Transcript

Tara Palmeri (0:00)

This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. Welcome back to the Tara Palmeri Show. As many of you know, I've been a political reporter for my entire career, but I don't believe in carrying water for either side. It is day 28 of the government shutdown, and what we are seeing is dysfunction. Parties unified in dysfunction. Bipartisan dysfunction, I will say. Both sides are completely dug in. They are so afraid of showing cracks. And, I mean, when you ask either side, people at the highest level of power, what's going on, all they can talk about is who's winning. They show you polls about which side is winning the debate. And they have forgotten that there are real American people paying the price for this political brinkmanship, that some people are going to be hungry if President Trump does not allow emergency funds to be used to cover SNAP. SNAP program or food stamps. It's $188 a week for people. One in eight Americans, 42 million people rely on this social safety net to be able to eat. And as soon as Saturday, they may not have it. And this is because the Republicans want to make this as painful as possible for Democrats. Okay? And Democrats are thinking at the same time, well, how do we make this as painful as possible for Republicans? We keep the government shut down because we want these Obamacare subsidies to be renewed. And by Saturday as well, November 1st, people are going to go shopping for their health insurance on the Obamacare system like I will. And they will see their premiums go up as much as 900 per month, 30% per month. It is shocking. And they're hoping that will put political pressure on Republicans to come to the table about these Obamacare subsidies. I know from sources and I around Trump, and I'm sure that he will do this ultimately. He will renew the Obamacare subsidies because he knows it impacts his voters in red states. The question is, who waves the white flag first? Right? I mean, I just don't see President Trump doing it. He said, I will work on this health care issue, but we have to reopen the government. So in the meantime, the two parties are just trying to make it painful for each other and trying to say that they're winning and looking forward to the midterms in 2026. And I will say Trump's own pollster, Tony Fabrizio, put out a memo in July warning when they were negotiating the big beautiful bill that cut out the Obamacare subsidies being renewed, that they could lose by 10 to 15% percent if they don't fix this. So they know it's a problem and they have to deal with it. But in the meantime, House Speaker Mike Johnson, in a call with his members, said, we are going to turn the pain register up to level 10. The exact quote is, quote, the pain register is about to hit level 10. Okay, so there's almost an enjoyment in this. And to make sure that there is no negotiating, as you would hope would happen in Congress, to make sure that people on both sides of the aisle can't talk and figure out how to make this work, Mike Johnson has closed the House. He has literally kept the House out of session for a month so that they can't even speak to each other so that they're scattered around the country. He's ceding his own power to Trump. And not that they would likely feel comfortable making deals without Trump support because they're terrified of him, but still. So when I talk to Republicans, they say, oh, yeah, this shutdown could go as long as December, maybe more. Democrats are more optimistic. November, but they don't see an off ramp in sight. I mean, flights are delayed. Thousands of flights are being delayed already. Imagine the holidays. People could be hungry in a few days. Somehow they were able to pay the troops. But what's next? It's, it's just, it's out of control. So I was on a panel with Abby on Abby Phillips show on CNN last night. And I tried to point this out. I was surrounded by partisans on the left and on the right. And I was like, guys, this is all about political brinkmanship. And we need to remember that at the end of the day, this will all end with a government reopened, Obamacare subsidies likely renewed. And in the meantime, are we really going to make people suffer? Seriously. And I also mentioned, hey, let's not forget that during the 2018 shutdown, the only one beating the this one with 32 days, Trump's first shutdown, she didn't really seem to care about much. Like this one. He's in Asia after all. Right. That he used emergency funds to pay for food stamps. So he could do that right now, but he's choosing not to because this is all about political games. People are political pawns in all of this. Now there is a federal workers union that's going to put pressure on Democrats to come to the table. That's a big deal. We'll see if that causes any movement. You know, I get the sense that they're, that they are very dug in, that they don't see an off ramp. I've never seen anything quite like it, but who knows? I mean, things can happen. But if they remain as dug in as they have been, which has been very remarkable, I don't see an off ramp anytime soon. Now, I talked to a Republican Senate source, and I want to read to you what this person said to me. Okay. Republicans are pretty content to let this thing ride out and make the Democrats eventually cave. This person said the calculus has been harder for Democrats to stay together after the Obamacare subsidies go up. And good luck getting Republicans to agree on a health care bill. So that's the calculus for Republicans. They think it will be harder for Democrats to stay together after the Obamacare subsidies go up. Yeah, they're all just applying pressure until the other one caves. It's scary, right? Yeah. So I, I don't, I don't know when this will end. Although I do think that Democrats are losing leverage every day, mostly because Republicans don't seem to care. Trump's checked out. He doesn't even really know the details of the bill, according to Democrat Democratic leader Chuck Schumer. And that's what he said in a readout of his meeting with President Trump. They didn't know the details, and what they really fear is that he's just bored by it and checked out and. And the rest of the Republican members are in a stalemate around Trump and what he wants to do. So I guess it's. We're all just on autopilot. This is a very weird thing to see Republicans calling for the government to be reopened. So they're not even. They don't even really care. They don't even feel like the government is being held hostage by Democrats who are doing something that they don't normally do, which is using a shutdown for leverage. It's a very odd posture for both of them because, you know, Republicans just don't really care about whether the government is funded. We're in very weird times. I tried to be the sane one at the table. We also talked about Zoram Mamdani, and, you know, Republican leaders seem to be giddy that they're going to have a foil a socialist fo oil in New York. But I think they've missed the point that Zoran Mamdani is bringing out tons of people, masses of people voting early. There at stadiums watching him. He's a rock star next to AOC and Bernie Sanders. And I don't think it's because he has the word socialist in front of his name. I think it's because it's the populist message, a similar populist message that President Trump wrote in on that the elites are not looking out for you. And he came in on affordability. And that's another issue that Republicans have. They ran on affordability and guess what? Life is not any more affordable. You know, inflation is still high, the cost of living. If he can run on affordability and drive voters out like this, then Republicans have a problem. So they shouldn't be giddy. They should say instead of socialist Zoran Mamdani, they should see the word populist in front of it, just like their leader. President Trump wrote in on a populist message and that means that there are problems for both parties. Well, I just hope you enjoy the show. It can get rowdy again. I tried to be the sane one coming armed with facts and insider reporting, which you can find at the red letter. By the way, if you go to tarapaul mary.com that's T A R A P A L M E-R-I.com you will get all my insider reporting exclusive straight to your inbox before anybody else. It's also a way to support independent journalism. You know, I don't have any corporate boards or shareholders or anyone over me telling me what to write or what to do. I am getting the facts first without fear or favor and presenting them to you and letting you decide. I've been in this game for a long time. I'm pretty jaded by a lot of it. But I do feel like the only power we have in this situation is information. So I will give you exactly what I know without bias. And I hope you will continue to support this channel. Please leave comments, please, about what you think I got right or got wrong. This is an open conversation. And take and take a watch of my appearance on cnn.

