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Welcome to the Tara Palmari show and the Red Letter. We've got Ross Barkin on the line. And Ross, I had him on the show the day before the election, the primary election. We saw each other at a substack party. And Ross was pretty clear with me. He's like, you're gonna do a really big win, mom. Donnie's gonna crush it. And I thought that was really interesting because at the time, you know, Cuomo had all this money. He had the institutions behind him, real estate donors, and I mean, you saw Zoran start to surge in the polls, but you were so confident that this was going to be a massive upset. I was really impressed. And I've been following your reporting ever since. Obviously, Ross and I go way back. Some of you may not know this about me and my long journey as a journalist. I was a city hall reporter for about a year at the New York Post, which you wrote about today. And I will talk about that. It's a very influential news paper, an angry tabloid, but it has a lot of heft. And you can make a mistake by crossing the New York Post, as you wrote about, and how what de Blasio did actually during the time when I was reporting for them. And it's, you know, it's. It's just, you know, this is a really kind of whirlwind moment because it's not so much the fact that we're almost certain that Zoram Ondani is going to win. It's a question of, like, how much does he win by is over 50%. What does his mandate look like? And then what are the ripple effects around the country? The Democratic Party, how do they handle him? So, Ross, like, what are you feeling right now? What are you thinking? What is the energy you're getting from the campaign? What are they looking out for?
A
Yeah, I mean, I think I'm, you know, like many people, I mean, pretty confident Zoran Mohan is going to win and be the next mayor. I guess the last question is, you know, there's one poll from, from Atlas Intel. They're highly pollster. They've showed a very close race, but they're also the outlier. Most polls show 10 to 15 points. They've shown around 4. I thought Nate Silver actually did a good piece this afternoon about the race and how the problem for Cuomo is he's just not very popular. Like, he's very high negative. So it's like, even if Mamdani starts to slip, which is very possible, you know, there's been a lot of negative ads against him. He has weaknesses as being a 34 year old Democratic socialist in Cuomo. His negatives are just so much higher than you'd see out of like a typical mayoral candidate. He's so well defined, it's very hard to see what his winning coalition looks like. And turnout is very high right now. Turnout might be the highest in could be 60, 60 years in New York City for a mayor race. So very big, right? And so Cuomo's people think, talking to them yesterday, they think that's good for them. They're convinced the big electorate, you're going to have like shy Cuomo voters and people coming out, coming out against Mamdani. I am not convinced by that at all. I think, like, I think Silver made a good point today that the enthusiasm is so much with the Mamnani side over the Cuomo side. I mean, it is night and day where you can go to polling places and just talk to people. People are very excited to vote for Zoron voters. It's more like we don't like Zoron. We don't trust him or he's not experienced or he's too left wing. I guess we'll vote for Cuomo or for Sliwa, the Republican. But you don't. There's, there's a huge enthusiasm gap here. So I mean, just the race today, it's certainly Zorons to lose. The 50 question is a big one. I tend to think he will break 50, but it's important for him to do it. I mean, if he's under 50, when you, you're asking about what comes next, I do think step one is if he wins it with a plurality but not a majority, you know, there will be questions about, you know, the mandate, sort of his political capital, these kind of like invisible things that do weigh on politicians. So I think for him, getting over 50 is something that is important in this race. It's not everything if a win's a win, but it would mean a lot to him because there's, there's a narrative out there, you know, really being pushed by the Cuomo side that Sliwa is, is siphoning votes. He's a spoiler, of course. He's the Republican. Cuomo is the independent.
B
Cuomo just got an endorsement from Trump, right?
A
Donald Trump, saying very, very unequivocally he prefers Cuomo in this race.
B
Yeah.
A
And Cuomo is actively courting Republicans. And that's.
B
Right.
A
That's sort of his last gambit is to bring in Republicans and sort of try to have a broad coalition of moderate Dems, Republicans, independents. I don't think it'll be broad enough, especially just with the enthusiasm on the Mamnani side and just the sheer number of people who are showing up. A lot of them are going to be coming out from Mamdani stronghold. So I, I expect him to win. And yeah, I think if he wins by a lot. Right. He comes into the mandate, he gets over 50. That's. There are. That's where the implications will be great for great in terms of like, important for the national party, for the Democratic establishment. You know, they can't hide from him. I mean, you can say it's New York City, it's not America. And that is true. But I think it's important to look at New York the way you look at Virginia, for example, because New York City basically has the population of Virginia. It's about 8 million. Yeah, it's like almost the same. So it's like, yes, New York is very Democratic compared to America. It was a 70, 30 for or 68. About 68. 30 for Kamala. But then you could say that about Democratic states as well. So, you know, if a socialist won a big state that leans left, you, you, you'd say that's a very big deal. So I think there are real implications in this race, and it is something, you know, some of the Democratic Party have embraced him. I mean, not just progressives, but you've seen some moderates, like Alyssa Slotkin. She comes immediately. A few said, you know, he spoke about affordability. He's a good messenger. We can learn something from him. And you have those who just shunned him totally, who've either criticized him or like Chuck Schumer, I think taking the true cowards way out and, and basically saying nothing. I think if you want to be a moderate and say, not the Democratic Party, we don't want this, I think that's in your right to do it. Obviously, if you want to embrace Zoran Maldani, that's your right to do it. But I do find the Schumer stance rather exasperating, and I think most Democrats feel that way. I mean, there's a reason that the base of the Democratic Party right now dislikes its leaders. And that's the first time, I'm sure. The same with you Or I don't recall a Senate, a Senate minority leader and a House minority leader being so disliked within the Democratic Party. You know, Pelosi was always well liked. Harry Reid was well liked. I mean, there's like they, if you pulled like the Democrats, like the voters today, if somehow they could choose their leaders, which they can, I think Jeffries and Schumer would be thrown out. I don't think they any kind of national vote. And that, that is, that is different than what we used to see. So I think Zoran Manning, in a way, he's a part of that. I mean, there's a lot of people who are voting in New York who are progressive and leftist and even socialists who like what he's saying. But there's also a faction of people which I think this is something Republicans miss or some miss. Not all that. There are parallels with Trump where there was a Republican electorate in 2016 that was very dissatisfied, the leaders of their party and they fight her. They chose disruptor and that's what he did. Mamdani, like Trump in that election, is beating Democratic establishment now. Trump remade the Republican establishment as the president. I don't know if the Rahmani as a mayor can do that. That's a much bigger question and I to predict that at all. I think the Democratic establishment is very broad and sprawling and one mayor can't do that. But there is something to it. I mean, if he wins and wins by a lot, it is a realignment election. It is a new era. It's a new era in New York City politics, certainly. And I think there are, you know, you can look at a race where it's going to be, gosh, when they count votes, I don't know, 2 million plus people are going to vote in this general election. That's a lot.
