The End of MAGA? MTG Leaves Sinking Ship

Summary

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The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: The End of MAGA? MTG Leaves Sinking Ship
Date: November 25, 2025
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guests: Rick Wilson (Co-founder of The Lincoln Project), Burgess Everett (Semaphore Congressional Bureau Chief)

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Episode Overview

This episode examines the future of the MAGA movement as Donald Trump’s influence appears to wane and leading personalities like Marjorie Taylor Greene break from the fold. Tara Palmeri brings together veteran anti-Trump strategist Rick Wilson and congressional reporter Burgess Everett to discuss whether MAGA ends with Trump, how the movement might mutate, and what could replace it in the conservative political landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Does MAGA Die with Trump, or Mutate?

• Rick Wilson’s Thesis: The belief that MAGA disappears when Trump is gone is wishful thinking; the movement will mutate rather than end.
  • “It is a comforting bedtime story for people who do not understand Donald Trump, the movement he built or the way power works when an authoritarian personality starts hearing the clock tick. MAGA ... does not end when Donald Trump does, it mutates.” (00:20, Rick Wilson quoted by Tara Palmeri)
  • Trump operates outside of typical political norms, ignoring tradition and law, and may remain dangerous even as his power wanes.
    • “Donald Trump is thinking about how he can keep burning things down, how he can keep profiting from the presidency, how he can keep the spotlight on him until the last possible minute.” (01:25, Rick Wilson)
• The Scorpion Analogy: Trump’s nature is unchanging—even as he loses power, he remains a threat.
  • “It’s Donald Trump, it’s the scorpion on the back of the frog. It is the behavior that’s wired into his character and his personality.” (01:44, Rick Wilson)

2. The Money Power & Project 2025

• Who Keeps MAGA Alive?
  • Powerful interests in finance and tech have benefited from MAGA’s policies and have incentives to perpetuate its style of governance.
    • “Folks in the money world, in the Silicon Valley world, in the private equity world ... want to see the continuation of the sort of Project 2025-infected policies that serve the top end of the MAGA food chain, not as much as the base.” (02:04, Rick Wilson)
  • The appeal of wielding executive power like a weapon will persist among elites even as Trump fades.

3. Could Trump Try to Cling to Power Beyond His Term?

• Rick Wilson’s Warning:
  • “I think there will be a part of [Trump] that wants to say, sometime in 2027, ‘Nope, I’m going to run again.’ Whether it’s legal or not doesn’t matter. ... He’s got an ability to cause chaos that’s unparalleled in American political history.” (03:23, Rick Wilson)
  • American institutions and courts may not be reliable bulwarks given Trump’s willingness to cross lines.
  • Precedents for his unpredictability are plenty—he already refused to accept the 2020 results.

4. What’s Next: Mutation of MAGA?

• Tara Palmeri:
  • The energy and coalition behind MAGA may fragment or transfer to figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene or other “America First” extremists.
  • The movement is complicated by the presence of white nationalism, antisemitism, and racism, which Palmeri sees as unsustainable for a party courting minority voters.
    • “They have white nationalism basically infecting their party, antisemitism, racism, extreme sexism. ... I don’t know how you can sell that for so long to a party that relies on a coalition of immigrants.” (05:17, Tara Palmeri)
  • Trump’s celebrity status enabled him to unite disparate groups within the party—a feat future leaders may not repeat.
    • “People take for granted the fact that President Trump had such high name ID ... I just don’t know who that next person is on the right that could lead in the way that he did.” (05:44, Tara Palmeri)

5. Congressional Perspectives & Internal GOP Tensions

• Burgess Everett:
  • The Republican coalition remains fractured: populists, Tea Party holdovers, and establishment conservatives still jostle for control.
    • “The Republican Party is kind of this tapestry of the last 20 to 30 years ... Trump has been able to cobble those folks together ... but ... he doesn’t quite have that tight iron grip that he had over his party.” (07:03, Burgess Everett)
  • Proposed populist measures (e.g., “$2,000 tariff dividend checks”) still meet resistance from fiscal conservatives, indicating conflicting impulses within the party.
• Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Departure:
  • Seen as emblematic of intra-party fissures and how the MAGA mutation might play out in Congress.

