Alex Eisenstadt (2:22)

Been that long.

Tara Palmeri (2:23)

So it's their white whale, but it's, but they may actually touch it and grab it and get it.

Alex Eisenstadt (2:31)

Right.

Tara Palmeri (2:32)

Because the Republicans are so dysfunctional right now. And I hate to say it, but it's because of Trump. I mean he doesn't, he did not want to endorse in the Senate primary. He has been pushed by his own team. His former campaign manager, Chris La Civita, his pollster, Tony Fabrizio. These are the people that have been with him to endorse their candidate, John Cornyn, the incumbent senator. And he won't do it. And he kept saying, I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll endorse Cornyn because he was in the runoff with Paxton, who's more MAGA than Cornyn, but deeply flawed. Deeply flawed. I mean, this is a man whose wife is suing him on biblical grounds. He. He's being was investigated for fraud, impeached. He's. He's a troubled candidate. I was told this morning it would probably cost more than $200 million after the primary to get to help him win the general election against James Talarico, who is the Democratic nominee. So, yeah, this is. They're. They're kind of. And there was a deadline last night at 5pm for Paxton to drop out of the race to clear the way for Cornyn, but he refused to. So, I mean, Alex, what's. What's the latest? What are you hearing on your end? Why didn't Trump just do it? Why didn't he endorse Cornyn before the deadline?

Alex Eisenstadt (3:55)

Back for a second. And they look at this situation. It's fascinating because Trump is getting pulled in two different directions, right? He's got party leadership, including John Thune, and as you mentioned, some people who are really, really important pieces of Trump's inner circle who are working for John Cornyn, who are trying to get Trump to endorse Cornyn. And they're saying two things. They're saying that one, Ken Paxton would be a disaster as a nominee who would cost the party, you're right, Hundreds of millions of dollars, and by the way, in doing so, leave Republicans with less money to spend elsewhere. Right? Like Republicans have other races they have to worry about in November. And so what they're saying is that Paxton would cost the party dearly. But then you have Trump's base. MAGA influencers over the last couple of weeks have gone on Twitter, on X, other social media platforms, and have been on an absolute blitz pressuring Trump not to endorse Cornyn. They see Cornyn as an establishment figure, someone who wasn't really supportive of Trump ever. And they say that Paxton has been a Trump loyalist through and through, and that it would be a real mistake for Trump to go the other way and to endorse Cornyn. And in fact, if you think about it, Trump is getting more pressure from his base, from people up and down the spectrum from Laura Loomer, across, just across the spectrum, he's been getting more pressure from mag influencers on the Texas Senate race than I think any other issue that has come before him in his second term, including, including the war in Iran. He is under that much pressure over this situation. So Trump, a couple weeks ago, after the primary, Trump looked like he was all set to endorse John Cornyn. He put out a true social saying that he was about to endorse in the race. Everyone thought it was gonna be John Cornyn. And then all of a sudden, silence. And there's been nothing from him. He's given interviews on this topic to some outlets in the last couple of weeks. He's basically said that he hasn't made a decision yet. He's waiting to see if Cornyn and Senate leadership can pass the SAVE Act. But you're right, there was a deadline for Paxton to drop out last night or for Canada to drop out last night at 5 o'. Clock. TRUMP deadline came and went. Trump didn't endorse. And so here we are ahead of a May runoff. Trump still hasn't weighed in on this race yet.

Tara Palmeri (6:29)

It's insane. But regardless, Paxton is going to be on the ballot in some way, which means that's going to hurt Cornyn at least in the runoff, which comes up soon. And you know, I heard from my sources that it's going to cost cornyn at least $60 million, and that includes the Senate leadership fund, the Republican Party to help him win this race. So 60 million to help Cornyn win, and then if Paxton wins, about 250 million to help him beat a Democrat. That is so much money.

