Trump’s Backroom Ukraine–Russia Plan: Marco Rubio Cut Out of the Loop with Aaron Parnas

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Tara Palmeri Show

Episode: Trump’s Backroom Ukraine–Russia Plan: Marco Rubio Cut Out of the Loop with Aaron Parnas
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: Aaron Parnas
Date: November 25, 2025

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Overview

In this episode, Tara Palmeri sits down with Aaron Parnas to unpack a whirlwind political week marked by high-profile congressional exits, a secretive Ukraine-Russia peace plan that blindsided Marco Rubio, turmoil within both political parties, and Trump’s latest attempts to rebrand healthcare. They provide insider analysis on power struggles in Congress, foreign policy backchannels, and the quiet formation of a Senate "Fight Club" rebelling against Democratic leadership. The tone is sharp, witty, and unsparing, offering listeners unfiltered insight into the machinations at the top tiers of American power.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Congressional Exodus and Burnout

[03:00 – 06:30]

• Marjorie Taylor Greene’s retirement: Seen as the "canary in the coal mine" for a rash of Republican departures. Kevin McCarthy observes Congress members are burnt out and fearful, not just from political pressures but personal threats.
• Economic Realism: Despite a $175,000 salary, members complain about the cost of dual residences and are enticed by the lucrative possibilities of lobbying post-politics.
• Trump’s Pressure Tactics: GOP reps are weary of the “bullying” from Trump’s team and the looming threat from MAGA-aligned primaries.

Notable Quote:

"They are tired of being bullied by Trump's team. Apparently. Trump's like, I'm not surprised to hear this because they are bullies. I mean, that is what they do."
— Tara Palmeri [03:55]

Aaron Parnas adds:

"I think they kind of see the writing on the wall here that 2026 isn't going to go so well for them... No one wants to serve in the minority, especially someone who's been serving in Congress... for like 10, 20 years." [04:32]

2. Republican Dysfunction & Trump’s Healthcare Fumble

[06:30 – 08:30]

• Legislative Paralysis: House Republicans have accomplished little legislatively—highlighting the collapse of governing autonomy.
• Obamacare Drama: Trump’s clumsy suggestion to slap his name on a healthcare bill (dubbed “Trumpcare” by the hosts) was rebuffed by his own party, reflecting deep GOP aversion to engaging on health policy and his detachment from House realities.

Aaron Parnas on Trump’s Healthcare Plan:

"This health care plan that's been coming in two weeks for 10 years, still not here." [07:21]

3. Democratic “Fight Club” and Leadership Rebellion

[08:30 – 13:00]

• Rise of the Senate 'Fight Club': Progressive Senators (Chris Van Hollen, Tina Smith, Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) are challenging the establishment’s grip on primaries, pushing for bolder anti-corporate, anti-Trump candidates.
• Tension with DSCC: Anger mounts over DSCC interventions in primaries (Michigan and Maine), perceived as undemocratic and favoring centrists.
• Prediction of Leadership Shifts: Aaron predicts Chuck Schumer may not run again, and forecasts new generational leadership from either within the Fight Club or other emerging Senators.

Notable Quote:

"Let the voters decide. Come on. And I think the same thing with internally in the Senate. A lot of people are genuinely just frustrated with the direction of the Senate Democratic Caucus."
— Aaron Parnas [11:01]

Tara Palmeri:

"It is very unusual, though, for a group of sitting senators to wade into contested primaries." [12:01]

4. Ukraine–Russia Deal: Marco Rubio Sidelined

[14:00 – 20:30]

• Backroom Diplomacy: Wall Street Journal reports Marco Rubio was kept out of the loop on a Trump-brokered Ukraine peace plan. Instead, Trump allies like Steve Witkoff and young appointees (such as Dan Driscoll, seen as a J.D. Vance proxy) are running point.
• Rubio vs. Vance: The incident foreshadows a brewing 2028 GOP power battle and deep internal rifts over foreign policy, especially toward Russia.
• Peace Deal Problems: The proposed deal would force Ukraine into ceding land with few security guarantees—neither full NATO nor clear EU integration—and relies on Russian "promises" seen as worthless.
• European Skepticism: Both hosts highlight the challenge of selling this plan to European allies, given their deep-seated concerns about further Russian aggression.