B
That's a lot of. That's a big turnout for an off year.
A
It's when AOC won, you know, the talking point was, which was fair, that it was one congressional race in New York City against Joe Crowley, who lived in Virginia, didn't campaign. And it was maybe 40,000 people voted in that race. Perhaps, I'm not even sure. And yeah, you could, you could knock it and say, listen, why is she the spokesperson for anything when she won a House race, right? It's like, all right, well, Zoran Maldani, if he wins today, will have won two, like high turnout elections in America's biggest city. You can't hand wave it away as much as I think there's like a faction of Democrats want to do that, you can't. And for Republicans, I mean, they're going to want to make him the foil and the boogeyman. We all know that. But that's also an old story. I mean, Nancy Pelosi has been being put into attack ads, you know, for 20 years. So in one hand, yes, Mamdani could be a drag on moderates in swing districts. At the same time, I'm not convinced that voters in, you know, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to be motivated all that much by like a negative Zoron ad. But, you know, we'll see.
B
Yeah. And you know, it's interesting because his messaging is just so similar to Trump's messaging. He wrote in on the same wave of affordability. The New York Times reported that he was advised to focus on security in the city and he chose instead to ride in on affordability. And it was a really salient issue. And I think it's something that as much as Republicans see him as a bogeyman, they should be concerned about a candidate who is doing so well with a populist affordability message because it's a sign that there are promises are falling short in a time when we have high cost of living, inflation at all time highs, every thing. President Trump promised that the price of groceries would go down. And here we are. I do want to remind everyone that tonight Ross and I will both be at the election night party for Zoran Mamdani. I will be there with the Associated Press. I'll be commentating with their team on the ground at the Zoran Mamdani party. It'll most likely be a victory party, but they will not only be covering, you know, that, that new oral mayoral race, they will also be covering New Jersey, Virginia, Prop 50 in California and a number of other races that are a little bit more minor but matter. And I think for Democrats right now, they are desperate to get their mojo back. Right? I mean, they abysmal polling stink of Biden on them still. And the loss in 2024, I think there's a, they just need a really good night and they need like a straight of wins from New Jersey to Virginia. Obviously in New York they're not going to have to worry about that.
A
But.
B
And it looks like In California, Prop 50, you, it looks like they're on their way. Spanberger, too. Abigail Spanberger, a Blue Dog Democrat in Virginia, looks like she'll win. It's, it's pretty clear. But Mikey Sheryl in New Jersey, not so much. It's interesting because I'm actually from that district that she's from, which is a longtime Republican district in New Jersey. And I don't know, Jersey is weird. Like, you have to remember, like, white ethnics in Jersey were one of the first groups, Italian Americans, particularly, to come out for Trump. Trump gets huge CR crowds in Jersey. Atlantic City, Black African Americans came out for him. Hispanics, they're the town that I went to high school, the county I went to high school in, Passaic County. They have a huge Hispanic community. And Republicans have all eyes on that because Trump was able to win over a number of Hispanic voters. Now question is, is immigration, you know, and his policies is aggressive. ICE policy is going to have an impact on that. Are they even going to go out and vote at all? But it seems like everyone's a little nervous about Mikey Sheryl, because she's only up by a few points. Like four points. I think so. Still within the margin of error. DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse is the one stop shop for all your footwear needs with sneakers, boots, and everything in between for every style, mood and occasion. You'll definitely find shoes that get you at prices that get your budget. DSW has what you need, but more importantly, they have what you didn't even know you wanted.
A
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A
I mean, my assumption is she'll win. I think with the early voting numbers, they've been pretty good for the Democrats. So it would surprise me if she lost. But she's clearly not the best candidate. She's not really exciting voters, all that. It seems like she seems a bit milquetoast. But yeah, I'm curious about the also New Jersey, the Latino vote, because Trump last year flipped so many Latinos in New Jersey. I mean, obviously across America. But I mean, I think it's Hudson County. I mean, some of these counties really went white red. Can't. Will that hold? I do think this election is very interesting because there's a lot of talk last year about realignment. My sense Latino voters generally is they're really more of a swing vote than one that's going to realign one way or the other. So I think with this race, can Sheryl claw back some of that vote? Will Trump's, you know, Trump's ICE basically turn Latinos back to the Democratic Party? I mean, there's a whole alternate universe where Trump looks at the Hispanic realignment of last year and goes, we can toughen the border because clearly that's what they want. But we're not going to be overly antagonistic towards this kind of new ethnic, newer ethnic group into the Republican Party. You know, we're not going to literally send ICE agents to terrorize their neighbors. And you see ICE agents picking up citizens as well. You know, it's not. And you know, obviously in most cases, people are not committing crimes. So you know that that's, that's a political choice. So we'll see. Will Trump be punished? The Republican Party. But you know, in some ways, everything turn comes down to referendum on Trump. Will New Jersey be that? I think that's going to be very interesting. My sense is either way, Cheryl will win. I think Virginia also goes to the Democrats. ImProp50 is going to pass. I think this will be a bit like 2017. Similar. You had a very good night for Democrats that year. You kind of saw the beginnings of a blue wave. Obviously, they took the House the next year, did not take the Senate. So I, I'm guessing it's going to head in that direction again. I would be surprised if Democrats really took it on the chin tonight. Like, I think more likely is they have a very good night now. You never want to overread things. As you learned in 2022, the whole Democratic midterm that convinced Joe Biden to run again, which was an awful decision. One I did call out time a very, very low to do.
