← The Tara Palmeri Show
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- [00:00]
Alex Hoffman
Hey, want a cookie? Oh, I know you just ate, so
- [00:04]
Tara Palmieri
you're craving something a little sweet.
- [00:06]
Alex Hoffman
Besides, one cookie isn't gonna kill you.
- [00:09]
Tara Palmieri
How about half? Just a bite.
- [00:12]
MIDI Health Announcer
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- [00:13]
Tara Palmieri
Bite it.
- [00:14]
Alex Hoffman
Bite it. Food noise isn't fair, but Mochi health is your affordable glp. One source that puts you on a path to successful weight loss by quieting food noise.
- [00:23]
MIDI Health Announcer
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- [00:25]
Alex Hoffman
Learn more@joinmochi.com Mochi members have access to licensed physicians and nutritionists. Results may vary, but a lot's going to come down to who Trump endorses. I mean, certainly, I think a Trump endorsement in this race matters a lot more than a Kamala Harris endorsement in this race.
- [00:40]
Tara Palmieri
And we're live. Welcome to the Tara Palmieri show meets the red letter on YouTube and substack to talk about the hottest race in America right now. Senate race in Texas. It always captivates the imagination of the wonks for people who are truly engaged in politics because Democrats have come so close for so long to winning state ride in in Texas. But it hasn't been since 1994, if I'm correct. Yes, they haven't won since 1994 in Texas. But even Beto O', Rourke, he captured the nation. Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on these races, whether it's Colin Adriel Allred, who I think raised over $100 million. Beto O' Rourke are one single race and they get so close. It's become a bit of a white whale. And that's why I've got Alex Hoffman on the show. He's a Democratic strategist and he's always keeping it real about what is possible for the party and whether this is the perfect storm. Is it finally the perfect storm for Democrats? We'll see. We're going to break it all down. We're going to talk first about how, how did James Talarico, a guy who really ran on unity rather than resistance, on a more moderate, a more moderate message than an anti Trump message in, in Texas, how he was able to take back some of Trump's gains actually in Texas and, and to defeat Jasmine Crockett, who arguably had much bigger name identity and a large larger following and obviously a closer connection with the Democratic base, how he was actually able to win a primary. We're going to go into all of it and more. What does it mean? Next steps Republicans stick around. Leave your questions in the comment section. And we are going to put your questions up for Alex to answer because he's the inside guy. He's, he advises Both candidates and donors on strategy and how to help Democrats win. Alex, thanks for joining the show. I want to talk about this. How did James Talarico beat Jasmine Crockett despite her profile and the Kamala Harris endorsement?
- [02:59]
Alex Hoffman
Thanks for having me. And I think for. Just to answer those two quick things. One, by being the better candidate. And two, I don't think anyone's ever going to convince me that Kamala Harris endorsement in Texas is going to be a good thing. I mean, last I remember, I think she lost Texas by 15 points. I'm not sure that helps. I mean, sure, Democratic primary, but I think that proved that didn't really matter. You know, last time you and I talked, I said something negative about Kamala Harris, and the first thing Fox News did was clip that and say that. So before I do say things about that, Fox News, if you're listening, happy to say that live. But I mean, listen, I think. I know she just endorsed Talarico after the. After he won. I. I don't. I think the best thing that Kamal Harris can do to help Democrats win is not endorse or say anything personally. But look, when it comes to Texas specifically, look, I think Talarico ran a great race. I think, you know, first of all, he got out really early. You know, Jasmine obviously jumped in a little later. Colin had to get out of the race for her to jump in. You know, I, I think James really has done an interesting job weaving in faith and freedom and flag and the three things that usually Democrats are told that we don't represent. And I think especially in Texas, those places, those things actually really, really matter. And, you know, it's nice to see that there are candidates out there that, you know, don't have to just seed the ground to Republicans on that. But, you know, frankly, I, I think the. The big difference maker is that, you know, James was talking about Texas. Right. I think, you know, Jasmine's profile, and get me wrong, she's great, but Jasmine's profile is all about anti Trump and, you know, just all things that are negative to the MAGA administration and Naga movement. And I think James kept it very Texas, which, you know, to me is how you win.
- [04:52]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah, sorry about that. I just got cut out for a second from the show, and I had a. I've just had some technical issues, but I do think you're right. And I wonder if, you know, if this is a sign that Kamala Harris should probably stop making endorsements for the party and. Or maybe she needs to choose where the right place for her endorsement should be, and maybe it's also a sign that she should probably sit out 2028.
- [05:20]
Alex Hoffman
Yeah, I mean, I've got a lot of, A lot of opinions and feelings on that. I mean, look, first, you know, on the Texas side of it, you know, I think at the very beginning, this, you mentioned, you know, white whale versus perfect storm. And like, I, I've been definitely on record saying that Texas has been the Democratic white whale for a really, really long time. And I think a lot of people looked at this race as, you know, is this a perfect storm? Right. You know, are we gonna have the, you know, the, the right candidate up against, frankly, the Republican wrong candidate? Right. And, you know, I, I think, you know, Kamal endorsed Jasmine. They obviously have a couple good relationship. I mean, you know, I, you know, that was her choice. Clearly, that endorsement didn't mean anything. You know, look, I, I think especially for Texas, as much as I think the donors try to make this more of a nationalized race, you know, this race has to be about Texas, has to be about who's going to provide and do the best service for Texas. And, you know, I think James proved that and said that to a lot of people in the primary. And I think, you know, in the general, he's going to prove that he absolutely is the right choice to represent Texas. Right. And, you know, look, I, I think this is really going to come down to are we, for that quote, unquote, perfect storm, are we actually running against the right candidate? Right. I mean, you know, if it's Paxton versus Talrico, I really like our chances. Right. If it's Cornyn versus Talarico, you know, I, I think we're still waiting into that Beto o', Rourke, anti Ted Cruz feel, but certainly there's no, there's no doubt in my mind that Talarico gives us the best chance. He's always been the one that's going to give us the best chance. And, you know, as long as we have a chance against someone like Paxton, for sure, Cornyn, I think, sure still have a shot, but a lot harder road. Right. I mean, people forget John Cornyn's been around for a long time. Right. He knows that state. I mean, he's won in that state a lot. Now, obviously, you know, we've talked about this before, but a lot's going to come down to who Trump endorses. I mean, certainly, I think a Trump endorsement in this race matters a lot more than a Kamala Harris endorsement in this race.
