← The Tara Palmeri Show
The Tara Palmeri Show
The Iran War Is Already Hitting the Economy — Why the Worst Is Still Coming
00:42:26
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- [00:01]
A
A mochi moment from Mark, who writes, I just want to thank you for making GLP1s affordable. What would have been over $1,000 a month is just $99 a month with mochi. Money shouldn't be a barrier to healthy weight. Three months in and I have smaller jeans and a bigger wallet. You're the best. Thanks, Mark. I'm Mayra Amit, founder of Mochi Health. To find your mochi moment, visit joinmochi.com Mark is a Mochi member, compensated for his story. Welcome back to the Tara Palmieri show and the Red Letter. We have Robert Wolf back on the show with us. Crazy times. And he is here to break it all down for us. Explain this economic situation. He's going to talk policy, Wall Street. I'm going to talk politics, Washington scoop, what everyone's talking about. And also, how does this war in Iran and the uncertainty around it impact you, your daily life, your pocketbook, the rest of the world, as you all know, because Robert's been on the show before, he is a former chairman and CEO of UBS Bank. He was also an economic advisor to Obama and a member of his Economic Economic Recovery Advisory Board. And he's advised a number of politicians and even President Trump at one point. Right. So you have.
- [01:20]
B
Not President Trump, but he could use me.
- [01:22]
A
I thought that you did advise President
- [01:24]
B
Trump take golf with him.
- [01:25]
A
Oh, you played well that you could have, you know, whispered a few sweet nothings in his ears. But he has advised Mayor Mandani. So Robert is the go to guy for politicians. We're like, what are we doing right now? What's going on in the world? So breaking news. Holy ceasefire. According to President Trump, just as the national gas average is $4.02, we allegedly have a ceasefire.
- [01:54]
B
Yeah, Tara, great to be back. What a difference a few weeks makes. Last time, I think I came right after the unemployment number, which was one of the worst jobs reports in years. And it showed we've had no new job gains, I think, since May of 2025. So, and we were just beginning talking about the war and what it could mean and when it would end. And, you know, I thought a good way for us to start chatting is since, you know, he announced he's doing a, a national discussion tonight and we're not really sure what he's going to say. But, you know, the way I kind of think about it, if you looked at the President's campaign, it was America first. It was about lowering prices at the pumpkin, lowering prices at the kitchen table. But if you really think about the past 12 months, and it's been exactly 12 months. A year ago, he announced Liberation Day, I think, when on, on Fox, I called it the Red Wedding of the biggest unforced error in Washington in my 40 years of politics, because tariffs was executed in just about the worst possible way. And now, 12 months later, his next biggest thing is the Iran war. And I know we're going to talk about it, but the one thing I wanted to say is neither of those bookends reduce pricing.
- [03:28]
A
Yeah.
- [03:28]
B
All it does is make affordability front and center. It's not a hoax. And people are feeling the pain.
- [03:37]
A
Yeah, you're right. I mean, he was basically elected on two things, affordability and immigration. Both things I would not say he's really handled well at all. If anything, I think people are feeling even worse, which explains why some of the poll numbers right now are pretty brutal for President Trump. And we're going to put them up. This is from cnn comparing his poll numbers just in the past few months, like back from January to 2026 to March. So his approval, the overall approval of his, you know, handling of as presidency, he's gone to 35% down from. Doesn't say the exact number in January, but you can see the light purple.
- [04:23]
B
Yeah.
- [04:23]
A
It's handling the economy. Everything's going down. Economic conditions in our U.S. in the U.S. are poor. 77% agree. That could do. 77% of Americans agree on anything, really.
- [04:38]
B
It's a horrible number. I mean, listen, I don't take polls all that seriously because they change like the wind. But your, your guests would be interested in this. A few years back, I had lunch with Steve Bannon, and one of the things he said is the two things you have to really look at is, is the favorability of the president. Is he or is he not underwater? And then the other biggest thing is, is the country in the right or wrong direction?
