Inflation Report Drops: Why Everything Still Feels So Expensive w/ Robert Wolf

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: Inflation Report Drops: Why Everything Still Feels So Expensive

Guest: Robert Wolf (financier, former Obama administration adviser)
Date: April 10, 2026

---

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the latest dismal U.S. inflation report in the context of ongoing geopolitical turmoil, particularly the Iran war, and its impact on everyday Americans’ costs and political messaging. Tara Palmeri is joined by Robert Wolf, a veteran economic advisor, to dig into why prices remain high, how the war has triggered an “energy shock,” and the political consequences for the Trump administration. They break down economic terminology, challenge administration talking points, and provide personal anecdotes to ground the discussion in real-life experiences.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Inflation Numbers: What They Mean ([00:30]-[03:21])

• Robert Wolf outlines three worrying figures from recent economic reports:
  • Q4 GDP growth: Only 0.5%, down sharply from over 4% in the previous quarter ("that number sucks" – Wolf, [01:23]).
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): Up 0.4%—the metric the Fed uses most carefully.
  • CPI (Consumer Price Index): Year-over-year up 3.3%; up 0.9% in March alone.
• Wolf: "Three horrible numbers. No one can be happy with this...this didn't even include a lot of the impact of the Iran war." ([01:53])
• Points out concerns about stagflation becoming “more and more front and center as the war continues.”

---

2. What’s Driving the Pain? Food, Energy, and the Iran War ([03:42]-[06:45])

• Food prices are mixed, but energy prices (electricity, gas, oil) have risen across the board.
• Wolf: "This administration ran on...getting affordability down. That...has not happened." ([04:01])
• Cites the dual impact of last year’s tariffs and the new Iran war.
• Administration’s Response: Shares a White House statement touting stable or falling essentials (eggs, beef, drugs), blaming energy volatility on Operation Epic Fury (the Iran military operation).
• Tara: "Ultimately people don’t really care about statements...that the economy is doing well. It’s how people feel." ([05:20])

---

3. Economic Reality vs. Political Messaging ([05:48]-[07:58])

• Wolf: Cites the failure of political “gaslighting” on the economy, referencing both Bidenomics and current talking points—“Affordability is not a hoax. There’s a job session right now.” ([06:28])
• Tara gives a concrete example—gasoline prices up 21% since last September; the highest jump since 1967. ([07:27])
• Everyday impacts: Her father’s old car, unable to afford new, takes $70 for half a tank—“I don’t think you can step outside without spending $70.” ([08:37])

---

4. K-Shaped Recovery & Who Gets Hurt ([08:50]-[10:21])

• Wolf: The pain is felt most by the lower 90%; wealthy people barely notice energy price changes. “K-shaped economy...the have-nots aren’t doing better, it’s proliferating.” ([09:01])
• Suggests ending the Iran war could lower energy prices by 30%, but “it won’t impact us [the U.S.] that much…it certainly will impact pan-Europe and Asia.” ([10:07])
• Need for an exit strategy from the conflict to focus back on the economy.

---

5. Geopolitics: Iran War Fallout & Economic Consequences ([10:21]-[12:15])

• Tara: Goldman Sachs estimates Iran could generate $57 billion/year if it charges $1 per barrel for oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, outpacing UAE revenues ([10:21]).
• Wolf: Warns Iran could “lose militarily but gain incredibly economically.”
• Nuclear Concerns: Increased resources could fund an Iranian nuclear program, requiring the U.S. to team with adversaries to halt proliferation.

---

6. Stagflation: What Is It? How Likely? ([12:15]-[14:11])

• Wolf: Defines stagflation—high inflation and low/negative growth, last seen in the U.S. in late ‘70s/early ‘80s.
  • “We don’t really know in America what that’s going to mean for us…maybe I’ve gone from a 10% chance [of stagflation] to a 20% chance.” ([13:20])
• Rising fears with each new economic data release as effects of the war become embedded in core metrics.

---

7. Will the Economic Picture Worsen? The Fed and What’s Next ([14:11]-[15:50])

• All major economic indicators are backward-looking and will soon reflect more war impact.
• Wolf: "It's going to feel a little ugly, which is why the Fed's on a pause. And...that is not a good thing." ([14:53])
• High mortgage and credit card rates persist as long as the Fed stays on hold; believes the Fed would be lowering rates if not for geopolitical uncertainty.

