The Times Tech Podcast – “Earth is not Enough”

Episode Date: September 24, 2024
Host(s): Danny Fortson (from San Francisco), Katie Prescott (from London)
Series: Tales of Silicon Valley, Episode 5

Episode Overview

This episode of The Times Tech Podcast, “Earth is not Enough,” explores the renewed race to colonize the Moon and the rise of a new era in private space exploration. With insights from leading entrepreneurs, engineers, and would-be astronauts, Danny Fortson investigates why billionaires are fixated on expanding humanity’s presence beyond Earth, discusses the economics driving this new space rush, and asks: Why now, and what’s really at stake?

Key Topics & Segments

1. The Historical Lull and New Beginnings (02:05–06:13)

• Recap of the “Golden Age”:
  Danny reviews how the Apollo missions once fired imaginations, but after 1972, enthusiasm waned due to cost, risk, and tragedy (Challenger 1986, Columbia 2003).
  • “Since then, the surface of the moon has been untouched by human boots. The ends didn't justify the means.” (02:15)
• America’s Human Spaceflight in ‘Deep Freeze’:
  With the grounding of the Space Shuttle (2011), American manned missions stopped.
• Billionaire Moonshots:
  Naveen Jain, Jeff Bezos, Sir Richard Branson, Elon Musk, and the late Paul Allen emerge with bold proposals for lunar settlement.
  • “I absolutely believe in 10 years we're going to be having a permanent settlement on the moon.” – Naveen Jain (04:12)

2. The Billionaire Mindset (06:13–08:36)

• Why Aim For the Moon?
  Is this the “ultimate ego trip,” or something more?
  • “If you're that type of person who's done the impossible before, is settling a celestial body 240,000 miles away actually that crazy of an idea?” – Danny Fortson (08:04)
• Potential Benefits:
  Speculation that off-world colonies could provide economic opportunity, “clean slate” for governance, and even social laboratories for humanity.

3. Virgin Galactic: First Steps and the Space Tourism Model (06:49–11:45)

• Scene Setting:
  Mojave desert, Virgin Galactic HQ—where Branson’s team prepares for commercial suborbital flights.
  • “A single 90 minute round trip will set you back $250,000. Branson is confident customers will be willing.” (07:38)
• Technical Innovations:
  Mike Moses (Virgin Galactic Ops, ex-NASA) explains the White Knight 2/Unity launch system.
  • “You've got to ride a rocket at Mach 3 to get there… that's a good part of the ride.” – Mike Moses (09:47)
• Milestones:
  Recalling Burt Rutan’s Ansari X Prize win (2004) as the start of private spaceflight competition.
• Broader Vision:
  George Whitesides (CEO, Virgin Galactic): tourism is only the beginning—moon missions are “four steps down the road.” (11:22)

4. Other Players: Blue Origin and SpaceX (11:45–13:36)

• Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin:
  Unveiled “Blue Moon” lunar lander; commercial test flights to start soon—goal: “This time to stay.” (12:01)
• Elon Musk’s SpaceX:
  Falcon Heavy is powerful enough for lunar missions—the most capable rocket since the Apollo era.
• Comparison to Apollo:
  Then: national, public-sector driven, existential threats (Cold War). Now: billionaire-funded, opportunity-driven, private innovation.

5. Why Now? The Economics and Technology Shift (15:08–17:21)

• Rockets & Water:
  • Rockets: Cost has “collapsed tenfold” due to tech advancements and NASA's embrace of private partnerships.
  • Water: Discovery of massive lunar ice in 2009—game changer for lunar habitability.
    • “A simple cost threshold for setting up a little base on the Moon… has changed from hundreds of billions of dollars to maybe a few billion dollars.” – Will Marshall (16:57)
    • “There's enough [water] for tens or even hundreds of millions of people to be there for hundreds of thousands of years.” – Will Marshall (17:32)
• Private Opportunity:
  Individuals in the Bay Area could now theoretically fund a lunar base—costs have democratized (for the ultra-wealthy).

6. Motivations: Survival, Economics, and New Societies (18:04–19:37)

• Backup Planet:
  Moon as a “Plan B” against extinction events (asteroids).
• Societal Experimentation:
  Could be a testing ground for new governance systems.
  • “What rules are we going to use? ... Do we allow war? Under what circumstances? ... Clean slate opportunity is a tremendous one.” (18:36)
• Historical Parallels:
  Birth of the American Republic cited as a previous ‘clean slate’ opportunity—moon as the next.