Notable Quotes:

"It’s all a complete clusterfuck. You don’t do diplomacy this way... Putin wants Ukraine, all of it, and he’s not going to stop until he gets all of it."
— Aaron Parnas [16:11]

"I personally think any deal should require Ukraine to at least join the EU and then maybe NATO or at least have Article 5 type guarantees."
— Aaron Parnas [17:58]

"He just wants a peace deal and he wants to get the Nobel Prize. That's all he wants."
— Aaron Parnas [19:30]

5. Elise Stefanik’s Floundering Ambitions

[20:30 – 23:30]

• Losing Out: Elise Stefanik, once promised the UN ambassadorship, is now pivoting to a gubernatorial run in New York after being repeatedly sidelined by Trump. But Trump’s unexpected overtures to progressive Zoran Mamdani undercut her anti-left campaign.
• Consequences: The hosts see her prospects dimming rapidly, doubting she can pose a serious threat to Governor Hochul.

Aaron on the optics:

"I watched it and I was like, that's the end of her campaign right there. Because he just completely undercut her entire Islamophobic rhetoric in one statement." [22:50]

6. Tariffs, Trump’s Economic Achilles Heel

[25:22 – 27:56]

• Supreme Court Tariffs Decision Looms: Aaron expresses concern for the far-reaching economic fallout should the courts rule against Trump’s tariffs.
• Trumponomics Falters: The hosts note the messaging disconnect in both Trump’s and Biden’s economic programs, suggesting that "Trumponomics" is as unpopular as "Bidenomics" among voters.

Aaron:

"I think he loses... we're going to have to pay back billions of dollars... that's going to kill our economy. And I don't think we're ready for it." [25:22]

7. Epstein Files: Tinges of Hope

[28:05 – 29:30]

• Potential for Transparency: Both host and guest see hope in the possible release of more Epstein case files, with Tara noting the survivors she’s spoken to feel optimistic, but remain cautious due to redactions and control by Pam Bondi.

Notable Quote:

"That, to me, is a bright spot...There’s some hope that they're going to get the files. Like that, to me, is a bright spot."
— Aaron Parnas [28:13]

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Notable Quotes by Timestamps

• On Congressional Burnout:
  "They are tired of being bullied by Trump's team. Apparently... that is what they do." – Tara Palmeri [03:55]

• On Republican Electoral Despair:
  "No one wants to serve in the minority, especially someone who's been serving in Congress." – Aaron Parnas [04:32]

• On the Ukraine–Russia Deal:
  "It's all a complete clusterfuck. You don’t do diplomacy this way." – Aaron Parnas [16:11]

• On Trump's Motivation:
  "He just wants a peace deal and he wants to get the Nobel Prize. That's all he wants." – Aaron Parnas [19:30]

• On the Senate ‘Fight Club’ Movement:
  "Let the voters decide. Come on." – Aaron Parnas [11:01]

• On Stefanik’s Campaign Collapse:
  "That's the end of her campaign right there... he just completely undercut her entire Islamophobic rhetoric in one statement." – Aaron Parnas [22:50]

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Important Segments & Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------------|------------------------------------------------| | 03:00–06:30 | Congressional Exits and Internal GOP Angst | | 06:30–08:30 | Trump, Obamacare & Legislative Dysfunction | | 08:30–13:00 | Democratic Senate “Fight Club” | | 14:00–20:30 | Ukraine–Russia Plan, Rubio vs. Vance | | 20:30–23:30 | Elise Stefanik’s Election Troubles | | 25:22–27:56 | Tariffs & Trumponomics | | 28:05–29:30 | Epstein Files: Glimmer of Hope |

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Tone and Style

Witty, unsparing, richly sourced, and conversational in tone. The hosts blend deeply informed analysis with off-the-cuff banter, offering both granular reporting and biting humor throughout.

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Final Thoughts

This episode is a full-throttle tour through America’s messy political news cycle, laying bare both parties' internal strife and the backroom dealings that rarely make headlines. Tara Palmeri and Aaron Parnas deliver keen insights, sharp digs, and a genuine sense of what’s at stake behind the headlines. For listeners seeking insider perspective, this episode is as informative as it is entertaining.

