The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: Carville: Democrats Finally Have Shutdown Upper Hand — If They Don’t Blow It
Date: October 9, 2025
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: James Carville

Overview:

In this episode, veteran political journalist Tara Palmeri interviews legendary Democratic strategist James Carville. The conversation centers on the current government shutdown, Democratic strategy and prospects, party leadership, internal divisions, and the shifting power dynamics in American politics. Carville, known for his sharp wit and tough analysis, is surprisingly optimistic about the Democrats’ position—arguing that they finally have the upper hand in the shutdown standoff, and bigger wins may be on the horizon if they avoid self-sabotage.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Democrats and the Shutdown: Why Carville is Suddenly Optimistic

• Shutdown Dynamics:

  • Carville believes Democrats are in their strongest position in years regarding the government shutdown, citing that the public mostly blames Republicans (46% to 30%).

    "I don't know how you can have a better hand than they have where 46 to 30 people blame the Republicans and 72% want the subsidies extended." (Carville, 03:27)

  • He credits the shift to Republican overreach, mishandling of crucial issues like healthcare subsidies and Trump’s ignorance of key policy details.
  • The Democrats have turned the shutdown into a referendum on healthcare, which Carville calls a savvy move.

• The “Hand” Metaphor:

  • Carville likens politics to having a good sports “hand,” warning that a strong position doesn’t guarantee victory if mishandled.

    "You can have a really good hand and screw it up. Just the fact that you have a hand and you, you should win, it doesn't mean that you do." (Carville, 05:57)

• Public Perception:

  • He thinks the GOP lost the messaging war, as the public doesn't see Democrats as powerful enough to cause a shutdown—contradicting GOP narratives.

    "If they can't do anything, how can they shut the government down?" (Carville, 06:25)

• Trump’s Role:

  • Trump underestimated the impact of lost healthcare subsidies. Carville sees this as a major vulnerability.

    "He had no idea what they'd done to Medicaid or Medicare ... when you, somebody was getting a subsidy one day and they don't get it, the next they're going to notice." (Carville, 04:00–04:33)

2. Electoral Prospects: Virginia, the House, and Redistricting

• Virginia Special Elections:

  • Carville is bullish on Democrats' chances in Virginia, dismissing GOP hopes and scandal narratives as wishful thinking.

    "They're not going to win this and they're not going to come close...Please talk about how you have a chance and we'll see what happens election night." (10:18)

  • He sees the shutdown’s local impact as an electoral asset for Democrats.

• Midterms & House Control:

  • Carville insists the Democrats must win back the House in 2026 for party survival, citing significant outperformance since the 2024 “catastrophe.”

    "Historically, Poland [sic] wise, everything in the world tells you that we should win in 2026, maybe by a lot." (11:07)

  • He is less worried about Republican-initiated redistricting, predicting it might ultimately backfire, especially in Texas.

• Catastrophe and Party Morale:

  • Carville reflects on the Democrats' post-2024 trough, calling it an inflection point:

    "The reason that people don't like the Democratic Party is the reason I don't like it because it lost. People don't like it when their party loses." (14:55)

  • Winning in Virginia and other elections, he says, will be critical to boosting morale and reversing perceptions of dysfunction.

3. Democratic Leadership, Messaging, and Future Stars

• Party Stars:

  • Carville is newly encouraged by emerging Democratic leaders, mentioning Josh Shapiro, Raphael Warnock, Ruben Gallego, and Kentucky’s Andy Beshear.

    "When people see oh my God, but there's a guy from Kentucky, I didn't know if anybody...was a Democrat that even lived in Kentucky, much less want to constrain this year." (18:12)

  • He argues low expectations are now an advantage as new talent emerges.

• 2028 and the Democratic Divide:

  • He expects 2028 to be a true test between progressives and centrists, but firmly predicts another center-left nominee:

    "The Democratic Party is not the rank and file of the Democratic Party does not align with cultural NPR progressivism. It just doesn't." (20:33)

  • As for the left's desire for a “true progressive” nominee, Carville is dismissive:

    "Which is of course the most cockamamy thing I’ve ever heard in my life." (19:12)

• Primary Calendar and Voter Blocs:

  • South Carolina and Southern Black voters, he insists, will continue to be the lynchpin of Democratic presidential nominations.

    "Nominating a Democratic presidential candidate was, is, and should forever shall be Southern blacks." (25:13)

4. 2024 Backlash, Kamala Harris’s “Revenge Tour,” and Score Settling

• Kamala Harris’s Book:

  • Carville is unsympathetic to Harris’s complaints in her new book:

    "I don't feel sorry for you by any stretch of the imagination. You've had a pretty successful career in politics." (28:15)

  • He accuses the 2024 Democratic establishment of shutting down necessary debate and stifling competitive processes, costing them the election.

