemic injustice, not salacious scandal:

    “A sex story is boring. A power story is confirming.” (42:05)

  • He believes framing these stories around class and power resonates across the political spectrum.

• Public Thirst for Accountability:

  • Carville contends the public’s perception of institutions like DOJ is shaped by the sense they shield the powerful, and that Democrats shouldn't let the need for transparency dissipate, even if disclosure is unlikely.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic Strategy:

  “You can have a really good hand and screw it up.” (Carville, 05:57)

• On Party Morale:

  “The reason that people don't like the Democratic Party is the reason I don't like it because it lost.” (Carville, 14:55)

• On Progressivism and 2028:

  “Every potential faction in a Democratic Party will run a candidate... I think they’re going to sort it out pretty well.” (Carville, 19:12)

• On Kamala Harris’s Score-Settling:

  "You did shut down, and your people intentionally shut down, the process...So you got what you wanted." (Carville, 28:15)

• On Power and the Epstein Scandal:

  “This is not a sex story. This is a power story.” (Carville, 39:20 & 42:05)

• On Grassroots vs. Reasons for Voting:

  “Yard signs don't win elections. All right? Phone banks don't win elections. Canvases don't win elections. Reasons win elections.” (Carville, 31:14)

• On David Hogg:

  “He’s making a pretty big fool of himself, I gotta say that.” (Carville, 49:46)

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Important Timestamps

| Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Carville on Dems’ shutdown leverage | 03:27 | | Carville’s sports/bridge “hand” metaphor | 05:57 | | GOP overreach, Dems as “constipated” | 06:25–07:39 | | Swing states, Virginia, & special elections | 09:05–10:46| | Discussion on redistricting, Texas, and youth | 12:09–13:35| | The 2024 “catastrophe” for Democrats | 13:35–15:24| | Carville on party’s need to ‘win’ to survive | 14:55 | | Future Dem stars – Shapiro, Beshear, etc. | 17:43–18:12| | On the party’s likely center-left direction | 20:02–20:33| | Analysis of Kamala Harris book/score settling | 27:59–29:07| | Grassroots vs. messaging, “Reasons win...” | 31:14 | | Progressive movement & David Hogg critiques | 44:42–49:46| | Epstein, DOJ, and abuse of power narrative | 37:31–42:05| | Turning Point, the Kirks, and youth organizing | 51:22–54:16|

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Tone and Style

As usual, the exchange is sharp, candid, and often biting, reflecting Carville’s “tough love” approach and Palmeri’s incisive, well-sourced questions. The episode combines humor, frustration, and strategic insight, balancing insider anecdotes with practical political analysis.

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For Listeners New and Returning

This episode is a must-hear for anyone curious about the 2025 political landscape: the internal logic and psychology of Democratic strategists, why Carville is (finally) hopeful, why the GOP is internally shaky, what young progressives get wrong about organizing, and how scandals reveal the deeper power dynamics of American politics.

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“The swamp is a place of many secrets and many it’s generally at the bottom of the swamp is one big giant pile of cash.”
— James Carville (54:53)

Transcript

[A]

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[A]

One of my favorite people when you're really scrappy and I like that.

[B]

Oh, thanks, James.

[A]

Scrappy journalists. You know, you kind of made your own weather. I love that.

[B]

Oh, that makes. That means a lot to me. Oh, thank you so much. Welcome to the Tara Palmieri Show. As you can hear, I sat down with the legendary Democratic strategist James Carville, the raging Cajun. And for once, he wasn't raging. He was optimistic. You heard him. He paid me a really nice compliment. He said, I make my own weather, which means so much to me as I have created this community that we're all a part of. The Tara Palmeri show, the Red Letter, based on investigative journalism holding truth to power. And I've loved seeing it grow. And I've. And it's all thanks to you and your support. But I had James back on the show because I've been talking to him for a while, since even before the Democrats lost the election in 2024. And he would say, you know, they're in the wilderness. They need to get some big wins. Like he was like the party needs to win. That's what he kept saying over and over again. But now he's saying that the party has finally found its groove. He thinks they're winning the shutdown messaging war and that Trump will inevitably cave on the Obamacare subsidies. And he thinks there's real momentum heading into the special elections in Virginia. Those elections aren't a month from now, but that's right. James Carville, the guy famous for tough love. It's the economy stupid and sharp elbows, is downright chipper about the Democrats. He told me there are actual stars in the party. Again, he said he hadn't seen stars in the party since 2012, and now there's wind at their back. He names a number of people that he thinks could lead the party, and of course, this is Carville. He's not pulling his punches. He's got some words for Kamala Harris, fresh off her book tour or revenge tour, depending on who you ask. And for David Hogg, the young activist he once sparred with on this show. The last debate ended in a sort of truce or a reconciliation, but this Time, not so much. But what I love about this conversation is that it shows a different side of Carville. Still sharp, still funny, but finally seeing a Democratic Party that he actually believes in. Take it all in. James Carville, still the master strategist, but now a hopeful one. James, thank you so much for joining the show. It's a pleasure. You always make so much news. The last time we were together, we had the debate with David Hogg, but this time we're back and the Democrats are in the middle of a shutdown. And you've always found a way to turn dysfunction into opportunity. And I'm wondering, how do you think the Democrats are handling the shutdown?

[A]

Well, actually, pretty good. I mean, I don't know how you can have a better hand than they have where 46 to 30 people blame the Republicans and 72% want the subsidies extended. So they have a pretty, pretty good. They got a pretty good hand and they plan it pretty good for now. And I don't think they're going to lose this.