Transcript

[A]

Monday Sidekick the AI agent that knows you and your business, thinks ahead and takes action task at anything seriously. Monday Sidekick AI you'll love to use. Start a free trial today on Monday.com.

[B]

Welcome to the Tara Palmieri Show. Today I dig into a political week so chaotic it practically wrote its own script with Aaron Parnas. And that's right, Marjorie Taylor Greene announced she is retiring from Congress. And now others say they want to leave, too. At least that's what they're saying privately. And Kevin McCarthy, the former speaker of the House, is saying that she's the canary in the coal mine. This is where the House is heading. They're over it. They're tired of being members of Congress. Then there's the foreign policy soap opera, the Ukraine Russia deal that somehow everyone knew about except up Marco Rubio. That's right, the Wall Street Journal has a bombshell report out that he learned about it as of Monday last week, which puts a whole new spin on the Marco Rubio vs. JD Vance power struggle that will bleed out in 2028. Meanwhile, Trump tried to slap his name on Obamacare and Republicans basically laughed him out of the room. Add in the fact that the midterms are moving faster than the White House can spend them and it's been a really rough week for the former president. And it's just just Tuesday. Then we also get into Elise Stefan expl Now that Zohra Mamdani has been retired as the GOP's favorite boogeyman, turns out Trump is still the one tripping her up. And then my favorite plot twist. There's a group of Democratic senators quietly calling themselves the Fight Club, and they are openly rebelling against Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Committee Chairwoman Kristin Gillibrand for their establishment picks. It's an extremely rare, mildly insane and tells you exactly about the left's internal meltdown heading into 2026. It's a lot. Erin Parnas and I unpack all of it now. Right now, it's that time of year again when you start arranging pumpkins on the stoop, try out a new cranberry sauce recipe, and plan out a tablescape that'll outdo last year's. In other words, it's when you break out all your DIY holiday skills. And now ADT is making it easy to DIY your home security, too. Their systems aren't just simple to set up, they also fit within your budget. So get excited for your next project because your peace of mind just went DIY. Visit ADT.com or call 1-800-ADT ASAP. When every second counts, count on ADT. So, Aaron, I wanted to ask you, what is, what do you think about this Marjorie Taylor Greene exit? And do you think there are more to come? Kevin McCarthy said on Fox News, the former speaker of the House, that she's the canary in the coal mine. And I saw some reporting that these members of Congress are just like terrified for their lives essentially because of the death threats which, you know, even as being in this space, it's journalists and influencers, like, you also feel this. You know, if you're public facing, you're talking about politics, like you are essentially under threat now. And also, you know, some of them are complaining about their, their wages. They make $175,000 and it has an increase.

[A]

Pretty good wage.

[B]

It is. But they also have to have two homes, right. If you think about it, because they have to live in their, you know, in their districts and then they have to have another place in D.C. plus the travel back and forth. I don't know how that's covered. It's not a bad life, don't get me wrong. But I think some of them think that, you know, with their connections now, probably all their donor relationships, that they could end up making a lot more money doing something else, like being a lobbyist, I'm sure.

[A]

Oh, for sure.

[B]

And, you know, lobbyists make like seven figures, some of them in, in D.C. so these are the realities. And it looks like, like it's probably more likely to happen on the right than the left because they're tired of being bullied by Trump's team. Apparently. Trump's like, I'm not surprised to hear this because they are bullies. I mean, like, that is what they do. But the political office apparently just tells them you have to vote this way, you have to do this, you have to do that. And if you don't, then our MAGA Inc. Super PAC will take you down, we will primary you. And I mean, yeah, I mean, I.

[A]

Also don't think that they, I think they kind of see the writing on the wall here that 2026 isn't going to go so well for them in a lot of areas. I mean, all the elections have been going bad for Republicans. And I don't think anyone wants to serve in the minority, especially someone who's been serving in Congress, like some of these folks for like 10, 20 years. And now they're going to go into a minority and what not get anything done. So I think that's part of it. I think another part of it, and this isn't like I was. I wasn't surprised Marjorie Taylor Greene left. I was surprised when she left because. Because she kind of like, stuck a knife in Johnson's back by leaving on January 6th versus serving out her full term. But earlier this year, a big resignation that not many people covered was Mark Green out of Tennessee. He's like a super powerful Republican, chairman of some committee. I forget which one. But he left to be an executive at a company to make some money. And I think you're 100% right. I think that they want to make a buck or two. 174,000 is a good salary. You're right. That they have to pay 2. Actually. The congressional rules, they get a per diem of several hundred dollars per day for. Yeah, people don't know.