---

8. Path to Recovery: If the War Ended ([15:50]-[16:28])

• Markets are signaling belief in a short conflict.
• Wolf estimates that with a real ceasefire, "within six weeks" we could see some normalcy, but he's skeptical an end is near.

---

9. Challenges of Diplomacy and Regional Power Plays ([16:28]-[21:11])

• Tara: U.S. has struggled to negotiate with Iran; Iranians set to benefit more under current conditions.
• Wolf: "We totally underestimated Iran...It’s nothing like Venezuela."
• Discusses complicating regional interests (Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia), all of whom may not want Iran emerging stronger.
• Tara: U.S. negotiators have made little progress; “this is all just a futile attempt and nothing is going to happen...nothing is going to change at all.” ([21:11])

---

10. Political Spin vs. Reality: Administration Surrogacy ([23:05]-[26:48])

• Clip from Kevin Hassett (White House economic spokes): Presents a scenario where defeating Iran would remove global risk and unleash prosperity—“If we can get to a point where they're a common, stable country, then of course the global economy...is going to be much, much stronger.” ([23:05])
• Wolf & Tara: Mock the reliance on endless "ifs."
  • Tara: “Every statement they say...then what?” ([25:00])
  • Wolf: “You still have to give the facts, and the facts don’t lie…these numbers are showing they’ve been wrong.” ([25:25])

---

11. Real People, Real Pain: How Are Americans Coping? ([26:55]-[29:26])

• Tara and her friends cut back on small luxuries—fewer dinners out, more subway rides, delayed new apartments.
• Wolf: Consumer spending propped up GDP, but only because Americans are “dipping into savings, selling pensions or 401ks, and racking up credit card and 'buy now pay later' debt.” ([28:30])
  • Warns of “bad habits that could come back and really, you know, hurt everyone.”

---

12. Intergenerational Impact & The Youth Labor Market ([29:26]-[32:23])

• If you’re invested in markets, you’re somewhat buffered, but most people feel real pain as daily costs seem up 20-30%.
• Tara’s Gen Z assistant and her friends (even from top schools) can’t find jobs. Unemployment among young people now at 10-12%. ([31:46])
• Tara: “That really sets you back...that’s why a lot of millennials are saddled with debt now.” ([32:02])

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Robert Wolf:
  • “Three horrible numbers. No one can be happy with this...” ([01:53])
  • “Affordability is not a hoax. There’s a job session right now.” ([06:28])
  • “We totally underestimated Iran... It’s nothing like Venezuela.” ([16:54])
  • “We live in an environment where the fact is fiction and the fiction is the fact.” ([26:48])
  • “People are dipping into savings, selling pensions... and using ‘buy now, pay later’ financing like an ATM.” ([28:30])
• Tara Palmeri:
  • “I don’t think you can step outside without spending $70. It’s just impossible.” ([08:37])
  • “Every statement they say... then what?” ([25:00])
  • “It’s sad... about 20 years later, these students... they’re going through the same thing.” ([31:46])

---

Important Timestamps

• [00:30] Episode begins with Tara introducing Robert Wolf and the inflation report
• [01:19] Wolf lists the grim economic numbers
• [03:31] Wolf explains PCE and its role
• [04:41] Tariffs and Iran war as economic bookends for the administration
• [05:48] Political spin vs. economic reality
• [07:27] Tara shares the gasoline price spike data
• [08:37] Tara’s anecdote about her father’s struggles with daily expenses
• [09:01] Wolf on the “K-shaped economy”
• [10:21] Goldman Sachs projection about Iran’s potential oil transit revenues
• [12:15] Stagflation defined and assessed
• [14:53] Wolf warns about the Fed’s “pause” and its consequence
• [15:56] If war ended, when would things normalize?
• [23:05] Kevin Hassett’s “if everything goes right” remarks
• [25:25] Wolf on the need for truthful economic communication
• [28:30] Americans turning to savings and debt to maintain spending
• [31:46] Young people face 10-12% unemployment; parallels to the Great Recession

---

Tone and Language

• Tone: Direct, probing, sometimes sardonic (“gaslighting,” “the facts don’t lie,” “then what?”).
• Language: Informal yet substantive, with economic terms broken down for lay listeners.
• Memorable dynamic: Tara grounds the policy debates in personal experience; Wolf provides the expert macro view with blunt assessments.

