The Tara Palmeri Show
Episode: What Washington isn't telling you about why we're in Iran with Steve Schmidt
Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Tara Palmeri
Guest: Steve Schmidt

Episode Overview

In this incisive episode, Tara Palmeri dives deep with veteran GOP strategist Steve Schmidt into the ongoing war in Iran, stripping away surface-level narratives and exploring why, how, and at whose behest the United States entered the conflict. The conversation candidly examines the political machinations, the lessons (un)learned from prior wars, the stakes for America's democracy, public opinion, and the quiet rifts in both U.S. political parties. Driven by audience questions, the episode underscores how disconnected Washington’s public messaging is from the reality perceived by insiders, and what history can teach us about the perils of military adventurism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Broken Promise: Trump, War, and Political Contradiction

• Trump’s War Record: Schmidt frames the initiation of the Iran war as a profound betrayal of Trump's key campaign promise to avoid new foreign entanglements.
  • “It is the single biggest, not even really close, broken promise of my lifetime... Trump has started a war with Iran. We have no allies to fight this war with. And he is wrong in his assumptions completely…” (Steve Schmidt, 02:06)
• Asymmetry in War Goals: He observes that regime change is a near-impossible objective, while Iran’s aim is just survival, creating an asymmetric conflict.
  • “For him to succeed, he has to depose the Iranian regime. It doesn't look like they're going anywhere. For the Iranian regime to succeed, they simply have to survive.” (Steve Schmidt, 03:47)

2. Echoes of Iraq: Institutional Blindness and Cherry-Picked Intelligence

• Lessons from Iraq: Schmidt reflects on his own support for the Iraq War and mistakes made due to government misrepresentation and a naïve belief in American omnipotence.
  • “Anytime people start talking about war, it's very important for everybody to be very rigorous in examining every word, every claim, every utterance.” (Steve Schmidt, 06:31)
• Comparing Iran’s Threat: Discussion highlights how current U.S. intelligence assessments diverge from presidential rhetoric—referencing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard contradicting Trump’s timeline for Iranian nuclear capability.
  • “President Trump was telling us that it was going to be weeks and we were going to get bombed by Iran… [But] more realistically, 2035, that's 10 years from now almost.” (Tara Palmeri, 09:06)
• Government Credibility: Schmidt admits deep skepticism about official claims, viewing institutional information as unreliable “double speak.”
  • “My personal view on this is I don't trust the representations of the government on any of this. And I don't say that as a conspiracy nut…” (Steve Schmidt, 14:16)

3. Strategic Deadlock: No Clear Victory, No Easy Exit

• Military Stalemate: Despite grievous losses inflicted on Iranian targets, Schmidt explains that air power won’t topple the regime or achieve U.S. objectives.
  • “We have destroyed 8,000 targets... The regime has not fallen. The regime is not trying to defend the navy. The regime is trying to survive.” (Steve Schmidt, 17:16)
• Economic Pressure as Strategy: Iran’s response has been to impact global oil prices, betting on economic pain to force U.S. retreat.
  • “This is a war about the global economy... Can they break the global economy? Can they push oil up to $200 a barrel before Trump loses his will? That's the test at hand right now. Who blinks first?” (Steve Schmidt, 18:45)
• The Limits of Air Power: Drawing from WWII and current conflicts, Schmidt underscores how technological superiority doesn’t guarantee outcomes.
  • “[Drones] can be built underground... The idea that you can end a country's [war footing] with bombs—these are the limits of air power.” (Steve Schmidt, 21:08)

4. Political Unpopularity and Legal Questions

• Public Opinion: Palmeri shares polling showing massive opposition—68% of Americans oppose deploying ground troops to Iran, with surprising splits among Republicans.
  • “68% of Americans... opposed deploying ground troops… even Republicans are split 50/50, which still shocks me.” (Tara Palmeri, 15:17)
• Authority to Wage War: Listeners raise the (il)legality of initiating war without Congressional approval or adherence to international law.
  • “Why are we talking about this as a policy issue? It's illegal to do this without Congress…” (Listener Michael Duke, 22:07)

5. Domestic & Geopolitical Ramifications

• Gas Prices and Economic Fallout: Economic pain from rising oil prices (already $4–$5 per gallon) may force Trump’s hand, undermining his political standing.
  • “Gas prices are rising…we are on really, really, really shaky grounds right now and... we could be heading into a sort of recession. I think gas prices are going to eventually make Trump cave.” (Tara Palmeri, 22:07)
• American Lives: Political Calculation: Schmidt bluntly asserts that, to Trump, American casualties are secondary to defeating Iran and declaring victory.
  • “I don't think he cares about it at all. I think he's wholly indifferent to the casualties. I think what he cares about is producing a victory…” (Steve Schmidt, 29:47)
• Isolation and Takeaways: Schmidt stresses the U.S. is globally isolated and that the MAGA movement can't substitute for genuine national unity in war.
  • “Countries lose wars. Not factions, not political parties. Political parties will pay the price for starting wars that the country loses.” (Steve Schmidt, 30:27)

