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The Tara Palmeri Show
SOTU Postgame: Winners, Losers & What’s Next — LIVE with WH Reporter Marc Caputo
00:34:40
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A
A Mochi moment from Mark, who writes, I just want to thank you for making GLP1s affordable. What would have been over $1,000 a month is just $99 a month with mochi. Money shouldn't be a barrier to healthy weight. Three months in and I have smaller jeans and a bigger wallet. You're the best. Thanks, Mark. I'm Mayra Amit, founder of Mochi Health. To find your mochi moment, visit joinmochi.com
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B
Mark is a Mochi member, compensated for his story.
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A
And we are live. Welcome to the Tara Palmary show on the Red Letter on substack and YouTube. And we have Marco Pudo, who apparently is our most frequent guest and for good reason. He is a super plugged in White House reporter for Axios. He's always got the scoop. And so that is why we're going to dive right in on the state of the union. So congratulates to everyone who made it through. I didn't know if I would make it through personally, and I do this for a living. So to everyone who made it through. I'd love to hear from you. Just raise your hand. I just want to know if you did. But obviously there were a lot of machinations going on behind the scenes. And, Mark, is the White House happy with the speech? What do they.
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C
Yes. Yeah, they're happy. I mean, this is because it's a speech that you. Let's grade on the Donald Trump curve, right? This is not a speech that anyone else would give. Right. But for Donald Trump, this was sharp, it was concise, it was cogent, it made the points he needs to make. And in the White House's view, in the Trump sort of political operations view, this was the case he needed to start making in November, in. In December and October last year. And instead, I think Trump's first foray on the campaign trail to talk about the economy and affordability of word he hates was advertised as him planning to talk about affordability and the successes of his administration. And then he wound up calling affordability a hoax. Right. Using that phrase. And so he's just been sort of perpetually off message. And this was for what they want. This was on message. He hit all the notes that they wanted. And, you know, being an hour, 48 minutes, it hit all the notes that Donald Trump wanted.
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A
But here's the thing. He did say, we're in the golden age. I don't think he really acknowledged the pain that people felt. Unless I missed that.
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C
Oh, no, he will not.
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A
Yeah, yeah, okay.
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C
That. What? But in the White House's view is sort of a twofold thing. One, the economy is going to start to markedly improve. And it is improving. And the tax refunds from his various tax cuts bills will help sort of juice the economy. And then two, people need to be reminded of all, in the White House's view, good things that Trump and the Republican Congress have done, which in Trump's view, Republican members of Congress have failed to properly tout. But the reality is, among those who have failed to properly tout it is Donald Trump himself. But last night he did okay and
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A
it was the longest speech in history. And I wondered, is that by design to break records or is that just a motor mouth?
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C
That's a good question. That I don't know. I did check. It is shorter than Castro's address to the United nations in like 1960, which was four hours long. So, you know, there is, there are certain types of leaders who like to give very long speeches. Donald Trump is certainly one of them.
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A
So what I'm hearing is complaints, just little mumblings and chatters among Republican ranks saying like, this was great. He talked about his accomplishments the past, but did not really give a vision for the future. And obviously a lot of them, particularly vulnerable ones are going to be running in 2026 and they're going to need some like solid policy proposals to run on and they're going to need just like something. But as Trump, Trump's speeches generally are not very policy heavy. Right?
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C
They're not.
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A
Right.
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C
This one was to the degree. I'm sorry to cut you off. This one was to the degree that he actually ticked things off like we did. No tax on tips. Yes. It's not really fully no tax on tips, but he ticked off all of the different things that were in the one big beautiful bill. And that's just something that he just hasn't done in the past. But yes, he's never really been as much a forward looking type in that outside of talking about we need to pass regulation on congressional stock trading, more regulation and I think voter ID was the other thing. But by and large, yeah, if you're looking for policies to run on, Donald Trump is generally not your guy unless you're talking about immigration or crime crackdowns.
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A
Right. I mean his announcement of retirement accounts for low income workers is essentially a Biden policy from 2012, 2022.
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C
You know, wouldn't be the first guy that took something and call it his own.