[B]

It's not a bad gig.

[A]

It's not a bad game.

[B]

Congress pays for their houses.

[A]

Yeah. Congress will pay for one of the houses and pays for all the travel and everything. So it's. It's actually not a bad gig, but they can make a hell of a lot more elsewhere. And so they're leaving. They're leaving.

[B]

Yeah. I think the whole thing about, especially for the right, like, feeling like they have no autonomy anymore in the age of Trump is prob. Probably also part of it. And also it's like, not. This is the dirty little secret. It's easier to be on the defense than to be in charge. And like, they are realizing that they. They can't really do much. I mean, like, what have they passed? What bills have they really passed? I mean, the Epstein bill, they were. They, they.

[A]

But that wasn't them.

[B]

No, that was basically their constituents being like, if you don't do this, you're a bunch of dirt bags and don't come correct. But, yeah, I mean, they're really not passing any bills. Trump put out, you know, his, I guess, way of dealing with the Obamacare subsidies that are about to expire. He says, you know, he basically puts his name on it. Trump's health care cuts, some act, you know, and the entire caucus, his caucus freaks out. And they're just like, no. And here's the thing. Republicans never want to deal with health care. And so for Trump to sort of rebrand Obamacare with his own name on it, which is very amusing, he had to walk it back. This was something they were genuinely excited about. Leaked to Politico for Monday Morning Newsletter. Like, that's a real thing that the White House would do when they think that they think they're being strategic, but clearly they're not even in touch with their own caucus. They just think that they'll like swallow everything that they pushed down.

[A]

So I'm genuinely surprised he didn't call it Trumpcare and just kind of release it because I think if, honestly, if he released what the White House put out, which was a two year extension with some caps on income, I think you get an overwhelming majority of Dems saying, yeah, we'll support it. And I think you'd actually pass it in the House pretty easily because you have some moderate Republicans also saying, hey, this is what my constituents want. But I think it's telling that this health care plan that's been coming in two weeks for 10 years, still not here.

[B]

Yeah, no, I think you're right. I mean, the numbers also show his pollster Tony Fabrizio was doing some polling and it showed if we don't sort out the Obamacare subsidy issue, we're going to get creamed in the midterms.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

But there are a lot of people in really red districts. They are members of the House Freedom Caucus and they're not going to budge on this. But like you said, Jeanne Shaheen, Senator from New Hampshire, who is about to retire, I believe. Yeah, she's retiring Senator. She, yeah, she said that she would come to the table and talk to Trump about this. And I think you're sort of seeing this with a lot of members who have decided, and senators who decided to leave that they're kind of like, you know, what effort, like that's sort of what made the Democrats crumble on the, on the showdown, on the shutdown. It was just like a handful of members who were like, we're not running for reelection and we don't want to deal, we don't want to deal with the holiday mess. And they came to the table and now, you know, Schumer took a beating for that and he continues to take one today. Yeah. Okay. Fight Club. The Fight Club, a group of senators who have dubbed themselves the Fight Club people. Chris Van Hollen, Tina Smith, Connecticut's Chris Murphy, everyone knows Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. So obviously a group of the more progressive senators have decided that they are unhappy with the leadership under Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader, and the DSCC Chair, Kristin Gillibrand. And you know, they're the ones who are really in charge of like, deciding who they put money behind, which candidates they decide to back in the primaries who they think has the best shot of running against a Republican. Right. And often they're going to favor the incumbents, but they're also going to pick more, usually establishment type candidates. And so this group has argued, quote, that the party must embrace candidates willing to challenge entrenched corporate interests, fiercely oppose the Trump administration, and define their own party's orthodoxy. So this is basically like a rage against the Democratic machine, which you always see happening in every party, but more so, I think, in the Democratic Party. A Mochi moment from Sadie, who writes, I'm not crying, you're crying. This is what I said during my first appointment with my physician at Mochi, because I didn't have to convince him I needed a GLP one. He understood and I felt supported, not judged. I came for the weight loss and stayed for the empathy. Thanks, Sadie. I'm Mayra Amith, founder of Mochi Health. To find your mochi moment, visit joinmochi.com Sadie is a Mochi member, compensated for her story.