[B]

Yeah, Trump's already talking about the subsidies himself, so he seems to be caving on his end.

[A]

So what I think really happened, he didn't when they went in, but Senator Schumer said he had no idea what they'd done to Medicaid or Medicare or anything like that. When they told him, he was kind of astonished. And I heard him doing an interview said, well, he's negotiating with the Democrats and it's going to be something terrific on health care. And then, of course, he backed off of that. I don't think, honestly, I don't think they tell him anything. Yeah, I don't think he has any.

[B]

I don't care about the details, James. He never has.

[A]

When they told him that all this is going to start expiring here in a certain time frame, he was kind of astonished that, I mean, when you, somebody was getting a subsidy one day and they don't get it, the next they're going to notice or somebody's getting payment and they don't get it, they're going to notice. And he didn't. My understanding is he didn't even understand that much. And those are his people now. He kind of understands it. And so the, probably the deal they working on is they'll get a vote on the extend the Obamacare subsidies.

[B]

So it's a win finally for Schumer.

[A]

You know, it's, it, it. I think that, you know, he's got three people in his caucus that have already gone, so he's got A hole. He can't lose a lot more. He's got a little bit of a, of a tough goal here. I mean, but you gotta express it. But I think he'll hold them together.

[B]

Yeah. I think Angus King, who's the independent from Maine, said he's no longer going to vote with Republicans anymore. He's over it. He's not voting for the clean continuing resolution that they've put forward. So it's only two now. Right.

[A]

I've had him on my podcast. He, he's not much of a Trump guy.

[B]

Right.

[A]

I don't know. Yeah, it, I think he'll, I think they understand that they're in a pretty good spot right now.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And you know, but look, I mean, I played sports, I played, used to play bridge and you can have a really good hand and screw it up. Just the fact that you have a hand and you, you should win, it doesn't mean that you do. You could. A lot of times you, you know, you fumble, you throw the ball away. So, but if we play it pretty down the middle here, I think we're going to win this thing.

[B]

I mean, they've turned it basically a referendum on health care. Do you think that was a smart move?

[A]

But understand, for nine months, and I think to some ways the Democrats have no power. The Republicans are getting everything they want. They're running rushed out of everything. The Democratic Party is pathetic. It's weak, it's old, it's urban, it's constipated, it's confused. And then the next day they said, oh, no, but they were responsible for the whole government shutting down. Well, the voter is going to look at that and say, well, if they can't do anything, how can they shut the government down? I mean, the Democrats are almost a beneficiary of the negative, negative observations that have been made about him since the election of last year.

[B]

It's like you can't punch down for so long. Right. They're not even really like a worthy opponent at this point.

[A]

Well, yeah. And people will say, well, how could they be at fault when they don't have any power? If we've been told by the Republicans, we've been told by the press that the Republicans have all the power, that they're getting everything they want. And then one day we wake up and we find out, well, no, they didn't have all the power, actually, the Democrats had all the power. Now you have to blame them. Well, that's a, that, that's like, what do you call it, Jumping the Shark or something like that. You're just going too far.

[B]

But if you look on any of the government websites, you will think that the radical liberal Democrats are causing the shutdown.

[A]

Yeah. The last person to look at a government website, raise your right hand.

[B]

Well, maybe it's on hud, the Housing and Urban Development one. So maybe you have to go to that. I don't know, maybe.

[A]

Look, they're going to do everything they can, but every number that I've seen on this in common sense tells you people are going to hold them more responsible than the Democrats by more than a little bit. It's just not the leap you're asking people to make. Is going from no power to power to in government as we know doesn't add up.

[B]

Right. Well, Trump got to avoid releasing another disastrous jobs report. So I guess the shutdown had some.

[A]

I wonder what that would have been. Has anybody. What's the speculation of what the Friday, last Friday report would have been supposed.

[B]

To not be Great. I don't know the actual numbers, but can imagine it's a good one.

[A]

That's why he's doing all this Chicago, Portland, this stuff. He thinks that's force people not to focus on economic issues or cost of living. I got news word but that's what he thinks.

[B]

Do you think this will have any impact on the midterms, the shutdown or even on the special elections coming up in Virginia and New Jersey?

[A]

I mean the Virginia thing is, you know, you mean this real? This is not something abstract to people particularly people live in Northern Virginia, but some extent live in Hampton Roads, Tidewater, you know, a lot of places. It's real. I think the most visited national park in the country is Shenandoah Skyline Drive.

[B]

Gorgeous.

[A]

Where I am right now. Look, we were cruising for a big win in Virginia. I think the Democrats still are, but when you're in that kind of position, you just want to get to election day and get it over with.

[B]

Right. I just had Jeff Rowe, you know him, the Republican mega consultant, on my show yesterday and he was saying that he thinks that they have a shot in Virginia, namely because the. I think that the. Was he the Attorney General? Yeah, that's running with Spanberger, has so much scandal involved with him that he was planning to shoot their majority leader. He had some text messages revealing that he wanted to actually murder him. I mean, what do you think? Does that have any impact?

[A]

So it's October. When this came, I guess it was October 2nd.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Election is in November. Look, I got standing bets with Piers Morgan Jesse Waters. I'd be glad to put him down for a thousand if he wants to. They're not going to win this and they're not going to come close, but let them keep saying that. Yeah. Okay. Please, please talk about how you have a chance and we'll see what happens election night.

