The Math Behind Every Successful Revolution

Summary

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The Tara Palmeri Show — Episode Summary

Episode Title: The Math Behind Every Successful Revolution
Date: July 21, 2026
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: Julia Anguin, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author of "On Courage: How to Be a Dissident in the Age of Fear"

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Overview

In this episode, Tara Palmeri speaks with investigative journalist and author Julia Anguin about the real mechanisms that foster resistance against authoritarianism. Drawing from Anguin’s research and her recent book, they explore the structures, tactics, and psychology that allow everyday people to become effective dissidents. The conversation is rich in practical advice, hope, and case studies—from whistleblowers in the U.S. to international anti-corruption movements—and centers on the core thesis: collective, nonviolent action really works, and even a small share of the population can drive transformative change.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Power of Refusing to Comply

• Nonviolent resistance is twice as effective as violent resistance. The book demonstrates how collective, peaceful refusal to participate in authoritarian or unjust projects can effectively “jam the gears” of power.
  Quote: “When you say, no, I won’t ignore it...that is when you're doing resistance right, you make it impossible for the authoritarian project to do what it wants to do.” — Julia Anguin [01:25]
• Any violence by protesters is quickly exploited to criminalize the entire movement—a dynamic seen in many historical and modern regimes.
• Key Tactic: Engage in litigation, protest, boycotts, unionizing, and striking to build mass, nonviolent opposition.

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2. How Modern Authoritarianism Operates

• Unlike historical dictatorships, today's authoritarianism often masquerades as democracy. It involves the hollowing out of democratic institutions for the financial gain of a corrupt ruling class.
  Quote: “It’s the slow destruction of institutions... in service to the authoritarian’s lawlessness and corruption.” — Julia Anguin [03:26]
• Autocratic playbooks: controlling courts, manipulating media, targeting dissidents through economic and legal means (audits, lawsuits, deplatforming).
• Quiet compliance across institutions, often motivated by economic incentives (e.g., advertising dollars) and fear of losing access to power.
  Quote: “Institutions themselves are just essentially amoral…they’re always going to align with power.” — Julia Anguin [06:27]

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3. Protecting Yourself and Building Community

• Ordinary citizens need to prepare practical defenses if they choose to dissent, such as having legal counsel, a supportive community, and being mindful to not give authorities any easy pretense for harassment.
• Political “home”: Most important protections come from organizing within a trusted community, sharing resources, and planning for worst-case scenarios.
  Quote: "Mentally what you need to think about...what will we do if we’re arrested?" — Julia Anguin [08:49]

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4. Obstacles Unique to American Protest

• D.C.'s status as a federal district limits typical protest strategies (e.g., a "victory lap" march) due to heavy fortification.
• The increasing presence of troops and militarized policing in Washington is compared to occupied capitals in authoritarian states.
  Quote: “The capital city is occupied by the authoritarians’ forces.” — Julia Anguin [11:53]

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5. The Chilling Effect of Public Lists & Surveillance

• Authoritarian regimes or movements often rely on “unofficial” lists compiled by vigilante or aligned groups (e.g., Canary Mission) to target political opponents or vulnerable groups, creating a climate of fear and deterring dissent.
  Quote: “They outsource the making of the list to these third party anonymous groups and then use those for selective prosecution.” — Julia Anguin [13:41]

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6. What Do Authoritarians Fear Most?

• Mass non-cooperation—whether in strikes, boycotts, or insubordination—terrifies regimes.
• Even partial refusals (e.g., postal workers halting delivery, or military personnel refusing illegal orders) can stall or topple authoritarian initiatives.
  Quote: “They fear us. They fear us all being like, no, not gonna do it.” — Julia Anguin [14:42]

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7. Case Studies: From Budapest to the U.S.

• The fall of Viktor Orbán in Hungary hinged on exposing financial corruption through independent journalism, notably on YouTube and independent outlets, galvanizing public outrage regardless of ideology.
  Quote: “The thing that brings them down...is people are really mad about the leaders enriching themselves at their expense.” — Julia Anguin [19:09]
• Navalny’s anti-corruption movement in Russia drew similar lethal backlash, showing the power—and danger—of following the money.

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8. Blueprint for Protest: Collective Stubbornness

• Nonviolent mass movements succeed by harnessing “collective stubbornness”—persistent, united refusal to comply, often via strikes and boycotts.
  • Examples include effective ICE deportation flight boycotts, and Tesla consumer boycotts that damaged brand image and forced response.
    Quote: “When you’re trying to build a mass movement ... it’s a game of numbers. You need overwhelming force that basically means the authoritarian just can’t kill you all.” — Julia Anguin [31:37]

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9. The “3.5% Rule”: Critical Mass for Revolution

• Scholar Erica Chenoweth’s research shows that only 3.5% of a population, if engaged in sustained, nonviolent action, is historically enough to topple even the most entrenched regimes. Quote: “At 3.5%...very few authoritarian regimes have been able to withstand the power of the people.” — Julia Anguin [35:55]

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10. The Spiritual (Not Just Political) Motivation

• Many dissidents are compelled by deep moral or spiritual conviction—a need to live in truth or protect others, not abstract political ideology.
  Quote: “When you listen to that inner voice, it does tell you what’s right and wrong.” — Julia Anguin [31:18]

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11. The Role of Care and Feminist Leadership

• Much of dissident work, especially from women, is rooted in community care—for example, Sister Marie Frances supporting detainees’ families outside ICE centers or Mayan women in Guatemala seeking justice after atrocities.
• “Dissident” acts often stem from compassion and a refusal to bear witness to cruelty. Quote: “A lot of the work of being a dissident is about caring for your community.” — Julia Anguin [27:39]

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12. The American Backslide

• The U.S. is experiencing a rapid authoritarian slide—democratic indices now rate it below “liberal democracy.” The book deliberately avoids Trump’s name, focusing on enduring structures and global patterns. Quote: “There will be another one...authoritarianism is a movement and a project.” — Julia Anguin [24:10]

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13. Practical Steps for Listeners