- [07:18]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah, I think you're Right. And Trump, you know, by not endorsing, essentially created this issue that the Republicans are in right now. I find it to be very interesting that a lot of people who used to work for Donald Trump, that work on John Cornyn's team, they were not able to secure an endorsement for him. But we will get into that. You know, we'll get into that later. So I, I want to talk about Talarico's campaign. He really, like, he ran on faith unity coalition building and, and really the idea of running on faith. He's a pastor, he's in his 30s, early 30s. It's, it's really different than this kind of like punch back resistance we're seeing, the body slam politics, the anti Trump resistance it's offering. Do you think it offers a new model for how Democrats should run in 2028, or should they go with the Gavin Newsom style of like, trolling, Go, go. When they go low, you go lower?
- [08:13]
Alex Hoffman
Well, I mean, listen, as, as a person who's never bought into the when they go low, we go high mentality, I would love to just see Democrats fight back more all around the country. I think you're already seeing a lot of that. Certainly. I think a lot of our governors are showing how to fight back, Gavin being one of them. But there's many others that have really been standing up to Trump over the last year at this point. You know, look, I think James is a very different candidate, right? I mean, you know, for Democrats to win in Texas, we needed something different, right? We, someone who couldn't be painted as this, you know, Democratic quote, unquote, woke liberal out of touch, you know, anti American, lack of faith candidate. Right. Like we've been painted and tagged as that way too much. Right. And, you know, the fact that James can get up there and quote the Bible more than, you know, pretty much any other Republican currently serving, I mean, you know that that's a strong thing for us to have, right? I mean, you know, would love nothing more than for people to understand that just because Republicans say, or MAGA folks say that they represent the flag and faith and all those things doesn't mean that we have to seed the ground for that. Right? Like, we're just as patriotic, we're just as, you know, devoted to our own faiths. You know, I, I think if, if we had more candidates that sounded like, looked like James in a way that, you know, can get out of the stump and really connect with people at a personal level, I, I think that is a huge model that we should run on. I mean, now, granted, there aren't necessarily James Talaricos in every single state, but, you know, I think it's incumbent upon Democrats to find them. Right. I mean, you know, if we, if we could have found James Talarico, you know, you know, 10 years ago and, you know, did what Republicans do and kind of play the long game on some of these candidates where we really kind of position them to long term be successful, you know, who knows? I mean, you know, I'd love to find candidates like James, not necessarily on just the faith or that side of things, but just generally that, you know, around the country we should be cultivating and putting into positions where we can make sure that they win in the long run. And, you know, if that means that we lean more into certain messages that Republicans think is their own, that they have a monopoly on, so be it. Right? Like that. That's the thing. I like that I want to see about Democrats do, like, take the fight to them. Don't let them, you know, define the ground that we're fighting on. Instead, we need to be able to say, no, we, we own those values just as much as you can. You can't claim the flag belongs to you or that patriotism belongs to you or that faith belongs to you. You know, it, it has to be people deciding for their own which candidate really, truly represents that. And like, that's a great example going against Paxton. No one's going to tell me that in a James Talarico, James Paxton scenario that someone's going to look at Paxton and say, yep, you know, that person definitely represents my values of faith and all these things. Like, I, I just, I just don't see it. Right. And, you know, I think there's an authenticity to that that's been missing among a lot of Democrats. And, you know, I think James has that authenticity. Right. So, you know, in that mindset, could that be a perfect storm? It's possible. Right. But you know, again, it's still Texas.
- [11:19]
Tara Palmieri
I think we also need to consider the fact that James Helrico campaigned earlier. Like, he didn't, you know, he came back, campaigned before Crockett, and while she came on the scene late and with a huge national identity and a huge ID national, you know, name, he was laying the groundwork in places that she was not. But I wonder how much this exposure at the end from Colbert, when James, when Stephen Colbert said that they, that the FCC was telling him that he, that they weren't allowing him to air the Talarico interview, suddenly this Guy, James Talarico, this 30 something who was in Jasmine Crockett's shadow overnight raised $101.25 million. I mean, maybe that was a game changer. And then all millions and millions of people had to watch this interview that couldn't be aired on CBS News. Right. It was amazing. Like, what would you say that's worth in advertising, political advertising?