---

Conclusion

The episode paints a sobering picture of inflation’s stubborn grip, the complex global forces at work (especially the Iran conflict), and the inadequacy of political spin when faced with Americans’ daily reality. Wolf and Palmeri cut through administration narratives to lay out the stakes: unless the energy shock abates and real solutions are found, Americans—especially young people and the working class—will feel the squeeze for months to come.

---

Transcript

[Friend 1]

Look at him eating whatever he wants, never gaining a pound. Well, I'm stuck with the boring special and can't lose an ounce.

[Robert Wolf]

How's your lunch, man?

[Friend 1]

Amazing. Yours?

[Robert Wolf]

So good.

[Friend 1]

Oh, I'm so happy for you. Cool, buddy.

[Mochi Health Announcer]

Weight loss isn't fair, but Mochi Health is the affordable GLP1 source that can fix your frustration with food.

[Robert Wolf]

So same time next week?

[Friend 1]

No, Definitely.

[Mochi Health Announcer]

And your friends, learn [e-mail] Mochi members have access to licensed physicians and nutritionists. Results may vary.

[Tara Palmari]

Welcome to the Tara Palmari Show. In the red letter we've got Robert Wolf, our financier titan who has advised presidents advised is advising Mayor Zoran Mamdani. He advised President Obama during the financial crisis in 2008, 2009, 2010. So we've got, we're really lucky to have someone who's been in the room and knows what kind of panic an administration feels when they see the kind of numbers that they saw this morning in the consumer inflation report, the consumer price index. Excuse me. And I mean Robert, pretty bad today. What do you, what were you thinking when you saw these numbers this morning? That consumer prices rose 3.3% in March?

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah. So Tara, this was a week of numbers, numbers, numbers, numbers. And if, you know, if you're a hard working American, you didn't like what you saw. And the, the three key numbers this week was GDP came out fourth quarter 2025. And we all remember when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says we own the fourth quarter, that's our quarter. Well great, they own the fourth quarter. And it came in at a half of percent of growth, one half of a percentage. Just be blunt, that number sucks. Okay, that was north of 4% in the third quarter. So one, that's how it started. And then from there we had what's called the personal consumption expenditure, which is pce. That's what the Fed really looks at. And for your viewers, that's the number of what American really spends on goods and services, excluding food and energy. And that rose 4, 10 of a percent. And then we had today's number and the month came in for CPI. Consumer inflation report came in at nine tenths of a percent and 3.3% for the year. So again, three horrible numbers. No one can be happy with this because you know, and this didn't even include a lot of the impact of the Iran war. Today's CPI included just the March aspect, but PCE didn't and GDP didn't. So I think this is going to continue to get Worse. And, and you and I have been having these weekly fireside chats now for the last three weeks. And Tara, the truth is, you know this. The idea of stagflation is going to become more and more front and center if this war continues.

[Tara Palmari]

Just so you could explain it to everyone, for anyone who doesn't know what the word pce, it's the price price index,

[Robert Wolf]

personal consumption expenditures. So it's really what you and I pay for, for goods and services, but not food and energy, which is actually.

[Tara Palmari]

The administration in their rebuttal noted that the price of food has gone down slightly. What do you make of that?

[Robert Wolf]

Well, I think it depends what people buy. Right. I mean, you know, some, some areas of food have gone down, some areas of food have gone up. I mean, but the truth is what's front and center for us. Things like electricity prices, gas prices, energy prices, they've all rose. I mean, listen, this administration ran on really two things. Immigration and we're not going to talk about that today. And getting affordability down. That did not, has not happened because, you know, you and I have chatted about it. But if you could argue that the two bookends of this administration economically is the past year tariffs a year ago in the Iran war, six weeks ago when it started.

[Tara Palmari]

Right.

[Robert Wolf]

Those things have just moved everything up.

[Tara Palmari]

This has been a, an energy shock. Really what we're seeing from the war, you know, just to, for the sake of giving the administration their chance to explain he's. Kush Desai, who works for the president, put out a tweet saying President Trump has always been clear about short term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury. Disruptions that the administration has been diligently working to mitigate. Although gas and energy prices are seeing volatility, price of eggs, beef, prescription drugs, dairy and other household essentials are falling or remain stable thanks to President Trump's policies. As the administration ensures the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, the American economy remains on a solid trajectory. Trajectory, thanks the administration's repo robust supply side agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and energy abundance. I don't know how long those statements are really gonna last for. I think ultimately people don't really care about statements, as we know from good old Bidenomics, that, you know, being told that the economy is doing well.