B
Same here. I was also a lonely bird out there.
A
I don't. Did you get. When I remember I wrote a column in 2022 about how Biden for New York Mag, how Biden should quit while he's ahead. He has accomplishments. It's time to back down and have a primary. And I got like, very visceral. I remember.
B
Oh, yeah, no, same when I was at Puck. I wrote about it and people were like, furious. They were so mad.
A
Yeah, Totally shocked me. I. I had a similar experience when In September of 2024 I'd sort of stopped being bullish on Harris. I was like, I never thought very highly of her, but.
B
Oh, I was never bullish. I always thought there should have been a primary. Like literally recorded it before they agreed to nominate her.
A
I thought they should have had a primary. I mean, more like in August of 2014. I'm like, okay, like, maybe she win. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe she's got going. Then in September, I'm like, and probably not. And I wrote a. I wrote a piece in substack about how she was dodging the media and this was bad, and she should actually go out and talk to reporters.
B
The same thing. Wrote the same thing for Puck.
A
It was crazy. She went like a month and did one cable TV hit. I mean, it was nuts. And I got the reactions I got to that substack. Still to this day were some of the most furious I've gotten, like, for anything. I've written some, you know, other sort of more. More contrarian pieces. That one to this day, the. The blue, sort of like blue people, Democrat, like, furious Democrats. But I. But I think they feel burned now. I do think now you had a lot of those people, right, who are very furious at people like us saying, Biden should run again, Harris is bad candidate. And now they're like, yeah, I mean, we did get screwed over by these people. And now they're mad at Schumer and Jeffries. Like, I do think there is. Yeah, I, I see it just anecdotally, just talking to, you know, very middle of the road Democrats who typically would just say, yeah, of course. I mean, Chuck Schumer, we know him, he's great. And they don't feel that way. I mean, I mean, they are done with him. I do think AOC will run in 28 for the Senate. That's my guess. That's my strong guess. I think if Schumer is smart, he'll retire. I think if he's got, you know, his political acumen left and he wants to go out on top and they.
B
Never retire, though, Ross, then he's gonna.
A
I think he'll lose, honestly. I think if there's a 28 primary. Yeah. Not going to be just AOC too. I mean, I think a lot of ambitious for them. You never know.
B
Yeah.
A
In New York, it's crazy. I mean, New York State, 1998, the last time we had like a Senate primary on the Democratic side, like a real one.
B
So, yeah, Joe lebron was picked and.
A
Yeah, and she's another one. I mean, it's amazing. Walk to another term in 2024. I think there's a lot of Democrats who are like, why didn't no one run against her?
B
Well, I think Zoran Mamdani is going to absolutely encourage these people to look in the mirror and say, okay, I may not be a white person that, you know, is a background in politics or, you know, been spending time with the DNC or the DSA or whatever, but I think I can try this.
A
So I think so I think Gillibrand's very lucky. She's until 2030. But I think in 2030 to while from now she'll get a challenge. And I think Schumer, I feel very confident, as confident, honestly as Zoran winning that in 28, Schumer, if he does not retire, gets a primary. And I think it could be AOC on Schumer. It could be a multi candidate field. Like I think, I think a lot of ambitious Dems are going to look at that race and think, you know, I can raise money, I can get people excited. I mean, someone like Tish James, I'm kind of like surprised there's more, not more chatter around her jumping over to the Senate in 28. I mean, she'll be older by then, but she's got a lot of energy. The Democratic base likes her. Someone like that, it wouldn't shock me if she put it together. You know, she could push Schumer out. And Jeff Jeffries is the other one where I don't think Jeffries. I think it's very hard to beat Jeffries in a primary, but it's not impossible. I was talking some, some political operatives in New York and they're like, yeah, you know, look at Jeffrey's district now. Like it's got a real kind of like zoron young person, you'd say, like gentrify belt, whatever want to call it. It sits in his district. He also has a lot of homeowners and kind of more moderate black and white voters. But it's the kind of district where you've got to be mindful and I think for him gave his tepid Zoran endorsement, which is more than Schumer could do. But you know, he. Will he get primary next year? I don't know. My guess is probably not. But it's also. He's a guy where he needs to look over his shoulder and there's not.
B
Yeah, no, there are people already getting ready. You know that.
A
Yes, the one, everyone.
B
Well, because I think he didn't have to fight for it with Pelosi, but I, you know, giving him that, that role. But I do want to get back to this race tonight, the New York City may roll race. And let's just talk about how we got here with these three candidates.
A
Such a strange race. Yeah, I know.
B
It's just so weird. Momdani pulling at zero. At one point.
A
Over a year ago, he was literally. I went to his launch event, you know, I'd spoken to him about the race beforehand and basically the feeling was he was confident. I thought, I thought he could do well. But I think neither of us a year ago would talk about like victory. It'd be like there's, there's a lane here, right? There's a lane. Or sort of progressives and people like dissatisfied with the status quo. There's something you can latch on to. Now. The, the big question which he answered at the time, I would not have felt confident if you found me a year ago I would not have said Zoran Malnani is going to win the primary by 13 points. No way. Would never have said that. I would have said he can be competitive, watch for him. But I don't know who's going to win that primary. I was never that bullish in Cuomo. I went. Cuomo was the polling leader for many months. I, I remember when he was got in I was writing things like he's not inevitable now. I also this kind of happened with Harris.
B
I love that you're a contrarian, Ross. We, you know, we share that contrarian spirit. But I think that's part of being a clear eyed journalist. Don't go with the, don't go with the, the way the trends and the weather vein.
A
I'll say like in May I was very my by like late May. I'm like, okay, Cuomo's been ahead for this long maybe, I mean my gut isn't right. Maybe he's just gonna like push through. And I think what you saw, basically we saw the Cuomo. I mean two things happened in the primary and we'll talk to the general. Two things happened this primary. Zoran Mani Rani. Fantastic campaign. That was a once in a generation of political talent. Even his detractors will say that, you know, this is someone, you know, he has what Obama had, what AOC has to an extent. You know, also a weird name.