[B]

You're so chipper today, James. I got you at a good time.

[A]

I'm chipper because I, I can see things are starting to line up in a little bit of a different direction also. Yeah, I think that we'll have a good night in Virginia.

[B]

Okay, so that's good to know. Is the House really in play? Do you think Democrats have a chance?

[A]

They better. If. If we don't win the house in 2026, it's going to be not very, not very good news for the, for the whole party. I mean, people are going to say what. I mean, historically, Poland wise, everything in the world tells you that we should win in 2026, maybe by a lot. I mean, if you just look at elections that have happened since the November catastrophe, we're outperforming by 15 points everywhere. Everywhere. Iowa, Florida, Georgia, I think even one in Alabama. You just can't now. I guess it could change and it's a little bit of a specialist, a little bit of a different electorate, blah, blah, blah. But we have law, we're winning everything. And not close, not at all close. That is it kind of underreported story that's going on out there that they're just not winning anything.

[B]

Yeah. What do you think about all these redistricting wars right now? Like if, say, somehow California Republicans seem, you know, win this and they're able to maintain the seats that they have. Plus Texas, I mean, are you concerned about that?

[A]

Yeah. I mean, who, who wouldn't be in a course? I had Leon Panetta on our podcast and, you know, most moderate, you know, let's try to sit down and work things out. He said he didn't have any choice. He's going to vote for the redistricting referendum in California because it's all you got. No one thinks this is a particularly good idea. I mean, no one wants to be the first person to use mustard gas. But if the other side uses it, what do you do? Yeah, I mean, they have. The other thing is, I'm not sure you should get some good quant zone like that. Really know Texas. I'm not sure that this is not going to backfire on them. In Texas. Really, really know a lot of other people, a lot of These districts, I'm told, I'm told I'm not a quant, were based a lot of the 2024 result where Trump did abnormally well among Hispanics. That's already reversed itself in pretty dramatic fashion, just like the youth vote. I mean, Della Volpe basically thinks the floor is falling out from under Trump above the under 35s.

[B]

James, sorry to go back, but you mentioned a catastrophe. What catastrophe were you talking about that you think has like flip the switch, the entire.

[A]

Catastrophe. I'm sorry, what was the context I used it in earlier?

[B]

You said that there was like a catastrophe that has flipped the switch. Like a moment that has changed the, has changed the tides for Democrats. What were you talking about?

[A]

I mean, I think, I mean a party, the image of the party is the low. It's true. It's the lowest of any political party in the history of Poland. And I think that there was a, a inflection point where Democrats could have just gotten so despondent that it would have, it would have caused real damage. I, for now I think that crisis has passed. Not saying it can't come back, but they seem to be pretty unified. They seem to have formulated a better argument and they seem to be winning this fight right now, which we haven't want anything, you know, a political fight other than the often mentioned elections I talk about. But anything that they put up is going to change the attitude of Democrats toward their own party. I think Virginia is going to go a long way because they're not ready for. They said, oh my God, we want something.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

The reason that people don't like the Democratic Party is the reason I don't like it because it lost. People don't like it when their party loses. They belong to a political party for a single reason and that is to win the election. We're finally starting to realize that our purpose is not to stimulate debate, not to form the future, not to do anything, is to win election. The next election that's coming up, that's the most important thing.

[B]

That's the rocket fuel for the next one.

[A]

That's it.

[B]

And also delivering on what you ran on, I would think how can you.

[A]

Deliver until you have power?

[B]

That's true. But if you don't deliver when you have power, I mean that's a pretty sure fire way not to get real. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations, I would think.

[A]

Or when everyone, 80% of the country or 76% of the country thinks you're too old and want something different, you resolutely refuse to give them anything else. And then when you finally do, you say you can't have anything different. By the way, we lose the election by 1.6 points. We actually pick up a House seat. We actually carry Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan that we lost the presidential popular vote. And I think that one of the things that Democrats have gone for us is we had a terrible election, but it's been reported as something is a complete and total collapse. The party no longer exists. That's just not true. It doesn't exist in certain parts of the country. And that was a self, inflicted, mostly self inflicted wound on ourselves by thinking that we was a certain kind of voter that we wanted and not another kind, which is pretty stupid.

[B]

But I think what the party might be missing right now, when you see the Republicans who have this cult of personality and you see Democrats who have this very disparate coalition which you've called a cumbersome coalition, is that you don't really have, you know, a unifying person behind it. You don't have an inspiring candidate, as you've said since, since 2012. I mean, is there anyone out there that you think could be that?

[A]

About five or six people really. One of the things that I think that that actually somewhat inerts the Democrats benefit is people think that we're inarticulate, that we urban, that we old.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And when they see the potential that we have in this party right now. Look, the guy, the Republican that's running for governor of New Jersey is trying to run is Josh Shapiro. When the guy from the other party in a neighboring state is trying to be you. You're pretty good politician.

[B]

Yeah, he's a talented politician.

[A]

And there's other. I'm not. Josh is clearly not the only one.

[B]

Who are the others to you?