[Robert Wolf]

I was on the other side of that. So I have to admit, you know, I think what we learned and you know, we've spoken about it, what we learned during the Biden admin is that it's how people feel. I can give you all the facts. I gave you facts today. Even if the facts were the other side, people don't feel good. And I would tell you that, whether it's that statement today or Kevin Hassett on TV yesterday, gaslighting the American people when they talked about GDP and he called it just a small dip, that number was horrible. A half a percent. It's not a small dip. It went from 4.4% to a half a percent. And so I, I think that it's time just to tell the facts. And this has been a incredible energy shock. Now with that being said, I'm not here to, you know, I, I, I want the economy to do great. I, I want incredible growth. So I just want to be clear. Everything we do, we want wages go up, we want inflation come down, we want the job market to do well, but we're not in that environment, you know, you know, you spoke, you know, about your parents the other night, and I, I think, you know, repeating some of the stuff you said, how they were, you know, they're real maga and they're kind of really disappointed. I mean, affordability is not a hoax. There's a job session right now and we can say that, yeah, there's a good chance that, that this energy crisis is transitory. And I hope it is, but there's a chance it's not.

[Tara Palmari]

Prices are sticky. Once they get set at a certain rate, it's really hard for them to come down. Right. And, you know, I don't know, I, when I hear these statements from the administration, I feel like they're being really condescending. Here's a fact. The price of Gasoline has spiked 21.2% since last September from March to February. That is the largest monthly increase on record since 1967. Okay, like, that's a fact.

[Robert Wolf]

And people and Tara, I was born, I was five. You weren't born, but I was five years old at that time, so I don't remember.

[Tara Palmari]

I didn't live for it, to be honest, because it sounds horrible. And, you know, I'm with my dad this weekend and we're in a, we're in his car. We're in a car that's probably like, I don't know, 20 something years old. It's, he's had this car forever and he's, you know, he hasn't bought a new one. He doesn't really have the extra, you know, income to be able to buy another car. And it's chugging along and half a tank was $70. You know, it doesn't have the fuel offenses, it doesn't have the fuel efficiencies of new cars and people can't afford new cars anymore. Cars are really expensive, everything is really expensive right now without spending like $70. I mean, even he said that to me, he's like, I don't think you can step outside without spending $70. It's just impossible.

[Robert Wolf]

And Tara, listen, it doesn't impact me, you know, this K shape economy doesn't impact the upper 10%. Right. When taxes, when, when, when gas prices go up, okay? Wealthy people, you know, this is a regressive tax. Wealthy people don't think twice. You know, if beef prices go up, they're still going out to eat. So, so with this K shape economy that we've talked about since COVID where, you know, the haves and have nots and the have keep doing better and the have nots art, it's proliferating, you know, and, and I, I think, listen, President Trump ran on a real populist agenda, right? And I think he has to get back on that. And, and, and if, if I was advising him, and I'm not, I would probably say that, you know, if this, if Iranians decided that this war ends and then there's some toll, but that ends the war, that may be the best outcome. Okay. And yeah, it may be an extra buck, again a barrel for energy, but energy prices will come down, you know, probably by 30% at the end of the war. So, you know, and by the way, I hate to be an ugly American, it won't impact us that much.

[Tara Palmari]

Okay.

[Robert Wolf]

It certainly will impact pan Europe and it will impact, you know, the Asia where, you know, most of the oil comes through the straight arm moves. But we need to figure out what this exit is so we can get back to focusing on the economy.

[Tara Palmari]

Well, here's the deal. I mean, I just heard yesterday that Goldman Sachs predicted that if Iran can charge a dollar per barrel, just a dollar to get, you know, to get this oil through the straight toll, through this Strait of Hormuz, they'll make, they said, at least $57 billion a year, making it one of the richest, like powers, one of the richest countries really in the Middle East.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, there's no question richer than like

[Tara Palmari]

the uae, which is insane.

[Robert Wolf]

There's no question. Tara, I think you're spot on in this war. You could end up where Iran has lost dramatically militarily but has gained incredibly economically. So that could be the outcome.