• Just start: Help someone affected by authoritarian policies, join or support local protest networks, volunteer in practical ways (even bringing water to demonstrators), and find your "political home."
• Even small acts accumulate in mass pressure—everyone has a role. Quote: “Just do something for someone other than yourself.” — Julia Anguin [45:04]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Institutional Complicity:
  “Institutions themselves are just essentially amoral. An institution exists...to make profit, and so ultimately, they're always going to align with power.”—Julia Anguin [06:27]
• On the Importance of Nonviolence:
  “The data shows that nonviolent movements are twice as effective as violent movements...In a violent fight, you’re going to be outnumbered. But in a nonviolent one, more people will join your side.” — Julia Anguin [31:37]
• On Collective Power:
  “If everyone in the US went on general strike and was like, actually, we're gonna stop working until you stop this.” — Julia Anguin [14:42]
• On the 3.5% rule:
  “At 3.5%...very few authoritarian regimes have been able to withstand the power of the people.” — Julia Anguin [35:55]
• On Spiritual Motivation:
  “They’re more afraid of being judged by their own morals or their higher power than they are of the actual consequences, which can be severe.” — Julia Anguin [29:24]
• On Taking the Small Step:
  “Literally, just go bring some water to some other protesters. Don’t even join the protest. Just help them out a little bit. You know, just do something.” — Julia Anguin [46:04]

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Timed Segment Highlights

• [01:04–02:35] — The math of nonviolent resistance and its effectiveness
• [03:06–04:35] — How modern autocrats erode democratic institutions
• [08:16–10:24] — Practical advice for would-be dissidents: legal, personal, and community protection
• [13:41–14:27] — The chilling effect of “the lists”—outsourcing intimidation
• [17:33–21:10] — Hungary, Russia, and international lessons on corruption cutting through ideology
• [31:18–32:55] — The spiritual compulsion of dissent
• [35:55–37:07] — 3.5% of the population as the revolution threshold
• [45:04–46:04] — Final advice: Start with caring for those impacted nearby

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Final Takeaway

This episode deconstructs the overwhelming feeling of political powerlessness and offers practical, evidence-based hope. Julia Anguin’s findings—drawn from international examples, data, and first-person interviews—make clear that resistance does not require heroism or violence, but instead careful preparation, mass refusal, and solidarity rooted in care and conscience. Even small, well-chosen actions add up. As Palmeri and Anguin both stress: the numbers are on the side of ordinary people, but collective stubbornness and sustained, nonviolent effort are key.

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Further Resources:

• Julia Anguin’s book: On Courage: How to Be a Dissident in the Age of Fear
• Tara Palmeri’s newsletter: The Red Letter (Substack)
• Organizations mentioned: Indivisible, Direct 36 (Hungary), anti-ICE protest networks

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For more context, search relevant timestamps above or reach out to The Tara Palmeri Show on its listed channels and platforms.

Transcript

[Tara]

Monday.com AI agents took over my work

[Julia Anguin]

and I absolutely love it.

[Tara]

Chasing deadlines, writing status reports, updating stakeholders. Agents handle the daily grind.

[Julia Anguin]

Now I stay in the loop only when it matters.

[Tara]

Create your own AI agent. In minutes on Monday.com we all see the headlines, the corruption, the power grabs, and it feels unstoppable. But my guest today says we're actually stronger than we think. If you feel like the system is rigged and the power is shifting away from the people, you aren't alone. My guest today, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Julia Anguin, author of the book on courage, how to be a Dissident in the Age of Fear, has spent years studying the regular people who actually stopped the unstoppable. Julia, I have been obsessed with your book because it moves past the doom scrolling to actual proven ways people can take back power. And you make a pretty strong claim that the resistance is stronger than we think. Can you prove that to us?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah. Thanks for having me here, Tara. I really, I feel like I wrote this book as therapy for myself to basically try to prove that there's hope in the world. And I came out of it like I feel like I'm now a really annoying like hope truther and I can find hope in anything. And but I will say that like what I learned is that the way you stop authoritarianism is you refuse to comply, right? Like the collectively society is like, no, you're telling us that we should ignore the deportations and our neighbors being snatched off the street and we should ignore the corruption and the lawlessness. And when you say, no, I won't ignore it. I'm going to fight it on all fronts, whatever tools I have available, whether it's litigation, protests, trust, strikes, boycotts. That is when you're doing resistance right, you make it impossible for the authoritarian project to do what it wants to do, which is to steal your money and your rights. And the thing is that the US we are doing the one of the most important things right, which is we are doing it nonviolently, the resistance, nonviolent resistance from large groups of people is twice as effective as any sort of violent resistance. And any little bit of violence allows the regime to tar the opponents as all criminals. And so we are doing the right things. We need to do more of it. We need to keep the pressure on. But like, there have been a lot of successes.

[Tara]

Yeah, it's, it is amazing when you think about that. I do often feel like though, when you see the way that President Trump has used various tools, they are tools that Autocrats have used throughout history, surveillance disruption. I really would love for you to break all of that down. Like, what do autocrats do? You know, they defy court orders. Right? I mean, how do they control the referees? Can you explain the system that is designed to propel these, these autocrats?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I mean, it's, it's confusing, right? Because we have a mental model in our head of like Stalin, Hitler, like sort of these regimes that were so oppressive and police states and gulags, et cetera. And so when we look at what authoritarianism is like today, it's confusing because it actually masquerades as democracy. What it is is the hollowing out of all the democratic institutions in service to the authoritarian's lawlessness and corruption. And just I want to say that again, it's always about stealing your money, like in the end of the day, like that's what they're in it for. And so just always remember that that's what it comes down to at the end. Right. But it can look confusing. Like the headlines are about weird legal rulings and litigation and you're like, I don't know, do I, Do I need to care about this OMB rule that everyone's really upset about? Like, it's, it's confusing for the average person to be like, this is what authoritarianism looks like. But it is, it's the, it's the slow destruction of institutions that hold power to account. And so what we all have to do is make sure those institutions hold. Hold up, that we fight to defend them. Like the book opens with a whistleblower at the Housing and Urban Development office who was told not to, that his whole office of enforcing civil rights laws was supposed to move on to other topics. And they were like, no, we refuse. Right. And then they got fired. And they're litigating and they're raising public consciousness, but they're like not going to comply with it.