- [05:12]
A
Right.
- [05:13]
B
Those are the two polls that, in my opinion, really kind of tell you what the pulse of the nation feels like. And right now, you know, it's all about the economy and, and it doesn't feel good right now. And I know we're going to talk domestic policy later on and we're going to focus a little bit about, you know, the war and, and Iran. But, you know, it's clear to me that he is just kind of off his game when it comes to this populist message that he's really run on and you could argue, you know, did an amazing job running on this populous nationalist America first message. But it kind of doesn't feel that way today.
- [06:02]
A
You're listening to this podcast, so I know you've got a curious mind. Here's a helpful fact you may not know yet. Drivers who switch and save with Progressive save over $900 on average. Pop over to progressive.com, answer some questions and you'll get a quick quote with discounts that are easy to come by. In fact, 99% of their auto customers earn at least one discount this. Visit progressive.com and see if you can enjoy a little cash back. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. National average 12 month savings of $946 by new customers surveyed who saved with Progressive between June 2024 and May 2025. Potential savings will vary. So I did get some numbers from the CNN poll. So right now, 69% disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy. 31% approved. Not a great number. Back in January, 61% disapproved and 39% approved. So it slid eight points, you know what I mean, up. Sorry. His approval slid 8 points down. The disapproval slid 8 points up. And in July 25, 40% approved of how he was handling the economy. And in April 2020, 25, 39. So yeah, he's, he's not doing really well. That's underwater.
- [07:22]
B
Not, not surprising. I mean, if you think about the economy, usually what's always front and center is jobs.
- [07:30]
A
Right.
- [07:30]
B
And you and I spoke a lot about it on, on the last podcast on your show a few weeks ago. We're in this, you know, low hire, low fire environment and the job market for young people is brutal. We have a discouraged workforce. We have this question on the impact of AI. You saw Oracle announce, you know, you know, terminations. 30 plus thousand to go on, you know, as others has announced. And then you add the war and I, and you add the war. You have gas prices up, you have, you know, food prices up. And, and we just have this unknown environment. And I know we're going to talk about the stock market, but the stock market's not a gauge for the economy.
- [08:18]
A
Right.
- [08:18]
B
You know, I think something like 80% of the stock market's owned by the top 15 wealthiest, you know, people in the world. So this idea that, in the country, so this idea that, you know, although, you know, although Attorney General Bondi made the 50,000 number the most important day that she was testifying, it's not the most important number when it comes to, you know, kitchen table issues.
- [08:47]
A
Yeah. She disturbingly mentioned that while Being asked about the Epstein files and the fact that she had not called the survivors behind her to the DOJ to testify, that was her disgusting, out of touch, gross response.
- [09:04]
B
I would love tariff, if you don't mind. If we can just go back to where you started about tonight's speech and we talk a little about Iran and kind of update, you know, your, your audience about really what's going on and why is this such an incredible impact for the economy?
- [09:26]
A
Well, yeah, I mean, there are a number of reasons why. By the way, I'm not holding my breath on this ceasefire until we hear from Iran whether this is actually true or not, which is kind of crazy that we have to wait on the Ayatollah for confirmation. It feels like President Trump is just playing with the markets. It's like a pinball machine. And he timed this announcement right before the markets opened. And I just feel like he's Taco Tuesdaying. I know it's Wednesday, but yesterday was Taco Tuesday. And that was when he announced that we were pulling out of the war, even though the straight overuse was not going to be controlled by the US and he seemed to be fine with it. He said, let the rest of the world deal with that, buy our oil, you know, Europe, if you, if you can't deal. But I, I don't.