B
Like who would have ever thought a guy named Zoran Mamdani captivating people's imagination.
A
It's. And he's got a, you know, he comes from privilege. But he also has a great New York story. Yes. Like he grew up wealthy. Can't argue that. But right. He's an immigrant kid, went to public high school. You know, he's clearly of the city. Something Cuomo's gotten entirely wrong about him especially in these last few weeks as the race got nasty is they're trying to make Zaron out to be like this other. Like Cuomo said he doesn't have like New York values and understand like 9 11, like really some really wacky stuff. And it's like New York characters are on my money. I Grew up around Zoran Mamdani's kids who spoke multiple languages, born elsewhere, didn't become citizens until they were older. So very common. But anyway, you know, Cuomo, so Zoran ran a great campaign, right? The primary, impeccable, but amazing Social media.
B
It was like made for the moment.
A
Absolutely. Just subverted, subverted the entire system through like just great use of social media, great message, the affordability, authenticity, all that was true. Also what helped him, you can't argue this, is he had a horrible front runner. Horrible. Not, not even in terms of like the policy, but just like politically like a. Cuomo ran what I found to be the very worst front running campaign I've ever witnessed.
B
It makes Hillary such a strong sense of entitlement. I'm sorry, but that is the only word that I can feel when I.
A
When I, if you are, if I were Andrew Cuomo in the situation he was in, he announced in March of 20, this, this March after he's rumored for like six months. Right. I'd be like, all right, listen, I know I, you know, disappointed people while.
B
Grandma touched a lot of women.
A
I think you have to do at least, like. And it's very hard for him to apologize. He never does it. But I think you have to do some sort of reckoning with your past and show right to a degree. And then you have to go on a listening tour and talk to a lot of voters and get in the streets and do, do campaigning.
B
He's not winning Republicans in the way that Trump was winning Republicans and could say, I have no apology. You're dealing with Democrats in New York City. You have to acknowledge like the sexual harassment complaints. You can't just be like, my daughters tell me it's weird and I don't understand it and they're being too tough on me. He's just, he didn't get it.
A
Yeah, he didn't run.
B
Like you said, it was a Rose Garden campaign. He doesn't like retail politics.
A
No, he, he hates retail politics. And what shot was not shocking, wasn't shocking, but was notable was there were all these forums during the primary. You know, every, like civic group, local groups, they'll have like these candidate forums. They're not, they're not quite debates. Like, the candidates will show up, they'll be together, sometimes they'll be apart. And it's what all, all candidates do. You go to these things. Voters are there, you talk, you take questions. Cuomo would like, skip all of them. Like, like all of it. He never, it was like a running joke. Like, it'd be. So there's. There Sauron, there's Adrian Adams, there's Brad Lander. No Cuomo. I mean, it was amazing. Total entitlement, no retail campaigning. Barely any. Any interviews either. I mean, I think he did a little, like, a little press. Not a lot, really. Avoided the press as much as was humanly possible. And then he got throttled. I mean, absolutely throttled. Lost by 13 points. And it was a combination of Zoran's, you know, great appeal, but also Cuomo's great failure. You know, these. These things went together and. And he. And he's someone. Even when he was coming back, you know. You know, months ago, you know, he was such a known quantity. He was governor for over a decade. You know, it's very hard to reinvent yourself. It's very hard to push your high negatives down, especially when you make an effort to do it and you made none. So he was a guy. He had the arrogance, the entitlement. Look what I built. Look what a great governor I was. He'd go out and talk and just, like, list accomplishments as if people really care that you remodeled LaGuardia Airport. It's, like, nice, but what do you want? Why do you want to be mayor? And that's. That's another thing he couldn't answer at any point. Why do you want to be mayor of New York City? What do you want to do?
B
In some ways, reminds me, so my leg. So my. The obituary doesn't say disgraced governor of New York.
A
That's the real answer.
B
Like, I live in White Plains, and I'm living in my daughter's apartment.
A
And no, just no feel for the city, and just a real. A real disdain for the city. I mean, that's something that came across. New Yorkers want a mayor. I think the mayors that do well in New York, generally speaking, are those who seem to, like, love the job. I think de Blasio for this. I think de Blasio had accomplishments as mayor. I'm a de Blasio apologist, but I'll say he made a ton of mistakes, and you never got the sense he'd relish the role. He always seemed a bit put off by the whole thing. And he wants go travel, he wants to do the national. And the fact that I went to.
B
Paris with him once, why the f was like going to Paris as a City hall reporter with the mayor.
A
The funniest one was he went to Iowa in 2016 to doorknock for Hillary Clinton. And this is like, the weirdest Is the mayor of New York City on a door? Why? What are you doing?
B
Well, because he ran in 2020.
A
Yes. And of course it didn't work out. I think one of the great answers Zoran gave in the primary debate when he got the Israel, I mean, Israel hall sign, talked about that forever. And Zaron being pro Palestine and Israel skeptical, to say the least. In, in the debate, they asked one of the moderators, like, when are you, when do you plan to visit Israel? Like, this is what they do in debates. They ask you, are you going to visit Israel? And, and Zoran says, well, I'm not going anywhere. I'm the mayor of New York City. I'm not going to take any travel. I'm staying here. And I think that answer Bloomberg, who.
B
Would go to Bermuda on the weekend.
A
Go every other basic.
B
During like snowstorms.
A
Yes, he, he get, he'd get out. And I think New Yorkers want someone who's going to be in the muck with them and really the job. And it's very clear that even if you dislike Zoran, you saw someone with great enthusiasm for New York City, for campaigning, for being in the mix. Like, he's obviously a guy. You feel it like he wants to be in the streets and he wants to do the job. Like, like he has the energy, he's ready to do it. You might say he'll do a bad job. You might hate his policies. But it's clear he likes it, I think in the way how Trump like loves politics. Like Trump wants to be president. He wants to be in the mix. Like he kind of, he loves the.