[Tara]

Yeah, no, I love the story too, about how he packed up his, his desk, assuming that he would then have to pack up his desk again. And he just sort of went to work in the assumption that as he spoke out in the, in the press to the media, that he would eventually lose his job and as he became a whistleblower and expose more and more about what was happening. But you know, you talk about how these autocrats control courts, they control the media. And I really talk about that so much. I mean, it is so much a part of the reason why I am an independent journalist. I've heard this from friends who have stayed in mainstream outlets, some of which I've worked for in the past, that, like, if you're not cozy with the Trump administration, like, you've lost your, you've lost your status in the news organizations, and it's clear that they are willing to go after anyone who, you know, attacks them. And you're seeing the subpoenas in the New York Times just for writing about, like, the fact that the Qatar Force One didn't have security that was adequate for a president to fly home. I mean, it is, it feels like we are in a time where. And it's quiet compliance, like, it's not out loud. It's just like, oh, that person there, you don't see them quite as much or, you know.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah.

[Tara]

I also think it has a lot to do with advertising dollars, too, where a lot of the corporations, they don't want to mess with the companies, they don't want to mess with the White House. So then, you know, they might not want to advertise on an outlet that, that they perceive as being anti Trump. And if that outlet elevates a reporter who is critical of the administration, as all reporters should be, I mean, other. Anything other than that is marketing. Right. According to Oscar Wilde, you know, you just see that sort of, you see the retribution happen in, like, really small, kind of tiny ways. Like the small compliance.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah. I mean, the thing to remember is that institutions themselves are just essentially amoral.

[Tara]

Right?

[Julia Anguin]

Like, they're, they're not moral entities. An institution exists, especially in a capitalist society, to make profit or, you know, and so ultimately, they're always going to align with power. You see this in every authoritarian regime. Right. The media often caves, the institutional media. And that's why it's really important to have a fearless, independent media. Right. Like you, someone who's supported by their readers because that actually is a funding source that they can't take away from you. Right. You're not at the behest of a donor or a corporation that needs to have the administration's favor for some rule they want passed or whatever. And so it's really important to support independent, fearless media. And I know, I'm saying that too, somebody who's already converted to this. But one thing to know about this kind of authoritarianism that we have these days, which is the hollowing out of democratic institutions, is it relies so heavily on capturing the media. Because if you can convince people that they shouldn't worry about all the things that are happening, like, don't worry about it. Oh, yeah. So what if they're arresting people for touching water in the reflecting pool, that those people were criminals. Right. Like, don't worry about all those things. If the media goes along with all of those narratives, then the people who aren't paying that much attention are like, oh, okay, it's fine. It's just democracy. You know, one side wins, the other side wins, etc and doesn't realize the stakes. Right. With the stakes are super high. Which is like you will get less and less power and agency over your life. Right. You will be always in fear of having your rights taken away, your job taken away by a capricious ruler who wants total loyalty. Right. And that's not what we, what we all signed up for with America.

[Tara]

Totally. And we're getting a lot of really good questions coming in. Woody Khan, he says President Trump is often obsessed with retribution. How can ordinary citizens who resist him prepare countermeasures for Trump's targeted resentments? I actually found that fascinating, that part of your book where you're like, okay, this is how you can get ready to be audited. This is how you can make sure you have a lawyer on speed dial. Can you sort of explain to people who are ordinary citizens who decide that they're done doom scrolling, scrolling and they're going to do something, like, how do they prepare for.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I mean, you have to go in clear eyed with the idea that there's always going to be, they're going to try to do something. And so the most important thing is to kind of be honest with yourself about like how to build your defenses. So the most important defense actually is having a community of people, having a lawyer and an advisor, a political strategist, people, you know, who are in different professions joining what we call a political home, where you all kind of talk together and strategize, like, what will we do if we're arrested, like in really repressive regimes. Like there's actually like a guy who we quote, he's written like a whole checklist, like what your spouse should do when you're arrested and thrown into the gulag. Right. And so like we're not at that stage yet. Okay. And I hope we don't get there, but there. But that is sort of mentally what you need to think about. Right. Like, even before writing this book, I had to talk with my husband, who's an immigrant, a citizen, but an immigrant, and, and talk about like, okay, like we're going to be a little higher on the like, wanted list and are we both okay with that? And then what are the like things that we have in place in terms of our social network. And then the other thing that's really important is just to not be stupid. So which sounds dumb but like to don't also try to cheat on your taxes. Like don't also be speeding through lights, don't try to drive an unregistered car because like the lower hanging fruit that can always get you on something like that. It's best to try to comply on most of the things and keep your sort of civil resistance to the actual work that's mission driven.

[Tara]

Yeah. Grog505 says if we organized a constant presence in D.C. demanding reforms and Citizens United reform, SCOTUS and legalized bribery, we could stage a maiden like revolution where we negotiate, appreciate change. It's really interesting that you bring that up and thank you for the support. Grog, by the way, you're keeping this channel going. You write in the book that DC needs to be a state. And I, when I listen, when I read what Grog is saying, you there are limitations to really having a sustained presence in D.C. can you explain that?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah. We have like a structural disadvantage in this country which is that D.C. d.C. Is a federal district. So it's really run by the federal government. And that's really unusual. I don't know of another country that has that. And that when you look at how other authoritarian regimes fall, they basically what happens is the citizens rise up, they make it really difficult for the regime to operate, they stop complying, they do boycotts, they do strikes, they hold the institutions, hold the line. But in the end, what almost always happens is every streams into the Capitol for a gigantic march which a lot of the organizers call like the victory lap. Like you kind of don't do that until you fully have the momentum behind you. And we aren't going to be able to do that as easily when you have it federalized. Right. Already. I was in D.C. last week for a book tour and I could not believe there's 5,000 troops on the ground there. It already feels like a militarily occupied city. It has a curfew for youth. Like we're at a point where if it was another country we would say like, oh, the capital city is occupied by the authoritarians forces. Right. And so you can tell that they're preparing to defend against any sort of big popular movement.