[A]

I think it's a good thing that this is happening, honestly, in this time. So many people are furious and I get their frustrations, especially with the DSCC this cycle. Let Michigan choose who they want as their next senator. Let Maine choose who they want as their next senator. Don't put your thumb on the scale. Like, I think it rubbed me completely the wrong way when, and this is nothing against Janet Mills, the governor. She's been a good governor for Maine.

[B]

But I knew you were gonna say that.

[A]

Listen, the moment she announced, it was like, dscc, Joint Fundraising Committee. And I'm like, well, this is a primary. She has multiple candidates in the primary. Like, let the voters decide. Come on. And I think the same thing with internally in the Senate. I think that a lot of people are genuinely just frustrated with the direction of the Senate Democratic Caucus. If I had to predict, I don't think Schumer will run for reelection. I don't know that he really can. I don't know that he'd win. And I think that it's time for a new generation of leadership. And whether that comes out of this fight club, someone like Chris Murphy, who I think has been angling either for this or for president or someone like, someone's not in this fight club. Like someone like Brian Shatz, who I know has been angling it, then come on. Like, it's it the best time for an inner party kind of like, fight. Like, this is at a time where the party's not in power. It really is. Because, like, like, who cares what will happen? Like, no one's going to remember this. And at the end of the day. It'll only make the party stronger.

[B]

It is very unusual, though, for a group of sitting senators to wade into contested primaries. So it's.

[A]

I'm curious, who leaked that to the Times. Which one of those senators?

[B]

I mean, I'm sure they want it out there.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I think that this is a way to actually make their pressure campaign happen. I bet they all did. I mean, true, this is. This is what they want, but. Yeah. More headaches for Schumer. Who, you think he's not going to run again? I can't imagine. I don't think. I mean, imagine him going out as minority leader and I don't think. I mean, I hate, like, for everyone who's hoping that they're going to win the senate in. In 2026. I don't think he's taking back. I just don't think the numbers are there.

[A]

I don't. I don't think Democrats have a shot to win the Senate in 2026 because that would require them to win a state like Iowa and Texas. And that's like, that. I mean, let's be realistic here. Like, could it happen? Anything's possible. Pigs can fly. But, like, I think it's more realistic that we're in, like, a 50. 50. 51. 50. Like. Or 51. 49 split. I think, like, Schumer runs. AOC might primary him. Letitia James might primary him.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I mean, it's not. Andrew Cuomo might primary him.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But I know.

[B]

I think the people have spoken. Andrew Cuomo, go away.

[A]

Yeah. Apparently. I don't know if you saw his email yesterday that he sent out to supporters, but it looks like he's running again for something.

[B]

Oh, yeah. Something like maybe Upper west side. Even though he lives in his daughter's apartment in Sutton Place.

[A]

Correct.

[B]

Really Lives in White Plains. Lesbianists. Like, come on.

[A]

Correct.

[B]

You go take your Ford Bronco back to Albany. Okay.

[A]

Is that an OJ Reference?

[B]

Right. It's too much. Just like, you lost, nobody wants you back in public life. You just don't want your arbitrary. To be disgraced former governor. Like, you don't want to start that way.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Here we are.

[B]

Well, what else shall we discuss? Ukraine, Russia deal, Which, you know, for many had Andy Borowitz on the show yesterday, and he said it was basically just Duolingo's Google Translate Russia. And then they basically hand it off to Marco Rubio. And according to the Wall Street Journal, he only found out about the peace plan last Monday. Okay, that's the Secretary of State nfc. I think he runs, like, doesn't he run the archives too now? But the point is he was completely cut off from. It was like Steve Witkoff, who is Trump's developer friend, you know, doing all of this. And, and now he's in Europe, in Switzerland, trying to get the Europeans, who literally have a border with Russia, to agree with this deal and Ukraine, in which they would have to give up a substantial amount of their land without really much in terms of security guarantees, like, certainly not joining NATO. But I do find it interesting in terms of, like, the internal politics, how it sort of pit Marco Rubio, who's always been a Russia hawk, against David Gee, who's made it very clear he has very little love for Ukraine. The way that he treated Vladimir Zelinsky in the, in the Oval Office. And, you know, a lot of people that I speak to have like a dream of, you know, J.D. marco, 20, 28 ticket. I don't see that. I don't see Marco getting on a ticket with JD I think they both have their own egos and they'll run against each other. They'll primarily each other. And then, I mean, this is again, a splitting of the Republican Party. But I just. How do you.