[Tara Palmari]

Buy you can buy a nuclear program when you're rich, right? You don't need to get your own uranium. You can just buy it from Russia or China or, or north wherever. I mean, you could just buy the program.

[Robert Wolf]

Well, this is where I agree with the President. We have to make sure there is no nuclear proliferation in Iran. And I think we're going to have to work with our allies on that. And our frenemies. Right. We're going to, you know, we're not going to debate today the Iran nuclear deal under Obama. But the, one of the reasons I was a more of a proponent of that than others was because China and Russia were at the table. And anytime you can get China and Russia at the table agreeing with you in some ways when it comes to the evil access with Iran and North Korea, we may be better off. Now how much we can trust, right? It's trust and verify. You never know. And I know that you and I are going to be talking a lot about this over the year, but I think today what's front and center is this war is only causing prices to go up and it's causing literally companies to freeze what their growth strategy is for hiring. And that is a horrible sign.

[Tara Palmari]

And that goes to stagflation, which is something that you've been really warning about for a while. Can you just explain it for our listeners? What?

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, so, yeah, although I'm now 64, I never really lived through stagflation. The last time we had stagflation I was 16 years old and I don't even think I knew what it was, but it was in the late 70s, early 80s and I know a lot about it, mainly because I was really close with Paul Volcker and Paul Volcker was the Fed chair. He just tweeted out a great picture of me and the, the big fellow. Let him rest in peace. But yes, thank you. I was younger then and Paul was alive. Paul was really the Superman, as I called him, during kind of the worst times of our economic cycle. And stagflation is when inflation goes up and this was caused by energy shocks and at the same time growth goes down. So you're in a recessionary environment, so you have slow growth and high inflation and, and like I said, I have not lived that really in my lifetime since I've been, you know, buying my own way and neither has anyone else I've really been around. And so I, I think that we don't really know in America what that's going to mean for us, which is why Maybe I've gone from a 10 chance to a 20% chance. I don't want to be, you know, the, the, the predictor of horrible news but I know there are other economists who are at 50% possibility, possibility but this would be the awful scenario for, for our country in the nate and, and the globe.

[Tara Palmari]

So M. Perlo is saying if there's no equitable agreement in two weeks, will we see a new round of bad economic news? I think so. I mean the longer the war lasts, doesn't that have a impact on our, I mean it's, there's barely a ceasefire going on right now, if you can even call it that. Right.

[Robert Wolf]

I mean we're going to see bad economic news because you know, like GDP that was just horrible for the fourth quarter. Next time it comes out it's going to include March which is part of the Iran war. The, the next, you know, CPI number is going to include another lift on gas prices. And the next PCE number, which was the last one was February, will be March, which will include the Iran war. So the answer is yes. All of these numbers are somewhat backwards looking is what I would tell you guessed. So yeah, it's going to feel a little ugly which is why the Fed's on a pause. And for everyone, you know, the Fed being on a pause is not a good thing because I think the Fed should be lowering rates. So as long as they're on a pause, mortgage rates are going to stay high, credit card rates are going to stay high and that's caused they're on a pause because of the war. Otherwise I think they would be lowering rates.

[Progressive Insurance Announcer]

You're listening to this podcast, so I know you've got a curious mind. Here's a helpful fact you may not know yet. Drivers who switch and save with Progressive save over $900 on average. Pop over to progressive.com, answer some questions and you'll get a quick quote with discounts that are easy to come by. In fact, 99% of their auto customers earn at least one discount. Visit progressive.com and see if you can enjoy a little cash back. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. National average 12 month savings of $946 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2024 and May 2025. Potential savings will vary.

[Tara Palmari]

On the flip side, let's say the war ended today. How long would it take for things to go back to normal?

[Robert Wolf]

Like I think the market is telling you, they think it's going to end shortly because you know the market's been strong. They have not traded hand in hand with the energy markets. So they're making a prediction that it is transitory. I mean, listen, it's hard to predict, but I think you could see some sort of normalcy within, you know, six weeks if we had a real ceasefire and some real agreements. But doesn't feel like, to me, that's around the corner.