[A]

I know everybody wants names and if I give names and somebody says you forgot them. But you know, and we all know any of these governors that are out there, you got senators like Warnock or Gallego, some of Alicia slot probably one cycle away from running as talented as anybody you can imagine. Look at crossing gutters. And when people see oh my God, but there's a guy from Kentucky, I didn't know if anybody. It was a Democrat that even Lived in Kentucky, much less want to constrain this year. Yeah, and they'll see that again and again and again because we now suffer from the. We don't suffer from it. We're going to be advantaged by low expectations because we have. The public has been told that there's no towel in the party. There's no everything. It's all, it's passed. It's this and that. Then as I pointed out earlier this year in the Times, now is not the time for these divisions. Come 2028, every potential faction in a Democratic Party will run a candidate. One person will win. And I'm pretty sure I know what side the equation, whoever that person is going to come from. And hopefully these progressive lefties will quit talking about oh, only if we ever gave the country a true progressive, they would be activated and come out of the woodwork to vote for us. Which is of course the most cockamamy thing I've ever heard in my life. But we're gonna, we're gonna settle that in 2028 because every potential wing of the party will probably have a candidate running and the Democratic voters are gonna going to sort it out. I think they're going to sort it out pretty well.

[B]

So I'm guessing you think that the center left will win.

[A]

I do. It never has not won.

[B]

What was that?

[A]

It never has not won. Maybe 72, but I don't even know if even McGovan was the most liberal person in 72. They certainly got waxed in 2020. Mean they had every, every left person you can think about in. And Biden ran away with it. They.

[B]

But there was sort of like a, you know, a come together of in 2016.

[A]

He didn't do that. Well, this. The Democratic Party is not the rank and file of the Democratic Party does not align with cultural NPR progressivism. It just doesn't.

[B]

What do you make of Zoran Mamdani and his rise?

[A]

Look, I got first. First of all, it is a big tent party. Secondly, he's actually running on what he's talking about is what voters are talking about. He's talking about the cost of living now all of the other Palestine and you know, his other stuff. That's not what he's running on. That's not what he's talking about. And look guys, 32, 33 years old. He said stupid things in his 20s. Well, everybody says stupid shit in their 20s, okay?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And they will be a Mandani kind of candidate running for president in 2028. And those people that think that that's the ascendant wing of the party will have a chance to, to prove it. I don't think they'll be able to do it, but they're certainly able to try.

[B]

I do, you know, I talk to a lot of Republicans and they're 10 terrified of Gavin Newsom. Why do you think that is?

[A]

Well, I don't know. First of all, whenever the Republicans tell you they're terrified of somebody, that's generally means that's the guy they want to run against. Just.

[B]

I know, I know, but he keeps coming up. They're like, they're like, JD like, they're, they're, they're pulling JD Versus Gavin, you know what I'm saying?

[A]

Like, there's, I mean, Nome is effective politician and he jumps, he's taken opportunities as they come, and he's setting himself out as the kind of face of the response to Trump. A lot of Democrats like that, to be honest with you, and he's pretty good at it. But when you run for president, it's going to take a little bit more than that. But he's very good and he has foil because Trump, since, you know, is always trying to send the National Guardian to do something in California. And so, so in, in Pritzker's had a little bit of the same opportunities. A lot of these guys don't have that opportunity, but it's, it's good. But I don't know how it's, if it's. Staying power is going to matter that much over a long period of time.

[B]

Yeah, it's not actually a good thing to burn too bright early on. Right. You got to last for three more years. He's not going to be in office. His, his, his governorship and like the state of California will be examined, obviously.

[A]

So it makes a good communicator. But my point here is there's so many. If you're not really good, you're going to get run over. All right. All right. And it's like anything else. When you, when the competition is good, you play up. It makes everybody play better. And so any of these people think about running for president, my message is, please do. Oh, it's going to be unruly. We're going to have a lot of people. I don't care.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But show that this party has really articulate people who really know how to frame a message, who know how to pivot, who know how to, how to, you know, attack, who are clever and good on their feet. And I think we have a Lot of these kind of people, and I think people are going to be startled when they see them because they've been told that they don't exist.

[B]

So Republicans have polled JD Against Gavin, and Gavin does win against JD and do you think it's. And when I talk to Republicans, they think that JD Will be the inevitable candidate. What do you think?

[A]

Maybe they're telling the truth, but that would be one of the rare times they are. But, yeah, he does look like he's putting himself in position to be. But Trump has said some kind of tepid things, right? I mean, it's not J.D. vance's party. I mean, it's, it's Trump's. And who knows what he's going to do? I, I, I, if you ask me my own opinion, he's slipping about a day. And some of the stuff that he's saying now, who knows what he's going to say going forward? But about JD Vance or about anybody else? I mean, I don't, I think it's very early, and I think a poll, Gavin Newsom, JD Vance poll, is pretty close to useless right now.

[B]

Yeah, no, I think you're right. But interesting anyway, nonetheless. So when you talk about finding a center or left candidate, obviously you have to think about the primary calendar. Democrats now have control over that since they showed in the last election that they could change it. What do you think the primary calendar should be?

[A]

The primary column should be what it always is, the single most important voting constituency. And nominating a Democratic presidential candidate was, is, and should forever shall be Southern blacks. It doesn't make a shit what happens in New Hampshire or you go here or you go there or something like that. It all happens when it starts in South Carolina and you have these Southern primaries. If you can't move the needle with Southern blacks, you cannot beat the Democratic nominee. So ask yourself that. There are two things when you evaluate a potential Democratic presidential candidate. One, can you raise a lot of money early? Governors of big states clearly in a position to do that. Two, do you have an entry point with Southern blacks? Will they pay attention to what you say? If you show up at a Sunday church service or you show up at a fish fry, will they, will they come in, let you make your pitch? Do you remember in 2020 in South Carolina, Cliven endorses Biden at the Thursday before I was there.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. It was over in one flick. Biden didn't even have a headquarters. All right. He didn't even have a campaign.