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A
I know that is true. I do think, yeah, he probably did rally rank and file Republicans, he gave them a lot of fodder for the Internet, certainly. I mean, there moments when the Democrats didn't stand up, when they were like, it was, you know, it was. He's a good showman. Right. And it's political theater for him. And by design, the moments when he said, you know, well, let's run it. Eric, why don't you run my, my producer, why don't you run the tape of a moment when he really milked making a statement that's probably a 70, 30 statement, and then just said, look at them, they're not standing up.
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B
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Support this.
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So tonight I'm inviting every legislature to join with my administration in reaffirming a fundamental principle. If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support. The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens. It.
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A
Yeah. And then he said, you should. Yeah. And so he really melted.
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C
And then another. Yeah. And then another time, I think when he was talking about how parents should have the right to deny transgender surgeries for their minor children. And yeah, Democrats didn't applaud that. He was like, they're crazy. Right? You are right. He is a showman.
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A
Crazy. He said.
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C
Yeah, yeah, he, you're right. Is that he. He is a showman. I'll be the, the first president who really used the State of the Union as a show to like feature people in the audience. The wings, Reagan, a man who certainly knew show business. The speech, from what we were told by one of Trump's advisors, intentionally sort of front loaded a lot of the positivity and the winning and the patriotism at the beginning because basically you want to serve dessert first here. That is. He wanted to have sort of the imagery that people are going to see because no one really sticks around for a speech beyond 15, 30 minutes, maybe an hour.
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A
So it's all front long and boring.
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C
Yes. Right. Well, that's just because that's Trump. I mean, one of the. My favorite stories from his really rambly and terrible speech accepting the Republican National Convention nomination was he was supposed to give just a brief speech about how he survived the assassination attempt in Butler and then. And then say that this is the last time I'm going to Talk about it and then get out. But Trump stood up there and started to read the speech, and he didn't want to read the speech because he didn't want to talk about his vulnerabilities, in part, and he didn't get any feedback from the crowd. And then he just basically rifted for, I don't know, it was an hour and a half or something. And afterward, one of the folks on his campaign came to him, and it's like, what kind of. What. What happened? And he said, well, I gave the speech that you wanted me to give. And then I gave the speech I wanted to give.
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A
Yeah.
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C
And so you always have to remember that Donald Trump is going to be like that.
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A
So.
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C
So back to the idea that's what he wants to get.
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A
Yeah, he'll do what he wants to do. So back to the idea of the Democrats not standing. I mean, what were they really supposed to do? And let's be fair. Right now, they are riding. Yeah, they're riding. Not on necessarily, like, policy ideas right now or big wins. They're riding on Trump's failures. So, like, they sort of have been sitting on their hands for the past year and a half, frankly. And so it was almost like, you know, they didn't know what to do. What. What should have Hakeem Jeffries told them to do? Or Chuck Schumer? I don't know.
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C
No, I, you know, I haven't really thought of it. I think it's probably fine because to your point, there are just certain gravitational and. And sort of physical realities of campaigns and election cycles. And in a Trump, in a president's midterm, he generally loses seats, and that looks like it's going to happen in spades. And Donald Trump's approval ratings are at historic lows or near historic lows for him. And the question we have out of this is this is the speech that his advisors wanted to give months ago. It's the speech they want him to give for the next eight months. But even if he does that, is it really going to work? Sorry, I have my dog because he's been constantly whining at my side. So that's why he started to, you know, come in the screen.
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A
Okay, Panchetta is pacing the room, so it's fine between the two.
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C
He was just driving me crazy. I was trying to talk, and he was like, anyway, so I apologize. But this is the big question that the Trump operation has is can they find a way to sort of defy this gravity? And so far, the answer is no. This is the start starting gun of the midterms for the Trump operation he's laid out. This is how you talk about my accomplishments, our accomplishments. This is how you campaign on it now. Go forth and win, but not also
- [11:41]
A
giving them anything like specific to carry into the future. But sure, okay. But also, I do want to talk about early polling for a second. So CNN conducted its regular snap survey of people watching the State of the Union. And it's a cohort that, unsurprisingly, this year tilted 13% more Republican than the average population. And about two thirds of people like the speech. But the proportion of viewers who were very positive was only 38. 38%. That's a lower score than Trump has registered in any of his previous addresses to Congress. You know, it's lower than every recent presidency at this point in the cycle. Joe Biden scored 41% in 2022, Trump 48% in 2018, Obama 48% in 2010. And they all lost the House that fall. Well, Joe Biden, not as much probably because of Roe being overturned, but it was a shellacking for Obama and wasn't great for Trump either. So, you know, should Republicans be sweating right now that the die sort of already cast?
