Podcast Summary: The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: Inflation Report Drops: Why Everything Still Feels So Expensive

Guest: Robert Wolf (financier, former Obama administration adviser)
Date: April 10, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the latest dismal U.S. inflation report in the context of ongoing geopolitical turmoil, particularly the Iran war, and its impact on everyday Americans’ costs and political messaging. Tara Palmeri is joined by Robert Wolf, a veteran economic advisor, to dig into why prices remain high, how the war has triggered an “energy shock,” and the political consequences for the Trump administration. They break down economic terminology, challenge administration talking points, and provide personal anecdotes to ground the discussion in real-life experiences.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Inflation Numbers: What They Mean ([00:30]-[03:21])

• Robert Wolf outlines three worrying figures from recent economic reports:
  • Q4 GDP growth: Only 0.5%, down sharply from over 4% in the previous quarter ("that number sucks" – Wolf, [01:23]).
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): Up 0.4%—the metric the Fed uses most carefully.
  • CPI (Consumer Price Index): Year-over-year up 3.3%; up 0.9% in March alone.
• Wolf: "Three horrible numbers. No one can be happy with this...this didn't even include a lot of the impact of the Iran war." ([01:53])
• Points out concerns about stagflation becoming “more and more front and center as the war continues.”

2. What’s Driving the Pain? Food, Energy, and the Iran War ([03:42]-[06:45])

• Food prices are mixed, but energy prices (electricity, gas, oil) have risen across the board.
• Wolf: "This administration ran on...getting affordability down. That...has not happened." ([04:01])
• Cites the dual impact of last year’s tariffs and the new Iran war.
• Administration’s Response: Shares a White House statement touting stable or falling essentials (eggs, beef, drugs), blaming energy volatility on Operation Epic Fury (the Iran military operation).
• Tara: "Ultimately people don’t really care about statements...that the economy is doing well. It’s how people feel." ([05:20])

3. Economic Reality vs. Political Messaging ([05:48]-[07:58])

• Wolf: Cites the failure of political “gaslighting” on the economy, referencing both Bidenomics and current talking points—“Affordability is not a hoax. There’s a job session right now.” ([06:28])
• Tara gives a concrete example—gasoline prices up 21% since last September; the highest jump since 1967. ([07:27])
• Everyday impacts: Her father’s old car, unable to afford new, takes $70 for half a tank—“I don’t think you can step outside without spending $70.” ([08:37])

4. K-Shaped Recovery & Who Gets Hurt ([08:50]-[10:21])

• Wolf: The pain is felt most by the lower 90%; wealthy people barely notice energy price changes. “K-shaped economy...the have-nots aren’t doing better, it’s proliferating.” ([09:01])
• Suggests ending the Iran war could lower energy prices by 30%, but “it won’t impact us [the U.S.] that much…it certainly will impact pan-Europe and Asia.” ([10:07])
• Need for an exit strategy from the conflict to focus back on the economy.

5. Geopolitics: Iran War Fallout & Economic Consequences ([10:21]-[12:15])

• Tara: Goldman Sachs estimates Iran could generate $57 billion/year if it charges $1 per barrel for oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, outpacing UAE revenues ([10:21]).
• Wolf: Warns Iran could “lose militarily but gain incredibly economically.”
• Nuclear Concerns: Increased resources could fund an Iranian nuclear program, requiring the U.S. to team with adversaries to halt proliferation.

6. Stagflation: What Is It? How Likely? ([12:15]-[14:11])

• Wolf: Defines stagflation—high inflation and low/negative growth, last seen in the U.S. in late ‘70s/early ‘80s.
  • “We don’t really know in America what that’s going to mean for us…maybe I’ve gone from a 10% chance [of stagflation] to a 20% chance.” ([13:20])
• Rising fears with each new economic data release as effects of the war become embedded in core metrics.

7. Will the Economic Picture Worsen? The Fed and What’s Next ([14:11]-[15:50])

• All major economic indicators are backward-looking and will soon reflect more war impact.
• Wolf: "It's going to feel a little ugly, which is why the Fed's on a pause. And...that is not a good thing." ([14:53])
• High mortgage and credit card rates persist as long as the Fed stays on hold; believes the Fed would be lowering rates if not for geopolitical uncertainty.

8. Path to Recovery: If the War Ended ([15:50]-[16:28])

• Markets are signaling belief in a short conflict.
• Wolf estimates that with a real ceasefire, "within six weeks" we could see some normalcy, but he's skeptical an end is near.