[Tara]

Right, right. They've been doing that for a while. You know, I. In the New Yorker, it's actually, I'm not sure if that's the piece that inspired the Book. But you wrote a book. Yeah. The piece is called how to Be a Dissident, and I highly recommend you read it. In addition to the book, which goes really into depth, you write that this is the time of lists, deep state, media exile, all of it. Like, can you explain to people the significance of the lists?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I mean, this is where there's a real weirdness to the way the lists operate in the US And I'll use the deportations of students as the beginning of this. So we. In the very beginning, when Trump came into office, one of the first things he started to do was to go after pro Palestinian activists on campus. And when that policy of ideological deportations was challenged in court and eventually was knocked down by the courts as unconstitutional, what came out was they were using a list from a website called Canary Mission, which was a kind of independent, anonymous list. Nobody really knows who owns the site. And they just put up lists and pictures of people's names who they think are pro Palestinian activists. And then the administration just went through there and, like, found the ones used that. And there's similar lists that are put together in D.C. about, like, there were all these lists of. Of government employees who are dei, which was a. Basically just a list of, like, black government employees. And. And then those people, strangely, were the ones starting to get terminated. So what? What? There's a book called Vigilante Nation, which really makes the argument that the way that the kind of oppression occurs in the current regime is they a little bit outsource the making of the list to these third party anonymous groups and then use those for selective prosecution. Right. And the goal there is to scare everybody into compliance because they think, oh, I don't want to get on the list.

[Tara]

Yeah. It's calling people out and then creating a fear system. That makes sense.

[Julia Anguin]

Exactly. Because fear is cheap. Right. Like, they want everyone to be scared so that no one acts. But we all act. There are more of us than them. Like, way more.

[Tara]

Which leads me to a question from Benjamin. He said, what do authoritarians fear the most? And I think that is a really good question.

[Julia Anguin]

They fear us. They fear us all being like, no, not gonna do it. Yeah. Like, I mean, what if everyone in the US Went on general strike and was like, actually, we're gonna stop working until you stop this.

[Tara]

All of the U.S. postal officers were like, nah, no. Amazon packages are delivered.

[Ad Host]

No.

[Julia Anguin]

And also, like, here's the thing they really fear. They fear the military not following their orders. Like, what if in the military, everyone was like, this isn't illegal war, this is war crimes. But bombing people's, you know, bridges and water plants, we're not going to participate. Right. Like that is what they fear and that is a possibility. Right. Like there are already people who have quit different agencies, including the Pentagon, over their objection to the policies.

[Tara]

I mean, military coups are as old as time.

[Julia Anguin]

Yes, exactly. And I'm not rooting for a coup, but I am saying that, like, no one should comply with illegal and immoral orders.

[Tara]

Right. I do want to ask you about. We're talking about the US Right now. Like, we are supposed to be the beacon of democracy. Yeah. I've been to North Korea before, believe it or not. Yes. I stayed in Kim Jong Un's guest house when Mike Pompeo went there. And it was quite eye opening for me. It was like nothing I've ever seen. And I'm sure you've visited authoritarian states as well. I, I was in shock. It was next level. People marched in the streets in civilian uniform. They literally went up to statues of the leaders, Kim Jong Un, his father and his grandfather, and they just bow. They did these ritualistic bowing and then they would leave. Everything looked like a set. It was like the Truman Show. Nothing was real behind it. It was to present the appearance of wealth in the city of Pyongyang, but everything was not real. And it was all brutalist, which is not my favorite type of architecture, frankly. But yes, it was quite dystopian. I wrote about it at ABC News where I was a White House correspondent covering it. But how far along are we with North Korea being over there and the US and maybe like Russia being here, China? Where are we in that?

[Julia Anguin]

I mean, I think most people sort of use Hungary as the closest comparison where until very recently, when he was thrown out after 16 years of authoritarian rule, Viktor Orban was like running Hungary under the same type of hollowing out of democratic institutions and undermining free and fair elections, undermining the press, turning the press into an organ of state propaganda. So that's the playbook that I think very explicitly the MAGA project has used as their inspiration. They talk about it Openly.

[Tara]

Oh, yeah.

[Julia Anguin]

J.D.

[Tara]

vance is like, I love Orban. It's like, wait, what? So does Tucker. Tucker loves him.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, they all feel like this is their dream and they're trying to make it happen. You know, like it's. It's worth noting that these aren't the best. These dudes aren't so great at execution. So, like, we aren't as far along. Maybe on the way that they would want it to be. Right? Because Orban, like, managed to hollow out. He made all state media, like, into propaganda. He actually sort of basically destroyed the university system. It's going to take longer to get that done in the US but they're trying.

[Tara]

Yeah, no, for sure. Actually, I love that you brought this up. So Julia and I are friends, and if you've been following this channel, we were in Italy together, we're in Perugia, where we spoke about the importance of independent journalism and media. And she was a moderator on a channel about how independent media is the resistance right now. I mean, it always has been throughout time. Newsletters are not a new thing. If you want to read the red letter, by the way, you can go to the QR code and you can see all my reporting. But this is actually how people got around authoritarian regimes. They started their own newsletter. They used art, they used journalism, they used music. And when I told you, when we spoke and I was asking for advice about this channel and the direction I wanted to go in, which I feel like is a, you know, anti corruption show, you said to me, you explained that Warbonne was essentially able. He was essentially brought down by YouTube. Can you tell our office, our audience about this?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I mean, it's kind of crazy, but, like, the thing that is worth remembering is authoritarians, like, are stealing your money. And also that's the thing that brings them down because people are mad, right? They may not be so mad about the abstract rights or like even maybe about the groups that are being targeted, which they, they should be mad about, but they are really mad about the leaders enriching themselves and their families at their own expense. Right? So Navalny was leading an anti corruption group in Russia, right? That's why they poisoned him and killed him, Right? Anti Corruption was the channel of. On YouTube. Direct 36 was one of the last remaining Hungarian independent outlets because he, Orban, made it basically illegal for them to get any funding or advertising. So these people were just hanging on by thread. But Direct 36 managed to keep their channel going and they made these episodes and documentaries about Orban and his children and how rich they were, right? Just literally like flying drones, houses and like showing how they were just living it up while the standard of living for the average Hungarian was going down, down, down. Right? And that is what galvanized people. That plus, you know, the, the, the insurgent right candidate against Orban was kind of a Liz Cheney equivalent. Like she was a defector from the, from the movement who had a Certain credibility was able to pull in other people who wanted to defect from that movement as well and wasn't maybe as was able to build a big tent coalition, which maybe someone more on the left would have had a harder time doing. But the common. But really the corruption was the selling point, right? That was the selling point of the movement because not everyone agreed on, like, exactly how liberal or right wing we should be. But they all agreed this guy is stealing our money and that's bullshit. We don't want that.