- [12:18]
Alex Hoffman
It's tough to put an actual number on how much that probably was worth. I mean, the Colbert thing, no question, helped tremendously. Right. I mean, you know, I, I think, you know, when I always think of Texas, I always think of Republicans want us to spend money there. Because if we're spending money in Texas, it means we're not spending money in other places that we could be winning. And you know, look, maybe they did a calculation somewhere. Someone said to the folks at Paramount, Skydance, hey, you know, James Talarico's big threat to us, we can't have him on. So maybe that backfired for them. I mean, they also could have seen it the opposite way, where maybe they thought, you know, this was going to just create more division among democr. I, I think no one's gonna really know what the backroom decision making was on how that came out. But in the end, there's no doubt that that tremendously helped James. Right. I mean, you know, I, I think that helps certainly on the donor side. Right. Like, I think, let's be clear, you mentioned it, James was out very, very early. James was definitely around at various different counties and places that other people weren't starting earlier. You know, he also happens to be, you know, a state representative, so he's always on the ground there. I mean, Jasmine obviously is in Congress, so, you know, she has to be in con. But you know, I think there's no question that James really, because he got out early because he had a lot of this kind of infrastructure that's built around. By the time the Colbert stuff happened, you know, I think it was like injecting jet fuel. Right. You know, versus Jasmine. I mean, look, I mean, I think if you ask any other operatives kind of in the space at this point, I think there was a lot of stuff written about she was running a, quote, unquote, unconventional campaign or non traditional campaign. I think that was kind of code for not running a very good campaign. You know, look, I, I think she obviously tapped into pockets of voters that I think obviously are very, very important to James winning in the long run. I'm glad to see that she conceded. I'm Glad that she endorsed him. I'm glad that she's saying that she'll do all she can because we got to make sure the Democrat wins, Right? Yeah. And listen. And listen, I hope she does that. Right? I hope. I hope that she's the one knocking on doors in Dallas and in. In Houston been, you know, making sure that, you know, you know, all those folks are coming out to vote for James that may have voted for her. And, you know, listen, I mean, the thing that got pointed out last night, this voter suppression issue, I mean, that's a real thing, right? That's been baked into the cake to fight against Democrats for a really long time, and we saw great examples of it yesterday. And, you know, I mean, it's just some of the things that. That James is going to consistently be up against. Right. And, you know, I, I think the more we can have real levels of Democratic unity here where we're actually coming together and saying, hey, you know, you may have voted for Jasmine before, but, you know, James, and, you know, you don't hate James, so you should get on board with James because he's definitely better than Ken Paxton and certainly, you know, better than John Cornyn by all metrics right now. So, you know, the hope is that the fact that James has already been out there in a lot of these counties that we don't normally go into, and, you know, now having one, and frankly, now having Jasmine support, I think, you know, that should hopefully carry him. Right. But like I said, now it's about the other side, right now. It's about, is it Paxton or Cordon? Where does Trump fall in on that? You know, is that going to be the thing that leads us to this perfect storm? Right. Is it going to be that we are up against a guy like Ken Paxton who has a terrible record, the guy was almost impeached, like, all these things. Right.
- [15:39]
Tara Palmieri
And he was getting divorced on biblical grounds.
- [15:42]
Alex Hoffman
Right, Right. Yeah, exactly. Right.
- [15:45]
Tara Palmieri
You could just list off the name. Oh, this guy is problematic.
- [15:48]
Alex Hoffman
Yeah. I mean, he's a dream to run against if you're any candidate, let alone someone like James, who, I mean, again, as you. You see James, you can't really question his faith. You can't really question who he is. He's as authentic as it gets. But on the other side of it, you look at Ken Bags and you go, hey, this guy's going to do whatever it takes to win or just suck up to Trump in any way, shape or form. And, and, you know, clearly we can't trust him. His People in his own party don't trust him. Right. Like, I think if that's the guy that James is running against, I think we got a great shot.
- [16:21]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah. And you didn't think that there was a great shot with Beto and you always. You thought that was a white whale, then you thought the same thing.
- [16:28]
Alex Hoffman
Yeah. Look, I mean, there are. There are a couple things that always, to me, are why this is a white whale. First of all, the voter suppression issue is real. Right. We saw that last night and we're going to see it again. Right. Like, there is no question that anytime we're going to see an instance where we're saying, hey, stay in line, stay in line. Someone on the Texas Supreme Court isn't going to say, nope, sorry, you can't vote. Right. Like, we're going to see that more not just for this next election, but in many elections to come. Right. Voter. So voter presuppression is one. Right. The second is, you know, we're always, especially as a party, especially in Texas, obsessed with demographics. Right. You know, we're. We're obsessed with this idea that, oh, you know, if we just get enough Latino voters or black voters or X, Y and Z specific demographic to vote for us, that's going to be it. Right. And I, I think certainly over the last couple of elections, we've shown that we aren't necessarily winning Latino voters and we don't necessarily have the right messaging. We're too busy, you know, in 2024, we were too busy talking about, you know, abortion and immigration instead of talking about, you know, education and healthcare. Right. And the economy. Right. And, you know, in my mind, I think where James can set this apart a little differently is a. He's, you know, he's already been on the ground, so he actually understands, I think, what real folks in Texas are actually looking for. But I think he can talk about issues directly affecting folks in Texas. Affordability. Right. Health care, education, energy. Right. I mean, all of those things are super important in a lot of these pockets where those demographics exist. You know, I don't think you could have said the same thing about Beto. I don't think he. He was able to market himself in that same kind of way. But again, like, I. I think this has to be that perfect storm. Right. It's a white whale until it's a perfect storm. Right. And no matter what, we're going to be fighting the suppression issues. We're going to be up against. Can we convince demographic groups to vote for us? We're Going to be up against FR an entrenched machine that's been in Texas, that's been winning in Texas for decades. Right. I mean, like you said, we haven't won statewide there since the 90s. Right. I mean, that's, that's a problem. Right. So, like, you know, I mean, do we have the infrastructure to compete with that? Will we have the money? But, yeah, we'll probably have the money because a bunch of people will flood a bunch of money in. But, you know, is that enough to get over the suppression issues? Is that enough to get over the demographic issues? But we'll see. I mean, and by the way, I'll say Lemas, think about this. You know, I think Democrats have moved from this model. And, you know, Greg Schultz says this all the time, that we used to be this party that was all about, you know, persuasion and then we moved to turnout. It was all about how do we, it went from how do we persuade people and how do we convince people that we have the right message and that we can actually win and that we're actually going to provide for you and support you as the voter to, okay, this is a math problem. We just got to get X number of people out there. We just got to get them out. And if more of our people show up, we're going to win. And I think where you have a candidate like James who maybe speaks to more of the independent voters or maybe speaks to maybe frankly even some conservative Republican voters who frankly don't like a guy like Paxton, and they can say, look, I may not agree with James 100% on every single thing, but certainly maybe he identifies a little bit more with my values or, you know, Texas values, as they'd say, than a guy like Paxton would.