- [10:14]
B
Is it just me manipulation? I mean, listen, obviously the market rallied on, on his true social posts, but, you know, if you kind of look at the comments over the, the last, you know, few days, you know, we obliterated him, you know, the, the war is going to end today. He talks, you know, if they don't open up, the straight arm moves, we're going to blast them back to the Stone Age. I don't even understand. Yesterday he's talking about his new ballroom and Sharpie pens and, you know, Iran only has BB guns to be people. But so we're all over the place. But the one, the one thing I would say is it feels to me that this president does not want to stay in this war because he sees what it's doing to the market, he sees what it's doing to oil prices. But the idea that he's going to pass the buck to our allies, whether it's in the Middle east, in Europe and say, hey, you go deal with it, when for the most part, it was started by us in Israel seems crazy to me because it doesn't mean it's over just because, you know, the US decides to withdraw because, you know, you were mentioning, what is it what will Iran's comeback be to our proposal? They want sovereignty over the straight of Hormuz. Yeah, they're talking about the tolling that you and I were chatting about, like what Egypt does in the Suez Canal. And if you don't think that's going to impact energy prices and diesel prices and be passed on the consumer, you're nuts. Because they're talking about a tolling of a couple million bucks a ship. That's like 20% per barrel.
- [12:02]
A
Yeah, that's insane. Just for a feel of how this is impacting the global economy, especially in Asia, right, where they really rely on Iran for their fuel. In Thailand, news anchors have ditched their jackets on air as the government called on the public to reduce their use of air conditioning to save energy. In the Philippines, government workers are operating on a four day work week. In Vietnam, officials have urged employers to allow people to work from home. They're thinking of all different ways to save energy. In Japan, they're telling them to take shorter showers. This is crazy. I mean, the rest of the world is really suffering. We haven't really felt it yet, but I'm sure at some point we're going to feel it when it comes to commodities, I mean, like, how does this work? What does the ripple look like? Is it housing, is it food, is it tech? Like, when do we feel it? Because Trump just said all I have to do is leave for oil prices to come down. Do we believe that?
- [12:58]
B
So, a lot to unpack here. First, I want to touch some of the stuff you talked about. Asia and Thailand. And actually today they announced that they're, you know, ending some of their, their fishery shipping, which is one of their most important trade they have. You know, just to go back, recall that 80% of all energy that goes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia, Southeast Asia, China, Japan. And so yes, it doesn't hit us as directly, but we know energy is a global commodity. So one, the idea that they can't get their oil is brutal. And then number two, the idea that they can't plan for the pricing of oil changes everything. I would say the second part is also coming through. The straight of Hormuz that you talked about are things like helium and fertilizer. You know, so the fertilizer aspect is huge for farmers. So the idea that these farmers aren't sure about their own supply chains is another reason where people are nervous about grocery prices and future supply. And then the third thing I would say is forget just about the Asia aspect. Our allies, France, and, and the UK take the UK for example. The UK imports about 40% of their energy. A lot of it they were getting from Russia. They stopped during the Ukraine war getting it from Russia. So where do they get it? They get it from the Middle East. Now they can't get deliver deliveries from the Middle east because that choke point, the straight out who moves is not allowing it. So they're seeing much higher pricing than us, much different type of inflation. So the impact on our friends in Pan Europe, absolutely impactful. So the idea that the President turns around and says, go do it yourself, really what he's doing is saying, hey, we need your navy ships. We, we want you part of this military, this, this military war that, that we've started. And they're saying, not right now.
- [15:07]
A
Yeah, he's basically putting a chokehold on them. Right. He's like, either you help me or I'm, I'm not, you know, I'm not doing anything to help you. Here's a Jesus Acosta asking how long before all of this drives the United States into a recession?
