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Hey, want a cookie? Oh, I know you just ate, so you're craving something a little sweet. Besides, one cookie isn't gonna kill you. How about half? Just a bite. Bite it. Bite it.
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Bite it. Food noise isn't fair, but Mochi Health is your affordable glp. One source that puts you on a path to successful weight loss by quieting food noise. Bite it. Learn more@joinmochi.com Mochi members have access to licensed physicians and nutritionists. Results may vary. She's not opposed to mast deportations. Trump wants that. He's not opposed to people being rounded up and thrown out of the country. He wants that. But what he doesn't want is people seeing sort of the way the sausage is being made here by ice.
A
Welcome back to the Tara Palmeri Show. The White House is in panic mode because they've finally woken up to a simple fact. The ICE raids are a brutal visual one Americans don't want playing out on their TVs every day. And the backlash has only intensified after the killing of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis during that confrontation involving an ICE agent. Behind the scenes, Trump's team has been staring at private GOP polling conducted before Good's death, showing support is slipping. The numbers suggest that the very voters who helped deliver Trump's win in 2024, independent, moderate, minority voters, they are peeling away as these raids dominate the news cycle. And that is a flashing red warning sign heading into the midterms. Even Joe Rogan, whose endorsement of Trump was critical to bringing the manosphere over in 2024, is publicly voicing alarm about what he's saying. Take a listen.
B
Are we really going to be the Gestapo? Where's your papers? Is that what we've come to?
A
But here's the bind. For a president whose brand is never back down, recalibrating looks like retreat. So the question becomes, does Trump adjust or does he double down and turn to more force? Sure looks like it. Take a listen to my conversation with my former colleague and friend Mark Caputo of Axios, who's been reporting on the White House's internal wake up call and the quiet talk of recalibrating before this spirals further. This is a Monday.com ad. The same Monday.com helping people worldwide getting work done faster and better. The same Monday.com designed for every team and every industry. The same Monday.com, with built in AI, scaling your work from day one. The same Monday.com that your team will actually love, using the same Monday.com with an easy and intuitive setup. Go to Monday.com and try it for free. Yes, the same Monday.com. mark, thank you for joining the show. I'm sorry for your loss last night.
B
Thanks for reminding me. Yes, I appreciate that. Other than that, the point was great, Mrs. Lincoln.
A
You know, so if Mark seemed a little bit lower energy than usual, you know why? He's a Miami. Huge Miami fan.
B
You don't even know the name of the team. D. Yep. Miami Hurricanes. She's like, sports ball. Sports ball.
A
All I know is I was the only person in the nail salon getting my nails done while everyone was watching the game.
B
Fantastic. Well, it sounds good.
A
At the same time, I was catching up on my political news and I saw your latest story, which, you know, I love a good story about the White House having a freak out. And you're saying that full freak out, right? Oh, what is it then? What is it on the Richter scale of freakouts?
B
You know, that's a good one. I would put this, not, I, I just wouldn't put this in the freakout zone. But this is one of those things like, damn it, this is a problem, but what's the solution? Right.
A
Got it?
B
Yeah.
A
Okay, so we're talking about the ICE raids and the way they look. The way they are. The way they look is what they are, by the way. They're. I mean, the solutions that they suggested are hilarious, but we'll get into that later. But basically, the White House has realized that these are, these ICE raids are too confrontational and they are thinking about, in your own words, recalibrating the immigration approach, which I'd love to hear. What does recalibrating mean, according to your sources?
B
Well, we don't know. And they're, they're, they're not saying because remember, recalibration can either mean up or down.
A
And looks like up, by the way.
B
Well, correct. So, you know, it's one of those sort of multi layered things that you understand how Trump world operates. Like if you, if you look at the polling that was shared with the White House from a GOP polling firm.
A
That'S which one, by the way.
