The Team House Ep. 401: How JSOC Uses Instagram Ads to Track Terrorists | Mike Yagley

Date: March 14, 2026 | Host: Jack Murphy | Guest: Mike Yagley

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep-dive with Mike Yagley, a veteran of the ad technology industry who became an essential bridge between commercial data analytics and the U.S. intelligence/special operations community—especially JSOC (Joint Special Operations Command). Yagley was a principal architect behind commercial data-driven programs such as Locomotive and Visor, which leveraged commercial tracking and ad tech methods for operational, targeting, and security purposes. This conversation explores the technological, ethical, operational, and policy implications of using commercial data—including Instagram and other app telemetry—in modern intelligence and clandestine work.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Evolution of Ad Tech and its Intelligence Cross-Over

• What is Ad Tech?
  Ad tech refers to platforms and data science used to connect advertisers with consumers through programmatic, real-time bidding for ad placements—predicated on enormous volumes of behavioral, location, and device data.

  • “We basically have agreed to carry sensors with us wherever we go. And those sensors have become systemic to our livelihoods. But that data tells… a very intimate story.” – Mike Yagley [04:46]

• From Madison Avenue to JSOC
  Many of the best geospatial and behavioral analysts work in advertising, seeking “lift” for sales; national security simply shifts the model to finding “lift” for targeting or counterintelligence.

• Commercial Data as Intelligence (COMINT)

  • Ad tech data—drawn from everyday device telemetry—is now a low-risk, high-benefit intelligence source:
    “This is emerging as an ‘int’… and when introduced about 10 years ago, people were like, ‘This is revolutionary!’ But Madison Avenue has been doing this since smartphones became ubiquitous.” – Mike Yagley [05:57]

2. Yagley’s Journey into the Field

• Dot-Com to Intelligence
  • From dot-com era data analytics to sourcing commercial data for advertising—and then for national security.
  • "I was always in the data analytics field... integrating various data sets into a common operating picture. It's the same mechanics as in intelligence: identifying patterns, correlations, and things that are non-obvious." – Mike Yagley [08:46]

3. The Breakthrough Moment: Commercial Data for JSOC (Locomotive)

• JSOC Approach

  • Yagley was approached by JSOC at a finance/data conference by officers seeking commercial data for operational use overseas, especially in conflict zones like Syria and Libya.
  • "They definitely did not fit into the hedge fund crowd. ...They said, 'Can you do this in Syria, Libya or Yemen?'" – Mike Yagley [21:31]

• Geofence on Fort Bragg (The “Oh Shit” Moment)

  • Yagley demonstrated the power of commercial location data by geofencing a classified area at Fort Bragg, tracking phones that appeared at the compound to Syria, and then to their owners’ homes in North Carolina.

  • "I geofenced that area... and in Syria, I get a cluster of devices that correlate with what you were seeing at Fort Bragg. And I tracked these devices to residences in Southern Pines, North Carolina. ...I had no a priori knowledge. ...I'm showing pictures and people were like, that's Sergeant Major’s house." – Mike Yagley [33:01–36:33]

  • This demonstration shocked JSOC leadership, confirming both the power—and the signature risk—of commercial telemetry.

4. Resistance and Culture Clash inside the Community

• Skepticism & Culture Wars

  • Early resistance from traditional SIGINT/ELINT practitioners—viewing purchased data as “not real intelligence.”
  • “Trying to define what some of these things are. Who cares? It’s data that’s useful to the mission.” – Mike Yagley [31:43]

• Signature Management Challenges

  • Operators and analysts must now grapple with "ubiquitous technical surveillance" (UTS)—the commercial signature they emit compared to both the local population and other government personnel.

  • "You're up against an $8 trillion duopoly—Google and Apple—unified in predicting human behavior at planetary scale. So right out of the gate, you are trying to defeat $10 trillion of market cap with your mission center and three dudes who learned about ad tech three days ago." – Mike Yagley [39:00]

5. Ad Tech: Operational Use and Limitations

• Building Locomotive and Visor

  • Locomotive was a POC combining 'location' and 'motive'; Visor (Virtual ISR) became a multi-agency program delivering raw data into a classified cloud for interagency partners (FBI, CIA, JSOC, etc.).
  • “We decided the command did not need more software; they wanted raw data.” – Mike Yagley [13:04]
  • “Visor: Virtual ISR—sort of a stick in the face to SIGINters who didn’t believe it was possible. We were doing ISR work virtually, buying the location data.” – Mike Yagley [56:05]

• Case Examples

  • FBI: Stephen Paddock (Vegas Shooting)

    • Used data to rule out connections and identify mundane patterns (e.g., landscaper’s phone).
    • Caveat: Commercial data is less useful for incident resolution than cohort/pattern analysis.
    • "This is why it’s not the best use case for incident resolution... But it’s excellent for big picture cohort work." – Mike Yagley [61:31–64:15]

  • JSOC: Targeting and Collateral Mitigation

    • Operators used data to estimate non-combatant presence before assaults—improving discrimination and risk assessment.
    • "As you are about to assault this compound... I can tell you how many women and children there are before you begin... I was off by one." – Mike Yagley [67:06–68:09]