- [15:25]
B
So listen, I don't know if you heard our. My last conversation with Tara, I was, and I've changed my mind. But at that point I thought the Fed should be lowering rates because I was more nervous about the, the, what I was calling the job session. But I was no more nervous about jobs and a Glo and a recession in the US Than I was about inflation. And at that point I said that although a lot of people are talking about stagflation, I would give it less than a 10% possibility. If this war continues, that possibility of stagflation is going to be higher and we'll talk about that. I don't think there's a recession around the corner, but certainly I think that growth is slow. The job market is slow, but the consumer still is somewhat strong. We don't know the impact. Remember oil prices today? Yes, it went from $3 to $4 for gas and it went from $4 to five and a half dollars in diesel. And that's an impact and it will be passed through. But that's not like at 150, $200 a barrel, where we're talking about $6 gas and we're talking about, you know, various types of, you know, embargoes and banning. So one, it still feels like business as usual. Although I would tell you the glass feels half empty, not half full.
- [16:55]
A
Hmm, interesting. Okay. And Jennifer Anderson says, will this supply shock lead to a higher inflation spiral than Covid supply Shocks. It's a good question.
- [17:07]
B
It is a real good question. I don't think so. I think Covid is a, it was a one in a lifetime happening. The entire world shut down. This is very different. This is talking about 20% of energy, certainly for the US where we're energy independent and we have the ability to look at fracking differently and lng, we're going to be able to withstand it more than the rest of the global economy, certainly within Europe. But there's no question that it will cause inflation. And, and one of the real reasons that cause inflation and, and is I mentioned diesel prices. And, and most people, well, why are we talking about diesel prices? Well, all of deliveries, all of trucking, everyone uses diesel. So if you don't think that those prices of shipping and supply and logistics are going to be passed on, you're nuts. So my opinion, between the tariff craziness and if we have this, these energy shocks, yes, it's going to impact, you know, our, our kitchen table costs. And so, you know, I think you're going to see it's passed on to the consumer. I think it's going to feel inflationary. That's why people are talking about stagflation. I'm probably at the lower end than many economists, but it certainly feels like it's has a possibility of rearing the ugliest of ugly heads.
- [18:35]
A
So how soon are we gonna feel this? Days? Weeks?
- [18:40]
B
I mean, I think people are feeling it, you know, I think, you know, you know, listen, whether you like or don't like President Trump, he is a master marketer and he's the one that made it clear during the campaign that the biggest billboards we have is when you see prices in the grocery store and prices the gas pump. We have never seen a move of gas go from three to four dollars that quick. And this is the President that has bragged, hey, it's $1.99. So it's clear to me that he's going to have to do something, okay. To bring the economy front and center. And something I thought was interesting, I mentioned it yesterday on my Fox hit. The GOP took out this big campaign ad where they're going to start talking a lot about the big beautiful bill. I don't think it's big. I don't think it's beautiful. It's certainly big. But the tax bill. But they're talking, Tara, about the no tax on tips and the no tax on overtime, which I think are both good policies. On the flip side, you have the Democrats talking about, you are going to take away health care to pay for the military war, the 200 billion. So those are the two bookends. I would tell you. In my opinion, the Democratic narrative will resonate more than the Republican narrative on that. And we've seen it. I mean, what's happened the last. I think in the last 27 elections this year, that there has been a flip. 100% have been a flip red to blue for, for local elections. And so it feels to me, I don't like to predict on polls, but it feels to me there's a chance for this type of blue wave unless President Trump goes back to his. It's all about the economy.
- [20:40]
A
Yeah. It's interesting. Even in his own district, his legislator, there she is, it is now a Democrat. They flipped from red to blue in the Mar Lago district. But you're, you're absolutely right. Whenever I talk to Republicans about it, obviously they're sort of a bit more blase. They're like, well, we redistricted so much that we don't expect it to be the kind of bloodbath that you saw in 2010, because they've pretty much, you know, locked it up. But I think, I think everybody is aware that the Democrats will take back the House. It's just a matter of whether they can win the Senate. And I think if you see them win the Senate, then that is truly a blue wave.
- [21:21]
B
Yeah, I think the Senate's going to be tough. I agree that that's, you know, I'm probably being kind to the Democrats. It's a flip of a coin, I think. The House feels to me that it's a question whether we win by 10 seats or 30 seats. But, you know, you were talking about the economy and the impact. Goldman S. Goldman Sachs today has estimated that the Trump war, as sometimes, you know, they're calling it, could cost 10,000 jobs per month between now and the end of the year. So, as I mentioned before, Tara, we're already in a situation. We have had no new job gains since May of 2025.