[A]

And you know who's home right now? Pete Hegseth. He. They didn't even send him to any of this. Like, your secretary of defense isn't there, but the secretary of Army's over there negotiating on behalf of the Pentagon. Like, that's kind of crazy to me. Like, why wouldn't he.

[B]

38 years old, this guy, Dan Driscoll, he went to Yale. J.D. vance. So consider him an extension of J.D. vance.

[A]

Yeah, I honestly, I think this whole situation is someone needs to get fired for it, in my opinion. Just because, like, how do you have a secretary of state privately telling Republican and Democratic senators that, hey, this is Russia's plan, Then publicly he's saying, no, no, this is America's plan. Ukraine and all European allies saying, hold up, we didn't negotiate, we didn't contribute to this. State Department saying Ukraine contributed to this. The media saying that they have a deal when half of the, when Russia hasn't agreed to anything. It's just, it's all a complete clip clusterfuck. And it's been happening now for nine months because you don't do diplomacy this way. And I think people need to recognize, and I think the Trump administration is slowly recognizing that Putin wants Ukraine, all of it, and he's not going to stop until he gets all of it. So ultimately it's going to be like, well, Ukraine will, will probably have to give up some territory, unfortunately. But. And then, and then what? Like, what happens in three years when Putin says, you know what? I want more, let's go on more, because NATO guarantees are pretty much off the table in this deal. Ukraine's army is limited to a certain amount in this deal, so it's setting Ukraine up for failure in a lot of ways.

[B]

And, like, do we really think that Putin is going to accept anything that.

[A]

No.

[B]

Also, even if he does, there's no his. He doesn't stick with his word. Like, the paper is useless. Like, you might as well not even sign it. And he's, he's actually put a lot into this war. He's a lot, A lot of men have died, and it's been a long, expensive war for him.

[A]

Yeah, no, it's, it's been, it's very. I mean, it's, it. At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter to him in terms of, like, he can continue fighting forever because, like, he has such a power grip on Russia that, like, he's not going anywhere.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

So, I don't know. I really struggle with any quote, unquote deal that gives up any part of Ukraine. I, I personally think any deal should require Ukraine to at least join the EU and then maybe NATO or at least have Article 5 type guarantees so that Russia can't go back in because Putin doesn't want a war with America. But I, I don't think Trump will ever, will ever agree to something like that.

[B]

I just don't think they have the economy to join the, like, the eu. I, I used to cover the EU as in Brussels, and they just don't have the development or economy. And I don't think the EU wants to take on a war. I mean, that's like a huge burden for them. And they already have their far right instigators within their member states.

[A]

Me, too.

[B]

I covered Brexit, Marine Le Pen in France. The rise of the far right is a real thing. So I think if they brought on Ukraine, that would cause more separatists to call for leaving the eu, which is a very delicate, you know, multinational organization now. More like including, including them in a NATO light partnership. Yeah, Yeah, I could see that, like.

[A]

Article 5 guarantees you're not officially part of NATO, but if Russia attacks you, then we'll step up and we'll support you type of thing.

[B]

Right, but that would mean they'd have to do that right now because literally bombs are falling on the. On Kiev as we speak. It's crazy.

[A]

Yeah. Literally. Which I don't think Trump will ever agree to. I don't think. And I, I don't think. I think his base would revolt over it. Truthfully. A lot of the America first folks would revolt over it. He just wants a peace deal and he want to get the Nobel Prize. That's all he wants. And this is kind of the last thing that's preventing him from getting the Nobel Prize. But, like, even if he were to somehow get a deal done, I still don't think he gets the Nobel Prize. And I think he's pissed off about it.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. It is all about the Nobel Peace Prize. All of these peace Jones. He's really in, like, legacy mode and lame duck mode all at the same time. It's. He's doing what you do at the. The last two years in the first two years. Correct. Oh, wait, we haven't even gotten to a year yet. Yeah.