[B]

Clyburn also endorsed Kamala, though. And was very much a part of that.

[A]

Yeah. The whole 2024 thing was one of the great tragedies I've ever seen in American politics.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And now we're treated to. Everybody's writing a book, saying, well, I knew he shouldn't have run. I wish somebody would have said something. Well, guess what? People were saying something. You son of a. But you didn't say anything.

[B]

You were saying something. I was writing about it.

[A]

Yeah. No, I know, I know. But there were other people, and it was a real. In spite of all of that, we lose by 1.6. And we don't want that thing going away. If there would have been an open process and they were sitting there bragging about. Well, we shut down that open convention crap right away, now, didn't we? Yeah. You also shut down winning the election right away, now, didn't you?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I mean, that was a calculated decision they made that they would. Anybody that mentioned having an open convention, having a process going into Chicago was going to get crushed immediately. And they got what they wanted, and we lost the election. And it was bragging.

[B]

I know. It's insanity. Which brings me to Kamala Harris's book. What do you make of it?

[A]

Well, first of all, every losing presidential candidate, you know, writes a book as. And they have a perfect right, too. The one thing that did surprise me, I think thing is selling really well.

[B]

That's because it's kind of bitchy. I mean, let's be honest.

[A]

Yes, she kind of. You know, there's a little score settling in there. I frankly don't mind score selling. But you did shut down, and your people intentionally shut down the process. Have any kind of a contested thing going to Chicago. So you got what you wanted. How many people? So you were the DA Of San Francisco. You were the attorney general of California. You were United States senator from California. You were the vice president of the United States. You were the unopposed nominee of your party for the presidency of the United States. I don't feel sorry for you by any stretch of the imagination. You've had a pretty successful career in politics. All right. What? You don't really have a lot to complain about.

[B]

Do you get the sense from that book that that's her setting the stage to run again?

[A]

You know, I read a review, and the guy's really smart. I don't know him. His name is, like, Lozada or something.

[B]

Yeah, Carlos Lozada.

[A]

Really smart guy. He said, they write a book and they settle in scores, or they write a book and they're Trying to keep the door open for the future. And he. He said this book struck him is trying to accomplish both. And I didn't. I read about the book. I didn't read it, but I thought the guy had a really smart. I don't know him. I'm not. I don't think I've ever met him, but I thought it was a pretty smart. She was. Wanted to settle a few scores. She wanted to. In case. I don't think I'll say this very clearly. I don't think the Democrats got anything to do with anybody that had anything to do with 2024. Yeah, I think that's just a bad memory in people's minds.

[B]

I see. For me, I remember Gavin Newsom going out after the debate and being like, what you saw was totally fine. Look away. It great. And I just. I'll never forget that all the Democrats.

[A]

Who sort of covered famously said, I thought she would win. And I'll tell you what. Because I thought the Poland, as most people did it was. You couldn't discern it was that close going into final week of the election. And she had more volunteers. People called me saying, man, Bucks County, Pennsylvania, there's Harris. People lined up more storefront headquarters, more canvases, more phone, more everything. And it didn't do any good because there's nothing in politics can ever count more than a reason. That's the first thing I try to teach people. Yard signs don't win elections. All right? Phone banks don't win elections. Canvases don't win elections. Reasons win elections. And if you're not willing to have a reason or your reason is not good, you cannot overcome that with superior organization. It can't be done. And I'm just. And I, even I, who should have known better, thought, well, with everything being equal, it's got to be worth a three quarters of a point. It wasn't.

[B]

There was a lot of momentum going into Trump's. Into the election. You know, Trump had the assassination. There are a number of things I do want to mention. I do want to go back to the midterms for just one second, because there was one thing that Republicans have brought up to me a number of times, and this idea about Charlie Kirk's murder and how it will motivate the Republican base. And as we know, midterm elections are base elections. It's something that neither party has really experienced in a really long time. Roe compared it to, like, MLK for them. And, you know, do you think this phenomenon has just, like, woken up their Base in a way that they've never seen before. And this will get midterm voters that maybe aren't happy with Trump but just feel angry at the, at the left, off the couch. Are you worried about that at all?

[A]

I'll try to be polite. I'm skeptical of that argument.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

That thousands of people in November or early vote are going to be motivated by the tragic murder of a guy. Skeptical. But look, they, anything that comes up, they cling to it because that's what you do when you, you lose in every election around the country, about 15 points. I mean, these guys can read the election charts just like I do. All right? I'm not the only person that follows these special elections. They know it, they read it, they know what else is. Well, it's going to be the shutdown is going to say so, or Charlie Kirk's murder is going to save us. So this is going to save us. So the guy in Virginia, the AG candidate in Virginia is going to save us. And I mean, they're looking for apricot pits out there to cure themselves. And generally this stuff is not what's going to save you because you promised people, remember? But I would get cost down from day one. Okay, well, it's past day one and that's what you're living with. And you can, you can try everything else. And people see the dysfunction. They don't like it. They don't. They're really, you know, his approval is now like 40. I don't know how much lower you can go.

[B]

It's 43. But yeah, it's pretty bad.

[A]

Better polls are less. They throw in Trafalgar and that kind of stuff. But if I, when I look at the better polls, it's actually most of the party.