[Tara]

Yes, Barrio Fabulous says Julia is 100% corrupt. It is correct. Not corrupt.

[Julia Anguin]

I'm not corrupt.

[Tara]

No, she isn't. She's amazing. It is the corruption that brings them down. But we are seeing oligarchs basically bowing to Trump when they go to the White House. As Judy Kinson points out,

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[Tara]

It is amazing. You know, I want to ask you in the audience, we're talking about the age of Fear. What is your biggest concern about where the country is headed? Drop it in the chat. Julia will answer those questions. As always, you can support that kind of journalism here. You know, independent, fearless journalism that holds power to account. Become a member. Go to the YouTube page and of course, check out Julia's book. It's really a great read. I started it on Friday and I think I texted you the next morning and I was like, julia, I'm sobbing. This is such a beautiful book. It is. Profiles encourage, but like the advanced version. Oh, everyday people, you know, not heroes, but Every. They are heroes, but everyday people and how they are, you know, bearing testimony, they're doing the hard things and, you know, and. And how. And it really does provide a. I guess it kind of provides a blueprint for future. For others who want to move forward. I did notice, though, that you don't write about President Trump very much in the book. In. In, you know, the forward you do in. In a sort of simulation.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah.

[Tara]

Of what could happen if a leader decided to plow through the courts, take over everything by executive rule, and you realize, oh, wow, the executive has a lot of power, but you don't really write about him as much. Is that because this is the prequel for the next book, you had to rush it out as you saw it was happening, or you felt like it was just a stronger story to show what's actually happening abroad and that this is actually very normal and Americans shouldn't think that we are exceptional in any way.

[Julia Anguin]

I mean, it's a little bit of all of the above. I mean, we deliberately made a decision not to use Trump's name in the book. So his name is never mentioned. Not once we refer to the administration, the movement.

[Tara]

Oh, I guess. Yeah, you're right. You don't.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, we actually just sort of. We don't declare it, but we sort of subtly just decided. And I think the reason was that we wanted to. We want this book to be universal. Like, authoritarianism is a global scourge. It's on the rise around the world. We're in an actual global kind of terrible epidemic of authoritarianism. It's spreading everywhere. And liberal democracy is the least common that it's been in, like, over 60 years. And so the US just lost its state status, according to VDEM Institute, which tracks Democratic metrics as a liberal democracy this year. So. Wow. We. So we wanted it to be universal, and we also wanted it to not be about him. Right. Because the thing is, there will be another one right there. There will be. Once you have an authoritarian movement like Chavez in Venezuela, then Maduro comes in and takes over that man. So authoritarianism is a movement and a project, and there are a lot of people who have bought into this, using this current guy as their figurehead, but they will not go away if he goes away. And we wanted the focus to be on the people, on the people you mentioned. These are not people you've ever heard of. These are people you haven't heard of. But they're doing really courageous things, and we wanted the focus to be on them. And what made Them do it. Because the idea of the book is to invite you all to do it, right? To have you look at this book and have a buffet menu of options. Like, I don't feel like doing that thing that seems annoying, but this other thing that this guy's doing seems like something I could do. And to provide people with just like models for like what Descent looks like. It's much more than just standing on the street with a sign. You know, there's so many ways you can do it.

[Tara]

Right. Some of the profiles that I was really moved by, I mean, I was moved by obviously women because I'm a woman myself and I see some of the things that they did and I find it. One of them was Sister Marie Frances at the ICE Detention center in Newark, the infamous Delaney Detention center, where people are going through hunger strikes because the situation there is so dire. The food is inedible. There's no. Sometimes they go into spells of freezing to heat. It is inhumane. And then they, the guards, they create these processes in which their children or their family members, they find it almost impossible to enter the. The facility to see their loved ones like deciding like, oh, you have an open toe shoe today. You can't come in like that. Arbitrary and ridiculous. Sister Marie, Marie Francis, who has a tick tock account, which is amazing because I went to Catholic school. So it's like to think of a nun with a tick tock account.

[Julia Anguin]

I know, it's incredible, right?

[Tara]

So, yeah, I love for you to tell her story. And also the Mayan women in Guatemala who survived La Valencia and obviously they experienced brutal rape and the death of their children, which often, like rape is obviously an act of war and happens frequently. But they were strong and stood and told and they. And they stood and they testified to what they experienced afterwards. And that kind of reminds me of what we are going through in terms of the Epstein files and the strength that I've seen from those survivors being willing to bear testimony to what they went through, which is, you know, takes a whole lot another level of courage. So, yeah, if you don't mind, or you could, or you could. Since I've told you all about those two, maybe there are another. There is another dissident that you found that you were like, yes, that's my dissident.