[Tara Palmari]

Yeah, it's crazy. I just, it just doesn't feel like there's an end in sight because, like, how do you negotiate with Iran? We've never been able to really negotiate with Iran. Right. And Trump was long complaining that money was frozen under Obama and with the, with the jcpoa, and now it looks like the Iranians are going to make even more money.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah. So, I mean, Tara, you know, it's interesting that for a president that said, you know, no more wars, you know, it feels to me that's all we've been in for the last year, whether it's the tariff war or, you know, this war, you know, I mean, fortunately, Venezuela seems like the way he's handled it, you have to give him credit, but this, But I do think the biggest mishap is, you know, I think we totally underestimated Iran. It's nothing like Venezuela. You know, Iran is, this is three times the size of Texas. It has 90 million people. So when he makes a comment we're going to end civilization in Iran, it's, it's, you know, to say it's a stupid, horrible comments, an understatement, but I think we underestimated, okay, their capability.

[Tara Palmari]

Do you think the markets really thought he was going to end civilization? Like, did what, what were you looking at that day? I mean, I think Americans kind of didn't really believe him. He's a bit of a boy, cried wolf. But there was a little bit of panic that everyone felt. Right. I mean, what were you thinking on that day?

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, I, I did not have panic. I thought it was a horrible gesture. I was on TV that day and as you know, I advise the Pentagon for two years. I don't advise anymore. But, you know, my guess is the President Trump and the, and the Department of War, they were working with their JAG officers, their judge, their judge General. So they're their legal group of understanding what infrastructure they could and couldn't hit under the Geneva Convention. So my view was, you know, that, that, that's, you know, how President Trump is. He, he owns airwaves with this type of, of rhetoric. But I, I certainly didn't like what I read, but I didn't think it was real. There was zero chance there was going to be a nuclear option and we're going to end civilization. At least that's my perspective.

[Tara Palmari]

Yeah. And then you read in New York Times that President Trump was told by Netanyahu that this was the time to strike Iran. They've never been weaker. It'll be easy. It'll be just like Venezuela. Just go in there and, and, you know, I don't know. With the ceasefire ending, you can't help but think that it's like it's not just Israel that doesn't want this war to end. It's uae, you know, it's, it's Saudi Arabia. None of these other countries want this war to end with Iran coming out more powerful than ever before. And I think that's why you're just going to see a lot of instability.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, I think you're spot on terror. I think what is an exit that our allies are comfortable with is a real unknown because one, energy prices up will hit, you know, uk, Germany and France and Japan and, and Korea that, you know, get oil from the Middle East a lot. Number two, the idea that Iran's going to have all this money, as you just mentioned earlier, and then they can replenish their, their missiles and their ballistics and God knows what else they may do, and they become maybe stronger over time. We can't allow that to happen. So, you know, there's no real exit strategy that's easy to, you know, say that would be good for, you know, our allies. Certainly, you know, if it ended tomorrow, you know, and we didn't have boots on the ground and we got rid of the ayatollah, I mean, and energy prices came, but. And we're not really paying the toll. You know, you could say the President, you know, succeeded where he wanted, but there'd be incredible challenges to that.

[Tara Palmari]

Yeah. I think about our lead negotiators too. Steve Witkoff borrowed a ton of money from Qatar to sell his hotel, the Park Hotel, for over in New York for over $100 million. They clearly have not been able to negotiate with Iran for, for months, as much as they've tried. I feel like this is all just like a feudal attempt and nothing is going to happen. Nothing is going to change at all.

[Robert Wolf]

But I hope you're wrong.

[Tara Palmari]

I hope I'm wrong, too.

[Robert Wolf]

But it's hard.

[Tara Palmari]

It's hard to think that anything will be different this time. But you know that thing where you

[DSW Announcer]

get an amazing pair of shoes at a really great price and want to tell everyone about it. Yeah, so do we here at Designer Shoe Warehouse. We'll give you something to brag about, like the latest styles from brands you love or the trends everyone's obsessing over or shoes that make you feel like, well, you. So go ahead, show off a little. Buying shoes that get you at prices that get your budget. Head to your DSW store or dsw.com today. DSW. Let us surprise you.

[Tara Palmari]

Hey guys, it's me again, raving about quints. I'm wearing another one of their silk long sleeve shirts. I seem to wear them on the show every day because they look so good and the quality is great and they're washable, which I love. But it's spring so it's time to reset my closet. Maybe get some short sleeves or sleeveless. And I'm sure you'll see more silk shirts on the show. But when I'm not on the show, I wear their organic cotton tees or I'm wearing their European linen shirts because they are really elevated. The fabric is amazing and the prices start at just $50. And you're probably wondering how they're able to do this in an ethical way. Well, it's because they cut out the middleman. So if you're like me and it's time to reset your wardrobe, go to quint.comtara for free shipping and 365 days of returns. Now available in Canada too. So go to q-u I n c e.com Tara for free shipping and 365 days of returns. Quince.com Tara we're going to throw to our the director of National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett because you know, we got to let the administration weigh in. So take a listen here.