[A]

So it's felt like it.

[B]

Which always brings me back to his health. And I'm like, is he getting some sort of sign that he's not going to make it through the whole term?

[A]

Well, he got an mri, but it was the most perfect MRI doctors have ever seen. The best test results. Right.

[B]

So, yeah, exactly. Perfect. I didn't even know you could ace the mri. But yeah, let's go into. Poor Elise Stefanik just keeps getting pushed around. We talk about multinational organizations. She was supposed to be ambassador to the un Trump was like, gotta put the signal gate guy on that one instead. So they put. God, why am I already. I've already. Mike Waltz. I almost forgot his name for a second. Mike Waltz. They put Mike Waltz over there, the UN as a consolation prize for giving up, you know, war plans over signal. And obviously Pete Heggs had suffered no injuries from that one. And, Or. Or any sort of. He really, I guess, remains one of the favorites because of his Fox News looks. But she was promised his post. She doesn't get it. So she decides I'll run for governor in New York, and she has a pretty decent chance. Lee Zeldin came very close to beating Kathy Hochul. And it was really the progressives in New York that helped put her over the line. And by New York, I mean New York City. And so I think that's why she has this very close relationship with Zoram Hamdani and will probably try to help him early on with his, you know, with his agenda. And that's super crucial. I used to cover City hall, too. And you can't, you really can't do anything as mayor without the governor. And I think Bill de Blasio learned that in his fights with, with Andrew Cuomo. But, you know, now she's kind of in the blues right now because Trump's, like, hugging Zoran Mamdani. I mean, if a picture tells a thousand words, I mean, they weren't physically hugging, but the way that they were talking, the way he looked at him, you know, saying, we have the same, you know, I understand your affordability message. We have the same voters. And she was planning to use Mamdani, as you know, that was her. That was going to be her boogeyman for this campaign. And frankly, all the Republicans were hoping for that. This Communist from New York in 2026. And here's Trump bear hugging him. And I just think she just keeps getting effed over by Trump over and over and over again when.

[A]

When she.

[B]

What are you going to learn? La.

[A]

When he was like, yeah, no, he's not a jihadist. He's a rational person. I watched it and I was like, that's the end of her campaign right there. Because, like, he just completely undercut her entire Islamophobic rhetoric in one statement. I mean, I don't think Stefanik has. I think she had a better shot six months ago. I think today with all the headwinds, I think Hochul is gaining more popularity, especially since Zoran's win in the primary and she, like, embraced him when other Democrats wouldn't. I don't know. I think she'll. I think Stefanik will lose by like 15, 16 points. I don't, I don't think it'll be a close race. And then I, and then I think Trump may actually find something in this cabinet for her somewhere, like an undersecretary of something in, in the State Department or whatnot, and move on.

[B]

Or ambassador to India. Oh, that one's already taken by sir.

[A]

Oh, true.

[B]

Yeah. By the head of PPO that he was unhappy with for. That Laura Loomer was unhappy with for putting deep staters. Right?

[A]

Yes, that's exactly right. Yep.

[B]

Deep stater slipped in the cracks.

[A]

Honestly, just make. Make Laura Lou her vice president.

[B]

Seriously, she is there all the time. Still don't understand that. He calls her. He likes her. That's what she told. That's what she told me. What's on your mind, Aaron? Like, what's keeping you up?

[C]

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[A]

The biggest thing actually is like the Supreme Court tariffs decision. Like that. I still go back to that, like every couple of days because I think it's coming sooner than June. I think it's coming, it could potentially come by the end of the year. And I think he loses. And I just, I don't know what that means for the American economy when he loses in front of the Supreme Court because we're going to have to pay back billions of dollars, not trillions like he says, billions, because we didn't actually get that much revenue. But that's going to kill our economy. And I don't think we're ready for it. So what about you?

[B]

That should keep us up at night. Yeah, that's a good one. It is also his one consistent policy throughout his entire life. Even when he was a Democrat, he was for tariffs. And if that doesn't work, then, you know, what are you. He loves the T word. He usually, there's no word more beautiful than tariff. I think he said that before.