B
Performative part of politics for sure. He loves the performative part of being president. He likes the, he likes to have the cameras on. He likes to show the handshake and the talks and the diplomacy. I do want to talk though about like what he is promising Mamdani and what can he, what kind of challenges can he face within City Hall? A Mochi moment from Mark, who writes, I just want to thank you for making GLP1s affordable. What would have been over a thousand dollars a month is just $99 a month with Mochi money shouldn't be a barrier to healthy weight. Three months in and I have smaller jeans and a bigger wallet. You're the best.
A
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B
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A
So break down kind of his big, his, his major promises. Right. It's the, the tree buses. It's universal childcare. It's the rent freeze and rent stabilized apartments. City run grocery stores. Those are kind of like the big four. There's other ones too.
B
Raise taxes on the wealthy, but he can't really do that, right?
A
Raise corporate taxes and high income earners. Yes. So can those be achieved? The answer is maybe with. With some much more achievable than others. He can eventually freeze the rent and rent stabilized apartments. The mayor appoints the right guidelines board. Eric Adams might stack it with his own appointees before he leaves. But even then, those terms expire eventually. So if Xoran has to wait till year three, he waits till year three. I mean that's just how it is. Eventually he'll get the chance. He'll get it. It'll happen. Universal child care is very popular. Kathy Hochul supports it. The state legislature supports it. She's entering her reelection next year. Getting some form of childcare expansion in New York City is going to be like a political winner. It's very expensive. The program Xeron is calling for, it'd be five months to five years, six billion a year. It's a lot of money now. Could you do half of it? Could you start with a. Could you gradually expand it out? You know, we have upk, Universal Pre K in New York City. De Blasio is pushing into.
B
We already have 3K, right? Don't we already have 3K?
A
We kind of. De Blasio is rolling it out. I then Adams kind of start to scuttle it. I think it's a good question. I don't have children, so I would know more if I had children. But I believe there's like a form of 3K. But Adams was, and I would argue not a good mayor and he was really mismanaging upk and 3k. I don't actually know the state of 3k. So there are those first few years where parents are paying a lot of money. If you're not, if you're not getting Head Start, you're paying tons of money for child care and that New Yorkers. So I think child care is doable for him. I think it's going to take money from the state. Yes, you want a tax increase to pay for it, but if you don't get a tax increase. UPK was funded with state money, city money as well. You can get creative with budgets. It's not a crazy thing to do. Every year the mayor and the governor negotiate. There's. It's a big budget and also Kathy.
B
May need his help with progressive voters if she's running for reelection. Right.
A
And I think that's her calculus and at least the phonics attacking her for it. But I think Coco's making what's probably the better of the two bets. Right. Especially in a statewide election. New York City is in part of it. It's a huge part of the. But general, what saved her against Lee Zeldin four years ago, she almost lost or three years ago, was big turnout in New York City. Like people kind of woke up at the last minute. Maga, Republican, might be our next governor. Probably should go vote if you're a Democrat. And she got a lot of turnout out of Manhattan and Brooklyn. So I think that's where she's going.
B
So childcare, I think the Senate is Democratic too, right? In, in Albany, yes.
A
It wasn't when Blasia, when you were there, de Blasio, the Republican Senate, very different.
B
It was kind of fun to watch. And also he and Cuomo had a.
A
Horrible relationship, which was Cuomo. Cuomo had no interest in working with him and the Republican Senate had no interest in working with the Blasio. Of course, now Zorron has to deal with the federal situation. A hostile Trump saying, I'm going to send ICE agents, I'm going to send National Guard, I'm going to withhold money from the federal government. That's way worse than what de Blasio dealt with. But within New York State, he's got a much easier hand to deal with. You have a friendly governor and you have a state legislature. It's also very friendly, Democrat dominated. Some Democrats don't love him up there, but overall they're going to want to be friendly than hostile. So I think childcare is like a maybe, but it's possible because it's broadly popular. It's kind of something everyone wants. Buses actually doable too, because they're a lot less expensive. You're talking. It's at 800 million a year. They estimate for free bus program. 800 mil in a 200 billion budget is not a lot of money. Even in the same budget, you're talking $100 billion. So again, like, like childcare, I can see it coming in piecemeal. You start with pilot programs, you do it in, like parts of different boroughs. You're not going to wave a wand. Just have it all in March. Right. It's going to be important for getting to these things. So I think buses, yes. Possible childcare, possible. We're talking city owned.
B
Yeah, city owned. Groceries.
A
He's proposing five of them. It's probably the least ambitious part of his agenda, honestly. I think the way I think that the best criticism of it I've heard is that, you know, it's five stores. If you don't live near the store, it won't impact your life at all, which is true. If you live near it, it'll be cool. I think it's, it's very possible. I mean, if the city can't run five grocery stores and we should pack it up as a city, honestly. So that's the one that always provokes like a weird amount of backlash because you get like stuff. But oh, it's like Soviet, it's communist. It's like, it's five, it's five stories like, relax.
B
Is there anywhere else in America that has city run grocery stores?