- [19:40]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah, but if you are a Republican looking at Talarico, what weaknesses are you trying to exploit? Because I'm hearing from the White House that he's a radical. Mom, Donnie this and that. Like, they are trying to make him seem like he has radical as can as, you know, as a aoc, as they would like to. They see as the most radical, you know, Democrat in their minds. But that's not who Talarico is. And do you think that the people of Texas are buying that messaging?
- [20:07]
Alex Hoffman
I mean, I think that is, first of all, obviously, you know, I'm not a huge Mandami fan. I've been pretty on record about not being a big Mandami fan. I think he's going to cost Democrats a lot of elections because I think of some of his Radical left leaning policies are not what speaks to most of America personally. But I think you know what the typical Republican and MAGA playbook is. Anything other than us is radical woke left. And you know, I think it's about are people willing to open their own eyes and make their own decisions and you know, hear these folks out. Right. I mean I, I think the Trump MAGA world and landscape has moved people a little bit away from. Just because you have a D next to your name or an R next to your name doesn't necessarily mean that you represent one thing or another. Right. Like you can be your own independent person, make up your own individual mind and say, you know what? This person actually represents my values. This person does speak to me. This person does actually understand what it means to, you know, have to work multiple jobs or worry about affordability or worry about health care, worry about my kids education. Right. You know, I think we're starting to see in certain places around the country and Texas could be one of those places that you know, maybe a guy like James is appealing because you know, he understands and can speak to my own values. Right. I mean again, you know, I think they're going to try to paint not just him but any Democrat as this woke left liberal, whatever Mandani esque figure. But I think I give a lot more credit hopefully to the average American voter who hopefully can make up their decisions for themselves and not fall for the trap. Right. I mean if, if you're seeing on social media, if you're meeting this guy, I think those are two totally different versions of what you're hearing. Right. There's the version that MAGA Trump land wanna, you know, try to say he is versus when you actually hear from him or meet him, you go huh, that doesn't sound like what you're describing. Like I've never heard this guy, you know, a super woke left, Democratic, whatever quote a verse from the Bible and talk about how that's why we should be, you know, understanding things about our neighbor and you know, treating everybody with respect and you know, making lives better for people instead of harder for people. Right. I mean I think he had that great line about, you know, like the, we're talking about the wrong 1%. Right? Like, you know, talking, you know, the, the folks on the Republican side are going to always want to talk about the transgender issue or talk about, you know, Muslim ban X or whatever it is. And he's like, we're talking about the wrong 1% here. I mean like that's, that's A great line that I think has stuck with a lot of people that James used. And I think as much as Republicans are going to try to paint that, I think it's going to be hard with a guy like him.
- [22:40]
Tara Palmieri
You always see Democrats doing better when they pick preachers in red states. You know who's the. I'm blanking on his name.
- [22:48]
Alex Hoffman
Raphael Warnock in Georgia.
- [22:50]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah, Georgia. It's sometimes like they're, they. I do think when they pick preachers, they tend to do better because they resonate with the community in ways. And I don't know, it just seems like there seems to be a trend there.
- [23:04]
Alex Hoffman
I mean, honestly, I think Democrats have figured out over the last couple of cycles that, like I said, we shouldn't be seeding the ground on faith, on the flag. Right. Like, you know, we, we should be able to say that we have Democratic candidates. I mean, you know, honestly, a great example that have been a lot of veteran candidates. Right. There's plenty of veteran organizations that have popped up over the last few years and beyond that are running more Democratic veteran candidates. Right. And it used to be like, oh, you know, Republicans said, oh, you know, we're the strong military, you know, party and, you know, we, we only, we can run the good veterans. And that's become the exact opposite where a lot of veterans that we've had have been winning all over because they've looked around and said, you know, I don't want to send a bunch of people to war. And you guys lie to the American public when you're like, oh, no more wars, no more wars. And then, you know, stuff with Iran happens. Right. Like, it's like you're just starting to see some of those trends change a little bit, where I think all of a sudden you're starting to see Democrats or at least people identify as a Democrat who maybe 10, 15 years ago wouldn't have said the same thing. Right. And, you know, whatever expands our tent and brings in more of the independent, centrist, you know, voters that are out there. I'm good with that. Right. And then that that's how you win places like Texas and other states that we have a harder time winning. Right. I mean, I don't think going super left wins in places. Right. I mean, sure, Mondami in New York. Yeah. New York is a liberal bastard. Yeah, right. It's New York. Right, of course. But no one's going to convince me that you could run Mamdani in Texas and win. Right. Like, I just, I don't see that.
- [24:41]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah. It's interesting, though, because stepping away from all of this, it's the money, right? When Beto was in the race, it forced Republicans to spend a lot of money on Ted Cruz. It also ended up, you know, causing Democrats to waste a lot of money on Beto. It goes both ways, I guess they sort of cancel themselves out when you think about it. But do you think Talarico is going to force Republicans to spend real money to defend Texas this cycle, regardless of who the candidate is?