6. The Looming Danger of a Lame Duck Trump

• Rick Wilson’s Final Warning:
  • Trump’s propensity to cross red lines—especially with executive power—remains deeply concerning, particularly regarding civil liberties and foreign affairs.
    • “Donald Trump has repeatedly shown us that if you say the line is right here, don’t cross it, he will cross it... I’m deeply concerned about that, especially on the civil liberties front ... and on the foreign affairs front as well.” (08:05, Rick Wilson)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Rick Wilson:

  • “MAGA does not end when Donald Trump does—it mutates.” (00:20, quoted by Tara Palmeri)
  • “He may be losing power, but it doesn’t mean he can’t be dangerous with the power he continues to have.” (01:50)
  • “The Republican Party is kind of this tapestry of the last 20 to 30 years ... Trump has been able to cobble those folks together ... but ... [now] he doesn’t quite have that tight iron grip.” (07:03, Burgess Everett)

• Tara Palmeri:

  • “They have white nationalism basically infecting their party ... I just don’t know who that next person is on the right that could lead in the way that [Trump] did.” (05:17, 05:44)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:20 – Tara Palmeri introduces Rick Wilson’s thesis about the future of MAGA.
• 01:25 – Wilson describes Trump’s uniquely transgressive presidency.
• 02:04 – Discussion of elites’ investment in keeping MAGA’s power structures.
• 03:05 – Wilson speculates on Trump’s motives post-presidency.
• 05:17 – Palmeri on MAGA’s toxic elements and Republican coalition challenges.
• 07:03 – Everett on the persistence of Tea Party, MAGA, and establishment factions in Congress.
• 08:05 – Wilson’s warning about Trump escalating aggression as a lame duck.

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Tone & Language

The conversation is frank and urgent, with a clear sense of concern—especially from Rick Wilson—about the unpredictability and potential destructiveness of Trump and the post-Trump MAGA movement. Palmeri brings her signature incisiveness, pressing guests on the practical political realities and the unsustainable contradictions within the GOP’s new coalition. Everett offers a measured, analytic perspective on the shifting congressional dynamics.

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Summary

This episode of The Tara Palmeri Show presents a sobering look at what becomes of MAGA and the Republican Party as Trump’s hold weakens. Far from fading, the forces and incentives that created MAGA appear poised to mutate, possibly taking on new—and perhaps darker—forms as establishment, populist, and extremist strands vie for dominance. The episode underscores how both elite interests and white nationalist currents may shape whatever comes next, and warns that Donald Trump, even as a “lame duck,” remains unpredictable and potentially destabilizing.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

The favored wisdom is that when Donald Trump goes MAGA is going to go along with him. But Rick Wilson argues that won't be the case. Quote it is a comforting bedtime story for people who do not understand Donald Trump, the movement he built or the way power works when an authoritarian personality starts hearing the clock tick. Maga, he writes, does not end when Donald Trump does, it mutates. Joining us, co founder of the Lincoln Project and host of the Lincoln Project podcast, the man who wrote those words, Rick Wilson, semaphore Congressional bureau Chief Burgess Everett and host of the Tara Palmieri show and author of the Red Letter on Substack, Tara Palmeri. Rick, lay out your argument for us.

[C]

Look, I think everyone has always underestimated.

[D]

Donald Trump's degree of transgression. You know, this is a guy who ignores the law, who ignores precedent, who ignores tradition, who ignores all the things that make the American presidency what it ought to be in the Constitution. And so I don't think that we can estimate a sort of like peaceful decline. Most presidents in the second half of their second term, they're thinking about their legacy. They're starting to wind down. They're thinking about the, the presidential library and the speeches. Donald Trump is thinking about how he can keep burning things down, how he can keep profiting from the presidency, how he can keep the spotlight on him until the last possible minute.

[B]

To what end, though?

[D]

It's Donald Trump, it's the scorpion on the back of the frog. It is the behavior that's wired into his character and his personality. He may be losing power, but it doesn't mean he can't be dangerous with the power he continues to have.

[B]

Doesn't the scorpion in the back of the frog ultimately kill the frog when they get to their it gets to its destination, yes.

[D]

But I do think there are a lot of motivations, as I pointed out in the piece from folks in the money world, in the Silicon Valley world, in the private equity world. They want to see the continuation of the sort of Project 2025 inflected policies that serve the top end of the MAGA food chain, not as much as the base, but it is going to evolve and change. I don't think that a machine that politically has been as useful to people like that as the MAGA movement has. It's done a lot more for them than it's ever done for the folks with the red hats and the boat flags. I think those people will never want to let go of a authoritarian model that uses executive power like a weapon against any opponent. So I think we're going to see a continuation of the support for Trump's technique and style among those people until the very last minute.

[B]

Does Donald Trump remain. I mean, from at first glance, you might be arguing that Donald Trump tries to stay in power. Do you accept that? Or is it as it. As MAGA mutates, does it find a new host?

[C]

Look, we thought as a country that Donald Trump would accept the results of 2020. And then, you know, a few weeks later, we had people storming the US Capitol on his behest. And I think that Donald Trump is a gambler. I think he's erratic. I think there will be a part of him that wants to say, sometime in 2027, nope, I'm gonna run again. Whether it's legal or not doesn't matter. You already see a lot of folks like Steve Bannon pre gaming this and playing this out, and people are gonna say, oh, well, the courts will stop it. And the question is, will they? And he knows that he's got an ability to cause chaos that's unparalleled in American political history. And I think that that is something that he will use to try to stay in the. Whether he can stay in power or not, that's a big fight ahead of us. But I don't think you should write off the fact that Donald Trump may try, you know, in fall of 2020, right after the election, I said, the.