Alex Eisenstadt (7:03)

Yes. And Senate Republicans are waste on Texas. Senate Republicans have already spent 70 million on Cornyn in the primary. So it's on top of that. And one of the things that I think your viewers should know and that some people are coming to grips with right now is that we've had conversations about how the Republican majority in the House is in jeopardy. Right. Like we've been talking about that for the last year and change. Right.

Tara Palmeri (7:31)

I think the Republican majority in the House is gone, frankly. Right. They're barely there. Now.

Alex Eisenstadt (7:36)

If you, if you look at historical, you know, predictions and what's happened in the past, it certainly would be very hard for Republican.

Tara Palmeri (7:45)

I, I, Alex, they are literally looking, checking the health of a man in Florida regularly to make sure he doesn't die. So they have a majority.

Alex Eisenstadt (7:55)

But what fewer people have talked about is how the Senate, all of A sudden has become really competitive. And I've talked to some Republican strategists who said that at the beginning of the cycle, Republicans were probably 90 to 95% certain to keep their majority and potentially expand it. And now Republicans are maybe bit better than a coin flip in terms of keeping the majority. And so what that means is, look, there's finite resources here, right. That means Republicans, the money that's going to Texas, they'd like to have go to other states, whether it's Michigan, whether it's Maine, whether it's any number of different states, Nebraska could be coming online. There are any number of states, including red states, where Republicans are at this point playing defense suddenly. And so when you're spending that money in Texas, that's money that you're not spending somewhere else.

Tara Palmeri (8:45)

It's crazy. It's insane. It's like 400, $500 million on Texas people. Texas. Right. And what do you, what do you think?

Alex Eisenstadt (8:57)

Well, to be, to be clear, I think if you look at the numbers here, Cornyn and Paxton would, would either of them, if they're the nominee, would be favorite to win this race over James Tallarico.

Tara Palmeri (9:08)

Right.

Alex Eisenstadt (9:09)

You pointed out correctly, I think that that Texas is, is the Democratic Party's white whale. We saw Beto o' Rourke made a run here. We've seen any number of Democrats try to make a play in Texas. It hasn't worked out. But what Democrats can do, what they can do is they can force Republicans put resources into this state. And so that's part of the game that Chuck Schumer's playing here. Right. Schumer is trying to put Republicans on defense in any number of states. Right. He got a recruit in. Alas, he's looking, he's gotten recruits in other states. And that's all aimed at forcing Republicans to spread the field. So they're playing defense in a lot of different areas.

Tara Palmeri (9:51)

Yeah. And they're wasting a lot of money. And you know, this is I. And Trump sucks up a lot of money from the party already. Right. And he's not really great at doling it out himself. I guess I'm just surprised by how he was not convinced to endorse Cornyn, that he listened to his base. I think he probably feels particularly sensitive because the war in Iran and because the blowback from MAGA over the war. And I think he thinks, I can't, I can't cross them twice.

Alex Eisenstadt (10:23)

It's a great point. Here's the other thing that's going to be interesting to look at is he has been cautious about endorsing in many Republican primaries that are competitive. And as we know, Trump is incredibly protective over his endorsement in primaries. It is something that he prides himself on, is his win loss record. And so if you look at it, every time Trump gets involved in a competitive primary, it's a risk for him. Right. He could lose. And so if he engages in this Texas race, if he endorses Cornyn Paxton wins, that's a black eye for Trump. And so Trump is already endorsed in some, some Republican primaries, and there's risk for him. Right. He's endorsed against Thomas Massie, for example, who's coming up in a May primary in Kentucky. That's a fascinating race and it's really important. Why? Because Thomas Massie, the Republican incumbent from Kentucky, has, has been a major thumb in Trump's eye ever for this entire term. He stood up against Trump on the Epstein files. He stood up against Trump on Iran. He stood up against Trump on the role of Israel and America's role abroad. Right. And so if Trump doesn't win this primary coming up in May against Thomas Massie, that's gonna be embarrassing for Trump. Right. Trump is also supporting primary challengers against Indiana state legislators who defied him on redistricting. Right. That's another race that Trump has thrown his weight in. And finally, he's also endorsed against Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, who of course supported Trump's impeachment after January 6th. And so these are all risks.