A
No, that, that's the one Kansas City tried, didn't work out. That is the one thing I would say of all his agenda proposals, they all have antecedents elsewhere or they have like partial, it's free buses. Like Boston has like a partial, I think a partial free bus program with Michelle Wu. But yeah, I mean, the grocery store, you know, it's like on one hand, out in a limb, the other hand, why can't New York City lead the way? And having one per borough, it's not that hard. You find, you find some property, you pick someone to manage it. You can subsidize. They're not free. They're just being subsidized by the city. So you have cheap items. It'll be like a city run Costco. You know, it'll, it'll be fine. Now tax hikes, of course, are going to be a challenge. I think Hochul has said no. She's also waffled a bit. I think you've heard, you've seen her softening a little bit. I think his tax hike proposals are fairly modest. Remember, Cuomo raised taxes too, basically against his will. The legislature in 2021 forced his hand. He didn't want to. So this is, this is the one thing when I get a lot of people who question his agenda. I think a lot is fair game with Zuron, including his lack of experience. Experience, including his past comments. I think I think you can criticize him all you want. I think the thing that I, I do find for people don't know New York that well, they act like what is in this sort of basic, you know, sort of what he, they act like what he's proposing is highfalutin and far Fetched and crazy, when in fact all of it's in the realm of possibility. It's a lot of. It's just about negotiation. It's really about going to Albany. And you can go to Albany. It's very Tubal. Mayors do it all the time. Time. De Blasio had a very hard time because of Cuomo, but Cuomo is not there anymore. Hochul is a normal center left Democrat. So she'll say no to things, she'll say yes to things. It's a negotiation. Maybe he gets a smaller tax hike. Maybe Hochul just says, listen, instead of a tax hike, here's some money for some of your programs. Now, the challenge is there are projected budget polls next year. Now, projections don't always equal reality. Like right now, there's talk of a fairly big gap at time, the same state budget level. But budget holes do close. Wall street had a good year so far. So the revenues are up in New York City. So that'll probably help budget, budgetary matters. So we'll see all these things. He's not going to get it all done right away. He might not get all of it done in four years, you know, might be mayor eight years, assuming he wins tonight. So it's, it's, it's, it's a process. And I think that's the thing, people, you know, from covering New York City in New York State state that you can have proposals, then you have negotiations and you get to a point where you can maybe claim victory or you can begin the process of working towards your policy goal.
B
Yeah. I mean, what can we learn from de Blasio and defund the police? Because, you know, Mamdani seems to be on an apology tour, which I think is fine. He went on Fox, he apologized. My, my producer, Eric said it was, he was a squish for doing that. I thought that that was probably the best course.
A
Yeah.
B
And the right venue because the, the police can basically veto your, your mayorship. Like, can you explain that to our listeners? Like how powerful the police force is in New York City.
A
So de Blasio is very much undone by poor relations with his nypd. De Blasio, in his defense, tried. I, I think one thing Zoran has, has sort of some, some currents working against him and some working sort of in his favor. I say against him is that he's more radical than Bill de Blasio and that Bill de Blasio did not campaign on defunding. Zuron's not campaigning on it. Bill de Blasio never called as A candidate to defund the police. And he brought in Bill Bratton and he. And he talked about police reform, but he didn't quite have the same history Xeron does with dsa. Now, Zoran has walked away from those comments and he said he'd appoint Jessica Tisch, reappoint her. She's Eric Adams as police commissioner. She's well liked by a lot of moderates. The police are very powerful. They have strong unions. Traditionally, the union bosses were major political figures. They aren't any longer, which helps. Zoran. When we were in City Hall, Pat lynch ran the pba. Pat lynch was like having Donald Trump run your pba. Like he had the. He had the charisma of a Trump. He was incredibly inflammatory. He was also very savvy, honestly savvier than Trump. And he, he foiled multiple mayors. And Michael Bloomberg fought with Pat lynch. De Blasio, I mean, really undone year one, de Blasio, Eric Garner, and then you had to.
B
The police turn their backs on. On de Blasio when he would show up at events at the.
A
So they turned at the cop funerals when there were two officers. The end of 2014, two officers were killed execution style. And I believe in their. In their cars. And de Blasio, you know, who is really trying to speak the language of police reform, especially after Stop and Frisk had escalated under Bloomberg. He'd become unpopular with the department. Yes. And he went to the police funerals. They turned their backs on him. And it was very indelible image. And in some ways, he never quite recovered. It was very hard for him politically to have the police being so hostile to him all the time. And also having police union bosses being very aligned against him and bosses who knew how to use the media very well, whether it's Pat lynch, this guy Ed Mullins, who's, since, I think, gone to prison, who's had the sergeants union. It was. It was a difficult time for de Blasio. I think Zoran, similarly, is going to have to deal with a department that will be hostile to him, that will challenge him. Now, interestingly enough, because of the Zeitgeist, criminal justice reform and police reform has not been a big part of this campaign at all. Remember, in 2013, de Blasio ran on having a biracial family and reducing Stop and Frisk and resetting the relationship between police and the African American community. It's a big part of his campaign here with Zoran. It's interesting. Sort of Black Lives Matter has petered out. There isn't talk about police brutality anymore.
B
He didn't run on it either. On safety?
A
No, didn't really run on it. He has his Department of Community Safety proposal, which actually isn't that radical. It's to send mental health professionals, pair them with police to respond to mental health distress calls. These are programs that are used in other cities. New York City actually had a pilot program under de Blasio. I think Adam scuttled it up in Harlem. So there. And police themselves don't want to respond to mental health calls. So it's actually something that's more pro police than it looks. If you talk to police, they'll say, yeah, I'm not a social worker. I don't want to just show up. If someone's having, you know, a schizophrenic episode, I'd like to have a professional with me who can help handle it. Right. You're not just sending a social worker in by themselves. You pair them up. So I think it's a reasonable proposal. I think it's one that won't cost much more money and it will probably be implemented. So it is interesting with criminal justice and with public safety that it just isn't as much in the atmosphere. Crime has continued to decline. New York is posting very low violent crime numbers. That's also true in a lot of American cities. Now you've really seen the pandemic crime spike start to off quite a bit. So that that helps Zoran, that that works to his favor. Four years ago, crime was rising. Eric Adams won a law and order platform in that type of campaign. Xeron might have had a harder time here. Public safety is not the top issue. It is affordability.
B
So, yeah, I want to ask you about the divide within the Democratic Party between progressives and centrists. And I think we're going to have to at some point get into the Israel of it all.
A
Yes, that's a big part of it. So, you know, the divide is long, simmering. Right. You can take it back to 2016, Bernie versus Hillary. You know, in some ways, the modern rift begins there. AOC taking out Joe Crowley, you know, there, there. There have just been ongoing tension that sort of. I went into. Receded slightly when Biden was president because you had a Democratic president and Biden was willing to work with progressives. It felt like some of those disagreements were put on the back burner, especially with people like AOC and Bernie backing Biden. If you remember when a lot were calling for Biden to drop out, many.