B
Can't say. That said over time they had a, they had, you know, a problem. But like just in October, which is they, they did like a, you know, there's a series here, like in October, they found that Trump's approval on the border was 13 points in the positive, which is like 53% supported immigration and border control under Trump and 46 were opposed. And actually it's not 13. Probably. I can't do math, that's 7%, not 7%. And before the shooting of Renee Good, it wound up being sort of dead even. And this was amid all of these videos and all of the, the news coverage of just sort of how aggressive law enforcement had been with, with citizens it was encountering and you can hold for a second.
A
Is that a kitty cat? Dog, please. Oh, it's a dog. He's driving me, as regular listeners of the Tower Palmari show will know, whining.
B
You know what I mean? So I'm trying to close the door. He tries to get in. Like I, I open the door. Yeah. Just. Or he wants to get up there. Is that it? Yeah, I'm sorry.
A
That's okay. So it's one of those.
B
Dude.
A
What, what is it about the polling that worries them? Is it because it's independence minorities? Like what is it about the polling that makes them worry about.
B
It's infrequent voters? It is the part of the sort of the swing coalition that helped Trump not only win in 2024, but that Republicans want to turn out to vote a Republican majority still in power in the House. And the problem they see is, is that, you know, the smooth brain sort of TV coverage of this is like, oh, Hispanics are the primarily targeted by immigration enforcement and therefore this is problematic for Hispanic voters. And that's undoubtedly true. But what freaks out Republican pollsters and pollsters in general is it's white voters and the, the normies within the white voter band, which is just a, just a bigger chunk of people who, they're.
A
Like the people on the margins in Pennsylvania and in New Jersey and New York that decide it's a Jordan.
B
It's a variety of people, you know.
A
Yeah.
B
Whether you know, you're, as I said, you're infrequents your independence and true swings and just sort of more broadly the sort of class of voters who aren't sort of always paying attention to what's going on in the news and aren't always voting blue or aren't always voting red. And there's just a problem with them.
A
It's hard to miss that a 37 year old woman which is shot while driving.
B
Right. Now this poll was, you know, these series of polls as I said, you know, I just have it back to October. This go. This went right, right up until right before Renee Good was killed like weeks before actually. Oh.
A
So it was before she was even killed that they were seeing bad polling.
B
That you guys, I mean this stuff was inescapable anyway because it's just because constant out there. And if you've seen other polling from like YouGov and independent polling firms, they've just found that a majority of people don't think the shooting is justified. Like only a third basically think it's do it is. And Trump is way underwater on handling immigration now. And privately, as we say in the story that I did with my colleague Alex Eisenstadt is in sort of true Trump fashion, he's started to express concerns is almost too strong a word. But he's expressed observations about how this stuff doesn't look that good and how.
A
It'S probably it looks like a war zone, which he claims to not like in other countries.
B
Right now, publicly he knows and publicly he will never betray his a sense of always being strong, always meeting force with overwhelming force.
A
Never back down.
B
Never back down. And you know, sorry, desantis. Well, Desantis sort of stole it from Trump.
A
Yeah, right.
B
Like along he stole everything from Trump except the charm. Right. So one of one of Desantis, I think one of the funniest things Trump ever said about the Sandy, he needed an emergency personality transplant. So.
A
But we digress.
B
Yeah, sorry. But yeah, Trump has privately just sort of expressed an observation that the videos people are seeing is problematic. So you're not opposed to mass deportations. Trump wants that. He's not opposed to people being rounded up and thrown out of the country. He wants that. But what he doesn't want is people seeing sort of the way the sausage is being made here by ice, which includes like shattering windows, dragging people out of cars. And yeah, there might be another story of who knows what. But it's independent of that stuff. It's the final product that people are seeing in their social media feeds. And increasingly more and more of us are on social media. That is a problem for the White House. And they also want, in addition to, you know, finding that his popularity and approval ratings on immigration, once a strong suit, are in the negative, to discuss the economy. They, they say they have a good story to do about the economy. And they, you know, the GDP is up, for instance. Unemployment is, is steady. Inflation is sort of holding steady. The stock market is at record highs, essentially.