Tara Palmeri (12:01)

Right?

Alex Eisenstadt (12:01)

Trump is putting skin in the game here. And so when you think about it, every single primary, Republican primary that Trump endorses in, that's a gamble.

Tara Palmeri (12:10)

Totally. I mean, even in Georgia, in Marjorie Taylor Greene, which is like ruby red, he endorsed Clay. I'm blanking on his name already. What was it?

Alex Eisenstadt (12:21)

Clay Fuller.

Tara Palmeri (12:22)

Yeah, Clay Fuller. And while Clay was he. He's going into a runoff. Okay. But it didn't clear the field, President Trump's endorsement of Clay Fuller. He lost in that primary, in the jungle primary to a Democrat by, you know, three points, and now he's going off into a runoff with a Democrat ahead of him. It's not. It kind of just shows you that the magic touch from Trump is may not be as strong as it used to be.

Alex Eisenstadt (12:47)

That's what these primaries are going to test. Right? Can Bill Cassidy survive? Can Thomas Massie survive? Can these Indiana state legislators survive? Now, if you talk to Trump people, they're going to tell you what they will tell you with absolute confidence is that Thomas Massie is going down In May, they will tell you that without absolute confidence. And Trump has put a lot of skin in the game. Right. Last week, he went out to Kentucky and campaigned against Thomas Massie with a cameo appearance from Jake Paul. And so, look, you know, these primary races are going to tell us a lot about Trump's popularity in the party at a time when he's under pressure from some members of his party over Iran. These primaries, really interesting to watch.

Tara Palmeri (13:31)

I think you're 100% right. It is a bigger, a bigger story. And do you think these intraparty fights suggest that we're seeing the first ripples of a blue wave?

Alex Eisenstadt (13:45)

Hard to. Not necessarily. I do think they will say a lot about Trump standing in the party as he heads into the midterms. Right. We forget that Trump's basically a lame duck president. Right. He's going to final two years in office. And what these primaries will tell us is, is, does the primary. How do they feel about Trump's moves on Iran? How do they feel about Trump's moves on tariffs? We in the media and others are going to be looking really closely into these results and these outcomes.

Tara Palmeri (14:16)

Yeah, it's, it's very true. I was just, you know, I was in shock. I was like, he sat it out. I can't believe Trump, I mean, he told NBC just days earlier that he would endorse in the Texas primary. I have been seeing the, the Democrats, the Republicans have a lot to play with with James Talarico, though. James Talarico is a pastor, which makes most people think a Democratic pastor. He must be pretty conservative. Right. But he's really not. He's, he, his, his voting record, it was not as, as, as moderate as Beto o' Rourke's was. And I've been seeing a lot of clips on my feed, Calorico, talking about how he's a vegan and. Well, that doesn't bother me a bit in Texas. I, I'm sure that doesn't go over well. Or wearing a mask or talking about gender stuff like, do you think that Cornyn or Paxton have a real fight against Talarico?

Alex Eisenstadt (15:17)

Yeah, look, I think you look at the numbers here, you have to assume that whoever wins this Republican primary, regardless of whether Trump endorsed or not, is the favorite. And what Republicans have done in the last couple weeks since the primary, and they've been very effective with this, is to take out loads and loads and loads of oppo that Talarico did not have to face during the Democratic primary and that Talarico is going to have to face this now. And those could steadily. The question is, does that oppo steadily erode Talarico's popularity? And you're right, there was one clip that I was circulating the last couple days, I believe Talarico, one of his last campaigns, was saying that it was a meat free campaign.

Tara Palmeri (16:02)

Right. That's the one that caught my eye. And I was like, ooh, I don't think that's gonna go over well in Texas.