[A]

He has said that.

[B]

I mean, I, I think he has an anvil on him. And it's called Trumponomics. And it's much like Bidenomics in the sense that, you know, Scott Bessant's on Meet the Press or whatever weekend show he was doing saying the economy's great, everyone's happy, everybody's. And everyone's like, no, that's not happening. And once that happens, that's when the dominoes start to fall. And I think that's what we saw with the Epstein vote. I think we're going to keep seeing that more and more. Where, like, I think that's what we probably saw with his Obamacare proposal. Where just a few tweets from, like, some Freedom House Freedom Caucus members, and they're like, we'll pull that one back. Like, don't you think you should have whipped in advance? Unless they're became so cocky that they thought that they didn't even need to whip in advance, that they just. Whatever they put forward, everybody would take it honestly.

[A]

By the end of this term, they're.

[B]

Dealing with real division.

[A]

Yeah. I mean, by the end of this term, Trump is just going to be like, I'm a Democrat. I've always been a Democrat my entire life. Like, I support y'. All. Like, let's work together. He's just. He's just going to go where things are popular. I think he's like, he's flailing. He doesn't know what to do anymore. And I really think his, like, the thing he had on Republicans before was that, like, he was going to be in the White House and he's running for reelection and he's going to be on the ballot. So they're going to be on the ballot now. He's not on the ballot. His policy. Policies are. Policies aren't popular. It's just a mess.

[B]

Yeah. So is there a bright spot in all of this?

[A]

Tough. The one bright spot. I'm really hopeful that we're going to get some Epstein files. I really am.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Like that. I don't know. I keep going and I talk to the. I know you do a lot of work with the survivors, too, but I talk to them regularly and every time I talk to them and, like, there's some hope that they're going to get the files. Like that, to me, is a bright spot.

[B]

So, yeah, I'm. I'm a little less optimistic, but I think we'll see some. Some things maybe.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Just because, like, the redactions and, you know, Pam Bondi just asked, I think, the Southern District of New York to hand over some files. And, you know, you've got grand jury files that they have to go through.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Where do they draw the line? The gatekeeper, obviously, is Pam Bondi, someone that we can't really trust. And. Yeah, I think you're right. I mean, that would be a bright spot, is to see, like, real transparency. Yeah. And find out, you know, what was going on with the Justice Department that they kept giving him. They gave him this Sweetheart deal. And why President Trump so badly does not want the Epstein files to come out. Yep. And yeah, I think that's right. I mean, we'll see what happens. It's all going to dump before Christmas. Strategically.

[A]

That's fine. I'm ready.

[B]

Happy reading. Happy reading, family.

[A]

Oh, my God. This is crazy. As we're talking, I just got a message from a banker I JP Morgan Chase. It's like, what?

[B]

Oh, geez. A source or just someone that like.

[A]

No, no, no. Like they randomly called me, conveniently, as I'm talking about the Epstein files.

[B]

Yeah. Well.

[A]

Well, here we are.

[B]

They. They bank on, as they say, right. Whatever they had to pay is nothing. Erin, this was great. Happy holidays. I'm thankful that you got on the line. I know how busy you are and we should do it again soon and just grab gab about the latest and share our insights. So let's do it soon.

[A]

And folks, go subscribe to Tara Subsect if you have. She's great.

[B]

Thank you. And and subscribe to Aaron's too. I think it's sideways when this will eventually post it.

[A]

All right, talk to you later.

[B]

That was another episode of the Tara Palmerie Show. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you like this show, please rate it, subscribe, follow, share it with all of your friends. Please leave comments. If you like my reporting, you can go to tarapaulmieri.com that's T A R A P A L M E R I. You can sign up for the red letter. That's where you can get all of my exclusive reporting and my independent journalism straight to your inbox. It is how you can support my independent journalism and I will keep at it. Thanks to you. I want to thank my producer, Eric Oppenhate. I want to thank Abby Baker, who does my research and my social media and Adam Stewart on the thumbnails. I'll be back again this week. I'm thankful for all of you. I hope you have a great Thanksgiving week and you are able to take it a little slower.