When oil prices spike nearly 30% in a matter of days and a weak jobs report hits on the same Friday, the word on every investor’s mind is stagflation. On this episode of The Financial Hour of the Tom Dupree Show, host Tom Dupree, James Dupree, and Mike Johnson break down how the Middle East conflict is rippling through oil markets, what it means for interest rates and inflation, and why personalized investment management matters more than ever when volatility takes center stage.

Whether you’re thinking about retirement or already drawing income from your portfolio, the current environment is a powerful reminder that how your money is managed — and who manages it — can make the difference between weathering the storm and watching your principal erode.

How the Middle East Conflict Is Driving Oil Prices and Market Turbulence

The most immediate market impact from the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran has been felt in energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged from roughly $72 per barrel to touch $92, according to data tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration — a move of nearly 30% in just days.

Mike Johnson explained the supply dynamics at play: “Kuwait — they’re cutting oil production. And this is because the Strait of Hormuz is cut off for all practical purposes. These big producers are running out of storage for the oil. They’re essentially closing up the wells.”

The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of all global oil shipments daily. With roughly 90 million barrels of crude produced worldwide each day, shutting down that corridor has massive supply implications. Tom Dupree noted the physical challenge: “What keeps an oil well going is the oil flowing through all the little capillaries. When that gets turned off, it starts to sludge up.” Restarting shut-in wells can take days to weeks, and operators risk losing pressure and production permanently.

For those tracking market commentary on gasoline prices, Mike pointed out a critical consumer threshold: “When you get to about $3.50 a gallon, that’s when you start seeing an impact on spending in a more meaningful way. And then $4 is when things start getting much worse in terms of consumer spending.”

Stagflation Fears: Why One Jobs Report Has Investors on Edge

The Friday jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in weaker than expected, and the combination of rising commodity prices with a slowing labor market triggered immediate stagflation concerns across Wall Street.

As Mike explained: “The market’s immediate knee-jerk reaction was that terrible S-word — stagflation. If we have a slowing economy with higher commodity prices, you have inflation and a slowing economy.”

Tom was quick to add perspective: “One jobs number does not stagflation make. It’s a trend. But the fact that oil’s going up is gonna be considered inflationary, and then you get that jobs report on top of it.”

Despite the volatility — with the market opening down 1.5% on Monday before recovering, followed by a sharp Tuesday sell-off — the broader indices showed resilience for the week. Mike observed: “We’ve essentially declared war. You’ve got oil prices up 30%. The market’s only off a little bit for the week. It’s been resilient as a whole.”

This kind of choppy, bifurcated market is exactly why a disciplined investment philosophy matters. When risk-on and risk-off signals get scrambled day to day, reactive investors often make the wrong moves at the worst times.

AI and the Job Market: Disruption Is Real, But It’s Not All Bad

The conversation turned to how artificial intelligence is reshaping the employment landscape and what it means for market sentiment. James Dupree offered a nuanced take on the weak jobs data: “The AI stocks — they don’t really tie that to the economy because AI is going to replace jobs. So it might actually be good if there’s a bad jobs report for those AI stocks.”

Mike broke down where the disruption is hitting hardest: “Some of your more tenured and senior workers — they’re benefiting from AI. What it’s impacting are the entry-level jobs. The number crunchers, entry-level analysts — those are the type of things that are able to be AI-ed away.”

Tom drew a historical parallel: “AI is obviously the big thing right now. It’s the same way that the dot-com stuff was 20-something years ago. There will be winners and there will be losers, but I happen to believe that AI may actually create jobs because there will be more things that people can do.”

For investors, the takeaway is that AI-related stocks occupy a unique space in the current market. James pointed to NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio of 22 — below the S&P 500’s five-year average of roughly 23 — as evidence that some of the market’s fastest-growing companies are actually reasonably valued despite the broader market looking stretched.

Sequence of Returns Risk: The Retirement Danger Most People Don’t See Coming

Perhaps the most critical segment of the episode focused on a concept that every person in retirement or thinking about retirement needs to understand: sequence of returns risk. This is the idea that when your returns happen matters just as much as what they average over time — especially when you’re withdrawing money from your portfolio.

Mike walked through a clear example: “Let’s say you have a million dollars and you’re drawing 4%, which is $40,000 a year. In the first year, the market goes down by 10% — your million dollars is now $900,000 plus you took out $40,000. So now you’re at $860,000. The next year, another 10% drop — down another $86,000 plus the $40,000 you withdrew. You have to get massive rises in the stock market to get back to even.”

He continued: “There comes a point of no return where you’re forced to lower your withdrawal. If a million dollars is now $700,000 and you’re taking out $40,000, that’s now a 5.5% withdrawal rate. It’s negative compounding.”

This is one of the core reasons the team at Dupree Financial Group structures retirement portfolios around dividend-paying investments. Tom explained the logic: “Sequence of returns is one reason why we invest for dividends — so that if the sequence of the return is negative, we may not have to be in a position to sell stocks in a down market. We can draw from the dividends.”

For anyone approaching retirement or already drawing income, understanding this risk is essential. Resources from FINRA’s investor education center offer additional background on managing withdrawal strategies and retirement income planning.

Berkshire Hathaway Under Greg Abel: Culture, Buybacks, and Alignment

The episode also covered Berkshire Hathaway’s transition to new leadership under Greg Abel, who took over from Warren Buffett. Abel’s first annual letter to shareholders ran 18 pages — longer than Buffett’s typical letters — and signaled a leadership style rooted in operational detail and cultural preservation.

Mike highlighted two significant announcements. First, Berkshire is resuming share buybacks for the first time since May 2024. Second, Abel is investing 100% of his post-tax salary — roughly $15 million per year — into Berkshire stock personally.

“It’s all about alignment with shareholders,” Mike said. “It fits the Berkshire culture to a T.”

The team also discussed Abel’s emphasis on corporate culture as a lasting competitive advantage. As Abel wrote in his shareholder letter, “Culture is our most treasured asset.” Tom connected that philosophy to Dupree Financial Group’s own approach: “We’ve worked to earn the trust of our clients and we have to keep working to keep that.”

Historical Market Returns After Geopolitical Events

Mike shared data that puts the current conflict in long-term perspective. Looking at one-year returns following major geopolitical events, the numbers are striking: 11.2% after the Korean War, 27% after the Cuban Missile Crisis, 13% after the Six-Day War, 10% after the Gulf War, nearly 27% after the invasion of Iraq, 19% after the Brexit vote, and 43% in the year following COVID-19.

However, Tom added an important caveat for retirees: “What about the 30% drop that came before that? Individuals have to look at sequence of return, not just the long-term averages.”

This distinction between how a static portfolio and a retirement portfolio respond to volatility is central to Dupree Financial Group’s investment philosophy — building portfolios of quality, dividend-paying companies in separately managed accounts where each client owns their individual stocks rather than being pooled into a mutual fund.

Key Takeaways from This Episode

Oil prices have surged nearly 30% due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with WTI crude jumping from $72 to $92 per barrel, creating ripple effects across the global economy.
Stagflation fears are rising as weak jobs data combines with inflationary energy prices, though one report alone doesn’t confirm a trend.
The $3.50 gas price threshold is where consumer spending starts to contract meaningfully — and $4 per gallon is where it gets significantly worse.
Sequence of returns risk is more important than average returns for anyone in retirement or approaching it — early losses combined with withdrawals create negative compounding tha...