A
Like what about. But now we're hearing from Amazon that the price of goods is going to go up. I mean, that was in your own newsletter today, right?
B
Well, yeah, and there's a separate story.
A
Has been bearing the tariffs, but eventually we'll have to place them on consumers. So.
B
Right. Well, the Wall Street Journal, for instance, had reported that, which is Sort of common sense thing. But we're in this era where you have to do that. A new study showed that, well, 96% of the costs of the tariffs have been borne by the American consumer in America.
A
Right.
B
Yeah, so. But nevertheless, they have the story about these sort of macro trends, how the economy is getting better, how things will get better, and they want to talk about that. What they don't want to talk about is, you know, why did someone get dragged out of a car screaming, why did you shoot a pepper ball in the face of a pastor protesting outside of an ice facility? And Illinois, that sort of thing, for.
A
That poor man that was dragged out in the middle of the night and he ends up being an American that was. That's like out of his house, like, freezing with a blanket over him. He was old. It was sad.
B
Right? And apparently if they said that they were looking for a criminal alien who, who was of Asian descent, but if you look at the picture of the criminal alien they were after, it didn't look like that guy. Like that. Like, the suspect was younger and that dude was like, in the 60s.
A
I think they're forgetting that it's really hard to detect people who are undocumented. So basically, you're relying on, like, a number of clues, leads, and pictures. And that's why this is a messy operation. And you can't just go about it willy nilly. But it's interesting what you said to me about how Trump loves the policy of deportation. He doesn't like the production of it because ultimately he is a producer. And something I've never forgotten about Trump is that when he graduated from college, from business school, he asked his dad for a loan because he wanted to be a Broadway producer. Like, that has always been his dream. And that is why he loved the Apprentice. He watches TV all the time, so he just doesn't like how it's airing. And I thought it was interesting. In your piece, you said that their solution to all of this was to go to other networks, other news operations that are not just FOX News and try to spin this. That is their solution is to spin the operation. I think that is so dumb. I don't know what else to say. You can't spin it like seeing is believing.
B
That's true. But the other solution is to. To, in your sort of Trump's mind, admit you're wrong. And that's not what he's going to do. The. Okay, the other thing that we had in the. The story, which is that the theatrics of this and the performative nature of it is rooted at least in part in. And this is according to administration officials who suspect this secretary, Homeland Security Secretary Christie Gnomes aspirations to run for president or someone for vice president in 2028. She's in charge of these sort of masked men terrassing around these neighborhoods and doing other things that they're doing. And the, the appearance of it does thrill the MAGA base, at least a number of them online. But that is a very small people that. That can sort of turn off the normies, Right?
A
Yeah. This isn't a MAGA base election, though.
B
Well, you always have to get your base out. And one of the things that they had set about doing in this administration was, quote, converting Trump voters into Republican voters. But so far, we've seen in all the very special elections have had so far, just like Obama had found, who had his own sort of cult of personality following, albeit nothing like Trump, was that the Obama machine without Obama was not much of a machine. The turnout of Trump voters without Trump on the ballot, it's not so good.
A
Yeah. You know, what else do they see in this poll? Like, what else was bothering people about the raids? This is, this is pre Renee Good, by the way.
B
This is pre Renee Good. I'll take my glasses off here, guys.
A
This is a top secret poll super. We've got.
B
I mean, it doesn't really say anything that other.
A
Is it basically the same as public polling or is it.
B
Actually, that's what's really interesting. You know, one of the things that kind of helps you sort of gauge what they're interested in. But like, in your opinion, who's best to handle each of these. These issues, specifically fighting illegal immigration in Congress. Like there, Trump and the GOP still perform well and the generics undecideds think that things are going well. Here's one. In your opinion, would you say Donald Trump focuses too much, too little or the right amount on each of the following? And then the question is immigration, immigration enforcement. A majority of people think that he's spending too much time focusing on immigration. So while the approval ratings for immigration have gone down, what's gone up is the number of people saying, hey, stop paying so much attention to this. Right.