[Julia Anguin]

Well, there's so many. I think one thing that you tapped into, which is also something we don't really explicitly say in the book, but is an undercurrent, is there's a little bit of like a feminist angle to this book. Because the truth is, when you think about famous dissidents, you think of Nelson Mandela and Gandhi and Navalny, and these are like brave, heroic men doing brave things and on the world stage. And then when we started doing our interviews, what we really found was that a lot of the work of being a dissident is about caring for your community. Right. The sister Francois is like, she's caring for those people outside of the detention center. She's providing water, she's filming. So to document the. The cruelty that's being inflicted on them. She's. She's. This is an act of caring. Right? This is part of her work, her mission. And we saw that over and over again. Right. The Guatemalan women who are holding the dictator to account for his crimes against them, they are caring for each other. That's their. That's their way of caring. And I think we talk a lot about. Doesn't work. Like, it has to be this heroic stuff. And it is heroic, but it's motivated by the fact that you care about another human being. And so it doesn't always get described that way. And I was really insistent on, like, using those stories that people don't always think of as dissident work, but they are.

[Tara]

Yeah, exactly. And they're risking so much, and it's their time, it's their money, and they're. They're doing it because they just can't sit on the couch anymore. And it's incredible.

[Julia Anguin]

They can't sit and watch this happen to other people they want. They won't be able to live with themselves, like everyone told us. Like, I'm afraid. I'm totally afraid, but I'm more afraid of being the kind of person who would let that go, who would turn away from that. Right. And who would condone that cruelty. Right. And so they're more afraid of being judged by their own morals or their higher power than they are of the actual consequences, which are. Which can be severe.

[Tara]

Right. Barrio Fabulous says, once again, thank you, Julia, for putting the spotlight where it belongs. So there's a lot of love in this chat. I do really love that you write about this as something spiritual rather than political. Can you explain that shift from risk to greater good?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I mean, it came through in so many of our interviews. One thing that was interesting about this project is Ami and I, my co author, we. We are not authoritarian experts. I'm like a tech investigative reporter. I met him because he's a tech. He was a tech policy advisor in the White House. And we knew each other through tech circles. And we let the stories come. Like the lessons arise from the stories. And so many people told us that they were driven either by their faith and institutional faith or just like by a spiritual feeling that like this is the kind of person they wanted to be in the world. Right. They wanted to live their values. And, and we realized that that was the motivation that really drove people. And we didn't know going in that we were going to end up there. And I have to say I was a little uncomfortable with it as like a not very spiritual person, but I was like by the end I was like, yes, I'm going to start becoming more spiritual. But it really was like a beautiful thing to realize that there's that people. When you listen to that inner voice, it does tell you what's right and wrong. Like if you listen to it, it's there, right?

[Ad Host]

It is.

[Tara]

I mean when you are taking a huge risk, when you're about to jump off the building or you're going, you know, you. And you don't know if you can fly, that's a spiritual thing, you know.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah.

[Tara]

What else is it? So you only write about non violent protests.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah.

[Tara]

Why? Is that moral or is it purely strategic?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I mean, look, I don't take a position on the morality. I think that there are some conflicts, right. Where people have tried non violence for quite some time and for found it to be unsuccessful and they moved to violence. Right. And that is I, I'm not going to judge those people. But the data shows that nonviolent movements are twice as effective as violent movements. And there's a very simple reason for that, which is that when you're trying to build a mass movement to bring down an authoritarian regime, it's a game of numbers. You are trying to get the most people. You need to have overwhelming force that basically. I hate to say it this way, but basically means the authoritarian just can't kill you all. That sounds terrible, but that is really it. You have overwhelming numbers. They obviously are going to always have the overwhelming weapons. So in a violent fight you're going to be outnumbered. But in a. If you come with nonviolence, more people will join your side because they, it. It's the more appealing message. Like we're the good ones here. If you look at what happened in Minneapolis, right. What happened was the state over. They by. By killing two innocent protesters, they lost the narrative war. People turned against them. They had to leave and retreat because that was really bad marketing for them. Right. And it was really good Marketing for the nonviolent protesters.

[Tara]

It makes them look like radicals.

[Julia Anguin]

Exactly. And so nonviolence is just strategically proven to be much more effective. And so that's why we focus on those movements.

[Tara]

You use the phrase collective stubbornness. Yeah, it's incredible. I feel like it's just a great phrase. How does that actually look like in practice?

[Julia Anguin]

So collective stubbornness comes from the scholar, movement scholar, Maria Stefan. And she says that sort of like the fundamental thing that comes with not complying with an authoritarian regime is a sense of collective stubbornness. And sort of the most canonical examples of that are strikes and boycotts. Right. Where a bunch of people come together and say, no, I will not donate my money or my labor to the, to this regime.

[Tara]

Right.

[Julia Anguin]

And you know, in France, obviously they're really practice at this. Like strikes every five minutes. Us, I think that is a muscle we're still building, but there's been some pretty effective ones. The, the boycott of Avelo Airlines, which was the contract airline for ICE deportation flights. There was boycotts and protests against that airline for months and months and months. And they finally canceled their ICE contract under pressure. So those help. Right? The boycotts of Tesla brought their sales down. It brought their brand rating from top 10 in the world to like the bottom of the barrel. And it I think probably also contributed to Elon Musk leaving government to go focus on the brand and resuscitating the brand. And so those kinds of efforts do play out and they do make a difference. And though those are the kinds of things that are like ways that you collectively share this, this opposition to the regime because it's hard to do it as a single person, right. You need a bunch of people to do it together.

[Tara]

It does sound a little bit like money talks, you know what I mean? But you're withholding of resources, of time. You're on a strike. You're not working. That's, that's a resource. That's a time and money thing. You're, you're boycotting. So, and as much as they're trying to steal your money, if you withhold it by doing these actions, you're kind of playing, you're, you're taking back power.

[Julia Anguin]

And even the ICE detention, the volunteers outside the ICE detention center, they're also collective stubbornness because the project of those ICE detention centers is to make those people's lives so miserable that they self deport. Because the reality is they don't really have legal, the legal reasons to truly deport all those people. They've a lot of Them, there was no question criminal history, there was no reason that they were, they were complying with their immigration proceedings, et cetera. And so really they just want to make those people's lives difficult enough that they self deport. So the volunteers collectively are like, no, we're not going to let you make it that terrible. We're going to make it as good as we possibly can. Which within their limited abilities. Right. Like they can't go into the detention center, but they do their best to support the families on the outside.