6. Technical and Operational Insights

• Device Behavior as a Flag

  • Even well-trained operatives are “anomalous” if they behave differently from population baselines (e.g., power off phones).
  • “The population in the US of people who power down their phone three or four times a week is very, very small. ...If I’m interested in everyone in D.C. who does that... I now have 500 targets, 300... instead of millions.” – Mike Yagley [44:44–45:45]

• Adversary Capabilities and Policy Gaps

  • Any country (not just U.S., China, Russia) can buy this data off the shelf for intelligence.
  • "Who’s the adversary? Advertiser or adversary—they’re doing the same thing. Conversion metrics may vary." – Mike Yagley [19:03–19:33]
  • "Anyone can do it. It's gotten a little tighter... but there are no guardrails." – Mike Yagley [52:54]

• AI and The Future

  • AI now enables adversaries to spot subtle anomalies, rendering some traditional tradecraft obsolete.
  • “This isn't something to defeat—it's something that you figure out how to operate within.” – Mike Yagley [39:06]

7. Defensive Countermeasures: Signature Reduction & Privacy

• Limits of “Going Black”

  • Completely erasing one’s signature is no longer feasible in connected society.
  • "Going black isn't what it used to be. ...Accept that it’s not about evading observation, but managing your behavioral model.” – Mike Yagley [101:20]
  • "Yes, 100%. Now we have to blend electronically as well as physically." – [105:46–105:47]

• Operator Training and Public Advice

  • Focus is shifting from futile “defeating” UTS to practical privacy management and blending in the digital crowd.
  • "How do we operate with a phone that’s normal, but doesn't declare intent?" – Mike Yagley [103:07]
  • Privacy is a dignity and safety issue for all, not just operatives.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Commercial Data as a Strategic Asset:

  • “Some of the best geospatial intelligence analysts work on Madison Avenue wearing skinny jeans. ...They’re looking for lift, for sales. We need lift—for operations, for opsec. The words change, but the method is the same.” – Mike Yagley [05:25]

• On Signature Risk:

  • “I didn’t hack, engineer, intercept, or steal this data. I bought it.” – Mike Yagley [30:07]
  • "You are up against nearly $10 trillion of market cap with your mission and three dudes who learned about ad tech three days ago." – [39:00]

• On Operative Anonymity:

  • “If you are, if your premise is I need to operate without being observed, ...you're not going to be operating anywhere in a city. ...Accept that universal truth.” – [101:20]

• On Policy Lag:

  • “The people who make policy don't have a clue... Our adversary is well beyond that.” – [70:12]

• On Future Training:

  • "We need PhDs who can win a bar fight and write a little bit of code." – [76:19]

Important Timestamps

• [04:46] – Ad tech as “commercial data”/new intelligence discipline
• [15:04] – Core mechanics of ad tech, real-time bidding, and device targeting
• [21:31] – First JSOC approach at finance/conference; the “overseas” use case ask
• [33:01–36:33] – The Fort Bragg/Southern Pines geofence “oh shit” demonstration for JSOC
• [39:00] – Explaining the scale of commercial surveillance, the “$10 trillion duopoly”
• [44:44] – Discussing phones/devices as behavioral “flags”; anomalous behavior tracking
• [56:05] – Locomotive to Visor transition; multi-agency intelligence data brokering
• [67:06–68:09] – Delivering operator ground truth: civilian counts and risk reduction
• [101:20]–[105:47] – UTS acceptance, operating within observation environment, and signature management as behavioral blending
• [114:54] – Unplugged phone: hardware-based privacy solution, not just for operators
• [124:42] – Privacy advice for all: you don’t know who’s looking, or who will look in 10 years

Final Takeaways

Data is Power—But Also a Vulnerability

• Ad tech and intelligence are now inseparable. Data collected for advertising—location, app usage, shopping trends—can be weaponized for tracking, targeting, and compromising individuals or groups.
• Signature management is no longer optional. Blending into the electronic noise is now as critical as blending in physically for operatives, diplomats, and anyone concerned about privacy.

The Golden Age of Anonymity is Over

• Gone are the days where intelligence officers could easily “go black.” Modern tradecraft requires understanding and living within the surveillance ecosystem–often leveraging the same tools as adversaries.

The Policy and Technology Gap

• Policymakers’ failure to keep up with technology has left gaps—both in defensive postures and in the legal/ethical use of commercial data in intelligence/law enforcement.
• The U.S. and its allies, as well as adversaries and even non-state actors, can acquire these tools “off the shelf”—moving toward a democratization (and possible chaos) of global surveillance.

Privacy is for Everyone

• “Privacy is normal.” The imperative to control one’s data isn’t just for “spies”—it’s about human dignity, unpredictable futures, and protecting oneself from unknown adversaries or exploiters.

Further Reading / Follow Mike Yagley

• Upcoming Book: The Quantum Signature: How I Spy on Terrorists, Traitors and You (June release)
• Company: Board member at Unplugged – a privacy-focused, proprietary operating system/phone to block unwanted telemetry at the system level.
• LinkedIn: Mike Yagley (main platform; not on TikTok!)

Summary by Podcast Summarizer AI – For full context, listen at The Team House Podcast, Ep. 401