Alex Eisenstadt (16:07)

Yeah. So that's one example of something that Talarico said. And you could bet the Republicans are gonna put a lot of money on TV commercials highlighting that statement. One other note, though, about Trump, which is in his decision not to at least so far endorsed in this race, is he's been holding the endorsement over Cornyn and John Thune as a leverage point in the Save America Act. This push and pull, Trump felt clearly like if he just handed his endorsement away to Cornyn, he'd be losing a point of leverage. And one Republican operative who's been tracking this race pretty closely told me that, look, Trump is the ultimate leverage player. Right?

Tara Palmeri (16:51)

Right.

Alex Eisenstadt (16:52)

Love to have something to dangle over people. If it gives him power over them, if he gives him a pressure point over them, he'll always take it. Right. It is something we have seen Trump do time and time again. And so what this person told me is like, look, right? Like, why, if you're Trump, would you just fritter that endorsement away? It makes no sense if you're has highlighted the Save America act so many times. He's so fixated and so focused on the idea of election security issues that for him, keeping that endorsement and getting that through is more important to him than giving John Thune and John Cornyn some peace of mind.

Tara Palmeri (17:34)

He said at the, at the Congressional Republican retreat, I will not pass any legislation unless we pass the Save America Act. And these guys need the frontliners. Frontliners need something to show their constituents that they did in this pretty much do nothing Congress. And he was like, we don't pass the Save America Bill. I will not sign any other bills. And just for everyone who's maybe wondering what that is, it's a voter ID registration bill. Means you have to, you know, show voter ID to, to, to vote. I just want to put my latest piece up on the screen because why not play around with this new screen stuff that we have on Substack. It's called Trump Won't Pick a Side and Republicans are panicking. It's in the red letter. And I'm going to scroll down to what a senior administration official told me. This person told me last night before the 5pm deadline for Cornyn to drop out. The president has his own sense of timing on political matters as nothing to do with polling, and he certainly thinks Cornyn can win. Now, I had that conversation with the senior administration official because I was told that Trump did not want to back a loser in this race and that he had seen polling that showed that Hornon was not a winner in, in the race against, against Paxton. Or at least they were struggling to find the polling that would show it because it was just too soon from the race. I mean, they, he literally came up like, I think it's like one point within one point of Paxton. That's, that's not very decisive. And also, you know, Paxton basically dared Trump on the Save America issue. Showed him like, do you care about this? What do you make of that comment from that senior administration official that Trump believes that Cornyn's a winner and it has nothing to do with the fact that he hasn't seen polling that shows that Cornyn can win or, you know, that, like, ultimately he's going to back Cornyn?

Alex Eisenstadt (19:27)

Yeah. Look, I think even if Trump backs Cornyn, it's no sure thing for Trump. Right. The reality is, is that John Corning, he, he got less than 50% if you think about he got less than 50% in the primary. This is a guy who's been in office since he was first elected in 2002. His constituents know him well. And the fact that he can't break 50%, that's a sign of weakness, right? It's a sign of weakness. And so you, you alluded to some, some polling earlier about what would happen if, if Trump were to endorse, and it would provide a boost to Cornyn, but, but not necessarily a sure thing in terms of getting him over the finish line.

Tara Palmeri (20:12)

Yeah. So, and the Save America Act, I mean, that was a really smart move on Paxton's part to basically say he said, I'll drop out if Cornyn supports dropping the filibuster, getting rid of the filibuster, the Senate filibuster, to pass the Save America Act.

Alex Eisenstadt (20:31)

It was a really savvy move. And even people close to Cornyn acknowledge in the wake of that. And it's frozen the race. It's frozen the race. And so while Trump is on the sidelines, both Corn and Paxton are trying to figure out what are their spending plans here, how much are they going to spend, when is the advertising going to start because no one knows what Trump is going to do except for one person, that's Donald Trump.

Tara Palmeri (20:57)

Not even Susie Wiles.

Alex Eisenstadt (21:00)

Well, they're holding their cards close is what I would say.