A
Yeah.
B
And then there's a few other, you know, bands and charts. And I printed this out from online. There's a color chart which I can't read in black and white, so maybe.
A
You could pass it out on to our producer to throw up.
B
As I said, it was, it was handed to us. And, you know, on condition of super.
A
Secret Squirrel stuff in a dark parking lot like Deep Throat.
B
Yeah. By the way, it's really interesting to see nowadays how after the Russia investigation, all that stuff, there's a just a growing movement on the right saying that, that actually you know what? Nixon got screwed. Which is kind of fascinating, but that's a whole other separate kettle of fish.
A
We'll do that for another show. So okay, when they talk about recalibrate, I know you said that they won't like actually say it, but I mean, what are you hearing? Like fewer masks. Grab. Happy New Year. If you're anything like me, then your intention is to feel more present in your body. To bring more little luxuries into your life. To treat yourself like a queen, to really embrace life. And that's where Cozy Earth comes in. Their soft bedding, their luxurious pajamas and their towels that feel like a hug. Just a way to enjoy being in the present by upgrading the things around you that your senses, your touch, your smells. And so that's why I brought Cozy Earth into my life. And there's a hundred night sleep trial. You don't love them, return them hassle free. There's also a 10 year warranty because they're betting that this quality will last that long. Start the new year off right and give your home the luxury it deserves and make home the best part of Life. Head to cozyearth.com and use my code Tara. That's T A R A for up to 20% off. And if you get a post purchase survey, be sure to mention that you heard about Cozy Earth right here. Refresh your routines with comfort that makes everyday life feel like new year visuals. More focus on violent offenders. Like more courtroom processing visibility, fewer sanctuary city showdowns. Is there like anything tangible they have?
B
Showdowns are going to happen if there's resisting. But this is just my guess of the. Of those who would like to see a more normie approach would be fewer mass agents sort of smashing windows and grab, you know, pulling people out of their car.
A
Killing people. Yeah.
B
You know there's, there's and there's this sort of inherent conflict in this idea of like well, agents need to cover their faces to protect their identities. Right. Okay. Well if you're trying to do something in secret, then one thing you can try to do is do something in secret. Like if you're doing targeted raids on really bad guys, like driving around in the middle of the day with these convoys wearing masks is not really conducive to doing a secret operation. There was Some conversation I saw earlier that people were giving grief to CNN for having done a ride along in 2016 during the last Obama year with ICE.
A
Yeah.
B
And then comparing it to, like, see how CNN covered it back then and you see how they do it now. Well, back then you had ICE agents who weren't masked. It was at night. They were planning a targeted operation. You know, they were doing the things that you would think you would do in order to be successful, if success was actually achieving, busting the target. But if success is defined as, hey, let's own the libs and piss them off and let's throw our base and let's make a show of a force, yeah, that's a different outcome.
A
I don't understand why they thought Americans would be into this level of aggression in the first place. Like, even the people on the right who are libertarians that came over to Trump's base, like the Bernie Bros. And the. You know what I'm saying? Like the displaced right, you could say that could go either way. The populace, they don't like this show of force generally.
B
No, John. Well, libertarians don't like the idea of a police state, period. Especially if the police state entails, like, citizenship checks. One of the more devastating things on the right, the videos put aside, Renee Good. And some of these other ones was there was a guy, I think it was in Minnesota, who gets stopped, refuses to give his ID to prove he's a citizen. They search him and they're like, oh, he's got a gun. He's like, yeah, I got a gun. I'm a US Citizen, I got my permit. And then the, the officer basically says something, of course, masked officer says something threatening, unloads the magazine from the gun and then basically tosses it on the hood. You know, if you're a Second Amendment guy, you're like, like, that's kind of sacrilegious the way they're sort of handling a firearm and also sort of dealing with. I'm lowercase S, sovereign citizen here. Like, that's not how you deal with, with citizens. If you're, I mean, first of all.