- [25:08]
Alex Hoffman
I mean. Well, first of all, I mean, Republicans are already spending money, right? Because, I mean, they were either spending money on Cornyn or Paxton or both. Right. I mean, I mean, certainly some people were definitely spending money on Wesley, too. But I think, you know, look, I. I think normally my answer to this question would be, you know, if I didn't think we had any shot in any chance and there wasn't a chance of a perfect storm, my answer would be, stop worrying about Texas. Don't pay attention to it. And, you know, we've got 36 governors races that are coming up. You know, if you're worried about the Senate, you should look at North Carolina and Maine, Alaska, Ohio, you know, we got to protect Georgia, we got to protect seats that have, you know, opening primaries right now for New Hampshire and Michigan, things like that. Right. And I, I think that still remains true. Right. Like, I mean, you know, I will say I advise plenty of donors who did, some of which donated to James and are supporting James, but there are plenty of them who I think also are very hesitant to jump into a Texas Senate race. Right. Like, they would rather probably put money into these 36 governors races or North Carolina with Roy Cooper or, you know, whoever shakes out in Maine, Alaska, things like that. And, you know, look, I, I think what Republicans have done a masterful job of, and you have to give them credit, right. They've done a masterful job of getting Democrats to spend money in states and races that we don't have a chance of winning. Right. The Beto example was a great example where we dumped God knows how much money into that race.
- [26:29]
Tara Palmieri
Over 100 million. Yeah.
- [26:31]
Alex Hoffman
Right. And. And like, the logic always becomes, if we didn't spend all that money there, could we have spent it somewhere else and actually have won in those places? Right? Now, look, 26 is a weird version of that. Right? Because, you know, we have to win the House, and there's a ton of districts that we could win, obviously, with all the gerrymandering fight that's happened. Right. You know, we. We really need to take the House and it's our best chance to really put a check on the Trump administration by winning that House. Right. You know, I think the governor's races are just as important given that. I mean, we have seen that governors have been the ones that have been standing up to this administration since day one. Whether it's filing lawsuits or, you know, frankly, like doing something need to do in their own states, you know, dealing with the ice insurgency and all this other stuff that's happening. I mean, you know, those races are critical and super, super important for us. And you know, I think to certain donors they're saying, well, you know, I could put money into ex governor's race and that's protecting an entire state versus putting it into a Senate race that we might or may not win. Right. And I think that's, that's the question mark. I, I think if, if we can get us into a position where again this perfect storm does happen, where maybe it is Paxton and it's Paxton versus Tellarico and you know, Republicans come out of that runoff super bloodied, a lot of bad blood. James can, you know, kind of be this middle of the road. You know, you don't like either of them or maybe you don't like them enough that you want to show up for them and we get all of our folks out. I think then, yeah, like I said, in that situation, that could be money well spent. But again, that's requiring a lot of things to go right. Versus, you know, North Carolina. If you dump a ton of money into Roy Cooper's race, I think we have a really good chance at North Carolina. Right. No one's going to tell me that we don't have a better chance in North Carolina and Maine than we do in Texas. Right. We just, we just do. Right. But it's about priorities. It's about making sure that we have the right money put all over to win everywhere. I mean, look, I'd love for the Democrats idea of that 50 state strategy to be a thing and be real and successful, but you know, we also have to be smart and practical about how we use our resources and where we use our resources. And you know, I don't think we were smart and wise in how we spent it in Texas in the past. I don't think that by putting it into certain races in the country that we've been previously that we've done a good job spending money. I think it's about, can we do that correctly this time and potentially win?
- [28:53]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah. I am wondering Though the Trump factor of it all, once he puts his finger on the scale, whether it's for Paxton or Cornyn, is that going to make it much more difficult for Talarico, or can we assume that Talarico has taken back Trump's gains in parts of Texas with Hispanics and that it really won't have that same impact it's had in prior elections?
- [29:14]
Alex Hoffman
I think if you asked a lot of folks on the other side of the aisle, they are, you know, they thought for sure it was a done deal, he was going to endorse Paxton, it was going to be a thing. And then, I mean, yeah, it was really, really close. But Cornyn, by all accounts, whether it was on the polling side or turnout wise, you know, Cornyn, in the end, you know, surprised people, right? He did better than people thought he was going to do. I mean, look, I quote that line about Trump always loving the winners side of things, right? I mean, Trump loves a winner, right. I think the reason that Trump never endorsed anybody yet is because he doesn't want to back the person that doesn't win. Right? Now, obviously, I think whoever he picks probably ends up winning the runoff, right? Whether that's corner and. Or pax. And I think, I think whoever he picks is going to win the runoff right now, I think just because that happens, the smartest thing that Democrats can do is then not make this race all about Trump. Right. I think where Jasmine I think may have, you know, misstepped a little on that, was making this race all about a reboot to Trump. And like, I just, I, I think this has to be about Texas. It has to be about, does John Cornyn or Ken Paxton have the best interest of Texans at heart, Right. Versus James Tallarigo. That I think makes a pretty good case that he cares about the people of Texas and that this isn't all about Trump. Right. I mean, you know, sure, it's going to make a difference on the Republican side, but to the independent and Democratic voters in that state, I mean, you know, I think it's about, you know, gas prices are going to be what they are. You know, price at the grocery store is going to be what it is. Health care is going to be what it is, right. I think, you know, the right person messaging that they can be the one to actually help serve the people of Texas that way versus the, you know, I'm going to bow down to Trump. Like, that's not the right message on the Republican side. I think you're going to see that the second after Trump throws his support behind one person, you know, they'll use that to, you know, obviously get a bunch of money that gets thrown into that one person. They'll use it to help with certain turnout come election time. But really, I, I think they're going to then pivot to just starting to attack Democrats and attacking James. It's not going to be about, oh, you know, vote for me because I'm the biggest MAGA loyalist. That's just to win the runoff. Right. That's not going to be how it is for the general. Right. Just for the runoff, they have to prove who, who's the one that's, that's, you know, the anointed one, as they'd say by Trump.