- [22:04]
A
Wow.
- [22:05]
B
We had recently had job losses. We have a participation rate in the labor market that's somewhat lower than it has been. And now we're talking about the impact of the war causing more job losses. And we're not even talking about the impact of AI Yeah.
- [22:23]
A
So if, if this war continues for the next six months, what does the US Economy look like?
- [22:30]
B
So we, we really never talk about this much. But I think people, I think people underestimate. Listen, I'M a Salomon Brothers guy from the 80s. So if you looked at my Twitter, my pin tweet is me at Solomon Brothers. Salman Brothers was the king of bonds. I'm a bond guy. And I always think that the, the treasury rates are the most powerful rate there is in the market. It's more powerful than the stock market, energy prices, anything. It's the most powerful if we see a real backup in treasury rates. So today, just to give everyone idea, the 10 year treasury about a month ago was below 4%. It went up as high as 450. Then you had President Trump the last few days put out all these announcements, the war is over and it's around 430. We had mortgage rates at that time go actually under 6% which for homeowners, for people looking to buy and those who are looking to sell and then get another mortgage, that's a critical level. Under 6%. They're now back to six and a half even creaking, creeping up.
- [23:48]
A
Yeah.
- [23:48]
B
So if, if we're in an inflationary environment and we have a backup of treasury rates, a few things happen. One, the cost for the government's much higher because we have 30 plus trillion in debt. So that's going to weigh us down.
- [24:05]
A
Yeah.
- [24:05]
B
Number two, credit cards are based off of treasury rates. That's going to impact everyone in this country and then certainly, you know, mortgage rates. So the answer is, you know, I, I think that it would, we would be in a very difficult situation. I, I think recession and stagflation would become front and center. You, you were talking when we were, before we got on the phone that Larry Fink Talked about from BlackRock, the largest money manager in the world. I think you were mentioning that he's predicting there's a possibility of 150 a barrel. There's a huge difference between 100 a barrel where it is today and 150 a barrel. Like we're talking night and day differences
- [24:53]
A
and that could cause a recession.
- [24:55]
B
It could easily cause a recession and it could easily move towards stagflation.
- [25:00]
A
Yeah. And I think that's the other thing that like I've been thinking about because Trump is saying the war will be over in two weeks and that always seems to be his deadline. Right. Two weeks, two weeks till, you know, we're going to extend the tariffs or two weeks until we pick up the tariffs. Like he's always got the two week extension. And so he's going to probably do his Oval Office address tonight at 9pm and say that we will be done in two weeks. At least that's what Caroline Levitt and Pete Hegseth and everyone else has been channeling. Right. But let's face it, can we really pull out of this war in two weeks? Probably not. Is this just going to be increments of two weeks and two weeks and two weeks? And by doing that, you're kind of messing with the, not only the American psyche, but the markets because they're kind of contingent on that.
- [25:44]
B
You know, the one thing I would say, this is the most transactional president in my lifetime. He has his pulse on the stock market more than any president I've ever been around. And what's important to him may be different than what's important, you know, to, you know, you know, to hard working Americans because they're not as invested in the stock market. And so when he makes a comment like when we get out of the war, gas prices are going right down, you know, to me that could be fact or fiction. We don't know what's going to happen with the straight or moves when we leave. My view would be the President, you know, I give them incredible accolades for killing the Ayatollah. You know, so let me just start with that. The Ayatollah was a horrible person. And what they've been doing for decades with respect to extreme terrorism, you know, we could, we could, there's been books and we could continue those books. You know what, what I would say is if that was the goal and the idea of making sure that they can't, that we've obliterated, obliterated their, their nuclear capability, which supposedly we did most of that before then, then my guess is he's going to say, you know, we're, we're coming home. Middle east and Europe, you, you decide how you take it forward in Asia because it impacts you more. We did what we need to do. You know, there's no longer a nuclear proliferation, you know, in Iran. In Iran, you know, they have somewhat regime change that we think we can live with. Listen, I think he's trying to play the Venezuela game all over again. And some comments he makes about Cuba all over again. Iran is not those places. Yeah, Iran has almost a hundred million people, right. And it's just, it's not Venezuela. So I, I don't think that comparison holds water also.