A
You'Re masked, so your identity is gone. Is gone. You have a power in the fact that you have your gun on you. Yeah, it's, it's all just.
B
I'd be remiss if I can. I'd just be remiss in saying, like, there's also frustration in Trump's orbit now just with the way the media sort of covered this stuff, obviously. But, you know, they feel if you look at the way DC Handled this or Tennessee, when they were like, come in.
A
Don't kill everyone. You can occupy our city.
B
But, you know, you, you, you, we, we will help you enforce immigration law. Whereas they feel in Minnesota, they. Not only are they getting resistance and local police not helping out, and there's counter to that, but you have the various politicians who are telling people, yeah, go ahead and demonstrate, albeit they are saying peacefully, demonstrate peacefully. But their view is, in the White House is that the. The Democrats are not only refusing to supply the necessary sort of police power to help us out on one hand, on the other hand, they're sort of stirring people up to demonstrate, and that becomes dangerous and. And the rest transpire. So I just wanted to kind of express like their sort of frustrations are now, it's ultimately, though.
A
And at the same time, federal prosecutors just issued subpoenas to at least five Democratic officials in Minnesota ramping up their investigation.
B
The governor. Yeah.
A
Yep. The governor, Tim Waltz, and the mayor, Jacob Frey of Minneapolis. So, yeah, this isn't political at all.
B
Right, well, and if you compare what Waltz has said, Governor Walsh has said, people should protest, he says, but peacefully, you know, don't be violent.
A
Yeah.
B
Sort of is an echo of what Donald Trump told people on January 6th. It marched down to the Capitol. I'll be it like, he's like, but do it peacefully, but fight like hell. You know, I mean, but on one hand, they were saying, well, that's protected speech. Well, Trump people were saying, that's protected speech. He said peacefully. Well, Wall said the same thing. He said peacefully.
A
And he had no interest in saving poor Mike Pence either. Also, he was trying to stop Democratic. Just trying to stop the Democratic transition of power. So I don't know.
B
I'm talking about, you know, Trump's use of language, saying when he said, go down and protest peacefully, Trump's people were saying, well, that's not inciting a riot because he's saying peacefully. Okay, well, Waltz is saying, go ahead and protest, but do it peacefully. And yet he's being subpoenaed for that.
A
Yeah, you're right. Okay, free speechers. What do you think about that, huh? I do want to talk to you about deportation. Barbie, Christine. Ome. So she's lining herself up for a run in 2028. Possible VP if she has to get with JD Vance. Does this piss off Trump? Like, he doesn't really like ambitious people around him. And she's. And clearly ice is getting a bad M.O. how long is she, you know, in the Inner circle. I know you wrote that she and Stephen Miller, who are running this whole gambit, that they're still in his good graces even though the polling sucks. But, like, what if you look into the. You start reading cards about what their futures look like. I'd be curious to hear, because you, you know, you kind of get it. You get the game with, with Trump, people can fall out of favor pretty quickly.
B
They can, but I think what's we're starting to realize is that this administration is different from the first one in that he has a real resistance to trading people out and swapping them out, and he has an interest in sort of broadcasting stability. Yeah. Within his picks. So I, I don't get any sense that. That she's in any particular peril or anyone really is. Now that having been said, it's Trump. So you never know. Everyone sort of has a turn in the barrel, albeit Bess and Rubio have been sort of exempted from that. They are very much golden boys or golden children or whatever. But, yeah, Trump does like the fact that Kristi Noemus is, Is trying to do something, even though what's being done is not serving well when it comes to polling.
A
Yeah. Okay. I want to talk to you about their fears of impeachment. So, obviously, this is all about the midterms ultimately. Right. I mean, that's what everything is about, is elections.