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C
I think they should have been sweating before the speech and they should be sweating afterward. You know, yeah, maybe if he'd gone out there and completely fall on his face and made things worse, they should be sweating more. But you know, this is, this is a tough environment. Donald Trump is experiencing a similar phenomenon that Joe Biden experienced, which is like, hey, things are getting better. The economic indicators for lots of people are, are showing pretty positive signs, yet the American people just don't feel good about things and they haven't for a while. And Joe Biden tried to tell people, I understand things are hard for you, things are going to get better. We're doing all these policies. Things are actually pretty good. Donald Trump doesn't quite do that. He's like, hey, things are kind of great right now and things are just going to get greater. And so he sort of skips a bit of that empathy.
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A
He skips, he skips the it's not great moment. Yeah. He's like, that's a hope you're feeling, but you're correct.
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C
Notably what he does and what he does, you're feeling.
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A
The Epstein hoax, actually, that's what you're feeling.
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C
Did address the fact that things are bad, but he said to the degree things are bad, it's Democrats fault. So that's his sort of solution for how the party.
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A
I mean, come on now, you've got a year and change into your presidency. You can't keep claiming Biden anymore. I did think it was funny that he praised Elon, who was randomly there.
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C
You know, he also praised Mom Donnie.
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A
Right.
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C
He's like my favorite communist.
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A
You know, Mom Donnie really charmed the pants off him. I just, I don't understand what happened in that meeting. A love affair, you know, that is, that was quite.
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C
Mamdani is a charismatic guy. And one of the stories that I kind of, I didn't quite know how to write, but I guess I could just say here that I thought of a few months ago was there's basically two ways for Democrats to handle Donald Trump, especially when it comes to crime and immigration. There is the Muriel Bowser way and sort of work with him now. She kind of had to. And in San Francisco, some of the kind of town leaders or the city leaders and business community did. So you work with them. Or there's the sort of J.B. pritzker and Tim Walway where you resist him and Gavin Newsome and in those cases, hero, you know.
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A
Right.
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C
So you become a hero.
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A
Talking about Mariel Bowser right now.
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C
But yeah, you wind up. Well, Right. I don't think she's. She's even running for reelection, but you wind up in a toxic situation where, where Trump wants to fight you. Mamdani chose the sort of, hey, keep your friends close, your enemies closer routine. Right. And displayed his considerable charisma. Donald Trump was also sort of a New York guy and likes that as well. And I think that sort of matters, but I think that's sort of what happened there. Apparently they still talk by phone, but as for Elon Musk, late night phone call,
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A
you know.
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C
Right. Sorry. But.
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A
But he did slam Mom Donnie for a second about making snow shovelers provide. You know, he threw it a little. He told. He threw in a little bit of a dig against mom Nadi.
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C
Of course he did. But the, yeah, the Elon Musk thing is interesting. Like, I do wonder, does Trump actually have a warmer, more charismatic relationship or a warmer relationship with mom Donnie than with Elon Musk? Who knows? You know, that that relationship has been somewhat repaired. But I don't think it's going to be as sort of first bro is the way it was before. Elon is certainly in the fold.
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A
Yeah. I can't believe he's back in the fold after being like, Trump's in the Epstein files. And then we get like, guess who
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C
else Is Elon, you are.
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A
Yeah. It's like actually, what is up with these men accusing each other being in the Epstein files then being in it themselves? All right, I want to get out to. I want to go to more shout outs. Jared Kushner got flowers. You know, Marco Rubio. That was a pretty long shout out. He gave him his, his full. He gave him the full clap. He's. He did acknowledge J.D. vance, but in a much briefer way, saying that he was going to carry on a war on fraud. Do you think that the party sees that as a signal as Trump is hotter on Rubio and wants him to be the future of the party? Or it was just a moment.