6. Democratic Leadership and Political Gridlock

• Democrats’ Tepid Response: Palmeri criticizes timid Democratic leadership, speculating that funding and AIPAC donor influence mute criticism of the war.
  • “Their failure to use the bully pulpit, I think, demonstrates a real dissonance between what it is the Democratic voters are saying... and what Democratic leaders are willing to give back.” (Steve Schmidt, 34:54)
• AIPAC and the Israel Factor: Schmidt forecasts growing divides within the Democratic Party, as unwavering support for AIPAC and Israel becomes unsustainable given shifting grassroots sentiment.
  • “AIPAC has become an issue inside the Democratic Party. And that fault line is going to only deepen...” (Steve Schmidt, 35:35)
  • “The Israelis will rue the day when in the majority of American eyes, Israel became synonymous with the Netanyahu government...” (Steve Schmidt, 36:50)

7. Press Corps’ Access and Accountability

• White House Press Dynamics: Tara closes by lamenting the lack of solidarity among White House reporters, who are pressured into compliance by the Trump administration leveraging access.
  • “If they are unhappy with you, they will cut you out. And their bosses... are not backing them anymore... corporate media is beholden to Trump.” (Tara Palmeri, 38:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Iraq critique:
  “What he said was, what's wrong with you people?... do we have dumb leaders?”
  — Steve Schmidt (02:42)

• On American warfare hubris:
  “All of these people who claim expertise very often don't know what they're talking about. And there's a very American myopic worldview about all of these issues that involve the use of our military, that involve the use of our power, that are almost childlike.”
  — Steve Schmidt (07:28)

• On intelligence and trust:
  “Their job is to know as much as is possible to know. And my personal view on this is I don't trust the representations of the government on any of this.”
  — Steve Schmidt (14:16)

• On military myth vs. reality:
  “All of the hype, all of the propaganda... is hitting up against that stone cold reality: Iran is a big country. That what Trump has set out to do very blithely, carelessly, he's not capable of achieving...”
  — Steve Schmidt (26:13)

• On Democratic leaders’ passivity:
  “They are very tepid, they are very cautious... Their failure to do so, I think, undermines their legitimacy as leaders as time goes on.”
  — Steve Schmidt (33:31)

• On Israel and U.S. politics:
  “The Israelis will rue the day when in the majority of American eyes, Israel became synonymous with the Netanyahu government, with the extremist government, and with the policies of that government.”
  — Steve Schmidt (36:50)

• On the press corps:
  “Everyone's just kind of... they pit the reporters against each other. The White House does that to control the message... corporate media is beholden to Trump.”
  — Tara Palmeri (38:55)

Important Timestamps

• 02:06 – Schmidt on Trump’s broken promise and how entering the Iran war upends his base’s expectations.
• 05:59 – Schmidt reflects on supporting the Iraq War and lessons learned about war justification.
• 09:06 – Tara discusses the DNI contradicting Trump’s narrative on Iran’s nuclear threat.
• 14:16 – Schmidt’s trust in government and intelligence claims post-Iraq.
• 17:16 – How Iran’s strategy is to survive, not to win in conventional terms.
• 18:45 – Schmidt discusses Iran’s economic counter-offensive via oil price manipulation.
• 21:08 – Limitations of U.S. airpower in achieving stated war aims.
• 22:07 – Audience question on war legality and the disconnect between policy and law.
• 26:13 – Reality check for American military mythology and the effect on public perception.
• 29:47 – Schmidt asserts Trump is indifferent to casualties, fixated only on “winning.”
• 33:31 – The lack of forceful Democratic opposition and AIPAC’s role in party politics.
• 38:55 – Tara on the corporatization and weakening of the White House press corps.

Conclusion

This episode strips away government spin to expose the fraught politics, misguided strategy, and perilous consequences of the war in Iran. Schmidt’s sober, often scathing analysis spotlights cycles of overreach, misinformation, and political cowardice, while Palmeri’s reporting foregrounds public skepticism and the suppressed debates inside Washington. The conversation serves as a powerful indictment of establishment groupthink—and a plea for greater accountability and rigorous scrutiny before any nation chooses war.