B
People, he did put Lena Khan in The White House had a very progressive policy with the bill back better. And he, he was, he ended up being a very progressive president.
A
He was. And I think that was why in some ways you saw a bit of a detente between the moderate and the progressive wing. Those debates, you know, took a back seat now since Harris has lost. It kind of. It reminds me a bit of in 2016, seen when Hillary lost. All those tensions come back to the surface. Trump is present again. So a lot of the divides are back. You know, you have like new debates, like the abundance movement, which is sort of on the moderate end of things, but has some progressive support. You got like the popular ists and kind of those who say we have to run, you know, more anti abortion candidates in red states. And you have those types of fights, I think also, I mean, Israel, Palestine is the big one now. I do liken it somewhat to, to the Vietnam war in the 1960s. It's not quite as dominant since Americans aren't going to fight. But if you look at like the divide in the Democratic Party over Vietnam, you're seeing something similar with Israel, Palestine, where it's very generational as Vietnam was. Israel, Palestine really breaks down. If you talk to voters under 40, they are deeply hostile to Israel and much more supportive of Palestinian rights, which.
B
Has shifted, by the way, since he even launched this campaign. And I think that the figures now are 80% are pro Palestine at this point among Democrats. But he took a risk early on because it was divided, I would say. Right. I mean, it's like 50.
A
I mean, these politics, I mean, Zoran's politics being pro bds, saying you'll arrest Netanyahu, saying that you think there's a part in the west bank saying Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. I mean, these are politics. When we were covering politics at City Hall a decade ago, unheard of.
B
Why would the mayor weigh in on this?
A
No, they would, but they'd just be pro Israel. De Blasio is very pro Israel.
B
Right, right, right.
A
Now, I remember that in 2014, it was not as severe, but there was like an Israel Gaza war. They're shooting rockets at each other. And I remember there were these like rallies. I went and covered them where all the Democratic elected officials would just line up for Israel. There was no, there was no counterweight. There was no such, There was no Such thing in the 2010s, no such thing really, as a elected official, certainly a Democrat. And we've got the Republicans, but no Democrat who was pro Palestine who would say, I think what's happening in the west bank is bad, didn't exist. And even progressives like de Blasio were very pro Israel. That shift began to happen.
B
That's why he went to Paris, actually. There was an attack in, in a Jewish neighborhood in Paris.
A
Yeah, yeah.
B
That's why I went with him. Now that I'm flashing back to it.
A
All, every mayor has traveled to Israel. De Blasio did Israel, obviously Adams is on Israel. Cuomo did his Israel trip. They all, they all do it. Right. So that was politics till the 2000s, and certainly it was burbling up before October 7th. I think the, the undercurrents were there. But October 7th changed things dramatically. You had the Hamas attacks, which were brutal, and you had Israel's response, which I think even I'd say the sane defenders of Israel would say are disproportionate, or they would say Netanyahu's response was not the most strategic. Right. If you actually want to get the hostages back, why are you waging like a multi year, kind of like total warfare invasion of Gaza and killing almost 70,000 people, many of them. The number of children dead is striking. You're talking about close to 20,000, a number that is hard to fathom. The kids that are dead and you cannot say these are Hamas combatants, you know, these are children. So that is hard to defend. And you take already this sort of untenable position of Israel being a country that is a democracy, but is also an ethnostate. I mean, I'm Jewish, so I understand the appeal of Israel. I get it very much. My father lived on kibbutz. I know the world well. But it is, it is. There's a contradiction about Israel. I'm not going to get too deep into it, but ethnostate versus democracy, anyway, the bigger point is it got harder and harder if you're a progressive Democrat, to be pro Israel. It just makes less sense when the country is governed by the right wing. It kind of comes down to that, who's in power in Israel? It's right wing political parties that Netanyahu must.
B
Trump's advisors helping Netanyahu win reelection.
A
Yeah, yeah. It's a conservative, politically conservative country. The labor left in Israel is dead. So if you're, if you're a Democrat or a liberal person, there's less to like about Israel. And after October 7th and after the war, it just became more untenable. And I think a lot of taboos were lifted. I do think there were a lot of younger voters who looked at the situation and said this is all quite bad. You had certainly, you know. Yes, you, you can. People blame tick tock for things. I mean, tick tock matters, but tick tock matters only in the sense that it was bringing images to light that were real images. These weren't. It wasn't AI imagery.
B
Yeah. The Israeli government says it's all propaganda.
A
Each side's got its propaganda. I'm not saying Hamas.
B
No, yeah, they do. I mean there's, they're, they're influencing right wing influencers, not we. You saw that Netanyahu movie meeting with them. I do think.
A
It'S not. It's not. I'd say that the short answer is this divide is not going away and it's going to be very generational. I do think for the pro Israel Democrats, they have to worry a lot because I think they've lost people under 40 and I don't think they're getting them back. I'd say that that's my ultimate take for takeaway from all this.
B
Okay, I do want to play one clip that just came out from Andy Ogles, who is a House Freedom Caucus member and he's sharing an ad centered around 911 and Islamophobia. Because obviously this has been. Oh, actually I'm told by my producer we shouldn't play it. Never mind. We are not going to play it. But you guys can check it out for yourself. It's, it's just the two to the two twin towers being hit. But I, I have heard that there are ads that, that target Mamdani and Tie him to 9 11.
A
Yes, very much so. And they've used the workaround that he's, he's friendly with Hassan Piker. He's been on his Show Back in 2019, Piker said America deserved 9 11. Now I actually went back and like watched the clip and read about this. He's clearly joking and he did apologize. It's not a good joke, but you know, he's a twitch. People talk crap on twitch. And he apologized in 2019. So bad joke. Zoran. You could, you could argue Zoran should have condemned Hassan Piker, maybe not been friends with him. But other than that there's nothing to tie Zoran to any of this. But yes, there have been ads repeatedly running where you see like the Twin Towers. There's one where pod appears on, on Zuron's face there, There has been a, a real, I would say Islamophobic current running through this Merrell race in these final weeks. You saw less of it in the primary. I do think Cuomo, seeing that his attacks in the primary failed has now made it more personal and start talking about Zaran being from Uganda using his full Ron Kwame Mamdani in the way Barack Hussein Obama became a dog whistle back in the 2000s. And, and, and you see it. I mean I think the, the good news I would say for those who dislike Islamophobia is I don't think it'll be successful. I think New York is not a very Islamophobic place anymore. I think people are much more accepting of Muslims and of other religions broadly. And I think the attacks are falling flat. But yes, I mean there has been, I think, I think part of the visceral reaction to Mamnani, some of it because he's a socialist.