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C
Well, I wrote about this the other day, this interesting dynamic where people who talk to Trump, like advisors, confidants, visitors. He loves to be sort of his own pollster. And he has his new straw poll where he asks people who should be at the top of the ticket, Marco or J.D. j.D. Or Marco. Now, from everything we gather, Trump still does favor J.D. vance being at the top of the ticket and his successor because that accords with Trump's own decision. That is, Trump chose J.D. vance to be his vice president, therefore his successor. So.
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A
Right.
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C
Suddenly pulling that from him would be sort of an admission that he, Donald Trump, was wrong and Trump is not as inclined to do that sort of thing. But Trump also is very online, pays a lot of attention to, to tv, reads newspapers, cover to cover, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, the New York Post. And he has recency bias, like, are you in the headlines? Are you in the news? And the reality is the vice presidency is just, it's just not limited to J.D. vance and Dick Cheney might be an exception is by and large is sort of a graveyard for the politically ambitious. You don't really have a portfolio. Whereas Marco Rubio has a global portfolio, which puts him in the center of world affairs as Secretary of State. And he's in the White House all the time as the national security advisor.
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A
And he's actually making Trump look good because it seems like some of these, he's executed a few plans pretty well, unlike a bunch of other.
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C
Venezuela. Venezuela without a hitch. Like Venezuela's operation surprised everyone. And, you know, Cuba could be next up on the dock. Now they have to get through this current Iran situation, and who knows what that's going to look like. I think everyone's betting there's going to be some sort of military strikes, but the, you know, just what bombs and missiles fall, when, where and how is Really a big question mark.
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A
Yeah, he did mention Iran. He said, my preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world's number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon. Yeah. So kind of what he's always said, right? There's nothing, there was no news broken there.
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C
Right. The difference here is just how clear he is about that and the fact that we have so much military hardware there. And once you start that sort of inertia, that military buildup, it usually results in someone dying or something being blown up.
- [19:40]
A
Yeah. Okay, we're going to have, we're going to go to our sponsor chapter for a minute it a second and stay with us. And by the way, leave your questions because we're going to ask Mark a few questions. You can ask me and Mark about the state of the Union, what we thought. Close your eyes. Listen to Monday.com feel the sensation of an AI work platform so flexible and
- [20:01]
C
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- [20:04]
A
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C
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- [20:07]
A
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- [20:48]
C
Oh, boy. That, that. I'm sorry, I have the dog. Why don't you go first? How about that? I'm gonna steal from you.
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A
Oh my God. I, I, I, I just first have to note one thing. Some shade that was thrown. Did you see Melania walked over and gave Baron like a kiss and then completely ignored Ivanka who was like, hey, hey, hey, I know that's not shade.
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C
And I missed. I missed.
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A
I put Ivanka in the loser bucket for a second over there, but it was just so blatant, you know, I do think, I don't know winners probably Marco Rubio for getting the shout out that he got right. I think the, that he, I think that there was just like he was smart about giving the medal of freedom and making such a big show of the Olympic hockey team. Like I just think that, like, elicits patriotism across partisan lines. And I think in some cases, you know, the Democrats didn't really look great because of his theatrics. But I don't know if I'd put.
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C
Yeah, I'd like. I've never been a fan, whether it was Obama or Biden or Trump.
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A
Yeah.
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C
My own personal bias of congressmen shouting out, whether it's, you know, the famous, you lie against Donald Trump or, pardon me, against Barack Obama.
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A
Yeah.
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C
Or Taib and, and Ilhan Omar, you know, shouting down at the president. So for me, that's just sort of general, sort of loser behavior. It's just like, I don't know.
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A
He was being really petty and nasty with Ilhan, though.
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C
Oh, he, he, he did bait her into doing that, talking about the Somalian pirates.
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A
Right.
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C
So to the degree he wanted to elicit a reaction, She's a boogeyman. He sort of won that. But it. To the degree that he's just was sort of petty and nasty, that. That's not really sort of a winner's posture either. I, I do think one of the things that's notable about the, the initial part of the speech was there was kind of a callback to the old Donald Trump of 2016 and 2015. He even used one of his old riffs where he talked about going to win so much, you're going to be so tired of winning, and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And the new twist here was, and to kind of emphasize my point, here's the men's hockey team, and then they came in and everyone sort of cheered on and on. So Trump reinforcing the sort of elemental idea of win and like, we're going to be winners. I, I think, don't underestimate sort of the power of that image and that imagery. At the same time, maybe we, me, you, and the rest of us might overestimate the importance of these speeches because, boy, so much happens in this media environment, especially with Donald Trump so fast, that. Are we going to be talking about this tomorrow?