Podcast Summary: The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: Inside Washington’s Shutdown Games

Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Tara Palmeri

Overview

In this episode, Tara Palmeri dissects the ongoing government shutdown—now at nearly four weeks—exploring the entrenched dysfunction in Washington and the political gamesmanship between Republicans and Democrats. The episode goes beyond headlines, exposing how real Americans are suffering as both parties treat the shutdown as leverage over issues like SNAP benefits and Obamacare subsidies. The podcast features Palmeri’s solo analysis, her reporting from inside Capitol Hill, and extended highlights from her panel appearance on CNN’s “Abby Phillip Tonight," joined by political commentators Anna Kasparian, Harrison Fields, Neera Tanden, and Joe Borelli.

Key Discussion Points

1. Government Shutdown: Political Games at the Expense of Americans

Entrenched Dysfunction: Both parties are fully “dug in,” more concerned with who is “winning” and poll numbers than with the everyday people affected by the shutdown.
Impact on SNAP Benefits: 42 million Americans (1 in 8) depend on the SNAP (food stamps) program, receiving $188 a month. As the shutdown nears a month, these benefits are endangered.
- “As soon as Saturday, they may not have it. And this is because the Republicans want to make this as painful as possible for Democrats.” (Tara Palmeri, 02:05)
Obamacare Subsidies Leverage: Democrats are holding out for a renewal of Obamacare (ACA) subsidies. Without resolution, people may see up to a 30% jump—$900/month—in health insurance premiums starting Nov 1.
- “They’re hoping that will put political pressure on Republicans to come to the table…” (Tara Palmeri, 04:10)
Political Calculus: Both sides are using vulnerable Americans as pawns—Republicans want to force Democrats to cave by making hardship visible; Democrats hope public pain from lost subsidies will force the GOP’s hand.
Shutdown Tactics: House Speaker Mike Johnson has closed the House, keeping members away from Washington to prevent any cross-party negotiations—notably yielding power to Trump’s demands.
- “The pain register is about to hit level 10.” (Mike Johnson via Palmeri, 06:00)

2. Inside the Numbers: Pressure and Polls

Palmeri cites a July memo from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, warning Republicans could lose 10-15% in races if Obamacare subsidies aren’t renewed.
GOP sources indicate willingness to let the shutdown drag on, predicting internal Democratic pressure will mount once ACA subsidies expire.
- “Republicans are pretty content to let this thing ride out and make the Democrats eventually cave.” (Palmeri quoting GOP Senate source, 09:35)

3. Real-Life Harm and the Lack of an “Off Ramp”

Palmeri warns of real consequences: delayed flights, unpaid federal workers, looming hunger, and widespread uncertainty.
Federal workers’ unions may soon pressure Democrats to strike a deal.
“They don’t see an off ramp in sight. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.” (Palmeri, 08:45)