- [27:44]
A
Okay. We basically gifted them the Strait of Hormuz. Okay. If the rest of the global economy crashes, that obviously impacts us as well. And sorry, I lost my train of thought, but lost my train of Thought. But, yeah, I mean, like, we're basically pulling out. Oh, Bolton said this to me on my, on the show last week. And we know John Bolton is a hawk, and he's been desperate to go into Iran for year, decades, really, claiming that they could, you know, take us out with a nuclear weapon. He said on the show that they did not have nuclear capabilities. Okay, he said they didn't. And, but he claimed that they could just buy a nuclear program from North Korea overnight for already 72 hours. The nuclear program could be shipped from North Korea to Iran. Question is, do you have intercontinental ballistic missiles? North Korea can't even get to Japan. Iran could maybe hit Europe maybe, but they have. No, they're not at the place where they could get those, those nukes over to us. I mean, it's all been a farce from this, from the start. Even Tulsi Gabbard, his own DNI, testified that it would take 10 years for them to have a nuclear program. So basically, we have to strengthen Iran's hand, we strengthen Russia's hand. And, you know, now are they going to be trading oil on the one, like, what's going on right now?
- [29:08]
B
Yeah, yeah, there's a, there's, there's a lot there. Certainly. I, I have a lot of disagreements with John Bolton's perspective. It's good to hear that he thought they don't have any nuclear capability left in Iran. Certainly the President has intimated that, although it feels like one of the things we're trying to make sure is that they don't have any capability, even though we supposedly already obliterated it. So, you know, my view. Is it.
- [29:38]
A
It.
- [29:41]
B
Listen, here, here's what's. I think one of the saddest things is if you closed your eyes and said, we started a war, and in the first month, those who have done the best economically, obviously maybe not from a war perspective. And those who have done the worst, Russia has done by far the best. Iran has done the second best.
- [30:10]
A
Yeah.
- [30:10]
B
Our allies in the Middle east have done the worst. Go think of what's going on in Qatar and in the Emirates and, and our friends in Asia are being negatively impacted. Ex China. Okay. Because by the way, Russia can deliver to China and Iran can deliver to China. So the idea that we have given sanction relief to Russia and Iran, and you could almost argue that hardworking Americans have had no economic relief and our allies have had no economic relief, you couldn't write that story. No one would believe it. But that's kind of where we are today. Which is why I think the President has to reverse this completely.
- [30:59]
A
How can you reverse it? But by the way, before we get into that, SC3317 asks Celtics, and we're gonna have to get to that by the end of the show because that's a real question for a lot of people.
- [31:09]
B
Champions, City of champions.
- [31:11]
A
I'll go through like, you're provoking. You are.
- [31:13]
B
Literally.
- [31:14]
A
You're gonna start a war on this show. Okay. But, yeah, so, yeah, how do you reverse this? And then we have another. Very astute.
- [31:24]
B
I mean, there are ways to reverse, to be clear. One, you back off. Two, you may allow Iran to do some tolling. Okay. It doesn't truly impact us as much because, you know, we don't, we don't, we don't use most of that oil. Number number three. Let me just finish number number three. You help uk you know, we'll supply them more energy, we'll supply them more lng. I mean, the only thing you can do is try to figure out how you're going to work with Iran in the new normal. I mean, it's not going to end where. I hate to say there was a, There was an article today, Robert, how
- [32:04]
A
do you ever work with Iran? We've never been able to work with Iran and suddenly we're going to be able to work with them on economic measures.