[Tara]

Okay, so what percentage of a population is actually necessary to form a viable opposition?

[Julia Anguin]

Well, the data that is very famous from Erica Chenoweth at Harvard says that 3 1/2% of the population needs to be involved in a mass movement. And if at that level, very few authoritarian regimes have been able to withstand the, the power of the people. And so it's a, it's not like a magic number channel with always says look, if you just have a one day protest of three and a half percent of the people, that's not enough. It has to be a sustained movement. It has to involve a lot of non cooperation. But by the time you get to something that big at three and a half percent, you are at a level where there is a real history of authoritarian regimes crumbling. So that is a really good goal. It's not necessarily a guaranteed win, but it's something that everyone should be shooting for.

[Tara]

It feels like a very small percentage of our population. Am I wrong to think that it is.

[Julia Anguin]

It is a small percentage, but it turns out that like you know, not even barely anyone here votes either. So like getting any kind of participation is. And getting people to really commit to something like that.

[Tara]

Yeah.

[Julia Anguin]

Is, is hard.

[Tara]

Right. So in your book you Write about the 1960s Civil rights activists and how they practice sit ins in church basement. I thought that was really beautiful scene. I mean they literally practiced the harassment that they would face.

[Ad Host]

Yeah.

[Tara]

The shouting in their face, the food thrown at them, the possible violence. And they practiced how to sit there stoically and look for forward and not engage violently.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah.

[Tara]

Do you see that happening today?

[Julia Anguin]

I would say that the activists I talk to, I think they all are a little bit hungering for more of that than we have right now. When you realize that nonviolence is like the kind of definitional way to get to success by practicing disciplined nonviolence. It is hard to do in the moment when somebody grabs you. It's hard. You're like your, your, your reflex is to, to hit back. Right. And so in the civil rights movement, they had a really strong practice of preparing for that. We, I don't know. There's some amount that's happening like that, but it's not as extensive as it probably should be.

[Tara]

Yeah. Okay. How have the tactics of President Trump changed the math for a regular person trying to be a dissident? He is a second term president. So does that change the thinking and the methods for people who want to do that?

[Julia Anguin]

Well, I think what's happened between first and second term is that a. He clearly declared his authoritarian intentions during the election. Even he ran on it. He was like, I want to be a dictator. Right. And, and so we already kind of had an inkling that that's what he was doing. Whereas I think first round it was like it wasn't as clear. And so what that means is that the tactics have to change. Right. He's also doing incredible hollowing out of democratic institutions in ways that he didn't do the first time around. And so it's really important to not let that go unimpeded because if you do, you could get all the way down the rabbit hole towards North Korea. Right. Like we're not. Thank God.

[Tara]

Right, Right.

[Julia Anguin]

It's, it's, it's shocking when you see, and you talk to people in countries even like Russia, where they're like, it was really fast. Right. Between the time when it felt like it was a democracy with some flaws to the time now where it feels like an incredibly repressive state. Right. And so it's, it's, it's a very dangerous time to be on the, what they call the authoritarian backslide. And we are backsliding faster. A lot of the experts say they haven't seen a backslide this quick. Quick. So we do have to muster all of our effort to stop it every which way we can.

[Tara]

Yeah. It's interesting. I, I certainly didn't think that project 2024 or 2025 was really going to be the blueprint that it ended up becoming. I mean, because he was, he failed in so many ways in the first term. Everything he tried to do, there was a court order that blocked him or, and then there was leaking and then there were people that quit and there was so much chaos that he wasn't even able to take. He really wasn't able to make too many, make too much progress. But that short period of that, those four years in the wilderness, he found his yes people.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah.

[Tara]

And he figured out how to be effective this time around. And I think we all Underestimated that.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, I think that's probably true. And I think. But the one thing I do take heart from is I do feel like people realize it. And even across the political spectrum, even his. Even his supporters, I think, are being quieter, not really going to bat as much. And a lot of people who were on the sidelines maybe hadn't taken a position are like, this is wrong. Like, I'm not into this. Right. I think the one thing that it's. It's important to note that, like, one real characteristic of an authoritarian regime is the constant lies. The. The lies. They want you to believe the lies. Right. And so, like, this whole thing about how we're winning the Iran war, like, it's. It's just. It's such a trope of authoritarianism, and it, I think, rubs people. Like, they start to feel that Orwell feeling. Like, wait, what? You know?

[Tara]

Yeah, I read this in a book

[Julia Anguin]

once, and it didn't go well, Right.

[Tara]

Robot Glue says, I want to know how to take action against ice. They just showed up in my state.

[Julia Anguin]

Oh, boy. Yeah. Well, there's lots of different ways to do that, but I honestly really find that the work of the volunteers who work in front of these detention centers, and they're in every state, there'll be a group that is working and taking care of the families of the detainees. That's a really good way to start. I don't know which state Robot Glue is from, but. But it's a cool name, but I'm sure there's a group that's already existing. And one thing I've just. I. We say in the book a lot is, like, really start simple. Like, just go to the detention center and ask them, what do you need? Can I bring water? Can I bring blankets? Like, what do you. And just do a small thing. And then what you'll find is that as you join a community and start to understand what's needed, you can figure out what your skills are that will really most help.

[Tara]

Yeah. Global information man, he has a qu. He has got a point. He said, I live in Naples, Florida. They make it very difficult to protest. Sheriff Rambosk is a huge advocate for ICE funding. Ooh, yeah.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah. I mean, look, it's still legal to protest in America, and we shouldn't give up that, right? Just because there's some jerk sheriff who's making an mess of it. That said, there's lots of ways to protest, right? Like, what about finding out what the sheriff's wife's business is and boycotting that you know that's true. Right. Maybe she's got a little jewelry store or something.

[Tara]

Don't buy her crochet. Okay. By the way, robot glue says he lives in Delaware.

[Julia Anguin]

Oh, okay. Yeah. Oh, I'm sure there's. I'm sure there's a group there. You can just check almost if there's all sorts of different groups that would do this. You can check with 5051 or Indivisible. Almost all those groups will tell you where the ICE detention center work is happening.