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A
Yeah. I mean, honestly, the New York Times just broke a story saying that they literally. They literally withheld a, an accusation against Trump in the Epstein files by a young girl. So, like, that's.
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C
I don't think they withheld the accusation. They can't find the files.
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A
Yeah.
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C
Or. So there's, there's basically two ways to look at doj. And I was trying to figure the right way to write about this is this is a DOJ incompetence story. Is DOJ INCOMPETENT in transparency and document production or is DOJ incompetent in a cover up? Because the accusation. Well, that's where you go back and forth. So like with this accusation, this accusation appears in two or three distinct places. So if they wanted to cover it up, why would they have included those slide decks and those other documents that have the accusation? On the other hand, if they're incompetent, maybe they're incompetent in covering up, or
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A
it's a combination of covering up.
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C
Maybe they can't find the files and they're just incompetent in, in, in document production.
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A
I don't literally, with this summer, we're responding to a FOIA request to Bloomberg and they were using hundreds of FBI agents to do it. But let's keep going back to the State of the Union. Someone noticed that maybe one of the winners was scotus. Sorry, that. Because Trump actually didn't attack them for.
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C
Right.
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A
The tariffs. So perhaps, although like the. You. You could see the camera on Amy Coney Barrett for a very long time. Yeah, right.
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C
Well, you know, I guess I'm not surprised that when the Supreme Court ruling came down that it would have been a perfect off ramp for Donald Trump to say, you know, disagree with the court's ruling. But you know what, we're going to cancel the tariffs and, you know, things those are unpopular, they don't poll well. But that's not. Donald Trump has believed in tariffs since at least like a speech. I think I tracked it back to 1987 when he talked about how great tariffs are and how they need to be used more often way back when. And Trump also is so focused on global affairs and tariffs are such a fantastic leverage tool for him, such a great weapon that he just hates losing it.
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A
Someone pointed out that there was a, a Supreme Court justice who did not attend. Yeah.
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C
And is that. Who. Who would that be?
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A
I don't know.
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C
Miami's. Would that be Miami's own Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor? No, suddenly I'm blanking on the, on the, on the Supreme Court justice. Who's the most recent Supreme Court justice. Oh, my God. It's so embarrassing.
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A
Oh, no. Yeah. Brett Kavanaugh.
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C
No, the most recent was who's Obama's last appointment? Woman. Oh, God.
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A
Oh, Obama. It's not Trump's.
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C
Probably Biden's. This is. No, let's change the subject because this is now.
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A
Okay, let's keep going. This is.
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C
I'm gonna Google it.
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A
Question from the audience.
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C
Yeah. Good Lord.
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A
Thanks, guys. For tuning in. Hello.
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C
Okay.
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A
The fact that we are Tanji Brown Jackson.
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C
There we go. I should know.
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A
Oh, yeah. Tahani Jackson. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That was Biden, not Obama.
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C
Right. I know I messed that up. But as I said, the fact. So maybe she didn't attend.
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A
Yeah. My mark is currently in Miami right now. By the way, the fact that we are so close to a bombardment of Iran and there are so little. There was so little discussion of. It was outrageous. We are a perpetual warfare state.
- [27:22]
C
I mean, well, we always have been. But yeah, I think everyone's sort of hitting on this. And yeah, you really see this criticism in more liberal circles where they think there's going to be a full scale scale invasion. There isn't. But we've just gotten so used to Donald Trump using sort of the military and military might that there is almost a kind of been there and done that quality. And this is really potentially risky stuff because of just the amount of hardware we have there and the sort of loss of life it could propel. A lot of people on the right don't want them to strike Iran and they're making that case to him, but I'm not sure how effective that's going to be.
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A
Yeah. We're hearing back from Cynthia Rice that Clarence Thomas was not there and Alito was.
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C
Clarence Thomas.
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A
Yeah. And Alito also was not there. I. You know what? I wasn't counting my Supreme Court justices. I'll be honest. I was probably eating popcorn at that time. Oh, there were a bunch of them that did not attend, apparently, according to my producer, Eric Neil Gorsuch, Sonia Sotomayor and Katanya Katani. Brown. Jackson.
