The Tom Woods Show, Ep. 2738: Prepare for the Next Round of Money Printing

Guest: Larry Lepard
Air Date: February 26, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Tom Woods hosts investor and sound money advocate Larry Lepard to explore the looming realities of US monetary policy—focusing on government debt, money printing, inflation, and the prospects for gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Lepard discusses his new book, The Big Print, placing current and coming economic crises into historical context, and offers listeners practical strategies for weathering financial turbulence. The tone is urgent but accessible, blending historical analysis, investment advice, and critiques of government monetary policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The "Big Print": Government Debt & Monetary Debasement

[03:14 - 06:21]

• Definition of the 'Big Print':
  Since the US left the gold standard in 1971, government deficits have become routine, often financed by money printing. Lepard sees two major “prints” in recent history:

  • The Great Financial Crisis (GFC; balance sheet from $800B to $3T)
  • COVID-19 response (from $3T to $9T)

  He's projecting another "Big Print" is coming soon:

  “It’s more mathematical fact that they have to print money or else the whole thing collapses.” (06:01, Larry Lepard)

• Debt as Growth Engine:
  The US has used debt-fueled growth as policy; as debt grows, so does the need to service it—a predicament that almost mathematically requires more money creation, or face default/deflation.

• Signs of the Next Round:

  • 2025 saw the Fed introduce "Reserve Management," effectively resuming QE (quantitative easing) by injecting $40B/month into the system.
  • A cycle of tightening (raising rates to fight inflation) is hitting its limits; the risk of deflationary collapse is forcing policymakers to pivot back to easy money policies.

Fed Nominee Kevin Warsh & The Next Money Printing Program

[06:21 - 10:02]

• Warsh as Enigma & Likely Dove:
  Warsh's rhetoric is mixed but Lepard suspects he is being positioned as a "hawk" who'll deliver dovish policies—echoing Nixon's position with China.

  “If you really need to have a dovish policy... wouldn't you want to put a hawk in there to do it?” (06:52, Larry)

• Anticipated Policy Coordination:
  Lepard predicts Treasury and Fed will soon coordinate another program (with a benign name), funneling money to banks for buying government bonds—similar to historical crisis responses.

  • The pressing challenge: Rolling over $9–10 trillion in short-term government debt this year.
  • Interest expense now exceeds $1 trillion, a massive budgetary stressor.

  “If M2 grows, that’s the definition of inflation... and in my opinion, those assets I mentioned earlier, gold, silver, bitcoin, will plow onto new highs.” (09:33, Larry Lepard)

Inflation, Public Perception, and Political Incentives

[10:02 - 13:59]

• Public Misunderstanding:
  Most people underestimate persistent price inflation, expecting prices to return to past levels rather than merely slow their increase.

• Impact on Savings:
  Even with wage increases, savers are punished.

  “If you have managed to have any savings, you are punished for it.” (10:51, Tom Woods)

• Measurement Issues:
  Lepard argues inflation stats are underreported, especially in insurance and other less headline-grabbing items.

• Election Cycles Influence Policy:
  Economic policy is tethered to electoral incentives—maintaining "hot" growth, delaying visible inflation until after key elections.

  “These guys manage month to month, election cycle to election cycle. There's... very little long-term strategic thinking going on.” (13:59, Larry Lepard)

Precious Metals and Bitcoin: Investment Framework

[15:28 - 24:42]

• Timing Fallacies:
  Many investors react emotionally—buying at highs (“I don’t want to be a sucker...”) and refusing to buy at lows (“it’s going in the toilet”).

  “You need to dollar cost average over long periods of time... why do I own these things? Because I think five years from now... gold’s going to be at least 10,000... bitcoin’s going to be at least 120,000.” (18:00, Larry Lepard)

• Gold Mining Stocks vs. Physical Gold

  • Physical gold: No management risk, privacy, estate planning; just a “rock that doesn’t lay eggs.”
  • Miners: Offer leverage to the gold price; historically, outperform the metal (by about 30%), but bring operational and jurisdictional risk.

  “Owning gold coins is a great way to go. The reason you speculate... in gold mining companies is as Buffett says, gold is just a rock... The reason you own the mining companies... they’re like mini central banks, they represent flows of future money.” (21:02, Larry Lepard)

The Silver Squeeze and Structural Supply Constraints

[24:38 - 29:12]

• Paper vs. Physical Silver:
  For every ounce of physical silver, there may be 100+ derivative (“paper”) claims. A rush for delivery could spark a “squeeze.”

  • Industrial demand—especially China’s solar industry and electronics—is rising sharply, increasing real-world scarcity.

  “If everyone who's bought a claim starts saying, please give it to me, the only way to satisfy that imbalance is going to be much higher prices.” (28:20, Larry Lepard)

• Strategic Opportunities:
  Lepard’s fund is aggressively overweight silver miners, expecting outsized returns when market recognizes the new price regime.