[B]

What do you think the message, though, should be going into the midterms? Like the unifying message across the board.

[A]

Repeal the big bad bill. They are. They've made all the wrong choices. They made the wrong choices on the veterans, made the wrong charges on health care. They made the wrong choice on rural health care. They made the wrong choices on, about everything. On taxation. They actually cut more taxes for rich people at the expense of everyday working people. We got to unify, reverse this right now. It's going to be about Trump. When people go to vote, there's no reason that they're going to give or we're going to give. That's going to overcome the idea. I like what I see going on with people. Total Republican control in Washington. And to me, the answer is going to be a resounding no. That. That. That's what it's going to be. It's.

[B]

It.

[A]

It. The Democrats don't have a message, James. Well, until you get a presidential candidate, it's kind of hard to have a message because the Democratic voters have to say, you never do this and they lose you. Then, okay, good. Well, then why are we winning elections? I mean, it's the same, you know, whiny crap I've been hearing forever, and you're not going to have. The best message we have is we're against what they have done. We want to correct these ills. We want to return to the real kind of values of the country. And we are hurting people who are trying to make it at the expense of people who already have it made. The very people who government already works for. They're doing more for them and less for you.

[B]

Yeah. So I. It's interesting because I didn't hear you talking about the affordability crisis. I would think that would be a sticking. Like that would be a very salient issue for Democrats right now.

[A]

Huge. He said from day one, I would run the tape on day one. I'm going to get costs down. And he actually says he's done it, which is the best.

[B]

That's it.

[A]

You don't see the problem. How can you fix it?

[B]

Right. I mean, he literally said he tweeted something out crazy today, like, everything's great, prices are down. It's like, wow, have you learned nothing?

[A]

He really thinks that. What? I think you should talk to your Republican friends. They don't tell him. They don't tell him. They just tell him everything's fine, you know, it's all working, sir. And he doesn't. So he just blurts out what he told again. He had no idea what that bill that passed did to health care. You could talk to Senator Schumer, talk to Hakeem, to Alita Jeffries, and they'll tell you he didn't. He had no idea what's in there. He doesn't. They don't tell him anything.

[B]

Well, he's not interested in policy. He's never going to read the bill.

[A]

I know that, but the public is interested. If a hospital closes, they get interested in it. Okay, Yeah, I know, but the problem is, not only does he not read the bill, they lie to him about what's in it because they just want to humor him. And the idea is just get in the office and get out without getting fired or screamed at. And so they just. They tell The King, whatever, whatever he wants to hear. No, no, we won. We won, sir. We won that battle. It's all, it's all fine.

[B]

Yeah. Do you think the Epstein story will stick and then motivate people to go out or is it just sort of a. Something that only a certain number of Democrats care about?

[A]

I think it'll sick. I think it'll vote on eight people to come out. All right. Yes. And to the extent that the Epstein story is a story of power, remember, the public looks at this and says, this is what I always thought. Here are these powerful people taking advantage of these young women getting a sweetheart deal where they, they don't even go to jail, if you will. They have all of this cover up and Prince Andrew and this and that. This is what if the story is told the correct way, it's. It's more than because to people. Sexual scandals. I remember doing the Clinton stuff going on. People.

[B]

Can you believe it?

[A]

What do you. What are we gonna tell the children? Just tell them what happened. You think I don't know about it? Oh my God. People having sex, the children. We can't tell them. Well, I know.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Trust me.

[B]

I mean, that was an abuse of power story as well.

[A]

The story is told from the vantage point of a typical power story. Then that's what, that's what people will perk up and have some blast in effect.

[B]

That's absolutely. And it doesn't die today, Pam Bondi.

[A]

Will testify because that narrative doesn't die. And of course the narrative you and I know is absolutely true. Nobody, a powerful, rich, connected guy could have remotely gotten away with this. And he got away with it for a long, long time.

[B]

Decades.

[A]

Yes, yes. This is a, this is not a sex story. This is a power story.

[B]

I've always said that. I also think it's a class story. And that's why universe, it, it unifies the UNI party in a way because that's what captivated the MAGA base.

[A]

Now you're coming now you're coming now. You got it now.

[B]

And that's what captivates the Democratic base now. And I think anyone can see that this is a story of young girls coming from the other side of the Palm beach intercoastal and men getting away with power.

[A]

This is the west side of the canal and the east side and west. But understand this power dynamic plays out in everyday life. We think it plays out in Hollywood or it plays out in Washington, Palm Beach, Palm Springs. That actually plays out at the Dollar General in, you know, Jonesboro Arkansas.

[B]

It's just a sense of injustice runs the.

[A]

The stock shelf. And the, the female, the young female that stocks the shelf. Well, you want to. That plays out all the time in every office and every. That you have that powerful people are always in particularly powerful men always looking for a way to gain an edge on less powerful females. That's not a thing that Washington thought up on its own.

[B]

Yeah, no, you're right. I do think. And this. I think the crime though is just so horrific. The fact that it's pedophilia, it's. It makes it.

[A]

Oh and you know, these people come back and they talk about their lives and I mean, I don't think. I mean I know that I. In the effect that this has had on them. I mean I'm not a very. I'm an older male but I have a pretty good idea and read about the repeat. You know, I was a cradle Catholic and altar boy. I think I was ever molested. I don't know. But okay, maybe something was wrong with me, but thank God I'm happy I never was. Right. But yeah, the effects of this is pretty well documented. It ruins these people's lives for forever. I mean and what they have taken away from these women. They're not even young women anymore.