- [31:37]
Tara Palmieri
But it doesn't really matter. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because the Kamala Harris endorsement didn't work in the beginning. You know, it didn't work for Jasmine. And do you think that if Talariko goes even further and he sort of rejects the establishment of the party, he hasn't done that yet. But to go after Biden, to go after Kamala Harris, which do you think that will help him in the general?
- [31:59]
Alex Hoffman
I don't think he needs to. I, I think, I think, like I said, I think the more he talks about Texas and Texas values and talks about what's going to help the people of Texas, the better chance he has. Right. Like I said, I, I, I view Kamala Harris is completely irrelevant to this race. I think, you know, there's no point in talking about Biden or the other stuff. Like, in the end, like, you know, as much as Trump wants to blame Biden for every single thing that goes wrong or is going wrong with his administration, I mean, a lot of these things are his own doing. Right. Like, Joe Biden didn't decide to bomb Iran and then now seeing what gas prices are. Right. Like Joe Biden didn't decide to, you know, send ICE to all of these cities and, you know, cause a lot of backlash. Right. Like Joe Biden, you know, isn't mentioned. You know, what is it, 36,000 whatever times in the Epstein files. Right. Like, it's, it's, these are all things that have nothing to do with Joe Biden and frankly, nothing new. Kamala Harris either. That, like this idea that, you know, that for some reason that a Democrat should be responding to it the same way that Trump does. I think it doesn't make any sense. I think, I think Telarico should be talking about the issues that matter to Texas, whether that's you know, affordability being the issue, health care being the issue, generally just, you know, economic things. I mean, you know, what was it? The, you know, the Carvel lines, the economy. Stupid. Right. Like, you know, just like I would
- [33:18]
Tara Palmieri
rather portability, the thing that Trump that calls a hoax and can't talk about,
- [33:22]
Alex Hoffman
I mean, calling it a hoax all he wants, but it's what he ran on to win in 24 and he hasn't done a damn thing about it since. Right. So, I mean, look, in the end, I want, whether it's James or frankly, any candidate around the country to be talking about the issues that matter to people, because I think that's how we're going to win.
- [33:41]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah. Okay. Here's a question from T. Hamilton 007. Thanks for tuning in. Does Alex think Democrats can win the House and Senate in midterms? Thank you.
- [33:51]
Alex Hoffman
Both House, I think absolutely. I think we've got a great chance. The House. And you know, I want to again give another shout out to the governor side of things, too. And like, I don't. I know that gets lost in the shuffle sometimes between the House and Senate, but I think we got a great chance at winning a lot of these governor's races. House, I think we have a great chance on the Senate side. Look, I think North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, you know, I think Ohio is kind of on the bubble. Right. You know, I, I think those are races that we have a really, really good chance. It. Right. You want to then throw Texas in the mix. Like I said, perfect storm. Let's see what happens. But North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio, I mean, those are places where I think we have a really, really good chance if we play our cards right. We've got obviously a stellar candidate in North Carolina with Roy Cooper, you know, Maine, I think depending on how that primary shakes out, either one will emerge as a great candidate for us to hopefully win in that state. And, you know, I think Alaska, you know, certainly I think we've got a chance there. Ohio, you know, look, Sherrod Brown running again, it means that that's a real thing. I think. I wish more people would have paid attention to Ohio over the last few years. I mean, certainly, you know, look, I would have loved for a guy like Tim Ryan to have run for governor there and have been on the ticket for that at the same time. But certainly, I really think, you know, that's a state that, if we're talking about where affordability matters and we're talking about where some of the impacts of some of the things that Trump has done. Republicans have done over the last few years. You know, Ohio definitely feels it. I think a guy like Sherrod Brown definitely understands that, you know, and I think, you know, that's something we should look at. But then again, like I said, you know, we got to hold on to Georgia. Right. You know, we have to hold on to the Michigan seat, so whoever shakes out of that primary, too. Right. You know, and, you know, places like New Hampshire. So, you know, I, I would say the. The range for us on the Senate side is anywhere between 49 seats and 51 seats. Right.
- [35:35]
Tara Palmieri
Wow.
- [35:35]
Alex Hoffman
I think. I think 49 is the low end, and I think 51 is the high end. I don't think we're going to above that.
- [35:42]
Tara Palmieri
Okay, here's a question from Jesus Costa. Will the Republicans be able to come together after a bruising primary?
- [35:53]
Alex Hoffman
Great question. I assume this is speaking just to Texas. Right. I mean, look, I think what's the old adage that Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. Right. I think that has been a consistent thing that has happened, certainly. I think the MAGA stuff has definitely thrown a little bit of a wrench in that normally. But, you know, it's hard for me to imagine that regardless of who wins in Texas, that the Texas Republicans don't, you know, come together and say, okay, great, time to go beat the Democrat. Right. You know, I. I think it also depends on who is at the top of the ticket. Right. And, you know, who Trump picks. Right. I mean, if Trump goes with Cornyn. Well, Cornyn's been there forever, Right. And he's. He is the tried and true person there. I think a lot of people who would have been Paxton support. I think they will go with Cornyn because of that. I think it's the other way around, though. Of, like, do Cornyn supporters necessarily go with Paxton? Right. I mean, I think obviously, you know, they're much more traditional Republican. Right. They are the. Right. They have the establishment Republican. Right. Do they go with. I mean, that to be clear, that same establishment type of Republican wanted Ken Paxton gone only a year or two ago. Right. So, I mean, this idea that, like, they're going to get behind him maybe. I mean, I think most of them are going to get in line behind the Republican because that's what Republicans do. But I'd love to pick away at some of them to not necessarily come out and vote for James, as great as that would be. Don't get me wrong, like, if they want to hold their nose and say, I don't Agree with them all the time. But, you know, I can agree with him 70% of the time, and that's better than Paxton. I'll take it. But I'd also happily take that they just stay home and don't vote. Right.