B
Sure.
A
So what are they most worried about that he. That he's done that would lead to an impeachment?
B
They just think, and I'm not necessarily going to disagree with him, that he's going to get impeached for any number of things. Now, they're not saying exactly what those are. They'll say, of course, it's just all lawfare. Nothing's true. But, I mean, it's pretty clear that when Democrats get in there, they've already issued the. In the minority, a number of subpoenas or requests for documents, and we're going to see a whole lot more of that if and when Democrats take charge. The reality is it just kind of throws sand in the gears of the government for the majority party. All we see it. No reason not to see it this time.
A
What's impeachment anymore? Right. When you've been twice impeached, thrice impeached.
B
I mean, it. I guess it takes a little bit of the. Stay out of it. At the same time, though, it does, it does take. It does take your. For him, sort of eye off the ball from doing it. But Trump has spent so much Time on foreign policy this. This term or the, you know, the past year. Yeah, that. Who knows? Maybe it won't make that much of a difference to him anyway. He is having, from all accounts, just the time of his life. He's enjoying doing what he's doing. He's really.
A
He doesn't seem that happy to me. He seems, like, pissy, but, yeah, actually, he was pissier first term.
B
Would you blame him? Like, he didn't understand the place. He had advisors all stabbing each other. He was under investigation.
A
I could blame him, actually. The buck stops with him, you know.
B
But I'm just saying he also likes.
A
He also likes hitting everyone against each other. He thought it was the Apprentice and then he realized, oh, it's really hard to lead when I'm, you know.
B
Right. It makes it a little more complicated. He's not doing that this time. And he. He's really enjoying. He's really enjoying kind of feeling his own with foreign policy and the. The Venezuela operation. Atlantic did a very good piece about this. Had just really emboldened him to be much more muscular. So what. That's going to.
A
He old. So maybe he's, you know, thinking about the foreign legacy, his foreign. His legacy. And he thinks he can do it with foreign policy because domestic issues are just too difficult.
B
And I mean, so notably the talk about Greenland, just acquiring Greenland by whatever means has just greatly increased after the January 3rd seizing of Maduro in Venezuela.
A
Yeah, I actually called that on our State of the World show a few weeks ago. I said, my friend Sally and I, who's based in Dubai, she said, which country do you think he'll seize next? And I said, Greenland, even though obviously Iran is on top of list, but we shall see. And I hate that I'm even saying it with a jest because it's disgusting and. But at the same time, like, Davos seems like a total disaster.
B
It's going to be interesting, man.
A
Yeah. Prime Minister Mark Carney was just like, there is no more alliance anymore. We are not friends. You are just bullying us. And this was all a ruse anyway. It was a farce. The strongest powers were always going to do what they wanted to do. So the idea that we even pretended to be friends was fake, that we ever pretend to be allies. Really fascinating speech. I actually recommend that everyone go and listen to it.
B
I'd recommend you read his Thucydides about the Melian dialogue, which says that the strong do what they can or what they want, and the weak they must.
A
That's exactly what he said. That was basically his speech. So everybody's just, this is the new World Order.
B
And which is the old order, really, Right?
A
Yeah, it's the old New World Order, whatever.
B
Paleo, right? The Neo Paleo world Order.
A
Okay. And how much does this, these ICE raids the unpopularity of the economy. I read that 4 in 10Americans are actually happy with Trump. This is pretty much all the polling, 2 and 10. We're happy with Biden, by the way. So things are, you know, we're not great there either. How much do you think this threatens the gop, which has the slimmest of majorities right now? I don't even know. Like, some days they're not even really a majority. Right.
B
In November, it's a one, two punch. The main thing, obviously economy is the economy, stupid.
A
And yeah, yeah.