[Kevin Hassett]

Well, I think that what we have is a terrorist regime that was threatening, you know, basically to create a nuclear bomb and then hold everybody in the world hostage with missiles that could already reach Europe. And if you remove that global threat, then the world has to be better off for the long run. It has to be that there are lower risk premium, there's more investment. Think about all the investment that doesn't happen in the Persian Gulf area because people are worried the Iranians might launch missiles at the things. If we can get to a point where they're a common stable country, then of course the global economy down the horizon is going to be much, much stronger. Well, I think that what we have is a terrorist regime that was threatening.

[Tara Palmari]

Okay, sorry about that. The door knocks. This is live TV and. Or live YouTube luckily, got that figured out. But, yeah, I don't know. I don't think, I don't feel reassured by that. Also the fact that Even Trump's own DNI Tulsi Gabbard said that they were 10 years away from having a nuclear missile and John Bolton said the same thing. But, yeah, this is, I mean, Tara,

[Robert Wolf]

what I heard in that, and I didn't see that hit, so I'm glad you played it. Just a lot of ifs. Yes, if that, if that. Yeah, if everything happened perfectly, we'd be better off if they had no missiles, no money, and they had a new regime and, you know, we could all sing Kumbaya, then. Yeah, we could hold hands and be great. That does not seem to be the outcome. I hope it is. But I think this goes to my point about, you know, this White House gaslighting, like, yeah, Kevin just said that's not happening. Yeah, okay. And so we should just say, I mean, the follow up should have been Stuart Varney saying, okay, and if that doesn't happen, then what?

[Tara Palmari]

Then what? We should have a show in, like every statement they say, and then go, then what? Yeah. Would you ever go out there if you were in that position? I mean, I know you have, you know, advised administrations. Would you ever go out there like that and just say and, and give a bunch of what if speculation on behalf of the administration? Like, doesn't that just ruin your credibility?

[Robert Wolf]

Here's what I would say. One of the reasons I stayed as an outside advisor to the president for eight years, economic adviser, and, and stayed as an informal adviser, you know, to Mandani, even though he and I disagree a lot of his views on the economy. When you work for the president and you're a surrogate for the president, you really have to stay on point and be in that sandbox. It's an incredibly difficult position. But what I would say is you still have to give the facts, and the facts don't lie. So you can say, hey, listen, this was a horrible GDP number, but let me tell you, because of the big beautiful bill or what we're doing, we think this. If we're right, great. If we're wrong, then we have to do this. What I think is they don't, they don't take the next step in saying if they're wrong. And, and the truth is these numbers are showing they've been wrong. And so I. Listen, I, I'm not in a situation where I, I work for the president. And so it's, it's it's not an easy position to be a surrogate, but I do think they should start talking about the facts.

[Tara Palmari]

Yeah, but that would require that coming from the top down. And once you start telling the truth, it can get really confusing for people who are not really interested in that.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, well, we definitely live in an interesting environment where the, the, where the fact is fiction and the fiction is the fact.

[Tara Palmari]

It's, it's like.

[Robert Wolf]

Let me ask you something now, you know, what are your friends thinking about in here when it comes to affordability? And you know, I think a lot of your friends live in the city, so they may not be driving cars and things like that, but where do they feel the most pain?

[Tara Palmari]

You know, it's hard to say because like we're not in like the upper middle, upper upper class or anything like that. So it's not like we don't feel it at all. You know, maybe you don't go out to dinner as much or maybe you don't get the more spacious apartment that costs a little bit more. Maybe you take the subway more. Like you kind of cut back in little ways. But it's not in a substantial way where, you know, you're deciding that your kids can't go to the school you want to send them to or you can't take a vacation at all. I think you can't afford to even go to the doctor. I mean, I don't, I think, you know, middle income people are a little, it depends. I mean, just posted rent, I think. Yeah. A lot of my friends are, are, you know, college educated and they can, they have some flexibility and they're in a good place in their careers. You know, once you're kind of in your late 30s, early 40s. But not everybody, and I think we all have that anxiety about what the future is going to bring. We're certainly not in retirement level or not there, so we're gonna have to work. So if we lose our jobs, I'll