- [37:40]
Tara Palmieri
Like, I mean, choose the couch kids, Right?
- [37:43]
Alex Hoffman
Yeah, absolutely. Right. I mean. Yeah. I mean, I don't have a problem. If a bunch of them want to stay home because they're mad that their Republican candidate didn't win. That's fine by me. Whatever helps us win.
- [37:53]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah. I mean, two sets of voters already rejected Cornyn in the first round of voting. And is that really survivable?
- [38:02]
Alex Hoffman
Yeah, I mean, well, yeah, I mean, I mean, and it's a good way to think about it, right? That, like, you know, however many votes Paxton got, how many votes Wesley got, right. Those are people saying, I would rather have one of these people over John Cornyn. Right? Now, you can argue that just because of that doesn't mean that everybody who voted for Wesley wants to then have Paxton. Right. I mean, that's true. A lot of them may have just said, I don't want John Cornyn, but I definitely don't want Ken Paxton. Right. Like, I think. I think there's plenty of people on that side that probably think that. And it's a question of, okay, okay. Do those folks go one way or the other? I. I mean, I can see a bunch of those voters going to Cornyn. That wouldn't shock me. Right? Because in the end, you know, they may not love Cornyn, but if they hate Paxton, they're like, well, that's. That's a bridge too far for me. But like I said, they want to stay home. I'm also fine with that.
- [38:49]
Tara Palmieri
If you had to put money on the runoff today, who wins?
- [38:53]
Alex Hoffman
Whoever a. Whoever Trump endorses. But I mean, like I said, I think Trump wants a winner. Right. I think it would be hard for me to imagine after Cornyn outperforming, that he doesn't now have a window to get Trump's endorsement and win. But I also, like, it's such a wild card because I think it's all about who whispers and says the right thing at the right time. Right. I mean, the thing that obviously Ken Paxton has been running on has been that, like, I'm. I'm the true MAGA loyalist. I'm the true maga, you know, whatever. Right. And I mean, you know, how much of this is a loyalty thing versus a winning thing. Right. And by the way, yeah. Cornyn and them may have you know, bashed heads on a couple of things here and there, but overwhelmingly Cornyn's voted with Trump's stuff almost every time, right? So like, I mean, you can't really say that Cornyn hasn't been a Trump and MAGA loyalist either, right. By that regard. So like, I don't know, I think it's hard for me to imagine that he doesn't want to pick the winner in this race because he hates losing, as we well know. So I don't know. I mean, like, I, I think if I, if I'm the, the Democrats looking at this, I don't want it to be Corny. I want it to be Paxton. Right. And I think if I, if he as a Democrat is saying that, I think the smart people are saying, well, then maybe he should be just like
- [40:15]
Tara Palmieri
they were hoping it would be Jasmine, right? They were hoping Jasmine. But here's the thing. I find it very. Because I know the, the swamp very well. You know, Jeff Rowe is an enemy of Chris La Civita. Chris Lacivita was Trump's co campaign manager, former co campaign manager who's working with John Cornyn. You would think because of his relationship with Trump, he would have been able to get Trump to give an endorsement to Cornyn. And Trump supposedly does not like Jeff Rowe because of whatever La Civita has whispered in his ear about Jeff Rowe. And Jeff Rowe is working on Paxton's campaign. But clearly Trump doesn't really give care about these political consultants. He's just like, I don't want to lose.
- [40:55]
Alex Hoffman
He would give politics. What have you done for me lately? Business. Right? Yeah, I mean I think it's a, it's a what have you done for me lately? Business. It's a lot of these, like we've talked about this. There's plenty of former Trump X person you to fill in the blank, right? I mean do we think that Donald Trump is calling up former whoever and saying, hey, you know, what do you think about this? No, of course he does actually.
- [41:16]
Tara Palmieri
A little weird like that he had,
- [41:18]
Alex Hoffman
well, he doesn't have reporters for sure. I don't, I don't know about if every single former Trump ever person who's in the weeds on campaign relationship.
- [41:27]
Tara Palmieri
It shows you how close they actually are to Trump. And you know, in Washington, everyone is selling access. That is what their business is. There's one last question we are going to take from you awesome audience participants. What did the Democratic turnout in Texas tell us about the midterms you think, Alex?