[B]

No, they're my age.

[A]

Committed suicide.

[B]

A lot of them have. Virginia Duffrey has that.

[A]

Those stories have got to be. It's got to be told is what is. I'm serious here. It's more. A sex story is boring. A power story is confirming.

[B]

I agree. I mean I don't like to when I, when I report on this since I know it really well. I've done a number of podcasts. I've been Spend a lot of time with Virginia and others like I don't like the salacious details. I think it's a story about justice, a perversion of justice and you know.

[A]

So what's the next of you covering this? What? What? So Johnson doesn't want to swear it?

[B]

Mind blowing.

[A]

More guilty than you are.

[B]

I mean why don't you just sit.

[A]

There with a smoking nut?

[B]

I know, I know. They won't even confirm this woman so they can vote on the bill to command the DOJ to release the files. Even though the DOJ will never release the files. Let's be honest, Trump will veto it. It's just, it's next level too. What was that? I'm sorry.

[A]

The court ordered the doj. Can somebody. Is there any legal remedy to make them release the files?

[B]

I don't know, because they are the department. Like, they are, you know, the highest level of court. I guess maybe the Supreme Court. I don't know.

[A]

I don't know. But there's obviously a public thirst for this information, to put it mildly.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

All right, what's the reason? And if the Democrats, which is highly likely get the House back, I actually think it's more chance than most people to get the Senate back. But that's, we could talk about that another day. They subpoena the DOJ file, so you'd have to have a compelling reason to not comply with the subpoena.

[B]

I mean, people don't respond to subpoenas every day. Look at the people that they've subpoenaed for their House Oversight Commission, the president, Bill Clinton, who you worked with, the former Secretary of State, Hillary. She's not, they're not showing up. Trump was subpoenaed for the January 6th committee. He doesn't show up. There's. I don't know. I. Call me a skeptic, but I don't think the DOJ is going to hand over the files.

[A]

Probably not, but you can, you can make them. If they don't make them pay for it, why won't you? I mean, it's another example of Powell being protected. The Department of Justice is not there to protect you. It's not there to protect these women. It's not there to protect victims of sexual molestation. Is there to protect power and remind people of that, and they will believe it. That's an easy sell. That's the easiest sell in the world. So if they want to keep it, make them pay for it. Don't say, well, they're not going to turn it over, so forget about it. Let's move to the next thing. No, not the right answer.

[B]

Yeah, talk about David Hogg, because that's what kind of reconnected us. You know, we started, we had our, our debate, actually, when I launched the show with, with you and David. And you were pretty annoyed with him because he started this super pac Leaders We Deserve. And he launched it alongside of being the DNC Vice chair. And in his email out to DNC members, he was like, also support my super pac. And he vowed to, to take on incumbents as a member of the party to try to get rid of a culture of seniority. This was obviously extremely controversial at the time. I do think some of his points have merit, that, like, there are people who are sitting in Congress that probably need to retire. They've been there forever. They're going to die in their seats. And you know, we don't have term limits. A lot of people have many thoughts on this, some of which I agree with. But, but it seems that his organization has not really done that much. I mean they just endorsed state candidate, they just endorsed Congressman Donovan McKinney, he's a state rep to run against Sri Thanader. Sorry if I said her name wrong. And she's 70 in a largely Democratic Michigan district. He gave $300,000 to Zoramdani and you know, he gave some money to Deja Fox who lost by like 40 points.

[A]

I think.

[B]

Let me make sure I got that right. Yeah, he gave up. No, sorry $150,000 to 25 year old progressive influencer Deja Fox who lost by nearly 40 points with just 22% of the vote. They invested another 5,000 into Irene Shins campaign for Congress in Virginia. She lost by 45 points. And then you find out that they have been spending a ton of money on Digital ads like 1.1, they spent 2.5 million on consultants. They have, you know, spent $5,000 on class pass the, the fitness class subscription service which a lot of people might be like if donors knew that the people who are working for them are, you know, using the money to go to the gym. I don't know how they would feel about that. Wondering what do you think about all of this and how this is all panned out? Because I know after our show you gave him, you know, and the DNC was attacking him. They tried to, you know, obviously kick him out with some weird legality about the gender of the election, of the gender, you know, makeup of the, of the DNC election. What do you think of what he's done with, with this, with his organization?

[A]

That's something I can get my critique exactly right was you cannot be an official of the Democratic Party party and run against the people that you are supposed to represent and protect. If you want to be. If you think that it didn't, don't be a Democratic Party official. I thought the guy would say, well okay, I'll resign and do this or if I'm going to stay as the vice chair to dnc, I'm not going to oppose other Democrats. I thought that, I said to myself, well he's a young guy, he's kind of passionate. He said, you know, unfortunate things happen. He's like, I think the guy's just a fool. I think at the end of the day that. And they all have this premise. So he's Going to be different. He's not going to go. I'm not going to be part of the consultant class. That's that expression.

[B]

Okay, we've heard that one before. We've all heard that before.

[A]

The establishment. Yeah, the establishment of Carmel, Louisiana. Center of establishment politics. But forget that for a moment. They actually believe that if they did all of that, that they were these unmotivated people that at the sound of the true trumpet of progressivism, would rise up and lose by 35 instead of 40. Of course they were wrong. They lost by 40. The whole premise is wrong. And so then he's against the consultant class, but he's fought a consultant class that he hires. All right? I mean, actually, the guy couldn't be nice young. So he.