- [32:11]
B
Well, I mean, I would say that there was a time, you know, with the Iran nuclear deal, that we were somewhat working with them and we could, we could argue whether that was good or bad. I was a supporter of that. But what you've seen recently, to your point, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the uae, they don't want to wrap this up. They're nervous as shit about Iran rebuilding quickly, being more emboldened. So, yes, our allies don't want to wrap this up. But the point I'm trying to make, what the President can do in reversing what he's done, is he. He can put it more on our allies, too. I. E. Like he said, go get your own oil. And if that means there's a tolling, so be it.
- [32:53]
A
And that's not going to impact us at all.
- [32:55]
B
It will, but it will impact us less. It will impact us less. So because that means a straight or Hormuz is open. And really, you know, yes, 20% of energy goes through that. And if there's a tolling, it's maybe a buck a barrel for, for maybe, you know, call it 5 to 10 million barrels a day. We, we can. That can be absorbed and you think
- [33:18]
A
that they will only charge a buck a barrel. You don't think that they're going to go nuts with this charge?
- [33:24]
B
No, no, I, I think it's like $2 million a ship. And, and based on how the larger ships carry amount of oil it comes to like a buck a barrel. Listen, I don't have all the math down of the ships that go through the straight or moves but what I know, I am a Wharton guy so I know math better than names but you know, I think it comes to like a buck a barrel but remember we're not talking about you know and then you could have at that point Saudi increase.
- [33:56]
A
They're getting richer and richer which is exactly what our sanctions were supposed to, we were supposed to be trying to.
- [34:03]
B
I think that's the craziest thing. I think if there's one thing that's the craziest thing about this call is that Russia and Iran has sanction relief. And I'm going to reiterate this but our hard working, but hard working Americans are feeling it at the pocketbook and our allies are feeling it. It makes no sense to me that this is the outcome in the first month.
- [34:28]
A
Yeah, I mean we've lost the war essentially because you know it's all about who, who, what is your resolve like what keeps you.
- [34:40]
B
I, I, I am not sure I would agree with we've lost the war. I know a lot of people believe that. I think if the war ended today and there and we got when we have true knowledge there's no nuclear capability and the AOL is not there, you know and, and just said they could
- [35:00]
A
buy nukes from North Korea and if they get from letting people through the orus straight then there's, we, there's no way to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
- [35:11]
B
I think I, I, I don't know if that I listen, I'm not going to challenge Bolton on, on, on policy when it comes to, I mean I did advise the Pentagon for the last two years and had national security clearance prior to Trump coming in. Listen, there's no question that, you know I use the acronym Crinket. You know China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and extreme terrorism. Those people all holding hands. So would I be surprised that North Korea will help Iran and Russia will help Iran and, and, and they're all making more money and they're going to figure out how to help each other. No, I wouldn't pass it by any of those devils. That being said, that's not where, listen, I, I, I'm Hoping, and I'm praying that that's not the side we're going down.
- [36:01]
A
Well, I don't think Israel is going to stop just because we stop, and I don't either. And I think this could end in a really horrible way. And I don't even want to say it on the show, but I don't see how. I mean, what do you think next step is?
- [36:17]
B
I think next step is. Well, he's going to listen, he's going to talk tonight. I think he's going to talk that the war is ending soon because he knows that the Americans and the marketplace and the polling will like that. I think he will, you know, take a bow on. We've obliterated them. They have no nuclear capability. We've hurt them every which way. Our ballistic missiles, our air force, you know, we've crushed them. They have no navy. And he's not going to answer the question of then what? Okay, what about the straight of her moves and is it open? He's just going to say that there's no deal until it's open, but we're not going to know what that means to tonight. And the truth is we don't even know who he's dealing with. So, you know, I'm gonna actually check and see. I think it's just gonna be. Tonight's gonna be, you know, where he just kind of tells the country we're in a great situation, never been better. And, and we're gonna be fine, and gas is gonna be down and, you know, listen, this is a president who, you know, he throws a lot of darts and I think he gaslights a lot. But I do think he is going to see, based on the polling, based on where the midterms look like, we're down to six months to go. He's going to have to refocus on the economy. That's clear to me. And go back to his populist messaging.