Investment Philosophy: Patience and Position Sizing

[29:12 - 30:42]

• Long-Term Wind, Not Short-Term Trading:
  Investors should aim to “catch the major trend” and accept volatility.

  “To have zero in this area [sound money assets], given what we now know, you’re nuts. That’s just like crazy.” (29:59, Larry)

• Suggested Allocation:
  Recommends at least 20% of assets in gold, silver, and bitcoin for most investors.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: Safe Havens and Volatility

[33:36 - 41:32]

• Peter Schiff’s Critique:
  Gold is rising, Bitcoin is flat—How is Bitcoin “digital gold”?
  Lepard:

  • Gold’s safe haven status is established over 5,000 years; Bitcoin is still emerging (1% global ownership).
  • Central banks buy gold, not bitcoin (yet).
  • Bitcoin’s volatility is a function of its nascency, not a flaw.

  “This is just what happens when you have a new monetary standard coming into place... but that does not mean bitcoin is dead.” (34:35, Larry)

• Liquidity and Price Moves:
  Bitcoin is a “fire alarm for liquidity.” When liquidity tightens, it craters; when loosening returns, Bitcoin surges—potentially 4x from here ($60k → $240k) in the next liquidity “print.”

  • If you miss the best 20 days out of 7 years, you make no money in Bitcoin.

  “When it moves, it goes bananas... it’s not going from 60 to 90, it’s going from 60 to 250, you know, in a short period of time.” (41:16, Larry)

MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor: Financial Engineering

[41:50 - 48:41]

• MicroStrategy Model:

  • Issues convertible debt/preferreds to buy more bitcoin. Old-school investors earn an 11% yield (tax deferred), but also take bitcoin risk.
  • Saylor is “running a speculative attack on the US dollar” by turning borrowing power into bitcoin purchases.

  “He’s running a speculative attack on the US dollar. He will sell you preferred, you’ll get an 11% return, they’ll use that to buy bitcoin, and it’s reflexive... there’s something going on here, Tom.” (45:34, Larry)

• Addressing Saylor Critics:
  Lepard dismisses allegations of unsustainability as misunderstanding the power law behind Bitcoin and notes MicroStrategy’s explosive growth.

The “Sound Money” Thesis and Call to Action

[53:43 - 55:15]

• Historical Perspective:
  America’s greatness was built on the gold standard; once abandoned, economic and social malaise grew.

  • Lepard’s book aims to make the case for sound money accessible:

    “I really tried to make it common sense, logical. Hey, you know, we’re all being screwed by this Keynesian monster government... the only way we got a chance of getting out from underneath that being screwed is to get into the sound money stuff.” (53:43, Larry)

• The Goal:
  Widespread adoption of sound money assets (gold, silver, bitcoin) will make individuals more robust and eventually force political change.

Notable Quotes

• On Unavoidable Money Printing:

  “It’s more mathematical fact that they have to print money or else the whole thing collapses.” (06:01, Larry Lepard)

• On Investment Philosophy:

  “You need to dollar cost average over long periods of time... I think five years from now, you’re going to wake up and gold’s going to be at least 10,000... bitcoin’s going to be at least 120,000.” (18:00, Larry Lepard)

• On Bitcoin’s Future:

  “Of course [bitcoin is] volatile. It’s just emerging. This is what happens when you have a new standard emerging.” (36:16, Larry Lepard)

• On MicroStrategy/Saylor:

  “He’s running a speculative attack on the US dollar... there’s something going on here, Tom.” (45:34, Larry Lepard)

• On Inflation and Savings:

  “If you have managed to have any savings, you are punished for it.” (10:51, Tom Woods)

Key Timestamps

• 03:14 – What is “The Big Print”?
• 06:21 – Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, future policy prescriptions
• 10:02 – Public attitudes on inflation, political cycles
• 15:28 – Why investors are “always late” to gold/bitcoin
• 20:47 – Physical gold vs. mining stocks & their leverage
• 24:38 – “Silver squeeze” explained; impact of industrial demand
• 33:36 – Gold vs. Bitcoin as a safe haven, Schiff controversy
• 41:50 – MicroStrategy’s financial engineering and Saylor’s strategy
• 53:43 – The moral and philosophical case for sound money

Recommended Actions & Resources

• Read Larry Lepard’s book: The Big Print (available in every format)
• Watch Lepard’s monetary debasement insurance presentation (linked in episode show notes)
• Consider asset allocation: At least 20% in gold, silver, bitcoin as “monetary debasement insurance”
• Dollar-cost average: Prefer long-term, systematic investments over trading tops and bottoms

Final Thoughts

The episode is an action-oriented masterclass in hard money investing, warning listeners that continued monetary debasement is a mathematical certainty and those not positioned in scarce assets will regret it. Lepard’s approach is steeped in history, analytical yet passionate:

“To have zero in this area, given what we now know, you’re nuts.”
(29:59, Larry Lepard)