Mark Polymoropoulos (4:09)
First a cool VBSS story since we talked about the Greeks. We actually trained the Greek seals in VBSs. And we literally went, you know, like those. Those cruise. Those passenger ships that go to all the islands. We just hit those non stop until we got to the island that we wanted to go to, and then we just pull into the island, sit out on the beach, drink wine, eat, you know, calamari and all that stuff. And man, that was glorious. I don't think it's as sexy or cool for the guys that are doing this for real. Okay, so we're talking about Iran again. You know, I'd start with this. You know, we do need to get to a point where the US can be successful on this. We've talked about this a lot, and I think we have accomplished some of our military objectives. We never should have used the regime change as an objective. Clearly, we do have probably, and I think Jonathan and Mark can go into detail on this. I think we probably have a more hardline regime right now than we did before the war started. And I think we just need to accept that that's what it is. We have made strides against their ballistic missile program, which was somewhat of a shield for their nuclear program. We have made some strides against their suicide drones. But I'd be too. I'd be careful from a messaging point of view of overstating that, because clearly they're going to rebuild it. And if they're back to where they were in a year, those military objectives are not going to look as significant as they do right now. So. And then, of course, the question is, how do we deal with the top priority, which is the nuclear ambitions of Iran, which probably would mean recovering the 440kg of highly enriched uranium. But it's important to point out they have about 10 tons of enriched uranium, not to that level, but. But the best way to ensure that they don't try to get a nuclear program is make it completely against their interest to have a nuclear program, which means a negotiated nuclear agreement that provides them benefit. Sanctions relief, of course, being the primary, that has complete visibility. So the IAEA has the ability to. To ensure that they're not developing nuclear weapons. But to, to say that we're going to just mow the grass, so to speak, which I'm not necessarily opposed to, but I just don't think it's practical. So I think we should put all our eggs into, or not all of them, but a majority of our eggs into the diplomatic basket to try to get there. And yes, it has to be better than the 2015 agreement for political reasons. Are people really going to ask why we elected to pull out of that just to get back to the same agreement? And it does have to address the ballistic missiles in some capacity, at least restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, Obviously that was open before we started, so we can't leave it worse off. They've found their major pressure point, and it is a pressure point. We can all acknowledge that. And we've tried to counter it with the blockade. I do believe that's where the US Is going to double down. I don't think we want to insert ground forces into this conflict for multiple reasons. One, there's really no exit strategy. If we do, it's only escalatory. So we're going to try to push hard on the blockade. And I do think it's having an effect. It just, I guess the next step is what will Iran do to try to break it or they start attacking their neighbors again while they get the Houthis to try to obstruct the Red Sea. Bob Almendev? Don't know. I do. I mean, it's just the way it is. The way we're negotiating publicly, I find it to be highly ineffective at the negotiation process itself. Every time we say things like, well, we really don't care, this could last forever, it just screams, we really do care. We don't want this to last forever. You're basically just telling the Iranians over and over and over again that if they can outlast us that they'll be successful. It's clearly an indicator to me that we're highlighting what is the most concerning to us, other than that maybe a bifurcated process where we can get to a negotiated end to the war and then start the long term negotiated process to get to a new nuclear agreement. It seems like we're thinking this is all going to happen at once and it took two years to get to the original agreement. We're not going to send two guys with no experience over there and both simultaneously end the war and come up with JCPO POA 2.0. It's just very unlikely to happen. And the more we think it's going to happen, the more we're going to, I think, fall short. And when we do get to the long term negotiating process, we need to bring in experts, nuclear experts, couriers from the military, State Department intelligence community to be successful and to be long term. And I think we're going to have to convince the Iranians that we're not just going to pull out of the agreement in three years because the next president doesn't like President Trump or what's the point? I mean, they might be wondering why are we even bothering this? Because we're not going to get a treaty. We're only going to get an executive order level thing. So even if they do promise never to attack us again, it's not going to matter because the current president can't bind the future president and things like that. So we're going to have to address all these issues. But ultimately it's worth it if we can get to a new agreement that stabilizes the Middle east, which of course is in our own interest as well as our partners in the Middle East. And then there's all the other issues going on with manufacturing and defense industrial complex in the United States being able to keep up with this. We're getting very short on precision strike munitions interceptors. Our allies are now wondering whether we are the right provider of said weapons because we're not keeping up with our obligations based on our actions and deciding to go to war. So that that's a bigger broader issue, but it's a real issue from people that are reaching out to me, from our European partners, so I'll stop there. And I don't know if we're going to talk about the event last night, but Iran's obviously the major issue.