- [37:41]
A
Okay, before we wrap up, I'm on BBC.com, top of BBC, says Iran denies Trump's claim. Requested ceasefire, calling it false and baseless.
- [37:53]
B
Well, you called it alleged.
- [37:56]
A
I did call it alleged. I was waiting for confirmation from the ayatollah, which is insanity, that we are there. We can't. Like, who do we.
- [38:05]
B
Yeah, it's. It's a shame we don't know fact from fiction.
- [38:11]
A
Its own truth social account so that we can his. Excuse me. Yeah.
- [38:18]
B
Yep, That's. That's disappointing, but somewhat not surprising.
- [38:24]
A
Yeah. On that note, the Celtics are playing Miami Heat tonight. So Again, Celtics. They're back on screen.
- [38:34]
B
Okay, well, I'm a Boston boy. What can I say?
- [38:38]
A
I think more people will probably be watching that game than Trump's address, which,
- [38:42]
B
by the way, I should tell everyone, our families, like the war, the roses, they're all New York fans. So yeah, yeah, yeah, it's me versus everyone.
- [38:50]
A
I will say I like I reported for the Red Letter, which you guys should all go to, and subscribe@tara palmary.com a few weeks ago that Republicans really were getting antsy. They wanted Trump to sell the war, and they felt like an Oval Office address would be the obviously easiest way to do it. Right. Since this happened in the dead of night in March. We had no idea really that this was coming. Just kind of reports and soft launching. But, you know, they, that he needed to do an Oval Office address. It's day 30, I think that we are into the war at this point, and he's finally doing it. And we'll have to see if he's actually able to sell the war that he claims is ending in a few weeks. And I think a lot's riding on this Oval Office address because clearly I think he's lost. I, I think he's, he's lost the trust of the people. And like, what do you have when you don't have that, especially in wartime? Have you ever seen anything so volatile and unpredictable, or is this just typical wartime?
- [39:50]
B
I think, like I said, this is the most transactional president that I've ever been around. You know, he's on true social or interviewing each and every day. Again, it's hard for me to follow. You know, I would say, as Steve Bannon said, you know, we're going to flood the zone and, and change to wherever course we need to change. I've never seen someone flood the zone. Like I said yesterday, he said, Iran only has BB guns. Tell that to Dubai who, yeah, just got a tanker hit. Tell that to the Qataris. You know, he said we obliterated them. But, you know, today he says, you know, we going to blast them like there's no tomorrow. I, I, I don't know. I can't figure it out. I'm not trying to figure it out because you just don't know. I'm just hoping that we get the troops home. I'm not hawkish and I hope we reverse course.
- [40:47]
A
Yeah. Well, thank you again, Robert, and thank you everyone else who tuned in. I hope you learned a lot. I certainly did. Fingers crossed that this all ends in a peaceful way. And you know, I always appreciate everyone who's who has, has tuned in. Of course, subscribe. If you're watching this on substack, just hit that little subscribe button. Same for the red letter. And of course, if you become a
- [41:14]
B
paid subscriber, I hope to come back on in a few weeks. We can keep this going.
- [41:19]
A
This is a regular thing guys. So you know, send me mail, send, send, text at us, tweet at us, tell us what you want to talk about next week. We've got a lot of people right now, hundreds of people on substack and YouTube. So we appreciate you joining us for noon lunch and hopefully the news will be better next week. Thanks Jesus. Who said great interview. Thank you, Robert.
- [41:42]
B
Thank you. Have a great weekend everyone.
- [41:45]
A
Bye.
- [41:49]
C
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