    "You also shut down winning the election right away, now, didn't you?" (27:32)

• Organization vs. Message:

  • Carville says none of Harris’s ground-game advantages could offset the lack of a compelling reason for voters:

    "Reasons win elections. And if you're not willing to have a reason or your reason is not good, you cannot overcome that with superior organization." (31:14)

5. GOP Dynamics and Republican Youth

• Trump, JD Vance, and the 2026 Field:

  • Carville sees Trump as increasingly out of step and unpredictable; dismisses GOP polling of JD Vance vs. Gavin Newsom as “useless” at this stage.

    "Maybe they're telling the truth, but that would be one of the rare times they are." (24:14)

• Turning Point and the Kirks:

  • He acknowledges the organizational efficacy of Turning Point, credits the late Charlie Kirk as a serious organizer, and notes that Erica Kirk's emergence is worth watching.

    "Turning Point is going to get a lot of attention here going forward. That's what I think." (51:50)

  • Carville’s key advice: always “follow the money.”

6. Progressive Movements, David Hogg, and Intraparty Tensions

• David Hogg and “Leaders We Deserve”:
  • Carville is scathing toward Hogg’s approach, criticizing his dual roles as DNC official and insurgent, and calling his anti-consultant crusade naive:

    "He’s not had a good 20, 25 to say the least." (49:05)

  • He sees Hogg’s Super PAC spending and primary challenges as misguided and ineffective, underscoring that the progressive activist worldview is not as popular within the party as some imagine.

7. Power, Justice, and the Epstein Story

• Abuse of Power as a Political Theme:

  • On the renewed interest in the Epstein case, Carville argues the true narrative is about abuse of power and systemic injustice, not salacious scandal:

    “A sex story is boring. A power story is confirming.” (42:05)

  • He believes framing these stories around class and power resonates across the political spectrum.

• Public Thirst for Accountability:

  • Carville contends the public’s perception of institutions like DOJ is shaped by the sense they shield the powerful, and that Democrats shouldn't let the need for transparency dissipate, even if disclosure is unlikely.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic Strategy:

  “You can have a really good hand and screw it up.” (Carville, 05:57)

• On Party Morale:

  “The reason that people don't like the Democratic Party is the reason I don't like it because it lost.” (Carville, 14:55)

• On Progressivism and 2028:

  “Every potential faction in a Democratic Party will run a candidate... I think they’re going to sort it out pretty well.” (Carville, 19:12)

• On Kamala Harris’s Score-Settling:

  "You did shut down, and your people intentionally shut down, the process...So you got what you wanted." (Carville, 28:15)

• On Power and the Epstein Scandal:

  “This is not a sex story. This is a power story.” (Carville, 39:20 & 42:05)

• On Grassroots vs. Reasons for Voting:

  “Yard signs don't win elections. All right? Phone banks don't win elections. Canvases don't win elections. Reasons win elections.” (Carville, 31:14)

• On David Hogg:

  “He’s making a pretty big fool of himself, I gotta say that.” (Carville, 49:46)

Important Timestamps

| Topic | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Carville on Dems’ shutdown leverage | 03:27 | | Carville’s sports/bridge “hand” metaphor | 05:57 | | GOP overreach, Dems as “constipated” | 06:25–07:39 | | Swing states, Virginia, & special elections | 09:05–10:46| | Discussion on redistricting, Texas, and youth | 12:09–13:35| | The 2024 “catastrophe” for Democrats | 13:35–15:24| | Carville on party’s need to ‘win’ to survive | 14:55 | | Future Dem stars – Shapiro, Beshear, etc. | 17:43–18:12| | On the party’s likely center-left direction | 20:02–20:33| | Analysis of Kamala Harris book/score settling | 27:59–29:07| | Grassroots vs. messaging, “Reasons win...” | 31:14 | | Progressive movement & David Hogg critiques | 44:42–49:46| | Epstein, DOJ, and abuse of power narrative | 37:31–42:05| | Turning Point, the Kirks, and youth organizing | 51:22–54:16|

Tone and Style

As usual, the exchange is sharp, candid, and often biting, reflecting Carville’s “tough love” approach and Palmeri’s incisive, well-sourced questions. The episode combines humor, frustration, and strategic insight, balancing insider anecdotes with practical political analysis.

For Listeners New and Returning

This episode is a must-hear for anyone curious about the 2025 political landscape: the internal logic and psychology of Democratic strategists, why Carville is (finally) hopeful, why the GOP is internally shaky, what young progressives get wrong about organizing, and how scandals reveal the deeper power dynamics of American politics.

“The swamp is a place of many secrets and many it’s generally at the bottom of the swamp is one big giant pile of cash.”
— James Carville (54:53)