[D]

Guy'S gonna run again in 2024.

[C]

And people went mad.

[D]

They were so angry with me, like, how dare you say that?

[C]

I'm like, do you not study this guy?

[D]

Do you not understand what he is now, after a decade of observation?

[C]

So that's where I'm coming from.

[B]

Well, the Republicans could have done away with it if they convicted him, but in the Senate, but they decided not to. They left that door open, I guess, on the subject. Thanks, Mitch of Mutation. Tara. At some point, Donald Trump is not going to be around. At some point, whether it's, you know, him not running for office again, or not running and losing or running and losing or whatever, there will be a movement post Donald Trump. Does it still look like maga or does it mutate into something else? And I asked the question because there's a lot of chatter online that MAGA is over much the way that the Tea Party is over. Tea Party mutated into maga. MAGA is now going to mutate into something closer to, I guess, the Marjorie Taylor Greene version of America First.

[E]

Yeah, it could go either way. It could definitely go into the Marjorie Taylor Greene version of America first and which the Ted Cruz's of the world can no longer sort of, you know, bend to that. There's also the whole issue with Nick Fuentes and this, the Proud boys, which I would maybe put in the Marjorie Taylor Greene part of America first and the fact that they are in a serious crisis mode right now because they have, you know, they have white nationalism basically infecting their party. Anti Semitism, racism, extreme sexism. I mean, I don't know how you can sell that for so long to a party that relies on a coalition of immigrants that are include, you know, Hispanics. They had record growth. Also, I think they people take for granted the fact that President Trump had such high name ID that he was a celebrity and that he could bring people out, untraditional voters out. I just don't know who that next person is on the right that could lead in the way that he did. A movement that is America first and has all those kind of coalitions together, from the white nationalists to the broader coalition of minorities that came out and voted for him too.

[B]

And whether there is a, you know, fundamental break of trust between those groups that the minority groups that voted for Donald Trump and what has come to pass during this first year of the administration and whether they would support a Republican or white wing party again. And that's an open question. I wonder, Burgess, what you're seeing congressionally? Obviously, Marjorie Taylor Greene was a big part of this fissure and this mutation for what's going to come next. A lot of people had credited her with seeing where the party was going in the way that she was breaking with Donald Trump. But then she abruptly resigns. So what's left of that forward looking attitude or movement in Congress right now?

[F]

I mean, it's still there in the Republican Party. And I was listening to you talk about the Tea Party there for a second. And what's interesting is a lot of those Tea Party folks are still alive. They're still kicking in the Senate, they're still in the House. So when Donald Trump proposes, say $2,000 tariff dividend checks, you have a bunch of fiscal conservatives that are still in Congress, that are still in this governing coalition that say, hell no, we don't want to do that. Even if more populist members like say Josh Hawley want to do that so the Republican Party is kind of this tapestry of the last 20 to 30 years, which includes these MAGA folks, but also includes Tea Party folks and also includes these establishment folks from before that. And so Trump has been able to kind of cobble those folks together, especially for the first year of his presidency. But as we've all kind of noted, his popularity is down a little bit and he doesn't quite have that tight iron grip that he had over his party where he could get someone like RFK Jr confirmed through the Senate.

[B]

Yeah. And I guess that brings us back to what Rick was arguing in the beginning is that Donald Trump, as he sees himself as a lame duck and as he starts to lose power, you have to Rick, you tell me you worry about what he might do next, the move he might make to try to wrestle back control.

[C]

Yeah, Katie, I think that is really something I was trying to get across in this piece is that Donald Trump has repeatedly shown us that if you say the line is right here, don't cross it, he will cross it. And if we take lightly his use.

[D]

Of executive power in the second half of his second term, I think we.

[C]

Will be ill served because he will.

[D]

Come out and do things that the the sort of establishment vision of he could never do X, then he will go and do x times 10. I'm deeply concerned about that, especially on the civil liberties front as we've seen playing out with ice across this country. And I'm concerned about it on the foreign affairs front as well as we're seeing this week, in fact, with this absurd Ukraine deal.

[B]

All right, Rick Wilson, Tara Palmeri, thank you so much. Burgess Everett, appreciate it.

[G]

That was another episode of the Tara Palmieri Show. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you like this show, please rate it, subscribe, follow share it with all of your friends. Please leave comments. If you like my reporting, you can go to tarapalmieri.com that's T A R A P A L M E R I. You can sign up for the Red letter. That's where you can get all of my exclusive reporting and my independent journalism straight to your inbox. It is how you can support my independent journalism and I will keep at it. Thanks to you. I want to thank my producer Eric Abenate. I want to thank Abby Baker who does my research and my social media and and Adam Stewart on the thumbnails. I'll be back again this week. I'm thankful for all of you. I hope you have a great Thanksgiving week and you are able to take it a little slower.