Tara Palmeri (21:04)

What are you looking out for in the next weeks, months ahead? How much longer are we going to be at war with Iran? What are your sources telling you? How much impact do they think that's going to have on the midterms? And are they starting to get a little nervous about the base? I saw your piece about the, about the base getting, getting angry over this.

Alex Eisenstadt (21:23)

I think the sense from the folks I'm talking to is that when you look at the midterms, it's still the economy that's going to shape how people vote more than the question of our engagement overseas. Now, there is some caveats to that. Right, which is to what extent does our decision to engage, does Trump's decision to engage in Iran, does it affect something like gas prices, which will affect people's day to day lives, their ability to go on vacations this summer, et cetera? Right. That could make a difference in the midterms. To the extent that Iran impacts his relationship with his base, it seems like the base is still, Trump's MAGA base is still split on Iran. You have some people who are very critical of him in this regard. You have other people who are very supportive of him in this regard. The question there is, how long does this go on for? Are we talking about something that he wraps up in the next couple of weeks or is it something that's going to take months and it's whether this thing drags on. People want. Trump supporters want to give him the benefits of the doubt. They always do. But the question is, how much time does he have? That's always the question.

Tara Palmeri (22:38)

And the oil and the gas prices, obviously that's affordability. They're so closely linked. This war is closely linked to affordability.

Alex Eisenstadt (22:46)

Affordability, which is something that we haven't heard Trump talk about as, as much recently. And we, you know, everyone kind of expected that going into this election year his focus would be on economic issues and, and affordability. Foreign affairs has now taken that place.

Tara Palmeri (23:01)

It's because affordability is a democratic hoax, Alex. Don't you know that it's up there with the Epstein files. Oh, well, you know what? Always fun to catch up with you and we shall see what happens in Texas. I have a feeling it's just going to be a big money suck. You know, if I was a consultant in Texas, you know, they they pretend they're really pissed off about this, but you know, they're make, they're making so much money off this race.

Alex Eisenstadt (23:33)

It, it's, there's going to be a lot of money spent Texas likely more than any other race the cycle.

Tara Palmeri (23:41)

And I, I'm sure it's killing them that Jeff Rowe is, is working.

Alex Eisenstadt (23:45)

It'll be fun. One to watch.

Tara Palmeri (23:46)

Yeah. Ken Paxton, he's the, you know, uber consultant we've had on the show Trump

Alex Eisenstadt (23:53)

Rules does not like Jeff Row.

Tara Palmeri (23:55)

They hate Jeff Row because he worked with Desantis. Yeah. What was Desantis's never back down super pac. Yeah.

Alex Eisenstadt (24:02)

So it was never back down super Pack. Yeah.

Tara Palmeri (24:04)

That burnt through a lot of money too. Money just lit on fire in, in, in politics. Think of what we could do with the world's all the money that's wasted on politics in this country.

Alex Eisenstadt (24:14)

It's a big business. It's a big business. Right. A lot of money goes to collection.

Tara Palmeri (24:19)

So. Yeah. Alex, thank you so much for your time. I'm gonna let you go get back to reporting. Sorry for the, the, the.

Alex Eisenstadt (24:26)

No worries.

Tara Palmeri (24:27)

Tech talk soon. Bye guys. Thanks so much for joining the Tara Palmeri show in the red letter. Apologies that this was a two parter. The entire part of this show will go on the Tara Palmari show on YouTube, Spotify, it will go on Apple of course. But as always, if you could hit that subscribe button if you become a paid subscriber, you support my independent journalism, you allow me to keep calling my sources trying to get down to the truth the matter what's really going on in Washington. The power players. And thank you all for your support as always in my one year anniversary and you guys have been there with me this entire time. So I really appreciate it and I'm gonna get back to work and figuring out how to make this into one interview for you guys to watch. Thank you all again. Talk soon. Bye.

Alex Eisenstadt (25:24)

Foreign.

Commercial Narrator (25:29)

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