- [41:44]
Alex Hoffman
It's a good question. Look, I think there is definitely Democratic enthusiasm, for sure. I mean, you know, I, I make it my business to go to as many states in a year as humanly possible, to not just be the whole inside the Beltway, only hear about what happens here. And, you know, I mean, this is anecdotal for sure, but every, whether it's Uber driver, hotel worker, or, you know, bar bartender, waitress, waiter, whatever, you know, like, I mean, I talk to all of them and always say, like, oh, you know, like, who are you voting for? Who'd you vote for for the last election? Like, you know, what do you think about what's going on? You know, what issues do you care about? And, you know, you're definitely starting to see a little bit of a shift, I think, you know, over the last year, certainly when Trump first took over in January, I think Democrats were in the absolute toilet. Like, there was, there was, there was nowhere lower where we could have gone for how people thought about Democrats at that point. And I think, you know, we definitely stumbled over the last year as a party. And, you know, I think stuff with some. How we handled the shutdown or just, you know, up against Trump, you know, this idea of, you know, people don't. Didn't like what Democrats stood for, they didn't like how we fought or didn't fight. Right. I think that over the last, certainly four or five months, that's definitely changed. Right. I think people are starting to see Democrats actually standing up for things, starting to really fight, starting to really say, you know, it is, this is not what you were promised and they lied to you, and this is just a giant grift on the Republican side. And I think Democrats are starting to finally get that. If we talk about the issues that matter, if we focus on those issues that matter, if we put up candidates that are authentic and, you know, actually represent these folks, and if we don't take the bait, frankly, and run down every single rabbit hole that they throw at us, that chances are that Trump and the Republicans are going to do enough to kind of bury themselves and say enough stupid things or do enough stupid things that people are going to go, whoa, I didn't sign up for this. Or, like, that's definitely not what I want. And, like, at least the other side is talking about things that I care about. Right. You know, I, I think, you know, one of the things that we've talked about with folks previously and a lot of my donors have cared about, I mean, there's been a ton of special elections since Trump took over And Democrats are winning there all the time. Right? It's. And it's all around the country, we've been winning those special elections. Right? Now, look, you can argue that we're a lot better as a party when, you know, the eye of Sauron focuses on one specific thing. And sure, that, that's a really good criticism, but I think that we're winning in places in these special elections that we don't necessarily normally win in. And that's a direct reflection on Trump and the Republicans and how they are, quote, unquote, governing or not governing. Right. So, you know, I think Texas and the special elections and other places around the country are just representation that I think people are pissed. I think, you know, I've got one donor that always says that people are broke, scared and pissed. Right. And I think that's a, That's a really good thing to understand what the average person in America thinks and feels right now. And I think Democrats are showing that they're the only party that's really focusing on ways to help people versus, you know, either trying to get rich off the American people or off some giant grift or, you know, not releasing things like the Epstein files or dropping a bunch of bombs and starting another war in the Middle East.
- [45:01]
Tara Palmieri
I think as a national party, they've had a hard time actually coming up with any great ideas except anti Trump resistance. But I do think you're right within the states and at these, within these, These candidates are the ones who are speaking to the, the people on the ground at a national level. I haven't seen anything too inspiring or too great coming out of.
- [45:22]
Alex Hoffman
No, I mean, there's that line consistently that about Democrats that I use all the time is that we're really great at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Right. So, like, just to be clear, this isn't over. Right. Like, just because we had a good showing and we got the right candidate in Texas doesn't mean that a, we necessarily win Texas. Right. It also doesn't necessarily mean that we win midterms. Like, we have a lot of work to do. Right. We have a lot of money that needs to be raised. We have a lot of messaging that needs to be done. You know, we have to keep fighting on the ground in these states and doing what matters. But, you know, like I said, as long as we keep putting up the right candidates, talking about the right issues, and as long as Trump and the Republicans on that side keep doing what they're doing, I think we have a really good chance Right. And, you know, look, I, I don't want us to then get into that mindset of, okay, now we should just pat ourselves in the back and we all, you know, get to say, we, you know, mission accomplished. We're all good and done here. Like, no, because then we got 28 and then we have to focus on 30 and 32. Right. Like, we, we need to be the party that doesn't just always live in win now mode. Right.
- [46:20]
Tara Palmieri
Yeah.
- [46:20]
Alex Hoffman
I mean, I'm obviously a big sports fan and, you know, I, I always, you know, I happen to root for certain teams that are always in win now mode. Right. And that's great for sports, but it's not great for politics. Right. I mean, if we're always in win now mode versus, like, how do we build for long term success? That's how you get to where the Republicans were. Right. Like Trump becoming president in 16 was after decades of long term planning. Right. The idea of project. Oh, yeah, not necessarily Trump, but Republicans itself. Yeah. Think about it.
- [46:51]
Tara Palmieri
A Tea Party, I think, I actually think that was born out of chaos. I don't think that was born out of structure.
- [46:57]
Alex Hoffman
I think Trump, Trump was a vessel for what showed up in 16. Did they think in 16 it was going to be Trump? No. They were like, it's going to be Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. It's going to be one of these guys are going to be the guy. Right. Like, they didn't think it was going to be Trump. He became a vessel that inherited decades worth of serious infrastructure and long term planning. The Republicans did. Right. We haven't had a version of that. I mean, listen, Project 2025 is a great example. That's not something that just came out of thin air. That's something that's been worked on for a long time. Right. That's long term planning. Democrats, like, we need to be in that mindset and that mentality. I want us to win the midterms. Absolutely. But then we got to figure out, how do we win the next one, the next one, the next one, and plan that out.
- [47:38]
Tara Palmieri
You're actually exhausting me right now. Alex, thank you so much for coming on the show. I can tell from everyone who's commenting they are really enjoying it. And I thank you all for joining. And, and the way to support this show is to hit the subscribe button, follow the red letter, follow me on the tarapaulmary.com Become a paid subscriber. You get my exclusive reporting straight to your inbox. Support independent journalism. And that is how you can never miss out on all of my great work and my great guests like Alex who always keep it real with me. And that is a great thing. The conversation that we are having right now, the same conversation that we would be having over the phone. And I only choose guests that I know are going to keep it real. We don't need spin. So that's right. Thanks to all of you and we'll do this again soon.
- [48:29]
Alex Hoffman
Looking forward to it.
- [48:35]
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