9. Challenges of Diplomacy and Regional Power Plays ([16:28]-[21:11])

• Tara: U.S. has struggled to negotiate with Iran; Iranians set to benefit more under current conditions.
• Wolf: "We totally underestimated Iran...It’s nothing like Venezuela."
• Discusses complicating regional interests (Israel, UAE, Saudi Arabia), all of whom may not want Iran emerging stronger.
• Tara: U.S. negotiators have made little progress; “this is all just a futile attempt and nothing is going to happen...nothing is going to change at all.” ([21:11])

10. Political Spin vs. Reality: Administration Surrogacy ([23:05]-[26:48])

• Clip from Kevin Hassett (White House economic spokes): Presents a scenario where defeating Iran would remove global risk and unleash prosperity—“If we can get to a point where they're a common, stable country, then of course the global economy...is going to be much, much stronger.” ([23:05])
• Wolf & Tara: Mock the reliance on endless "ifs."
  • Tara: “Every statement they say...then what?” ([25:00])
  • Wolf: “You still have to give the facts, and the facts don’t lie…these numbers are showing they’ve been wrong.” ([25:25])

11. Real People, Real Pain: How Are Americans Coping? ([26:55]-[29:26])

• Tara and her friends cut back on small luxuries—fewer dinners out, more subway rides, delayed new apartments.
• Wolf: Consumer spending propped up GDP, but only because Americans are “dipping into savings, selling pensions or 401ks, and racking up credit card and 'buy now pay later' debt.” ([28:30])
  • Warns of “bad habits that could come back and really, you know, hurt everyone.”

12. Intergenerational Impact & The Youth Labor Market ([29:26]-[32:23])

• If you’re invested in markets, you’re somewhat buffered, but most people feel real pain as daily costs seem up 20-30%.
• Tara’s Gen Z assistant and her friends (even from top schools) can’t find jobs. Unemployment among young people now at 10-12%. ([31:46])
• Tara: “That really sets you back...that’s why a lot of millennials are saddled with debt now.” ([32:02])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Robert Wolf:
  • “Three horrible numbers. No one can be happy with this...” ([01:53])
  • “Affordability is not a hoax. There’s a job session right now.” ([06:28])
  • “We totally underestimated Iran... It’s nothing like Venezuela.” ([16:54])
  • “We live in an environment where the fact is fiction and the fiction is the fact.” ([26:48])
  • “People are dipping into savings, selling pensions... and using ‘buy now, pay later’ financing like an ATM.” ([28:30])
• Tara Palmeri:
  • “I don’t think you can step outside without spending $70. It’s just impossible.” ([08:37])
  • “Every statement they say... then what?” ([25:00])
  • “It’s sad... about 20 years later, these students... they’re going through the same thing.” ([31:46])

Important Timestamps

• [00:30] Episode begins with Tara introducing Robert Wolf and the inflation report
• [01:19] Wolf lists the grim economic numbers
• [03:31] Wolf explains PCE and its role
• [04:41] Tariffs and Iran war as economic bookends for the administration
• [05:48] Political spin vs. economic reality
• [07:27] Tara shares the gasoline price spike data
• [08:37] Tara’s anecdote about her father’s struggles with daily expenses
• [09:01] Wolf on the “K-shaped economy”
• [10:21] Goldman Sachs projection about Iran’s potential oil transit revenues
• [12:15] Stagflation defined and assessed
• [14:53] Wolf warns about the Fed’s “pause” and its consequence
• [15:56] If war ended, when would things normalize?
• [23:05] Kevin Hassett’s “if everything goes right” remarks
• [25:25] Wolf on the need for truthful economic communication
• [28:30] Americans turning to savings and debt to maintain spending
• [31:46] Young people face 10-12% unemployment; parallels to the Great Recession

Tone and Language

• Tone: Direct, probing, sometimes sardonic (“gaslighting,” “the facts don’t lie,” “then what?”).
• Language: Informal yet substantive, with economic terms broken down for lay listeners.
• Memorable dynamic: Tara grounds the policy debates in personal experience; Wolf provides the expert macro view with blunt assessments.

Conclusion

The episode paints a sobering picture of inflation’s stubborn grip, the complex global forces at work (especially the Iran conflict), and the inadequacy of political spin when faced with Americans’ daily reality. Wolf and Palmeri cut through administration narratives to lay out the stakes: unless the energy shock abates and real solutions are found, Americans—especially young people and the working class—will feel the squeeze for months to come.