4. On Political Panel: The Shutdown on CNN (12:05–25:41)

Partisan Blame Game: The panel mirrors the gridlock in D.C.—each side blames the other for the shutdown; both refuse to move without concessions on core demands (ACA subsidies or government funding).
- “All Republicans want is for Democrats to do what Democrats have demanded others do... vote for clean CRs.” (Anna Kasparian, 14:41)
- “Both sides are playing politics. Very clear.” (Joe Borelli, 20:09)
SNAP Funding Options: Both the Trump administration and Democrats have previously used or could use emergency funds to cover benefits, but are presently refusing for tactical reasons.
- “In 2018, during Trump’s shutdown, he used emergency funds to pay for food stamps. He could do that right now, but he’s choosing not to because this is all about political games.” (Tara Palmeri, 17:54)
- “The administration can look at many ways to solve this problem... But the one thing...” (Harrison Fields, 19:46)
Will It End—and How? Consensus emerges that Trump will eventually concede on ACA subsidies because it affects voters in red states, but not before both parties inflict maximum pain.
- “He will end up giving the concession of the subsidies. He’s already said it. He knows he said it.” (Tara Palmeri, 21:34)

5. Gavin Newsom’s Podcast Appearance & Democratic Vulnerabilities (26:14–37:15)

Newsom is criticized for attempting to present a “cool” persona on a popular podcast; discussion follows about authenticity, Democratic “pandering,” and policies failing to address affordability and quality of life.
- “He spends too much time trying to be cool and look cool. Remember during COVID, he still had to look cool at French Laundry, having his dinner with his friends.” (Anna Kasparian, 34:38)
Debates on whether Newsom’s reputation can translate nationally and his challenges in winning over less coastal, more moderate Democrats.

6. Populism, AOC, Bernie Sanders, and New York’s Socialist Momentum (38:09–44:18)

The rise of “populist socialist” candidates like Zoran Mamdani in New York City draws massive crowds and early voter turnout, signaling an energized base.
- “He is a rock star next to AOC and Bernie Sanders. And I don’t think it’s because he has the word socialist in front of his name. I think it’s because it’s the populist message... Republics have a problem.” (Palmeri, 08:00 and reiterated, 42:20)
The establishment’s embrace of leftist candidates worries some panelists who fear it may cost Democrats in broader national races.

7. Presidential Health and Transparency (46:16–51:14)

President Trump’s recent MRI and health concerns stir debate about transparency from the White House; parallels drawn to previous administrations’ lack of candor.
- “He has a doctor that’s always happy to say that his health is amazing. And we know that there’s no transparency... Presidents feel like their health is connected to their power.” (Palmeri, 47:03)
- “The idea that an MRI is part of a standard physical is not true. It’s a test that is done when they are checking for something.” (Abby Phillip, 51:14)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Dysfunction:
“Both sides are completely dug in. They have forgotten that there are real American people paying the price for this political brinkmanship.”
— Tara Palmeri, 00:48
On Political Gamesmanship:
“We are going to turn the pain register up to level 10.”
— Speaker Mike Johnson (via Tara Palmeri), 06:00
On SNAP and ACA Leverage:
“Who closed the government? The Democrats. Who closed it?”
— Harrison Fields, 17:41
“In 2018... Trump used emergency funds to pay for food stamps. He could do that right now, but he’s choosing not to because this is all about political games.”
— Tara Palmeri, 17:54
On Panel Frustration:
“If you’re going to do it anyway, why not just do it?”
— Abby Phillip, 23:22
“Republicans just don’t really care about whether the government is funded. We’re in very weird times.”
— Tara Palmeri, 09:00
On Populism:
“There was always a crossover between the Bernie voters and the Trump voters. The populist message, it rings true. Doesn’t matter who’s saying it.”
— Tara Palmeri, 42:20

Important Timestamps

00:45–09:15 – Palmeri’s solo analysis: why the shutdown is unresolved and the political calculus for both sides
12:05–25:41 – Extended panel debate: shutdown politics, SNAP, ACA, blame games
26:14–37:15 – Gavin Newsom’s podcast moment, Democratic branding, and implications for 2028
38:09–44:18 – Zoran Mamdani, AOC, Bernie, socialist/populist rally, and voter mobilization in New York
46:16–51:14 – President Trump’s health, MRI, and transparency standards

Takeaways

The federal shutdown is a high-stakes leverage game; real Americans are the losers while parties jockey for future election advantage.
Both Republicans and Democrats are employing tactics traditionally attributed to the other, reflecting a deep political realignment.
Populist rhetoric—on both the right (Trump) and left (Mamdani, Sanders, AOC)—proves highly potent with disillusioned or frustrated voters.
Democratic leadership faces new internal pressures from the growing power of left-populist movements.
Transparency regarding presidential health remains a bipartisan problem.
The impasse in Washington may not end until both parties have exhausted every means to escalate the “pain register,” underscoring a governance culture increasingly divorced from public service.

For more in-depth reporting, visit tarapalmeri.com or subscribe to The Red Letter.