[Tara]

Yeah. What did you make of Trump's speech last week where he tried to cast out on what the election results will be in November, which will most likely be a. I don't think it'll be a shellacking because of gerrymandering and redistricting. I think I'll probably. But I do think there'll be a shift, at least in the House, from Republicans to Democrats. And it feels like he's setting the stage right now to suggest that there's election fraud, much like he did in 2020.

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah. This is straight out of the authoritarian playbook. Right. Which is to cast doubt on elections and jigger the rules to benefit yourself. In Hungary, Orban did this thing where, like, I still can't believe this actually happened. That, like, some people's votes counted twice as many as other people's, like, in the rural areas. And because he knew that's where his base was. And, like, I find this mind boggling, but I could easily imagine all sorts of games like that being proposed and approved by, you know, Republican Senate and a Republican Supreme Court.

[Ad Host]

Yeah.

[Julia Anguin]

And that's the problem is you have these things that look like elections that end up being not actually free and fair.

[Tara]

Okay, what is the best single piece of advice you have learned from the dissidents you profiled? For someone who feels powerless today, I

[Julia Anguin]

think that the way I like to say it is, like, just start caring about someone that you didn't care about before, whether it's an immigrant or a trans person who's being. Whose life is being criminalized in your state or. Or a university under pressure to. To submit to some sort of censorship, or to an independent journalist who's fearlessly trying to do their work, like, Tara,

[Tara]

become a member. Go to the red letter. Hit like, come on.

[Julia Anguin]

We're trying to, but I think that's it. Like, we have to. It's so tempting to be like, no, I'll just hide in my room and I'll keep my head down and that'll Keep me safe. It will not. The world will be worse when you emerge and you will suffer. So you have to do something for someone other than yourself and just expand your mind a little bit. And it doesn't have to be a huge thing. Literally, just go bring some water to some other protesters. Don't even join the protest. Just help them out a little bit. You know, just do something.

[Tara]

It's beautiful advice. Benjamin asked Julia, we're all jealous you got to travel to Europe with Tara. Do you have a fun travel story you'd share? And that made me think of when we walked along Aqueduct.

[Julia Anguin]

Oh, can I tell this story?

[Tara]

Yeah.

[Julia Anguin]

It's insane.

[Ad Host]

Okay.

[Julia Anguin]

This is where I learned about Tara. And I really differ as journalists because we got. We were doing a little, like, audio tour of this ancient medieval city, and it was like, walk along the Roman aqueduct. But the Roman aqueduct had all these signs up for construction and, like, do not pass and, like, red tape and fences. So I thought, oh, we're gonna have to turn around. Oh, no, no, no. Tara just sneaks in through the construction tape, and I have to follow her, and we're crawling across on our hands instructions. And then I thought, this is why she gets all the good stories.

[Tara]

You're, you're the, the data genius.

[Julia Anguin]

You are kind of a nerd reporter. Yes.

[Tara]

But I, I, you know, I, I, I, I cut my teeth at the New York Post, where you have to get into difficult situations and gate crash and knock on doors. So I guess that's where my brain goes, is how do I get in there? But, yeah, we ended up getting out, which was incredible. I'm sorry if I, like, in hindsight, if we fell, that would have been a huge disaster. Like, we were very high up in the city, just, like, crawling on the size of a balance beam, essentially.

[Julia Anguin]

I know. It really was. I was just like. But I was just like, I don't know, because Tara won't respect me if I don't do this. I have to do it.

[Tara]

I respect the hell out of you. Oh, my God. I was. I've been so excited for your book to come out. We obviously, a lot of the topics came up at this. At this Perugia. At this independent journalism festival in Perugia. I'm blanking on the name of it for some reason.

[Julia Anguin]

International journalism festival.

[Tara]

Yeah, international. And these people are so fierce, these international journalist. Such badasses. Like, we had security around us because, like, the mafia was trying to take out some of these investigative journalists for the kind of work that they do exposing corruption in Europe. And it was actually my third time going to this because I used to live in Brussels and I never spoke at it. But Julia invited me to speak as someone that was essentially using independent journalism as a way to, you know, to stop corruption and to highlight stories that matter that unfortunately, the mainstream media isn't paying attention to. But, yeah, it was a really, really wonderful event. And definitely go out, though, and buy Julia's book. It is a beautiful book. The stories are, like. They're extraordinarily touching. And it's an. It doesn't. It's not like a heavy read either. Like, I feel smarter for having read it, and I would have felt dumb for not reading it, but I also don't feel. Feel like it was like a textbook, you know?

[Julia Anguin]

Yeah, we tried to make it, like, easy go down easy. You know what I mean?

[Tara]

Yeah.

[Julia Anguin]

It's just nice stories with, like, interspersed with some, like, lessons and the research from movement scholars. But it's really meant to make you feel as hopeful as. And inspired as we felt doing the reporting.

[Tara]

Yes, exactly. And I know sometimes, like on this show, for example, we talk about all the things that are going wrong, and we don't talk about hope a lot or action. And that's why I thought having Julia on the show was so important, because this is a story of hope. This is a story of action. This is how people turn things around. And they don't have to come from privilege, and they don't have to necessarily even be whistleblowers inside of a department. They can just do small action actions of maybe collective stubbornness or just caring about others. And it's just. It's a really, really cool book and I highly recommend it. So, guys, thank you all for your time. Hit the subscribe button if it's your first time here. Like, share, share, follow, become a member. It's a new program for me. I had them all named, like, on the Record, off the record, on background, deep background. It's named after the various levels of journalism. And that, yeah, obviously on the Record is the highest tier. And you can support this independent journalism doing that. No shadowy funder, just me working for you. Julia is going to try to come up with a. A business model for all of us to survive.

[Julia Anguin]

I'm working on it.

[Tara]

She's working really hard on it right now. But in the meant, we need you. And yeah, thanks again and go out and buy our book. Thanks.

[Julia Anguin]

Thank you so much for having me. This was so fun.

[Tara]

Yeah, it was amazing. Thank you, guys. Bye.

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