[B]

He has 25, I think. Yeah.

[A]

So whatever he can self correct here. But this, this guy has made one bad mistake after another. I mean, he's not had a good 20, 25 to say the least.

[B]

Yeah, well, he's out of the dnc. They got him out through a technicality. But this is. Yeah, this is not a great. Not a great run for having just started.

[A]

No. And you know, anybody can change. Like I say, who, who in their 20s doesn't make a fool of themselves? Well, kind of everybody. So I have a pretty wide strike zone. But he's. He's making a pretty big fool of it himself, I gotta say that. It.

[B]

I see it as a precursor to run for election.

[A]

Well, is he gonna run and what's he gonna win?

[B]

I mean, maybe.

[A]

Maybe he can go running. I don't know, somewhere. I have no idea. Why is he go. His candidates are not Parkland. Yeah, I mean, I, They. You gotta understand, these people are not popular in the Democratic Party and they don't understand that. They actually think that they're popular. David hall thinks he's popular among Virginia Democrats. He is no such thing. And if you tell them it doesn't do any good. They. They all know. James, you don't understand. There's all kinds of people that, you know just out there and they're just waiting.

[B]

Well, he. That's Parkland, Florida, actually. Let me look that up. If. Parkland, Florida, who's representative.

[A]

High school. That had a terrible. Yeah, Douglas. He had a. He has a story. He. He's.

[B]

Jared Moskowitz represents Parkland.

[A]

Okay. He's not gonna. Why? What's his reason?

[B]

Democrat.

[A]

Is. He went through his record. They were there and people are giving him money. I have no idea. Why don't you just throw the money away?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Is he giving him money to lose by 40 points and to hire his friends or to have, you know, workout benefits at the office? Yeah. I've worked in politics for a long time. We never had gym memberships. Yeah, you're supposed to be at the gym. You're supposed to be working.

[B]

One last question. I do see someone that people are starting to talk about, young female on the Republican side, Erica Kirk. What did you think of her at the, at the ceremony?

[A]

I mean, she clearly has some, some savvy about. I mean, I don't.

[B]

She's taking over Turning Points.

[A]

I think that there's Turning Point is going to get a lot of attention here going forward. That's what I think. I think that's. And, and, you know, let's see, let's see how it develops, you know, how, how much money they raise, which always follow the money. If, if it's Turning Point or if it's David Hogg or if it's anybody else, it's always a good idea to see where the money's coming from and where the money's going. It's always, to me, the most fruitful pursuit in all of political journalism.

[B]

Right. I remember. So they had a Turning Points inauguration ball this past year at this major ballroom, I think the Mandarin Oriental. First time I've seen anything like that. Turning Point since I've been covering him for many years, since all the CPAC visits, has always been a scrappy sort of organization that a lot of people in town just thought had a weak ground game and we're just kind of a mess. But, you know, because a lot of people credit him with delivering the election for Trump and getting the young people out. He, he had his, his ball and he's got, you know, big donors, and he, he basic made it a more reputable organization in a lot of ways.

[A]

I have had people that would not be sympathetic to Charlie Clark at all tell me that he was actually a very good political organizer in getting people out that most of these people had, you know, Laura Looma. Okay, just good.

[B]

You're friends with Laura. You didn't tell me that.

[A]

But I've had people tell me on the Democratic side say, look, the guy was very good at. He was. They're not Turning Point, but he was pretty good at organize people maybe. So I don't know that you cover him. You would know better than me.

[B]

He had a mixed reputation. It was a little messy.

[A]

Okay. But I think that the money will be followed in all these cases. And I think when it comes out it's going to be a lot was spent on very few. That's, that's what I think is this thing is going to end up going but let's wait and see. It's. I'm not a financial investigative journalist by any stretch of the imagination, but I understand there's some art at a. There's some interest in this topic.

[B]

The stories about how the organizers were sort of treated was sort of interesting. They were like stuffed into the back of vans and then like living on mattresses on the ground. It was just kind of messy during this last election and it's unclear if.

[A]

He took to take credit and how much of it actually gets to the organizer on the ground because everybody and we're going to find out that a lot of people had that cut before it actually the political dollar comes in a lot of hands on that before.

[B]

James knows all of the secrets of the swamp. So.

[A]

The swamp is a place of many secrets and many it's generally at the bottom of the swamp is one big giant pile of cash.

[B]

Well said. Thank you so much for coming on the show. I always enjoy having you.

[A]

You are just, I love doing your show. You one of my favorite people and you're really scrappy and I like that.

[B]

Oh, thanks, James.

[A]

Crappy journalist. You know, you, you kind of made your own weather. I love that.

[B]

Oh, that makes that means a lot to me. Oh, thank you so much.

[A]

Okay, well, good luck to you, Derek.

[B]

Thanks so much. Thank you again for joining the Tara Palmieri Show. If you, if you like this show, please subscribe, rate it, share it with all of your friends. If you like my journalism, go to tarapaulmary.com and sign up for my newsletter, the Red Letter, where you can get my exclusive reporting and analysis straight to your inbox. And it's a way to support my independent journalism. I want to thank my team, my producer Eric Abenate, my researcher Abby Baker, Adam Stewart, who does my thumbnails, and Dan Rosen, who is helping me with the my business strategy as the Red Letter community grows. Thank you all for all of your support and I will see you again this week.