- [28:32]
C
Brown. Jackson, yeah. Okay. Well, there we go.
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A
Okay, There we go. Nobody wants to know you blame them. I know.
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C
I would like they didn't want to
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A
get the popcorn thrown at them at the middle.
- [28:41]
C
In the middle of the tomatoes thrown at them. I mean, Trump, when that ruling came down on Friday, was steamed behind the scenes. I mean, he was fuming. And you know, we've seen in the past that presidents have sort of put them in or they've been in uncomfortable situations with that famous scene with Alito where Obama had criticized one of their rulings about campaign finance, about how it could allow for more foreign intervention and financing of campaigns. And Alito's mouth, knowing the camera was on him. That's not true. Like, kind of a big sort of issue. I think a lot of Supreme Court justices just don't want to deal with it. And you can understand what Trump. Because, man.
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A
Exactly. And you know what, they're constantly under threat, like their homes. They don't want to draw more attention to themselves. So maybe SCOTUS is. They were losers. The one who. Losers, ones who stayed home were the winners, you know, and Vance maybe perhaps a loser because he didn't get a great show billing from Trump. But I mean, it's fraud busting going to help him in 2028. I don't know.
- [29:48]
C
I don't know. And you know, Pete, Buddha Judge has taken to Twitter and posted a bunch of headlines of stories of how the Trump family has gotten richer from various insider deals and the connection between campaign donors and favorable action by the Trump administration. And Buddha Judge, like, hey, if you want to go look for fraud, look here. So, yeah, get ready for more of that. J.D. vance, right? Yeah.
- [30:12]
A
Buckle up. Okay, guys, we're coming up to our last comment and I just. The unofficial count of lies or misinfo was 433last I checked. Thanks for doing that, Rob. It's hard to keep up with all of them. Right. But, you know, difficult. It is very difficult. So I'm very thankful for all the independent journalists. There's actually an independent journalist, by the way, who found out that they had. They were. They did not include this, this accusation against Trump in the files. So in the Epstein files. We need all of you guys. Thank you for tuning in. This is collaborative. It is a community. Thank you, Mark, for hopping on. I know you've got a run over
- [30:53]
C
welcome and I'm sorry about my dog. He has just been really a pain in the ears.
- [30:56]
A
No apologies for dogs here. Dogs are always welcome. Panetta, you want to come for the finale? Come on.
- [31:02]
C
The race.
- [31:04]
A
She's sleeping and she's biz.
- [31:07]
C
Here's. Yeah, here's Peanut. He's just, you know, dachshunds are terribly cute dogs, though.
- [31:13]
A
So p. You want to like here? Come on, Panch. We'll give. We'll give Panch a little love and then we'll sign off, which is another. Come on, Pinchy, come here. This is another reason why everyone who's watching on audio should also go to the tower. All these. Panch.
- [31:29]
C
There we go. Oh, we can arrange a little hello date between them.
- [31:33]
A
She was definitely sleeping during the State of the Union, Trump could not keep her up.
- [31:37]
C
So I really, I wish he would.
- [31:38]
A
Yeah, you know, smelly, I think you need a bath. All right.
- [31:43]
C
Don't we all anyway.
- [31:44]
A
Don't we all. Thanks so much. Mark. Loved this. Thank you to everyone who tuned in. We're gonna keep doing lives more regularly. So keep checking my my notes and my posts on YouTube. And thanks Mark. Love to have you on again to check in.
- [32:00]
C
Thank you.
- [32:01]
A
Thanks everyone. And of course, subscribe. That's how you keep me in business. Keep me going.
- [32:07]
B
Hi, I'm Tamsen Fadal, journalist and author of how to Menopause and host of the Tamsen Show, a weekly podcast with your roadmap to midlife and beyond. We cover it all, from dating to divorce, aging to adhd, sleep to sex, brain health to body fat, and even how perimenopause can affect your relationships. And trust me, it can. Each week I sit down with doctors, experts and leaders in longevity for unfiltered conversations packed with advice on everything from hormones to happiness. And, of course, how to stay sane during what can be. Well, let's face it, a pretty chaotic chapter of life. Think of us as your midlife survival guide. New episodes released every Wednesday. Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.