B
Fact is, is despite all of the charts and the like, that Donald Trump holds up and reminds people that he's basically making the same argument Biden was, was like, hey, you feel shitty. Like, here's a chart showing you shouldn't. Well, as the mama folks used to say, you can't tell people their feelings are wrong or, well, it's pointless to do so. But that's the dynamic he's facing. And people feel things are still bad. The num. The majority of Americans still think the economy in the country is on the wrong track. So that's just terrible for the incumbent party. And then you stack on onto it these, these other issues, which is, this conversation certainly shown hits a number of different segments of the electorate, from normies to your more libertarian types, and the combination of. It's pretty bad.
A
Yeah. I mean, Joe Rogan was obviously critical to Trump's win, right. And he's pushed back. He's called these ICE raids Gestapo. He as an influencer of the highest influence. Isn't it weird to say that guy that like gets high, does interviews for hour and a half? But yeah, I mean, are they worried about people like Joe Rogan who speaks to both conservatives and normies and like, when are the conservatives going to be like, hey, this isn't very conservative, by the way.
B
I mean, there's always been a divide in Trump world between your sort of Trump Republican and your conservative Republican. I, someone had once said, and I can't remember who, that the best way to define Trump as the is he's the best anti left politician, anti liberal politician they'd ever seen. Anti liberal doesn't necessarily mean conservative, albeit there's a lot of overlap in the Venn diagram. But you know, elections are choices. And Democrats have not demonstrated a whole heck of a lot of movement back toward the center themselves nationally, when you sort of look at things. So most Republicans are probably staying in the Republican fold, but the question is, is how many of them stay home in the midterm elections and how many Democrats are stirred up to turn out. I've said it a few times, Trump is basically nuclear energy. He produces a tremendous amount of power and also radiation. And the secret for Republicans is harnessing that energy so it benefits them and keeping the radiation in check and keeping the cooling tower over the reactor so it doesn't go into meltdown. And in midterms, the latter category is more likely to happen. You see on social media feeds and truth Social, he, he's sort of ranting the way he used to when pressure was higher on him. Like, you know, he said over the weekend that he wanted to issue an executive order saying that college football should only air the Army Navy game on the second Saturday of December. Like, this is the sort of what.
A
Kind of fever dreams.
B
Yeah, I mean, I understand he's making as an appeal to patriotism, but, you know, great, now we're, now we're told what we can broadcast.
A
State schools are basically patriotism. It's just not the Federalist system. Yeah.
B
Who knows?
A
Okay, so he's already floated invoking the Insurrection act in Minnesota, which makes me think that recalibration is actually just turning up the temperature because, like you said, retreat would look like defeat. Do you think that is fair?
B
The good. The good. The good shooting and then the reaction to it. It's sort of a Chinese finger prison, though. Harder you try to get them to pull out, the more you're going to get sort of get stuck. One thing to what's really become an issue for many on the right is there was a church that was subject to a demonstration from leftists in Minneapolis and Minnesota and or in the Twin Cities, and that you're going to hear more about that. So what we're seeing from the ICE agents on the right and then from the protesters in the left is meeting escalation for escalation. We're in the cycle.
A
Thanks, Mark. Also, Board of Peace with Russia. Like, what the hell is going on here?
B
Trying to attract Putin to go along with his plan for Ukraine, which I think has been demonstrated to not be effective. The other thing is, as we wrote today in Axios, the President Trump wants the Board of Peace to sort of replace the UN and importance. He has criticized the UN for being feckless. And he's got the Board of Peace and says this could be a model for the world. But it's difficult to talk about the Board of Peace on one hand and then talk about, like, well, we might invade Greenland on the other. And of course, we're gonna. We're gonna accept Putin, who is sort of a madman, into this coalition. Not, Not. Not your. Your most dovish character to have, but.
A
Kind of charitably, that's to say it mildly, yes. While they're about to put Ukraine into a crisis of no water and electricity, while they head into a very cold winter.
B
Well, happy conversations we always have, Tara.