7. The Visionaries’ Perspectives (19:37–21:49)

• Jeff Bezos’ Vision:
  • Necessity from impending resource exhaustion on Earth.
    • “We will run out of energy on Earth. This is just arithmetic… we have unlimited resources [off-Earth].” (19:47)
  • Proposes O’Neill Colonies: human population could reach 1 trillion, with Earth as an “interstellar suburb.”
    • “These are very large structures… miles on end, and they hold a million people or more each… This is Maui on its best day. All year long. No rain, no storms, no earthquakes.” (20:59)
    • “Earth ends up zoned residential and light industry… But heavy industry and all the polluting industry, all the things that are damaging our planet, those will be done off Earth.” (21:49)
• Danny’s Wry Tone:
  “Would you expect anything less from the guy who brought us Prime Day?” (21:49)

8. The Human Element: Early Astronauts and Real Risks (22:04–26:57)

• Virgin Galactic’s Test Pilots and Customers:
  • 600+ people have already paid $250,000 for a ticket; some waited a decade.
  • Michael Gammerl (customer): “It’s the adventure of a lifetime, and I’m not worried about things like dangerous or scary stuff like that.” (22:55)
• Tragedy and Perseverance:
  • 2014: VSS Enterprise disaster; test pilot killed.
  • Richard Stiber (future customer): “Even though people were dying and the engine was explosing, I didn't ask for the money back… I want to ride a rocket.” (24:20)
• Astronaut’s Awe:
  • Space changes people; awe-inspiring views, a sense of the planet’s fragility.
    • “Going into space gives you a sense of scale of the planet… the atmosphere is incredibly thin. And then you’re staring into this, you know, empty blackness.” – Dave Mackay (test pilot, paraphrased, 25:40)
  • Beth Moses (first non-pilot with commercial astronaut wings): “Space is indescribable. But I think Earth was wearing her diamonds.” (27:06)
  • On colonization: “I think the moon should be colonized. I'd love to go live there for a while. Sure. I think the human spirit is inconquerable…” (27:32)

9. Reality Check: Who's Likely to Succeed? (27:44–28:38)

• Virgin Galactic’s Crowdfunding:
  $150 million pre-paid for tickets.
• Moon Express:
  Early pioneer now “failed to launch”—missed NASA contracts, staff cuts.
• Blue Origin/Bezos:
  Jeff Bezos is seen as the likeliest to deliver.
  • “Please, make no mistake about this. Earth is the best planet. We must have a future for our grandchildren… We cannot let them fall prey to stasis and rationing… you will see amazing things happen. And it will happen fast.” (28:38)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Naveen Jain (Moon Express):
  “I absolutely believe in 10 years we're going to be having a permanent settlement on the moon… in the next 20, there's going to be a baby born on the moon.” (04:12)
• Beth Moses (Virgin Galactic):
  "I've not heard language to describe what I just experienced… closest thing I've ever had to a spiritual epiphany." (06:23)
• Will Marshall (Planet, ex-NASA):
  “There's enough [lunar water] for tens or even hundreds of millions of people to be there for hundreds of thousands of years.” (17:32)
• Jeff Bezos (Blue Origin):
  “For all of human history, the Earth has felt big to us. That's not true anymore. The Earth is no longer big. Humanity is big.” (20:14)
• Beth Moses (on astronaut wings):
  "Mine happened to be number 007, which I quite love." (26:57)
• Richard Stiber (future astronaut):
  "Even though people were dying and the engine was explosing, I didn't ask for the money back.... I want to ride a rocket." (24:20)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:05 — Recap of Apollo, shuttle era, and historic context
• 04:01 — Naveen Jain’s “eighth continent” vision
• 06:49 — Mojave setting / Virgin Galactic intro
• 08:36 — Interview: Mike Moses, Virgin Galactic (launch process explained)
• 11:45 — Blue Origin, SpaceX, and the economics of moonshot
• 15:08 — Virgin Galactic ‘by hand’; new technology & water discovery
• 16:57 — Will Marshall on cost & water
• 18:36 — Governance, society, and experimentation in space
• 19:47 — Bezos’ logic of finite resources and new habitats
• 20:59 — O’Neill colonies described
• 22:04 — The human angle: customer stories, test pilots, danger
• 27:32 — Would a real astronaut move to the Moon?
• 28:38 — Bezos: “Earth is the best planet” and closing vision

Episode Tone and Style

• Richly narrative and personal, blending on-the-ground reporting with big-picture analysis.
• Wry humor and skepticism, particularly in reference to billionaire ambition.
• Awe and almost spiritual reverence from actual astronauts and space tourists.
• Optimism about humanity’s “inconquerable” spirit, leavened with realism about the risks and economics.

Summary

“Earth is Not Enough” delivers a sweeping look at the new space race, charting the convergence of technological progress, billionaire ambition, existential risk, and the lure of new horizons. Through expert voices and first-hand encounters, the episode asks whether a Moon base is just ego-fuelled fantasy, or a logical next step for our restless species—right as the practical barriers to getting there seem to fall.