42:I[58016,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/5e17b2e37c80a96c.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/53f751967ccc7d59.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/00da439d4db502cc.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"ProcessEpisodeButton"] 45:I[45269,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/5e17b2e37c80a96c.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/53f751967ccc7d59.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/00da439d4db502cc.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"SignupCTA"] 47:I[56939,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/5e17b2e37c80a96c.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/53f751967ccc7d59.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/00da439d4db502cc.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"EpisodeTranscript"] 3c:["$","span",null,{"className":"inline-flex items-center gap-2 bg-secondary/50 px-3 py-1 rounded-full","children":[["$","svg",null,{"className":"w-4 h-4","fill":"none","stroke":"currentColor","viewBox":"0 0 24 24","children":["$","path",null,{"strokeLinecap":"round","strokeLinejoin":"round","strokeWidth":2,"d":"M8 7V3m8 4V3m-9 8h10M5 21h14a2 2 0 002-2V7a2 2 0 00-2-2H5a2 2 0 00-2 2v12a2 2 0 002 2z"}]}],["$","time",null,{"dateTime":"2026-02-24T12:00:00.000Z","children":"Tue Feb 24 2026"}]]}] 43:T47b,

In this video podcast, Bruce makes his boldest statement yet about probability. He dives into David Deutsch’s lecture “Physics Without Probability”—as well as our Episode 100 interview with Deutsch—to unpack the core argument.

Bruce carefully works through the mathematical details of Deutsch’s claim that probability is merely a “flat-earth approximation.” As best as he can make sense of it, however, the argument just doesn’t add up. In fact, Bruce concludes that Deutsch’s own reasoning seems to imply that probability is not at all comparable to a flat-earth approximation.

From there, he methodically explores whether this long-running debate about probability is really a case of word essentialism—an argument over definitions rather than a substantive difference.

He closes with an impassioned plea: if someone out there truly understands Deutsch’s argument, please help him pinpoint exactly where he’s going wrong.

⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠⁠

Episode 134: The Deutsch Slot Machine