A
Oh, gosh, Mark, tell me something good.
B
The guy who won. Who won the game last night for. For Indiana was a Miami boy who wasn't accepted in the University of Miami. And he came back and he beat, um, in his hometown of playing for the Hoosiers. And then when he was interviewed, he started talking about stoicism. He talked about how stoicism is important because it means being present in the moment. And I thought those are good words of advice, especially from a young college kid who seems to be doing right.
A
So that's not a bad version of masculinity, stoicism.
B
There are some people who are criticizing the rise of stoicism on the right, because some. Some in the kind of fitness and sort of influencer space, sort of use stoicism as sort of an excuse to. To, you know, be a man and don't talk about your emotions. And that's not quite what stoicism, you know, is. Although I do. I do think I have. What do I have? I have my microphone propped up.
A
You always talk about your emotions, Mark.
B
Yeah, I have my microphone cropped up on my. Cropped up on my. My Aurelius here. So once in a while, I'll do a little stoic reading myself. And I think I got Seneca as well. Is that Seneca here? Yeah, we got Erica, so.
A
All right.
B
It's gonna be cut from the show. I know, but that's okay.
A
Eric says stoicism after Caputo swears the dog is hilarious.
B
You know I never said I was perfect, right?
A
Yeah, yeah, that will end on that one.
B
All right, well, you can swear. You're welcome. You can keep the swearing of the dog if it makes for a good podcast.
A
No cussing at the dog.
B
Well, sometimes they deserve it, you know?
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Bye, Mark. Thank you.
B
Good to see him.
A
That was another episode of this Har Pal Mary show. Thanks so much. Like the show. Please follow subscribe like share it with all your friends. Leave a comment if you like my reporting, head to tara palmary.com that's ta.
B
That's really show.
A
I know, but that's.com and sign up for my newsletter Stoicism app, a paid subscriber. You will get my eight Independent journalism straight to your inbox. First, I want to thank my producer, Eric Abenate. I want to thank Abby Baker on that one. Research Social media. And I wanted to thank and Adam Stewart on the graphics. See you again soon. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart Choice make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.
Episode: Trump’s ICE Raids Backfire — Polls Crash, White House Scrambles
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: Mark Caputo (Axios)
Date: January 21, 2026
In this compelling episode, Tara Palmeri and Mark Caputo dissect the political fallout from President Trump’s aggressive ICE raids, which have ignited a nationwide backlash. The episode explores how graphic visuals of these operations—and a controversial killing by an ICE agent—have triggered a serious slump in Trump’s approval ratings, especially with centrist and “normie” voters. With the administration internally panicking and scrambling for solutions, Palmeri and Caputo offer a candid, inside look at the political calculus unfolding as the White House faces a potential midterm disaster.
Raids Dominate the National Conversation:
Polling Panic in the White House:
Brand Trap: Strength vs. Softening
Administration’s Flailing Solutions:
Normies, Libertarians, and Infrequents
Base vs. Coalition: The Electoral Danger
Secretary Kristi Noem’s Ambitions:
Democratic Pushback and Legal Escalation:
Constant Threat of Impeachment:
Midterm Peril for GOP:
Joe Rogan and the Conservative Split:
Internal GOP Fractures:
Tara Palmeri and Mark Caputo maintain a sharp, irreverent, deeply sourced, and conversational tone throughout—balancing dry political analysis with witty, teasing banter and inside-baseball asides. The discussion is frank about the limitations of White House spin, the reality of TV spectacle in politics, and the breadth of the backlash. Quotes are blended into the conversation, with Tara’s biting skepticism and Caputo’s straight-reporting style offering listeners both insight and amusement into the corridors of power.
For anyone following the high-stakes drama of Trump’s second administration, this episode is an unvarnished look at how a signature issue—and its mishandling—can threaten to detonate a coalition, reshuffle perception, and leave even Trump’s inner circle nervously recalculating the future.