B
It's also been distant since 9 11. Like there has different. How many years it been 30 years now? 20 years?
A
24 years?
B
Yeah, 24 years.
A
It's a long time. And I also just think, I do think some of the reaction to him as a candidate is because of his faith. There are people. I was on a debate stage the other night sort of with unheard. It was a debate over should you be afraid of Zoran, yes or no? My side said no. The conservative side said yes. And the National Review writer who's on the panel, you know, she said it sort of midway through the debate. I just don't think this guy likes Western civilization. And that's where to me that's like that is blatantly Islamophobic because he's in the state assemblyman running for mayor of New York City. He's a very secular person. He really enjoys and is proud of where he lives. So to say you have disdain for Western civilization. Now they wouldn't say that. If I think I was running for mayor, even if I have the same views as Zoron, they wouldn't say, oh, Ross hates Western civilization. I do think because he is brown skinned he is Muslim. I do think that is a part of all this and I don't think it'll work. But it's a part of this.
B
Guys, I want to thank everyone who submitted questions. I'm sorry I couldn't get through all of them. I'm assuming that Ross is running out of time because we both have to get to the election night party. I will be reporting for the ap. Their live stream. Go to the Associated Press. You can watch it. You'll get all the optics from inside the Brooklyn. What is it again, it's the paramount Paramount. Yeah, the Paramount. The Brooklyn Paramount. And there'll be coverage of all the. Of all of the results at the ap. And of course, always follow Ross.
A
He.
B
He is so plugged in. Such a sharp reporter has been ahead of this story. And please follow him on Substack if you're watching that way. I don't know if you're on YouTube, but, you know, this is how you.
A
Can support including your channel. But no, I. I don't have a YouTube channel.
B
Okay, well, if you're watching this on Subtech, subscribe to the substack. We appreciate your help keeping us independent journalists reporting freely. So, yeah, thanks so much, guys.
A
Thank you for having me.
B
Okay, bye.
Guest: Ross Barkan (NY Mag)
Date: November 4, 2025
Location: On the ground at Zohran Mamdani headquarters, NYC
In this special Election Day episode, journalist Tara Palmeri is joined by NY Mag’s Ross Barkan to break down the stakes, dynamics, and possible outcomes of the hotly contested New York City mayoral race between Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa. The conversation delves into why this election marks a potential political realignment both locally and nationally, what Mamdani’s near-certain win signifies for the Democratic Party, the implications for progressives and moderates, and what challenges lie ahead for New York City’s likely new mayor.
[00:18–04:49]
“I think Silver made a good point today that the enthusiasm is so much with the Mamdani side… There’s a huge enthusiasm gap here.” — Ross Barkan [03:25]
[05:03–10:23]
“There’s a reason the base of the Democratic Party right now dislikes its leaders... I don’t recall a Senate minority leader and a House minority leader being so disliked within the Democratic Party.” — Ross Barkan [07:45]
[10:23–12:10]
“His messaging is just so similar to Trump's messaging. He rode in on the same wave of affordability.” — Tara Palmeri [10:23]
[12:10–16:24]
[16:24–21:18]
[21:20–27:47]
“Cuomo ran what I found to be the very worst front running campaign I’ve ever witnessed… total entitlement, no retail campaigning…” — Ross Barkan [26:01]
[30:58–39:19]
“If the city can’t run five grocery stores, then we should pack it up as a city, honestly.” — Ross Barkan [35:47]
[39:19–44:31]
“The police can basically veto your mayorship.” — Tara Palmeri [39:41]
[44:31–51:22]
“If you talk to voters under 40, they are deeply hostile to Israel and much more supportive of Palestinian rights.” — Ross Barkan [46:45]
[51:22–54:53]
“There has been a real… Islamophobic current running through this mayoral race in these final weeks.” — Ross Barkan [52:10]
On the Democratic Establishment:
“There’s a reason the base of the Democratic Party right now dislikes its leaders... Pelosi was always well liked. Harry Reid was well liked… If somehow [voters] could choose their leaders, which they can’t, I think Jeffries and Schumer would be thrown out.” — Ross Barkan [07:45]
On Realignment:
“If he wins and wins by a lot, it is a realignment election. It is a new era. It’s a new era in New York City politics, certainly.” — Ross Barkan [08:33]
On Populist Messaging:
“His messaging is just so similar to Trump’s messaging. He rode in on the same wave of affordability.” — Tara Palmeri [10:23]
On Cuomo:
“Cuomo ran what I found to be the very worst front running campaign I’ve ever witnessed… total entitlement, no retail campaigning… He never really answered why he wanted to be mayor.” — Ross Barkan [26:01]
On Islamophobic Ads:
“There’s been a real… Islamophobic current running through this mayoral race in these final weeks.” — Ross Barkan [52:10]
On Israel/Palestine Divide:
“If you talk to voters under 40, they are deeply hostile to Israel and much more supportive of Palestinian rights… I think for the pro-Israel Democrats, they have to worry a lot because I think they’ve lost people under 40 and I don’t think they’re getting them back.” — Ross Barkan [46:45, 51:02]
Tara and Ross conclude that, win or lose, Mamdani’s campaign has already forced the Democratic Party—at both state and national levels—to grapple with the growing clout and demands of its progressive, often younger base. The nature of his victory will determine how deeply this disruption is felt, and which elements of his far-reaching agenda, from free buses to pro-Palestine foreign policy stances, might find a place in mainstream political discourse going forward.