[Robert Wolf]

tell you what the numbers are showing and that's why I asked. So the, the recent numbers have shown, you know, one of the reasons GDP wasn't negative was consumer spending was still big. But what it's showing is people are dipping into savings, right. They are selling their pensions and 401ks more than they have. They are dipping back into credit cards. And the buy now, pay later financing has just, you know, become a monster financing vehicle for younger people. They, they're using it like an atm, but they don't realize they're being, you know, charged, you know, double digit interest rates. So I would just say that what we are seeing is the way they, maybe it's either stay afloat is, you know, some of the, the bad habits that could come back and really, you know, hurt everyone.

[Tara Palmari]

It's like, it's kind of what we talked about before. If you're invested in the market, you're probably feeling all right. Right. It took some dips, but it kind of bounced back. And you're, you're probably feeling better if that's, if you're very invested in the markets. But if you're not, then you're not feeling great at all. And you're probably worried about your job and you realize that everything just costs about 20%. It feels like at least 20% more or 30% more. I mean, certainly it's interesting because my, my father said something to me. I mean, he's, he's always been really conservative and he said, well, why don't we just have a flat sales tax? And I was like, dad, don't you understand that that actually impacts lower and middle income people more than anyone, more than the wealthy? And he didn't really see that.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, no questions. Those type of taxes are aggressive. I mean, you have Democrats now touting, you know, to change the income tax threshold to 75, 000 and 90, 000. And we'll talk more about that over time. But you know, they still, there's still a lot of federal tax, everyone pays payroll tax, Social Security tax, Medicare tax, gas tax. The federal gas. Yeah, Local sales taxes. So, you know, we live in an environment where, you know, you may win on one side and lose on the other side.

[Tara Palmari]

Totally. Well, we are kind of having to wrap things up. Abby, who works for me and is a Gen Z or said Ubers are expensive. And I agree. And you know, she's about to graduate from college. She's going to work for me. But, you know, I don't know what her. Maybe Abby sent me a message. I mean, what are your friends, are they having a hard time finding jobs? What's the market like for, for young people right now, coming out of college? She said no one has jobs. Well, if you want to be an intern for me, we are hiring. So send, send your friends. He said, she said, all coming from top schools. No one has jobs. That is a really, really sad, scary place to be. I know what that's like. I graduated from college early because I graduated in 2008 and I wanted to. I got a job offer and I had enough Credits. And I was like, I'm getting out of school and I'm going to start working, because, yeah, it was a horrible, horrible time to graduate. And I think a lot of these, sadly, about 20 years later, these. These same people, these students are. They're going through the same thing. And it's sad.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah, the. The unemployment rate for the country is like 4.3%, but for younger people, it's somewhere between 10 and 12. So it. It's, you know, definitely at the highest end we've seen since COVID I know she said people.

[Tara Palmari]

This is crazy. Actually, people's parents are hiring job interview coaches, so. Yeah, I do remember, too, my friends that graduated on time, that did not graduate early. They had to wait years before they got their first jobs. And that really sets you back. And I think that's why a lot of millennials are saddled with debt now, a lot of it being student loans and stuff like that.

[Robert Wolf]

Yeah.

[Tara Palmari]

Alas, those. Those decisions people at the top make, they really trickle down and affect us, don't they? On that note, let's pray that this war ends and people can get back to their lives and not have to worry about bigger geopolitical issues and can just, you know, live in peace with their families. Thanks, Robert.

[Robert Wolf]

Thank you, Tara. We'll speak shortly, and I hope you have. I can't. I know. I actually. I'm gonna go hit some golf balls for the first time in six months, you know.

[Tara Palmari]

Okay, well, keep us posted on that one. Goes. All right, Cheers.

[Robert Wolf]

Speak soon. Thanks, everyone.

[Tara Palmari]

Bye.

[Monday.com Announcer]

This is a Monday.com ad. The same Monday.com helping people worldwide, getting work done faster and better. The same Monday.com designed for every team and every industry. The same Monday.com with built in. In AI scaling your work from day one. The same Monday. Com that your team will actually love, using the samemonday. Com with an easy and intuitive setup. Go to Monday.com and try it for free. Yes, the same Monday combination.